Monthly briefing: 20 key developments in the region

25 October 2022

By MEED staff


> Opec and its allies cut oil output

> Saipem wins $4.5bn North Field offshore gas contract

> Qatar to inaugurate 800MW solar farm

> Lebanon and Israel agree maritime border deal

> Aramco launches SME stimulator programme

> Region to be third-largest hydrogen source by 2050

> Egypt ready to supply natural gas to Lebanon

> Riyadh makes debt announcements

> Neom hydrogen project expected to close by year-end

> Abu Dhabi transfers ownership of Etihad Airways to ADQ

> Mipco secures $4bn to refinance Abu Dhabi plant


OIL OUTPUT CUTS

Opec+ to slash production from November to keep prices high

The Opec+ alliance of oil producers has decided to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels a day (b/d) from November to further shore up crude prices, which have fluctuated amid fears that a global recession could curb oil demand. 

The decision, which was led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, was taken at a meeting of the group in Austria on 5 October. 

The move represents a major reversal in production policy for Opec+, which slashed output by a record 10 million b/d in early 2020 when demand plummeted as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, the group has gradually unwound those cuts. Read more

 Tight oil market increases unease for stakeholders



The 33rd Opec and non-Opec ministerial meeting on 5 October. Credit: Opec



US FALLOUT

Saudi Arabia and UAE condemn US warning of ‘consequences’

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have rejected as baseless accusations that the Opec+ decision to reduce oil production from November was politically motivated against the US.

Riyadh has insisted decisions by Opec and its allies were taken “purely on economic considerations”, and said its economic advice had been to resist calls to delay the production cut. 

The UAE issued a statement calling upon the US to refrain from “politicisation” of the Opec+ decision. US President Joe Biden had previously warned that there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia and the Opec+ members for their decision to cut oil output.


EGYPT

World leaders to gather for meeting on climate change

Leaders from almost 200 countries will meet in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on 6-18 November for the UN’s 27th Conference of the Parties (Cop 27) climate change summit. 

Egypt’s International Cooperation Minister, Rania al-Mashat, has previously said that the focus of Cop 27 should be moving from “pledges to implementation”. The conference aims to deliver action on issues critical to tackling the climate emergency, from reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience and adapting to the impacts of climate change, to delivering on the commitments to finance climate action in developing countries.


STEEL

Region could lead global steel decarbonisation efforts

As the global steel industry considers switching to direct reduced iron (DRI) production, the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is primed to start producing carbon-neutral steel, according to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis. 

“The Mena region can lead the world if it shifts promptly to renewables and applies green hydrogen in its steel sector,” says Soroush Basirat, the author of the report. 

“The region’s steel sector is dominated by direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace technology, which releases lower emissions than the … coal-fuelled blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace process used in 71 per cent of global crude steel production in 2021.” 

The Mena region produced just 3 per cent of global crude steel last  year, but accounted for nearly 46 per cent of the world’s DRI production. 

Basirat adds: “Mena has an established supply of DR-grade iron ore and its iron ore pelletising plants are among the world’s largest.”


SAUDI ARABIA

Riyadh announces government spending increase in 2022-24

Saudi Arabia has announced increases in government spending in 2022-24 of more than 18 per cent, which is close to SR175bn ($47bn) or 4 to 4.5 per cent of GDP. 

The rise in spending targets points to smaller fiscal surpluses in the coming years, according to Moody’s Investors Service. 

Increased spending could contribute to reducing the kingdom’s economic reliance on hydrocarbons, provided the spending is successfully deployed to advance government-sponsored diversification projects.

Saudi Arabia’s finances and ambition align


IRAQ

Prime minister-designate vows to act against corruption

Iraq’s prime minister-designate Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has pledged to take action against corruption after authorities announced that ID3.7tn ($2.5bn) had been embezzled from the General Tax Authority’s trust account held by a branch of Rafidain Bank. 

The Iraqi Integrity Commission has said it is opening an investigation into the theft 

On 13 October, Iraq’s parliament elected Abdul Latif Rashid as the country’s new president. He then tasked Al-Sudani with forming a new government to end a year of political gridlock. 

Al-Sudani faces a challenge in the coming weeks as he attempts to appoint a new cabinet of ministers. Members of the Iraqi political bloc led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have said that they will not join the new government.


YEMEN

Houthi rebels attack oil terminal in southern Yemen

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for an attack on a cargo ship at an oil terminal in the south of the country on 21 October. The group said the attack by explosives-laden drones was meant to prevent pro-government forces from using the Al-Dhabba terminal for oil exports. 

The incident occurred in Ash-Shihr in the Hadramawt governorate, and targeted the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Nissos Kea. The Greek owners of the tanker said it was undamaged. 

The internationally recognised government of Yemen said that its forces had intercepted armed drones launched against the Al-Dhabba oil terminal. 

UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, called the attack a “deeply worrying military escalation”. The Yemeni government sent a letter to the UN Security Council regarding the “threat to disrupt international maritime navigation and target ships and oil infrastructures”. 

The attack was the first military action announced by the Houthis since a truce between Yemen’s warring sides expired on 2 October.


LEBANON-ISRAEL

Lebanon and Israel reach maritime border deal

Lebanon and Israel have forged a deal to end a long-running maritime border dispute in the gas-rich Mediterranean Sea. Lebanon’s deputy speaker Elias Bou Saab said that an agreement had been reached that satisfies both sides. 

It is hoped that the new deal will resolve the two countries’ dispute over a swathe of territory in the Mediterranean Sea in an area where Lebanon aims to explore for natural gas, and near waters where Israel has already found commercially viable quantities of hydrocarbons. Read more


GCC

Region faces green hydrogen production challenges

GCC governments including Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are developing zero-carbon green hydrogen and low-carbon blue hydrogen schemes. However, achieving large-scale production, especially of green hydrogen, will be challenging in the coming years, according to Moody’s Investors Service. 

While both green and blue hydrogen will play a role in reducing the global carbon footprint, only green hydrogen has the potential to reduce the reliance of GCC countries on hydrocarbons, but this will take several years, Moody’s says. 

In the short to medium term, GCC countries’ access to cheap domestic natural gas, their carbon capture and storage expertise, and the limited availability of infrastructure make blue hydrogen production a more viable option than the more expensive and challenging production of green hydrogen.

Region to be third-largest hydrogen source by 2050


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MEED Editorial
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  • Dubai property bubble risk rises as price growth stalls

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    Dubai’s residential property market remains in elevated bubble-risk territory after a sharp slowdown in price growth, according to UBS.

    The emirate’s housing boom came to an abrupt halt at the onset of the regional conflict, the Swiss bank said in its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 report. Inflation-adjusted house prices have fallen back to mid-2025 levels, after real growth of more than 10% in 2025.

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  • UAE vehicle manufacturing push moves into production

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    Chinese-linked carmaker Rox has begun vehicle production at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad). The start-up represents the most significant output so far from the UAE’s efforts to build an automotive manufacturing industry.

    The first three Rox Adamas vehicles, carrying the Made in the Emirates mark, came off the production line at the company’s new Abu Dhabi facility in early September. The 10,000-square-metre plant is expected to reach an initial capacity of 20,000 vehicles a year by 2027, rising to 300,000 vehicles a year by 2030.

    The facility can sub-assemble more than 80 types of vehicle components and also carries out complete vehicle assembly, calibration, rain and road testing, and final inspection. Rox moved its global headquarters to the UAE last year and plans to supply local and export markets.

    The project forms part of Rox’s partnership with the Abu Dhabi Investment Office (Adio) and is supported by the UAE Ministry of Industry & Advanced Technology. Kezad Group signed the lease agreement for the facility in May.

    Programme targets

    The Rox plant is the first major output of a state-led strategy that has gathered pace over the past 18 months. Adio launched its automotive programme at the Make it in the Emirates forum in May 2025, with the aim of creating a hub for vehicle manufacturing and assembly, research and development, restoration, auctions and luxury cars.

    The programme is projected to contribute AED100bn ($27.2bn) to Abu Dhabi’s GDP by 2045, attract more than AED8bn ($2.2bn) in foreign direct investment and create 7,000 skilled jobs. Adio has also introduced an automotive artificial intelligence curriculum with universities to develop Emirati talent in the sector.

    In October last year, Adio and AD Ports Group agreed to work with Netherlands-based Stellantis to develop the emirate’s automotive ecosystem. The memorandum of understanding covers expansion into Middle East and Africa markets, an ecosystem for autonomous taxi services, and research into next-generation mobility technologies.

    Under the agreement, Stellantis will explore investment opportunities in Abu Dhabi, while Adio and AD Ports Group will provide market intelligence and logistics support. The announcements did not include a commitment to build a production facility.

    Kezad already hosts smaller electric vehicle (EV) operations. In 2024, UAE-headquartered NWTN signed a lease for a Kezad facility with capacity to assemble 5,000-10,000 semi-knocked-down EVs a year, with plans to expand to 50,000 units in a second phase.

    Trading hub

    Dubai has focused on vehicle trade rather than manufacturing. In November last year, Dubai Municipality signed a partnership agreement with DP World’s Economic Zones division to establish and manage the Dubai Auto Market, a 22 million-square-foot complex with more than 1,500 showrooms that is designed to handle over 800,000 new and used vehicles a year.

    Enabling works are under way, carried out by local contractor Rad International Road Construction, with US-based Aecom serving as project consultant. Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, first deputy ruler of Dubai, said at the launch that the project would foster a cluster of light industries for vehicle assembly and trade.

    The market builds on an established base. Jebel Ali Free Zone hosts more than 940 automotive and spare-parts companies, including Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Nissan and Volkswagen. In 2022, M Glory Group laid the foundation stone for a AED1.5bn ($408m) EV plant at Dubai Industrial City, with a planned capacity of 55,000 cars a year.

    Regional competition

    The UAE is not alone in pursuing automotive manufacturing. In Saudi Arabia, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) owns 70% of Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Middle East, which will roll out its first vehicle by Q4 2026 and targets annual production of 50,000 vehicles. Ceer, the kingdom’s first EV manufacturer, intends to roll its first vehicle off the production line in late 2026.

    Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy aims to attract three to four manufacturers capable of producing more than 300,000 vehicles a year within a single automotive cluster. In Qatar, JTA International Investment Holding said last month that it was working with the UK’s Watt Electric Vehicle Company to set up a factory.

    The two leading Gulf economies are taking different approaches. Saudi Arabia has relied on direct PIF shareholdings in manufacturers. In the UAE, investment offices, port groups and economic zone operators have led the effort, using land, logistics and incentives to attract privately owned carmakers.

    Scaling up is the next test. Rox’s plan to increase output fifteen-fold between 2027 and 2030 will show whether Abu Dhabi’s model can support volume manufacturing. Achieving it would give the UAE production capacity comparable to the level Saudi Arabia is targeting across its entire automotive cluster.

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    Colin Foreman