Abu Dhabi may need to procure over 16GW of thermal power capacity and around 14GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity by 2031 to meet rising demand as well as clean energy goals.

Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) expects some "16.3 GW of additional thermal capacity is

required by 2036", the company's capacity procurement statement issued in September stated.

This could be fulfilled by reconfiguring thermal power generation plants whose power-purchase agreements (PPA) are due to expire between 2025 and 2030 and by procuring combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) plants, with a combined total capacity of roughly 12GW by 2031.

It also expects solar PV installed capacity to reach between 16GW and 20GW by the end of 2036.

These projects are in response to the expected peak demand growth of 30 per cent between 2022 and 2029, according to Ewec.

Thermal replacement and expansion

Capacity requirement in the intervening period between 2025 and 2031 calls for additional thermal capacity of around 6.3GW due to some 7GW of expiring capacity, the state offtaker said.

It added that by 2030, the recommended optimal new solar PV capacity is around 4.5GW- 6GW, including the two committed projects at Sweihan PV and Al-Dhafra.T

Ewec expects that the emirate's total solar PV capacity will reach 7.2-8.5GW by the end of the decade.

Under the latest Ewec plan, it may enter into extension negotiations with the developers of Sweihan 1, Taweelah A1, Taweelah  B2 and 3 and Fujairah F2 to meet increased thermal power generation capacity, expanding these plants' capacities by up to 6.3GW by 2031.

The remaining requirements will be met through five new CCGT or OCGT plants.

The first of these new gas-fired independent power producer (IPP) projects is located in Sweihan, as MEED reported.

Ewec expects the plant to reach commercial operation by 2027.

Another IPP with the same capacity, Taweelah C IPP, is planned with a target commercial operation date of 2029.

Three other new CCGT plants are under consideration until 2031. They will be located in ICAD, Mirfa and Mina Sagr.

Ewec last awarded a gas-fired IPP contract in February 2020. The 2,400MW Fujairah F3 CCGT plant is expected to complete this year.

Japan-based Marubeni Corporation will develop and operate the $1.1bn F3 project.

Marubeni submitted the second-lowest bid of 16.812 AED fils a kilowatt hour (fils/kWh) for the combined-cycle gas turbine scheme in 2019.

Another team, led by France’s Engie, submitted the lowest bid of 16.7901 fils/kWh.

France’s EDF and Japan’s Jera submitted a tariff price of 17.109 fils/kWh for the F3 project.