Cop28 must deliver on promises

25 October 2023

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

 

There is a good chance that the average delegate attending the 2023 Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28) will skip visiting or driving past the key clean energy installations in the UAE.

These include the wind turbines on Sir Baniyas Island, 9.5 kilometres (km) off Jebel Dhana in Abu Dhabi; the $29bn Barakah nuclear power plant in Al-Gharbia, close to the border with Saudi Arabia; the solar farms in Sweihan and Al-Dhafra in Abu Dhabi; and Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum Solar Park, 50km from Expo City, the venue for Cop28.

For many delegates, a trip to these sites is unnecessary. They are aware of the UAE’s green credentials, with the country having ploughed billions of dollars into investments aimed at decarbonising its economy, and more still to come.

For others, however, a single statistic undermines the positive environmental steps that the world’s sixth-largest crude exporter has taken. State-backed energy firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) plans to increase its oil production capacity from 4 million barrels a day (b/d) to 5 million b/d by 2027.

Double-edged strategy

Critics, who include the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, have warned of the dangers of a double-edged energy transition strategy. Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber, managing director and CEO of Adnoc, prefers to describe such an approach as pragmatic.

An agreement requiring developed countries to provide loss and damage funding to countries most affected by climate change was a key takeaway from last year’s UN climate change conference in Egypt (Cop27). However, there was a lack of progress on the phasing down or out of fossil fuels.

The onus is now on the UAE, whose energy transition approach embraces energy sources from fossil fuels to green hydrogen, to deliver a more productive conference.

The hope is that the UAE’s status as an oil- exporting country, and the selection of an oil industry stalwart to lead this year’s negotiations, will not distract from the important tasks that the 12-day event aims to tackle.

Cop28 will see the first global stocktake of the progress countries have made towards their emissions reduction commitments or nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Al-Jaber has also promised to supercharge climate finance and put more pressure on developed countries to fulfil the commitment they made at Cop15 in Copenhagen to mobilise $100bn annually by 2020. This target has been missed repeatedly.

A UAE finance initiative that will provide $4.5bn to help unlock Africa’s clean energy potential was announced in early September and is an example of such commitment.

Al-Jaber’s insistence on putting oil and gas companies at the heart of the climate dialogue is proving both decisive and divisive, however, depending on which side of the climate debate one supports.

“This is your opportunity to show the world that, in fact, you are central to the solution,” he told the oil and gas-dominated Adipec conference held in Abu Dhabi on 2-5 October.

How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?
Cornelius Matthes, Dii Desert Energy

Cyril Widdershoven, global energy market analyst at Netherlands-based consultancy Verocy, supports Al-Jaber’s views. 

“The main Cop28 outcome will be linked to an even and rational transition from hydrocarbons to renewables, taking into account the overall need to cut emissions and [carbon] footprint,” he says. 

The summit will lead to a realisation that hydrocarbons will be a major part of the overall energy scene for decades to come, as the world is not yet ready to be fully electrified, Widdershoven adds.

The oil and gas industry’s increased presence at, and participation in, Cop28 is expected to make an impact.

“There will be huge pressure on the oil and gas industry to participate in the decarbonisation of energy systems, first by eliminating methane flaring and then eliminating emissions from their own operations by 2030,” says Paddy Padmanathan, co-founder and vice-chairman of clean energy firm Zhero and former CEO of Saudi utility developer Acwa Power.

“Abu Dhabi can influence the national oil companies to sign up to this, and Adnoc and Saudi Aramco should be able to influence the international oil companies to sign up.”

Top 10 UAE clean energy projects

Walking the talk

The UAE has shown leadership by being the first country in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to initiate the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies in 2015, Cornelius Matthes, CEO of Dubai-based Dii Desert Energy, tells MEED. 

“It was also the first Mena country to introduce a net-zero 2050 target in 2021, and has an unparalleled track record in building some of the largest solar plants in the world at record-low prices.”

Since other countries in the region have already followed the UAE’s lead, the expectation is for Cop28 to provide impetus for similar initiatives to accelerate.

With Abu Dhabi leading, Zhero’s Padmanathan expects it will also be possible to secure financial commitments
to the Loss & Damage Fund that was established at Cop27.

A declaration from the world’s 46 least-developed countries cited a “strong outcome operationalising the new Loss & Damage Fund” among their key expectations and priorities for Cop28.

Home to more than 14 per cent of the world’s population, these countries contribute about 1 per cent of emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes and most are on the front line of the climate crisis. The majority need funds to deal with the impact of climate change in sectors such as agriculture, while others require funds to develop clean energy sources. 

Tripling initiative

The goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity is expected be included in the agenda for Cop28.

This is in line with the International Energy Agency’s recommendation that the world needs to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 if the 1.5 degrees Celsius cap on global warming that was agreed in Paris in 2015 is to still be within reach.

However, this goal needs a clear mechanism to be effective, according to an expert in the renewable energy field.

“There will be a big song and dance around the commitment to tripling solar and wind deployment by 2030, but given there will be no mechanism for holding anyone responsible for it, and for sure there will be no consequence … I cannot see how meaningful such pledges can be,” the expert tells MEED.

Hard issues 

The wider Mena region, which will share the spotlight and scrutiny associated with Cop28, will have to demonstrate a willingness to talk about the reduction of all harmful emissions, not only carbon, says Matthes.

The easiest option is to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, as they encourage energy waste and profit wealthy populations disproportionately.

“How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?” Matthes asks.

Introducing a cost for all harmful emissions is another opportunity that can automatically improve bankability for energy transformation projects. To their credit, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently introduced voluntary carbon markets, which are seen as steps in the right direction.

Initiatives to boost energy efficiency across the Mena region should also be part of the conversation. These range from efforts to use air conditioning, cooling and water more discriminatingly; electrify transportation; deploy battery energy storage systems; and increase the decarbonisation of the production, shipping, refining and upstream use of oil and gas.

“The region’s waste of energy should be reduced and eliminated before even thinking about how to produce energy,” says Matthes.

Possible scenarios

Despite promises of inclusivity and productiveness, there is a strong probability that most Cop28 negotiators will get only a fraction of what they hope to take away from the summit.

“In a complex system like the Cop negotiations, we need to be realistic about what can be achieved,” says Matthes. “As we have seen in the past ... the same countries always manage to dilute compromises and block long-overdue and necessary developments.”

A likely post-Cop28 scenario could include an agreement requiring the oil and gas industry to do and spend more to decarbonise their products and operations, share in the financial burden of climate change mitigation, and if possible, curb production. This could avoid the use of wording that proved contentious at Glasgow’s Cop26 when a deal that called for the “phase out” of coal-fired power had to be amended to “phase down” following pressure from some countries. 

Climate change advocates will have to live with the fact that fossil fuels, and their entire supply chain, are not likely to be penalised further or disappear. Major change is unlikely until the world is ready to be fully electrified, or until the fear that halting oil production could cause energy insecurity and economic chaos can be overcome.

The Global North countries will have to weigh the best options to reach their net-zero carbon emission targets by 2050 without risking their economic growth. However, countries such as the UK are in the process of pushing back some of their energy transition targets.

Meanwhile, most Global South countries will continue to bear the brunt of the worsening climate crisis, albeit with some support from top carbon-emitting and wealthy nations.

Rightly or wrongly, this could highlight the merit of Al-Jaber’s preferred pragmatic and inclusive approach to Cop28 in terms of technologies, fuels and the representation of sectors.

“A convergence of interests and the dramatic changes to the status of the global energy transition over the past few years … could help countries find new momentum and solutions that might not have seemed feasible in the past,” says Matthes.


Image: Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber engages with Pope Francis on driving positive outcomes for climate action. Credit: Cop28

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Jennifer Aguinaldo
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    The entire architecture of digital commerce rests on one assumption: that a person initiates a transaction – a consumer browses, selects, confirms and pays. Every layer of security, authentication and fraud prevention is calibrated to that sequence.

    Agentic AI, systems that can reason through a complex instruction and plan what needs to happen and act autonomously with minimal human input, disrupts this model at its foundation.

    This is not a hypothetical shift, but one already well on its way to impacting commerce. In the UAE, 70% of consumers already use AI tools when shopping – a 44% increase on 2024 figures, according to Adyen’s 2025 Retail Report. In travel, 68% of UAE consumers used AI to book holidays in 2025 – a 57% year-on-year rise.

    “What makes agentic AI different from the AI tools we’ve seen so far is that it doesn’t just respond or recommend,” says Daumantas Grigaravicius (pictured, right), head of Middle East at Adyen, speaking to MEED. “It can take a complex instruction, reason through it, plan what needs to happen and act autonomously on a user’s behalf.”

    In retail, he says, that means AI agents handling the entire customer journey – discovering products across multiple platforms, comparing prices, applying discounts and completing the purchase – based on a single instruction.

    In hospitality, an agent could plan and book a trip end-to-end, adjusting plans if flight schedules change. In financial services, it could monitor accounts and time international transfers to secure better exchange rates.

    From browsing to delegating

    When AI agents take over the discovery process, the consumer will shift from navigating individual apps and websites to setting preferences that inform how an AI agent acts.

    “The customer journey becomes less about navigating touchpoints and more about setting preferences and letting AI handle execution,” Grigaravicius says. For UAE consumers who already value convenience and efficiency, this is a natural evolution.”

    AI will select products based on data: price, quality metrics, delivery times and sustainability scores – replacing the current advertising, social media and consumer algorithms.

    “This puts pressure on merchants to compete on substance rather than just marketing appeal,” notes Grigaravicius, though there will remain a distinction between the routine and the personal.

    “Consumers will still want to be involved in choices that carry emotional weight,” he says. “What changes is that the mundane, repetitive aspects get automated, which makes the whole process feel far less cluttered and more streamlined.”

    The merchant’s dilemma

    For service providers, the challenge is clear: their offering needs to be easy for AI agents to find; their systems have to connect smoothly; and their value proposition needs to deliver.

    The risk is that if the entire customer journey is contained within a chat interface, merchants could find themselves cut off from the relationship they have spent years building.

    “There’s a real concern that hard-won brands could be reduced to commodities, perhaps just a featureless API endpoint in a bot’s decision-making logic,” says Grigaravicius.

    The industry has confronted versions of this anxiety before. The leap from desktop e-commerce to mobile prompted similar fears of disintermediation.

    “Mobile didn’t replace digital storefronts; it added a powerful, specialised channel for high-intent customers,” he says. “Agentic AI is likely to follow a similar path.”

    One defence is tokenisation. “When an AI agent completes a purchase, the merchant can still recognise the customer through their secure tokenised credentials,” says Grigaravicius.

    “This allows them to apply loyalty benefits, personalise offers and maintain a cohesive relationship across channels.”

    Rethinking identity and fraud

    If AI agents are executing transactions at scale, the security apparatus designed around human behaviour also needs to adapt.

    The traditional fraud-prevention toolkit assumes that personal data alone is sufficient proof of identity, but this assumption weakens when the entity initiating the transaction is an AI agent.

    “The old way of proving identity no longer holds,” says Grigaravicius. The counter is dynamic identification based on patterns of real commercial behaviour – looking at how customers and businesses actually transact, rather than relying on one-off checks that can be faked.

    In principle, AI agents could reduce overall fraud by detecting behavioural anomalies across millions of data points, validating transactions in real time and flagging suspicious patterns before a transaction completes.

    “AI agents don’t fall for phishing emails, don’t share passwords and can’t be socially engineered in the traditional sense,” says Grigaravicius. “So the net effect, if designed correctly, should be a reduction in overall fraud.”

    Liability and standards

    Where a compromised AI agent executes a fraudulent transaction, the chain of responsibility nevertheless needs to be resolved. Grigaravicius argues for a shared model between the AI platform provider, the merchant, the payment processor and the consumer.

    “Where it gets complex is in cases where an AI agent is manipulated through no clear fault of any single party,” he says. “These scenarios require pre-agreed frameworks for liability allocation, which is why industry collaboration on standards is so important.”

    Adyen is a partner of the Google-led Agent Payments Protocol initiative, which includes more than 60 tech and payment firms, and has also joined the Agentic AI Foundation, which aims to bring together companies to shape how autonomous systems interact.

    Two-year horizon

    The next phase – the transition from experimental, single-task agents to collaborative, multi-agent systems managing complex end-to-end processes – is likely to mature within two years, according to Grigaravicius.

    The barriers are structural, with the sector needing robust authentication processes and interoperability across merchant systems, as well as consumer trust.

    For now, the technical talent pool also remains thin. “The demand for people who understand both the commercial and technical dimensions of agentic AI far exceeds what is currently available,” Grigaravicius notes.

    For the Gulf’s service economy, the opportunity is to serve as a proving ground. E-commerce penetration is high, regulatory appetite for fintech innovation is strong and consumer willingness to adopt runs well ahead of global averages.

    The foundational questions – who verifies identity, who bears liability and whether merchants retain autonomy over their own customer relationships – need to be settled before adoption outpaces the infrastructure designed to support it.

    “The rise of agentic AI is not a zero-sum game,” says Grigaravicius. “For agentic AI to become sustainable and profitable, we must build infrastructure that delivers genuine trust, transparency and merchant autonomy – because only that way will we achieve outcomes that benefit all.”

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  • UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination

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  • UAE banks ready to weather the storm

    8 April 2026

     

    Amid unprecedented turbulent geopolitics, Emirati lenders are putting on a confident face. More than one month in from the Iran conflict, Dubai’s largest bank, Emirates NBD, raised $2.25bn in long-term financing – obtaining, it said, the tightest pricing in the bank’s history for a syndicated loan, which aims to strengthen the bank’s liquidity position.

    Bankers view this as a token of the sector’s resilience. “Strong oversubscription from international lenders, together with tight pricing, reflects continued market confidence in the UAE’s financial sector,” said Shayne Nelson, Emirates NBD’s CEO.

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    The events since 28 February have clearly ruffled the surface calm, although the UAE Central Bank has stepped in to provide additional support, announcing on 19 March a resilience package mainly made up of precautionary support measures focused on liquidity and forbearance. This comes amid reports of a sharp decline in liquidity in the banking system.

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    “The central bank has a strong ability to support banks in the UAE, as it has AED1tn ($270bn) in external reserves. It means that it is able to provide support if needed, backed by these reserves,” says Lopatin. 

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    Nonetheless, a protracted conflict would raise asset quality concerns, given the likely impact on companies in sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, tourism and aviation – those most exposed to war-related effects. In the UAE, hospitality, tourism and real estate also have weaker links to the sovereign.

    Disruption to air traffic and tourist inflows is likely to have only a small direct impact on UAE banks, whose lending to the transport (mostly aviation) and tourism sectors is limited. Fitch estimates the two combined accounted for less than 3% of total loans at end-2025.

    “The UAE has always been sensitive to the real estate market performance. It has recovered strongly since Covid, with prices up by 60%. But if there is less economic activity, and less belief in Dubai as a safe jurisdiction, real estate would be among the first sectors to suffer,” says Lopatin.

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    Refinancing risk may also affect the government-related entity (GRE) sector, with these anticipating around $11.5bn in debt maturing this year, according to estimates from Capital Economics, a consultancy.    

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    “The longer the conflict lasts, refinancing becomes a point of stress,” says Lopatin.

    The capacity of the likes of Emirates NBD to raise finance in the most trying conditions suggests a wider resilience that may stave off worst-case scenarios for UAE banks. The next weeks and months will doubtless be testing for them, and the possibility of cash flow problems yielding a worsened loan quality position is one that will be taken seriously. 

    However, the capital and liquidity buffers painstakingly built up since the Covid pandemic mean banks are ready to weather the storm.

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    James Gavin
  • Dubai extends bid deadline for Jebel Ali STP expansion

    8 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for a contract covering the expansion of the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant (STP) phases one and two.

    The upgraded facility will be capable of treating an additional sewage flow of 100,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), with the expansion estimated to cost $300m.

    The scope includes the design, construction and commissioning of infrastructure and systems required to support the increased capacity.

    The new bid submission deadline is 30 April. The original deadline was 2 April.

    Located on a 670-hectare site in Jebel Ali, the original wastewater facility has a treatment capacity of about 675,000 cm/d following the completion of phase two in 2019, combining approximately 300,000 cm/d from phase one and 375,000 cm/d from phase two.

    The main element of the expansion involves modifications to the secondary treatment process at Jebel Ali STP phase two.

    UK-headquartered KPMG and UAE-based Tribe Infrastructure are serving as financial advisers on the project.

    It is understood that the project is part of long-term plans to treat about 1.05 million cm/d once all future phases are completed.

    MEED recently revealed that the municipality is preparing to tender the main construction package for the Warsan STP by the end of the year.

    As MEED understands, the Warsan STP had previously been expected to be procured as a public-private partnership scheme.

    However, the main construction package will now be procured as an engineering, procurement and construction contract.

    The project involves the construction of a sewage treatment plant with a capacity of about 175,000 cm/d, including treatment units, sludge handling systems and associated infrastructure.

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    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

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    The notice was issued on 8 April, with a prequalification deadline of 28 April.

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    The wider development will include sports facilities covering more than 360,000 sq m, including two training fields and fan zones, a closed sports hall, an Olympic-sized swimming pool, an athletics track, and outdoor courts for volleyball, basketball and padel.

    The stadium is set to host the final of the 2034 Fifa World Cup and will serve as the Saudi national football team’s main base.

    US-based architectural firm Populous is the lead architect for the stadium.

    Construction of the stadium is expected to be completed by 2029.

    The stadium will be located next to King Abdulaziz Park.

    Firms submitted prequalification statements for the main design-and-build contract in February.

    Saudi Arabia stadium plans

    In August 2024, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia plans to build 11 new stadiums and refurbish four facilities for the 2034 Fifa World Cup. 

    Eight stadiums will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.

    A further 10 cities will host training bases: Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, Alula, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah.

    There are expected to be 134 training sites across the kingdom, including 61 existing facilities and 73 new venues.

    Saudi Arabia was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup during an online convention of Fifa member associations at the Fifa Congress on 11 December 2024.


    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia

    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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