meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Brics tilts balance of regional interests

27 September 2023

 

With the extension of invitations to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join the Brics group of major emerging economies – and the acceptance by the UAE – Middle East interests are represented within the bloc for the first time and could end up comprising a third of its total membership.

This potential shift in the geopolitical reorientation of Brics reflects two interests for the group. The first of these is the strategic nature of the Middle East, both in terms of energy and logistics. The second is the key role that Saudi Arabia and the UAE could play in challenging the dollar.

None of this is necessarily a hard sell. As it stands, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reserved, business-like and occasionally testy relations with the US and the EU, while Iran is alienated by sanctions. All four Middle East countries meanwhile have strong and expanding trade relations with China and India.

From the perspective of China, India and Russia, the Middle Eastern invitees to Brics are ripe targets for being drawn further away from the sphere of Western influence. Brics, as a collective of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is already a counter of sorts to the G7 and aims to level the global playing field. 

The addition of six new members stands to not only increase the bloc’s leverage, but, in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, aims to add two countries that are also ambitious about raising their stature on the global stage.

Strategic partnership

In terms of economics, the proposed expansion of the Brics membership would increase the size of the bloc by about a tenth, adding markets responsible for $2.6tn in GDP and populated by 409 million people, as of 2021, according to the World Bank. This builds on an existing GDP of $27.3tn – $17.7tn of it from China alone – and a population of 3.6 billion people.

Of the invited countries, Saudi Arabia represents the largest single potential net gain for the group, with its economy valued at about twice that of existing member South Africa.

Trade ties are already extensive within the group. China and India are top trade partners for Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, so the prospective new Brics membership is building upon a framework of already highly interconnected and integrated economic relationships.

China is the single-most important trading partner of Saudi Arabia, accounting for 17 per cent of the kingdom’s foreign trade, while India accounts for about 9 per cent. The UAE and Egypt are also top trading partners for the kingdom. 

Overall, this means that the new prospective line-up of the Brics bloc could potentially represent a sizeable proportion of Saudi Arabia’s total trade moving forward.

China, India and Saudi Arabia are similarly two of the UAE’s top trade partners, while China, India and the UAE are all among Iran’s top trade partners. China and Saudi Arabia are likewise major trade partners for Egypt.

Though the expansion may represent a fractional upscaling in terms of market volume and value, the broadening of the bloc to strategic players in the Middle East could have an outsized potential to strengthen its member states’ global influence and collective bargaining.

Not least is the addition of three key members of oil producers’ group Opec – Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – and observer state Egypt, up from the single Opec+ party Russia. 

This stands to bring key energy producers into yet closer economic partnership with China and India, both major energy consumers. It could also be key to progressing the Brics ambition of loosening the hold of the dollar by transitioning major bilateral energy transactions conducted in dollars into other currencies.

Next steps

The UAE’s quick acceptance of the Brics invitation shows its enthusiasm for strategic advancement and the potential leverage that a more empowered bloc could represent. The country will nevertheless, like India, need to carefully balance its role in the group with its existing US partnership – perhaps more so than any of the other invitees.

The UAE’s agreements with China and India to trade in local currencies is already a major win for the bloc in its efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar. The more ambitious proposal for a common Brics currency to counter dollar fluctuations remains complex and uncertain.

The likes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE do, however, have the financial clout and expertise to potentially place the Brics-established New Development Bank on firmer economic footing, improve its project management and help establish it as a more credible counterpart to the likes of the Washington-based IMF and the World Bank.

Much will hinge on which of the remaining invitees ultimately choose to join the bloc. 

Iran and Egypt are expected to swiftly follow the UAE in accepting. Saudi Arabia is still carefully weighing the invitation, cautious of the chilling effect that throwing in its lot too clearly with China could have on its US relationship. 

For both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to join Brics would be a major coup for the bloc and a momentous shift in global politics.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11160270/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Conflict has limited impact on GCC projects

    4 March 2026

     

    The conflict in the Gulf has so far had a limited impact on projects in the GCC, with most sites operating normally since hostilities began on 28 February. In total, there are 6,738 projects under execution across the GCC, with a combined value of $951bn, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Contracting companies in the region say that the majority of their projects have not been affected by the conflict, and work has continued onsite without disruption. However, a few sites have temporarily halted operations, either at the request of the authorities or because they were considered at risk due to their strategic locations.

    “Work has continued on our projects in Dubai. We have only one site where we were asked to stop work,” says a contractor overseeing projects across Dubai.

    Another contractor operating across the UAE has also continued work but halted operations at one site following a nearby security incident. “We have one site that was close to a facility that was struck by debris, so we stopped work,” the contractor says.

    Work has also continued on projects outside of the UAE. In Saudi Arabia and Qatar, contractors continue to work on projects, including strategically sensitive oil and gas projects. “We have continued work on most of our projects. There are a few sites where we have been asked to stop work, but this is the minority, and at most sites we are still working,” says an international contractor.

    Supply chain concerns

    While operations largely continue as normal, there are concerns that projects could be impacted later due to supply chain disruption. Ports in the region have been targets, and with international shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz effectively stopping, there is an expectation that international shipments will be delayed. A related concern is the sharp spike in oil prices that will be inflationary.

    How the disruption is handled will depend on the terms of specific contracts and on how companies choose to navigate the issue. The general consensus among contractors and lawyers is that it is not a force majeure event. Instead, it is general disruption that should be noted and documented, should there be cost or time implications later in the project.

    One Dubai-based contractor said the strategy for now is to support clients as best as possible amid this uncertainty, while noting that there may be cost implications later.

    The region has been considered a safe place for tourism, and also for the rich to live in a tax-free haven. The attacks on Dubai may change that perception, and that will impact the market in the future
    International contractor

    Future prospects

    There are also concerns about the market’s future. There have been record levels of contract awards in recent years, and the worry is that the pace of contract awards may slow as uncertainty grips the market.

    At the same time, some contract awards have been expedited. One Dubai-based contractor has signed two contracts since the conflict started. “We have signed deals that had been lingering for a while. I think the logic is that the client wants to lock in resources before prices or anything else changes,” says the contractor.

    Longer term, it is expected that priorities for construction could shift. Contractors say that defence will become more of a priority for governments in the future, and so will strategic infrastructure projects such as power and water.

    There might also be increased interest in making infrastructure more secure, which will add an additional layer of complexity for construction companies. “Facilities like data centres may be located underground in the future to protect them from attacks,” says a UAE-based contractor.

    The outlook for other sectors is more challenged, particularly real estate and tourism.

    “The region has been considered a safe place for tourism, and also for the rich to live in a tax-free haven,” says the international contractor. “The attacks on Dubai may change that perception, and that will impact the market in the future. Tourism is a key component of national visions across the GCC, so I think there will have to be a rethink of economic strategies for the future.”

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15855051/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Arabia’s private sector steps up

    4 March 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the March issue of MEED Business Review

    At the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh in 2019, a head of a regional family business voiced a guarded concern. The worry was that the scale and speed of the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF’s) projects were crowding out the private sector, leaving little space for traditional players to compete.

    Fast forward more than six years and much has changed. In 2026, the era of the PIF acting as the principal driver for development is giving way to a new phase where the private sector is taking a more active role.

    At February’s Private Sector Forum (PSF), officials acknowledged that the kingdom’s priorities have evolved since 2016. This has led to reprioritisation, including the indefinite postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games in Trojena and the scaling back of projects such as The Line – moves framed as strategic adjustments amid global economic uncertainty.

    With the 2034 Fifa World Cup and Expo 2030 on the horizon, alongside the rapid ascent of artificial intelligence, Riyadh is right to realign its capital. It is far more reassuring to see a government adapt its strategy to a changing global economy than to blindly pursue an outdated plan. The PIF, now managing $913bn in assets, is seeking ‘escape velocity’, allowing sectors such as tourism and real estate to stand independently.

    The private sector is beginning to respond. Recent agreements signed at the PSF – ranging from King Salman International airport’s mixed-use developments to Roshn’s logistics partnership with Agility – show that local and regional firms are rising to the challenge.

    There is still work to be done. Some sectors are more ready for investment than others, and scaling back projects has dented the confidence of some investors.

    But overall, the tide is turning. The crowding out fears of 2019 have been replaced by a drive to get the private sector more involved, and while it will take time for momentum to fully develop, the process of passing the baton has already begun.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15842555/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Etihad Rail conducts passenger rail trial run in Abu Dhabi

    4 March 2026

    Etihad Rail, the UAE’s national rail operator, has carried out a passenger train trial on the line linking Al-Ghuwaifat station at the Saudi border with Al-Faya station in Abu Dhabi.

    The test was organised in coordination with the Emergencies, Crises and Disasters Management Centre Abu Dhabi (ADCMC).

    In a statement, ADCMC said the exercise is intended to help maintain essential services and offer safe, dependable transport options as conditions change.

    It also highlighted the route’s strategic value in supporting movement for citizens and residents, while giving authorities the ability to activate alternate corridors in line with approved emergency response plans.

    ADCMC added that running this route with Etihad Rail fits within a wider set of coordinated measures designed to reinforce logistical security, aligned with business continuity planning and multi-scenario risk management frameworks.

    The UAE’s first national passenger rail network is due to begin operations soon, using the existing 900-kilometre (km) railway stretching from Al-Ghuwaifat to Fujairah.

    The system will include 11 stations. Early services are expected to connect Mohammed Bin Zayed City (Abu Dhabi), Jumeirah Golf Estates (Dubai), University City (Sharjah) and Al-Hilal (Fujairah).

    Other stops include Al-Sila’, Al-Dhannah, Al-Mirfa, Madinat Zayed, Mezaira’a and Al-Faya in Abu Dhabi, along with Al-Dhaid in Sharjah.

    The passenger fleet is planned to include 13 trains, each with a capacity for up to 400 passengers.

    Target travel times include 57 minutes between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 105 minutes from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, and 70 minutes from Abu Dhabi to Ruwais.

    On the operations side, Etihad Rail and France’s Keolis agreed in October 2025 to form a joint venture to oversee passenger services.

    In June 2022, Etihad Rail awarded Spain’s CAF Group a AED1.2bn ($327m) contract covering the design, manufacture, supply and maintenance of the passenger trains.

    Freight services are already running, with operations spanning 11 terminals: Ruwais Inland Terminal, Ruwais Port, ICAD, Khalifa Port, Dubai Industrial City, Jebel Ali Port, Al-Ghail Dry Port, Fujairah Port, Ghuwaifat Terminal, Shah Terminal and Habshan Terminal.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15854553/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq’s Atrush and Sarsang oil fields stop production due to Iran conflict

    4 March 2026

    Production has stopped at the Atrush and Sarsang blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and output has been slashed at key fields in the south of the country.

    Canada-based ShaMaran Petroleum Corporation, which holds stakes in Atrush and Sarsang, said that production had stopped at both fields as a precautionary measure due to “the deterioration in the regional security environment” related to the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran.

    ShaMaran holds a 50% working interest in the Atrush Block and an 18% working interest in the Sarsang Block.

    Erbil-headquartered HKN Energy is also a partner in both fields.

    Prior to the latest shutdown, in the company’s most recent quarterly report, it said that Atrush had produced an average of 29,400 barrels a day (b/d) over the three-month period, and Sarsang produced 18,200 b/d.

    Due to the field closures in Iraqi Kurdistan, it has been reported that exports to the Turkish port of Ceyhan via the Iraq-Turkiye pipeline have fallen to zero while all of the crude produced in the region is used domestically.

    Iraq’s Rumaila field, in the south of the country, is also being severely impacted by the ongoing conflict.

    On 3 March, the decision was taken to completely stop production at the South Rumaila field, after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.

    The Rumaila oil field, which is made up of North Rumaila and South Rumaila, is the second-biggest oil field in the world.

    The oil field normally has the capacity to produce around 1.2 million b/d, but has cut production by at least 700,000 b/d due to overloaded storage.

    Also in the south of the country, there have been cuts to production at the West Qurna-2 and Maysan fields.

    Several other Iraqi oil and gas fields have shut down recently amid the US and Israel’s ongoing war with Iran.

    The Shaikan field in northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has stopped production due to security concerns.

    The field is operated by London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which has said in a statement that it had “temporarily shut-in production operations and has taken measures to protect staff in light of the developing regional security environment”.

    Shaikan is one of Iraqi Kurdistan’s largest producing fields and produced more than 41,500 barrels a day in 2025.

    The production stoppage at Shaikan came days after gas production was halted at Iraqi Kurdistan’s Khor Mor field on 28 February.

    UAE-based Dana Gas stopped supplying power plants from the field due to the “abnormal situation and war taking place in the area”, according to a joint statement from the Kurdistan region’s natural resources and electricity ministries.

    The gas halt is expected to cut electricity generation capacity by 2,500-3,000MW, with authorities seeking alternative supply to limit the shortfall, the ministries said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15853790/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq under pressure as oil exports slashed

    4 March 2026

    Analysis
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Iraq’s oil and gas sector is facing mounting challenges as production levels drop sharply amid the US and Israel’s ongoing war with Iran.

    In the south of the country, oil exports have been paralysed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and, in the country’s northern region of Iraqi Kurdistan, exports via the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP) have fallen to zero.

    Industry insiders are expecting the impact to be felt for some time to come.

    On 2 March, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through will be attacked.

    Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, said: “The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze.”

    Stakeholders in Iraq’s oil and gas sector believe that the closure of the Strait by Iran is likely to have a long-term impact on companies operating in the south of the country.

    One source said: “The outlook for the companies operating in the south is very bad right now.

    “Potentially, a lot of companies in the south are going to be very anxious about the Strait of Hormuz for a very long time.

    “There are hardly any other export routes they can use, and even if Iran’s military capabilities are substantially eroded, it’s going to be very hard to defend ships that are passing through there.”

    On 3 March, the decision was taken to completely stop production at the South Rumaila field, after Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.

    The Rumaila oil field, which is made up of North Rumaila and South Rumaila, is the second-biggest oil field in the world.

    The oil field normally has the capacity to produce 1.2 million barrels a day (b/d), but has cut production by at least 700,000 b/d due to overloaded storage.

    Also in the south of the country, there have been cuts to production at the West Qurna 2 and Maysan fields.

    Pipeline problem

    The main export route for oil producers in Iraqi Kurdistan is the ITP.

    This key pipeline, which reopened on 27 September last year, was closed again after production from the region dropped dramatically due to multiple oil fields closing as a safety precaution.

    The fields that have temporarily stopped production include the Atrush and Sarsang fields.

    Canada-based ShaMaran Petroleum Corporation, which holds stakes in both fields, said that the closures were due to “the deterioration in the regional security environment”.

    On top of this, the Iraqi Kurdistan’s Shaikan field, which London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum operates, has stopped production due to security concerns.

    Shaikan is one of Iraqi Kurdistan’s largest producing fields and produced more than 41,500 b/d in 2025.

    “When it comes to the outlook for future oil exports, the calculation is completely different for these companies in Iraqi Kurdistan compared to the companies in the south of the country,” said one source.

    “It’s possible that the pipeline will be easier to open in the near future than the Strait of Hormuz.

    “It’s not so close to Iran and, so far, no damage has been sustained by the pipeline or the oil fields.

    “With prices so high right now, everyone involved in exporting oil via the pipeline is highly motivated to see it restarted.”

    The disruption to global oil and gas supplies caused by the Iran conflict has driven global oil prices up by around 15%, with Brent crude oil briefly rising above $85 a barrel on 3 March, the highest it has been since July 2024.

    One source said: “These high oil prices are going to be a nightmare for consumers – but if you are an oil company, it’s an opportunity to make some serious money.

    “However, you can only make that money if you can ship your oil – and a lot of oil companies in Iraq are going to struggle to do just that.”

    Another source said: “There’s nothing technically wrong with the Kurdistan fields or the pipeline at the moment, and a lot of people believe they could be brought back online relatively quickly.

    “The pipeline has only been shut down because of the oil field closures. All of the oil that is currently being produced in Iraqi Kurdistan is being used domestically.”

    Key staff at Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil companies remain in the country, and the companies are planning quick restarts to cash in on current high prices, according to sources.

    One said: “While many of these companies have plans in place for evacuations by land to Turkiye if the situation worsens, right now it seems more likely that things will stabilise and the companies will bring their fields back online soon.

    “Workers have been told to stay inside – but many are used to the threat of drone and rocket attacks, and they are still going to the pub and living their lives as normal.”

    Uncertain future

    While many stakeholders in Iraqi Kurdistan believe the outlook for oil companies in the region is better than in the south of the country, significant challenges remain, and the situation could change dramatically due to the chaotic nature of the ongoing conflict.

    One factor that is likely to remain challenging in Iraqi Kurdistan is logistics for key personnel.

    One source said: “Airport closures and flight cancellations are likely to dog this region for some time to come, so getting people in and out is expected to remain difficult.”

    Another concern is potential attacks on oil fields by militant groups in the region that are loyal to Iran.

    “We’ve seen that Iran wants to lash out and do damage to oil assets in nearby countries – so an attack on key fields in Iraqi Kurdistan would not be a surprise,” the source added.

    An attack on the ITP pipeline itself could dramatically change the outlook for Iraqi Kurdistan.

    Drone attacks or rockets could potentially put the pipeline out of action for months, dealing a serious blow to the outlook for the region’s oil companies.

    While the future for the oil sector in both federal Iraq and the Kurdistan region remains highly uncertain, it is clear to everyone involved that the disruptions to the country’s oil and gas sector are causing severe economic damage to the oil-reliant country.

    On 3 March, Baghdad-based research organisation Eco Iraq Observatory estimated that Iraq was losing $128m a day after the shutdown of the Rumaila and Kurdistan fields.

    It said a one-week shutdown could cost the Iraqi treasury nearly $900m, and a month could result in losses exceeding $3.8bn.

    With Iraq relying on oil for more than 90% of government revenues, it is likely that the country will rapidly enter an economic crisis if it does not find a way to bring exports back online over the coming days.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15853788/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp