meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Qatar tenders Smaisma infrastructure contract

    17 September 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract inviting construction firms to bid for the remaining works on roads and infrastructure in the small seaside town of Smaisma.

    The contract covers package two in the south area of Smaisma, located 52 kilometres (km) north of Hamad International airport.

    The scope of work includes the completion of the remaining works and remedial works on three zones. Each zone is further divided into three sub-zones.

    The scope also covers the remaining works on road C1017.

    The contract duration is two years from the start of construction works.

    The tender was floated on 15 September with a bid submission date of 28 October.

    The latest notice follows the tendering for the construction of roads and infrastructure in Wadi Al-Banat North (Zone 70).

    Market overview

    After 2019, there was a consistent year-on-year decline in contract awards in Qatar’s construction and transport sectors. The total value of awards in that year was $13.5bn, but by 2023 it had fallen to just over $1.2bn.

    In 2024, the value of project contract awards increased to $1.7bn, bucking the downward trend in the market in the preceding four years.

    Of last year’s figure, the construction sector accounted for contract awards of over $1.2bn, while transport contract awards were about $200m.

    There are strategic projects in the bidding phase in Qatar worth more than $5bn, and these are expected to provide renewed impetus to the construction and transportation market, presenting opportunities for contractors in the near term.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14682452/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dragon Oil to boost exploration and production in Egypt

    17 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai-based Dragon Oil has signed a deal with the state-owned national oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), agreeing to increase exploration and production activities in the Gulf of Suez.

    Under the terms of the agreement, Dragon Oil will make investments worth about $30m.

    This will fund activities including a programme to drill at least two new wells in the East El-Hamd area.

    Abdulkarim Ahmed Al-Mazmi, the acting chief executive of Dragon Oil, said: “The signing of this agreement reaffirms Dragon Oil’s commitment to strengthening its strategic presence in the Arab Republic of Egypt and supporting EGPC’s efforts to develop energy resources in the Gulf of Suez region, in line with the company’s vision for growth and sustainability.”

    Dragon Oil is wholly owned by Emirates National Oil Company, which is fully owned by the Government of Dubai.

    Al-Mamzi said that the new investments are part of Dragon Oil’s broader strategy to expand in regional markets and to strengthen its position in the oil and gas sector, in line with the directions of the government of the UAE, and in particular the Government of Dubai.

    The agreement was signed at the EGPC headquarters in Cairo.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14680456/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Construction launched for final major projects of Iraq’s GGIP

    17 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Officials have announced the start of construction on Iraq’s Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) and the full field development of the Ratawi oil field, which is also known as the Artarwi field.

    The two projects are the two last major contracts of the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP).

    The GGIP is led by France’s TotalEnergies, which is the operator and has a 45% stake in the project.

    Its partners are Iraq’s state-owned Basra Oil Company, which has a 30% stake, and QatarEnergy, which has a 25% stake.

    An event in Baghdad to mark the launch of the two projects was attended by senior officials including Patrick Pouyanne, the chairman and chief executive of TotalEnergies; and Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, as well as the president and chief executive of QatarEnergy.

    In a statement, TotalEnergies said: “All four parts (natural gas, solar, oil, water) of the GGIP are now in the execution phase.”

    The CSSP will be built on Iraq's coast, near the town of Um Qasr. It will process and transport 5 million barrels a day (b/d) of seawater to the main oil fields in southern Iraq.

    Treated seawater will be substituted for the freshwater currently taken from the Tigris, Euphrates and aquifers to maintain pressure in the oil wells.

    The project is expected to help alleviate water stress in the region and free up to 250,000 cubic metres of freshwater a day for irrigation and local agriculture needs, according to TotalEnergies.

    The Ratawi redevelopment was launched in September 2023. Phase one aims to increase production to 120,000 b/d of oil and is expected to come on stream by early 2026.

    The launch of phase two, the full field development, will enable production to be increased to 210,000 b/d starting in 2028, with no routine flaring, according to TotalEnergies.

    In a statement, it said that all 160,000 cubic feet a day (cf/d) of associated gas produced will be fully processed by the 300,000 cf/d Gas Midstream Project (GMP), the construction of which began in early 2025.

    The GMP, which will also treat previously flared gas from two other fields in southern Iraq, will deliver processed gas into the national grid, where it will fuel power plants with a production capacity of approximately 1.5GW, providing electricity to 1.5 million Iraqi households.

    An early production facility to process 50,000 cf/d of associated gas will start in early 2026, together with the Ratawi phase one oil production.

    Pouyanne said: “We are delighted today to award the two final contracts of the GGIP, in particular the seawater treatment plant, which has been long awaited by the oil industry in Iraq.

    “In less than two years since the GGIP effective date in August 2023, TotalEnergies and its partners have fully executed their commitment towards the people of Iraq and launched all projects included in the multi-energy GGIP project, the best showcase of TotalEnergies' transition strategy.

    “All these projects will bring a significant contribution to the Iraq economy and employ during the construction phase 7,000 Iraqi nationals.

    “Furthermore, I am proud to confirm that the first phase of the associated gas, oil and solar projects will start up as soon as early 2026.”

    Turkiye’s Enka has signed a contract to develop a central processing facility at the Ratawi oil field as part of the second phase of the field’s development.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14680455/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Saudi drilling firm raises acquisition offer for Dubai rival

    16 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia-based ADES International Holding has increased its offer to buy Dubai-based, Oslo-listed rival Shelf Drilling to 18.50 Norwegian Krone ($1.88) per share, representing a 6% increase in the acquisition’s enterprise value.

    The offer was revised from an earlier deal of $1.42 per share or a total of $379.33m.

    ADES International Holding, a subsidiary of ADES Holding Company, signed a transaction agreement to acquire all issued and outstanding shares of Shelf Drilling through a cash merger, with ADES International Cayman (BidCo) also participating in the proposed merger.

    According to a joint statement, irrevocable commitments have now been provided by additional shareholders, including China Merchants, Anchorage Capital Group and Magallanes Value Investors, which, combined with ADES’ 17.9% stake in Shelf Drilling, represent 53.4% of the outstanding shares in the company.

    ADES International Holding raised its offer for Shelf Drilling after reassessing the company’s current market performance and revising its estimated annual cost synergies upwards by $10m, bringing the total to $50m-$60m.

    All other terms of the merger remain unchanged, along with the transaction timetable, with closing expected to occur in the last quarter of the year.

    Shelf Drilling is incorporated under the laws of the Cayman Islands, with its corporate headquarters in Dubai.

    In April this year, ADES International Holding secured a 10-year extension for one of its standard offshore jack-up rigs from Saudi Aramco, valued at approximately $290m.

    The contract for the offshore jack-up marks the re-entry of ADES International Holding into the Saudi offshore oil and gas market. The rig was among six jack-ups whose charters were suspended by Aramco last April.

    ADES International Holding has secured deployments for three of those jack-ups in Qatar, Thailand and Egypt, while the fourth was recently redeployed to Thailand.

    ADES International Holding also said it has increased its footprint since the start of 2025 by securing an offshore drilling job off the coast of Nigeria, marking its entry into West Africa.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14676037/main0952.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman tenders Rusayl power cable project

    16 September 2025

    State-owned Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) has opened bidding for the construction of the cable connection from the Rusayl power plant (GT-5 & GT-6) to the Rusayl industrial grid station.

    The tender is open to local companies with tender board registration and valid commercial registration, the authority said.

    Bids must be submitted electronically, with hard copies of the bid bond and other documents delivered to OETC’s head office in Muscat.

    The last date to obtain documents is 23 September, with bids due by 7 October. 

    The new cable tender forms part of OETC’s strategy to expand transmission in line with industrial growth. The Rusayl power plant, located near Muscat, is one of Oman’s key natural gas-fired generation facilities and supplies electricity to the Main Interconnected System (MIS), the country’s largest grid.

    The adjoining Rusayl Industrial City is a major manufacturing hub hosting companies across chemicals, textiles, electrical materials and food production, which has driven steady growth in power demand.

    OETC is undertaking several major transmission projects to reinforce the MIS. These include the construction of new 132kV grid stations, network reinforcements around Muscat and the Masirah Island interconnection, which is valued at about RO72m ($187m).

    Local firm Bahwan Engineering won the main contract for this project and started construction earlier this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14675720/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall