meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Egypt’s economy gets its mojo back

14 February 2025

 

Egypt’s economy is in stronger fettle than for at least a couple of years, and there is a sense of optimism about how things will transpire in 2025, even as recent pronouncements from the White House about Gaza weigh on policymakers in Cairo.

In a manifestation of that upbeat economic sentiment, Egypt in January staged a return to the international debt capital market for the first time in two years, with a $2bn issuance that was five-times oversubscribed. That was a straw in the wind that foreign investors’ concerns over the economy are finally abating.

After a battering inflicted on Egypt’s economy last year, when economic growth slipped to 2.4%, reflective of a weak currency, surging inflation and tougher public spending restrictions, analysts see a recovery in play that will drive stronger GDP growth in the coming year.

One key contributor to this improvement is the recovery in Suez Canal receipts, which dropped by about three-quarters last year after the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. That loss of $7bn in revenues shaved off more than a percentage point from Egypt’s overall GDP growth rate, noted Moody’s Investors Service.

Growth dynamics are now improving, even if events in the region remain in flux. According to Capital Economics, there was a rise in real GDP growth to 3.5% in Q3 2024, up from 2.4% in Q2 2024. The manufacturing, transport and storage, and finance sectors were the key drivers of that improvement.

Egyptian banks are feeling the positive impact. Credit growth is reviving, with bank lending to the non-government sector growing by 2.9% in October 2024 – the fastest pace in two years.

Operating conditions for Egyptian lenders will continue improve in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings, underpinned by a sharp fall in inflation, along with an expected broadly stable currency, improved investor confidence and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions. This should also support lower interest rates as inflation declines.

Foreign capital injection

Douglas Winslow, senior director at Fitch Ratings, says the improvement in market sentiment follows a combination of factors and is also seen in the return of non-resident inflows totalling more than $10bn into the domestic debt market since early last year.

Egypt's external finances have benefitted from Gulf state interventions, notably the UAE sovereign wealth fund ADQ’s major foreign investment in the Mediterranean resort of Ras El-Hekma, which was announced in 2024.

That deal injected $24bn of new foreign currency into Egypt, the remaining $11bn converting existing UAE foreign currency deposits held at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has also committed to invest $5bn in Egypt’s economy. 

Such investments, eased by the weaker Egyptian pound – rendering assets more affordable – will also help to address Egypt’s dollar shortages, and assuage residual investor concerns about default risk. 

“The huge Ras El-Hekma investment was a very important factor in the turnaround, and Fitch projects further foreign direct investment (FDI) of $7bn a year above the pre-ADQ position. The lion’s share of that is GCC investment,” says Winslow.

The $24bn of fresh foreign currency puts Egypt in a better place to move to a more flexible exchange rate. 

The combination of these factors has enabled a rapid rebuilding of Egypt’s external coffers, which was the key risk facing near-term external financing. Fitch forecasts FDI to average $16.5bn across the fiscal year ending June 2025 and fiscal year 2026, with new investment from Saudi Arabia having an impact.

Alongside the Gulf support has come multilateral financing, including from Europe. Since March 2024, an $8bn IMF Extended Fund Facility and a €7.4bn ($7.64bn) three-year EU support package have been unlocked.

Together, these capital injections will also help cover Egypt’s current account deficit, which widened to 5.4% of GDP in 2024. Inflation is also headed in the right direction, after reaching a peak of 36% in February 2024. The expectation is that inflation will have more than halved by the end of financial year 2025-26.

Strong growth upside

Looking ahead, the more optimistic prognosis foresees GDP growth accelerating to 5% in the current fiscal year. Others are more circumspect, noting the recent recovery in Suez Canal receipts is very partial and that the government still needs to implement structural economic reform measures.

Fitch Rating’s forecast for GDP growth is 4% for fiscal year 2025. A pickup in growth is already detectable.

“Growth was 3.5% in Q1 of the current fiscal year and we expect it accelerates to just above 5% in fiscal year 2026, close to our assessment of the potential and rate of the Egyptian economy. That’s partly due to further falling inflation and a positive impact on real income,” says Winslow.

Despite these stronger macro metrics, the wider credit assessment is still constrained, due to relatively weak external finances. While the central bank can call upon larger foreign exchange reserves to support the currency, Capital Economics has warned that a return to a heavily managed exchange rate would worry investors and may also call into question IMF and Gulf willingness to provide further financing.

“The IMF programme does contain some wider structural reform measures to improve private sector competitiveness, but in our view, they're not particularly far-reaching, and we're not seeing really sizeable momentum in terms of delivering in this area,” Winslow says.

There is a need for measures to stimulate private sector growth and also to improve the competitiveness of the economy, support the trade balance and reduce the current deficit over the medium term. 

“A better track record of ongoing political commitment to curbing off-budget spending pressures would also help Egypt’s rating,” says Winslow.

As to the potential for regional events to upset things, Egypt's credit fundamentals are at least better insulated from further geopolitical stress.

This, in turn, should give comfort to commercial banks in Egypt. Fitch upgraded the long-term issuer default ratings of all rated banks in November 2024, following the upgrade of Egypt’s sovereign rating.

There are other things that will need to be seen for the Egyptian economy’s recovery to sustain itself over the long-term.

“From a credit perspective, the composition of growth is equally important,” says Winslow.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that very large government off-budget megaprojects have not just led to weaker public finances, they've also contributed to external financing stress. So, what's particularly important is that the recent steps to try and better monitor and contain these off-budget infrastructure projects continues.”

MEED’s March special report on Egypt also includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Egypt is in the eye of Trump’s Gaza storm
> POWER & WATER: Egypt’s utility projects keep pace
> CONSTRUCTION: Coastal city scheme is a boon to Egypt construction

READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW

Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.

Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:

> WATER & WASTEWATER: Water projects require innovation
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13385133/main.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Syria seeks interest for $1.16bn Euphrates dam

    7 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Syria’s Ministry of Energy has invited expressions of interest (EoIs) for the development of the Halabiyeh-Zalabiyeh dam project on the Euphrates River.

    The project has an indicative total cost of $1.16bn, according to the ministry’s EoI document. This includes $433.7m for the dam and hydropower plant and $729.6m for the pumped-storage power plant (PSP). 

    The scheme includes an 81MW hydroelectric power plant and a pumped-storage facility with a capacity of up to 1,200MW. The project will also include the construction of the dam and associated water-storage infrastructure. 

    The ministry seeks interest from qualified local and international companies, investors and other entities. Interested parties can participate in studies, design, financing, construction, and operation and maintenance of the project. 

    The ministry is considering several potential development structures, including build-own-operate-transfer, build-operate-transfer and public-private partnership models, as well as an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) structure. It has said it is also open to proposals covering consultancy and financing services.

    The EoI covers several stages, including pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, financing and bankability studies, detailed and executive design, EPC execution, and operation and maintenance.

    The technical specifications envisage a 23-metre-high dam with a reservoir storage capacity of about 219 million cubic metres.

    The hydropower plant will have three generating units, while the 1,200MW PSP will have 3.5 hours of storage capacity and four reversible units.

    The deadline for submitting EoIs is 10 November, with enquiries accepted until 26 October.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20336025/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Arada launches UAE construction arm with Roberts

    7 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    UAE developer Arada has integrated Australian contractor Roberts into the UAE market as part of its wider business strategy.

    Arada acquired Roberts in 2025 after entering the Australian market. The tier-one contractor delivers projects in the healthcare, education, commercial, residential, hospitality, industrial, life sciences and defence sectors.

    At the time of the acquisition, Arada said it planned to invest about $20m in Roberts. The investment is intended to give the developer greater control over the delivery of its Australian projects and support Roberts’ expansion into markets including the UAE.

    Arada has said it could invest up to $100m in Roberts’ expansion into new sectors and markets. The company is targeting $1bn in annual revenue from Roberts by 2028.

    Roberts has established a UAE office, with a head office team already in place. Arada said the contractor’s capabilities will support the delivery of its high-rise residential and social infrastructure projects.

    The contractor’s first UAE project will be phase two of Arada Central Business District, a commercial development within Aljada in Sharjah. Arada is developing the AED35bn ($9.5bn) mixed-use project.

    Roberts is also providing preconstruction services for several Arada projects in Dubai and Sharjah, ahead of starting site work.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20334926/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Expo Riyadh sets October deadline for Saudi Arabia pavilion

    7 October 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has set a deadline of 25 October for bids for a contract to build the Saudi Arabia pavilion.

    The tender was issued on 19 May, with an initial bid submission deadline of 26 August.

    The pavilion is a major asset located within the KSA District on the eastern side of the Expo 2030 Riyadh masterplan, in the Loop of Nations district.

    Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

    Last month, MEED reported that ERC had received contractor interest on 14 September for a contract to design and build a convention centre in the site’s Collaboration District.

    ERC also tendered a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the Expo site, as MEED exclusively reported on 8 September.

    These areas are divided into five precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 square metres.

    Also in September, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City awarded a design-and-build contract to construct a new metro station serving the Expo 2030 site.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Al-Yamama Company.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle (EV) charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

    That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, as well as EV charging stations.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site will be near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20334856/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait on track to hit oil production target

    7 October 2026

    Kuwait is on track to meet its target of having 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil production capacity by 2035, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) chief executive Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah.

    Al-Sabah also said Kuwait is on course to increase non-associated gas production to 2 billion cubic feet a day by 2040.

    His comments come amid an ongoing crisis in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector linked to the regional conflict that began when the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    The subsequent war has significantly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial export route for Kuwaiti crude oil.

    Kuwait is currently producing around 2 million b/d of oil, down from 2.6 million b/d before the US and Israel attack.

    Speaking at a conference in London, Al-Sabah said: “We have the capacity to go back up to our current maximum sustainable capacity of 3 million b/d, if we have the export routes available, and this comes down to the ability to move oil through the Strait.”

    KPC is investing $9bn-$10bn a year in capital expenditure to meet its oil and gas production goals, according to Al-Sabah.

    He said: “We are doing this because we recognise that it is our hydrocarbons that will be most in demand a decade from now, and two decades from now – in fact, for the rest of our lifetimes.”

    Project Seef

    KPC is pushing ahead with the Al-Seef project, which focuses on developing three large offshore oil discoveries, Al-Sabah said.

    The offshore fields are known as Nokhatha, Julaia and Jazza. The development was first announced in February this year, about two weeks before the US and Israel attack on Iran.

    Al-Sabah said KPC is continuing with the project and believes the three fields collectively hold more than 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

    He said: “We are asking international oil companies to partner with us to develop those resources under an operating services contract.

    “So, we’re moving ahead according to the exact same schedule that we had put together even before the war began.”

    Al-Sabah did not say which international oil companies KPC has approached to help develop the three offshore fields.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20315147/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Roshn plans new flagship development in Riyadh

    7 October 2026

     

    Saudi developer Roshn Group plans to develop its next flagship scheme in north Riyadh, spanning an area of 13.7 square kilometres. 

    Roshn is looking to appoint lead design consultants to deliver detailed design, tender documentation and construction documents across the scheme, known as Plot 1.

    The scope covers all infrastructure, utilities, public realm works and site adaptation of Roshn’s residential prototypes, split across two work packages.

    Part 1 covers phases A, B and E, which collectively span about 7.8 million square metres (sq m) and will comprise 17,000 units.

    Part 2 includes phases C and D, which will span about 4.7 million sq m and comprise more than 15,000 units.

    The development is bordered by Expo 2030, King Abdulaziz Park, the Sports Innovation Lab Zone and the National Housing Company-developed Khozam district.

    It will be a residential-led mixed-use development, also featuring retail, offices, hospitality, education and civic facilities.

    Connectivity is a core plank of the masterplan, with two metro stations planned: one at the existing Line 4/proposed Line 7 interchange and another dedicated Line 7 stop. The scheme would also be served by the future Qiddiya high-speed rail and a possible King Salman Road diversion.

    Plot 1 builds on Roshn’s existing footprint in the capital, notably the multi-phase Sedra community, as the developer expands beyond single-family housing into mixed-use districts under its Roshn 3.0 strategy.

    Last month, Roshn Group announced that it had signed a preliminary agreement with Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) Saudi, the local subsidiary of Egyptian developer Talaat Moustafa Group, to establish a joint venture to explore and develop a mixed-use project in Riyadh.

    Under the agreement, TMG will hold a 51% stake in the joint company, while Roshn Group will hold 49%.

    The agreement sets out a framework for the two groups to assess a potential partnership for the project’s phased development, which is planned as a residential-led, mixed-use community featuring retail, commercial, hospitality, leisure, healthcare and education facilities, alongside parks and public spaces.

    Roshn Group and TMG Saudi plan to conduct detailed master planning and develop the project’s business case.

    Preliminary studies indicate the development could include more than 55,000 residential units across all phases.

    Roshn Group did not disclose the exact project location in its announcement.

    As a Public Investment Fund-owned developer, Roshn remains a key vehicle for delivering Vision 2030’s housing programme, which targets 70% Saudi home ownership, alongside the kingdom’s wider quality-of-life and economic diversification agendas.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19786131/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal