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Acquisition with a view to transition

24 October 2024

 

Adnoc International’s $16.3bn bid for German plastics group Covestro, signed on 1 October, has called fresh attention to the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region as a source of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

The deal by the UAE state energy company’s overseas business arm, which is the largest Mena deal of the year, is just one of a string of acquisitions by regional energy companies seeking to diversify both sectorally and in terms of geography. And energy – notably the low-carbon variant – has emerged as a key focus for buyers.

Within the Mena region, the GCC remains the mainstay of deal flow, with its clutch of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and government-related entities (GREs) underpinning activity through transformative agendas that are shaped by government-led ambitions to shift away from oil and gas and embrace newer areas of the economy.

The figures underscore the Gulf bias in M&A deal flow. Ten of the Mena region’s highest-valued M&As in the first six months of 2024 were concentrated in the GCC region. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia saw a combined 152 deals worth $9.8bn and were among the top Mena bidder countries in terms of deal volume and value, according to data from EY.

The largest transaction came in February, when private equity firms including Clayton Dubilier & Rice, Stone Point Capital and Mubadala Investment announced the acquisition of Truist Insurance Holdings, the US’s fifth-largest insurance brokerage, for $12.4bn – a sign that Gulf entities have the appetite and balance sheet to lock down opportunities in North America. 

Indeed, according to EY, the US remained the preferred target destination for Mena outbound investors in the first half of 2024, with 19 deals amounting to $16.6bn.

Meanwhile, Gulf-based SWFs dominate in regional M&A activity in terms of deal value. Consultancy Bain & Company says they represented 86% of deal value in 2023, either directly or through portfolio companies.

Industrial focus

Sector-specific drivers have come to the fore for some participants, and that is evident in the spread of M&A activity. Take Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), which acquired steel companies Al-Rajhi Steel and Hadeed last year, from Rajhi Invest and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, respectively, creating a national champion in a domestic steel sector that has consolidated.

Similarly, Adnoc’s Covestro acquisition confirms the prominent role that national oil companies continue to play as they morph into energy companies with more diverse product slates, and in turn are required to grow inorganically at times. 

The Covestro deal represents a similar move to the PIF’s steel sector play last year. The German company would become a key plank in Adnoc’s ambition to create a speciality chemicals business. In a similar way, Borealis, in which Adnoc is a minority stakeholder, acquired Austrian chemicals group Integra Plastics in a deal announced in April 2024.

“The acquisitions from Adnoc are in line with a vision that they set out [in 2017], when the company restructured and broadened its scope to be a global business, looking actively for global opportunities to grow and diversify,” says Alice Gower, a partner at Azure Strategy.

She says that the interest in the European downstream sector is “a really smart move, because it not only ensures a market for their products, but it replaces Russian supplies and creates a dependency between Europe and, in this case, the Saudis or Emiratis”.

UAE companies’ interest in buying into European industrial firms has been evident this year. February saw Adnoc complete its long-running effort to acquire a 24.9% stake in Austrian petrochemicals firm OMV, and in May, state held Emirates Global Aluminium completed the acquisition of German aluminium recycling firm Leichtmetall Aluminium Giesserei Hannover. 

Another geographic theme has seen GCC firms target Asia and Africa – the latter increasingly a focus in terms of its resource opportunity, as well as its capacity to provide a growing consumer market with an emergent middle class.

Last year, Asia figured in some of the biggest deals involving Mena companies, such as the $2bn investment by the UAE’s Mubadala in Chinese fashion retail firm Shein, and Qatar Investment Authority’s purchase of a $1bn stake in India’s Reliance Retail Ventures.

Resources – particularly transition minerals – look set to remain a prominent theme for Mena dealmakers. In Africa, the UAE’s International Resource Holding, an affiliate of Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed-headed International Holding Company, completed its acquisition of Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mine in March 2023, paying $1.1bn for a 51% stake. The UAE firm has moved into critical metals and sees this entity as playing a key role in developing the metal and mining supply chain.

Energy transition

The energy transition will continue to push Gulf acquirers’ M&A agendas. 

Abu Dhabi’s Masdar, eyeing a target 100GW of clean energy by 2030, has become an active M&A player. In June, it acquired a 67% stake in Greek company Terna Energy for $2.9bn. 

Deal flow at Masdar has been brisk, with a deal struck in September to acquire renewable energy provider Saeta Yield from US investment firm Brookfield for $1.4bn, handing it significant power assets in Spain and Portugal and a 1.6GW development pipeline. 

Masdar has also been growing its US foothold, closing a deal in October for a 50% stake in US renewables company Terra-Gen, which boasts a wind, solar and battery storage portfolio of 3.8GW.

Meanwhile, with the PIF and Mubadala both committed to net-zero targets by 2050, in addition to working to decarbonise their existing portfolios, the funds are investing in green assets and in technologies that support decarbonisation, notes Bain & Company. 

Azure Strategy’s Gower cautions against reading too much into the professed diversification agenda, however. 

“Everybody talks about diversification, but if you actually look at what they’re investing in, it’s not that far from the fossil fuel industry,” she says. 

“There is a vertical integration logic: you’re upstream and you want to then become more involved in midstream and downstream – that makes sense. But the businesses that they are buying are pretty low-margin, so there has to
be a different reason behind this approach.”

Instead, defensive motivations are in play. “It is about capturing shares in assets across different markets in order to spread risk, and then diversifying revenue streams away from direct exports, given their geographic location,” she says. 

“Look at what is going on in the region at the moment, and the increase in shipping costs, the instability and insecurity risk.”

Banking mergers

M&A in the Mena banking sector has slowed down in the past five years, following a spate of deals that mainly reflected the reordering of state holdings in large Gulf banks.

In March 2024, the Egyptian subsidiary of Bahrain’s Bank ABC completed its merger with the Egyptian subsidiary of Lebanon’s Blom Bank, tripling Bank ABC’s market share in Egypt.

Market speculation is now centring on consolidation within Kuwait’s banking sector.

The proposed merger of Boubyan Bank and Gulf Bank – Kuwait’s third- and fifth-largest lenders – would create an Islamic lender with assets of about $53bn.

“GCC banks in general have been keeping their options open because these are small, concentrated economies and markets, and therefore international expansion will help diversify business models and improve profitability,” says Redmond Ramsdale, senior director for banks at Fitch Ratings.

M&A moves have taken Gulf banks into the wider region. 

“External growth is part of some GCC banks’ strategy to diversify business models and improve profitability,” says Ramsdale. “By deploying capital into high-growth markets, they may be able to compensate for weaker growth in their home markets.”

In the wider Mena region, M&A activity in 2025 will be driven by the big regional SWFs and GREs. The need to decarbonise their portfolios will shape inorganic growth strategies as they look to buy lower-carbon assets ‘off the shelf’ to meet net-zero and emission-reduction targets.

With sizeable acquisition budgets at their disposal, these players do not lack the financial firepower to target assets that will help them meet their goals.

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James Gavin

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    > This package also includes: Damage avoidance frames debt issuance

    Both the number and value of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) fell in 2025. Any hopes that the trend might be turned around this year have largely disappeared thanks to the Iran war.

    Stock markets tumbled in the opening days of the conflict and, unless they have a good reason not to, most companies thinking of launching onto the stock market are likely to put their plans on hold until there is greater certainty about the direction of political and economic events. 

    According to global advisory firm EY, there were 49 new listings across the Mena region last year, five fewer than the year before, when activity was at a near-record level. The value of the market debuts last year dropped by far more though, with total proceeds falling to $7.3bn, down by 42% compared to the $12.5bn seen in 2024 and the lowest annual total since 2020.

    One reason for this was the notable slowdown in the UAE, where confidence may have been dented by the poor performance of several new listings in recent years. In 2025, there were just three IPOs across the UAE’s markets, compared to seven the year before. 

    Last year’s listings included one on the Abu Dhabi Exchange (ADX) and two on the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), between them raising $1.1bn. The largest was the Dubai Residential Reit, which secured proceeds of $584m on the DFM in May. Technology firm Alpha Data raised $163m on the ADX in March, while construction and engineering company Alec Holding’s IPO brought in $381m in October.

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    Saudi Arabia was by far the most active market last year – maintaining its position as the dominant bourse in the region. It hosted 39 IPOs, including 15 on the Tadawul main market and 24 on the junior Nomu market. Between them, these raised $4.9bn, or two-thirds of the regional total, with the majority coming via the main market listings. 

    Across the other GCC states, there were just two listings: Asyad Shipping Company on the Muscat Stock Exchange, which netted proceeds of $333m in March 2025, and Action Energy Company on the Boursa Kuwait, which raised $180m in December. 

    Bahrain and Qatar saw no new listings and the total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc was the lowest since 2021. 

    Activity outside the Gulf was even more limited, although the five IPOs last year – three on Morocco’s Casablanca Stock Exchange and two on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) – was the most since 2018. 

    These listings raised a little more than $700m between them, with the largest being the $525m secured by construction company Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc on the Casablanca bourse late in the year.

    The mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market proved more robust in 2025, with 635 deals completed in the region last year. That marked a 33% year-on-year rise and saw the market return to its 2022 peak, according to global professional services company PwC.

    The total included 238 inbound M&A deals, up from 182 the year before – and was the first significant rise in foreign investment since 2023. From within the region, sovereign wealth funds played a central role, in line with their mandates to help diversify their home economies.

    The total of 44 IPOs for the six-country Gulf bloc [in 2025] was the lowest since 2021

    Optimism dampened

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    EY said 18 companies and funds had expressed an intention to list in the first quarter, including 16 in Saudi Arabia alone.

    The reality has been very different, with just a handful of listings across the Arab world in the first quarter of the year. 

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    The market in the Gulf has almost dried up, although a couple of deals have gone ahead since the war began on 28 February. 

    There was just one new listing on the Saudi Tadawul in the first quarter, with construction firm Saleh Abdulaziz Al-Rashed & Sons raising $67m via its debut on 11 March.

    Retailer Trolley General Trading Company also listed on the Premier Market of Boursa Kuwait via a private placement in March. EFG Hermes, which acted as a global coordinator and bookrunner on the transaction, said the size of the offer had been increased from 30% of the company’s issued share capital to 35% due to strong investor demand, with total proceeds reaching $195m. 

    Co-head of investment banking at EFG Hermes, Karim Meleka, described it as “a successful transaction in an uncertain market”. It was also the largest IPO in the Middle East and Africa in Q1 2026, according to financial data provider Dealogic. 

    The prospects for the rest of the year have been badly dented by the war, in line with the dimmer economic outlook. In its latest forecast, issued in April, the World Bank said it expects GDP growth across the GCC to slow to 1.3% this year, compared to the prediction of 4.4% growth it made in January. 

    If a lasting peace deal can be agreed, then some sectors could see a quick rebound, but some key areas of economic activity, such as tourism, could take far longer to recover. And the pain will not be evenly spread. The World Bank expects Saudi Arabia will post 3.1% growth in GDP this year, but the economies of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar will contract by 8.6%, 6.4% and 5.7%, respectively.

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    It is still early days, but Gulf fixed-income markets appear to have averted the worst of the conflict, with limited selloffs witnessed during the first six weeks of the Iran war.

    This reflects a strong tailwind for GCC debt capital markets (DCM) in 2026, for both conventional and sukuk (Islamic bonds) – even if geopolitical turmoil may upend issuers’ best-laid plans. 

    Issuers started this year on the front foot, with Fitch Ratings recording $1.2bn in outstanding issuance as of 9 March, an increase of 14% in year-on-year terms, almost two-thirds of which is denominated in US dollars. 

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    Last year proved an active one for Gulf DCM issuance. Overall, GCC countries accounted for 35% of all emerging market dollar debt issuance in 2025 (excluding China). According to Kuwait-based Markaz, primary debt issuances of bonds and sukuk in the GCC amounted to $189.47bn, through 515 issuances, up 28.13% on 2024.

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    The kingdom’s National Debt Management Centre’s long-term plan envisages 45%-60% of borrowing from domestic and international DCM, the latter comprising about $14bn-$20bn. 

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    “You would expect to see probably a lower level of issuance in Saudi Arabia, where the banks were contributing to a significant amount of issuance. They will probably see lower landing growth this year, which could result in lower overall refinancing needs,” says Damak. 

    The UAE is another prominent Gulf issuer that entered 2026 with a robust pipeline of DCM activity in the works. 

    Last year, issuance of $47.71bn absorbed a quarter of all GCC issuance, a 24% increase on 2024. That put it comfortably ahead of Kuwait on $23.7bn, and Qatar on $22.47bn, although one of the fastest increases in DCM issuance last year was from Bahrain, which raised $11.24bn, a 63% increase on the previous year.

    UAE DCM was expected to exceed $350bn this year, notes Fitch Ratings, supported by strong sukuk issuance and the need to diversify funding sources. Dollar sukuk issuance in the UAE last year grew on 21.4% in 2024.

    Ceasefire dependency

    Much will inevitably hinge on the evolution of the Iran conflict. Here, it may pay to take the long-lens view, say analysts. “The liquidity declines observed in the Middle East and North Africa and GCC sukuk are unlikely to be permanent,” says Fitch’s Al-Natoor. 

    “As stability returns and the ceasefire holds, liquidity is expected to gradually recover, although the pace of recovery will be heavily dependent on investor confidence and sentiment.”

    Al-Natoor emphasises that the market itself has not undergone a structural transformation. Instead, some investors have repriced risk and adjusted premiums to reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 

    “This distinction matters, as the underlying fundamentals of GCC credit remain intact, with the majority of issuers holding stable outlooks. Notably, the number of GCC issuers placed on Rating Watch Negative increased during this period, reflecting elevated uncertainty.”

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    “Perceptions and risk appetite may take time to recalibrate,” says Al-Natoor. 

    “Despite that, there has been some private placement activity during this period, which hints that investors may be selectively engaging with the market while monitoring developments. 

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    “The fundamentals remain solid, but longer-term effects will ultimately depend on post-war sentiment and market access,” says Al-Natoor. 

    “We continue to see subdued dollar-denominated issuance, although some local currency activity persists.” 

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    James Gavin
  • Conflict tests UAE diversification

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    John Bambridge
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    The UAE entered 2026 as the region’s strongest economic performer, with GDP forecast at 5% and construction output at a record $59bn. The Iran conflict that began on 28 February did not simply damage assets; it stress-tested the structural assumptions underpinning that performance.

    This occurred across a clear fault line. Sectors with state depth behind them have largely held; sectors built on openness and connectivity have not.

    Banks entered the crisis in the best shape in a decade. Capital adequacy at 17.1% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77.7% as of Q4 2025 gave lenders genuine capacity to absorb the shock. Emirates NBD raised $2.25bn in syndicated financing in what it described as the tightest pricing in its history. This was a clear signal that international confidence in the UAE’s financial architecture, if not its near-term growth trajectory, remains intact.

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s capital programmes are also continuing. Gas processing expansion targeting 30% additional output capacity by 2030 is advancing through final investment decisions, even as Habshan – one of the programme’s key sites – sustained damage in the 3 April strikes. Infrastructure investment on a five-year horizon is not managed on six-week threat windows.

    Energy infrastructure took the most visible physical hit. Export routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained, Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al-Taweelah smelter faces up to a year of restoration, and the full damage assessment across Abu Dhabi’s industrial corridor is not yet complete.

    Aviation, tourism and trade logistics absorbed a simultaneous shock. Airline operational capacity dropped dramatically and is still working to find a new equilibrium. Hotel occupancy fell from a reported monthly average of 86% to a weekly average below 23% within a fortnight. Prior to the conflict, Jebel Ali was the most connected container port in the Middle East, and carriers have concentrated transshipment traffic there to mitigate Red Sea disruptions. The closure of Hormuz severed the hub and unmade the logic of the recent traffic consolidation.

    The transit hub paradox is now observable rather than theoretical. Dubai’s competitive advantage rests on connectivity; that connectivity is also its vulnerability. When the Gulf becomes unsafe, Dubai’s own trade does not simply freeze; its hub function collapses.

    What the ceasefire opens is a recovery window, not an immediate reversal of impacts. Traveller confidence, insurer risk pricing and carrier route economics do not normalise with a political announcement. The summer travel season, which begins in May, will provide the first measurable answer to how much of the pre-conflict model is recoverable – and how quickly.

     

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    John Bambridge
  • Firms submit Qiddiya high-speed rail EPC prequalifications

    22 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received bids on 16 April from firms for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    Firms interested in bidding for the project on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis have been given until 30 April to submit their prequalification statements, as MEED reported earlier this month.

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.

    The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.

    In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land. 

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    Yasir Iqbal