meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

20 December 2023

 

The 28th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28), helmed by the UAE’s Sultan al-Jaber, stopped short of recommending the phasing down of fossil fuels, which was on the wish list of half of the countries that ratified the Paris Agreement eight years earlier, and which were present at the 2023 climate summit in Dubai.

However, the conference scored a major victory by referencing, for the first time since Cop started, the need to transition away from fossil fuels to keep the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal alive.

With few exceptions, the Cop28 UAE climate agreement – or the UAE Consensus, as Al-Jaber prefers to call it – has been described by world leaders as historic.

The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change said the agreement signals the “beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance”.

“We are standing here in an oil country, surrounded by oil countries, and we made the decision saying let’s move away from oil and gas,” Denmark’s Climate & Energy Minister, Dan Jorgensen, said after the final climate text was adopted on 13 December.

Phasing down or out

After campaigning for the final text of the agreement to exclude the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels, reports say that Opec member Saudi Arabia appears satisfied with the outcome.

According to a report by Reuters, Saudi Arabia views the agreement as akin to a menu that allows every country to follow its own pathway to the energy transition.

Opec members account for close to 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves, along with about a third of global oil output. Phasing fossil fuels out threatens the members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues.

As expected, the least-developed countries and islands that are most vulnerable to climate change wanted more from the Cop28 agreement. 

“It reflects the very lowest possible ambition that we could accept, rather than what we know, according to the best available science, is necessary to urgently address the climate crisis,” said Senegal’s Climate Minister, Madeleine Diouf.

“The agreement highlights the vast gap between developing-country needs and the finance available, as well as underscoring rapidly dwindling fiscal space due to the debt crisis,” she explained. “Yet it fails to deliver a credible response to this challenge.”

Despite opposing views, various research and studies, including those conducted by the International Panel for Climate Change, confirm that human activities – with burning fossil fuels at the top of that list – contribute to global warming to a huge extent.

Taking the carbon from the environment, or replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon emitting alternatives, are seen as a key solution to keep the ocean levels from rising as icebergs dissolve, or to avoid extreme weather events such as droughts or flooding.

Some experts say that even the 1.5-degree-Celsius target will not entirely rule out the more frequent occurrences of catastrophic events, based on today’s environmental scenario, when the temperature is estimated to be at 1.06 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In September, for example, thousands of lives were lost in Derna, Libya, when a storm swept through the region. Experts said Storm Daniel drew energy from extremely warm seawater in the Mediterranean, causing unexpected heavy rainfall that overwhelmed two dams in the area.

Phasing fossil fuels out threatens Opec members that have not yet diversified their economies away from oil revenues

Next steps

Beyond the initial reactions and responses, many agree that the Cop28 text will provide momentum for a global energy transition, and will have a fair impact on hydrocarbons-producing countries in the Gulf.

A Dubai-based consultant focusing on energy projects and investments tells MEED: “It is a step in the right direction, and if the implementation leads to positive gains, it will allow confidence to deepen.

“There is a lot of talk about how it is watered down with regards to fossil fuel use, but we need to give the Middle Eastern countries the time to transition to new revenue sources, otherwise we only bring economic fragility to an already politically fragile region,” the consultant adds. “That is in nobody’s interest.”

The consultant warns against using the text as an excuse to put new money into polluting projects, however. “We need a more robust methodology for new capital commitment to ensure that it goes into clean projects,” she notes.

Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US, agrees. “I think the final language was obviously a concession to oil and gas producers, but also a push to make them more accountable,” she says.

The language implies a shift in demand. “Gulf producers reason that they will be able to meet the tail-end of that demand curve more efficiently and with fewer emissions than their competitors,” adds Young. 

“That logic has not changed, and the timeline is, of course, totally dependent on technology, finance and how quickly and in what geographies that demand curve moves.”

Over the short term, the Cop28 agreement is not expected to result in any real change to the Gulf economies, except in terms of domestic infrastructure, where momentum will likely grow for more renewables deployment; more carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); and new investment in – and export of – liquefied natural gas, ammonia and hydrogen.

There will also be continued competition for market share and market management of oil, according to Young. 

Loss and damage

The call to transition away from fossil fuels was not the only accomplishment at Cop28.

The agreement called on the parties to contribute to tripling renewable energy globally and doubling the global annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, as well as accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.

It also rallied the parties to reduce methane emissions and accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear and abatement and removal technologies such as CCUS, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, as well
as in the production of low-carbon hydrogen.

Equally important, Cop28 managed to secure $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the US-based Business Council for Sustainable Energy, tells MEED that the agreement on the Loss and Damage Fund early in Cop28 demonstrated a commitment by governments to assist the most vulnerable countries as they cope with the impacts of climate change.

Jacobson, like many others, expects the pledges – which some analysts say equate to only about 0.2 per cent of the necessary funding – to grow in time.

Unlike the funds that focus on climate mitigation and adaptation projects, the Loss and Damage Fund addresses the needs of communities or countries that have already sustained economic losses due to extreme weather events like floods, droughts or wildfires.

“The Loss and Damage Fund operationalisation has been critical … other financing pledges have also been important,” says Jessica Obeid, a partner at New Energy Consult. “Yet the critical factors are the processes [for] eligibility, among others, which remain to be seen, along with moving from pledges to commitments and disbursements. 

“In all cases, the commitments still fall short of the required financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.”

The next step for Cop will have to include developing transparent eligibility and allocation criteria and simplified application processes, as well as building domestic capacity, says Obeid. “Leveraging further financing is also key, and may require institutional and technical assistance.”

Cop28 secured $89bn in pledges covering climate finance, local climate action and the Loss and Damage Fund

Coalition of the willing 

Despite Cop28’s historic substance and intent, a healthy dose of cynicism remains. “Cop has been around for nearly 30 years, yet emissions have continued to increase year after year,” a UAE-based business leader tells MEED.

From this vantage point, the forging of a coalition of the willing – or several coalitions of the willing – could be the best way to deliver the energy transition without exceeding the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature goal.

An example of this is the more than 125 countries that have signed on to the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030. While such agreements are non-binding, a willing coalition will help encourage others to pursue those pledges. 

“That is an example of a coalition having a strong impact and working effectively to elevate the issue they are advocating for, and creating a platform for countries and stakeholders to identify emission reduction and adaptation strategies,” concludes Jacobson.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11376263/main.jpg
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Brent hits $112 a barrel following Saudi oil field attack

    22 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Oil prices climbed more than 3% on 22 October after a drone targeting Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field development killed two people and injured two others a day earlier, adding to concerns over energy supplies as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure intensified.

    Global benchmark Brent crude hit $112.30 in early trading on 22 October, but later pared gains and was trading at $111.52 a barrel as of 11am GST.

    Three residents and a Saudi citizen were killed in two separate incidents in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province on 21 October, authorities said, as attacks on the kingdom accelerated following an escalation of hostilities with the Iran-backed Houthi group in neighbouring Yemen.

    Overnight, the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen announced that it had intercepted and destroyed four drones in the Eastern Province.

    Saudi air defences intercepted a drone attempting to target a processing facility at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field development on the morning of 21 October, the Saudi Ministry of Energy said.

    The official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) carried a statement quoting an energy ministry official as saying the attempted attack resulted in the deaths of two residents – a Filipino and a Nepali – and injuries to two others – an Indian and a Pakistani – after debris fell due to the interception.

    Following the interception, a fire broke out in a vehicle belonging to a contractor at the Shaybah oil field, outside the facility’s perimeter, with no impact on operations.

    Dammam airport attack

    Separately, a Houthi attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam on the evening of 21 October killed an Indian resident and a Saudi citizen.

    Eight people were also injured in the attack, including a Saudi national, a Nepali, and two nationals each from India, Yemen and Bangladesh. Injuries ranged from minor to critical, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) said the next day.

    “The attack also caused property damage, the extent of which is currently being assessed. Further updates will be provided,” Gaca said, adding that operations had since resumed at Dammam airport.

    Saudi Arabia has come under sustained attack from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group in October, including strikes on Riyadh’s international airport in what authorities described as the kingdom’s deadliest incidents in years, as the war with the group escalates.

    The Houthi militias also struck an administrative building at Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, in the Eastern Province, on 13 October, resulting in a limited fire.

    The Houthi rebels opened a new front in the regional war between Iran and the US in mid-July, when they breached a four-year truce with Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s civil war, which began in 2014, and started attacking Saudi vessels and Aramco energy assets along the Red Sea, including repeated strikes on the Jizan refinery.

    The 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline operated by Aramco was also hit by Houthi missiles in September, and once directly by Iran in April.

    The East-West pipeline transports crude from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province oil fields to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu on the kingdom’s west coast. It has a pumping capacity of 7 million barrels a day.

    Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the East-West pipeline to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint and ship crude from its Red Sea coast. Riyadh has increasingly used the line to route exports away from Hormuz since the US-Iran conflict began on 28 February – a tactical advantage most of its Gulf neighbours lack.

    Aramco resumed crude exports via the pipeline at the start of October.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20841984/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Nebius agrees Neom AI data centre capacity deal

    22 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi artificial intelligence (AI) company Humain and data centre developer DataVolt have signed a preliminary framework agreement with Netherlands-based AI cloud company Nebius for up to 50MW of data centre capacity at Oxagon, Neom’s industrial city on the kingdom's Red Sea coast.

    Under the proposed agreement, Nebius will become an anchor customer at the planned AI data centre campus.

    The contemplated capacity represents half of the initial 100MW currently under construction, which forms part of a planned 360MW first phase.

    The capacity is expected to be commissioned in stages from the fourth quarter of 2027.

    Humain, which is owned by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, and DataVolt began construction on the initial 100MW facility at Oxagon in September. The wider campus is planned to reach 1.5GW of capacity.

    The agreement was signed during Nvidia’s GTC event in Berlin, held on 20-22 October. The US graphics processing unit (GPU) designer hosts the GPU Technology Conference (GTC) to showcase advances in AI and accelerated computing.

    Nebius is expected to deploy Nvidia-powered computing infrastructure at the Oxagon campus to support its AI cloud business and international customer base.

    The project combines Humain’s AI capabilities with DataVolt’s experience in developing, financing and operating digital infrastructure. It is intended to support large-scale AI and cloud workloads for Saudi and international customers.

    Oxagon is seeking to position itself as a location for energy-intensive digital infrastructure, supported by pre-zoned industrial land, power resources and subsea cable connectivity to Europe and Africa. The development is also expected to incorporate renewable energy and advanced cooling systems.

    The Oxagon campus builds on an agreement signed in February 2025 by Neom and DataVolt to develop data centre infrastructure at the site. That deal involved an investment of about $5bn and envisaged a 1.5GW development.

    In September 2025, DataVolt signed a memorandum of understanding with South Korea’s LG Electronics covering cooling systems for the Oxagon data centre project.

    DataVolt was founded in 2023 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi infrastructure developer Vision Invest. Humain was launched in May 2025 to develop capabilities across the AI value chain, including data centres, high-performance computing infrastructure, cloud platforms and AI models.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20837696/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh awards $301m Sheikh Jaber Road contract

    22 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded an estimated SR1.13bn ($301m) contract to local firm Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company to upgrade a section of Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road in the capital.

    The project covers the construction of an urban road about 3 kilometres (km) long, with a right-of-way width of about 120 metres.

    The scope of work includes the delivery of three interchanges featuring post-tensioned, voided-slab concrete bridges; a cut-and-cover tunnel; and three box culverts designated IC02, IC03 and IC04.

    The contract also encompasses pumping and lifting stations, stormwater drainage and irrigation networks, earthworks, asphalt paving, roadway lighting, power distribution systems, mechanically stabilised earth retaining walls and landscaping works.

    The award forms part of RCRC’s wider programme to upgrade Riyadh’s arterial road network, decongest critical bottlenecks and expand transportation capacity in the city ahead of Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

    The contract award follows RCRC’s appointment in May of a joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company and Turkiye’s IC Ictas for an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract to construct another section of Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road.

    That project covers 12km from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road and is a component of Riyadh’s Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.

    Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company has secured several contracts in recent months.

    In August, Saudi Arabian Railways awarded the contractor an estimated SR4bn-plus ($1.1bn) contract to add a second track to the first section of the existing phosphate railway in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The railway package covers about 100km between AZ1/Nariyah Yard and Ras Al-Khair. Works include track doubling, alignment modifications, utility bridges, culvert widening, hydrological structures, conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track, and enabling works for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20833960/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dewa International signs energy and infrastructure MoUs

    22 October 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority’s (Dewa) new development arm, Dewa International, has signed four memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with international partners to explore investment and project development opportunities in the energy, water and infrastructure sectors.

    The agreements, signed during Dubai’s Water, Energy, Technology and Environment Exhibition (Wetex 2026), follow the launch of the wholly owned subsidiary in June, as reported by MEED.

    At the time, the utility said the arm would be used to export Dubai’s energy and water infrastructure model, with a focus on developing conventional and clean energy projects for global markets.

    At Wetex, Dewa International signed an MoU with France’s EDF Power Solutions to explore potential joint participation in solar, wind, battery energy storage and pumped-storage hydropower projects.

    A separate agreement with China Energy International Group explores the company’s potential role as an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner for major energy, water and infrastructure projects. The MoU also covers cooperation in project development and EPC services.

    A further agreement with UK-based Capital Dynamics focuses on potential joint investments in operational clean energy assets in Europe. The parties will also explore establishing an investment vehicle for future clean energy infrastructure investments.

    Dewa International also signed a fourth agreement with Mumbai-Headquartered Tata Consultancy Services, exploring the company’s potential role as a technical consultancy partner. The scope covers technology strategy, information technology and operational technology integration, and asset performance management solutions.

    Dewa currently has almost $7bn-worth of power and water projects under execution across the UAE, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Its flagship Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park is the largest single-site solar park in the world. The utility is currently advancing the project’s seventh phase, with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) recently submitting the lowest bid for the project, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20828111/main0128.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • EGA’s Al-Taweelah restoration reaches 50% completion

    22 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has announced that half of the reduction cells at its Al-Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi, which sustained damage from Iranian attacks in late March, have been restarted.

    On 28 March, drone and missile attacks by Iran on Khalifa Economic Zone Abu Dhabi (Kezad), where the smelter is located, led to an emergency shutdown of the facility and injured two EGA employees, who were later discharged from hospital.

    To restore hot metal production, EGA said it must progressively repair and restart each reduction cell. So far, 631 of the 1,262 reduction cells at Al-Taweelah have been restarted.

    EGA – which is jointly owned by the governments of Abu Dhabi and Dubai – is working on all three potlines at Al-Taweelah in parallel, to accelerate the rate of reduction cell start-ups. Potline 1 was energised on 26 May, followed by Potline 3 on 13 July and Potline 2 on 3 August.

    After being restarted, a reduction cell typically takes a week to stabilise and reach full production. Some hot metal is used to restart subsequent reduction cells, with the balance being delivered to EGA’s Al-Taweelah casthouse, to be cast into finished premium aluminium products.

    Following the emergency shutdown, molten aluminium froze in every reduction cell at Al-Taweelah, leaving solid metal pads weighing up to 45 tonnes, which needed to be removed. Almost 80% of the reduction cells can then be restarted. The remaining reduction cells require repairs, potlining demolition and relining, depending on how long the reduction cells had been operating before the incident.

    Periodically cutting out, repairing and relining reduction cells at the end of their operating life is routine in aluminium smelting. Compared to the normal rolling maintenance programme, EGA has more than tripled its capacity in order to safely repair and restart reduction cells at Al-Taweelah, by optimising workflows, adding equipment, strengthening employee capability and deploying industrial process innovations.

    ALSO READ: EGA to receive first Guinea bauxite post-settlement

    About 1,000 employees are working on the restoration of hot metal production at the Al-Taweelah smelter, EGA said in a statement on 26 August.

    During the restoration, EGA has accelerated the deployment of a technology pilot at Al-Taweelah that would otherwise have required operating reduction cells to be shut down. The pilot E40 upgrades to 13 DX technology reduction cells will be used to prove the performance of the technology before industrialisation across all 808 DX technology cells at Al-Taweelah.  

    If applied to all DX reduction cells, EGA’s E40 technology has the potential to increase hot metal production by 67,000 tonnes a year (t/y).

    EGA’s Al-Taweelah alumina refinery is located next to the Al-Taweelah smelter.

    Alumina is the feedstock for aluminium smelters. It is transferred to storage and then into the smelter by a system of conveyor belts.

    The Al-Taweelah alumina refinery continues to produce alumina at approximately 50% capacity, EGA said. While the alumina refinery is technically ready to ramp-up further, timing will be based on supply chain dynamics and the optimisation of EGA’s alumina sourcing strategy.

    The company announced on 10 July that it had restarted alumina production at its main refinery in Al-Taweelah, adding at the time that it expected to have the technical capability to ramp up to full alumina production by the end of this year.

    The Al-Taweelah alumina refinery began production in 2019 and has a nameplate capacity of 2 million t/y. 

    EGA’s Al-Taweelah smelter consists of 1,262 reduction cells and produced 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025.

    The Al-Taweelah alumina refinery produced 2.4 million t/y of alumina in 2025, and met 46% of EGA’s alumina needs.

    EGA also said in July that its site in the Jebel Ali area of Dubai is continuing aluminium production at full capacity. Average daily inbound deliveries of all major raw materials exceed EGA’s requirements to maintain metal production at Jebel Ali and meet the demands of restoration at Al-Taweelah, with raw material stocks in the UAE increasing.

    Separately, the ramp-up of production at EGA’s new Al-Taweelah recycling plant remains on track, with full production expected by late in the fourth quarter of this year.

    EGA’s recycling plants in the US and Germany, meanwhile, have continued production throughout 2026.

    ALSO READ: EGA to receive first Guinea bauxite post-settlement

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20827987/main1007.jpg
    Indrajit Sen