Related Articles

• 
  Saudi real estate to surge in 2026

  29 December 2025

  

   

  This package also includes: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals
  Deals worth $63.1bn were signed at the Cityscape Global 2025 property show in Riyadh

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  After nearly a decade of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) taking on the delivery burden of the kingdom’s largest projects, Riyadh is now turning to private sector real estate developers to help deliver its ambitions. 

  The shift reflects both opportunity and necessity. The PIF-led model has enabled Saudi Arabia to fast-track its gigaprojects and anchor Vision 2030’s transformation objectives. Riyadh is now looking for the private sector to maintain this momentum.

  Opening the market

  To encourage more real estate activity, the kingdom’s long-awaited foreign ownership law was approved in August 2025. It will come into force in early 2026 after a 180-day implementation period. It introduces a comprehensive structure for non-Saudi ownership of real estate.

  The law allows non-Saudi individuals and companies to own, lease and use property in designated areas, subject to restrictions by type and location. Foreign residents can own one home for personal use outside restricted zones, excluding Mecca and Medina. 

  Meanwhile, companies with foreign shareholders can acquire real estate across the kingdom, including in Mecca and Medina, provided it is for business purposes or employee housing and in line with financial regulations. 

  The intention is to help Saudi Arabia tap into international property demand – as Dubai has done – to boost foreign direct investment (FDI). 

  In 2024, the kingdom attracted SR119bn ($31.7bn) in FDI, up 24% year-on-year and 37% above earlier estimates, but still short of the $100bn annual target for 2030. 

  Manufacturing led inflows with SR35bn, followed by wholesale and retail trade, construction and financial and insurance services. Real estate did not feature among the top-performing sectors, underlining the potential for growth.

  Land and finance

  While the foreign ownership law focuses on demand, the revised white land tax regime, effective from 22 August 2025, targets supply. The law aims to curb land hoarding, boost urban land availability and support development priorities.

  Key provisions include an annual white land tax of up to 10%, with zones graded between 10% and 2.5%; a vacant building fee of up to 5%, potentially rising to 10%, subject to approval by Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers; and the classification of cities according to supply-demand conditions and development needs. 

  The white land tax is likely to have a dual effect. It should prompt some landowners to bring idle plots into development, sell to active developers or enter into partnerships, thereby alleviating a long-standing structural bottleneck in Riyadh and other major cities. At the same time, it introduces a new cost for holding undeveloped land, which will need to be priced into feasibility studies and could initially push some asking prices higher as owners seek to pass on part of the burden.

  Over time, if enforcement is seen as consistent and predictable, the white land tax could help normalise more active land markets and support the private sector’s expanded delivery role. But 2026 is likely to be a transitional year, with a mix of opportunistic sales, legal challenges and recalibrated land valuations.

  The government has also intervened directly in the rental market, most notably with a rent freeze in Riyadh. 

  In response to double-digit rent increases in some districts, driven by non-oil growth, gigaprojects and corporate relocations, the authorities have imposed a five-year suspension of annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in the capital.

  For tenants, the freeze offers immediate relief and increases predictability, particularly for middle-income households and small businesses exposed to volatile rents. It also serves as a counterweight to fears that opening the market to foreign buyers in 2026 will drive another surge in rental prices.

  For investors and developers, however, the impact is more challenging. Compressed rental growth in Riyadh reduces the upside on income-producing assets, especially where financing structures assumed steady nominal increases. 

  Running alongside these regulatory reforms is a quieter but significant development in real estate finance: the launch of Saudi Arabia’s first residential mortgage-backed securities by PIF subsidiary the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company. This new asset class aims to enhance liquidity in the housing finance market and diversify investment opportunities.

  In the longer term, a thriving, diversified real estate sector underpinned by such instruments can support the development of a broader ecosystem of mortgage issuers, servicers and investors, reducing systemic risk and broadening access to housing finance.

  As the kingdom takes deliberate steps to open its market to foreign buyers, mobilise idle land, protect tenants and strengthen financial infrastructure, much will depend on execution. If the new foreign ownership rules are applied effectively, 2026 could mark the start of a more sustainable, private sector-led growth phase. If not, uncertainty could dampen the very investment the reforms aim to attract. 

  READ: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals

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  Colin Foreman
• 
  Navigating financial markets amid geopolitical fragmentation

  28 December 2025

  

   

  As we move towards 2026, geopolitical fragmentation is no longer a background risk that occasionally disrupts markets.

  It has become a defining feature of the global financial landscape. Shifting alliances, persistent regional tensions, sanctions and the reconfiguration of supply chains are reshaping how capital flows, how liquidity behaves and how confidence is formed.

  For firms operating in the Middle East, this does not simply mean preparing for more volatility. It means operating in a system where the underlying rules are evolving.

  For much of the past three decades, businesses and investors worked within a broadly convergent global framework. Trade expanded, financial markets deepened and policy coordination – while imperfect – created a sense of predictability. That environment has changed.

  Today, economic decisions are increasingly influenced by strategic alignment, security considerations and political resilience. Markets still function, but they do so in a more fragmented and less forgiving way.

  Shifting landscape

  One of the most important consequences of this shift is that risk no longer travels along familiar paths. In the past, geopolitical events were often treated as temporary shocks layered onto an otherwise stable system.

  Today, they shape the system itself. Trade flows are influenced as much by political compatibility as by cost efficiency. Supply chains, once optimised for speed and scale, are reorganising into regional or allied clusters. Financial markets respond not only to data, but to narratives about stability, alignment and long-term credibility.

  This change places greater pressure on firms that rely on historical relationships to guide decisions. Models built on past correlations – between interest rates and equity markets, or between energy prices and regional growth – are less reliable when markets move between different regimes. The challenge is not simply higher volatility, but the fact that correlations themselves can shift quickly.

  Monetary policy adds a second layer of complexity. Major central banks are no longer moving in step. The US, Europe and parts of Asia face different inflation dynamics and political constraints, leading to diverging interest-rate paths.

  For the GCC, where currencies are largely pegged to the US dollar, this divergence has direct consequences. Local financial conditions are closely tied to decisions taken by the Federal Reserve, even when regional economic conditions follow a different cycle.

  This matters because funding costs, liquidity availability and hedging conditions are shaped by global rather than local forces. When US policy remains tight, dollar liquidity becomes more selective. When expectations shift abruptly, market depth can disappear quickly.

  For firms with international exposure, long-term investment plans, or reliance on external financing, these dynamics require careful management. They cannot be treated as secondary macro considerations.

  Energy markets further complicate the picture. The Middle East remains central to global energy supply, which means geopolitical events often interact with oil prices and financial conditions at the same time.

  When shifts in energy expectations coincide with changes in global interest-rate sentiment, liquidity conditions can tighten rapidly. This interaction is well known in academic research on fixed exchange-rate systems, but its practical implications are often underestimated in corporate planning.

  Expanding vulnerabilities

  These dynamics expose clear vulnerabilities. Concentrated supply chains are more susceptible to disruption. Financing structures dependent on continuous market access are more exposed to sudden repricing. Risk management approaches that assume stable relationships between assets are more likely to disappoint. Operational risks – particularly in technology and data – are increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations rather than purely technical ones.

  At the same time, the region enters 2026 from a position of relative strength. GCC economies benefit from fiscal buffers, long-term investment programmes and a growing perception of stability compared to other parts of the world. In an environment where uncertainty is widespread, predictability itself becomes valuable. Capital increasingly seeks jurisdictions that combine economic ambition with institutional credibility.

  The question, therefore, is not whether opportunities exist, but whether firms are prepared to capture them responsibly. This requires a shift in how future risks are assessed and embedded into decision-making. Linear forecasts and static plans are insufficient when the environment itself can change state. Scenario thinking must evolve beyond optimistic and pessimistic cases to reflect different combinations of geopolitical alignment, monetary conditions, and supply-chain stability. These scenarios should inform capital allocation, not sit in strategy documents.

  Liquidity and risk management discipline also become central. In both trading and corporate finance, experience shows that many failures stem not from being wrong on direction, but from being overexposed when conditions change. Scaling risk to market conditions, maintaining funding flexibility and understanding how quickly liquidity can evaporate are essential practices. This is as true for corporate balance sheets as it is for trading books.

  Operational resilience must be viewed through the same lens. Supply-chain redundancy, cybersecurity preparedness and data governance are no longer purely operational concerns. They influence financial stability, investor confidence and regulatory trust. In a fragmented world, operational disruptions can quickly translate into financial and reputational damage.

  Facing the future

  As we approach 2026, leadership in the Middle East faces a clear test. The global environment is unlikely to become simpler or more predictable. Firms that continue to rely on assumptions shaped by a different era will find themselves reacting rather than positioning. Those that invest in disciplined risk management, flexible planning and operational resilience will be better placed to navigate uncertainty and to turn volatility into strategic advantage.

  In this environment, risk management is not an obstacle to growth. It is the framework that makes sustainable growth possible.

  Ultimately – and this is an often overlooked critical point – none of these adjustments, whether in scenario planning, liquidity discipline, or operational resilience, can be effective without the right human capital in place. 

  Geopolitical fragmentation and financial volatility are not risks that can be fully addressed through models or policies alone. They require informed judgement, institutional memory and the ability to interpret weak signals before they become material threats or missed opportunities. 

  Firms that succeed in this environment will be those that deliberately invest in corporate knowledge: building internal capabilities where possible and complementing them with external expertise where necessary. This means involving professionals with the right background, cross-market experience and a proven, proactive approach to risk awareness and governance. 

  In a fragmented world, competitive advantage increasingly depends not only on capital or strategy, but on the quality of people entrusted with understanding risk, challenging assumptions and guiding decision-making under uncertainty.

  

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• 
  Oman’s growth forecast points upwards

  24 December 2025

  Download the PDF

  

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  MEED’s January 2026 report on Oman includes:

  > COMMENT: Oman steadies growth with strategic restraint
  > GVT & ECONOMY: Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns
  > BANKING: Oman banks feel impact of stronger economy
  > OIL & GAS: LNG goals galvanise Oman’s oil and gas sector
  > POWER & WATER: Oman prepares for a wave of IPP awards
  > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in construction sector

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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  MEED Editorial
• 
  December 2025: Data drives regional projects

  23 December 2025

  Click here to download the PDF

  Includes: Top inward FDI locations by project volume | Brent spot price | Construction output

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  MEED’s January 2026 report on Oman includes:

  > COMMENT: Oman steadies growth with strategic restraint
  > ECONOMY: Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns
  > BANKING: Oman banks feel impact of stronger economy
  > OIL & GAS: LNG goals galvanise Oman’s oil and gas sector
  > POWER & WATER: Oman prepares for a wave of IPP awards
  > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in construction sector

  To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

  https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15306140/main.gif

  MEED Editorial
• 
  Local firm bids lowest for Kuwait substation deal

  22 December 2025

  The local Al-Ahleia Switchgear Company has submitted the lowest price of KD33.9m ($110.3m) for a contract to build a 400/132/11 kV substation at the South Surra township for Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW).

  The bid was marginally lower than the two other offers of KD35.1m and KD35.5m submitted respectively by Saudi Arabia’s National Contracting Company (NCC) and India’s Larsen & Toubro.

  PAHW is expected to take about three months to evaluate the prices before selecting the successful contractor.

  The project is one of several transmission and distribution projects either out to bid or recently awarded by Kuwait’s main affordable housing client.

  This year alone, it has awarded two contracts worth more than $100m for cable works at its 1Z, 2Z, 3Z and 4Z 400kV substations at Al-Istiqlal City, and two deals totalling just under $280m for the construction of seven 132/11kV substations in the same township.

  Most recently, it has tendered two contracts to build seven 132/11kV main substations at its affordable housing project, west of Kuwait City. The bid deadline for the two deals covering the MS-01 through to MS-08 substations is 8 January.

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  Edward James