meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Foreign policy issues cloud Bahrain’s horizon

8 November 2023

MEED’s December 2023 special report on Bahrain also includes: 

> Bahrain waits for major infrastructure projects
> Bahrain takes renewables strides
> Bahrain charts pathway to net-zero future
> Bahrain banks have cause for cheer

 

Bahrain’s Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad al-Khalifa, first deputy chairman of the Supreme Council for Youth & Sports and head of the Bahrain Olympic Committee, flew into Doha on 28 October to watch his compatriots take on Japan in the final of the Asian Men’s Handball Qualification Tournament for the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Sheikh Khalid was welcomed on arrival by Qatar's Sheikh Thani bin Hamad al-Thani in what was another sign of the ongoing process of rapprochement between the two countries, following the 2017-21 boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The rebuilding of the bilateral relationship has been a slow process. Indeed, Bahraini officials complained on several occasions in 2022 that Qatar had repeatedly declined to take up its offer of talks.

However, the process picked up momentum in early 2023, with several meetings at the headquarters of the Gulf Co-operation Council in Riyadh. In mid-April, the two sides agreed to restore full diplomatic relations, although they have yet to reopen embassies or appoint new ambassadors.

Regional tensions

Other foreign policy issues are causing greater diplomatic headaches these days. As one of the two Gulf countries to sign normalisation deals with Israel, Bahrain has found itself in a difficult position in light of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October and the subsequent heavy bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces.

That issue rose to the fore on 2 November, when the Council of Representatives issued a statement saying the Israeli and Bahraini ambassadors to each other’s country had returned home and there had been a “cessation of economic relations”.

This was initially taken by many commentators to mean that diplomatic relations had been broken off, but the reality appears to be a suspension rather than a formal severance of ties. The Bahrain government subsequently issued a statement confirming its ambassador to Tel Aviv had returned home “some time ago” and the Israeli ambassador to Manama had also left. There had been protests outside the embassy since the Hamas-Israel war began.

In addition, direct flights between Bahrain International airport and Tel Aviv airport “stopped as of several weeks ago”, Manama said.

However, the statement made no mention of diplomatic relations being cut. The Israeli government meanwhile said that bilateral relations were “stable”.

However, there is clear potential for the war to escalate and the Bahrain-Israel relationship to worsen. Speaking at the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly on 1 November, Bahrain’s ambassador to the UN, Jamal Fares al-Ruwaei, warned about the risks that Israel’s bombing of Gaza could radicalise a new generation. “Such scenes of death and destruction can create entire generations filled with accumulated anger and thirst for vengeance,” he said.

The authorities in Manama will be watching closely in case future protests against Israeli actions include explicit challenges to the Bahrain regime itself.

Economic headwinds

On the economic front there have also been challenges. Italian energy major Eni recently pulled out of the offshore Block 1 licence it secured in May 2019. An exploratory well was drilled on the block in mid-2021.

Bahrain has also yet to make any significant progress on the Khaleej al-Bahrain offshore field, which was discovered in April 2018.

In a more positive development, a $7bn upgrade of the Bapco refinery is due to enable a ramp-up of production to about 380,000 barrels a day by mid-2024, which should bolster government revenues, though there have been some reports of delays.

Bahrain’s headline real GDP growth estimate for 2023 has meanwhile been curbed to 2.7 per cent in the latest update from the Washington-based IMF, down from an estimate of 3 per cent in April. This is down from an estimated 4.9 per cent growth in 2023 and comes amid an extension of Opec+ oil production cuts. Real GDP is forecast to rise back to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

Although high oil prices have bolstered the country’s fiscal position over the past two years, the government has also had to continue trimming public spending to bring its budget closer to balance. In 2023, Bahrain is running an estimated fiscal deficit of 5 per cent of GDP.

Capital Intelligence sovereign analyst, Dina Ennab, predicts the budget deficit will fall to 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, compared to 6.1 per cent in 2022. It could fall further, to 3.6 per cent of GDP by 2025, “provided the government continues to contain public spending and improves revenue mobilisation”, she wrote in a mid-October ratings review.

This is still a far larger deficit than the government has been aiming for. In early June, the government issued its two-year budget for 2023-24 and said it was targeting a deficit of less than 1 per cent of GDP in 2024.

Under the Fiscal Balance Programme launched in 2018, the government had initially aimed to balance its books by 2022, but the year before that deadline – and amid the Covid-19 pandemic and lower oil revenues in 2021 – it pushed the target date back to 2024.

The government’s forecast revenues of BD3.1bn ($8.2bn) in 2023 and BD3.5bn in 2024 are based on a conservative target of oil prices averaging $60 a barrel. The IMF estimates that the country will need an oil price of $108.3 a barrel to balance its budget this year, falling to $96.9 a barrel in 2024 – both figures are by far the highest in the GCC.

Should instability spread around the region, there could be the sort of spike in oil prices that would, in theory, bring the budget into balance, but the wider geopolitical and macroeconomic consequences would almost certainly be broadly negative for Bahrain and neighbouring countries.

Image: Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad attends Olympiad qualifier in Doha. Credit: Bahrain News Agency

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11276847/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential

    7 April 2026

     

    Between 2023 and 2024, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) spent an estimated $37bn on projects critical to achieving its upstream targets: increasing oil production capacity to 5 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2027 and attaining gas self-sufficiency by the end of the decade.

    The state energy company spent more than $22.5bn in 2023 alone, marking the highest annual oil and gas project spending on record in the UAE. The Hail and Ghasha sour gas development – accounting for approximately $17bn – remains the single-largest contract award in the country’s hydrocarbons sector.

    A slowdown in capital expenditure (capex) following two years of elevated spending is therefore in line with expectations. While engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract awards for upstream projects declined in 2025 and into this year, Adnoc has still committed close to $10bn over the past 15 months.

    The largest award during this period came from Adnoc Offshore, which let contracts worth $7.5bn for three EPC packages under the Lower Zakum Long-Term Development Plan (LTDP-1). Spain’s Tecnicas Reunidas and Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy and Target Engineering Construction Company were selected last February to execute the works.

    The Lower Zakum field, located 65 kilometres northwest of Abu Dhabi, is majority-owned by Adnoc Offshore (60%). Other stakeholders include an Indian consortium led by ONGC Videsh (10%), Japan’s Inpex (10%), China National Petroleum Corporation (10%), Italy’s Eni (5%) and France’s TotalEnergies (5%).

    Adnoc Offshore aims to increase production capacity at Lower Zakum to 520,000 b/d by 2027 and sustain that level through 2034.

    Offshore contracts in 2026

    So far this year, Adnoc Offshore has awarded contracts for two key projects: the Satah Al-Razboot (Sarb) deep gas development and the expansion of the Nasr oil field.

    Adnoc achieved final investment decision (FID) on the Sarb project in January and awarded the main EPC contract to US-based McDermott International. The contract is estimated to be worth around $500m, sources told MEED.

    The project is expected to deliver 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas by the end of the decade – enough to power more than 300,000 homes.

    The scope includes the EPC of an offshore wellhead tower with four gas production wells, which will be connected to Das Island for processing through Adnoc Gas facilities. Works also include the installation of pipelines and intra-field connections linking the Sarb field to Das Island.

    Also in January, Adnoc Offshore awarded McDermott a $942m contract for the Nasr-115 project, which will increase production capacity at the Nasr offshore field to 115,000 b/d. The field is located about 130km northwest of Abu Dhabi.

    McDermott’s scope covers full EPCI services for two topside structures, a new manifold tower, a jacket, a bridge, associated pipelines, subsea cables and brownfield modifications.

    Strategic projects in queue

    Over the next 12-18 months, Adnoc’s upstream spending is expected to shift from meeting near-term production targets –now largely within reach – to building longer-term capacity beyond 2030.

    Following $1.3bn in EPC awards in 2024 for the Upper Zakum expansion to 1.2 million b/d, Adnoc Offshore is advancing the next phase, which will increase capacity to 1.5 million b/d.

    Located 84km offshore, Upper Zakum is the world’s second-largest offshore oil field. Adnoc Offshore has divided the EPC scope into three packages, with contractors submitting commercial bids for the UZ1.5MMBD project in February.

    Adnoc Offshore is also progressing the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project, aimed at increasing gas production by 550 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) and condensate output by 50,000 b/d. About 520 million cf/d of additional gas is expected to be fed into Adnoc’s sales gas network.

    The first phase of the project has been split into three EPC packages:

    • Offshore package 1: fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system
    • Offshore package 2: fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system
    • Onshore package: EPC of gas inlet and processing systems at Das Island

    Adnoc Offshore is currently evaluating commercial bids submitted in February for these packages.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16285814/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Contractor wins Oman housing substation contract

    7 April 2026

    Oman’s Public Authority for Social Insurance has awarded a contract for the supply, installation, execution and maintenance of a main power substation for its affordable housing project.

    The contract was awarded to Kuwait-based Al-Ahleia Switchgear Company.

    The project comprises a 400/132/11kV main substation for the Affordable Housing Project, known locally as Al-Masaken Al-Muyassara.

    The tender was announced last November, with the bid envelopes opened on 16 December 2025.

    Al-Ahleia Switchgear submitted another bid in March for a contract to build three 132/11kV main transformer stations for Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW).

    As reported by MEED, the company’s price of KD10.5m ($34.1m) was the lowest of two offers for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract.

    Separately, in December, Al-Ahleia Switchgear submitted the lowest bid of KD33.9m ($110.3m) for a contract to build a 400/132/11 kV substation at the South Surra township for Kuwait’s PAHW.

    The bid was marginally lower than the two other offers submitted by Saudi Arabia’s National Contracting Company (NCC) and India’s Larsen & Toubro.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16285335/main5555.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE reviews $1.63bn fourth federal road project

    7 April 2026

    UAE authorities on 6 April unveiled details of the AED6bn ($1.63bn) fourth federal corridor scheme, a major highway programme aimed at boosting inter-emirate connectivity, increasing road capacity and easing congestion.

    The project comprises a 68-kilometre corridor with 10 major interchanges, four flyovers and six to eight lanes in each direction.

    Officials provided technical updates on the corridor, including revised connection points and coordination with local authorities to finalise route alignments in line with broader development plans.

    Suhail Mohamed Al-Mazrouei, minister of energy and infrastructure, said the programme underscores the central role of infrastructure in the UAE’s development agenda and competitiveness. He was speaking while chairing the first meeting of the UAE Infrastructure and Housing Council this year.

    The council also reviewed progress on federal infrastructure initiatives aimed at improving transport efficiency and strengthening coordination between federal and local authorities.

    Al-Mazrouei said the next phase will focus on accelerating the delivery of high-impact projects to enhance transport system performance and support the shift towards smart and sustainable mobility in line with population growth and urban expansion.

    The council also assessed progress on linking Ajman to the third and fourth federal corridors, which is expected to provide alternative routes, improve traffic flow and further enhance mobility between the emirates.

    On public transport, the council reviewed a study on transport links between Dubai, Sharjah and Ajman to address rising commuting demand.

    The proposed plan includes 10 priority routes incorporating bus rapid transit and dedicated lanes, with connections to key hubs such as the Dubai Metro and city centres.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16285296/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kingdom Holding Company signs Riyadh project deal

    7 April 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Company has signed an agreement with Sumou Real Estate Company under which Sumou will manage the development, marketing and sale of a 3-million-square-metre land plot in Riyadh.

    The scheme is expected to generate about SR4bn ($1bn) in total sales.

    In a Tadawul disclosure, Kingdom Holding Company said its subsidiaries, Kingdom Real Estate Development Company and Trade Centre Company, have appointed Sumou as the exclusive development manager for the site.

    The project is scheduled to be implemented over 36 months, starting once the masterplans are approved by the relevant authorities.

    In a separate stock exchange statement, Sumou said it will be paid 6.5% of total infrastructure development costs and 2.5% of project sales, in addition to the brokerage commission paid by buyers.

    Kingdom Holding Company said the agreement aligns with its long-term strategy for its Riyadh landbank, which originally totalled around 20 million sq m and is being developed in phases.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16284668/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia’s Jubail industrial city hit by missile debris

    7 April 2026

    Explosions were reported in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail industrial city on 7 April. Saudi authorities said the country’s air defence systems intercepted seven ballistic missiles targeting the Eastern Province, with debris landing near energy facilities, primarily in Jubail.

    Jubail is one of the world’s largest petrochemical production hubs, with an annual output of about 60 million tonnes, accounting for an estimated 6% to 8% of global supply.

    The incident places renewed focus on the kingdom’s flagship petrochemical cluster, where majority state-owned Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) is a key investor.

    Jubail also hosts major downstream oil, gas and petrochemical assets operated by Saudi Aramco, US-based Dow and France’s TotalEnergies, underscoring the industrial zone’s international significance.

    Saudi officials said damage assessments are ongoing.

    The developments follow an Israeli strike on 6 April targeting a major petrochemical complex in Iran’s southern Asaluyeh region, described as the country’s largest industrial hub.

    Separately, authorities closed the King Fahd Causeway – the main bridge linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain – early on 7 April as a precaution amid heightened security concerns.

    The King Fahd Causeway Authority said in a post on X that vehicle movement had been “suspended as a precautionary measure” due to Iranian attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    The 25-kilometre bridge is Bahrain’s only road link to the Arabian Peninsula.

    US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran does not comply by 8pm EDT on 7 April.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16283711/main2424.jpg
    Indrajit Sen