A case study in procurement
18 March 2025

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While it may not be in the headlines as much as some of its more eye-catching official gigaproject counterparts, Roshn has already delivered thousands of residential units in Saudi Arabia as it seeks to fill the upscale and community living housing map.
Launched in 2020, the Roshn gigaproject is a component of the Vision 2030 plan to achieve 70% home ownership among Saudi nationals by 2030. Alongside the National Housing Company, it is the delivery vehicle for government-backed housing construction as Riyadh seeks to meet the shortfall in available stock.
Its first project was its Sedra community in the north of the capital. Currently on its fourth of eight delivery phases, the multibillion-dollar masterplanned development will comprise 30,000 homes over 20 million square metres (sq m) when completed.
Roshn’s second Riyadh community under construction is Warefa in the northeast of the capital. More compact than Sedra, it will have 2,300 units over an area of 1.4 square kilometres, with 150,000 sq m of green open space.
Three years after the launch of its first projects, Roshn announced Marafy, its first scheme in Jeddah and its largest mixed-use development to date. Designed to accommodate more than 130,000 residents, Marafy will be built around an 11-kilometre, 100-metre-wide canal, linking with Obhur Creek in the northern outskirts of the kingdom’s second city.
Already breaking ground, Marafy’s first core component is the Alarous residential community, which will offer 18,000 units over a 4 million sq m land area.
Elsewhere in the kingdom, Roshn’s other planned community projects include Almanar in Mecca, Alfulwa in Hofuf and Aldanah in Dhahran. Between them, these schemes total more than 50,000 units. It is expected that thousands of additional homes in other parts of the kingdom will be announced by the developer in the next two years.
Delivering such projects at many different locations is a complex exercise, requiring procurement strategies that not only encompass on-time and on-budget completion, but also ensure that local content is maximised while at the same time maintaining stringent quality standards.
Tasked with handling Roshn’s overall procurement strategy is Iain McBride, the gigaproject developer’s head of commercial.
It is expected that thousands of additional homes in other parts of the kingdom will be announced by the developer in the next two years
Like other gigaprojects in the kingdom, McBride and his procurement team have had to deal with the twin challenges of soaring cost inflation and maximising local content in materials and equipment.
The five official gigaprojects – Diriyah, Neom, the Red Sea Project, Qiddiya and Roshn – are free to employ their own procurement rules and processes, and each has taken a different approach to address its specific requirements. For example, Red Sea Global uses a construction management approach wherein it contracts directly with companies and suppliers that would normally work as subcontractors under the main contractors.
Similarly, Diriyah Company employs a strategy of bundling several smaller contract packages into a single large contract, as a means of consolidating work to ensure lower costs and maintain contractor interest.
Hear directly from the gigaproject owners at the biggest construction event – The Saudi Gigaprojects 2025 Summit, happening in Riyadh from 12-14 May 2025. Click here to know more
Demand signalling
The nature of Roshn’s mainly residential projects means that from the outset it knew it would need thousands of items with similar specifications, such as doors; glass panes; sanitaryware; and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems.
To secure this supply chain, early on the company identified local manufacturers of these products and reached long-term agreements with them for the delivery of required materials.
“Our first step was signing a lot of long-term partnership agreements through master purchase agreements where we could leverage preferential rates,” says McBride, speaking to MEED in late January.
“Ultimately, it's all about balance and risk – derisking the opportunities for the supply chain by telling them how many doors, for example, we're going to need each quarter for the next five to 10 years. It gives confidence to the manufacturers that they can start committing to.”
Roshn was the first of the gigaprojects to publicly signal its demand requirements. In 2021, it announced that it would require at least 5 million doors, 3.5 million air-conditioning units, 4.3 million windows, 80 million sq m of tiles and 6.5 million pieces of sanitaryware. These numbers have since changed, but they are indicative of the scale of the supply chain challenge.
Armed with the knowledge that Roshn is both supported by its parent, sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF), and that it is a central element of Saudi Vision 2030, local manufacturers had the confidence to commit to investing in production capacity to meet its needs.
Significantly, most of these deals have been with manufacturers within the kingdom, thereby maximising the local content aspects. Just as importantly, Roshn has not had to make any fixed orders – so-called ‘take-or-pay agreements’ – with suppliers, such is the latter’s faith in the developer.
“For the time being, we’ve not had to make any firm commitments,” says McBride. “We did look at it at one point, but our approach has always been to keep it as simple as possible by listening to the supply chain and seeing what they need. When we were speaking to them, it wasn’t their number one driver; they weren’t screaming at us saying, ‘We need you to give us a firm order’.
“Now, many people think a take-or-pay agreement is essential – where you commit to ordering [a certain quantity] of materials over a period of months or years and, if you don’t, you have to pay a penalty, thereby adding risk and complexity for the developer.
“What we were able to agree instead was that we'll be open and transparent with [the suppliers about] what we need. We said to ourselves, ‘Let's get a good price that works, whether we buy directly from the supplier or whether we include that supplier within our tenders with major contractors’. And we’ve seen great success with that approach, with multiple companies.”
The localisation push is supported by the design process. Wherever possible, the designs for Roshn’s projects incorporate and specify equipment and materials that are known to be manufactured locally.
There have been instances where specific, specialised materials and products are not produced in the kingdom, or not in the quantities required, such as marble and certain architectural facades.
Where this is the case, Roshn is keen to explore how it can help to build in-kingdom capacity. The developer has initiatives through which it looks to co-invest in production facilities that come with high capital requirements.
As McBride explains, Roshn is only one part of the huge and rapidly accelerating Saudi projects market ecosystem, and in helping to increase capacity, it is also putting itself in a position to help other developers with their supply chain needs.
A case in point is Roshn’s contract with China Harbour Engineering Company, which was awarded the $2bn deal in 2023 to build villas at Sedra and Warefa.
Part of the contract requires the Chinese contractor to set up a precast manufacturing facility on site at Sedra. In this way, Roshn could not only ringfence the plant for its own needs, but when it no longer requires the output, other projects could benefit from its production capacity.
“The factory has a 15-year lifespan, so any additional capacity will be there for another 10 years after our requirements are met,” says McBride. “In Riyadh, we have Expo 2030, the new airport, the stadiums and many other projects that could draw on its output.”
There are some situations where even this is not enough, particularly when it comes to contracting expertise. One such case is Roshn’s mandate to develop a 45,000-seat stadium in the southwest of Riyadh as part of the kingdom’s Fifa World Cup 2034 plans. On such a complex, highly engineered project, Roshn has insisted that an international contractor teams up with a local company as a condition of tender participation.
This insistence is based on Roshn’s experience overseeing the construction of a football stadium in Dammam alongside co-developer, Saudi Aramco. The project, which is being built by a joint venture of Belgium’s Besix and the local Albawani, is proceeding at a rapid pace and progress has been relatively trouble-free.
McBride says: “If we have to go abroad, let’s go abroad. But make sure it’s done in a smart way and that we’re not just throwing money out of the kingdom.”
Early contractor involvement
On the issue of contracting, it is well known that the massive amount of work in Saudi Arabia is stretching contractors to the limit, pushing up prices and straining labour, engineering and equipment resources.
Roshn’s approach to this challenge has been to engage with contractors at the earliest possible stage of project planning, specifically at the design phase, through an early contractor involvement (ECI) procurement framework. In this way, the company is able to obtain contractor feedback during concept and design and subsequently lower construction risk by improving a project’s constructability.
“It's about signposting the demand by getting the contractor in early, where you can really influence the design, the buildability and the value-engineering opportunities,” says McBride. “Ideally, we bring them in as quickly as possible during the concept stages, when there's very little cost to changing things.
“The worst thing for a contractor is receiving a [request for proposal] cold. They have to … come back in four weeks and then be squeezed for a best price, whereas with ECI they can add value. They really appreciate that.”
When asked to quantify the cost benefits of such an approach, McBride is forthright: “It’s not even a case of doing the maths,” he says. “We have a great example of where it’s worked on our Aldanah project in Dammam. We selected the contract very early on and locked in the floor plans and facades that we wanted. We were then able to deliver a street of 10 show homes [that took] not much more than four months to design and construct.
“The saving, in terms of time, was massive; we probably halved the duration. I probably wouldn’t be exaggerating if I said it saved about a year.
“There are two ways you can follow your engineer,” he continues. “One: you can follow them early and make sure that the way you're looking to save costs is in areas that are not impacting the customer.
“Or two: the worst thing you can do is get to the end and you have a full structural design that could be over-engineered and you’re spending money in the wrong places.
“We don’t want to get to a point where we're trying to value-engineer by cutting things out that are important to customers,” McBride explains. “And that's what you avoid by having this early contractor involvement.”
The company is able to obtain contractor feedback during concept and design and subsequently lower construction risk by improving a project’s constructability
Unlike the other gigaprojects, Roshn has been in the favourable position of being able to raise some revenue by marketing and selling its properties off plan. While this has been beneficial from a development perspective, it has also meant that the developer must get its pricing and housing specifications right if it is to develop homes within an already-defined budget.
Having a contracting partner on board during the design and specification stage facilitates the conversation between the property sales team, which is informing on market requirements, and the builder, who can deliver within the designed cost and quality parameters.
This is in contrast to many real estate developments for which sales are completed before the construction estimates come in, potentially undermining the business case.
The step beyond ECI is for contractors and suppliers to partner with Roshn to inject equity into the projects by acting as co-developers. McBride points to several planned mid-rise towers at Marafy that could be a starting point for this.
Contractors financing projects or bringing in replacement equity has long been an ambition in the region, but builders have been reluctant to adopt this approach. Nonetheless, McBride is confident that it could happen, indicating that there has already been strong interest from the contracting community.
Cost inflation
Another major talking point in Saudi construction is the escalating costs caused by high inflation, logistical challenges and a tightening of contracting and skilled labour capacity.
In many cases, this has required the rescoping of projects, revisions to timelines and even the scrapping of elements. Neom is arguably the best example of this, as it has reprioritised The Line and is facing an estimated cost of $50bn for building each of its first three modules – far in excess of original estimates.
Roshn’s approach to the challenge is to be as open and transparent as possible with the contractor and supplier community. This has involved outlining a long-term pipeline of work that gives the supply chain confidence about its requirements, enabling them to fix in long-term pricing structures. In return, the developer expects prices to come in competitively.
“It’s no secret within the supply chain market that Roshn has quite aggressive price points,” says McBride, a former chartered surveyor who, prior to joining Roshn, worked as a quantity surveyor and cost-management director at consultants Faithful+Gould (now AtkinsRealis) and Rider Levett Bucknall.
“What we're trying to do is engage early, build trust with the contractors, let them see we’re a good client that's going to pay and have honest and fair contracting terms, and work together to try and solve issues post-contract.
“We don't mind if there's inflationary pressures because of commodity prices increasing. But what we're trying to avoid is inflationary prices through just the demand increasing.
“An innovative way that we've implemented this even on our lump-sum contracts – our traditional Redbook or older contracts – is that we have preferred supplier agreement clauses in them,” he adds.
“So, rather than a traditional bill of quantities (BoQ) that has a rate, a quantity, a total, within our rate section we have the material supply rate, the installation rate and then everything else, such as overhead profit. We protect the installation rate, so it's not a percentage of the material; it's a fixed SR100 a square metre to install, for example.
“One of the big frustrations for contractors is [that the supplier has] a material we think they're going to deliver. It's maybe not available, so they submit alternative materials. The client keeps rejecting it – it's not what they want – and it becomes a delay; it's painful.”
McBride gives the example of a pre-approved bathroom sink. Thanks to Roshn’s relationships with key long-term suppliers, the company is able to negotiate better rates for sanitaryware than would be available to a contractor on an ad hoc basis. If the developer’s rates for sinks are better than the BoQ, it splits the savings 50:50 with the contractor.
“The contractors are winning out of that exercise, we're winning out of it and, ultimately, the customers are winning out of it as well, because we’re passing on those savings,” says McBride.
Flexibility
The benefits to contractors and suppliers extend to payment terms. In today’s sellers’ market, vendors are effectively able to pick and choose the clients they want to work for. As a result, clients – including the gigaprojects – have had to introduce more flexible payment terms and develop market reputations for paying on time.
Roshn may lead the pack on this, with an average payment time from invoice to payment of just 13 days in 2024. A decade ago, this would have been unheard of, but it is now increasingly becoming the norm among the gigaprojects.
In addition, like its PIF peers, Roshn has done away with tender fees and tender bonds, viewing them as outdated means of enforcing vendor participation, especially given the tight liquidity and cashflow situation in the projects market in Saudi Arabia.
Will such flexibility ever extend to performance bonds? McBride is sceptical, pointing to the fact that Roshn’s strong relationship with local banks allows to it facilitate credit agreements between contractors and their lenders. Being a gigaproject developer supported by the PIF – and by tacit extension the state – also helps provide the underlining ease of mind for financers.
Nonetheless, Roshn also takes a proactive approach with advanced payments, enabling up to 20% of the total contract value at the initial stage of the project.
“We've been quite clever in how we do this,” says McBride. “We don't go and release 20% straight away. We’ll do 10% and then, when we’ve evidence that you’ve expended that 10% on mobilisation and site establishment, we’ll release the second 10% tranche.”
Subcontractors
One of the chief sticking points in the kingdom’s projects ecosystem in the past decade has been the capacity and capability of its subcontractors.
The payments crisis in 2017-20 forced many main and general contractors to reduce their permanent labour forces, plant and general resources. Wary of a repeat, most have retained their leaner structure and so have turned increasingly to subcontractors for their manpower and delivery requirements.
In theory, this makes sense, but in practice subcontractors in Saudi Arabia are themselves often overstretched in terms of both delivery capacity and labour availability. In turn, they frequently use their own subcontractors, which then also outsource, to the point that specific elements of a project may be completed by companies very far down the supply chain – with the quality issues that this implies.
Roshn’s solution is to ensure any subcontractor on site goes through a vetting process encompassing quality and financial checks, thereby ensuring it has full visibility on every company on site.
Increasingly, Roshn is dealing with suppliers directly, under supply-install contracts. This can create interfacing issues with the main contractors, however, which are ultimately responsible for the project’s delivery.
“We have to be quite careful on that,” McBride says. “We have to go through all the checks and balances during the prequalification process because if we are going to give a subcontractor to a contractor that we're saying is pre-vetted by Roshn, we could be opening the door to lots of claims from the main contractor against us. So, vetting for us is absolutely crucial.”
Roshn is also working with smaller suppliers and subcontractors to help them evolve and grow, so that they can start taking on smaller main contractor roles themselves.
“Not every construction package we award is in the billions of riyals,” says McBride. “Our thinking is to let the big tier-one contractors focus on the multibillion-riyal deals while we encourage the smaller ones to grow as part of our supplier development programme.”
To achieve this, the developer holds events and bootcamps with its vendors to discuss best practices on subjects including health and safety, variation procedures and how to submit good tender returns.
Roshn is also working with smaller suppliers and subcontractors to help them evolve and grow
Building information modelling
Vendor education also extends to the use of building information modelling (BIM) and other construction technologies.
BIM is mandatory on Roshn’s projects, as it is on the other gigaprojects. While use of the technology is standard across almost all main contractors in the region, its take-up among smaller companies in the supply chain has been slower, with firms pointing to the cost of its adoption and integration as a barrier, as well as the fact that some clients, particularly government ones, view it as providing limited benefit.
Roshn’s task in this area is made difficult because its projects are less complex from an engineering and construction perspective.
“We’re building villas; it’s completely different to building stadiums or airports,” McBride says. “Can these contractors build from [two-dimensional] drawings? Yes, of course they can. You're not going to convince a smaller contractor that all of these benefits will make it easier to build because they know how to build. They've been doing it for decades.
“But the savings are in making it easier to procure, savings in the repeatability, and in the change control. If you upskill yourself on a Roshn project, you are building your capability, which you can then [demonstrate] to other clients as proof you can go after bigger and more complex projects. It's something that the whole industry has to get behind.”
Indeed, there is much to learn from Roshn’s approach to delivering its infrastructure and building plans. While the comparatively straightforward nature of its projects means that its procurement strategies may not be suited to those gigaprojects with more iconic designs, for many other developers it is a case study in efficient processes that have proven effective in delivering work on time and to budget.
This is just as well given that Roshn is set to embark on the next stage of its journey, with its focus on the more complex Marafy city development in Jeddah and Roshn Stadium in Riyadh. However, the evidence suggests that from a procurement strategy perspective, it is well-positioned to also make this a success.
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Levant recovers in three speeds29 June 2026
Commentary
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EditorThe Levant enters the second half of 2026 in a state of uneven recovery. Jordan, Lebanon and Syria are each navigating distinct pressures, but share a common condition: the pace of improvement is being set less by domestic policy than by the willingness of external actors to commit capital and the capacity of local systems to absorb it.
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Jordan’s position is more stable but equally constrained. Prime Minister Jafar Hassan has held the fiscal line since his appointment in September 2024, narrowing the deficit from 7.3% of GDP to a projected 5.4% in 2026 under the IMF programme. The $2.3bn Aqaba Port Railway, backed by the UAE, and the $5.8bn National Water Carrier project together represent the largest foreign investment in the kingdom’s history, according to Hassan.
But growth is projected at just 2.7% through 2026, well short of what the Economic Modernisation Vision requires, and structural reforms to the labour market have stalled.
Lebanon, meanwhile, continues to mark time. Political leadership is in place and Block 8 offshore has attracted TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy, but the country produces virtually no hydrocarbons and its broader economic recovery remains fragile as the threat of conflict persists.

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Last year’s total was the weakest in the post-pandemic period, suggesting that the awards now coming through may partly reflect delayed commitments that were held back during a period of elevated construction cost inflation before being released into the market as conditions stabilised.

Future pipeline
The near-term outlook for new project commitments is uncertain, with developers and investors watching the conflict’s trajectory and its effect on visitor demand before finalising capital allocation. While there is caution, governments have signalled a firm commitment to their tourism ambitions.
The clearest signal came in late May, when Alec Engineering & Contracting received a letter of award for the construction of the Sphere Abu Dhabi, a $1.7bn immersive entertainment venue to be built on Yas Island. That Abu Dhabi was prepared to formalise a contract of this scale during an active regional conflict carries its own significance: sovereign-backed tourism infrastructure programmes are not being paused.
In Dubai, another major contract award is approaching. Dubai Holding is preparing to appoint a contractor for the Jumeirah Asora Bay Hotel in the La Mer area, developed alongside the Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay in partnership with Meraas. The proximity of the contract award to the conflict period indicates the same institutional logic: Dubai’s long-term tourism infrastructure programme continues to advance on its own timeline, independent of near-term demand conditions.
Upgrade cycle
If governments are pressing ahead with new tourism infrastructure, operators of existing properties are turning the reduced footfall to their own advantage. A wave of hotel refurbishments has gained pace in Dubai in recent months, with several properties having closed or partially closed for renovation work that, in many cases, had been planned well before the conflict began. The reduction in visitor numbers has created an opportune window to carry out disruptive works without sacrificing commercial performance.
The most prominent examples are the Jumeirah Burj Al-Arab, which has closed for an 18-month restoration programme, and the Armani Hotel Dubai, which occupies floors within the Burj Khalifa and has also closed for a full overhaul, with a planned reopening in the last quarter of 2026.
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AD Ports and EGA commit $23m to upgrade Khalifa port berth29 June 2026
Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) have signed an agreement to upgrade EGA’s dedicated berth at Khalifa Port in the UAE capital.
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EGA is jointly owned by the governments of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
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Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery29 June 2026

> This package also includes: GCC presses ahead with tourism projects
Dubai’s tourism sector was in a position of strength when the regional conflict began on 28 February.
Full-year figures published by the Dubai Department of Economy & Tourism (DET) in February confirmed that the emirate welcomed 19.59 million international overnight visitors in 2025, a 5% increase on the 18.72 million recorded in 2024, and a third consecutive year of record-setting arrivals. The city received more than 2 million visitors in a single calendar month when December 2025 closed with 2.04 million arrivals, 6% ahead of the same period in 2024.
Average hotel occupancy in Dubai’s 827 properties reached 80.7% in 2025, up from 78.2% in 2024. Revenue per available room rose 11% year-on-year to AED467 ($127), while the average daily rate increased 8% to AED579 ($158).
By the end of December, the city’s hotel room inventory stood at 154,264, ahead of cities including Bangkok, New York, Paris and Singapore.
Western Europe remained the largest source market, contributing 4.1 million arrivals and accounting for 21% of total visitors, while the GCC and Middle East and North Africa regions together represented 26% , with 2.99 million and 2.17 million arrivals, respectively. South Asia, the CIS and Eastern Europe each contributed 2.89 million visitors.
The regional context was similarly buoyant. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council’s (WTTC) 2026 Economic Impact Research, Middle East travel and tourism GDP expanded 5.3% in 2025, outpacing the global sector average of 4.1%.
The UAE’s travel and tourism sector reached $68.5bn in GDP contribution in 2025, with international visitor spending of $56.9bn. Pre-conflict, WTTC had forecast $207bn in international visitor spending across the Middle East for 2026.
Sudden shock
The outbreak of conflict on 28 February produced a swift and serious impact across the regional tourism ecosystem. Within days, the WTTC estimated losses of at least $600m a day in international visitor spending across the Middle East, as air travel was disrupted, traveller confidence weakened and regional connectivity fractured.
The major Gulf aviation hubs including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Bahrain, which together process about 526,000 passengers daily, experienced closures and operational disruption. On the day the conflict began, the EU Aviation Safety Agency issued a bulletin on the dangers of flying in the airspace of 11 countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait.
The data for the first quarter of 2026 reflects the scale of the disruption. According to UN Tourism’s latest World Tourism Barometer, international arrivals across the Middle East fell 14% in the first quarter of 2026, with hotel occupancy in the region declining sharply to 48% in March from 75% in January, against a global average of 64%.
International air traffic among Middle Eastern carriers fell 61% in March, measured in revenue passenger-kilometres, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata), dragging overall global international traffic into modest contraction for the month.
The conflict also introduced structural complications that extended beyond the immediate decline in arrivals. Several major source markets, including the UK, issued advisories against all but essential travel to the UAE. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) guidance cited the risk of renewed strikes on civilian infrastructure, including ports, hotels, roads and airports, and advised residents to consider departing if their presence was not essential.
The divergence from Dubai’s own official position, which characterised the emirate as stable and operationally normal, created a coverage gap that complicated conventional travel insurance provision and suppressed bookings from key markets.
On 18 June, the UK updated its position, removing the advisory against all but essential travel to the UAE and noting that commercial flight routes to depart the region remain available. The change marks a significant shift in the formal risk landscape for one of Dubai’s most important source markets, removing a barrier that had complicated both insurance provision and leisure booking decisions across the UK market for nearly four months.
Emirates and Etihad Airways both moved to address the insurance gap directly ahead of the FCDO change. On 17 June, Emirates launched a comprehensive travel cover product developed in partnership with insurance provider Travel Guard, offering medical cover for conflict-related incidents, trip cancellation cover, compensation for baggage delay or loss, and unlimited medical expense and emergency evacuation cover worldwide. The product is available across 27 markets.
Emirates also committed to rebooking disrupted customers at no additional cost where flights have been cancelled due to conflict-related disruption, including itineraries connecting on other carriers.

Arrivals data
Data from UK-based analytics firm GlobalData illustrates both the scale of the expected contraction and the strength of the projected recovery. UAE international arrivals, which reached approximately 30 million in 2025, are forecast to fall to about 26.4 million in 2026 – a decline of roughly 12% – before rebounding sharply to 32.1 million in 2027.
GlobalData’s projections then show continued growth to about 33.5 million in 2028, 35.1 million in 2029 and 36.6 million by 2030.
On that trajectory, arrivals would exceed pre-conflict levels within a single year of recovery and surpass 2025 figures by more than 7% in 2027 alone.
The GlobalData numbers place the 2026 contraction in a longer historical context. UAE arrivals grew almost uninterrupted from 8.4 million in 2009 to 25.6 million in 2019, before collapsing to 8.4 million in 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsequent recovery was among the fastest recorded for any major destination: arrivals reached 22 million in 2022, crossed 26.3 million in 2023 and climbed to 28.7 million in 2024 before the 2025 peak.
That precedent – a two-thirds collapse followed by full recovery within three years – underpins the confidence embedded in GlobalData’s post-conflict forecast, which projects a return to growth momentum by 2027 and a trajectory that would deliver 36.6 million arrivals by 2030.
The near-term contraction nevertheless remains substantial. A decline from approximately 30 million to 26.4 million in a single year represents the sharpest drop in UAE arrivals outside the pandemic, and it comes at a point when the sector had been tracking well ahead of pre-pandemic levels.
Past experience
Historical precedent from comparable disruptions points to a consistent pattern: recovery shape is determined less by the severity of the initial decline than by the duration of the disrupting event and the speed at which the perception of the source market resets.
Single-event incidents with clear endpoints and no sustained security overhang have historically produced the fastest recoveries, with arrivals returning to trend within 12 months. Sustained conflicts or events that trigger prolonged travel advisory regimes produce more extended recovery arcs, with source market confidence rather than operational conditions defining the timeline.
The Egypt Metrojet bombing in 2015 remains the most instructive cautionary example for the Gulf: Russian airspace restrictions imposed after the incident kept a major source market out of the Egyptian market for more than five years, with arrivals recovery lagging the resolution of the underlying security concern by a significant margin.
The UAE’s own Covid recovery offers a relevant local reference point. The GlobalData numbers show arrivals collapsed from 25.6 million in 2019 to 8.4 million in 2020, before recovering to 21.9 million in 2022 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The post-conflict recovery forecast of a bounce back to above 2025 levels by 2027 is less aggressive than the post-Covid rebound, reflecting both the more moderate scale of the 2026 contraction and the more complex advisory and perception dynamics involved in a conflict resolution scenario.
The DET’s response is structured around three priorities: operational continuity, sector support and market confidence. The government announced a AED2.5bn ($612.7m) support package targeting the tourism, hospitality and entertainment sectors, structured to protect business continuity, preserve employment and maintain visitor experience standards. Dubai is doing all it can, but much depends on how quickly perceptions shift.
Pilgrimages drive Saudi tourism
More than 1.7 million pilgrims performed Hajj in 2026, according to official data published by Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Statistics, underscoring the continued centrality of religious tourism to the kingdom’s visitor economy.
The total of 1,707,301 pilgrims comprised 1,546,655 from outside the kingdom and 160,646 internal pilgrims, which includes Saudi citizens and residents.
The vast majority of international pilgrims arrived by air, with 1,485,729 using this mode of transport. A further 54,429 arrived overland and 6,497 by sea. Pilgrims represented 165 nationalities, reflecting the global reach of the event.
The scale of the logistical operation accompanying Hajj is equally significant. Supporting the pilgrimage required 441,049 workers and 26,701 volunteers. Saudi Arabia’s pre-clearance programme, which processes travel documentation at the point of departure to streamline entry to the kingdom for participants from select countries, was used by 388,694 pilgrims.
Hajj is a structural pillar of Saudi religious tourism, which alongside Umrah, draws tens of millions of visitors to Mecca and Medina each year. The sector sits at the core of Vision 2030’s tourism diversification strategy, which targets 150 million visits a year by the end of the decade.
Continued investment in transport infrastructure, including the expanded King Abdulaziz International airport and Haramain high-speed railway capacity, will help Riyadh achieve this target.
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