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A leap into the unknown

13 December 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

In January 2024, reasonable observers could see that the big event of the year to come would be America’s presidential poll, which Donald Trump might win. It was likely the Gaza war would continue and could spread to other parts of the Middle East. And the start of attempts to end the conflict in Ukraine were predictable.

And so it has come to pass.

Unforeseen was the speed of the collapse of Syria’s Baath regime in December. But history is largely made up of the unexpected, though events in Damascus were surprising rather than a shock.

Forecasting developments in 2025 is harder. First, there is Trump’s foreign policy. Will he pursue an ‘America first’ agenda, or will he continue the international interventionism that has been the American way for more than 80 years? 

There is a global unease at the start of 2025

Trump’s proposed cabinet suggests he may abandon Washington’s effort to conciliate Middle East foes and let might rather than right rule in the region. 

Allowing Israel to annex all or part of both Gaza and the West Bank is unthinkable, but no longer impossible. 

Trump says he wants to stay out of Syria, but America is already there in the form of 900 troops in the northwest. And then there is Iran, which Trump says he plans to target.

The imponderables go beyond the Middle East. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs in excess of 60% on Chinese imports. That is war by other means. He says he wants a deal in Ukraine, but will Moscow accept the terms that Washington might offer?

Global perspective

The world economic outlook seems more predictable. Growth will continue, but perhaps at a lower rate. World equity markets are at all-time highs and no one is forecasting a crash. 

The oil price will weaken, though no disaster is looming for petroleum exporters.

Nonetheless, there is a global unease at the start of 2025 that centres on the uncertainties surrounding the tenant returning to the White House – and the disintegrating effectiveness of the supranational institutions that America helped to create following the Second World War. 

The credibility of the UN has never been lower – and it has been dealt a further blow by events in Syria, where force has superseded diplomacy yet again in the Middle East.

There was a time when we could bank on American statecraft, combined with the work of the UN and its affiliates, when the world went wrong. But the future looks different. 

We have entered the unknown and may get lost. And it might be impossible to find our way back.

Connect with Edmund O’Sullivan on X

More from Edmund O’Sullivan:

> Middle East faces a reckoning
> Biden leaves a mixed legacy
> Desperate days drag on
> The beginning of the end
> The death of political risk
> Italy at centre of new reduced Europe
> US foreign policy approach remains adrift
> Rainmaking in the world economy
> New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy
> Syria’s long march in from the cold

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Edmund O’Sullivan

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