meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors win deals for Saudi Energy transmission projects

    23 June 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia-based Haif Company has won contracts for two separate substation projects in Saudi Arabia, according to sources.

    The first involves the construction of a 132/33/13.8kV substation for Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, which will replace the existing Tabuk substation 2 in Tabuk, northwestern Saudi Arabia.

    The works include the construction of a new substation, along with GIS, transformers, switchgear, capacitor banks, MV/LV cable systems and protection infrastructure.

    Ten firms submitted bids for the project last December. The bidders included:

    • Al-Babtain Contracting (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alfanar Projects (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Gihaz Holding (Saudi Arabia) 
    • Al-Osais International Holding (Saudi Arabia)
    • Danway Electrical & Mechanical Engineering (UAE)
    • Haif Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Mohammed Al-Ojaimi Group (Saudi Arabia)
    • Nesma Infrastructure & Technology (Saudi Arabia)
    • Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works (Saudi Arabia)
    • Tareg Al-Jaafari Contracting Est (Saudi Arabia)

    In addition to Tabuk, Saudi Energy is planning several power transmission projects in Al-Jouf, Medina and the Eastern Province as part of the kingdom’s push to upgrade its electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure

    The second Haif contract involves a 132/33kV substation project at Hail to support the integration of solar generation from the Al-Kahfah photovoltaic facility into the network. Together, the projects are valued at about $90m.

    Elsewhere, the local Trading & Development Partnership has been appointed to build a 132/33kV substation at Al-Jouf, in Al-Jouf Province.

    The facility will deliver a transmission capacity of about 168 MVA to the Al-Busitaa agricultural site, supporting the Liquid Fuel Displacement Programme, which aims to reduce reliance on diesel generators and fuel oil for power generation.

    Nine bids were submitted for the project last year.

    According to MEED Projects, Saudi Energy has almost $2.3bn-worth of projects currently under bid evaluation, including the 500kV overhead transmission line, approximately 466km long, for the Eastern Operating Area and the Central Operating Area in the Eastern Province. The main contract is expected to be awarded later in 2026.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17397346/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Morocco approves Khalladi wind farm expansion

    23 June 2026

    Acwa Maroc, a subsidiary of Saudi developer Acwa, has secured approval to expand the Khalladi wind independent power project (IPP) in northern Morocco by 40MW.

    The extension will increase the project’s total installed capacity from 120MW to 160MW. The Khalladi wind farm is located at Djebel Sendouq, about 50 kilometres from Tangier. The existing facility comprises 40 wind turbines rated at 3MW each.

    The project operates under Morocco’s Law 13.09 renewable energy framework, which allows private renewable energy firms to develop generation assets and supply electricity directly to industrial consumers.

    According to Acwa’s website, the facility entered commercial operation in 2018 and supplies electricity to Morocco’s state-owned utility Onee and large industrial customers under a 20-year power-purchase agreement.

    Acwa holds a 51% stake in the project alongside Participation Khalladi SA (24%) and ARIF North Africa Investment SARL, an infrastructure investment fund managed by France’s Amundi (25%).

    The engineering, procurement and construction contract was executed by Denmark’s Vestas, France’s Cegelec and Morocco’s Stam and AGTT.

    Morocco is targeting renewables to account for 52% of its installed power generation capacity by 2030.

    The operational wind farm generates about 397GWh of electricity a year. It is understood that the expansion project has already entered the development phase.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17394999/main5046.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Libya plans to distribute oil budget in July

    23 June 2026

     

    Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has communicated to contractors in the country that it is expecting funds from the country’s budget to be distributed to state-owned oil companies in July, according to industry sources.

    Earlier this year, the country’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years.

    The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, calling it a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

    The total budget was valued at LD190bn ($29.95bn), and LD12bn ($1.9bn) was allocated to the country’s NOC.

    An additional LD40bn ($6.3bn) was allocated for “development projects”.

    At the time, Libya stated that a joint committee had been formed to help prioritise development projects, and the projects had been listed in the budget.

    Over the past decade, the country has had two rival governments; the last time the country operated under a single national budget was in 2013.

    The country’s two legislatures are the eastern-based House of Representatives and the Tripoli-based High Council of State.

    As a result of the US and Israel’s war with Israel, there has been significant disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports around 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports.

    This has driven global energy prices higher, with Brent hitting more than $114 a barrel in May this year.

    The price of Brent remains 10% higher than prior to the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Libya is well-positioned to capitalise on the ongoing uncertainty around exports via the Strait of Hormuz, as energy-importing nations seek reliable oil and gas supplies.

    The North African country is located near Europe, with several large oil and gas export ports and a pipeline that transports gas to Italy.

    Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but has struggled to implement projects to develop them over recent years due to political infighting and security problems.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17389246/main2010.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Contractors prepare bids for Jafurah fifth expansion phase

    23 June 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit bids to Saudi Aramco for a major project representing the fifth expansion phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme in Saudi Arabia.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of three gas compression plants at the giant gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be capable of processing up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Aramco is said to have issued the main EPC tender for the project during the first quarter of the year. The current deadline for contractors to submit bids is 12 July, according to sources.

    Aramco issued a solicitation of interest (SoI) for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project in mid-November, with contractors submitting responses by 30 November, MEED previously reported.

    UK-headquartered Wood Group has carried out the front-end engineering and design (feed) for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project.

    The Jafurah basin is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, spanning around 17,000 square kilometres. The reserve is estimated to contain 229 trillion cubic feet of gas and 75 billion stock-tank barrels of condensate.

    Aramco recently brought the greenfield Jafurah gas processing plant online, with a production capacity of 450 million cf/d, marking the commissioning of the first phase of its $100bn capital expenditure programme to produce gas from the unconventional resource base.

    The Saudi energy giant had earlier stated it expected to start gas production at Jafurah in 2025, with the intention of progressively ramping up to 2 billion cf/d of sales gas, 420 million cf/d of ethane and 630,000 barrels a day (b/d) of high-value liquids by 2030.

    Aramco has said that its unconventional gas programme, at peak production, is expected to generate electricity equivalent to displacing 500,000 b/d of oil.

    Jafurah gas development phases

    Along with overseeing the main tending exercise for EPC works on the fifth expansion phase project at Jafurah, Aramco also recently kicked off EPC works on the fourth expansion phase.

    MEED reported in April that Aramco had selected Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) as the main contractor for the Jafurah fourth expansion phase, which sources estimate could be valued at around $1.5bn.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project involves the EPC of two gas compression trains at the giant gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be able to process up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Aramco has, however, only issued a draft letter of award for the project to L&TEH, based on which the contractor has started EPC works. The official contract award and final investment decision (FID) are pending, according to sources.

    Progress on the fourth and fifth expansion phases of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme continues, as EPC work on the third phase advances.

    In July 2024, Aramco issued a non-binding letter of intent to a consortium of Tecnicas Reunidas and Sinopec Group for the EPC contract for the Jafurah third expansion phase. The value of the contract is estimated to be $2.24bn.

    The objective of the third expansion phase of Jafurah is similar to that of the fourth phase of development. The main scope of work involves the EPC of three gas compression plants, each with a capacity of 200 million cf/d.

    The third phase’s scope of work also includes building a 230kV substation to power the new gas compression plants and installing other utilities units, piping systems and safety equipment.

    The selection of contractors for the third expansion phase of the Jafurah development came within weeks of Aramco officially awarding EPC contracts for the second expansion phase, which aims to raise its processing potential to up to 2 billion cf/d of raw gas produced from the Jafurah field.

    Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of about $12.4bn, for the second expansion phase on 30 June 2024.

    The EPC scope of work on the project involves the construction of gas compression facilities and associated pipelines and the expansion of the Jafurah gas plant, including the construction of gas processing trains, utilities, sulphur and export facilities, Aramco said in a statement.

    The main EPC packages of the Jafurah second expansion phase project, their estimated values and the selected contractors are:

    • Package 1 – gas processing plant and main process units – $2.9bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • Package 2 – utilities and offsites – $2.4bn: Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • Package 3 – gas compression units – $1bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon
    • Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) package 1 – NGL fractionation trains – $1bn: Tecnicas Reunidas / Refining & Chemical Engineering Group (part of China’s Sinopec Group)
    • Riyas NGL package 2 – utilities, storage and export facilities – $2.2bn: Tecnicas Reunidas/Refining & Chemical Engineering Group
    • Riyas NGL package 6 – site preparation works – $107m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners (Saudi Arabia)
    • Riyas NGL package 9 – temporary construction facilities – $80m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners

    Aramco kickstarted EPC works on the first phase of the programme in November 2021 by awarding $10bn-worth of subsurface and EPC contracts.

    In February 2020, Aramco received a capital expenditure grant of $110bn from the Saudi government for the long-term phased development of the Jafurah unconventional gas resource base.

    The Jafurah unconventional gas development programme is central to Aramco’s goal of increasing gas production capacity. The target has recently been raised to 80%, with 2021 as the baseline, up from 60%, to meet rising domestic and global demand. The company expects life-cycle investment in Jafurah to exceed $100bn.

    Prior to the commissioning of the Jafurah gas plant in the last quarter of this year, Aramco completed an $11bn lease-and-leaseback deal in late October for gas processing facilities at the Jafurah unconventional gas reserve with a consortium led by funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), part of US asset manager BlackRock.

    Under the transaction, which Aramco started in August, a newly formed subsidiary – Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC) – will lease development and usage rights to the Jafurah field gas processing plant and the Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation facility.

    After 20 years, JMGC will lease the assets back to Aramco. JMGC will collect a tariff payable by Aramco in exchange for granting Aramco the exclusive right to receive, process and treat raw gas from the Jafurah resource base.

    Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, while the GIP-led consortium will hold the remaining 49%. Investors participating in the GIP-led consortium include Hassana Investment Company, The Arab Energy Fund (TAEF) and Aberdeen Investcorp Infrastructure Partners, as well as other institutional investors from North and Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17385386/main5205.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt approves plans for 869MW wind power plant

    22 June 2026

    Egypt’s Cabinet has approved plans for French renewable energy developer Voltalia to develop an 869MW wind power project.

    The scheme will be built on land allocated by the New & Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), according to a statement posted by the Cabinet following its most recent weekly meeting.

    Voltalia will make an initial investment of $53m and has committed to achieving commercial operations by December 2028.

    Voltalia already operates the 32MW Ra solar plant at the Benban solar complex in Aswan and is expanding its renewable energy portfolio in Egypt.

    Previously, in 2024, it signed a framework agreement with Egypt’s Taqa Arabia to develop a green hydrogen and renewable power cluster near the Ain Sokhna port in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

    The green hydrogen development is planned in two phases, each centred on a 500MW electrolyser powered by more than 1.3GW of renewable generation capacity. The project, still in its early stages, is expected to produce up to 350,000 tonnes of green ammonia a year.

    Voltalia’s partnership with Taqa Arabia also includes plans for a 3.2GW hybrid wind and solar project to repower the existing 545MW Zafarana wind farm in Suez Governorate. The Cabinet statement did not indicate whether the newly approved 869MW wind project forms part of that proposal.

    Meanwhile, the developer won another contract, earlier this year, to develop a 132MW solar power project in Tunisia’s Gabes region.

    The project, known as Wadi, marked Voltalia’s third major solar award in the country after the Sagdoud and Menzel Habib projects awarded in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17376730/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall