meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Egypt raises gas prices by 30% amid Iran war

    11 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry increased the price of several petroleum products and natural gas for vehicles on 9 March, according to official statements.

    The price of natural gas for vehicles has been put up by 30% to E£13 ($0.25) a cubic metre.

    The price of diesel has gone up by 17% to E£20.5 a litre, while 95-octane petrol has been put up by 14.2% to E£24 a litre.

    The new prices were put into effect early on 10 March and come amid soaring global energy prices in the wake of the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry said: “This comes in light of exceptional circumstances resulting from geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their direct impact on global energy markets, which have led to a significant increase in import and domestic production costs.

    “Disruptions in supply chains, increased risk levels and higher shipping and insurance costs have resulted in a substantial surge in global crude oil and petroleum product prices, levels not seen in energy markets for years.”

    The statement also said that Egypt is continuing efforts to boost domestic production and reduce the country’s import bill.

    Egypt, the Middle East and North Africa region’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer, is facing uncertainty over its LNG supplies in coming months.

    Between March 2025 and February 2026, Egypt imported 9,440 kilotonnes of LNG, with the majority of its imports purchased through short-term agreements, mainly with third parties like trading houses.

    Last year, it was reported that Egypt had signed deals for around 150 cargoes through to the summer of 2026.

    While much of Egypt’s LNG is likely to come from the US, and will not be directly impacted by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the recent surge in LNG prices could mean that the North African country will struggle to afford shipments.

    Exacerbating the need for increased LNG imports, on 28 February, Israel shut down production from its offshore gas fields due to security concerns, cutting pipeline exports to Egypt.

    Prior to the fields being taken offline, Egypt was importing about 1.1 billion cubic feet a day from the Tamar and Leviathan fields.

    On 4 March, addressing concerns about energy supplies in the country, Prime Minister of Egypt Mostafa Madbouly said that Egypt had just concluded “several contracts” to procure gas shipments at “preferential prices”, in cooperation with several countries and international companies.

    However, he did not provide details about the exact pricing of the deals.

    On top of the LNG deals Egypt has with trading houses, in January, Cairo signed a memorandum of understanding with Qatar related to 2026 LNG imports.

    The preliminary deal included plans for 24 LNG deliveries through the summer of this year, when energy demand typically peaks.

    Now, the shuttering of Qatar’s export terminals and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz are casting a shadow over the deal and there is increased uncertainty over whether these deliveries will be executed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15931401/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Delays expected to $3.3bn Kuwait gas project due to Iran war

    11 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Significant delays are now expected for state-owned Kuwait Gulf Oil Company's (KGOC's) planned tender for the development of an onshore gas plant next to the Al-Zour refinery, according to industry sources.

    The project budget is estimated to be $3.3bn and the last meeting with contractors to discuss the project took place in Kuwait on 10 February.

    In February, contractors were told to expect the invitation to bid to be issued in late March, but this schedule is now expected to be extended significantly due to uncertainties created by the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February

    Under current plans, the plant will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra offshore field, located in Gulf waters in the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    Ownership of the field is disputed by Iran, which refers to the field as Arash.

    Iran claims the field partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development.

    One source said: “Developing this gas field in the waters so close to Iran will be impossible in the current security environment.

    “Everyone is expecting extended delays to progress on this project and all related projects, such as the planned onshore processing facility in Kuwait.

    “The offshore elements of the project would be especially vulnerable to attacks from Iran and there are likely to be security concerns over the development of this field for some time to come.”

    In July last year, MEED reported that KGOC had initiated the project by launching an early engagement process with contractors for the main engineering, procurement and construction tender.

    France-based Technip Energies completed the contract for the front-end engineering and design.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15931284/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion

    10 March 2026

     

    Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company, released its latest seven-year statement in March, outlining the next phase of the kingdom’s water infrastructure plans.

    According to the document, desalination capacity from Sharakat-procured projects is expected to rise from about 3.88 million cubic metres a day (cm/d) in 2025 to roughly 7.18 million cm/d by 2031, reflecting the continued reliance on desalinated water to meet rising urban demand.

    The expansion will be supported by seven additional independent water plants (IWPs) with a combined capacity of about 2.8 million cm/d, alongside projects already operating, under construction or in procurement.

    Against this backdrop, 2025 proved to be the busiest year for desalination awards since before the Covid-19 pandemic. Total water infrastructure awards also remained strong at $10bn, despite dipping on the two previous years.

    Desalination projects accounted for $2.2bn across four schemes. The largest award was the $700m Shoaiba 6 seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant, which will have a capacity of 500,000 cm/d.

    Another key development came when Sharakat awarded the contract to develop the Ras Mohaisen IWP on the Red Sea coast.

    The project will treat 300,000 cm/d of seawater using reverse osmosis technology and will supply areas including Mecca and Al-Bahah. The developer consortium is led by Acwa Power, which holds a 45% stake, alongside Haji Abdullah Ali Reza & Partners with 35% and Al-Kifah Holding with 20%.

    Transmission projects

    Large transmission infrastructure continues to move forwards, with new contracts reaching $6.2bn in 2025, more than 60% of total awards.

    This includes a contract with Sharakat to develop and operate the kingdom’s second independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project. The winning consortium comprises local firms Aljomaih Energy & Water, Nesma Company and Buhur for Investment Company.

    The 587-kilometre (km) pipeline, capable of transporting 650,000 cm/d of water, will link Jubail in the Eastern Province with Buraydah in the Qassim region. Construction is expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026.

    In December, local firm Vision Invest was named as the preferred bidder to develop and operate the 859km Riyadh-Qassim IWTP, Sharakat’s third IWTP project.

    Vision Invest’s offer to develop the project with a levelised tariff of SR2.627 ($0.70) a cubic metre was almost 20% lower than the next nearest bidder

    Further transmission projects are also advancing through Saudi Arabia’s Water Transmission Company (WTCO). 

    Bidding opened in September for the Jubail-Buraydah transmission scheme and the Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca independent water transmission system, which together will deliver more than 1.38 million cm/d of water across central and western Saudi Arabia. An initial deadline was set for the end of the year, although this has been extended several times.

    WTCO has also issued a tender for the construction of a $700m IWTP project in Qassim, including a 350km water transmission pipeline and 11 storage tanks. The main contract bids are expected in the coming weeks.

    Storage and wastewater treatment

    Saudi Arabia’s national water strategy aims to build reserves equivalent to seven days of municipal demand, requiring more than 115 million cubic metres of storage capacity by 2030.

    Alongside this, Sharakat’s seven-year plan envisages wastewater treatment capacity rising from 1.79 million cm/d to about 3.19 million cm/d.

    In February, a consortium of Saudi utilities provider Marafiq, the regional business of France’s Veolia and Bahrain/Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding reached financial close on a $500m wastewater treatment plant in Jubail Industrial City 2

    The project will be developed under a concession-style model similar to a public-private partnership, with the developer consortium responsible for building and operating the plant over a 30-year period.

    Some developers have also started to return to the Saudi water market, with Metito CEO, Rami Ghandour, explaining: “We took a break for a few years from bidding for municipal projects in the kingdom as we felt the market was overheating.”

    A consortium of Metito, Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) and SkyBridge was named the preferred bidder for the Hadda independent sewage treatment (ISTP) in December with a levelised tariff of SR2.354 ($0.63) a cubic metre.

    Meanwhile, a group comprising Miahona, Marafiq and Buhur for Investment Company was selected as the preferred bidder for the Arana ISTP with a levelised tariff of SR1.35 ($0.36) a cubic metre. Both the Hadda and Arana ISTP projects in Mecca Province are set to reach financial close this year.

    Outlook

    The project pipeline suggests that large transmission projects will continue drive contract activity. About $9.3bn of projects are currently under bid evaluation, with water pipeline schemes accounting for more than half, while a further $12bn of projects are in prequalification.

    The request for proposals has already been issued for the Riyadh East ISTP, which will have a treatment capacity of 200,000 cm/d in its first phase, expanding to 400,000 cm/d in the second phase. The bid submission deadline is 2 April.

    On the desalination front, IWP schemes at Ras Al-Khair, Tabuk, Shuqaiq and Jizan, have seen shifts in expected procurement timelines following earlier prequalification rounds.

    The largest of these is phase two of the Ras Al-Khair IWP, which has been in development for more than a decade and involves the construction of a 600,000 cm/d reverse osmosis desalination plant.

    According to the revised timeline, the $400m Al-Shuqaiq 4 IWP project will be the first of seven planned IWPs to reach commercial operations in 2029. The main contract is set to be tendered later this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15926412/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Ruwais industrial complex struck by drones

    10 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to a fire that has broken out at a facility in Ruwais industrial complex, caused by a drone attack.

    The Ruwais industrial complex, located in Abu Dhabi's Al-Dhafra region, houses the world's fourth-largest single-site oil refinery and is operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

    No injuries have been reported at this time, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said.

    The UAE continues to intercept drones and missiles fired from Iran, as attacks on the Gulf countries continue for a 11th day in the ongoing regional conflict.

    Apart from the Ruwais refining complex, which has a capacity of 922,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and condensates, Ruwais industrial complex is also home to petrochemicals producer Borouge’s main production complex.

    Additionally, Adnoc is in an advanced stage of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project within the Ruwais industrial complex, which will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y. When the project is commissioned, which is due to take place in 2028, Adnoc’s LNG production capacity will more than double to about 15 million t/y.

    Separately, Taziz – a 60:40 joint venture of Adnoc Group and Abu Dhabi’s industrial holding company ADQ – is overseeing the development of at least seven specialty chemicals plants in its planned derivatives zone in Ruwais Industrial City.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15926385/main2738.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Contractors submit bids for Dorra offshore gas project packages

    10 March 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted bids to Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO) for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on a project to develop natural gas from the Dorra gas field, located in the waters of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    KJO, which is jointly owned by Saudi Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) subsidiary Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC), has divided the project’s scope of work into four EPC packages – three offshore and one onshore.

    Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) has won package one of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract awarded by KJO to L&TEH is estimated to be valued at $140m-$150m, MEED reported in October.

    Contractors submitted bids for the remaining three packages – offshore packages 2A and 2B and onshore package three by the final deadline of 9 March, according to sources.

    Two consortiums of contractors submitted bids for the packages, sources told MEED:

    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy) / Larsen and Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)

    KJO had extended the bid submission deadlines for these packages several times since last year.

    The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables. Package three includes the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas from the Dorra gas field.

    The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.

    Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.

    The Dorra facilities scheme is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Saudi Aramco and KPC to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that has advanced in the past few months.

    AGOC onshore Khafji gas plant

    AGOC has set a current bid submission deadline of 22 April for seven EPC packages as part of a project to construct the Khafji gas plant, which will process gas from the Dorra field onshore Saudi Arabia.

    MEED previously reported that AGOC issued main tenders for the seven EPC packages in 2025. Contractors were initially set deadlines of 24 October for technical bid submissions and 9 November for the submission of commercial bids, which was then extended by AGOC until 22 December.

    The seven EPC packages cover a range of works, including open-art and licensed process facilities, pipelines, industrial support infrastructure, site preparation, overhead transmission lines, power supply systems and main operational and administrative buildings.

    France-based Technip Energies has carried out a concept study and front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the entire Dorra gas field development programme.

    Progress has been hampered by a geopolitical dispute over ownership of the Dorra gas field. Iran, which refers to the field as Arash, claims it partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia maintain that the field lies entirely within their jointly administered Neutral Zone – also known as the Divided Zone – and that Iran has no legal basis for its claim.

    In February 2024, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reiterated their claim to the Dorra field in a joint statement issued during an official meeting in Riyadh of Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.

    Since that show of strength and unity, projects targeting the production and processing of gas from the Dorra field have gained momentum.

    KGOC onshore processing facilities

    KGOC has initiated early engagement with contractors for the main EPC tendering process for a planned Dorra onshore gas processing facility, which is to be located in Kuwait.

    KGOC is at the feed stage of the project, which is estimated to be valued at up to $3.3bn. The firm is now expected to issue the main EPC tender within the first quarter of this year, MEED recently reported.

    The proposed facility will receive gas from a pipeline from the Dorra offshore field, which is being separately developed by KJO. The complex will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cf/d of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra field.

    The facility will be located near the Al-Zour refinery, owned by another KPC subsidiary, Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company.

    A 700,000-square-metre plot has been allocated next to the Al-Zour refinery for the gas processing facility and discussions regarding survey work are ongoing. The site could require shoring, backfilling and dewatering.

    The onshore gas processing plant will also supply surplus gas to KPC’s upstream business, Kuwait Oil Company, for possible injection into its oil fields.

    Additionally, KGOC plans to award licensed technology contracts to US-based Honeywell UOP and Shell subsidiary Shell Catalysts & Technologies for the plant’s acid gas removal unit and sulphur recovery unit, respectively.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15926065/main5801.gif
    Indrajit Sen