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Foreign policy issues cloud Bahrain’s horizon

8 November 2023

MEED’s December 2023 special report on Bahrain also includes: 

> Bahrain waits for major infrastructure projects
> Bahrain takes renewables strides
> Bahrain charts pathway to net-zero future
> Bahrain banks have cause for cheer

 

Bahrain’s Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Khalifa, first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth & Sports and head of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, flew into Doha on 28 October to watch his compatriots take on Japan in the final of the Asian Men’s Handball Qualification Tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Sheikh Khalid was welcomed on arrival by Qatar's Sheikh Thani bin Hamad al-Thani in what was another sign of the ongoing process of rapprochement between the two countries, following the 2017-21 boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The rebuilding of the bilateral relationship has been a slow process. Indeed, Bahraini officials complained on several occasions in 2022 that Qatar had repeatedly declined to take up its offer of talks.

However, the process picked up momentum in early 2023, with several meetings at the headquarters of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh. In mid-April, the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, although they have yet to reopen embassies or appoint new ambassadors.

Regional tensions

Other foreign policy issues are causing greater diplomatic headaches these days. As one of the two Gulf countries to sign normalisation deals with Israel, Bahrain has found itself in a difficult position in light of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October and the subsequent heavy bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces.

That issue rose to the fore on 2 November, when the Council of Representatives issued a statement saying the Israeli and Bahraini ambassadors to each other’s country had returned home and there had been a “cessation of economic relations”.

This was initially taken by many commentators to mean that diplomatic relations had been broken off, but the reality appears to be a suspension rather than a formal severance of ties. The Bahrain government subsequently issued a statement confirming its ambassador to Tel Aviv had returned home “some time ago” and the Israeli ambassador to Manama had also left. There had been protests outside the embassy since the Hamas-Israel war began.

In addition, direct flights between Bahrain International airport and Tel Aviv airport “stopped as of several weeks ago”, Manama said.

However, the statement made no mention of diplomatic relations being cut. The Israeli government meanwhile said that bilateral relations were “stable”.

However, there is clear potential for the war to escalate and the Bahrain-Israel relationship to worsen. Speaking at the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on 1 November, Bahrain’s ambassador to the UN, Jamal Fares al-Ruwaei, warned about the risks that Israel’s bombing of Gaza could radicalise a new generation. “Such scenes of death and destruction can create entire generations filled with accumulated anger and thirst for vengeance,” he said.

The authorities in Manama will be watching closely in case future protests against Israeli actions include explicit challenges to the Bahrain regime itself.

Economic headwinds

On the economic front there have also been challenges. Italian energy major Eni recently pulled out of the offshore Block 1 licence it secured in May 2019. An exploratory well was drilled on the block in mid-2021.

Bahrain has also yet to make any significant progress on the Khaleej al-Bahrain offshore field, which was discovered in April 2018.

In a more positive development, a $7bn upgrade of the Bapco refinery is due to enable a ramp-up of production to about 380,000 barrels a day by mid-2024, which should bolster government revenues, though there have been some reports of delays.

Bahrain’s headline real GDP growth estimate for 2023 has meanwhile been curbed to 2.7 per cent in the latest update from the Washington-based IMF, down from an estimate of 3 per cent in April. This is down from an estimated 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 and comes amid an extension of Opec+ oil production cuts. Real GDP is forecast to rise back to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

Although high oil prices have bolstered the country’s fiscal position over the past two years, the government has also had to continue trimming public spending to bring its budget closer to balance. In 2023, Bahrain is running an estimated fiscal deficit of 5 per cent of GDP.

Capital Intelligence sovereign analyst, Dina Ennab, predicts the budget deficit will fall to 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared to 6.1 per cent in 2022. It could fall further, to 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2025, “provided the government continues to contain public spending and improves revenue mobilisation”, she wrote in a mid-October ratings review.

This is still a far larger deficit than the government has been aiming for. In early June, the government issued its two-year budget for 2023-24 and said it was targeting a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP in 2024.

Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018, the government had initially aimed to balance its books by 2022, but the year before that deadline – and amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lower oil revenues in 2021 – it pushed the target date back to 2024.

The government’s forecast revenues of BD3.1bn ($8.2bn) in 2023 and BD3.5bn in 2024 are based on a conservative target of oil prices averaging $60 a barrel. The IMF estimates that the country will need an oil price of $108.3 a barrel to balance its budget this year, falling to $96.9 a barrel in 2024 – both figures are by far the highest in the GCC.

Should instability spread around the region, there could be the sort of spike in oil prices that would, in theory, bring the budget into balance, but the wider geopolitical and macroeconomic consequences would almost certainly be broadly negative for Bahrain and neighbouring countries.

Image: Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad attends Olympiad qualifier in Doha. Credit: Bahrain News Agency

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Dominic Dudley

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  • Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders

    6 August 2026

     

    If 2025 was marked by the advent of reform in the shape of public debt and mortgage laws, 2026 has been a year of resilience in the face of sharp shifts in the operating environment.

    Like their peers across the GCC, Kuwait’s banks have stood out this year for their crisis preparedness. With Kuwait facing sustained attacks from Iran – testing a hydrocarbons-based economy that is uniquely vulnerable to such shocks – banks are focusing on maintaining durability under especially challenging conditions.

    The sector entered 2026 in a relatively strong position. As of March 2026 – one month into the US-Israeli campaign against Iran – the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at a creditable 1.7%. A capital adequacy ratio of 17.5% in Q1 is another sign of resilience, underscoring banks’ capacity to absorb unexpected losses.

    Kuwaiti banks’ reserve coverage stands at 223% of problem loans, one of the highest levels of loan-loss allowance coverage for Stage 3 exposures in the region. This is in large part due to the Central Bank of Kuwait’s (CBK’s) strict regulatory requirements.

    Overall, banks have strong capitalisation, solid liquidity, high loan loss-absorption buffers and sound asset quality. That mix provides confidence that the banking sector can continue to support the economy in difficult circumstances.

    Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required
    Abdulla Al-Hammadi, Moody’s

    Bank dominance

    Banks also remain central to Kuwait’s economy. As the Washington-based IMF has noted, financial intermediation is overwhelmingly bank-based, with domestic currency bond and equity markets underdeveloped by emerging-market standards.

    “Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required,” says Abdulla Al-Hammadi, an analyst at Moody’s.

    Bank assets reached 250% of GDP in 2024 – among the highest in the GCC, according to the IMF. This is supported by strong balance sheets, high liquidity and a large Islamic finance segment. Kuwait Finance House, Boubyan Bank, Kuwait International Bank and Warba Bank – the four main Islamic lenders – together account for KD53bn ($172bn), or 51% of total banking sector assets.

    Early 2026 performance metrics show a solid rise in assets at listed Kuwaiti banks, growing by 12.5% year-on-year to KD130.82bn ($366.4bn) in Q1. Net profits increased by a smaller margin, 1.1%, to KD382.96m ($1.07bn) in the same quarter, according to KPMG.

    National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the largest bank by assets, reported net profit of KD324.8m ($1.06bn) for the first half of 2026, a 3% year-on-year increase. Despite the impact of the conflict, the second quarter saw profits rise 4.5% to KD181.2m ($588.4m).

    Ratings support

    Ratings agencies have retained their confidence in Kuwaiti banks. In a rating action announced on 18 June, Moody’s affirmed the long-term deposit ratings of eight Kuwaiti banks, reflecting their resilient credit profiles supported by strong capital, provisioning reserves and liquidity buffers.

    Under Moody’s central scenario – which assumes a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn and persistently high and volatile energy prices – the expected deterioration in operating conditions remains within the absorption capacity of these banks’ baseline credit assessments.

    Kuwait’s strong sovereign ratings and high level of system support provide additional comfort. Government financial assets are estimated at more than 475% of GDP, while the debt burden was around 19% of GDP as of March 2026 – factors that underpin the government’s capacity to support the banking system in the event of stress.

    Nor is Kuwait at particular risk of external funding outflows. According to S&P Global, Kuwait has a comfortable net external asset position that mitigates such risks.

    “Depositor confidence has remained stable. The banks continue to access international interbank markets,” says Al-Hammadi. “Their liquidity buffers will support their ability to continue lending and absorb any potential shock.”

    Regulatory response

    Regulatory supervision is another core strength. The CBK has a reputation for hands-on oversight of the banking sector. In March, it rolled out a stimulus package to encourage banks to lend as the Iran conflict buffeted the region. The measures included a temporary easing of macroprudential requirements, with the minimum liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio reduced from 100% to 80%. The minimum regulatory ratio was cut from 18% to 15%.

    These measures appear to have had the intended effect. According to NBK’s research arm, domestic credit growth picked up in May, rising by half a percentage point over the previous month to 6.7% in year-on-year terms. Signs of stronger business lending, with gains across services, trade and real estate, will have been particularly welcome.

    “Many Kuwaiti banks have concentrated their lending activity around the Kuwait economy,” says Al-Hammadi. “Overall GDP is under pressure given recent developments in the hydrocarbon sector. It’s still an oil-driven economy, but if you look at non-oil activity, it has continued to benefit from government investment.”

    Credit growth will be supported by improving economic sentiment, so long as deposit growth keeps pace. However, lending is unlikely to match previous years’ levels.

    “Our expectation is that lending growth will drop, given what is happening in the macroeconomic environment. Growth could be a bit slower compared to previous years,” says Al-Hammadi.

    The CBK has urged local banks to be flexible towards customers, although anecdotal evidence suggests greater caution, including tighter personal loan limits.

    Reforms, including the mortgage and housing law, provide an additional opportunity for Kuwaiti banks to support broader growth. The Real Estate Financing Law permits banks to offer supported loans under which the state covers interest payments via the Kuwait Credit Bank, while borrowers repay only the principal.

    Although hydrocarbon-sector growth will be negatively impacted by events in the Gulf this year, banks should be able to secure growth by focusing on the non-hydrocarbon economy.

    “We see growth driven by the non-oil economy and some of the project finance opportunities, which will benefit from the banking sector’s capital and liquidity position. It places the banks in the right place to grab this opportunity,” says Al-Hammadi.

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  • PDO floats tender for major flare gas monetisation scheme

    6 August 2026

     

    Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has launched a major scheme to monetise gas flared across two of its largest hydrocarbon-producing zones in the sultanate. The initiative aligns with PDO’s commitment to achieve zero routine flaring and net-zero methane emissions by 2030, on the way to attaining full carbon neutrality by 2050.

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    The scope of the flare gas and associated gas monetisation scheme has been divided into two parts. Bundle A involves the offtake of associated gas from the Wadi Umayri oil field development, located in the Qarn Alam cluster. Bundle B relates to the monetisation of flare gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the Fahud North Oman Crude Stabilisation (FNOCS) facility, located at the Fahud field.

    PDO issued the request for proposal document for the flare gas monetisation scheme on 21 July, inviting local and international developers to submit technical and commercial proposals by 25 August.

    Developers have the option of submitting proposals for the complete design, financing, construction, operation and maintenance of offtake or monetisation facilities for one or both bundles. PDO will evaluate proposals for each bundle separately and award contracts independently.

    PDO is the operator of Block 6, Oman’s largest and most prolific hydrocarbon concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields, with PDO producing approximately 680,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil and condensate from those fields.

    The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman (EDO). The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).

    Scope of Bundle A

    The Wadi Umayri field development, located within the Qarn Alam cluster, produces crude oil from the Lekhwair, Shuaiba and Sudair reservoirs. A permanent processing facility is planned to come onstream by the first quarter of 2030.

    As a by-product of oil production, the development will generate associated gas at an initial rate of approximately 60,000 to 68,000 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), declining over field life.

    PDO will install a sweetening unit as part of its own scope to meet Oman’s regulatory requirement of all gas with sulphur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations above 0.035 g/m³ to be treated prior to any disposal.

    At the delivery point (battery limit flange), the gas made available to the future developer will consist of a blended stream from two sources: approximately 80% sweetened separator gas and 20% flashed gas recovered from atmospheric storage tanks. This blended gas composition forms the basis for downstream utilisation, processing, or disposal considerations under the development concept.

    The duration of the contract to be awarded by PDO to the developer is 10 years.

    The scope of work on Bundle A is split between PDO and the developer, and covers the following:

    PDO tie-in scope:

    • Tie-in works from the production separator and oil tank to the defined delivery point (flange at battery limit), including piping, metering and ESD/control valves.
    • Sweetening unit upstream of the delivery point to treat the main gas stream and meet regulatory SO₂ limits for any non-routine flaring events.
    • Allocate a designated plot plan adjacent to the permanent facility, at no cost to the developer.
    • The gas delivery point is defined as the flange at PDO’s battery limit of the Wadi Umayri permanent facility. Gas will be supplied as-is at approximately 1.00 bar, with PDO bearing no obligation to provide gas at higher pressure or low hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) concentration.

    Developer scope:

    • Design, build, maintain and operate the gas monetisation system outside PDO’s battery limit.
    • Provide all equipment, infrastructure, compression, conditioning and downstream handling from the delivery point onward.
    • Bear full capital expenditure (capex), operational expenditure (opex), leases, health, safety and environment (HSE), and regulatory responsibilities for all developer scope.
    • Self-generation of all required utilities, such as power, water and chemicals.
    • Handling, treatment and disposal of all product and by-product streams.
    Scope of Bundle B

    FNOCS is a centralised processing facility at the Fahud field. The facility processes associated hydrocarbons from producing fields in PDO’s northern portfolio, generating two primary streams: produced NGL stream at FNOCS is blended into the Main Oil Line (MOL), while the produced fuel gas is supplied to the Fahud power plant.

    The continued flaring of NGLs at FNOCS is an interim risk-mitigation measure and not a sustainable operating solution. To identify a viable long-term outlet for these volumes, and to meet PDO’s broader strategy to eliminate flaring and comply with its zero routine flaring commitment by 2030, the company is seeking third-party developers to monetise hydrocarbon streams currently being flared at FNOCS.

    PDO’s target is to secure an attractive commercial structure to stop flaring by offering two independently proposed operating options:

    Option 1 – Monetise the flare gas stream, upstream of main gas compressor: Take the currently flared gas, at an output rate of 90,000 standard cm/d, as-is in the current interim operating mode. Developer to design, build and operate a gas monetisation system outside PDO’s battery limit. This option has the highest zero routine flaring compliance impact and eliminates the need for re-operating the main gas compressor and its associated equipment.

    Option 2 – Monetise NGL + fuel gas: Restart the main gas compressor and stabiliser to separate NGL and fuel gas streams for sale. Vendor takes NGL (downstream of stabiliser), at a current rate of 106,000 standard cm/d and fuel gas (upstream of Fahud power plant), at a current rate of 44,000 standard cm/d, through a combined commercial structure.

    The duration of the contract to be awarded by PDO to the developer for Bundle B is five years, with the proposed facility to come onstream by the first quarter of 2029.

    The scope of work on Bundle B is also split between PDO and the developer, and covers the following:

    PDO tie-in scope:

    Approximately 200 metres of piping to FNOCS fence, including control/ESD/relief valves and a flowmeter.

    Allocate a designated plot plan approximately 4km from the existing FNOCS facility for the developer’s monetisation system.

    • The delivery point for option 1 is defined as the flange at FNOCS’s fence, upstream of the main gas compressor. The delivery points for option 2 are: (i) the NGL outlet downstream of the stabiliser, and (ii) the fuel gas outlet upstream of the Fahud power plant. Streams from both options will be supplied as-is at approximately 1.00 bar, with PDO bearing no obligation to provide gas at higher pressure or low H₂S concentration.

    Developer scope:

    • Design, build, maintain and operate the gas monetisation system outside PDO’s battery limit.
    • Provide all equipment, infrastructure, compression, conditioning and downstream handling from the delivery point onward.
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    • Handling, treatment and disposal of all product and by-product streams.

    PDO has been striving to curb, and eventually end, flaring across its operations for several years, as part of its own targets, as well as in alignment with the environmental sustainability framework under Oman Vision 2040.

    In May last year, PDO initiated a flare gas recovery project at the Zulaiyah station in Hazar South in partnership with Hungary-based Enerhash, which aims to convert flare gas into a sustainable energy source through modular digital mining infrastructure.

    Enerhash’s technology powers containerised data centres directly with flare gas, offering a decentralised solution suitable for remote oil fields.

    The project is designed to avoid around 25,000 tonnes a year of carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions, and builds on PDO’s earlier South AP flare recovery project, which sought vendors to recover gas from atmospheric dehydration tanks across sites such as Bahja, Rima, Amal, Marmul and Nimr.

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  • Sabic completes $450m divestment of thermoplastics business

    6 August 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) has completed a transaction to divest its engineering thermoplastics business in the Americas and Europe to German venture capital and private equity firm Mutares, for an enterprise value of $450m.

    Sabic’s Americas and Europe engineering thermoplastics business produces polycarbonate, polybutylene terephthalate and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene resins and compounds, and operates manufacturing sites in Mt Vernon, Bay St Louis and Burkville in the US; Ottawa, Canada; Tampico, Mexico; Campinas, Brazil; Cartagena, Spain; and Bergen op Zoom, the Netherlands.

    The divestment process was initiated by Sabic in January this year and marks a significant milestone in the company’s broader portfolio optimisation programme.

    “The transaction supports Sabic’s continued focus on exiting structurally underperforming assets, reducing cash losses, improving return on capital employed and maximising long-term shareholder value,” the Saudi chemicals giant said.

    The divested business reported an operating loss of approximately $498m for full-year 2025, and approximately $173m for the first half of this year.

    On a pro forma basis, the carve-out of the engineering thermoplastics business improved Sabic’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin by approximately 130-140 basis points, “reflecting the positive impact of the transaction on the company’s overall profitability and portfolio quality”.

    In addition to agreeing the sale of its engineering thermoplastics business in January, Sabic also began a process to divest its European petrochemicals business to Aequita for an estimated enterprise value of $500m.

    Aequita is a Munich-based venture capital and private equity firm.

    Sabic’s European petrochemicals business produces and markets ethylene, propylene, low- and high-density polyethylene, polypropylene and value-added polymer compounds, and operates manufacturing sites in Teesside, the UK; Geleen, the Netherlands; Gelsenkirchen, Germany; and Genk, Belgium.

    Q2 2026 financial results

    Sabic reported a net loss of $100m for the second quarter of 2026, which it attributed to the impact of the Iran-US regional conflict on its business.

    The company had only returned to profit in the first quarter, registering a net income of $3.52m, after posting a full-year 2025 loss of $6.87bn.

    The Saudi petrochemicals giant also said Q2 2026 revenue fell 5% year-on-year to $6.62bn.

    Sabic posted adjusted Ebitda of $900m for the three months to 30 June, a drop of 18% compared to the previous quarter.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in Q2 also fell by 72% quarter-on-quarter to $110m, while adjusted earnings per share stood at $0.03.

    Saudi Exchange-listed Sabic said its net debt position remained largely unchanged at $730m at the end of June, compared with $740m at the end of March.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18153251/main4445.jpg
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  • UAE leads Mena project pipeline recovery

    6 August 2026

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    The Middle East and North Africa’s construction project pipeline strengthened in June 2026, recovering some of the momentum lost earlier in the year as the effects of the Israel-Iran conflict continued to work through regional project markets.

    GlobalData’s Construction Projects Momentum Index (CPMI) for the Mena region rose to 0.84 in June, up 5% from 0.80 in May, leaving the region third globally behind South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The three-month moving average held at 0.95, unchanged from May.

    The recovery was led by execution-stage activity, where the score rose to 1.18 in June from 1.06 in May. Pre-execution momentum, however, continued to soften, falling to 0.68 from 0.73. The pre-execution stage captures project planning, design development and procurement preparation, and a sustained decline there can point to a thinning of the future pipeline even when near-term execution holds up.

    Infrastructure drove the sector-level gains, with momentum rising sharply to 1.03 in June from 0.25 in May, the largest increase among the region’s sectors. Industrial momentum rose to 0.78 from 0.40. Residential activity remained elevated at 1.17, easing only marginally from 1.22.

    The gains were partly offset by a steep pullback in institutional activity, where momentum fell to 0.45 in June from 1.72 in May, the largest decline of any sector. Commercial and leisure momentum eased to 0.88 from 1.13, and energy and utilities to 0.59 from 0.82.

    The UAE posted the region’s highest score in June at 1.52, up from 1.16 in May. Algeria rose to 1.26 from 0.68, and Kuwait recovered to 0.76 from 0.26. Egypt reached 1.36, Oman held at 0.87, Qatar rose to 0.86 and Iran eased to 0.81.

    Saudi Arabia was the main exception among the larger markets, with its score falling to 0.31 in June from 1.16 in May. GlobalData linked the decline to procurement disruption on renewable energy projects under the Public Investment Fund’s giga developments and to the Najran-Asir-Jizan direct road, which faced consecutive bidding delays and consortium withdrawals.

    Israel recovered to 0.65 in June from -1.66 in May, having recorded the region’s weakest scores through the earlier phase of the conflict.

    Whether the June recovery is sustained will depend on the direction of pre-execution activity, which continued to weaken even as execution-stage momentum firmed.

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  • Mubadala backs Moove in $250m funding round

    6 August 2026

    UAE-headquartered mobility company Moove has raised $250m in a Series C funding round led by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company, giving the company a valuation of $2.1bn.

    The round was co-led by Woven Capital, the growth fund of Japan’s Toyota, and by Ion Pacific. It also brought in BlueCrest Capital Management and Sona Capital, alongside existing backers including BlackRock, Japan’s MUFG, Franklin Templeton, Uber and the Ontario Power Generation Pension Plan.

    Moove said the funding will support the expansion of its autonomous vehicle business, including fleet ownership and what it terms robotics-first depot infrastructure, or “Nests”, where autonomous fleets are charged, serviced, maintained and orchestrated. The company said the funds will also support new market launches.

    The company expects to grow its autonomous vehicle workforce by more than 220% by the end of the year, increasing from about 150 employees to about 500.

    Founded in 2020 and headquartered in the UAE, Moove finances, owns and operates mobility assets for ride-hailing platforms. It employs 3,300 people and operates about 42,000 vehicles across 29 cities in 13 countries, and has grown to $420m in annual recurring revenue. It has expanded through organic growth and acquisitions, including Kovi in Brazil and Tokyo Taxi in Japan.

    Moove is the largest global fleet partner of ride-hailing company Uber. Through a partnership with Waymo, the autonomous driving unit of US technology group Alphabet, it operates autonomous vehicle fleets in Phoenix and Miami in the US, with operations also planned in London.

    Mubadala first invested in Moove three years ago. The Series C round marks its continued backing of the company as it moves into autonomous fleet operations.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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