Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach
20 December 2023
The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.
However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.
With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.
The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.
“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.
Phasing down or out
After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.
According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.
Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.
As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement.
“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.
“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”
Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.
Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.
Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.
Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues
Next steps
Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.
A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.
“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”
The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.
The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young.
“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”
Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.
There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young.
Loss and damage
The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.
The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.
It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.
Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.
Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.
Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.
Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.
“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements.
“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”
The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”
Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund
Coalition of the willing
Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.
From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.
An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges.
“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Oman’s Barka 5 IWP solar plant begins full operations1 May 2026
Spain’s GS Inima has begun permanent operations at the solar photovoltaic (PV) plant serving the Barka 5 independent water project (IWP) in Oman.
The solar facility is the third of its kind in Oman to power a large-scale desalination facility through a self-supply model.
In a statement, GS Inima said it will provide up to 50% of the desalination plant’s electricity needs during daytime operations, improving efficiency and reducing reliance on external power sources.
The PV plant has an installed capacity of 6.5MWp. It is designed to optimise energy consumption at the adjacent reverse osmosis desalination facility.
The project was developed by GS Inima in collaboration with local firm Nafath Renewable Energy as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor. China-based OCA Global provided owner’s engineering services.
The Barka 5 IWP has a desalination capacity of approximately 100,000 cubic metres a day.
GS Inima won the contract to develop the Barka 5 IWP project in November 2020. As previously reported, financial close was reached in 2022, and construction of the facility was completed in 2024.
The self-supply solar PV plant is equipped with 10,504 bifacial modules supplied by China’s Jinko Solar. These are mounted on fixed structures provided by Mibet Energy.
Power is managed through 18 Sungrow inverters with a total capacity of 320kWac each, while electricity is fed into the desalination plant through an 11kV connection.
The integration of solar power supports the efficiency of the Barka 5 facility, which has an energy consumption rate of 2.7kWh per cubic metre.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16645971/main.jpg -
Qiddiya receives high-speed rail PPP prequalifications1 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.
This follows the submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package on 16 April, as reported by MEED.
The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.
The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.
In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.
In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.
Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16641057/main.gif -
Bid deadline extensions hint at tighter project market1 May 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThere has been a steady run of bid deadline extensions across major power and water projects in recent weeks.
The latest is the Al-Dibdibah and Al-Shagaya solar independent power producer (IPP) plant in Kuwait, where the submission date has been moved again to 31 May, following an earlier shift from February to the end of April. Similarly, bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP has also been extended.
In Bahrain, bidding for the 1.2GW Sitra IWPP has been pushed back by another month to 17 May, having already been under main contract tender since last August.
Meanwhile, in Dubai, contractors have been given additional time to submit bids for both the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant expansion and a dams rehabilitation project in Hatta.
Individually, these shifts are not unusual, and extensions are a routine part of the procurement cycle, especially with large, capital-intensive schemes.
However, amid regional tensions and increasingly complex risk profiles, stakeholders are having to weigh up how much they can absorb, whether that is performance guarantees, financing exposure or delivery risk.
For contractors and developers, this could mean looking more closely at supply chains, insurance costs and the potential for disruption. Lenders, too, are likely taking a more measured view on long-term exposure.
This caution can show up in the bid process. More internal approvals, more conservative pricing, and in some cases, perhaps a hesitation to commit altogether.
At the same time, strong pipelines across the GCC mean contractors are not short of work. Firms can afford to be selective, focusing on projects where risk and return are better aligned.
Clients, in turn, face a choice. Push ahead with more limited competition or extend and try to draw in stronger participation. Most appear to be opting for the latter.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640998/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia launches $2bn Jawharat Al-Arous project1 May 2026
Saudi Arabia has launched Jawharat Al-Arous, an SR8bn ($2bn) private-sector-led residential development in north Jeddah.
The scheme covers 107 million square metres and comprises 18 residential neighbourhoods planned to accommodate more than 700,000 residents. It will provide more than 80,000 residential and commercial plots.
The masterplan also includes 41 government-backed infrastructure and service zones to support large-scale urban expansion.
The project was unveiled by Mecca Region Governor Khalid Al-Faisal and will be overseen by Saud Bin Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz.
According to a recent report by real estate firm Cavendish Maxwell, Jeddah’s residential stock stood at about 1.09 million units at the end of 2025, following the completion of around 4,000 units that year.
An expanding pipeline of about 18,000 units in 2026 and 22,000 units in 2027 is expected to bring total stock to around 1.14 million units by 2027, gradually adding supply without destabilising market equilibrium.
GlobalData expects the Saudi construction industry to grow by 3.6% in real terms in 2026, supported by increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
The residential construction sector is forecast to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2026 and to record an average annual growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by Saudi Vision 2030’s goal of increasing homeownership from 65.4% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, including through the delivery of 600,000 homes by 2030.
MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:
> COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
> GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
> BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
> UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
> POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
> WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
> TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure pushTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640863/main.png -
Damage to US bases in region expected to cost more than $15bn1 May 2026
The $25bn estimate a Pentagon official gave US lawmakers on 29 April did not include the cost of repairing damage to US bases in the Middle East, and the real cost of the war is likely to be between $40bn and $50bn, according to CNN.
That would put the cost of repairing bases and replacing destroyed assets at between $15bn and $25bn.
Jules Hurst III, the Pentagon official serving as the agency’s comptroller, told the House Armed Services Committee that “most” of the $25bn he cited had been spent on munitions. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to say whether the figure included repairs to damaged US bases.
Iranian strikes across the Gulf in the early days of the war significantly damaged at least nine US military sites in 48 hours, hitting facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.
Six US servicemembers were killed in an attack on a command post in Kuwait, and 20 more were injured.
Three sources told CNN that the figure provided to the House Armed Services Committee did not include the cost of rebuilding US military installations and replacing destroyed assets.
One source said the true cost would likely be between $40bn and $50bn.
US contractors such as KBR and Fluor, as well as local firms, are likely to be among the leading contenders for contracts to repair and rebuild US bases in the region.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16638663/main.gif