Bright outlook for carbon capture investment
20 October 2023

Commenting publicly this week, officials from some of the world’s biggest publicly traded international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) have made it clear that one of their preferred sustainable technologies is carbon capture.
Ahead of the Cop28 climate change conference due to start in the UAE at the end of November, senior figures from several high-profile oil companies made the promotion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology a key part of their messaging.
The appeal of carbon capture technologies to oil and gas companies, which see this technology as a way to extend the life of their existing facilities, is likely to translate directly into investments in the technology.
Great solution
Speaking at an oil and gas conference in London, Ahmad al-Khowaiter, executive vice-president of technology and innovation at Saudi Aramco, said he thought carbon capture was a “great solution” for the oil and gas industry as it could be applied to the existing industry to ensure that facilities do not have to be shut down for environmental reasons.
He said the technology could potentially mean the “tremendous investment” already made in existing facilities would not have to go to waste.
Al-Khowaiter spoke about carbon capture a day after the chief executive of Aramco, Amin Nasser, talked about CCS and urged world leaders to shift their focus away from goals that limit oil production in favour of goals that focus purely on limiting emissions.
“The idea is we need to reduce emissions [and] build more carbon capture and storage,” he said, calling for leaders to give more incentives to the conventional energy sector to implement CCS technologies.
He added: “The focus should be on reducing emissions. Incentives should not only be for renewables; they should be for supporting conventional energy and supporting carbon capture.
“We cannot meet our net-zero 2050 [target] without carbon capture and storage, so some incentives should go to carbon capture and storage.”
Nasser also said: “We need to work in parallel … not to call for shutting down our conventional energy today, increasing the prices and costs for everybody around the world.”
CCUS investment
Similarly, Nawaf al-Sabah, deputy chairman and chief executive of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), commented on the significant planned investments in carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).
KPC aims to cut its Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions to zero by 2050 and plans to invest $110bn in decarbonisation as part of its long-term plan for the oil sector.
Referring to the planned cuts to Scope 1 and 2 emissions, Al-Sabah said: “A big portion of that will be through CCUS. I think that is one of the technologies that we all, as humanity, need to invest in because it removes carbon that would otherwise dissipate into the atmosphere.”
In the case of KPC, it plans to take carbon from its refineries and inject it into its oil and gas reservoirs to stimulate production.
Critical technology
The enthusiasm for carbon capture from the NOCs was equalled by senior executives from publicly traded IOCs, who also said they were looking to invest heavily in the technology.
Richard Jackson, president of US onshore resources and carbon management at Occidental, said CCS was “central” to his company’s strategy.
Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, described carbon capture technology as “critical for the future of the decarbonisation journey”.
Problematic issues
Despite the enthusiasm from oil companies, it remains to be seen whether carbon capture technologies are the best way to invest capital to achieve effective emissions reductions.
This is mainly due to challenges with effectively scaling the technology, as well as issues relating to the technology’s business model.
One of the problematic aspects of a carbon capture business model has been clearly illustrated by Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah blue hydrogen plant project.
Engineering is nearly completed for this project, which is estimated to be worth around $1bn and will use carbon capture technology to remove carbon emissions from a facility that will produce hydrogen by processing natural gas.
Despite the project nearly being ready for the final investment decision, Aramco has warned that it is struggling to find offtake agreements for the product produced by the plant due to high pricing.
Aramco has asked governments in South Korea and Japan to step in to subsidise the use of blue hydrogen to make the project viable, and says it will not approve the project for execution until offtake agreements have been signed.
Economically challenged
This comes as some critics say that investments in carbon capture compare poorly to other decarbonisation solutions that use technologies proven to work at scale with functioning business models.
In a report published earlier this year, the consultancy McKinsey said: “Many, if not most, CCUS projects are economically challenged today, with high costs of capture for dilute point sources and a limited number of revenue streams available.”
While it remains unclear whether or not carbon capture is the most effective way of spending money to reach a net-zero world, oil companies have made it clear that it is one of their preferred technologies.
The fact that it could potentially allow oil companies to continue broadly using their conventional business models and existing facilities should mean that this technology receives significant funding from the oil and gas sector over the coming years.
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US–Iran deal sets Hormuz road map17 June 2026
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
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The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
Shipping associations are no less cautious, with the Baltic and International Maritime Council calling for verified mine-free routes before volume traffic resumes.
Insurance underwriters are likewise unlikely to relent on prices until clearance is confirmed.
Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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