meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Bahrain’s cautious economic evolution

5 November 2025

 

Bahrain’s economic outlook is currently defined by a steady but cautious sense of forward motion. The country has succeeded in maintaining growth driven almost entirely by the non-oil economy, while its reliance on hydrocarbons, though diminished, still shapes the fiscal landscape.

Public debt remains high and continues to constrain government spending, yet the state has avoided severe austerity and instead adopted a gradual approach to balancing economic reform with social stability.

Real GDP is expected to expand by 2.9% in 2025 in a slight improvement on the 2.6% growth rate in 2024, according to the IMF, and in an indication that non-oil sectors are gaining traction and that domestic demand and investment are holding up.

In 2026, growth is projected to rise further to 3.3%, suggesting that the economy is picking up momentum.

There have also been positive signs in foreign direct investment (FDI). In the second quarter of 2025, FDI inflows rose by 5.4%, according to the Ministry of Finance, led by the financial and insurance services sectors.

At the same time, the kingdom’s national debt – as a consequence of its persisting fiscal deficit – now stands at around 140% of GDP and weighs heavily on public finances.

Efforts at fiscal consolidation, such as subsidy reforms and spending controls, have been gradual, reflecting the government’s cautious approach to balancing fiscal responsibility with investment. Still, the underlying pressures are significant, and the cracks in Bahrain’s fiscal sustainability will remain a key risk factor for the foreseeable future.

Non-oil expansion

Looking closer at recent growth, the economy expanded by 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by a 3.5% surge in non-oil activity.

The non-oil sector is now responsible for over 80% of GDP and has become the main engine of growth, led by the finance, trade, real estate and hospitality sectors. Pro-business reforms and foreign investment incentives have supported this.

Financial services remain at the centre of Bahrain’s non-oil transition, with the country having long positioned itself as a regional banking and finance hub. In recent years, its regulatory openness and fintech-friendly environment, including in emerging spaces such as crypto, have become increasingly defining competitive advantages.

Flexible licensing, direct regulatory engagement and support from initiatives such as Bahrain FinTech Bay and the Central Bank of Bahrain's regulatory sandbox framework have all bolstered the country’s competitiveness – and the result has been an uptick in fintech, investment management and digital banking activity.

Tourism, too, has evolved into a structural contributor to national growth. Rather than attempting to compete with the scale and spectacle of Dubai or Doha, Manama has focused on cultivating a hospitality sector geared towards short-stay travel, weekend tourism within the Gulf, business events and cultural programming.

The opening of new hotels and entertainment venues, combined with the resumption of Gulf Air’s direct route to the US, has reinforced Bahrain’s strategic push to widen its global connectivity.

Manufacturing and logistics continue to play an important role, anchored by its Alba-led aluminium production and supported by Bahrain’s advantageous trade relationships, particularly its free trade agreement with the US.

While not the flashiest component of the economy, this industrial base provides resilience and employment diversity that helps counterbalance the more volatile elements of its service-sector expansion.

Real estate and regulation

The real estate and construction sector has grown in response to these economic shifts, but in a measured and demand-driven way. Unlike the rapid speculative development cycles observed elsewhere in the Gulf, Bahrain’s residential market has expanded moderately, with consistent demand coming primarily from middle-income Bahraini nationals and supported by subsidised housing and mortgage assistance programmes.

High-end residential developments exist but are not oversaturated, and the market overall has avoided the sharp imbalances seen in larger regional economies.

Large waterfront and mixed-use developments, such as Bahrain Bay and Marassi Al-Bahrain, outline the government’s focus on sustainable urban liveability and integrated community design – a key theme of the government’s 2023-26 national plan – rather than architectural statements.

Public infrastructure spending and hospitality expansion continue to sustain construction activity, though rising material and labour costs remain a concern. Commercial real estate is also stabilising after a period of oversupply, with new demand emerging from expanding financial and professional services firms.

From a regulatory perspective, the real estate sector has also been undergoing gradual liberalisation, especially in relation to foreign property ownership. While Bahrain has long allowed foreign nationals to own property in designated freehold zones, recent reforms have focused on expanding these zones as well as simplifying regulatory procedures and linking property ownership more directly to residency and long-term investment incentives.

The regulatory adjustments have also made it easier for foreign investors to own commercial office and retail space.

Taken together, these trends show a country reshaping its economic identity through deliberate adaptation rather than dramatic reinvention. Bahrain is not pursuing the hyper-scaled transformation seen in Saudi Arabia or the branding-driven global city strategy of Dubai.

Instead, it is cultivating a model grounded in regulatory agility, human capital development, manageable growth and incremental diversification.

At the same time, high debt levels and a narrowing fiscal space continue to pose risks to long-term stability and weigh on the kingdom’s economic trajectory.

Yet for now, the kingdom’s recent progress is something to be celebrated, even as its vulnerabilities are equally real.

Sustaining momentum will require continued investor confidence, tighter fiscal management and progress toward addressing longstanding social and political pressures, particularly those affecting youth employment and public trust.

The question is whether its governance, fiscal policy and social framework can continue to evolve at a pace that matches the economic transformation already under way.

MEED's December special report on Bahrain also includes:

> BANKING: Mergers loom over Bahrain’s banking system
> OIL & GAS: Bahrain remains in pursuit of hydrocarbon resources
> CONSTRUCTION: Bahrain construction faces major slowdown

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15025369/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Visa agrees to support digital payments in Syria

    5 December 2025

    Visa and the Central Bank of Syria have agreed on a strategic roadmap that will allow the US-based card and digital payments company to begin operations in Syria and support the development of a modern digital payments system.

    Under the agreement, Visa will work with licensed Syrian financial institutions under a phased plan to establish a secure foundation for digital payments.

    The early stages will involve Visa supporting the central bank in issuing Europay, Mastercard and Visa (EMV)-compliant payment cards and enabling tokenised digital wallets – bringing the country in line with internationally interoperable standards.

    Visa will also provide access to its platforms, including near-field communication (NFC) and QR-based payments, invest in local capacity building and support local entrepreneurs seeking to develop solutions leveraging Visa’s global platform.

    “A reliable and transparent payment system is the bedrock of economic recovery and a catalyst that builds the confidence required for broader investment to flow into the country,” noted Visa’s senior VP for the Levant, Leila Serhan. “This partnership is about choosing a path where Syria can leapfrog decades of legacy infrastructure development and immediately adopt the secure, open platforms that power modern commerce.”

    The move marks one of the most significant steps yet in Syria’s slow and uneven return to the formal global financial system and carries implications that reach beyond just payments technology.

    It lays the groundwork for overturning more than a decade of financial isolation in which Syria has operated largely outside global banking and settlement networks.

    Visa’s entry will not erase all existing barriers – as many restrictions remain in force and will continue to shape what is practically possible – but its support signals a reopening of channels that could smooth Syria’s reintegration into financial networks.

    The involvement of the US-based payments provider is also a further tacit sign of the US government’s enthusiastic bear hug of the new post-Assad Syrian government under President Ahmed Al-Sharaa.

    For investors assessing long-term opportunities, the presence of a globally recognised payments operator will provide reassurance that Syria’s financial system is returning to international norms, and the security and transparency that comes with it.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15207198/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Meraas announces next phase of Nad Al-Sheba Gardens

    5 December 2025

    Dubai-based real estate developer Meraas Holding, which is part of Dubai Holding, has announced the eleventh and final phase of its Nad Al-Sheba Gardens residential community in Dubai.

    It includes the development of 210 new villas and townhouses and a school, which will be located at the northwest corner of the development.

    The latest announcement follows Meraas awarding a AED690m ($188m) contract for the construction of the fourth phase of the Nad Al-Sheba Gardens community in May, as MEED reported.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Bhatia General Contracting.

    The scope of the contract covers the construction of 92 townhouses, 96 villas and two pool houses.

    The contract award came after Dubai-based investment company Shamal Holding awarded an estimated AED80m ($21m) contract to UK-based McLaren Construction last year for the Nad Al-Sheba Gardens mall.

    The project covers the construction and interior fit-out of a two-storey mall, covering an area of approximately 12,600 square metres.

    The UAE’s heightened real estate activity is in line with UK analytics firm GlobalData’s forecast that the construction industry in the country will register annual growth of 3.9% in 2025-27, supported by investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, oil and gas, housing, industrial and tourism projects. 

    The residential construction sector is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 2.7% in 2025-28, supported by private investments in the residential housing sector, along with government initiatives to meet rising housing demand.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15206904/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Frontrunner emerges for Riyadh-Qassim IWTP

    5 December 2025

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest has emerged as frontrunner for the contract to develop the Riyadh-Qassim independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project, according to sources.

    State water offtaker Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) is preparing to award the contract for the IWTP "in the coming weeks", the sources told MEED.

    The project, valued at about $2bn, will have a transmission capacity of 685,000 cubic metres a day. It will include a pipeline length of 859 kilometres (km) and a total storage capacity of 1.59 million cubic metres.

    In September, MEED reported that bids had been submitted by two consortiums and one individual company.

    The first consortium comprises Saudi firms Al-Jomaih Energy & Water, Al-Khorayef Water & Power Technologies, AlBawani Capital and Buhur for Investment Company.

    The second consortium comprises Bahrain/Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding, the UAE's Etihad Water & Electricity (Ewec) and China’s Shaanxi Construction Installation Group.

    The third bid was submitted by Saudi Arabia's Vision Invest.

    It is understood that financial and technical bids have now been opened and Vision Invest is likely to be awarded the deal.

    The Riyadh-based investment and development company made a "very aggressive" offer, one source told MEED.

    In November, the firm announced it had sold a 10% stake in Saudi Arabia-based Miahona as part of a strategy to reallocate capital "towards new and diversified investments".

    The company did not disclose which projects the capital might be reallocated towards.

    As MEED recently reported, Vision Invest is also bidding for two major packages under Dubai's $22bn tunnels programme in a consortium with France's Suez Water Company.

    The Riyadh-Qassim transmission project is the third IWTP contract to be tendered by SWPC since 2022.   

    The first two are the 150km Rayis-Rabigh IWTP, which is under construction, and the 603km Jubail-Buraydah IWTP, the contract for which was awarded to a team of Riyadh-based companies comprising Al-Jomaih Energy & Water, Nesma Group and Buhur for Investment Company.

    Like the first two IWTPs, the Riyadh-Qassim IWTP project will be developed using a 35-year build-own-operate-transfer contracting model.

    Commercial operations are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15206609/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Adnoc creates new company to operate Ghasha concession

    5 December 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The board of directors of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) has approved the establishment of a new company to operate the Ghasha offshore sour gas concession in Abu Dhabi waters.

    The decision to create the new entity, to be called Adnoc Ghasha, was taken during a recent meeting of Adnoc Group’s board in Abu Dhabi, which was chaired by Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, UAE President and Ruler of Abu Dhabi.

    Adnoc Group owns and operates the Ghasha concession, holding the majority 55% stake. The other stakeholders in the asset are Italian energy major Eni with a 25% stake, Thailand’s PTTEP Holding, which holds a 10% interest, and Russia’s Lukoil, owning the remaining 10% stake.

    The Ghasha concession consists of the Hail and Ghasha fields, along with the Hair Dalma, Satah al-Razboot (Sarb), Bu Haseer, Nasr, Shuwaihat and Mubarraz fields.

    Adnoc expects total gas production from the concession to ramp up to more than 1.8 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) before the end of the decade, along with 150,000 barrels a day of oil and condensates. This target will mainly be achieved through the Hail and Ghasha sour gas development project.

    In October 2023, Adnoc and its partners awarded $16.94bn of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for its Hail and Ghasha project – the biggest capital expenditure made by the Abu Dhabi energy company on a single project in its history.

    Adnoc awarded the onshore EPC package to Italian contractor Tecnimont, while the offshore EPC package was awarded to a consortium of Abu Dhabi’s NMDC Energy and Italian contractor Saipem.

    The $8.2bn contract relates to EPC work on offshore facilities, including facilities on artificial islands and subsea pipelines.

    The Hail and Ghasha development will also feature a plant that will capture and purify carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for sequestration (CCS), in line with Adnoc’s committed investment for a carbon capture capacity of almost 4 million tonnes a year (t/y). The CO2 recovery plant will have a total capacity to capture and store 1.5 million t/y of emissions from the Hail and Ghasha scheme.

    Prior to reaching the final investment decision on the Hail and Ghasha project in 2023, the Ghasha concession partners, led by Adnoc, awarded two EPC contracts worth $1.46bn in November 2021 to execute offshore and onshore EPC works on the Dalma gas development project. The project will enable the Dalma field to produce about 340 million cf/d of natural gas.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15206382/main2754.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai RTA announces Al-Wasl road development project

    5 December 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has announced the Al-Wasl Road upgrade project, spanning 15 kilometres (km) from the intersection with Umm Suqeim Street to the junction with 2nd December Street.

    The scheme includes upgrading six intersections – Al-Thanya, Al-Manara, Umm Al-Sheif, Umm Amara, Al-Orouba and Al-Safa streets – along with upgrading Al-Thanya Street and constructing five tunnels totalling 3.8km.

    A new tunnel will be built at the intersection with Al-Manara Street. It will consist of three lanes and split into two routes: two lanes from Sheikh Zayed Road to Jumeirah Street and two lanes from Sheikh Zayed Road to Umm Suqeim Street, with a total capacity of 4,500 vehicles per hour.

    The project also includes a 750m-long tunnel on Umm Al-Sheif Street, comprising two lanes from Sheikh Zayed Road to Jumeirah Street, accommodating up to 3,200 vehicles per hour.

    A tunnel will be constructed at the intersection of Al-Wasl Road with Umm Amara Street, featuring two lanes in each direction, with a total length of 700m and a combined capacity of 6,400 vehicles per hour.

    The road will also be widened from two to three lanes in each direction.

    The project is expected to reduce travel times along Al-Wasl Road by 50% and increase capacity from 8,000 to 12,000 vehicles per hour in both directions.

    Planning for growth

    In March 2021, the government launched the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. Its launch referenced studies indicating that the emirate’s population will reach 5.8 million by 2040, up from 3.3 million in 2020. The daytime population is set to increase from 4.5 million in 2020 to 7.8 million in 2040.

    In December 2022, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, approved the 20-Minute City Policy as part of the second phase of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan. 

    In addition to the road projects, the RTA’s Dubai Metro Blue Line extension forms part of Dubai’s plans to improve residents’ quality of life by cutting journey times, as outlined in the policy.

    The policy aims to ensure that residents can meet 80% of their daily requirements within a 20-minute journey time, on foot or by bicycle. This goal will be achieved by developing integrated service centres with all necessary facilities and by increasing population density around mass transit stations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15205950/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal