Foreign policy issues cloud Bahrain’s horizon
8 November 2023
MEED’s December 2023 special report on Bahrain also includes:
> Bahrain waits for major infrastructure projects
> Bahrain takes renewables strides
> Bahrain charts pathway to net-zero future
> Bahrain banks have cause for cheer
Bahrain’s Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Khalifa, first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth & Sports and head of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, flew into Doha on 28 October to watch his compatriots take on Japan in the final of the Asian Men’s Handball Qualification Tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Sheikh Khalid was welcomed on arrival by Qatar's Sheikh Thani bin Hamad al-Thani in what was another sign of the ongoing process of rapprochement between the two countries, following the 2017-21 boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The rebuilding of the bilateral relationship has been a slow process. Indeed, Bahraini officials complained on several occasions in 2022 that Qatar had repeatedly declined to take up its offer of talks.
However, the process picked up momentum in early 2023, with several meetings at the headquarters of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh. In mid-April, the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, although they have yet to reopen embassies or appoint new ambassadors.
Regional tensions
Other foreign policy issues are causing greater diplomatic headaches these days. As one of the two Gulf countries to sign normalisation deals with Israel, Bahrain has found itself in a difficult position in light of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October and the subsequent heavy bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces.
That issue rose to the fore on 2 November, when the Council of Representatives issued a statement saying the Israeli and Bahraini ambassadors to each other’s country had returned home and there had been a “cessation of economic relations”.
This was initially taken by many commentators to mean that diplomatic relations had been broken off, but the reality appears to be a suspension rather than a formal severance of ties. The Bahrain government subsequently issued a statement confirming its ambassador to Tel Aviv had returned home “some time ago” and the Israeli ambassador to Manama had also left. There had been protests outside the embassy since the Hamas-Israel war began.
In addition, direct flights between Bahrain International airport and Tel Aviv airport “stopped as of several weeks ago”, Manama said.
However, the statement made no mention of diplomatic relations being cut. The Israeli government meanwhile said that bilateral relations were “stable”.
However, there is clear potential for the war to escalate and the Bahrain-Israel relationship to worsen. Speaking at the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on 1 November, Bahrain’s ambassador to the UN, Jamal Fares al-Ruwaei, warned about the risks that Israel’s bombing of Gaza could radicalise a new generation. “Such scenes of death and destruction can create entire generations filled with accumulated anger and thirst for vengeance,” he said.
The authorities in Manama will be watching closely in case future protests against Israeli actions include explicit challenges to the Bahrain regime itself.
Economic headwinds
On the economic front there have also been challenges. Italian energy major Eni recently pulled out of the offshore Block 1 licence it secured in May 2019. An exploratory well was drilled on the block in mid-2021.
Bahrain has also yet to make any significant progress on the Khaleej al-Bahrain offshore field, which was discovered in April 2018.
In a more positive development, a $7bn upgrade of the Bapco refinery is due to enable a ramp-up of production to about 380,000 barrels a day by mid-2024, which should bolster government revenues, though there have been some reports of delays.
Bahrain’s headline real GDP growth estimate for 2023 has meanwhile been curbed to 2.7 per cent in the latest update from the Washington-based IMF, down from an estimate of 3 per cent in April. This is down from an estimated 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 and comes amid an extension of Opec+ oil production cuts. Real GDP is forecast to rise back to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
Although high oil prices have bolstered the country’s fiscal position over the past two years, the government has also had to continue trimming public spending to bring its budget closer to balance. In 2023, Bahrain is running an estimated fiscal deficit of 5 per cent of GDP.
Capital Intelligence sovereign analyst, Dina Ennab, predicts the budget deficit will fall to 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared to 6.1 per cent in 2022. It could fall further, to 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2025, “provided the government continues to contain public spending and improves revenue mobilisation”, she wrote in a mid-October ratings review.
This is still a far larger deficit than the government has been aiming for. In early June, the government issued its two-year budget for 2023-24 and said it was targeting a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP in 2024.
Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018, the government had initially aimed to balance its books by 2022, but the year before that deadline – and amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lower oil revenues in 2021 – it pushed the target date back to 2024.
The government’s forecast revenues of BD3.1bn ($8.2bn) in 2023 and BD3.5bn in 2024 are based on a conservative target of oil prices averaging $60 a barrel. The IMF estimates that the country will need an oil price of $108.3 a barrel to balance its budget this year, falling to $96.9 a barrel in 2024 – both figures are by far the highest in the GCC.
Should instability spread around the region, there could be the sort of spike in oil prices that would, in theory, bring the budget into balance, but the wider geopolitical and macroeconomic consequences would almost certainly be broadly negative for Bahrain and neighbouring countries.
Image: Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad attends Olympiad qualifier in Doha. Credit: Bahrain News Agency
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
Houthi truce collapse widens Gulf risk map15 July 2026
-
Saudi Downtown awards Al-Khobar infrastructure deal15 July 2026
-
Saudi Arabia opens third round of gas-fired IPPs15 July 2026
-
-
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Houthi truce collapse widens Gulf risk map
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
The Houthis’ declaration ending the de facto truce with Saudi Arabia has significantly increased the likelihood of renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping and regional infrastructure, broadening the threat environment beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
S&P Global Market Intelligence says the 13 July exchange is best understood as a potential widening of the renewed US-Iran escalation cycle into the Yemen and Red Sea theatres.
Houthi claims that Saudi Arabia was responsible for a strike on Sanaa International airport have not been independently confirmed. Saudi Arabia had not formally commented at the time the analysis was written.
The Yemeni militant group is likely to use the incident as a trigger that allows it to justify renewed military action while aligning with Iran’s wider effort to impose costs on US and Gulf interests, according to the research firm.
The decision to declare an end to de-escalation with Riyadh materially increases the likelihood of further missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) activity against infrastructure near the Yemen-Saudi border, as well as renewed pressure on maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab.
Aviation exposure
The resumption of direct hostilities broadens the range of vessels and ports likely to be subject to Houthi targeting, and presents severe risk to airports and stationary aircraft, S&P Global Market Intelligence says.
While the Houthis would probably not intentionally down civilian aircraft, there is a significant risk to aircraft in flight, particularly at lower altitudes close to airports, due to incoming UAVs and missiles and interceptor activity.
The broader risk is to regional logistics rather than any single target set, the analysis says.
If escalation around the Strait of Hormuz coincides with renewed Houthi activity in the southern Red Sea, Bab Al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, commercial operators face a more complex dual-chokepoint environment, with the added likelihood that the Houthis will seek to target Hormuz bypass infrastructure across the Gulf.
That would raise the likelihood of shipping delays, higher insurance costs, more conservative routing decisions and greater interest in alternative corridors or bypass routes.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17680608/main.jpg -
Saudi Downtown awards Al-Khobar infrastructure deal
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Downtown Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund (PIF), has awarded a contract for infrastructure works in downtown Al-Khobar.
The contract was awarded to local contractor Ansab General Contracting Company.
The scope of work includes the design and development of overall infrastructure, road networks and street lighting for the downtown Al-Khobar project.
Saudi Downtown Company was officially launched in 2022 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, who is also chairman of PIF.
At the time, the company announced plans to develop downtown areas in 12 cities across the kingdom: Medina, Al-Khobar, Al-Ahsa, Buraidah, Najran, Jizan, Hail, Al-Baha, Arar, Taif, Dumat Al-Jandal and Tabuk.
SDC’s mandate is to develop more than 10 million square metres of land across its projects
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17677176/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia opens third round of gas-fired IPPs
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has opened the qualification process for the third round of conventional independent power projects (IPPs) using combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) technology.
The round is being tendered under the supervision of the Ministry of Energy. Each plant will be built with provision for carbon capture unit readiness, allowing the technology to be deployed at a later stage.
Each project will be developed on a build-own-operate (BOO) basis, with the winning consortium taking 100% equity in a special purpose vehicle (SPV) set up to develop and operate the plant.
Each SPV will sign a power purchase agreement with SPPC, which is licensed by the Saudi Electricity Regulatory Authority (SERA) to prepare preliminary studies, tender and award IPPs, and purchase electricity from energy projects in the kingdom.
The programme forms part of Saudi Arabia’s Circular Carbon Economy approach, which underpins the energy sector element of the Vision 2030 strategy. Riyadh is displacing liquid fuels with natural gas in power generation to cut emissions intensity, while designing new plants so that carbon capture equipment can be retrofitted in support of national emissions targets.
In April, Acwa and Saudi Energy (formerly Saudi Electricity Company) signed a 31-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with SPPC for the Rabigh 2 IPP expansion.
The project involves the development of a CCGT plant in the Mecca region. It will have a total capacity of 2,313.5MW.
The contract is valued at SR11.5bn ($3.07bn), the companies said in separate stock exchange filings.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17676286/main.jpg -
Dubai selects contractor for Al-Maktoum airport people mover
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP) has selected a contractor to deliver the automated people-mover system as part of the first phase of the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.
A team of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation and Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro is the selected contractor.
The automated people-mover system will serve as a critical facility for operations at Al-Maktoum International airport. The system will run under the apron of the entire airfield and the airport’s terminals. It will consist of multiple tracks, taking passengers from the terminals to the concourses.
Four underground stations will be built as part of the first phase. The overall plan includes 14 stations across the airport.
The firms submitted the bids for the project in July last year, as MEED exclusively reported.
The contract is the latest in a series of awards signed by DAEP recently. DAEP has awarded contracts valued at about AED13bn, with construction works currently under way on several airport packages.
These include enabling works, the second runway, and the initial structural foundations for passenger terminals and gates.
Upcoming awards
In June, DAEP said that it will award contracts worth over AED55bn ($15bn) by the end of this year for construction works at Al-Maktoum International airport.
The projects slated for contract awards include the substructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal, the fourth aircraft concourse building and the baggage handling system, in addition to the superstructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal and the first, second and third aircraft concourses.
The packages also encompass long-span structural frameworks for buildings covering about 1.5 million square metres (sq m), infrastructure works for the southern airfield area, and power generation and district cooling plants supporting the construction programme.
The award of the facade and roofing packages is also planned for this year.
Construction progress
In May last year, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.
The enabling works on the terminal were awarded to Abu Dhabi-based Tristar E&C.
Construction on the project’s first phase is expected to be completed by 2032.
Construction on substructure works began in November last year, when DAEP formally selected a contractor to deliver the package.
The government approved the updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024.
In a statement, the authorities said the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International within 10 years.
According to an official description on DAEP’s website, the expanded airport’s West Terminal will be a seven-level, 800,000 sq m facility with an annual capacity of 45 million passengers.
It will be the second of three terminals at Al-Maktoum International airport.
In September 2024, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as the lead masterplanning and design consultants on the expansion of Al-Maktoum airport.
The airport’s construction is planned to be undertaken in three phases. The airport will cover an area of 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and will have five parallel runways and 430 aircraft gates.
It will be five times the size of the existing Dubai International airport and will have the world’s largest passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year. For cargo, it will have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17674721/main.png -
Chinese contractor wins Kuwait investment authority HQ
15 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has won a contract to build the permanent headquarters of the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority (KDIPA).
The contract covers the construction of a 275-metre, 55-storey office tower located in Kuwait City’s Sharq district. The project is expected to be completed by 2028.
According to results published on the Kuwait Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt) website, the firm initially submitted a bid of $233m, as MEED reported in January. The tender was issued on 19 October 2025 and bids were submitted on 18 November, MEED reported.
The contract is the latest in a series of high-profile projects signed by CSCEC in the GCC region this year. Last month, it won a contract to deliver the Janadriyah cultural district at Qiddiya entertainment city on the outskirts of Riyadh. The contract was awarded by gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC).
The scope covers the construction of six structures, including a heritage building, a gateway hotel, a wadi hotel, a creative hub, a community centre and an open-air market.
In June, MEED exclusively reported that QIC had awarded CSCEC a contract to build a new transport hub at Qiddiya entertainment city.
The project is located within the resort core zone of the development.
Kuwait market overview
UK analytics firm GlobalData expects Kuwait’s construction industry to average annual growth of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by government investment in renewable energy and transport infrastructure.
In September 2025, Kuwait’s government allocated KD1.3bn ($4.2bn) for 141 projects, as part of its capital spending during the fiscal year 2025-26. This allocation was intended for 162 current projects and 17 new projects.
According to government data, as of September 2025, the country had around 300 active projects, valued at about KD35.3bn ($115bn), with large infrastructure projects making up nearly half of that total.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17674440/main.jpg