Abu Dhabi and Riyadh compete for capacity
24 March 2025
Electricity generation installed capacity from renewable and nuclear energy sources is expected to overtake conventional installed capacity in Abu Dhabi by 2029.
Based on known projects that are under various stages of procurement and in line with a plan to procure 1.5GW of renewable capacity annually until the mid-2030s, as well as an assumption that the contracts for thermal capacities expiring between 2025 and 2029 will not be renewed, the UAE capital could see its total electricity generation installed capacity rise to approximately 38.5GW by 2029, up from around 22GW as of the end of 2024.
This figure includes the 5.2GW capacity from the solar photovoltaic (PV) project being built by Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), which is expected to come on stream in 2027. The project will supply up to 1GW of baseload capacity in tandem with a 19 gigawatt-hour battery energy storage system plant.
By 2029, the share of renewable energy is expected to reach 37% and nuclear energy 14% of total installed capacity. Capacity from gas-fired fleets is forecast to be 49%, down from 69% this year.
This scenario assumes that all projects under procurement and construction achieve commercial operations according to their timeline, that all four gas-fired fleets with a combined expiring capacity of 7.2GW are not extended, and that another 1.5GW solar PV project will be launched next year, following the Al-Zarraf solar IPP.
This further implies that at least 1.5GW of renewable energy capacity will start operating annually from 2026, and planned gas-fired power plants will be completed successively between 2027 and 2029. It precludes the launch of new thermal power projects apart from those already known or announced.
This massive capacity buildout, equivalent to between 16GW or 70% and 21GW or 94%, if the round-the-clock solar capacity is included, of its current installed capacity, requires Abu Dhabi to rapidly upgrade its grid infrastructure and deploy substantial battery energy storage capacity to ensure grid resilience and flexibility.
Competing for capacity
It also tests the capacity of developers and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors, which are equally beholden to pursue new contracts in Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom faces a pending deadline to decommission ageing liquid fuel-fired plants as part of an overall energy transition plan for its electricity sector. It aspires to procure 20GW of renewable energy capacity annually until 2030 "subject to demand growth", and have renewable sources account for half its electricity generation capacity at the end of the forecast period.
According to MEED Projects and MEED data, Saudi Arabia entered what could be the busiest period for power generation capacity buildout in its history this year, with over 50GW of power generation projects under construction, or about to start construction.
This is equivalent to over a quarter of its current installed capacity, which will also require a 60% expansion of its electricity grid coverage.
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The scale and volume of contracts in both jurisdictions are a positive development for many developers and contractors, following a major slowdown in the years before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Even those extremely cautious about solar PV projects' ability to deliver desired profits, or those obliged to say no to thermal projects that do not offer a clear carbon capture path, can pivot to the rapidly expanding battery energy storage projects or, indeed, the potential hydropower projects in Neom in Saudi Arabia.
Retreating bidders
It must be noted, however, that several international utility developers are shifting their geographical focus away from the region and have expressed a desire not to compete in the upcoming tenders for power generation projects.
As a result, the latest tenders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi generally received fewer-than-expected bids. This trend may continue due to distinct factors affecting each fuel type.
“The volume of utility-scale gas projects is outstripping the availability of credible developers,” notes a senior executive with an advisory firm in the UAE. “Either they are already overloaded, withdrawing from the gas market, or uninterested in a particular country.”
Another key issue for developers and EPC contractors, regardless of the location of these projects, is the gas turbine original equipment manufacturer (OEM) gridlock, which affects delivery time and prices.
In general, top OEM manufacturers are caught between two choices: expand their capacity to accommodate rising demand and secure substantial cash flow going forward, or ignore the short to medium-term demand and eliminate the risk of building capacity that may be stranded beyond 2030, when clients may stop procuring new gas utility plants.
On the other hand, interest in renewables may remain intact, subject to improving returns prospects, another expert tells MEED.
Nonetheless, these developments translate to significant opportunities, particularly for local developers, EPC contractors and other OEM manufacturers – such as Italy's Ansaldo Energia – which have remained on the fringes of the region's utility power projects markets for many years.
Chinese firms that previously only focused on EPC, for instance, are gradually stepping up to the role of utility developers, which can help ensure that the region's offtakers continue to secure world-record-low tariffs for future projects.
This, however, may also seal the decisions by more established developers to exit the region for good.
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Iraq enters era of resilience, reform and rising risks
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Iraq’s projects market is at an inflection point. The country has built a sizeable and increasingly diverse projects pipeline, backed by ambitious national plans and an improving reform narrative. But according to MEED’s newly updated Iraq Projects Market report, the near-term outlook is now being tested by renewed regional volatility and persistent structural constraints at home.
Iraq is the Middle East and North Africa’s fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP, yet it remains heavily exposed to the hydrocarbons cycle. Oil and gas generate about 90% of government revenues and more than 40% of GDP, a dependency that shapes annual capital spending and the bankability of public-private partnership (PPP) deals. Earlier this year, the IMF forecast GDP growth of 3%-4%. In light of the latest regional conflict dynamics involving the US and Israel with Iran, that growth outlook is expected to soften as investor risk perceptions rise and supply chains face renewed stress.
Even so, Iraq’s projects market is not starting from a blank slate. By the end of March 2026, almost $120bn of contracts were in execution, with a further $300.4bn in the broader pipeline. The scale of that opportunity is underpinned by enduring reconstruction requirements, urgent energy-sector needs and a policy push to translate oil wealth into long-lived productive assets.
Reconstruction needs
Nearly a decade after the official end of the Islamic State conflict, Iraq’s reconstruction gap remains substantial. Estimates put the shortfall at about $88bn, reflecting the long tail of damage to housing, utilities, public buildings and transport links. Southern and central regions dominate the live pipeline, largely because they sit close to Iraq’s oil heartlands. Basra, in particular, is pivotal, anchoring major upstream activity and vital export infrastructure.
At the policy level, Iraq Vision 2030 signals a long-term ambition to diversify into tourism, agriculture, industry and digital transformation. The government’s immediate delivery vehicle is the National Development Plan (NDP) 2024-28, which commits more than $17bn a year in capital expenditure and prioritises energy, transport, housing and water infrastructure. This shift is reinforced by Iraq’s Green Growth Framework (2026), indicating that future procurement may place greater weight on efficiency, emissions reduction and climate resilience.
Macro risk
Despite policy ambition, the most immediate determinant of Iraq’s fiscal room is the oil price. A $10-a-barrel drop can reduce government revenue by an estimated $7bn-$9bn annually. Such sensitivity matters because infrastructure spending is still largely funded by the public purse. Oil price swings affect project awards, payment cycles and the government’s willingness to assume up-front capex obligations.
Iraq’s execution environment continues to be defined by bureaucratic delays, unclear land titles and opaque procurement processes. These factors can add 12-24 months to average delivery timelines. Nevertheless, there are signs of adaptation. PPP legislation is advancing, and developer-led models are gaining traction in large housing programmes. Furthermore, there is a growing reliance on international project management consultancy (PMC) firms—such as Hill International, Worley, and AtkinsRealis—to bridge capacity gaps and improve governance, cost control and scheduling.
Hydrocarbon driver
Oil and gas upstream remains the single largest driver of capital expenditure. Major developments, including the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) and Mansouriya, sit alongside a push to reduce gas flaring and expand downstream processing. The objective is to sustain export revenues while improving domestic fuel availability.
The power sector is even more urgent. Iraq faces an estimated 8-10GW generation shortfall, which keeps electricity supply at the centre of political risk. This gap is driving rapid procurement of generation capacity and grid upgrade contracts. Beyond traditional infrastructure, Iraq is also moving on digital adoption. Smart city pilots and fibre rollouts are attracting regional technology investors, while AI-enabled data centre projects are beginning to emerge.
Investment targets
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains below $3bn a year, a low figure relative to market size. The most active investors outside the oil sector include the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. To convert interest into deals, the National Investment Commission (NIC) is pursuing streamlined licensing and investor-protection reforms. A “one-stop shop” approach has reportedly reduced registration timelines for foreign investors from months to weeks in key sectors.
Investor protection mechanisms, such as access to international arbitration, are being strengthened, though enforcement remains a concern. Iraq’s three free zones—Basra, Karbala and Nineveh—offer additional incentives including tax holidays and customs exemptions, provided they can be paired with reliable utilities and bankable arrangements.
Conflict premium
The latest escalation involving the US and Israel with Iran has increased Iraq’s security risk premium. This is inflating materials costs and disrupting supply chains near eastern border zones. Even where projects are far from conflict areas, contractors are pricing in higher contingency for logistics and insurance. Iraq must also balance deep economic ties with Iran—particularly in energy—with Western investor expectations and sanctions-related compliance.
With more than 60% of its population under 25, Iraq has a potential demographic dividend, but it also faces immediate employment pressure and a shortage of skilled technical labour. Iraq’s projects market outlook for 2026 is best described as cautiously constructive. The pipeline is deep and the need is undeniable, but delivery will hinge on whether Iraq can translate plans into predictable execution. If progress on procurement and contract enforcement continues, Iraq can sustain a broad-based market that extends beyond hydrocarbons.
Click here to learn more about MEED’s newly updated Iraq Projects Market report
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Retal to develop project in Oman’s Sultan Haitham City
11 May 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Retal Urban Development Company has entered Oman with its first development agreement, signing a deal to build more than 2,000 residential units in Sultan Haitham City in Muscat.
In a statement to the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) on 11 May, the company said it had signed an agreement with Oman’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning to develop an integrated residential community at an estimated cost of SR3bn ($823m).
The community will be developed across zones 3, 15 and 17 within Sultan Haitham City, covering a total area of 1.3 million square metres.
The project will include villas and apartments, alongside commercial and mixed-use elements and community facilities.
Retal said the development will be delivered through an off-plan sales model and is expected to take nearly nine years to complete.
The first phase of the Sultan Haitham City project includes the development of a 5 square-kilometre city centre and six of the development’s 19 planned neighbourhoods. The first phase is set for completion by 2030.
US-based architectural firm SOM unveiled masterplan proposals for Sultan Haitham City in August 2024.
The final phase of the project is expected to be completed by 2045.
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Qiddiya seeks firms for light rail transit system
11 May 2026
Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has requested contractors to express interest in a contract to design and build the first phase of the light rail transit system at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The notice was issued on 5 May, with firms given until 20 June to submit expressions of interest.
The project, also known as the Primary Urban Axis, comprises a 22-kilometre automated, driverless rail line as part of its first phase.
The contract scope includes about 16 stations – 11 elevated and five underground – along with 8km of tunnels, viaducts and other associated structures. It covers all civil, architectural, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing works.
Stations will be located at Resort Core East Village, Grand Central Station, Anime Hub Integrated Station and Primary Urban Axis 1 & 2 Hub Station.
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QIC is accelerating plans to develop additional assets at Qiddiya City.
Separately, QIC, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh. This follows submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package on 16 April, as previously reported by MEED.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at up to 250 kilometres per hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
Contractors are also preparing bids for a 13 May deadline for a contract covering new infrastructure works at Qiddiya Entertainment City. The scope includes two infrastructure development packages for District 0, including the construction of four event park-and-ride facilities.
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QIC officially opened the Six Flags theme park to the public in December last year.
The park covers 320,000 square metres and features 28 rides and attractions, including 10 thrill rides and 18 aimed at families and young children.
The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom.
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RCRC awards $1bn Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road contract
11 May 2026
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Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract for the construction of the Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project in Riyadh.
The contract was awarded to the joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC) and Turkiye’s IC Ictas.
The project stretches 12 kilometres (km) from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road in Riyadh.
The Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project is a key component of the Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.
The project includes the construction of five interchanges: Prince Bandar interchange, King Abdullah interchange, Imam Abdullah interchange, Dammam Road interchange and Al-Thumama interchange.
The latest contract marks another significant project award to the RTCC-IC Ictas joint venture by RCRC.
In June 2024, RCRC awarded an estimated SR4bn ($1bn) design-and-build contract to upgrade the Wadi Laban cable bridge in Riyadh to the joint venture of RTCC and IC Ictas.
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The construction of the bridge originally began in August 1993 and was completed in 1997.
The existing bridge is 763 metres long and 35 metres wide, with two 14-metre-wide carriageways.
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The RCRC’s major projects include Riyadh Metro, Riyadh Art, Sports Boulevard, King Salman International Park, Green Riyadh and several road development projects in the capital.
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Aecom to supervise Dubai Loop construction
11 May 2026
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US-based Aecom has been selected for a contract to undertake design review and construction supervision services for the Dubai Loop transportation system.
The contract was tendered by Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA), which signed a construction agreement with Elon Musk-backed firm The Boring Company.
The first phase comprises a 6.4-kilometre route with four stations, linking the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) and Dubai Mall.
Stations will be located at DIFC 2, ICD Brookfield Place, Dubai Mall Zabeel Parking and Burj Khalifa.
The first phase is expected to cost about AED565m ($154m) and be delivered within one year of design work and other preparations being completed. Tunnelling is expected to begin in the second half of this year.
The latest update follows the appointment of Parsons Corporation to deliver programme management services for the Dubai Loop transportation system.
Next phase
The second phase will connect the Dubai World Trade Centre and DIFC with Business Bay.
The tunnels will extend up to 22km and include 19 stations.
The total cost across both phases is expected to be around AED2bn ($545m), with completion scheduled within three years.
The pilot route is expected to serve around 13,000 passengers a day, while the full route is projected to have a capacity of about 30,000 passengers a day.
The RTA and The Boring Company signed a memorandum of understanding on the sidelines of the World Governments Summit in Dubai in February last year to explore the development of the Dubai Loop transportation system.
The Dubai Loop is expected to be similar to The Boring Company’s Las Vegas Convention Centre (LVCC) Loop project. The LVCC Loop is a 2.7km underground tunnel system that connects different convention centre halls, reducing walking time across the site to about two minutes.
The LVCC Loop has been in operation since 2021. It uses Tesla Model 3 cars to carry passengers between five stations. The Boring Company began construction in November 2019 at an estimated cost of $49m.
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