Biden leaves a mixed legacy
23 October 2024
Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED
There’s no forecasting the winner of this year’s US presidential poll, but there is one certainty.
Joe Biden will exit the White House next January and be out of front-line politics for the first time in more than five decades.
History is rarely kind to presidents after they leave office. It is likely that, in due course, Biden will be remembered most for being the oldest person elected president. And he joins the small group of US presidents forced out of office, as he effectively was.
Biden’s fans will point to significant domestic achievements, including the decrease in the number of Americans without health insurance for the first time to under 10% of the population. Job growth in Biden’s first three years outperformed any previous president’s and unemployment in 2021-23 was below 4% for the first time since the 1960s. Wage growth has outstripped inflation, which has dropped sharply since hitting almost 10% in the summer of 2022. The stock market has boomed and violent crime is down.
History is rarely kind to presidents after they leave office
Biden’s big domestic negative is immigration. The number of encounters at America’s border with Mexico has soared and hit a record of 2.2 million in 2023.
Biden’s apologists blame the Republican majority in the House of Representatives for derailing reform legislation that was making its way through the Senate. But worries about immigration damaged his opinion poll ratings.
In a normal election, nevertheless, a presidential incumbent with this kind of record should have been a shoo-in. It is the main reason Biden resisted pressure to step down even after his cognitive decline was impossible to conceal. He believed he was doing a good job and should have been allowed to stay on.
Foreign policy
Outside the US, Biden’s reputation will mainly be shaped by his foreign policy.
The record there is baleful. The chaos of the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was followed by a refusal to negotiate with Russia about Ukraine in 2022 and the lamentable failure to constrain Israel since October 2023.
His Secretary of State Antony Blinken is widely viewed as the worst in US history.
Reliable friends including Jordan and most of the Gulf Arab states have been alienated, possibly permanently.
Biden’s legacy is objectively mixed. But that’s no longer his problem.
The US foreign policy mess will divert much of the initial energy of America’s next president. But the ultimate sadness of Biden’s lifetime of public service is that, whoever wins in November, they will almost certainly blame him for it.
Connect with Edmund O’Sullivan on X
More from Edmund O’Sullivan:
> Desperate days drag on
> The beginning of the end
> The death of political risk
> Italy at centre of new reduced Europe
> US foreign policy approach remains adrift
> Rainmaking in the world economy
> New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy
> Syria’s long march in from the cold
> Lebanon’s pain captured in a call from Beirut
> Troubled end to 2023 bodes ill for stability
Exclusive from Meed
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Adnoc Gas and Jera sign $450m LNG deal
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Acwa Power and Snam plan hydrogen cooperation
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Sace to provide $100m credit to Acwa Power
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The LNG will be supplied from Adnoc Gas’ Das Island liquefaction facility, which has a production capacity of approximately 6 million tonnes a year.
In a statement, Adnoc Gas said the agreement reaffirms the company's position as a "reliable global supplier of clean energy" while supporting Japan's energy requirements.
Fatema Al-Nuaimi, CEO of Adnoc Gas, said the agreement builds on the robust UAE-Japan energy relationship and decades of collaboration between Adnoc Gas and Jera.
"We will continue to support Japan’s energy needs and reinforce our position as a reliable partner in the global LNG market," she added.
Kazunori Kasai, chief optimisation officer of Jera Company and chairman of Jera Global Markets, noted that the new supply agreement with Adnoc Gas reflects the "active measures we take to ensure that our global portfolio remains diverse, flexible and competitive".
In October 2023, Adnoc Gas also won an order for LNG supply from Jera Global Markets.
The value of the multi-year LNG supply contract was between $500m and $700m, Adnoc Group said at the time. The company did not specify the duration of the agreement or the volume of LNG that Adnoc Gas will supply each year.
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Lunate to acquire Snam stake in Abu Dhabi pipeline
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Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Lunate is to acquire a minority stake in Adnoc Gas Pipelines that is indirectly held by Italian gas infrastructure operator Snam.
The deal comes less than one year after Lunate acquired a 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines from US asset management firms BlackRock and KKR.
The transaction with Snam, which is subject to the signing of the sale and purchase agreement, as well as to the potential exercise of the relevant shareholders’ rights, will be made through Lunate’s Long-Term Capital Fund 1, Snam said in a statement on 28 January.
Adnoc Gas Pipelines, a subsidiary of state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has lease rights to 38 pipelines covering a total of 982 kilometres across the UAE.
The gas pipeline network serves as a strategic link connecting Adnoc's upstream assets to local UAE offtakers.
"It represents a high-quality and essential asset that generates stable and predictable cash flows in a critical sector and is a major contributor to the UAE’s energy infrastructure strategy," the statement said.
Snam acquired its stake in Adnoc Gas Pipelines in 2020, along with other consortium partners, including GIP, GIC, Brookfield Asset Management, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board and NH Investment & Securities, through Galaxy Pipeline Assets HoldCo.
Lunate acquired its 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines from BlackRock and KKR in April 2024.
The acquisition by Lunate’s Long Term Capital Fund was executed through the purchase of a 100% stake in a special purpose vehicle jointly held by BlackRock and KKR managed funds, Lunate said at the time.
The parties did not disclose the financial terms of the deal. BlackRock and KKR spent $4bn on the acquisition of the 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines in 2019.
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Acwa Power and Snam plan hydrogen cooperation
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Riyadh-based utility developer and investor Acwa Power has signed a memorandum of understanding with Italy's Snam to explore collaboration and joint investments to establish a green hydrogen supply chain to Europe.
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Sace to provide $100m credit to Acwa Power
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The deal will facilitate the export of Italian companies and is in line with Sace's mandate, a joint statement said on 26 January.
"Sace will provide a $100m line of credit to Acwa Power in exchange for a commitment to create business matching opportunities with Italian companies in their respective areas of interest," the statement said.
Sace and Acwa Power have also documented a commitment to explore new opportunities and evaluate up to $500m in support, to facilitate exports from Italy and promote the internationalisation of Italian companies, including small and medium-sized enterprises.
The agreements were signed by the CEO of Acwa Power, Marco Arcelli, and by the CEO of Sace, Alessandra Ricci, on the occasion of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni's visit to Saudi Arabia.
The agreement with Sace is one of several that Acwa Power signed with Italian companies on the sidelines of the Saudi-Italian High-Level Roundtable Meeting in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia.
It signed agreements with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), the Italian financial institution for development cooperation; De Nora, a multinational company specialising in water treatment technologies; and Ansaldo Energia, a power generation equipment manufacturer.
The latter agreement was signed by Nomac Holding, a fully-owned subsidiary of Acwa Power.
Acwa Power's Arcelli said: "The opportunities for cooperation between Saudi and Italian companies are immense in the sphere of supply, localisation, financing and energy.
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Photo credit: Acwa Power
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Austria-headquartered ILF Consulting Engineers has won the contract, industry sources tell MEED.
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