meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 must deliver on promises

25 October 2023

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

 

There is a good chance that the average delegate attending the 2023 Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28) will skip visiting or driving past the key clean energy installations in the UAE.

These include the wind turbines on Sir Baniyas Island, 9.5 kilometres (km) off Jebel Dhana in Abu Dhabi; the $29bn Barakah nuclear power plant in Al-Gharbia, close to the border with Saudi Arabia; the solar farms in Sweihan and Al-Dhafra in Abu Dhabi; and Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum Solar Park, 50km from Expo City, the venue for Cop28.

For many delegates, a trip to these sites is unnecessary. They are aware of the UAE’s green credentials, with the country having ploughed billions of dollars into investments aimed at decarbonising its economy, and more still to come.

For others, however, a single statistic undermines the positive environmental steps that the world’s sixth-largest crude exporter has taken. State-backed energy firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) plans to increase its oil production capacity from 4 million barrels a day (b/d) to 5 million b/d by 2027.

Double-edged strategy

Critics, who include the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, have warned of the dangers of a double-edged energy transition strategy. Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber, managing director and CEO of Adnoc, prefers to describe such an approach as pragmatic.

An agreement requiring developed countries to provide loss and damage funding to countries most affected by climate change was a key takeaway from last year’s UN climate change conference in Egypt (Cop27). However, there was a lack of progress on the phasing down or out of fossil fuels.

The onus is now on the UAE, whose energy transition approach embraces energy sources from fossil fuels to green hydrogen, to deliver a more productive conference.

The hope is that the UAE’s status as an oil- exporting country, and the selection of an oil industry stalwart to lead this year’s negotiations, will not distract from the important tasks that the 12-day event aims to tackle.

Cop28 will see the first global stocktake of the progress countries have made towards their emissions reduction commitments or nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Al-Jaber has also promised to supercharge climate finance and put more pressure on developed countries to fulfil the commitment they made at Cop15 in Copenhagen to mobilise $100bn annually by 2020. This target has been missed repeatedly.

A UAE finance initiative that will provide $4.5bn to help unlock Africa’s clean energy potential was announced in early September and is an example of such commitment.

Al-Jaber’s insistence on putting oil and gas companies at the heart of the climate dialogue is proving both decisive and divisive, however, depending on which side of the climate debate one supports.

“This is your opportunity to show the world that, in fact, you are central to the solution,” he told the oil and gas-dominated Adipec conference held in Abu Dhabi on 2-5 October.

How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?
Cornelius Matthes, Dii Desert Energy

Cyril Widdershoven, global energy market analyst at Netherlands-based consultancy Verocy, supports Al-Jaber’s views. 

“The main Cop28 outcome will be linked to an even and rational transition from hydrocarbons to renewables, taking into account the overall need to cut emissions and [carbon] footprint,” he says. 

The summit will lead to a realisation that hydrocarbons will be a major part of the overall energy scene for decades to come, as the world is not yet ready to be fully electrified, Widdershoven adds.

The oil and gas industry’s increased presence at, and participation in, Cop28 is expected to make an impact.

“There will be huge pressure on the oil and gas industry to participate in the decarbonisation of energy systems, first by eliminating methane flaring and then eliminating emissions from their own operations by 2030,” says Paddy Padmanathan, co-founder and vice-chairman of clean energy firm Zhero and former CEO of Saudi utility developer Acwa Power.

“Abu Dhabi can influence the national oil companies to sign up to this, and Adnoc and Saudi Aramco should be able to influence the international oil companies to sign up.”

Top 10 UAE clean energy projects

Walking the talk

The UAE has shown leadership by being the first country in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to initiate the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies in 2015, Cornelius Matthes, CEO of Dubai-based Dii Desert Energy, tells MEED. 

“It was also the first Mena country to introduce a net-zero 2050 target in 2021, and has an unparalleled track record in building some of the largest solar plants in the world at record-low prices.”

Since other countries in the region have already followed the UAE’s lead, the expectation is for Cop28 to provide impetus for similar initiatives to accelerate.

With Abu Dhabi leading, Zhero’s Padmanathan expects it will also be possible to secure financial commitments
to the Loss & Damage Fund that was established at Cop27.

A declaration from the world’s 46 least-developed countries cited a “strong outcome operationalising the new Loss & Damage Fund” among their key expectations and priorities for Cop28.

Home to more than 14 per cent of the world’s population, these countries contribute about 1 per cent of emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes and most are on the front line of the climate crisis. The majority need funds to deal with the impact of climate change in sectors such as agriculture, while others require funds to develop clean energy sources. 

Tripling initiative

The goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity is expected be included in the agenda for Cop28.

This is in line with the International Energy Agency’s recommendation that the world needs to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 if the 1.5 degrees Celsius cap on global warming that was agreed in Paris in 2015 is to still be within reach.

However, this goal needs a clear mechanism to be effective, according to an expert in the renewable energy field.

“There will be a big song and dance around the commitment to tripling solar and wind deployment by 2030, but given there will be no mechanism for holding anyone responsible for it, and for sure there will be no consequence … I cannot see how meaningful such pledges can be,” the expert tells MEED.

Hard issues 

The wider Mena region, which will share the spotlight and scrutiny associated with Cop28, will have to demonstrate a willingness to talk about the reduction of all harmful emissions, not only carbon, says Matthes.

The easiest option is to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, as they encourage energy waste and profit wealthy populations disproportionately.

“How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?” Matthes asks.

Introducing a cost for all harmful emissions is another opportunity that can automatically improve bankability for energy transformation projects. To their credit, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently introduced voluntary carbon markets, which are seen as steps in the right direction.

Initiatives to boost energy efficiency across the Mena region should also be part of the conversation. These range from efforts to use air conditioning, cooling and water more discriminatingly; electrify transportation; deploy battery energy storage systems; and increase the decarbonisation of the production, shipping, refining and upstream use of oil and gas.

“The region’s waste of energy should be reduced and eliminated before even thinking about how to produce energy,” says Matthes.

Possible scenarios

Despite promises of inclusivity and productiveness, there is a strong probability that most Cop28 negotiators will get only a fraction of what they hope to take away from the summit.

“In a complex system like the Cop negotiations, we need to be realistic about what can be achieved,” says Matthes. “As we have seen in the past ... the same countries always manage to dilute compromises and block long-overdue and necessary developments.”

A likely post-Cop28 scenario could include an agreement requiring the oil and gas industry to do and spend more to decarbonise their products and operations, share in the financial burden of climate change mitigation, and if possible, curb production. This could avoid the use of wording that proved contentious at Glasgow’s Cop26 when a deal that called for the “phase out” of coal-fired power had to be amended to “phase down” following pressure from some countries. 

Climate change advocates will have to live with the fact that fossil fuels, and their entire supply chain, are not likely to be penalised further or disappear. Major change is unlikely until the world is ready to be fully electrified, or until the fear that halting oil production could cause energy insecurity and economic chaos can be overcome.

The Global North countries will have to weigh the best options to reach their net-zero carbon emission targets by 2050 without risking their economic growth. However, countries such as the UK are in the process of pushing back some of their energy transition targets.

Meanwhile, most Global South countries will continue to bear the brunt of the worsening climate crisis, albeit with some support from top carbon-emitting and wealthy nations.

Rightly or wrongly, this could highlight the merit of Al-Jaber’s preferred pragmatic and inclusive approach to Cop28 in terms of technologies, fuels and the representation of sectors.

“A convergence of interests and the dramatic changes to the status of the global energy transition over the past few years … could help countries find new momentum and solutions that might not have seemed feasible in the past,” says Matthes.

Image: Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber engages with Pope Francis on driving positive outcomes for climate action. Credit: Cop28

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11210573/main.gif
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia names Expo 2030 Riyadh Company CEO

    23 June 2025

    Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has named Talal Al-Marri as the CEO to lead the newly-launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC).

    In an official statement published by the Saudi Press Agency, the PIF said that Al-Marri "is expected to lead the Expo 2030 Riyadh team in delivering a world-class exhibition that reflects the kingdom’s ambitions and rapid development, in alignment with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030".

    Al-Marri has previously held several senior executive roles at Saudi Aramco, including president and CEO of Aramco Europe, senior vice president of community services and senior vice president of industrial services.

    The announcement follows the establishment of ERC as a wholly-owned subsidiary of the PIF that will build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    In a statement, the PIF said: “During its construction phases, Expo 2030 Riyadh and its legacy are projected to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to contribute approximately $5.6bn to GDP.”

    The masterplan for Expo 2030 Riyadh encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites designated for a World Expo. Situated to the north of the city, the expo site will be located near the future King Salman International airport, providing direct access to various landmarks within the Saudi capital.

    Countries participating in Expo 2030 Riyadh will have the option to construct permanent pavilions, contributing to the event's legacy. This initiative is expected to create opportunities for business and investment growth in the region.

    The expo is projected to attract over 40 million visitors. After the event concludes, ERC plans to convert the expo's secured area into a global village, to serve as a multicultural centre for retail and dining. This development will also include an international residential community with various amenities, with a focus on sustainable tourism practices.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031.

    In mid-May, MEED reported that Riyadh had begun talks with stakeholders in preparation for the start of the construction works for the event.

    The discussions were understood to have been held with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the PIF.

    German architectural firm Lava Architects and US-based engineering firm Jacobs are assisting with the project masterplan and the design of infrastructure for the site.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14116512/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Adnoc prepares tender for next Upper Zakum field expansion

    23 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Adnoc Offshore is preparing to start the tendering process for the next expansion phase of the Upper Zakum field development in Abu Dhabi, the objective of which is to increase the asset’s oil production potential to 1.5 million barrels a day (b/d).

    MEED reported in November that the offshore oil and gas production business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore) had awarded a contract for pre-front-end engineering and design (pre-feed) and feed services on the project to France-headquartered contractor Technip Energies.

    A kick-off meeting between Adnoc Offshore and Technip Energies took place on 21 November, it was previously reported.

    Pre-feed and feed works on the project, which is known as UZ 1.5MMBD, are in an advanced stage, according to sources. “Adnoc Offshore could be expected to issue the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) tender as early as July,” one source said.

    Located 84 kilometres offshore in Abu Dhabi, Upper Zakum is the world’s second-largest offshore oil field and fourth-largest oil field.

    The UZ 1.5MMBD project is the latest crude output expansion project that Adnoc Offshore has undertaken at the Upper Zakum field development.

    Upper Zakum expansion

    The first phase of the programme to raise the Upper Zakum offshore field development’s oil production capacity to 1.2 million b/d was launched in 2019. The initial goal was to increase the field’s output potential to 1 million b/d by 2024, which was later increased to 1.2 million b/d, with the project execution timeline eventually extended.

    In April last year, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had awarded the main EPC contract for the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project to UAE-based Target Engineering Construction Company. The value of the contract was estimated to be $825m.

    The project’s main scope involves the EPC of several surface facilities and plants at the Upper Zakum offshore development’s four main artificial islands: Al-Ghallan, Umm Al-Anbar, Ettouk and Asseifiya – also known as Central Island, West Island, North Island and South Island, respectively.

    Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas won the contract for the feed works on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 project in 2019. UK-headquartered Wood Group was appointed as the project management consultant for the EPC phase.

    In November, MEED reported that Adnoc Offshore had also selected Target for the second phase of the Upper Zakum 1.2 million b/d project (UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2). The value of the contract was estimated to be about $500m, according to sources.

    Target began work on the project in December, MEED previously reported.

    The scope of work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project covers the EPC of several structures on Assefiya Island.

    Adnoc Offshore performed the feed work on the UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2 project in-house.

    Upper Zakum oil production

    Adnoc Offshore has committed to a total capital expenditure budget of approximately $30bn, along with its operating partners in the Upper Zakum hydrocarbons concession, Japan Oil Development Company (Jodco) and US-based ExxonMobil. 

    The strategic objective is to first raise the asset’s oil output from 640,000 b/d to 750,000 b/d through the UZ 750 project, then to 1.2 million b/d through the two phases of the ongoing UZ 1.2MMBD project, and eventually to 1.5 million b/d.

    Zakum Development Company (Zadco), which later merged into Adnoc Offshore, awarded EPC contracts for the UZ 750 project in 2012 and early 2013.

    The $817m first package was awarded to a consortium of Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy (then known as National Petroleum Construction Company) and Technip Energies. Package two, the project’s largest EPC package, worth $3.7bn, was awarded to a consortium of UK-headquartered Petrofac and South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Engineering.

    EPC work on UZ 750 began in 2014 and was completed in 2022.

    In October 2022, Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Drilling set a world record for drilling the longest oil and gas well at the Upper Zakum concession, stretching 50,000 feet.

    The extended-reach wells will tap into an undeveloped part of the Upper Zakum reservoir, potentially increasing the field’s production capacity by 15,000 b/d without expanding or building any new infrastructure, Adnoc said.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc signs $60bn of agreements with US companies

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115851/main5852.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Beltone Leasing secures $20m funding from German investor

    23 June 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Beltone Leasing & Factoring has signed a $20m funding agreement with Germany-based Finance in Motion to expand lending to small businesses and support green finance initiatives across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena).

    The funding is evenly split between two investment vehicles: $10m from the Sanad Fund for micro, small and medium enterprises, and $10m from the Green for Growth Fund. Both facilities have a tenor of five years.

    Beltone said the funding will be used to provide finance for underserved businesses and low-income households, and to support renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable resource projects.

    In 2021, the Egyptian Financial Regulatory Authority introduced mandatory environmental, social and governance (ESG) and climate-related financial disclosures for listed companies and non-bank financial institutions. The first reporting cycle began in 2023. The agreement comes as financial institutions in the region face growing pressure to meet environmental and social targets while expanding credit to the private sector.

    Beltone Leasing & Factoring is a wholly owned subsidiary of Beltone Holding. The company offers financing solutions including leasing and factoring products to corporate and SME clients.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115758/main5331.jpg
    Sarah Rizvi
  • PIF firm prepares Pirelli tyre plant contract award

    23 June 2025

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Mena Tyre Company is preparing to award a contract to build a Pirelli tyre manufacturing plant in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC).

    MEED understands that the contract is being finalised and is expected to be signed within the next few weeks.

    The tender notice was issued in December last year, and firms submitted their final offers in April.

    Mena Tyre Company is a joint venture of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Italian tyre maker Pirelli Tyre. The PIF holds a 75% stake in the venture, with Pirelli holding the remaining 25%.

    The plant is expected to start production in 2026. It will make tyres for passenger vehicles under the Pirelli brand. It will also manufacture and market tyres under a new local brand targeting the domestic and regional markets.

    The plant is expected to have the capacity to produce 3.5 million tyres a year.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that the PIF and Pirelli Tyre had tendered the contract to build an estimated $550m tyre manufacturing plant in KAEC.

    UK-based firm Jones Lang LaSalle is the project consultant.

    The project is located within the King Salman Automotive Cluster of KAEC, which was officially announced on 6 February by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud. 

    The move was part of the kingdom’s push to become a dominant player in the Gulf’s automotive sector. It follows investment in recent years in infrastructure, supply chain development and research to attract global automakers to Saudi Arabia and create an ecosystem for electric vehicle (EV) production in particular – all driven by the Saudi Vision 2030 mandate to diversify the economy.

    The cluster is expected to be a major contributor to the National Industrial Development and Logistics Programme (NIDLP), which aims to develop high-growth sectors locally and attract foreign investment.

    Several schemes supporting the NIDLP have made significant progress in recent years, including multibillion-dollar EV manufacturing plants backed by the PIF, such as assembly facilities for US-based Lucid Motors and Ceer, the kingdom’s first homegrown EV brand, launched by the PIF in collaboration with Taiwan’s Foxconn.

    These facilities are supported by the National Automotive & Mobility Investment Company (Tasaru Mobility Investments), which the PIF established in 2023 to develop the kingdom’s local supply chain capabilities for the automotive and mobility industries.

    The PIF then signed several agreements with international companies, including South Korean car maker Hyundai and Pirelli, to establish production facilities in KAEC's automotive cluster.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115309/main5503.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Bahrain opens highway consultancy bids

    23 June 2025

    Bahrain’s Ministry of Works has opened the commercial bids that it received from firms for a contract covering the pre-contract engineering consultancy services for the next phase of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway upgrade.

    According to the official notice published by the Bahrain Tender Board, the scope of the contract includes designs to update the highway to at least five lanes each way, update utility corridors, revise the stormwater design and prepare contract drawings and tender documents.

    The bidders include:

    • Parsons Corporation (US) – $1.5m
    • Aecom (US) – $1.6m

    In March, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development and Bahrain’s government signed a KD10m ($32.4m) loan agreement to fund the second phase of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah Highway, which is expected to cost about $404m.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the construction on the project’s first phase was completed in 2020.

    A joint venture of local firm Nass Contracting and Kuwait’s KCC Engineering & Contracting undertook the project’s main construction works.

    According to a report by UK data analytics firm GlobalData, Bahrain’s construction industry is expected to grow by 3.5% in real terms in 2025, supported by public and private sector investments in industrial, commercial and energy construction projects, coupled with the rise in the value of awarded tenders.

    The report adds that the total value of tenders awarded grew by 145.2% year-on-year in 2024, preceded by an annual growth of 114.1% in 2023.

    The infrastructure construction sector is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, before registering an annual average growth of 5.4% in 2026-29, supported by investments in major road and airport construction projects.

    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14115007/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal