Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach
20 December 2023
The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.
However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.
With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.
The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.
“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.
Phasing down or out
After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.
According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.
Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.
As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement.
“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.
“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”
Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.
Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.
Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.
Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues
Next steps
Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.
A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.
“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”
The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.
The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young.
“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”
Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.
There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young.
Loss and damage
The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.
The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.
It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.
Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.
Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.
Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.
Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.
“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements.
“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”
The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”
Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund
Coalition of the willing
Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.
From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.
An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges.
“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
-
Doosan confirms Saudi Jafurah 2 cogen contract2 June 2026
-
-
-
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Kuwait receives bids for Al-Khairan phase one IWPP
2 June 2026
Two developer consortiums have submitted bids for the first phase of Kuwait’s Al-Khairan independent water and power producer (IWPP) project, according to a source.
Bids were received by the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) on 1 June.
The facility will have a capacity of 1,800MW and 150,000 cubic metres a day of desalinated water. It will be located in Al-Khairan, adjacent to the Al-Zour South thermal plant.
The bidders include:
- Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) / A H Al-Sagar & Brothers (Saudi Arabia)
- Acwa (Saudi Arabia) / Gulf Investment Corporation (Kuwait)
The Al-Khairan IWPP is being procured by Kapp in partnership with the Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).
The main contract was tendered last September. Three consortiums and two individual companies were previously prequalified to participate in the tender.
Ernst & Young, BNP Paribas, AtkinsRealis and Addleshaw Goddard are financial advisers on the project. Chadbourne & Parke is acting as legal adviser.
The winning bidder will sign a set of public-private partnership agreements covering financing, design, construction, operation and transfer of the project. The energy conversion and water-purchase agreement is expected to cover a 25-year supply period.
Future phases
The Al-Khairan IWPP project is expected to run on low-sulphur fuel oil as the primary fuel and to accommodate crude oil, gas oil and natural gas as backup fuels. Future phases will further expand capacity.
It is understood that the estimated $750m second phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP project will add a further 1,800MW of generation capacity through a combined-cycle gas-fired power plant.
The project, first mooted over a decade ago, remains in the early development stages, with no plans currently to advance to procurement in 2026, a source said.
According to the source, the immediate focus is on advancing plans for the 3,600MW Nuwaiseeb power and water desalination IWPP project.
The Nuwaiseeb IWPP plant will have a desalination capacity of 75 million imperial gallons a day.
Kapp plans to release a transaction advisory tender for the project by the end of the year.
> Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17072685/main.jpg -
Doosan confirms Saudi Jafurah 2 cogen contract
2 June 2026
South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility has confirmed it has signed an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract worth about $556m for the second phase of the Jafurah combined heat and power (CHP) plant in Saudi Arabia.
The project is being developed by Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) in partnership with Saudi Aramco.
Doosan said the contract covers design, equipment supply, installation, construction and commissioning of the facility.
The Jafurah CHP phase 2 project will be built near the Jafurah gas field, about 400 kilometres east of Riyadh. Once operational, it will generate 330MW of electricity and produce 465 tonnes of steam an hour for the nearby gas field.
According to the firm, the project’s main steam turbine will be supplied by Doosan Skoda Power, a subsidiary of Doosan Enerbility.
WSP is acting as the project management consultant for the project, which is scheduled for completion in 2029.
The Jafurah gas development is part of Aramco’s $3.2bn unconventional resources programme, which aims to develop shale gas in three areas. Jafurah lies southeast of Ghawar, the world’s largest conventional oil field.
The programme is part of Riyadh’s plans under Vision 20230 to ensure the kingdom remains self-sufficient in gas supply amid rising demand from the residential and industrial power sectors.
Jafurah phase one
In February 2025, MEED exclusively reported that talks were under way to expand the capacity of the $500m Jafurah cogeneration independent steam and power plant (ISPP).
Construction works were completed on the facility last November.
At the time of its procurement, the plant’s first phase was to have a power capacity of 270-320MW, and a low-pressure (LP) steam demand of 77-166 thousand pounds an hour (klb/hr) and high-pressure (HP) steam demand of 29-126 klb/hour by 2023.
The LP and HP steam demand will increase to 283-373 klb/hr and 66-321 klb/hr by 2027, respectively.
The oil giant issued the letter of award to Kepco for the contract to develop the Jafurah ISPP scheme in July 2022.
Kepco subsequently awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction the project’s EPC contract.
US/India-based Synergy Consulting provided financial advisory services to Kepco on its bid.
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) served as the client’s financial adviser for the project. Germany’s Fichtner Consulting Engineers is technical consultant, while the UK’s Wood Group is project management consultant.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17072199/main.jpg -
Al-Mabanee submits lowest bids for Kuwait infrastructure
2 June 2026
Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has opened commercial bids for two major infrastructure and public buildings packages at South Al-Mutlaa Residential City.
Local firm Al-Mabanee United Company has emerged as the lowest bidder for both contracts, submitting combined offers worth KD44m. Both packages entail the construction, completion and maintenance of services, infrastructure works and public buildings for different district centres within the city.
The first contract covers the infrastructure and public buildings for the N3 District Centre. PAHW received proposals from eight bidders, with Al-Mabanee United Company submitting the lowest price at KD20.9m. The second-lowest offer was submitted by The Contractor General Trading & Contracting Company at KD22.4m, followed by Golden Engineering Group for General Trading & Contracting at KD22.7m, though Golden Engineering Group was flagged for not providing a bid bond.
Al-Khonaini General Trading & Contracting Company, operating as Inshat Al-Khonaini, ranked fourth with a bid of KD22.7m, followed closely by Kuwait Industrial Centre Company at KD22.8m. Combined Group Contracting Company submitted a bid of KD23.8m, Al-Dar Engineering & Construction Company bid KD25.7m, and China’s Sichuan Road & Bridge Group Corporation submitted the highest active proposal at KD29m.
The second contract is for identical infrastructure and public building works at the N1 District Centre. Al-Mabanee United Company submitted the lowest bid of KD22.8m. Its closest competitor was The Contractor General Trading & Contracting Company, which submitted an offer of KD23.9m.
Al-Khonaini General Trading & Contracting Company came in third with a bid of KD24.2m, followed by Kuwait Industrial Centre Company at KD24.4m and Golden Engineering Group for General Trading & Contracting at KD24.4m. Combined Group Contracting Company placed a bid of KD26m, Al-Dar Engineering & Construction Company bid KD26.5m, and United Construction Company, known as Al-Inshat Al-Muttahida, submitted an offer of KD 30.9m. Al-Ghanim International General Trading & Contracting filed the highest bid at KD344m and was also noted for lacking a bid bond.
South Mutlaa Residential City is a large-scale planned development designed to accommodate around 400,000 residents in a modern, fully serviced urban environment. Once completed, it will offer contemporary housing alongside extensive logistical services and a wide range of public and commercial areas, including hospitals, schools and other social services.
The project also includes major infrastructure works such as approximately 150 kilometres of roads and related structures, lighting and other public works, as well as integrated systems for water distribution, rainwater collection and sewage. In addition, it will provide the civil infrastructure needed for electricity distribution, telecommunications networks and traffic control to support a well-connected, functional city.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17071938/main.gif -
Local developer secures finance for three Riyadh projects
2 June 2026
Qimam Noshoz for Real Estate Development Company, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Banan Real Estate Company, has signed a sharia-compliant credit facility agreement worth SR84m ($22.4m) with Riyad Bank to fund three commercial, hospitality and sports developments in the kingdom.
The financing agreement is split into two distinct tranches to align with the projects’ development timelines. The first tranche consists of SR49m with a maturity duration of seven years, while the remaining SR35m has been secured for an eight-year term.
Qimam Noshoz will utilise the capital to fund construction works for the Al-Rahmaniyah Gem and Al-Wadi District Gem projects. Both of these projects are already leased to the fitness operator Armah Sports Company. The other project is an independent hotel located within the Al-Wadi District.
The Al-Wadi development is designed as an integrated commercial complex spanning approximately 7,818.5 square metres of land, with a built-up area of about 975 square metres. It includes a men’s gym, a women’s gym and a hotel building.
The Al-Rahmaniyah project is an integrated commercial development combining fitness facilities with retail. The asset features men’s and women’s gyms operating alongside an independent commercial zone.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17071628/main.jpg -
SLB wins $385m contract for Kuwait oil research centre
2 June 2026
Schlumberger Oilfield Eastern, a unit of the US-headquartered oilfield services company SLB, has been awarded a KD118m ($385m) contract to develop an oil and gas research centre in Kuwait.
The contract was awarded by the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC), according to a report by Kuwait’s Al-Rai newspaper.
The Ahmadi Innovation Valley (AIV) project is planned as an advanced research and innovation hub equipped with specialised facilities and technical teams focused on applied research for Kuwait’s oil and gas sector.
The contract was awarded after the Higher Purchase Committee (HPC) of Kuwait’s national oil and gas company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) determined the bid to be compliant with the project’s technical and commercial requirements.
In February 2025, KOC signed memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with five international oilfield service companies to support the development of the AIV initiative.
These companies were:
- SLB (US)
- Baker Hughes (US)
- Weatherford (US)
- Halliburton (US)
- National Energy Services Reunited (US)
Under the preliminary agreements, each of the five companies agreed to establish a world-class research and development centre at the project site, focused on helping KOC meet challenges in the upstream sector.
KOC’s CEO Ahmad Jaber Al-Eidan had said in February 2025 that the project will enable Kuwait to keep pace with global transformations while investing in advanced technologies to ensure the sector’s sustainability and achieve operational excellence.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17063475/main.gif