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Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    29 April 2024

     

    This package also includes: Region boosts LNG spending

    Offtake agreements are crucial for producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be able to reap long-term returns from their projects. 

    Traditionally, LNG has primarily been traded on the spot market, which, while beneficial to buyers, has left sellers with little profit.

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    Scores of such supply deals have been struck by regional LNG producers in recent years – primarily by QatarEnergy, Oman LNG and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) as they look to secure sustained returns on their project capital expenditure.

    Gulf LNG producers have been striving to strike long-term SPAs with key customers around the world

    Qatar LNG supply deals

    Qatar started delivering LNG to China in September 2009 and is estimated to have supplied approximately 80 million tonnes of LNG to the country to date.

    Qatar has worked to boost geopolitical and commercial relations with China, which is the world’s second-largest economy and one of the biggest markets for LNG consumption. The key long-term LNG SPAs that QatarEnergy has secured from Chinese companies, particularly since 2021, are a result of those improving bilateral relations.

    In March 2021, QatarEnergy won a 10-year contract with China’s Sinopec to supply 2 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG, with deliveries commencing in January 2022.

    QatarEnergy then signed a long-term SPA with CNOOC Gas & Power Trading & Marketing, a subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), in October 2021. The deal involves supplying 3.5 million t/y of LNG to CNOOC over 15 years, starting in January 2022.

    Following that, in December 2021, QatarEnergy secured SPAs with two Chinese companies for the supply of 2 million t/y – 1 million t/y each to Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Company and S&T International, for periods of 10 and 15 years, respectively.

    QatarEnergy also signed another SPA with Sinopec in November 2022 for the supply of 4 million t/y of LNG from the North Field East (NFE) project for 27 years.

    In June 2023, QatarEnergy secured two major LNG supply deals with state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The first deal is an SPA with CNPC to supply 4 million t/y of LNG for 27 years. As part of the second agreement, QatarEnergy transferred a 5% stake in its NFE LNG project to CNPC, which is the equivalent of one NFE train with a capacity of 8 million t/y.

    More recently, the Qatari state energy enterprise signed a major agreement with Sinopec to supply 3 million t/y of LNG for a period of 27 years. The LNG cargoes are to be sourced from QatarEnergy’s North Field South project. Under the terms of the agreement, QatarEnergy will also transfer a 5% interest to Sinopec in a joint venture company that owns the equivalent of
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    Oman grows customer base

    Oman LNG has enjoyed significant success in some of the world’s largest LNG markets, winning deals with major consumers in those countries. Most recently, in April, the majority state-owned company secured three SPAs with Turkiye’s Botas Petroleum, Shell International Trading Middle East – the regional trading subsidiary of Shell – and Japan’s Jera. 

    Under these agreements, Oman LNG will deliver 1 million t/y, 1.6 million t/y and 800,000 t/y of LNG to its three customers, respectively.

    In addition, as well as having achieved the final investment decision on the Marsa LNG project in the sultanate with France’s TotalEnergies, Oman LNG has also signed an SPA with the French energy major to supply 800,000 t/y of LNG for a period of 10 years, starting in 2025. 

    Adnoc vies for market share

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    In March, Adnoc signed a heads of agreement with Germany’s SEFE Securing Energy for Europe for the supply of LNG that will primarily be sourced from its planned LNG export terminal in Ruwais. Adnoc will deliver 1 million t/y of LNG to SEFE Marketing & Trading Singapore, a subsidiary of the Berlin-headquartered SEFE, for a period of 15 years.

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  • Region boosts LNG spending

    29 April 2024

     

    This package also includes: Gulf players secure future of LNG projects 

    There has been a sharp rise in investment in projects aimed at expanding the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Gulf region since the start of this decade.

    A capital expenditure of close to $38bn has been made by Middle East and North Africa hydrocarbons producers in the past 10 years, mainly on projects to increase LNG output capacity, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Almost three quarters of that spending has taken place in the past four years, and predominantly in the GCC.

    The rise in the importance of natural gas, and therefore LNG, as an energy transition fuel has led to strong growth in its demand worldwide. Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth, energy major Shell said in a recent report.

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    Gulf players are keen to cater to this growing demand and dominate the global supply market, fuelling a wave of investment in large-scale production-boosting projects and terminal construction schemes. 

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    Muscat moves up

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    The overall value of the export terminal project is estimated to be more than $5bn. Adnoc is expected to issue the full EPC contract award for the Ruwais project in June this year.

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  • Saudi Arabia extends Jubail-Buraydah IWTP deadline

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    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11720209/main.jpg
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  • UAE rides high on non-oil boom

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    MEED's April 2024 special report on the UAE includes:

    > GVT & ECONOMY: Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
    > BANKING: UAE banks seize the moment
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc oil and gas project spending sees steep uptick
    > DOWNSTREAM: UAE builds its downstream and chemicals potential
    > POWER: UAE marks successful power project deliveries
    > WATER: Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
    > DUBAI CONSTRUCTION: Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
    > ABU DHABI CONSTRUCTION: Abu Dhabi makes major construction investments

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11705846/main.gif
    John Bambridge
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    Morocco aims to bring its renewable capacity to 10,000MW by 2030. Of the total, solar PV is expected to account for 4,500MW, wind for 4,200MW and hydroelectric for 1,300MW.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11717256/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo