meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Belt and Road woes could benefit the Gulf

31 March 2023

The Gulf region could benefit from the growing signs of strain affecting China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Beijing has substantially increased its lending for bailouts to developing countries following a series of debt write-offs, controversies and corruption allegations. As the financial burden increases, Chinese companies and financial institutions could respond by shifting their focus to less risky markets such as the Gulf. 

A study published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that between 2019 and the end of 2021, China extended $104bn in rescue loans to developing nations, almost equal to its bailout lending over the previous two decades. From 2000 until the end of 2021, China carried out 128 bailout operations in 22 countries with a total value of $240bn.

Interest rates

Compared to loans from agencies such as the IMF with interest rates of about 2 per cent, the Chinese emergency loans come with interest rates in the region of 5 per cent, making them unaffordable for some countries. This has led to criticism of China’s aid strategy – claims that Beijing has publicly rejected.

The BRI is a global infrastructure initiative that aims to build a network of trade and infrastructure projects connecting China with more than 100 countries across Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

The BRI has been a way for China to expand its global economic and political influence by financing and constructing infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, ports and power plants, among others, in participating countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping formally announced the initiative during a speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan in September 2013. During the speech, Xi Jinping proposed the creation of a Silk Road Economic Belt and a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The initiative promoted regional and global economic development, strengthened cooperation and connectivity among participating countries, and enhanced cultural exchange and mutual understanding.

As well as burdening countries with unaffordable debts, another criticism of the BRI is that it needs to be clearly defined and centrally managed in Beijing. After being announced in a speech, Chinese companies have been tacitly encouraged to support development projects overseas. Without oversight, these projects and associated loans have sometimes failed to succeed commercially.

Regional connection

While the BRI has yet to be clearly defined, the Middle East is part of it. The clearest demonstration came in December last year when Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and President Xi Jinping signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Riyadh, and a series of high-level commitments, including one to harmonise the goals of Saudi’s Vision 2030 with China’s BRI.

If China chooses to become more risk-averse with its BRI investments, Saudi Arabia and several other key Middle Eastern markets could be prime areas of focus. The other countries are the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Egypt. The Gulf countries have large hydrocarbon reserves, which are a strategic priority for China. The revenues they generate also give countries the cash flow to service any loans extended by Beijing.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, China was the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the US in 2021. It consumed 14.76 million barrels a day, which equates to 15 per cent of the global total.

Egypt is considered strategically important because of the Suez Canal. The waterway enables China to import raw materials from the Middle East and Africa and export finished goods to Europe and other markets. Any disruption to the flow of goods through the canal, such as the blockage caused by the Ever Given container ship in March 2021, can have significant economic consequences for China.

Busy working

China is already backing significant levels of project activity in these countries. Major contract awards secured by Chinese construction companies in Saudi Arabia during 2022 include contracts to build photovoltaic solar power plants, tunnels, roads, bridges and a cement plant.

This year a Chinese-led consortium is well placed to win work on the $7bn Saudi Landbridge project. It was reported in January that negotiations are ongoing for the final cost and financing of the scheme, which involves building a railway network across the kingdom from the Red Sea coast to the Gulf.

China National Nuclear Corporation is also one of the companies bidding for the contract to build the kingdom’s first nuclear power plant.

Chinese companies are involved in various major projects in the UAE, including Etihad Rail, the Hassyan coal-fired power plant and the Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park. China’s oil and gas infrastructure investments include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which holds a 4 per cent stake in Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon blocks. In addition, Chinese companies are investing in other sectors, such as the development and operation of Khalifa Port’s second container terminal and the China-UAE Capacity Demonstration Park.

In Egypt, China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) is working on the New Administrative Capital project east of Cairo. China is also involved in constructing a new industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, which aims to attract foreign investment and boost economic growth. For example, at the end of March, it was reported that Chinese company Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes plans to invest $2bn in iron and steel plants in the economic zone.

In Iraq, Chinese companies are heavily involved in the oil and gas sector. Chinese contractors dramatically ramped up their activities in Iraq’s energy sector, winning 87 per cent of all oil, gas and power project contracts awarded in the country during 2022.

There is plenty of room for Chinese involvement to grow in the future. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there are $1.3tn of projects in the pre-execution stages across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Egypt.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10723660/main3424.gif
Colin Foreman

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai receives $22bn tunnels investor prequalifications

    30 October 2024

    Potential investors have submitted their statements of qualifications (SOQs) for a contract to develop and operate various packages of the $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels (DSST) project.

    MEED understands the project client, the Dubai Municipality, received SOQs from over a dozen companies, including several that have been prequalified as engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors for the project's first four packages.

    According to industry sources, the companies that are keen to prequalify as investors or sponsors of the planned public-private partnership (PPP) project include:

    • Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
    • Besix (Belgium)
    • China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
    • China Railway Engineering Group (CREG)
    • China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China)
    • Itochu (Japan)
    • Plenary (Australia)
    • Samsung C&T (South Korea)
    • Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
    • WeBuild (Italy)

    The project client and its consultants held a consortium match-making event for prospective contractors and sponsors or investors in Dubai on 7 October.

    MEED previously reported that the bidders for the six public-private partnership (PPP) packages will be prequalified consortiums comprised of sponsors or investors; engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors; and operations and maintenance contractors.

    The overall project will require a capital expenditure of about AED30bn ($8bn), while the whole-life cost over the full concession terms of the entire project is estimated to reach AED80bn.

    The investor prequalification process for the scheme comes after the client prequalified EPC contractors that can partner with the developers or investors to bid for the contracts.

    MEED understands that packages J1 and W will be tendered together as separate contracts first, followed by J2 and J3, with the requests for proposals to be issued sequentially, staggered about six to 12 months apart.

    Dubai Municipality is expected to invite prequalified companies to submit bids for the contracts to develop the first two packages of the DSST project in the fourth quarter of 2024.

    DSST packages

    Under the current plan, the $22bn DSST project is broken down into six packages, which will be tendered as PPP packages with concession periods lasting between 25 and 35 years.

    The first package, J1, comprises Jebel Ali tunnels (North) and terminal pump stations (TPS). The tunnels will extend approximately 42 kilometres (km), and the links will extend 10km. 

    The second package, J2, covers the southern section of the Jebel Ali tunnels, which will extend 16km and have a link stretching 46km.

    W for Warsan, the third package, comprises 16km of tunnels, TPS and 46km of links.

    J3, the fourth package, comprises 129km of links.

    J1, J2, W and J3 will comprise the deep sewerage tunnels, links and TPS (TLT) components of the overall project.

    J1, J2 and W will be procured under a design-build-finance-operate-maintain model with a concession period of 25-35 years.

    J3 will be procured under a design-build-finance model with a concession period of 25-35 years. Once completed, Dubai Municipality will operate J3, unlike the first three packages, which are planned to be operated and maintained by the winning PPP contractors.  

    The project’s remaining two packages entail the expansion and upgrade of the Jebel Ali and Warsan sewage treatment plants.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12804424/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • TotalEnergies $11bn hydrogen project starts pre-feed

    30 October 2024

     

    France’s TotalEnergies has started the pre-front-end engineering and design (feed) for its planned $11bn integrated project to produce green hydrogen and ammonia in Morocco, according to a company spokesperson.

    TotalEnergies signed the joint development agreement with the relevant authorities and ministers in Morocco on 28 October, during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to the North African state.

    It was previously reported that the planned integrated facility would be located in Guelmim-Oued Noun in southern Morocco.

    TotalEnergies’ chairman and CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, signed the agreement for the local production of green hydrogen and ammonia in the presence of Morocco’s King Mohammed VI and Macron.

    The counterparties included Morocco’s Energy Minister, Leila Benali; Economy and Finance Minister, Nadia Fattah; Interior Minister, Abdelouafi Laftit; and Minister Delegate in charge of Investment, Karim Zidane.

    It is understood that the project will require the development of 10GW of solar and wind energy and a land area of 187,000 hectares.

    It was reported that Morocco’s Unified Regional Investment Commission had approved the project’s launch in November 2022.

    The other agreements signed during Macron’s visit to Morocco cover financial cooperation in the rail, forestry, aviation, logistics and energy sectors, with a particular focus on decarbonisation and energy transition.

    TotalEnergies has been exploring green hydrogen and other related projects in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    In August, the Courbevoie-headquartered firm and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) signed an agreement to assess the viability of developing a commercial green hydrogen-to-methanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (saf) project.

    It is also among the early investors in UK-based Xlinks First, which aims to deliver the $18bn Morocco-UK power interconnector project. TotalEnergies acquired a minority stake in the company following an investment of $25.4m announced in November last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12819510/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Decarbonising steel is hard to resist

    29 October 2024

    Commentary
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
    Energy & technology editor

    A pilot green hydrogen plant supplying a small amount of colourless gas that will be used to extract iron from iron ore – a key steelmaking step – is not a big deal, especially given the multibillion-dollar industrial and petrochemicals investments that this region has grown accustomed to over the past decades.  

    The project can be seen as a just one element of Abu Dhabi's multi-pronged strategy to decarbonise large swathes of its economy, given that the client for this project, the newly rebranded Emsteel, holds a 60% share in the local steel industry and exports products to about 70 countries.    

    The global steel industry accounts for about 7% of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

    On one hand, it will take a lot more than a few electrolysers to produce hydrogen that will be used to further decarbonise Emsteel's production and operations; on the other, a small first step is required to make a future big leap given the enormity and urgency of the challenge, and the vast investment it requires.

    Specific details are sparse regarding the pilot plant and the future timeline to scale hydrogen production at Emsteel's manufacturing complex in Abu Dhabi.

    However, as the executives of Emsteel and its hydrogen partner, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), have said, the completion of the pilot project is a vital first step towards producing certifiable green steel, which is expected to enjoy brisk demand as pressures to decarbonise sectors such as construction increase across the globe.

    As it is, Emsteel's credentials include being the world's first steelmaker to capture part of its carbon dioxide emissions, thanks to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (Adnoc) Al-Reyadah carbon capture, utilisation and storage facility. This has enabled the company to operate with "45% less carbon intensity than the global average". Its utilisation of clean energy also rose above 80% last year.

    Today, from the vantage point of the stakeholders, the specific details of the pilot project matter less than what it signifies, which is that Abu Dhabi intends to become a major green steel producer, and that it can transform a hard-to-abate sector into a hard to resist one.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12812275/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Neom to tender hydropower contract

    29 October 2024

     

    Neom's utility subsidiary Enowa is expected to issue the request for proposals (RFP) for a contract to develop and operate the first phase of a pumped hydropower storage (PHS) network catering to Saudi Arabia's Neom gigaproject before the end of the year.

    The planned first phase of Neom’s PHS project, known as Nestor, will have an installed capacity of 2,200MW and a storage capacity of 23.1 gigawatt-hours, or about 11 hours, according to industry sources.

    Enowa received statements of qualifications from international and local developers and investors on 30 June.

    However, it has yet to release the prequalification evaluation results. 

    "As far as we know, the RFP is set to be issued some time in December this year," a source familiar with the project tells MEED. 

    The Nestor project will be developed using a build-own-operate-transfer model that is expected to cover 40 years, excluding the construction period.

    The expected capital expenditure for the project is $2.7bn.

    Enowa received expressions of interest in bidding for the project from developers and contractors in January this year.

    PHS network

    The overall infrastructure will involve developing four PHS stations in Neom. The planned schemes will form the backbone of an energy storage infrastructure at the SR1.5tn ($500bn) development. 

    The other three planned PHS projects will be located in Al-Qimmah, Nima and Beach Mountain, and will have capacities of about 3,000MW, 1,000MW and 3,000MW, respectively.

    UK-based HSBC and US-based White & Case are advising the client on the scheme.

    The PHS independent power project will complement Neom’s planned multi-gigawatt renewable energy infrastructure, in line with its vision of being 100% powered by renewable energy by 2030.

    A PHS facility typically comprises two water reservoirs at different elevations that can generate power when water passes through a turbine and moves down or is discharged from the upper reservoir to the lower reservoir.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12812234/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • TotalEnergies signs $11bn Morocco green hydrogen deal

    29 October 2024

    France's TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to develop an $11bn project to produce hydrogen and green ammonia in Morocco.

    It was previously reported that the planned integrated facility will be located in Guelmim-Oued Noun in southern Morocco.

    The deal is one of 22 that were signed during French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to the North African state on 28 October.

    TotalEnergies' chairman and CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, signed the agreement for the local production of green hydrogen and ammonia in the presence of Morocco's King Mohammed VI and Macron, according to local media reports.

    The counterparty includes Morocco's Energy Minister, Leila Benali; Economy & Finance Minister, Nadia Fattah; Interior Minister, Abdelouafi Laftit; and Minister Delegate in charge of Investment, Karim Zidane.

    It is understood that the project will require the development of 10GW of solar and wind energy and a land area of 187,000 hectares.

    It was reported that Morocco's Unified Regional Investment Commission had approved the project’s launch in November 2022.

    The other agreements signed during Macron's visit to Morocco cover financial cooperation in the rail, forestry, aviation, logistics and energy sectors, with a particular focus on decarbonisaton and energy transition.

    TotalEnergies has been exploring green hydrogen and other related projects in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    In August, the Courbevoie-headquartered firm and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) signed an agreement to assess the viability of developing a commercial green hydrogen to methanol to sustainable aviation fuel (saf) project.

    It is also among the early investors in UK-based Xlinks First, which aims to deliver the $18bn Morocco-UK power interconnector project. TotalEnergies acquired a minority stake in the company following an investment of $25.4m, which was announced in November last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12811486/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo