Contractors take on more work in 2025

30 April 2025

 

Contractors in the region have increased their orderbooks in the past year as the GCC’s key construction markets – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – have continued to award major contracts. 

In Saudi Arabia, the rate of growth has not matched that experienced in 2023-24, which suggests that the market is reaching saturation at time when client bodies are assessing their future spending plans.

In the UAE, the value of projects that contractors are working on has increased significantly, which reflects the start of public works schemes such as the Dubai Metro, as well as the ongoing boom in real estate, which has allowed developers to start work on an array of new building projects.

Top performers

Based on data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the GCC’s most active contractor is Saudi Arabia’s Nesma & Partners, with $13.9bn of work at the execution stage. While it remains the top-ranked contractor, the total value of projects it has at the execution stage has dropped from the $15bn total it had in 2024.

While Nesma & Partners remains the top-ranked contractor in 2025, the total value of projects it has at the execution stage has dropped

In 2024, Nesma was ahead of the second-ranked contractor by $5bn – Italy’s Webuild had $10bn of projects under execution last year. This year, the contractor in second place, Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation, is just $300m behind Nesma with $13.5bn. China State has grown strongly over the past five years, as it has expanded its presence in Saudi Arabia significantly and is now the second-ranked contractor in the kingdom. 

Turkiye’s Limak, which is in third position, is also close behind with $12.9bn of projects under execution. Limak has added the Dubai Metro Blue Line project to its existing work on Kuwait International airport.

There are five other Saudi firms in the top 10, which reflects the kingdom’s status as the region’s largest construction market, and the ambition and scale of its infrastructure spending and gigaprojects programme. 

The other Saudi contractors in the top 10 are Almabani in fourth place with $8.5bn of projects; Shibh Al-Jazira, which also has $8.5bn of projects, in fifth; and El-Seif Engineering Contracting in sixth with $8.3bn of projects under execution. 

Al-Bawani then follows in eighth position with $7.3bn of projects, and Saudi Binladin Group rounds out the top 10 with $6.5bn of projects in 10th place.

The other contractors in the top 10 are Abu Dhabi-headquartered Trojan General Contracting, which is in seventh place with $8bn of projects, and Dubai-based Alec, which has secured ninth place in the ranking with $6.8bn of work at the execution stage, spilt between its home market in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Alec is reportedly considering an initial public offering, which is another sign of how well the construction sector is performing in 2025.

Bahrain

The top two contractors in Bahrain’s ranking in 2025 remain the same. China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) retains the top spot with $700m of work at the execution phase. The Chinese contractor’s work centres on building residential units at East Sitra for the Housing & Urban Planning Ministry. In July 2024, it signed a deal to build 1,269 houses for the third phase of the scheme.

The third phase adds to the project’s second phase, which has 531 units and was handed over in early 2024. The first phase, which has 1,077 units, has also been handed over. The housing ministry signed a BD260m ($689.9m) deal with CMEC for the construction of more than 3,000 housing units at East Sitra in December 2019.

Al-Hamad Building Contracting remains the second-ranked contractor. Its largest project is the longstanding Villamar residential complex at Bahrain Financial Harbour in Manama for Gulf Holding Company.

Grnata joins the top 10 in third position. Its largest ongoing project is the Golden Gate Towers scheme in Manama for the Grnata Group, which involves the construction of two towers, one with 45 and the other with 53 storeys, that together will have a total of 746 apartments.

Grnata edges out Nass Contracting, which was in third place in 2024. Nass drops down the ranking despite two high-profile contract awards. In May 2024, its joint venture with Nassir Hazza & Bros won a BD37.2m contract for the construction works on package three of the Busaiteen Link scheme for the Works Ministry.

Nass also won a $45m contract in June 2024 for the expansion of the campus of the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland-Medical University of Bahrain in the Al-Sayh area of Muharraq Governorate.

Kuwait

For the second year running, Turkiye’s Limak Holding has strengthened its position at the top of Kuwait’s ranking. The contractor has $6.1bn of construction work at the execution stage, according to MEED Projects. This is about $500m more than the $5.6bn it had in 2024.

In October 2024, Limak was one of the contractors that secured work as part of more than KD400m ($1.3bn) of road maintenance works contracts that were awarded by the Public Works Ministry to 18 local and international companies.

The road work adds to Limak’s ongoing works at Kuwait International airport. In 2023, it secured a contract for package three of the expansion of Terminal 2, which covers the construction of aircraft parking aprons, taxiways and service buildings.

China Gezhouba Group Corporation is in second position. In March this year, it won two contracts worth over $557m from Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare for the South Saad Al-Abdullah residential project in Al-Jahra Governorate.

China Gezhouba Group Corporation’s rise to second place shifts Shapoorji Pallonji into third place. The Indian contractor is working on two healthcare projects and one education scheme in a joint venture with the local Al-Sager General Trading & Contracting, which is also working on $1.4bn of projects at the execution stage.

Oman

The local Galfar Engineering & Contracting topped Oman’s 2024 ranking with $900m of work at the execution stage. In 2025, there are seven contractors in Oman that have more than $900m of construction work under execution, which reflects an increased level of projects activity across the sultanate. 

Galfar remains the top-ranked contractor in 2025 with $2.5bn of work at the execution phase. 

Last year, as part of a consortium with Abu Dhabi-based National Projects Construction, National Infrastructure Construction Company and Tristar Engineering & Construction, it won an estimated $1.5bn design-and-build contract for the Hafeet Railway project connecting the sultanate with the UAE. It also won a $119.5m contract from the Transport, Communication & Information Technology Ministry for the dualisation of the road connecting the city of Nizwa and the nearby town of Izki.

The overall uptick in projects activity in Oman has meant that the 10th-ranked contractor in 2025 has $500m of work at the execution stage compared to just $200m for the 10th-ranked contractor in 2024. 

Qatar

UCC Holding leads the Qatar ranking in 2025. The local firm was ranked the fifth most active contractor in 2024 with $1.2bn of projects at the execution stage. That total has increased to $1.3bn this year, and with the Qatar construction market remaining subdued after the Fifa World Cup in 2022, it is enough to take UCC to the top of the ranking. 

The contractor’s main ongoing projects are part of the country’s public-private partnership schools scheme. Earlier this year, it signed an estimated $330m deal covering the design, build and maintenance of 14 schools in several areas of Qatar.

UCC Holding also has two major road schemes under execution for the Public Works Authority (Ashghal). UCC is in a joint venture with Infraroad Trading & Contracting Company for both projects. 

The first contract, valued at $170m, covers the construction of the roads and infrastructure works in Al-Mearad and southwest of Muaither. The other, valued at $150m, covers the construction of roads and infrastructure works in the Al-Kharaitiyat and Izghawa areas of Doha.

UCC replaces Turkiye’s TAV Construction and the local Midmac Contracting Company, which jointly held the top ranking position in 2024 with $1.4bn of projects at the execution phase thanks to the terminal expansion programme at Hamad International airport. 

The expansion, which has added 51,000 square metres of space to the airport, including eight new gates, opened in February this year.

Saudi Arabia

There was an expectation in 2024 that Saudi Arabia’s contractor ranking would be transformed in 2025 as development activity accelerated on projects across the kingdom. 

While activity in the kingdom continues, the pace of awards has levelled off as the government and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) have begun to prioritise projects. This drive to rationalise the projects market can be seen in the contractor ranking for 2025. 

Like last year, Nesma tops the list, with $13.9bn of work at the execution stage. This total is less than the $14.7bn of projects that the local contractor had in 2024. 

China State Construction Engineering Company is in second with $9.3bn of projects under execution. The Beijing-based contractor has risen up the ranking from 10th place last year, when it had $3.9bn of projects under execution.

The largest new contract that the firm has secured in the past year is a $3bn scheme to deliver 2,000 housing units for the National Housing Company at several locations in the kingdom. 

China State is joined in the top 10 in 2025 by another Chinese contractor: China Harbour Engineering Corporation, which is in 10th place with $5.6bn of work. One of its recent wins was in June last year, when it secured an $800m contract in joint venture with Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting for the construction works on the second southern ring road in Riyadh.

China Harbour replaces Greece’s Archirodon, which has dropped out of the Saudi top 10 in 2025. The other contractors in the 2025 top 10 ranking remain from 2024. 

UAE

There is no change at the top of the UAE contractor ranking, as Abu Dhabi-based Trojan General Contracting once again leads in 2025. The firm has $7.2bn of projects under execution this year, compared to $6.2bn in 2024.

There have been significant changes to the companies making up the rest of the ranking, however, and to the value of projects that contractors have under execution. This reflects a shift in the market in 2024, as government-backed infrastructure projects moved into construction. 

In 2024, the second-ranked contractor was Abu Dhabi-based National Marine Dredging Company with $3.1bn of projects under execution – a total that would not even make the top 10 in 2025. This year, it is the fifth-ranked contractor, with $4.7bn-worth of projects.

In 2025, the second-ranked contractor is Turkiye’s Mapa with $6bn of projects – thanks largely to a contract it secured in December 2024 for the Blue Line extension of Dubai Metro. Mapa is joined by China’s CRRC Corporation in third place and Turkiye’s Limak in fourth, which are also working on the Blue Line project. 

Abu Dhabi-headquartered Arabian Construction Company is the sixth-ranked contractor with $4.5bn. The firm, which specialises in high-end building projects, returns to the top 10 amid reports that it is planning to list on the stock market with an initial public offering.

The other contractors in the UAE’s top 10 listing are Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation, India’s Sobha, UK-headquartered Innovo and the local Alec. 

Alec has dropped from fourth position in 2024 to 10th this year, despite increasing the value of projects under execution from $2.6bn to $3.3bn, which reflects how much contractors’ orderbooks have filled up over the past year.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13767362/main.gif
Colin Foreman
Related Articles
  • Dubai moves to next phase of Al-Quoz sewerage project

    13 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality’s AED500m ($136m) sewerage and stormwater network development project in Al-Quoz Creative Zone is on track for full completion by January 2027, a source has told MEED.

    The timeline follows Dubai Municipality’s announcement that it has completed the first phase at a cost of AED250m ($68m).

    Phase one included the construction of sewerage and stormwater drainage networks covering 155 hectares and 123 plots. Dubai Municipality said it laid 15 kilometres of sewerage pipelines with diameters ranging from 160mm to 1,600mm. It also developed 14 kilometres of stormwater drainage lines with pipe diameters of between 200mm and 3,000mm.

    The overall project covers Al-Quoz Industrial Areas 1, 2, 3 and 4, as well as the area between Sheikh Zayed Road and Al-Khail Road. It spans 1,600 hectares and covers more than 1,507 plots.

    It is understood that the second phase covers the remaining sections of the project beyond the 155-hectare area completed under phase one.

    Local firm DeTech Contracting is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor on both phases of the scheme.

    The scheme forms part of Dubai’s wider sewerage system development programme and aligns with the AED30bn ($8.1bn) Tasreef programme, which aims to expand stormwater drainage capacity across the emirate.

    The municipality recently opened a tender for a stormwater drainage project covering the Al-Marmoum, Al-Qudra and Al-Yalayis 2 & 3 areas.

    The project is intended to improve stormwater drainage along major roads and surrounding areas within the project zone.

    The works will include the construction of a major gravity drainage system with pipelines of up to 1,600 millimetres in diameter.

    In February, the municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts for five new projects under phase two of the programme to expand and strengthen Dubai’s stormwater drainage network.

    These include two contracts awarded to DeTech Contracting and one to China State Construction Engineering Corporation for stormwater drainage infrastructure.

    In addition, two consultancy contracts were awarded for the study and design of drainage systems in selected areas across the emirate.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369236/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya signs sports medical centre project deal

    13 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre (KFSHRC) have signed an agreement to establish a sports medical centre within the Qiddiya city project in Riyadh.

    The agreement was signed at KFSHRC’s headquarters in Riyadh by Majid Alfayyadh, CEO of KFSHRC, and Abdullah Al-Dawood, managing director of QIC.

    The facility will provide specialised sports medicine services in line with international standards, the partners said.

    The goal of the agreement is “to create a dedicated centre that supports professional athletes, rising talents and community members, helping to advance sports healthcare in Saudi Arabia”, they said in a statement.

    Under the agreement, KFSHRC will provide technical and operational support, supervise the centre’s operations, and ensure high-quality, integrated services that combine clinical care with research and innovation.

    The Qiddiya Sports Medical Centre will offer services including injury prevention, diagnosis, treatment, rehabilitation and performance improvement.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

    The kingdom’s tourism sector posted record-breaking numbers last year, with over 130 million domestic and international visitors entering the kingdom, representing a 6% increase over 2024.


    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia

    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16369037/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia restores capacity of affected oil and gas assets

    13 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has announced the restoration of full capacity at critical oil and gas infrastructure damaged in attacks by Iran on 9 April.

    The attacks led to the loss of approximately 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude pumping capacity on the East-West oil pipeline, which has been restored to its optimum capacity of 7 million b/d, the ministry said on 12 April.

    The Manifa oil field development in the kingdom’s Eastern Province, which lost 300,000 b/d of production due to the attacks, has also had its output capacity reinstated “within a short period of time”, the ministry said.

    The ministry added that work is still ongoing to restore full production capacity at the Khurais oil field, which also lost 300,000 b/d of capacity in the attacks.

    “This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom’s energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets, and supporting the global economy,” the Ministry of Energy said.

    Along with the East-West pipeline and the Manifa and Khurais oil field developments, the attacks on 9 April also targeted oil refineries, petrochemical complexes and electricity units in Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast.

    These assets include the Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) facility in Jubail, Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu, and the Riyadh refinery, directly affecting exports of refined products to global markets.

    Processing facilities in Juaymah in the Eastern Province were also affected by fires, impacting exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids.

    The ministry’s 12 April statement did not provide updates on the status of those facilities.

    Prior to the 9 April attacks, Saudi authorities reported explosions in Jubail industrial city on 7 April. Saudi air defence systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province that day, with debris landing near energy facilities, primarily in Jubail.

    Jubail is one of the world’s largest petrochemical production hubs, with annual output of about 60 million tonnes, accounting for an estimated 6%-8% of global supply. A large part of majority state-owned Saudi Basic Industries Corporation’s (Sabic) operations is based in Jubail.

    Jubail also hosts major downstream oil, gas and petrochemical assets operated by Aramco, US-based Dow and France’s TotalEnergies, underscoring the industrial zone’s international significance.


    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368648/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia seeks firms for Riyadh mixed-use project

    13 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has invited expressions of interest from firms to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organisation (SASO) headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The notice was issued on 12 April, with a bid submission deadline of 26 April.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) scheme, named the ‘Quality Valley Riyadh’ project, will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities.

    The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period.

    The project site spans about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are the project advisers.

    In October last year, NCP highlighted the scale and diversity of opportunities in the kingdom’s PPP pipeline.

    “At the moment, we have around 200 projects in the pipeline with a total value of roughly $190bn,” Salman Badr, executive vice president – infrastructure advisory, NCP, said during a MEED webinar.

    The projects are spread across 17 sectors. “We have a very sizeable programme, and it reflects the breadth of the kingdom’s transformation agenda,” he said.

    NCP was established in 2017. It serves as the central authority and catalyst for designing and implementing privatisation and PPP projects across the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16368638/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

    13 April 2026

     

    The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.

    By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.

    The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.

    If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.

    As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.

    Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict

    Affordability issues

    LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.

    The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.

    The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned

    In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.

    “Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.

    “Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”

    Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.

    Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

    Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

    UAE setbacks

    The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.

    The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.

    In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oman exports

    With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.

    However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.

    Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.

    Replacing LNG

    Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.

    Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.

    Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.

    “Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.

    “There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.

    “Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”

    On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.

    The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.

    In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

    US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.

    Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).

    A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.

    The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.

    If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.

    Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
    Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

    Second thoughts

    In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.

    In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.

    “If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.

    Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.

    “It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.

    It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.

    The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).

    Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.

    The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.

    Nuclear and coal

    In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.

    The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.

    Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”

    Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.

    In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.

    “With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.

    Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

    Coleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.

    “It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.

    “This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.

    “Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”

    Eroded outlook

    The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.

    Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.

    Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.

    In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.

    Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.

    This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.

    It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.

    While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.

    However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.

    If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16331010/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp