meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy

11 April 2024

The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:

> Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
> UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
> UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
> Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
> Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
> UAE marks successful power project deliveries

 

Economic activity in the UAE appears to be holding up relatively well amid the regional turmoil sparked by the start of the Gaza war in November.

Abu Dhabi recorded GDP growth of 3.1% in 2023, according to full-year estimates released by the Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi on 1 April. That marks a substantial drop from the 9.3% level seen in 2022, but an improvement on the 2.3% growth over the first nine months of 2023.

Despite falling oil prices and the disruption to Red Sea shipping in the final quarter, there have been ongoing positive signs for the non-oil sector, which now accounts for around 53% of the total economy. Non-oil activity grew by 9.1% in 2023, down only slightly from the 9.2% level recorded a year earlier.

That non-oil activity is likely to continue to be a key element for economic growth for as long as the UAE and its partners in the Opec+ alliance maintain their voluntary restrictions on crude production. There is no clear timeline for when that policy might change, but David Pickett, assistant economist at Oxford Economics, said he anticipated “a significant increase in oil production from 2026, aided by new facilities and subsiding geopolitical uncertainty”.

In the meantime, the Central Bank of the UAE has adjusted its growth expectations for this year, cutting its forecast for 2024 from the previous 5.7% to 4.2% while predicting a rebound to 5.2% the following year—figures that are higher than many independent observers’ expectations.

Trade and investment

A wave of free trade deals is helping the country’s economic prospects. To date, the UAE has signed comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs) with 12 countries, the most recent being with Kenya in late February. Another is due to be finalised with Malaysia by June.

Deals with India, Indonesia, Israel, Turkey and Cambodia have already come into effect, while others with Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Korea and the Republic of Congo are all in line to follow. Trade talks are ongoing with numerous other countries, including Australia, Chile, the Philippines and Vietnam.

However, the rapid pace of negotiations means it is not yet clear what impact these deals are having on trade flows.

“It is arguably too early to assess the economic impact of these trade agreements, with many coming into force less than 12 months ago and with full bilateral trade data for 2023 yet to be published,” said Jeanne Walters, senior economist at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, in a report published in early March.

Also helping the country’s position is its release in February from the strictures of the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force’s ‘grey list’ of jurisdictions under increased monitoring. The UAE authorities had been targeting this development for some time, and it should ease the path of economic growth for a country that relies heavily on international trade.

Minister of State Ahmed Bin Ali Al Sayegh set out the decision’s importance soon after the announcement, saying it “enhances investors’ and international financial institutions’ confidence in the country’s economy and financial system, especially considering the UAE’s status as a financial, commercial and economic hub”.

One measure of the country’s commercial reputation is its ability to attract investment. Despite increased competition from Saudi Arabia for international capital, a March report by Emirates NBD Research found that the UAE was second only to the US globally in terms of the number of greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) projects it attracted in 2023.

The number of UAE FDI projects for 2023 was recorded at 1,280, up 36% on the previous 12 months. Most of these were in Dubai, which attracted 1,036 projects – more than any other city in the world – while Abu Dhabi had 172 projects.

In an effort to continue to attract international capital, the government is now said to be looking at offering 10-year ‘golden licences’ to businesses. The topic was discussed at a meeting of the Economic Integration Committee, chaired by Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq, in late March.

Inclement geopolitics

Perhaps the biggest cloud on the horizon is the brutal Gaza war, which could yet have a larger economic and domestic political impact, not least because of the sensitivity around the UAE’s diplomatic relations with Israel.

Like other Gulf countries, the UAE has been sending a steady stream of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but those efforts received a setback on 2 April, when Israel attacked an aid convoy run by World Central Kitchen – a partner of the UAE and others in the Amalthea Initiative aimed at providing a maritime corridor for aid from Cyprus to Gaza.

The UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in which it “condemned in the strongest terms” the Israeli strike. Emirati officials were already understood to be considering ways to offer more protection to aid deliveries, and this will now be even higher up the agenda.

Even as relations have soured, there has been no indication that the country is considering altering its diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, forged under the Abraham Accords of September 2020.

Nevertheless, while there has been little outward sign of public discontent within the UAE over the conflict, officials around the Gulf are said to be increasingly wary of the potential for the war in Gaza to cause a popular backlash.

One lesson from the broader region in recent decades is that an economic downturn can encourage political discontent, too, but it is far easier to maintain public order in a prosperous economic environment. By that measure, the UAE should have little to fear, given its robust non-oil performance of late.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11662621/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Neom receives bids for schools PPP

    15 May 2024

     

    Saudi Arabian gigaprojects developer Neom has received bids for a contract to develop and operate two schools in the SR1.5tn ($500bn) development.

    According to a source close to the project, around a dozen local companies submitted proposals for the scheme in late April or early May.

    The project is being procured on a build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis.

    It is understood Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi Capital is the client's financial adviser for the project.

    Related read: PPP offers budget and efficiency routes

    Neom recently invited companies to bid for a contract to develop four hotels at Oxagon, the development's industrial cluster.

    Neom expects to receive bids for the contract in July. The hotels, understood to have a total of 1,200 keys, will also be developed using a BOOT model.

    Most of Saudi Arabia's gigaprojects have been shifting the physical and social infrastructure components of their developments, in addition to their utility infrastructures, to public-private partnership (PPP) models due to budgetary constraints and a need for a more efficient approach to procuring and operating these assets long term.

    MEED's April 2024 special report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > GVT & ECONOMY: Saudi Arabia seeks diversification amid regional tensions
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders gear up for corporate growth
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco spending drawdown to jolt oil projects
    > DOWNSTREAM: Master Gas System spending stimulates Saudi downstream sector
    > POWER: Riyadh to sustain power spending
    > WATER: Growth inevitable for the Saudi water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi gigaprojects propel construction sector
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi Arabia’s transport sector offers prospects

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11773702/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Ewec plans new independent water project

    15 May 2024

     

    Abu Dhabi-based offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) is considering procuring a new independent water project (IWP), according to industry sources.

    The planned seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) facility is expected to have a capacity of 90 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD), equivalent to about 409,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    Sources have told MEED that the proposed location is either in Al Nouf or Taweelah in Abu Dhabi.

    A facility in Al Nouf will require a long pipeline that will connect the plant to Abu Dhabi, and will likely involve the participation of the Abu Dhabi Transmission & Despatch Company (Transco), according to one of the sources.

    It is understood that Ewec could seek interest from developers for the new IWP by the end of the year. 

    This development follows the revision of the scope and capacity of Abu Dhabi's fourth IWP scheme, which is currently in the tendering stage.

    The Saadiyat Island IWP will have a capacity of 60 MIGD.

    When it was tendered in July 2023, the original scheme – called the Abu Dhabi Islands IWP – comprised two SWRO plants each with a capacity of 50 MIGD, to be located on the Saadiyat and Hudayriat islands in Abu Dhabi.

    The current tender closing date for the Saadiyat Island IWP project is 29 June.

    "They need this additional planned capacity [in Al Nouf or Taweelah] since the other scheme in Hudayriat has been cancelled," the source added.

    Ewec previously said these projects are important to Abu Dhabi’s water security due to their proximity to the load centre of the Abu Dhabi islands, as well as the scheduled decommissioning in 2028 of the integrated power and water desalination plant at Sas Nakhl.

    As in previously tendered IWPs, the successful developer or consortium will own up to 40% of a special-purpose vehicle that will implement these projects, while the remaining equity will be primarily held indirectly by the Abu Dhabi government.

    Awarded contracts 2023

    Ewec awarded the contracts for two IWPs last year. Ewec, Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and France’s Engie signed the water purchase agreement for the Mirfa 2 IWP project in February 2023. They reached financial close for the project, which will have a capacity of 120 MIGD, two months later.

    Taqa, Ewec and South Korea’s GS Inima reached financial close on the $444m Shuweihat 4 SWRO IWP in December. Located within the Shuweihat power and water complex, the facility will supply up to 70 MIGD of potable water. Commercial operations are expected to commence in the second quarter of 2026.

    MEED's April 2024 special report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: UAE rides high on non-oil boom
    > GVT & ECONOMY: Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
    > BANKING: UAE banks seize the moment
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc oil and gas project spending sees steep uptick
    > DOWNSTREAM: UAE builds its downstream and chemical sectors
    > POWER: UAE marks successful power project deliveries
    > WATER: Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
    > DUBAI CONSTRUCTION: Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
    > ABU DHABI CONSTRUCTION: Abu Dhabi makes major construction investments

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11772504/main2450.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Saudi Arabia expands PPP pipeline

    14 May 2024

     

    Register for MEED’s guest programme 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) has seen significant progress in its public-private partnership (PPP) programme in the past year, according to Salman Badr, vice-president of the state PPP procuring authority.

    Speaking at the MEED Mena Construction Summit in Riyadh, Badr said that NCP has a “healthy pipeline” of over 200 approved projects in different stages of development. 

    He noted that another 300 projects are currently under review.

    It is understood that the pipeline includes more than 180 schools, following the award of contracts to develop and operate 60 schools each in Jeddah and Medina in 2020 and 2022.

    “New sectors like healthcare and education have been opened up for public-private partnerships beyond the traditional water and power sectors,” said Badr.

    The kingdom is understood to have awarded more than 60 PPP contracts since 2017, when NCP was formed.

    Badr said private sector participation has “allowed the government to deliver infrastructure projects much more efficiently”. 

    Recently completed projects include the kingdom’s first hospital PPP project in Medina. 

    In addition to healthcare and school facilities, NCP’s pipeline includes airports, seaports and roads, catering to Saudi Arabia’s growing infrastructure needs as the population and economy expand.

    MEED’s April 2024 special report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > GVT & ECONOMY: Saudi Arabia seeks diversification amid regional tensions
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders gear up for corporate growth
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco spending drawdown to jolt oil projects
    > DOWNSTREAM: Master Gas System spending stimulates Saudi downstream sector
    > POWER: Riyadh to sustain power spending
    > WATER: Growth inevitable for the Saudi water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi gigaprojects propel construction sector
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi Arabia’s transport sector offers prospects

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11768175/main.jpg
    Sarah Rizvi
  • Rua Al Madinah seeks construction partners

    14 May 2024

    Register for MEED’s guest programme 

    Saudi Arabia’s Rua Al Madinah, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary tasked with Medina’s tourism and cultural development, has revealed that construction work is under way on the main tunnel that will take all incoming traffic towards the Harem area. 

    Extensive works are also ongoing to redevelop the airport road and modernise the city’s wider transportation network. 

    “There are significant opportunities for contractors and partners,” said Abdulsalem Alharbi, projects delivery director, Rua Al Madinah, at the MEED Giga Projects event in Riyadh on 13 May. 

    “We are looking for capable service providers and strategic partners to support the large-scale infrastructure and construction works.”

    Alharbi said five packages of residential towers – comprising over 120 towers in total – are currently in various stages of design and tender. 

    The superblock 5 package includes 18 towers and is already on the market, while superblock 4, involving 19 towers, is in the design phase.

    Packages District 9 and District 10, consisting of 35 towers and 46 towers, respectively, are seeking partners to take on development roles. 

    Alharbi also highlighted several investment opportunities being developed to support the growing tourism sector, including a central kitchen, cold storage warehouse, commercial laundry and staff accommodation facilities.

    “This represents a major chance for local and international companies to participate in the redevelopment of Medina,” he added.

    Project background

    Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud inaugurated the infrastructure works and unveiled the masterplan for the Rua Al Madinah development in August 2022.

    Before this, US-based Hill International was awarded a contract in 2021 for the project management of road works at the Madinah Central Area (MCA).

    In June 2022, a local media report cited China Railway 18th Bureau as having won a contract to build the Medina tunnel. 

    The tunnel, valued at $970m, was expected to be completed within 42 months. The work includes building the AH tunnel, the Ali Bin Abi Talib tunnel, the airport tunnel and related projects, including a pedestrian bridge.

    Rua Al Madinah Holding Company CEO Ahmed Al Juhani told MEED in February that construction work on the Ali Bin Abi Talib road has been completed, making it the first tunnel to be finished as part of the Rua Al Madinah project. 

    In February 2023, US-based Parsons won a $15m contract to provide construction project management consultancy and contract administration services (PMCM) for the project. The US consultancy firm will manage the main infrastructure works, including the tunnel, road and utility works.

    MEED’s April 2024 special report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > GVT & ECONOMY: Saudi Arabia seeks diversification amid regional tensions
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders gear up for corporate growth
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco spending drawdown to jolt oil projects
    > DOWNSTREAM: Master Gas System spending stimulates Saudi downstream sector
    > POWER: Riyadh to sustain power spending
    > WATER: Growth inevitable for the Saudi water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi gigaprojects propel construction sector
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi Arabia’s transport sector offers prospects

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11766934/main.jpg
    Sarah Rizvi
  • Emirates Group posts $5.1bn profit

    14 May 2024

    Emirates Group, comprising Emirates Airline and Dnata, has posted a record profit of AED18.7bn ($5.1bn) in its latest fiscal year ending 31 March, up 71% compared to a AED10.9bn profit for last year.

    The group’s revenue stood at AED137.3bn, an increase of 15% over last year’s results.

    Its cash balance was AED47.1bn, the highest ever reported and an 11% increase from last year.

    According to its annual report, the group's profits for the last two years reached AED29.6bn, which has surpassed pandemic losses of AED25.9bn in 2020-22.

    The group has declared a dividend of AED4bn to its owner, the Investment Corporation of Dubai.

    Emirates Group chairman and CEO, Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, attributed the company's record performance to Dubai’s progressive policies.

    He added that profits enable further investments in new aircraft, facilities and equipment, technology, products and services, and staff.

    Business performance

    Emirates reported a new record profit of AED17.2bn, up 63% from AED10.6bn last year.

    The airline's revenue rose 13% to AED121.2bn while capacity increased by 20% to 57.7 billion available tonne-kilometres.

    The group's cargo and logistics arm, Dnata, reported a profit of AED1.4bn, up more than four-fold compared to its AED331m profit last year.

    Revenue increased 29% to hit a new record high of AED19.2bn, reflecting increased customer flight activity and travel demand across its UAE and worldwide business divisions. 

    Investments and outlook

    In 2023-24, the group collectively invested AED8.8bn in new aircraft, facilities, equipment, companies and the latest technologies to support its growth plans.   

    In line with this, Emirates expects to receive delivery of 10 new A350 aircraft in 2024-25.

    The group’s total workforce grew by 10% to 112,406 employees, its largest ever.

    In terms of environment, social and governance (ESG) initiatives, in 2023-24, Emirates signed new supply agreements to uplift sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its Dubai hub for the first time, and also in Amsterdam and Singapore.

    The airline operated the first A380 demonstration flight using 100% SAF in one engine, collecting data to support industry efforts to enable a future of 100% SAF flying.

    The business outlook is positive and the group expects customer demand for air transport and travel to remain strong in the coming months.

    "As always, we will keep a close watch on costs and external factors such as oil prices, currency fluctuations and volatile environments caused by socio-political changes," said Sheikh Ahmed.

    "Our business model has been tested before, and I am confident in our resilience and ability to respond quickly to opportunities and challenges.”

    Sheikh Ahmed affirmed the Dubai government's plan to start the next phase of expansion at Al Maktoum International airport, which will eventually be the new hub for Emirates' and Dnata’s operations.

    "This AED128bn investment will significantly expand and enhance Dubai’s aviation and logistics infrastructure, supporting the city’s growth, and Emirates’ and Dnata’s growth," he added.

    MEED's April 2024 special report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: UAE rides high on non-oil boom
    > GVT & ECONOMY: Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
    > BANKING: UAE banks seize the moment
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc oil and gas project spending sees steep uptick
    > DOWNSTREAM: UAE builds its downstream and chemical sectors
    > POWER: UAE marks successful power project deliveries
    > WATER: Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
    > DUBAI CONSTRUCTION: Dubai real estate boosts construction sector
    > ABU DHABI CONSTRUCTION: Abu Dhabi makes major construction investments

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11766365/main13521409.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo