meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Jordan allows phosphate rail line bidders more time

    30 January 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi’s National Infrastructure Construction Company (NICC), a subsidiary of Etihad Rail, has allowed contractors until 15 February to submit their proposals for a contract to build the second section of the phosphate railway line that will run from Ghor Al-Safi to Aqaba in Jordan.

    The tender was issued on 27 December, with an initial bid submission deadline of the end of January.

    The scope of work for the railway includes civil engineering, tunnel construction, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) works.

    Tendering is also ongoing for the first section of the line. NICC is preparing to award the contract for the first section of the railway line, stretching from Al-Shidiya to Aqaba.

    MEED understands that the evaluation is in its final stages and that the contract will be awarded soon.

    In April last year, a French-Swiss joint venture of Egis and Arx was awarded the design consultancy contract for the project.

    Etihad Rail announced in September 2024 that it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) worth $2.3bn with Jordan’s Transport Ministry and local companies to develop the phosphate railway line.

    In an official statement, Etihad Rail said it had signed an agreement with Jordan to build, operate and maintain the project.

    The statement added that additional MoUs were signed with Jordan Phosphate Mines Company and Arab Potash Company to transport 16 million tonnes a year of phosphate and potash from mining sites to the Port of Aqaba via the Jordanian railway network.

    The MoUs also cover the manufacture and supply of rolling stock; the construction of terminals in Aqaba, Ghor Al-Safi and Shidiya; and the maintenance, repair and operation of the railway line. 

    Project history

    In 2015, Jordan’s Transport Ministry tendered a contract to construct the Shidiya rail link, intended to transport 6 million tonnes a year of phosphate from mines in Shidiya to Wadi Al-Yutum, near Aqaba.

    In November of that year, a joint venture of China Communications Construction Company and the local contractor Masar United was confirmed as the lowest bidder. It was awaiting the formal award to build the 21-kilometre spur line.

    The project was subsequently put on hold due to funding issues.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15541534/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Acwa Power to develop $200m solar plant in Philippines

    30 January 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power is investing $200m to build a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in the Philippines.

    The renewables developer finalised the agreement with the Philippine government-owned Bases Conversion & Development Authority (BCDA) on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.

    Under the reservation agreement, a 500-hectare site has been selected within the New Clark City Special Economic Zone in Tarlac province, north of Manila.

    The project must undergo a pre-feasibility study, technical assessments and regulatory approvals before any final investment decision is made.

    The collaboration will also explore “potential battery energy storage system (Bess) integration,” Acwa Power said in a statement. 

    No details were provided on the project’s potential power generation capacity.

    The reservation agreement follows a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Acwa Power and BCDA in Riyadh last November.

    Since then, the partners have evaluated multiple locations in New Clark City and shortlisted the 500-hectare site for further technical and commercial evaluation.

    Acwa Power said it is targeting a threefold increase in its global assets under management to $250bn by 2030.

    The company currently has a global renewables portfolio of 52GW, accounting for 56% of its total power capacity, and plans to deploy 5.6GWh of battery energy storage capacity.

    As part of its foreign investment plans, the company also recently signed major agreements for large-scale renewable energy projects in Uzbekistan.

    This comprised $1.8bn in financing for the Samarkand solar and battery energy storage project, Uzbekistan’s biggest solar development.

    The project is being developed in partnership with Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation, Chubu Electric Power and Shikoku Electric Power.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15541146/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Algeria plans Constantine tramway extension

    30 January 2026

     

    Algeria is planning another extension of its Constantine tramway network, which currently runs from Ben Abdelmalek Stadium in the city centre to the Ali Mendjeli area.

    The project client, Algiers Metro Company (EMA), received bids on 14 December last year from consultants for a tender to undertake feasibility and detailed preliminary design studies for the project.

    The client had tendered the contract in October.

    The current tramway network spans approximately 19.3 kilometres (km).

    The tramway is owned by EMA and operated by Societe d’Exploitation des Tramways (Setram), a joint venture of EMA and French firm RATP Group.

    The first route of the tramway, with a length of 9km, was commissioned in July 2013, according to GlobalData’s sister company, Railway Technology.

    The expansion phase began in July 2015 and was completed in June 2019, increasing total ridership to over 30,000 passengers a day.

    The initial 9km-long section of the Constantine tramway system runs from the Zouaghi terminal to the Ben-Abdelmalek Stadium station through the old town and the university area.

    The route includes 11 stations, three of which are multimodal, two viaducts measuring 465m and 114m long, and an underpass.

    A 65,000-square-metre ground-level depot serves the fleet for maintenance and train parking.

    The Ben-Abdelmalek Stadium was renovated as part of the project to accommodate the line's passage.

    Contractors involved 

    EMA awarded a contract for the tramway line extension to France’s Alstom and the local firm Cosider Travaux Publics consortium in July 2015.

    Spanish firm Idom was awarded the detailed design and construction works management, while US-based engineering firm Aecom was responsible for civil engineering and urban planning.

    Cital, a joint venture of EMA, Spain’s Ferrovial and Alstom, delivered 24 trainsets to open the first phase of the extension in 2019.

    The company also maintains 51 trainsets and the infrastructure of the Constantine tramway.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15540773/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dewa desalination plans offer timely boost

    30 January 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) is taking early steps towards procuring its second independent water producer (IWP) project, a signal that the utility may be further expanding its role from service provider to long-term utility asset developer.

    Consultancy bids were received this week for a pre-feasibility study that will assess capacity and location requirements for a planned seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    The project, being pursued with Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE), would build on the 180-million-imperial-gallons-a-day Hassyan IWP, awarded to Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power in 2024.

    It would also align with Dewa’s wider objective to lift Dubai’s desalination capacity to 750 million imperial gallons a day by 2030, from around 495 million today. Achieving that target may require a further pipeline of privately developed water assets between now and then.

    A useful point of comparison lies in Saudi Arabia’s power sector. Saudi Electricity Company has increasingly relied on independent power producers over the past decade to accelerate capacity expansion, ease pressure on public capital spending and deepen the project finance ecosystem.

    For regional developers, competition in Saudi Arabia’s water market continues to intensify. In December, Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) prequalified 50 developers to bid for five upcoming IWPs and 63 developers for independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) projects.

    Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE entered 2026 with limited visible momentum in desalination. EtihadWE’s $400m Fujairah SWRO IWP is the only large desalination plant expected to be tendered this year.

    In a crowded market, increased activity by Dubai’s utility would provide a welcome boost.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15540724/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Projects show resilience in 2026

    30 January 2026

     

    While priorities may have shifted over the past two years, the region’s projects market continues to display resilience and will offer opportunities in 2026 in areas including Saudi Arabia’s gigaprojects progamme, regional rail schemes and other strategic sectors.

    Despite much having been written over the past two years about the reprioritisation of Saudi Arabia’s gigaprojects, work is continuing. 

    “They are still going, all the gigaprojects,” says Pierre Santoni, president – infrastructure for Europe, Middle East and Africa (Emea) at US-based Parsons. 

    “Even Neom, where the slowdown has been widely publicised, we still have people there working on Oxagon, and we still have people on the Line. All the other ones are still ongoing,” he adds. “We just signed a contract to design all the infrastructure around the Mukaab for New Murabba. We have live tenders and are designing the public realm for Diriyah Gate 2. We are on Sports Boulevard, King Salman Park and the expansion of King Abdullah Financial District. All of those are ongoing.”

    Another focus for the region is rail. Parsons led the Riyadh Metro Transit Consultants joint venture that project managed the first six lines of Riyadh Metro, which opened in late 2024. 

    “Riyadh Metro was a great success for Parsons and our partners, and all the people involved. That was the original gigaproject. At one point, there were 50,000 workers on Riyadh Metro every day,” says Santoni.

    The success of this project, and of earlier schemes such as Dubai Metro and Doha Metro, combined with high-level governmental backing, have given the rail sector in the region unprecedented momentum. 

    “Rail is a major market in the region at the moment,” says Santoni. “The UAE is a good example – you have the freight railway and the opening of passenger traffic. The high-speed rail project has also started. In Abu Dhabi, the tram on Yas Island was launched last year. In Dubai, the Blue Line is in full construction mode with delivery firmly scheduled for 2029. It is a major undertaking, and the intention of the Roads & Transport Authority is to continue with further extensions, which is much needed given the growth in population.”

    Roads and airports are two other areas of focus for Parsons. The company continues to work as the lead consultant for major road schemes in the UAE, and it secured delivery partner roles in 2025 for the airside and landside infrastructure at Riyadh’s King Salman International airport.

    Operations and maintenance 

    The infrastructure market is not just about building new projects. As the region’s infrastructure ages, operations and maintenance (O&M) has become a central pillar of Parsons’ strategy, Santoni notes.

    “The game is not just about building new infrastructure; it’s about making existing infrastructure perform better,” he says. 

    “A lot of O&M considerations are coming to the forefront. We are deploying technology like iNET, which is Parsons’ proprietary intelligent traffic management system. We did the initial feasibility study last year and managed to improve transit times through 320 intersections in Riyadh. We just signed a contract to fully deploy the system. 

    The game is not just about building new infrastructure; it’s about making existing infrastructure perform better

    “It’s not just physical infrastructure; it’s the management of all that through technology-enabled tools.” 

    Santoni says this technological “brain” is also being applied to the King Salman Park project, which involves developing the world’s largest urban park and requires a highly complex O&M system to manage it effectively. Automated management of soil and water for hundreds of plant species will remove the need for a vast on-site workforce.

    Traditionally known for core engineering and transport, Parsons is increasingly recognised for work in other sectors, including hospitality and defence. The firm is currently managing over 30,000 luxury hotel keys in the region, a surge driven by Saudi Arabia’s tourism goals.

    “We became recognised, sort of unknowingly, for these complex, niche-type hospitality projects where it’s about preserving heritage and respecting culture, but doing so in the most modern and technologically advanced way possible. This is going to be a very nice market for us in the future,” Santoni says. 

    “We also signed two major contracts last year for confidential defence clients in Saudi Arabia to deliver infrastructure.”

    Capacity crunch

    As the industry faces a talent shortage, Santoni highlights Parsons’ internal mobility as a competitive advantage. While competitors have struggled with project transitions, Parsons has focused on relocating staff to sustain its growth.

    “We did see a lot of people either exiting Saudi Arabia or relocating within,” Santoni says. “We have been very good at relocating people. This is one of our strengths. When projects changed pace, we made a conscious effort to relocate people, give them options and extend them on the job until something else came up. Last year alone, about 350 people were relocated internally within the region. We are still in hiring mode.”

    Being a multidisciplinary firm present in several countries gives flexibility. “In Saudi Arabia, most of Parsons’ work has traditionally been project management consultancy (PMC), although we have had for a number of years now a growing design office in Riyadh with an offshoot in Dammam and one in Jeddah. 

    “We currently have almost 300 people in our design office in Saudi Arabia, which is slightly less than 10% of our workforce in the kingdom. The rest are doing PMC work. In Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, it’s mostly the more traditional model of design and construction supervision work with some PMC,” says Santoni. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15527825/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman