meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Bahrain retenders Hawar desalination works

    25 September 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has retendered a contract to develop a seawater intake and outfall system for a planned seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant on Hawar Island.

    The scope includes constructing a seawater intake facility with a capacity of 1,515 cubic metres an hour and a seawater outfall structure with a diffuser system.

    The bid deadline is 21 October.

    The original tender received just two bids from Noble Development (UAE) and Al-Hassanain Company (Bahrain). These were opened in December 2025.

    The reissued tender is expected to attract bids from Al-Hassanain Company, Noble Development, UK-based engineering consultancy HR Wallingford, Bahrain Mechanical & Diving Services and Ocean Diving & Marine Services (Bahrain).

    As previously reported, the marine works project is linked to two other contracts: one covering the main Hawar desalination plant and another involving the construction of two ground storage tanks and the installation of water transmission pumps.

    Malaysia-based Sparco Engineering recently won the engineering, procurement and construction contract for the desalination plant project after submitting the lowest bid last year.

    The plant is designed to produce 1 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) of potable water.

    The Hawar Islands form an archipelago of 16 desert islands and islets located approximately 26 kilometres southeast of Ras Al-Bar in Bahrain. The desalination plant is intended to support water supply requirements on the islands.

    The third package linked with the SWRO project was tendered last November, with Greece-headquartered Ergotem submitting the lowest bid of $1.92m.

    This contract covers the construction of two steel ground storage tanks with a capacity of 1 million gallons each, pumping stations, motors, pipelines and associated facilities.

    As of August, the contract had not yet been awarded.

    It is understood that Sparco Engineering will be required to ensure that the plant’s design and construction align technically and operationally with these two projects so that all three components function together as one integrated system.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19993971/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dubai property bubble risk rises as price growth stalls

    25 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s residential property market remains in elevated bubble-risk territory after a sharp slowdown in price growth, according to UBS.

    The emirate’s housing boom came to an abrupt halt at the onset of the regional conflict, the Swiss bank said in its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 report. Inflation-adjusted house prices have fallen back to mid-2025 levels, after real growth of more than 10% in 2025.

    Dubai scored 1.16 on the index, up on last year, placing it fourth among the 23 cities covered. Only Zurich and Tokyo, at 1.69 and 1.54 respectively, are classed as high risk. Miami, Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon join Dubai in the elevated category, which covers scores between 1.0 and 1.5.

    Real prices in Dubai rose by 0.4% in the year to Q2 2026, while real rents fell by 4%. UBS said bubble risk remained elevated despite some easing since March.

    Ownership costs

    UBS said existing tenants were likely to take advantage of the pause in price growth and, in some cases, price concessions to buy homes. Despite elevated mortgage rates, Dubai remains one of the few markets where ownership is relatively attractive given the high cost of renting, according to the bank.

    A skilled service worker in Dubai needs about five years of average income to buy a 60-square-metre apartment near the city centre, compared with about 15 years in Hong Kong and 11 years in London. It takes 16 years of rent to pay for an equivalent apartment, one of the lowest ratios in the study. UBS attributed the low price-to-rent ratios in Dubai, Sao Paulo and the US cities surveyed to less regulated rental markets and higher interest rates, as well as elevated risk premiums in Dubai and Sao Paulo.

    The bank said uncertainty over whether the inflow of high-income earners would recover was weighing on the premium segment. It added that Dubai’s structural advantages, including its strategic location and its appeal as an international business hub, remained intact, and that an improvement in the geopolitical environment was likely to support a rapid recovery in market sentiment and price expectations.

    Supply is a further source of uncertainty. Some developments have stalled, and others may be delivered later than planned, although UBS said the market remained exposed to heightened volatility because of persistent concerns about structural oversupply.

    Global slowdown

    Across the cities analysed, real residential prices rose by an average of 0.5% in the year, down from 1.4% in mid-2025. Seoul recorded the strongest real growth, at 11%, while Toronto and Vancouver fell by about 10%.

    The report also points to Gulf capital supporting other markets. UBS said interest from Middle Eastern buyers could further lift prices in Geneva, and that investors from the Middle East, the US and Asia had supported London’s prime segment.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19987757/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • UAE vehicle manufacturing push moves into production

    25 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Chinese-linked carmaker Rox has begun vehicle production at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad). The start-up represents the most significant output so far from the UAE’s efforts to build an automotive manufacturing industry.

    The first three Rox Adamas vehicles, carrying the Made in the Emirates mark, came off the production line at the company’s new Abu Dhabi facility in early September. The 10,000-square-metre plant is expected to reach an initial capacity of 20,000 vehicles a year by 2027, rising to 300,000 vehicles a year by 2030.

    The facility can sub-assemble more than 80 types of vehicle components and also carries out complete vehicle assembly, calibration, rain and road testing, and final inspection. Rox moved its global headquarters to the UAE last year and plans to supply local and export markets.

    The project forms part of Rox’s partnership with the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (Adio) and is supported by the UAE Ministry of Industry & Advanced Technology. Kezad Group signed the lease agreement for the facility in May.

    Programme targets

    The Rox plant is the first major output of a state-led strategy that has gathered pace over the past 18 months. Adio launched its automotive programme at the Make it in the Emirates forum in May 2025, with the aim of creating a hub for vehicle manufacturing and assembly, research and development, restoration, auctions and luxury cars.

    The programme is projected to contribute AED100bn ($27.2bn) to Abu Dhabi’s GDP by 2045, attract more than AED8bn ($2.2bn) in foreign direct investment and create 7,000 skilled jobs. Adio has also introduced an automotive artificial intelligence curriculum with universities to develop Emirati talent in the sector.

    In October last year, Adio and AD Ports Group agreed to work with Netherlands-based Stellantis to develop the emirate’s automotive ecosystem. The memorandum of understanding covers expansion into Middle East and Africa markets, an ecosystem for autonomous taxi services, and research into next-generation mobility technologies.

    Under the agreement, Stellantis will explore investment opportunities in Abu Dhabi, while Adio and AD Ports Group will provide market intelligence and logistics support. The announcements did not include a commitment to build a production facility.

    Kezad already hosts smaller electric vehicle (EV) operations. In 2024, UAE-headquartered NWTN signed a lease for a Kezad facility with capacity to assemble 5,000-10,000 semi-knocked-down EVs a year, with plans to expand to 50,000 units in a second phase.

    Trading hub

    Dubai has focused on vehicle trade rather than manufacturing. In November last year, Dubai Municipality signed a partnership agreement with DP World’s Economic Zones division to establish and manage the Dubai Auto Market, a 22 million-square-foot complex with more than 1,500 showrooms that is designed to handle over 800,000 new and used vehicles a year.

    Enabling works are under way, carried out by local contractor Rad International Road Construction, with US-based Aecom serving as project consultant. Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, first deputy ruler of Dubai, said at the launch that the project would foster a cluster of light industries for vehicle assembly and trade.

    The market builds on an established base. Jebel Ali Free Zone hosts more than 940 automotive and spare-parts companies, including Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen. In 2022, M Glory Group laid the foundation stone for a AED1.5bn ($408m) EV plant at Dubai Industrial City, with a planned capacity of 55,000 cars a year.

    Regional competition

    The UAE is not alone in pursuing automotive manufacturing. In Saudi Arabia, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns 70% of Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Middle East, which will roll out its first vehicle by Q4 2026 and targets annual production of 50,000 vehicles. Ceer, the kingdom’s first EV manufacturer, intends to roll its first vehicle off the production line in late 2026.

    Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy aims to attract three to four manufacturers capable of producing more than 300,000 vehicles a year within a single automotive cluster. In Qatar, JTA International Investment Holding said last month that it was working with the UK’s Watt Electric Vehicle Company to set up a factory.

    The two leading Gulf economies are taking different approaches. Saudi Arabia has relied on direct PIF shareholdings in manufacturers. In the UAE, investment offices, port groups and economic zone operators have led the effort, using land, logistics and incentives to attract privately owned carmakers.

    Scaling up is the next test. Rox’s plan to increase output fifteen-fold between 2027 and 2030 will show whether Abu Dhabi’s model can support volume manufacturing. Achieving it would give the UAE production capacity comparable to the level Saudi Arabia is targeting across its entire automotive cluster.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19986887/main.jpeg
    Colin Foreman
  • SAR prepares phosphate rail second section contract award

    25 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) is preparing to formally award another multibillion-riyal contract to double the tracks on the existing phosphate transport railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The contract covers construction works on the second section of the railway line, spanning more than 150 kilometres (km).

    The scope of work includes civil works, alignment modifications, track and loop construction, and associated infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, as well as enhancements to signalling and telecommunications systems.

    SAR floated the tender in February, and bids were submitted in April.

    SAR is making significant progress on its Phosphate 3 rail programme. Last month, MEED exclusively reported that SAR had awarded an estimated SR4bn-plus ($1.1bn) contract to add another track to the first section of the existing phosphate transport railway network.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track. It also covers support works for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The existing railway runs from the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair. The first-section works will cover about 100km, connecting the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. From there, it diverges into a line south to Riyadh and another line east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and support growth in industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including developing a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19983928/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Meraas awards $272m Nad Al-Sheba Gardens villas deal

    25 September 2026

    Dubai-based real estate developer Meraas Holding, part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a AED1bn ($272m) contract for the construction of the seventh phase of the Nad Al-Sheba Gardens community.

    The contract, which covers the delivery of 272 villas and townhouses, was awarded to local firm GCC Contracting.

    The scope of work includes 130 villas, 142 three-bedroom townhouses, and associated utilities and infrastructure.

    Construction has started, and the project is slated for completion in 2028.

    Last year, Meraas awarded a AED690m ($188m) contract for the construction of the fourth phase of the Nad Al-Sheba Gardens community in Dubai.

    Meraas awarded the contract to local firm Bhatia General Contracting.

    The scope of that contract covers the construction of 92 townhouses, 96 villas and two pool houses.

    In December last year, Meraas announced the eleventh and final phase of its Nad Al-Sheba Gardens residential community. This phase includes the development of 210 new villas and townhouses, as well as a school, located in the northwest corner of the development.

    According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, the UAE’s construction industry will register annual growth of 3.9% between 2025 and 2027, supported by investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, oil and gas, housing, industrial and tourism projects.

    The residential construction sector is expected to record an average annual growth rate of 2.7% between 2025 and 2028, supported by private investment in residential housing, along with government initiatives to meet rising demand.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19983032/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal