meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Instability drives up defence budgets

22 February 2024

At the World Defence Show in Riyadh on 4-8 February, SR26bn ($6.9bn) of contracts were finalised, including SR20bn agreed by the Saudi Defence Ministry. 

Perhaps the most prominent feature was the number of localisation deals that were struck between Saudi government entities and international weapons manufacturers, including US firms Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, France’s Thales and South Korea’s Kia.

The Saudi authorities still have a way to go to meet their ambition – set out in the Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy – to allocate half of all defence equipment spending within the kingdom by the end of the decade, but it is clearly a goal they continue to prioritise. 

“There is definitely that focus on bolstering investment within defence budgets,” said Fenella McGerty, senior fellow for defence economics at the London-based think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

“We are seeing a focus on R&D [research and development] particularly. It was far too low in this region. It needs to increase to about 4% of the defence budget – as it would be in Europe – and it was about 1%. Countries are moving towards implementing that change within defence spending.”

Increasing investment

McGerty was speaking at the launch of the latest IISS Military Balance report in mid-February. The report showed a further rise in Saudi defence spending in the past year. 

According to IISS data, Saudi Arabia’s defence outlay climbed 5.7% in 2023 to SR259bn ($69bn). This was lower than the 28% growth the year before, but is still among the fastest-growing military budgets in the wider region, and is far larger than the nearest competitors – the UAE, with an outlay of $20.7bn in 2023, and Israel with $19.2bn.

Overall, defence spending in the Middle East and North Africa region was up 9.5% in 2023, with Gulf countries accounting for just over 72% of the $183bn total – a figure that does not include Libya, the Palestinian territories, Sudan, Syria or Yemen, due to a lack of reliable information.

North African countries accounted for a 16.3% share of the total, with the Levant taking up the remaining 11.5%. 

One of the most significant aspects was a doubling of Algeria’s military budget to $18.3bn, from $9.2bn the year before. IISS attributed this to a recent procurement deal with Russia. In 2022, Russian media reported that a deal worth $12bn-$17bn was being negotiated, covering submarines, fighter jets and air defence systems. 

The sharp rise in military spending has pushed Algeria’s defence budget up to 8.2% of the country’s GDP – far higher than any other country in the region. The nearest rivals by that measure are Saudi Arabia at 6.5% and Oman at 6.0%.

Regional disputes

The one-off nature of the Russian deal means Algeria’s military spending is likely to fall back next year, but in other parts of the region, rising tensions are pushing governments to dedicate more funding to their armed forces. In early February, Israel’s parliament gave initial approval to an amended budget to help fund Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza, providing an additional $15bn.

With tensions rising in nearby Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, other governments may feel the need to take similar action. However, they may also have to deal with a trend of weaker economic growth, with projections being downgraded for the region as a result of the negative impact of the Gaza war on trade, tourism and investment. 

Iraq – which has become an arena for fighting between Iran-backed militia and US forces in recent months – already posted a 47% increase in its defence budget for 2023, taking it to $10.3bn. 

As Baghdad attempts to catch up on procurement plans that were delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic, it plans to invest in improved air defence systems and is also in the market for new fighter jets, with France’s Rafale and China’s JF-17 Thunder both understood to be under consideration. At least some of the additional spending will be funded by loans from the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency and the South Korean government.

In some countries, spending is going in the opposite direction. Egypt’s defence outlay fell 34% in 2023 to $3.6bn. However, this was due to inflation and the falling value of the Egyptian pound; in local currency terms, the budget was up by 7% to £E92.4bn.

Iran has also been investing heavily in a manner that is unusual in the region in that it is now home to an extensive domestic weapons development and manufacturing base. This situation is due to international sanctions, which have made it difficult for Tehran to source advanced weaponry from abroad.

The advances Iran has made in missile and drone production have been seen on battlefields in Yemen and Ukraine, with Iran now a key supplier to Russia..

The home-grown strength that Tehran has developed is something that Saudi Arabia and the UAE would like to emulate and surpass. Both countries have faced some difficulty in securing modern armaments and equipment from western suppliers, due to disquiet about their actions in Yemen.

While most of those objections have now been dropped, some advanced weaponry remains out of reach, with the US still refusing to sell F-35 fighter jets to the UAE, for example. Such factors mean they will continue to invest heavily in their domestic defence industries in the coming years, while also procuring more equipment from non-western sources such as China.

Main image: Middle East and North Africa military expenditure. Souce: IISS Military Balance 2024

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11539659/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Kuwait reports war damage on oil infrastructure

    6 April 2026

    State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has said that some units have sustained significant damage following Iranian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in recent days.

    Strikes hit facilities operated by its subsidiaries Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum ​Company (KNPC).

    Strikes also hit the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry, as well as power and water desalination plants.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said: “On 5 April, 2026, the oil sector complex located in Shuwaikh, which houses the KPC building and the Ministry of Oil, was attacked by drones, resulting in a fire at the building and significant material damage.

    “Several operational facilities belonging to the corporation, both at KNPC [sites] and PIC [sites], were also subjected to similar drone attacks, leading to fires at a number of these facilities, and causing significant material damage.

    “Emergency and firefighting teams from the concerned companies, with the support of the General Fire Force, implemented the approved response plans.

    “The teams continue to work to control the fires and prevent their spread to adjacent facilities.

    “The corporation confirmed, thanks be to God, that no human casualties were recorded as a result of these attacks.”

    In a television address, Hisham Ahmed Al-Rifai, a spokesperson for the company, said that the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry were targeted at dawn on 5 April.

    He called the attack “reprehensible” and said that Iran used drones to carry it out.

    Al-Rifai said that KPC is still assessing damage to the office building and to the PIC and KNPC facilities.

    The past few days have seen significant damage dealt to a range of oil and gas infrastructure.

    On 3 April, early-morning strikes hit Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    The strikes on 3 April were the third time that the refinery had been hit since the regional conflict started.

    The refining facility is one of the largest in the Middle East and is an important source of refined products for both the domestic market and exports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265360/main.gif
    Wil Crisp
  • Safety and security matters

    3 April 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the April issue of MEED Business Review

    Employment and investment opportunities in a low or no-tax environment have been key attractions for people and businesses located in the GCC for decades. Another crucial factor has been safety and security.

    That reputation has been tested by the missile and drone attacks that began on 28 February. Whether the GCC’s safe haven status has been damaged depends on perspective. 

    For some, the fact that attacks occurred fundamentally changes how the region is viewed. For others, the ability to absorb a serious shock, respond quickly, and keep daily life and businesses functioning demonstrates resilience.

    Any assessment of safety is also relative. Many people and businesses that relocate in the GCC do so not only for opportunity, but because of dissatisfaction elsewhere. Common reasons include limited economic prospects, high taxation, distrust in political leadership and concerns about personal safety. Even with the recent conflict, the GCC may still compare favourably for those considering these factors.

    There is no doubt that missile and drone attacks are extremely dangerous, and the fear of further incidents can linger. Even if attacks are infrequent, the uncertainty matters. It can influence personal decisions, travel advice, and the cost of insurance and risk management. These perceptions will shape the region’s attractiveness.

    Safety concerns vary. In many parts of the world, higher levels of crime are an everyday worry for residents and businesses. For some, the GCC may still feel like the better option, provided the current tensions do not become the new normal.

    How this question is answered will play an important role in how the region’s economies perform in the period ahead. If confidence returns quickly and the risk is seen as contained and manageable, investment and hiring will likely rebound faster than many expect. If uncertainty persists or escalates, the road to recovery will be a long one.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250747/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi forecast remains one of growth

    3 April 2026

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250096/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Dubai seeks consultants for Al-Khawaneej stormwater project

    3 April 2026

    Dubai Municipality has issued a consultancy tender to assess and upgrade the stormwater drainage system serving the Al-Khawaneej First residential district in northeastern Dubai.

    The project, listed as TF-22-E1, covers the upgrading and rehabilitation of the stormwater system in the area. The tender has been issued by the municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 April.

    The works form part of Dubai’s wider efforts to strengthen flood resilience and support sustainable urban infrastructure development.

    Two separate consultancy tenders were issued in March as part of a broader review of the emirate’s water and wastewater infrastructure to support future population growth.

    One involves a study to develop a sustainable urban drainage systems strategy across the emirate. The other covers a review of the emirate’s sewage treatment and recycled water distribution strategy. 

    The Al-Khawaneej First consultancy role will include data collection, site investigations and an assessment of existing drainage conditions.

    Additionally, the consultant will be required to identify flooding hotspots and evaluate the performance of the current system. 

    The project covers the preparation of preliminary and detailed designs, tender documents and construction packages as well as construction supervision through to project handover.

    The municipality added that integrated drainage solutions are to be developed as part of the package, including sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) and nature-based approaches to address current and future stormwater demand.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16249098/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Developer plans two residential schemes in Saudi Arabia

    3 April 2026

    Saudi developer Alramz Real Estate is planning two new residential developments in Jeddah and Riyadh.

    In a Tadawul filing on 31 March, Alramz said it had signed an agreement with Oud Capital to establish a sharia-compliant real estate investment fund to develop the Alramz Front project in Jeddah’s Al-Firdous district.

    The fund is targeting approximately SR650m ($173m), with Alramz committing about SR81.6m. The company will also contribute land totalling around 47,800 square metres, valued at SR215m, as an in-kind contribution.

    The project is expected to deliver nearly 900 residential units. Alramz will serve as developer and exclusive marketer under a development contract valued at about SR269m.

    Separately, Alramz said it had acquired mixed-use plots in Riyadh’s Al-Malqa district for SR94.6m. The 8,600 sq m site will be developed into a residential scheme comprising approximately 135 apartments.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16249064/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal