meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Egypt’s economy gets its mojo back

14 February 2025

 

Egypt’s economy is in stronger fettle than for at least a couple of years, and there is a sense of optimism about how things will transpire in 2025, even as recent pronouncements from the White House about Gaza weigh on policymakers in Cairo.

In a manifestation of that upbeat economic sentiment, Egypt in January staged a return to the international debt capital market for the first time in two years, with a $2bn issuance that was five-times oversubscribed. That was a straw in the wind that foreign investors’ concerns over the economy are finally abating.

After a battering inflicted on Egypt’s economy last year, when economic growth slipped to 2.4%, reflective of a weak currency, surging inflation and tougher public spending restrictions, analysts see a recovery in play that will drive stronger GDP growth in the coming year.

One key contributor to this improvement is the recovery in Suez Canal receipts, which dropped by about three-quarters last year after the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. That loss of $7bn in revenues shaved off more than a percentage point from Egypt’s overall GDP growth rate, noted Moody’s Investors Service.

Growth dynamics are now improving, even if events in the region remain in flux. According to Capital Economics, there was a rise in real GDP growth to 3.5% in Q3 2024, up from 2.4% in Q2 2024. The manufacturing, transport and storage, and finance sectors were the key drivers of that improvement.

Egyptian banks are feeling the positive impact. Credit growth is reviving, with bank lending to the non-government sector growing by 2.9% in October 2024 – the fastest pace in two years.

Operating conditions for Egyptian lenders will continue improve in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings, underpinned by a sharp fall in inflation, along with an expected broadly stable currency, improved investor confidence and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions. This should also support lower interest rates as inflation declines.

Foreign capital injection

Douglas Winslow, senior director at Fitch Ratings, says the improvement in market sentiment follows a combination of factors and is also seen in the return of non-resident inflows totalling more than $10bn into the domestic debt market since early last year.

Egypt's external finances have benefitted from Gulf state interventions, notably the UAE sovereign wealth fund ADQ’s major foreign investment in the Mediterranean resort of Ras El-Hekma, which was announced in 2024.

That deal injected $24bn of new foreign currency into Egypt, the remaining $11bn converting existing UAE foreign currency deposits held at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has also committed to invest $5bn in Egypt’s economy. 

Such investments, eased by the weaker Egyptian pound – rendering assets more affordable – will also help to address Egypt’s dollar shortages, and assuage residual investor concerns about default risk. 

“The huge Ras El-Hekma investment was a very important factor in the turnaround, and Fitch projects further foreign direct investment (FDI) of $7bn a year above the pre-ADQ position. The lion’s share of that is GCC investment,” says Winslow.

The $24bn of fresh foreign currency puts Egypt in a better place to move to a more flexible exchange rate. 

The combination of these factors has enabled a rapid rebuilding of Egypt’s external coffers, which was the key risk facing near-term external financing. Fitch forecasts FDI to average $16.5bn across the fiscal year ending June 2025 and fiscal year 2026, with new investment from Saudi Arabia having an impact.

Alongside the Gulf support has come multilateral financing, including from Europe. Since March 2024, an $8bn IMF Extended Fund Facility and a €7.4bn ($7.64bn) three-year EU support package have been unlocked.

Together, these capital injections will also help cover Egypt’s current account deficit, which widened to 5.4% of GDP in 2024. Inflation is also headed in the right direction, after reaching a peak of 36% in February 2024. The expectation is that inflation will have more than halved by the end of financial year 2025-26.

Strong growth upside

Looking ahead, the more optimistic prognosis foresees GDP growth accelerating to 5% in the current fiscal year. Others are more circumspect, noting the recent recovery in Suez Canal receipts is very partial and that the government still needs to implement structural economic reform measures.

Fitch Rating’s forecast for GDP growth is 4% for fiscal year 2025. A pickup in growth is already detectable.

“Growth was 3.5% in Q1 of the current fiscal year and we expect it accelerates to just above 5% in fiscal year 2026, close to our assessment of the potential and rate of the Egyptian economy. That’s partly due to further falling inflation and a positive impact on real income,” says Winslow.

Despite these stronger macro metrics, the wider credit assessment is still constrained, due to relatively weak external finances. While the central bank can call upon larger foreign exchange reserves to support the currency, Capital Economics has warned that a return to a heavily managed exchange rate would worry investors and may also call into question IMF and Gulf willingness to provide further financing.

“The IMF programme does contain some wider structural reform measures to improve private sector competitiveness, but in our view, they're not particularly far-reaching, and we're not seeing really sizeable momentum in terms of delivering in this area,” Winslow says.

There is a need for measures to stimulate private sector growth and also to improve the competitiveness of the economy, support the trade balance and reduce the current deficit over the medium term. 

“A better track record of ongoing political commitment to curbing off-budget spending pressures would also help Egypt’s rating,” says Winslow.

As to the potential for regional events to upset things, Egypt's credit fundamentals are at least better insulated from further geopolitical stress.

This, in turn, should give comfort to commercial banks in Egypt. Fitch upgraded the long-term issuer default ratings of all rated banks in November 2024, following the upgrade of Egypt’s sovereign rating.

There are other things that will need to be seen for the Egyptian economy’s recovery to sustain itself over the long-term.

“From a credit perspective, the composition of growth is equally important,” says Winslow.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that very large government off-budget megaprojects have not just led to weaker public finances, they've also contributed to external financing stress. So, what's particularly important is that the recent steps to try and better monitor and contain these off-budget infrastructure projects continues.”

MEED’s March special report on Egypt also includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Egypt is in the eye of Trump’s Gaza storm
> POWER & WATER: Egypt’s utility projects keep pace
> CONSTRUCTION: Coastal city scheme is a boon to Egypt construction

READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW

Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.

Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:

> WATER & WASTEWATER: Water projects require innovation
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13385133/main.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai approves metro extension to Al-Maktoum airport

    10 November 2026

    Dubai’s Executive Council has approved a project to extend the Dubai Metro’s Route 2020 to Al-Maktoum International Airport City, with passenger services scheduled to begin operations in 2031.

    Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, announced the decision following a council meeting held during the UAE Government Annual Meetings 2026.

    The rail project forms part of a package of strategic schemes worth over AED11bn ($3bn) approved by the council.

    The wider approvals include a comprehensive framework to upgrade community facilities and public services by 2040, with priority given to residential communities for UAE citizens.

    The project approval follows the procurement of detailed design work for the rail link. MEED exclusively reported in September that Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) had awarded US-based engineering consultancy Aecom the design contract for the Route 2020 extension.

    The planned extension will run for about 3 kilometres from the existing Expo 2020 terminus station to connect directly with the West Terminal of Al-Maktoum International airport. The scheme will add two new stations to the network.

    The existing Route 2020 corridor is a 15km spur that branches off the Dubai Metro Red Line at Jebel Ali station. It comprises 11.8km of elevated viaduct and 3.2km of underground track, serving five elevated and two underground stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21301168/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt seeks to accelerate gas pipeline project with Libya

    10 November 2026

    Egypt aims to accelerate a range of energy projects with Libya, including gas pipeline links, according to a statement from the Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

    Other projects include a scheme to refine Libyan crude in Egypt and an electricity interconnection.

    Abdelatty’s comments came in a ministry statement after a meeting with Libya’s acting oil and gas minister, Khalifa Abdulsadek, in the Libyan capital of Tripoli.

    Egypt is currently trying to address an energy squeeze that has escalated ​due to elevated global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices since the ​start of the US-Israeli war on Iran in February of this year.

    In his statement, Abdelatty called ‌for ⁠cooperation on petroleum products and the completion of projects to refine Libyan oil in Egypt and re-export ​it.

    He also said that Abdulsadek would ​visit ⁠Cairo soon to continue technical talks with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

    The ⁠statement ​did not provide ​details on costs or the status of the projects.

    Plans for new gas pipeline links with Libya are just one of several ambitious gas pipeline plans Egypt is pursuing.

    In October, the Italian oil and gas company Eni signed the main engineering, procurement, construction and drilling contracts for a project to export gas from reserves in Cyprus using a major pipeline to Egypt.

    The project includes contracts with several companies that will develop infrastructure in both Egypt and Cyprus.

    The awards included a $170m contract won by Egypt’s Petrojet for a new onshore gas pipeline in Egypt that will help transport gas to Egypt’s Damietta LNG facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273777/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Omani company signs Kuwait drilling contract

    10 November 2026

    Oman’s MBPS has signed a drilling rig contract worth $127.3m with state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    Under the terms of the deal, MBPS will supply and operate three newly built 1,000-horsepower land rigs for drilling and workover operations, according to a company statement.

    The UAE-based oil field services company Adnoc Drilling is a majority shareholder in MBPS.

    The chief executive of MBPS, Salim Al-Harthy, said: “This is another important milestone for MBPS and a strong reflection of KOC’s confidence in our capabilities.

    “It further strengthens our presence in Kuwait and our commitment to delivering safe, reliable and efficient drilling and workover services across the region.”

    He : “My sincere appreciation to KOC for their continued trust, and to our MBPS team for their hard work and dedication in making this possible.”

    In October last year, KOC said it planned to spend KD1.2bn ($3.92bn) on its exploration drilling programme through 2030.

    The spending was part of a KD9.8bn budget, the company’s biggest ever, allocated for drilling and maintenance of up to 6,193 wells by the end of this decade.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273731/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Adnoc Drilling wins $315m Kuwait offshore rig deals

    10 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) subsidiary, Adnoc Drilling, has been selected for two offshore drilling rig contracts in Kuwait with a combined maximum value of KD96.55m ($315m), according to documents published by Kuwait’s Official Gazette.

    The Higher Purchasing Committee of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has given approval for its subsidiary Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) to award the contracts to the Abu Dhabi-listed drilling contractor after Adnoc Drilling submitted the lowest compliant bids.

    While the maximum combined contract value has been confirmed as KD96.55m ($315m), the individual contract values, rig identities, durations and expected commencement dates have not been disclosed.

    The approval comes as Kuwait moves to expand offshore exploration and development following a series of discoveries in its territorial waters.

    It is currently unclear how Kuwait will provide security for its planned offshore oil and gas projects in the Gulf, adding uncertainty to the outlook for these plans.

    On 5 October, KPC chief executive Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah reiterated the company’s commitment to developing three major offshore oil discoveries in the region.

    KPC initially launched the Al-Seef project to develop the three fields in February, just weeks before the US and Israel attacked Iran, triggering a regional war that has sparked a crisis in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector.

    The regional conflict has seriously disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for Kuwaiti oil.

    The war has also led to dozens of attacks on Kuwaiti oil and gas infrastructure, with at least one causing damage to a Kuwaiti offshore platform.

    This attack took place on 12 July, when a drone struck a KOC offshore drilling platform in Kuwaiti territorial waters, causing damage to the platform and injuring one worker.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21273678/main2430.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Aramco-backed firm tenders logistics hub expansion

    9 November 2026

     

    Asmo, the logistics joint venture of Saudi Aramco and DHL Supply Chain, has set a 15 November deadline for a contract to expand the logistics complex at King Salman Energy Park (Spark) in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    The logistics hub will add over 124,000 square metres (sq m) at Spark.

    Al-Khobar-based engineering firm House of Consulting Office is the project consultant.

    The tender for the expansion works comes shortly after Asmo awarded an estimated SR820m ($218m) contract to build the logistics complex’s first phase in May this year.

    The overall project will feature a 43,000 sq m, temperature-controlled Grade A warehouse; more than 3,000 sq m of offices and staff amenities; 5,300 sq m dedicated to chemicals storage; and an open yard covering about 1.2 million sq m.

    Asmo signed an agreement with Bahrain‑headquartered Arcapita Group Holdings in February to deliver the project at Spark.

    Planned for large-scale industrial use, the site is expected to incorporate advanced warehouse and building management systems, end-to-end digital connectivity, automation and robotics.

    It will also be developed in line with internationally recognised sustainability standards, featuring solar photovoltaic readiness, electric-vehicle charging infrastructure and a target of Leed Gold certification.

    The development aims to support the next stage of Saudi Arabia’s logistics and supply chain expansion.

    Under the deal structure, Arcapita will provide funding and retain ownership of the asset, while Asmo will develop the facility and then lease and operate it under a 22-year occupational lease.

    According to a statement, “the scheme will be executed via a forward-funding model, underscoring a long-term commitment to national infrastructure”.

    Asmo added that this will be its first purpose-built logistics centre and one of four strategic locations planned to anchor its nationwide logistics network, aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Saudi Vision 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21267403/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal