meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Cop28 must deliver on promises

25 October 2023

Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editor

 

There is a good chance that the average delegate attending the 2023 Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Cop28) will skip visiting or driving past the key clean energy installations in the UAE.

These include the wind turbines on Sir Baniyas Island, 9.5 kilometres (km) off Jebel Dhana in Abu Dhabi; the $29bn Barakah nuclear power plant in Al-Gharbia, close to the border with Saudi Arabia; the solar farms in Sweihan and Al-Dhafra in Abu Dhabi; and Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum Solar Park, 50km from Expo City, the venue for Cop28.

For many delegates, a trip to these sites is unnecessary. They are aware of the UAE’s green credentials, with the country having ploughed billions of dollars into investments aimed at decarbonising its economy, and more still to come.

For others, however, a single statistic undermines the positive environmental steps that the world’s sixth-largest crude exporter has taken. State-backed energy firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) plans to increase its oil production capacity from 4 million barrels a day (b/d) to 5 million b/d by 2027.

Double-edged strategy

Critics, who include the head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, have warned of the dangers of a double-edged energy transition strategy. Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber, managing director and CEO of Adnoc, prefers to describe such an approach as pragmatic.

An agreement requiring developed countries to provide loss and damage funding to countries most affected by climate change was a key takeaway from last year’s UN climate change conference in Egypt (Cop27). However, there was a lack of progress on the phasing down or out of fossil fuels.

The onus is now on the UAE, whose energy transition approach embraces energy sources from fossil fuels to green hydrogen, to deliver a more productive conference.

The hope is that the UAE’s status as an oil- exporting country, and the selection of an oil industry stalwart to lead this year’s negotiations, will not distract from the important tasks that the 12-day event aims to tackle.

Cop28 will see the first global stocktake of the progress countries have made towards their emissions reduction commitments or nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

Al-Jaber has also promised to supercharge climate finance and put more pressure on developed countries to fulfil the commitment they made at Cop15 in Copenhagen to mobilise $100bn annually by 2020. This target has been missed repeatedly.

A UAE finance initiative that will provide $4.5bn to help unlock Africa’s clean energy potential was announced in early September and is an example of such commitment.

Al-Jaber’s insistence on putting oil and gas companies at the heart of the climate dialogue is proving both decisive and divisive, however, depending on which side of the climate debate one supports.

“This is your opportunity to show the world that, in fact, you are central to the solution,” he told the oil and gas-dominated Adipec conference held in Abu Dhabi on 2-5 October.

How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?
Cornelius Matthes, Dii Desert Energy

Cyril Widdershoven, global energy market analyst at Netherlands-based consultancy Verocy, supports Al-Jaber’s views. 

“The main Cop28 outcome will be linked to an even and rational transition from hydrocarbons to renewables, taking into account the overall need to cut emissions and [carbon] footprint,” he says. 

The summit will lead to a realisation that hydrocarbons will be a major part of the overall energy scene for decades to come, as the world is not yet ready to be fully electrified, Widdershoven adds.

The oil and gas industry’s increased presence at, and participation in, Cop28 is expected to make an impact.

“There will be huge pressure on the oil and gas industry to participate in the decarbonisation of energy systems, first by eliminating methane flaring and then eliminating emissions from their own operations by 2030,” says Paddy Padmanathan, co-founder and vice-chairman of clean energy firm Zhero and former CEO of Saudi utility developer Acwa Power.

“Abu Dhabi can influence the national oil companies to sign up to this, and Adnoc and Saudi Aramco should be able to influence the international oil companies to sign up.”

Top 10 UAE clean energy projects

Walking the talk

The UAE has shown leadership by being the first country in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to initiate the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies in 2015, Cornelius Matthes, CEO of Dubai-based Dii Desert Energy, tells MEED. 

“It was also the first Mena country to introduce a net-zero 2050 target in 2021, and has an unparalleled track record in building some of the largest solar plants in the world at record-low prices.”

Since other countries in the region have already followed the UAE’s lead, the expectation is for Cop28 to provide impetus for similar initiatives to accelerate.

With Abu Dhabi leading, Zhero’s Padmanathan expects it will also be possible to secure financial commitments
to the Loss & Damage Fund that was established at Cop27.

A declaration from the world’s 46 least-developed countries cited a “strong outcome operationalising the new Loss & Damage Fund” among their key expectations and priorities for Cop28.

Home to more than 14 per cent of the world’s population, these countries contribute about 1 per cent of emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes and most are on the front line of the climate crisis. The majority need funds to deal with the impact of climate change in sectors such as agriculture, while others require funds to develop clean energy sources. 

Tripling initiative

The goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity is expected be included in the agenda for Cop28.

This is in line with the International Energy Agency’s recommendation that the world needs to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 if the 1.5 degrees Celsius cap on global warming that was agreed in Paris in 2015 is to still be within reach.

However, this goal needs a clear mechanism to be effective, according to an expert in the renewable energy field.

“There will be a big song and dance around the commitment to tripling solar and wind deployment by 2030, but given there will be no mechanism for holding anyone responsible for it, and for sure there will be no consequence … I cannot see how meaningful such pledges can be,” the expert tells MEED.

Hard issues 

The wider Mena region, which will share the spotlight and scrutiny associated with Cop28, will have to demonstrate a willingness to talk about the reduction of all harmful emissions, not only carbon, says Matthes.

The easiest option is to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, as they encourage energy waste and profit wealthy populations disproportionately.

“How can green ammonia compete with grey ammonia if the gas for the grey ammonia is provided at a fraction of world market prices?” Matthes asks.

Introducing a cost for all harmful emissions is another opportunity that can automatically improve bankability for energy transformation projects. To their credit, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently introduced voluntary carbon markets, which are seen as steps in the right direction.

Initiatives to boost energy efficiency across the Mena region should also be part of the conversation. These range from efforts to use air conditioning, cooling and water more discriminatingly; electrify transportation; deploy battery energy storage systems; and increase the decarbonisation of the production, shipping, refining and upstream use of oil and gas.

“The region’s waste of energy should be reduced and eliminated before even thinking about how to produce energy,” says Matthes.

Possible scenarios

Despite promises of inclusivity and productiveness, there is a strong probability that most Cop28 negotiators will get only a fraction of what they hope to take away from the summit.

“In a complex system like the Cop negotiations, we need to be realistic about what can be achieved,” says Matthes. “As we have seen in the past ... the same countries always manage to dilute compromises and block long-overdue and necessary developments.”

A likely post-Cop28 scenario could include an agreement requiring the oil and gas industry to do and spend more to decarbonise their products and operations, share in the financial burden of climate change mitigation, and if possible, curb production. This could avoid the use of wording that proved contentious at Glasgow’s Cop26 when a deal that called for the “phase out” of coal-fired power had to be amended to “phase down” following pressure from some countries. 

Climate change advocates will have to live with the fact that fossil fuels, and their entire supply chain, are not likely to be penalised further or disappear. Major change is unlikely until the world is ready to be fully electrified, or until the fear that halting oil production could cause energy insecurity and economic chaos can be overcome.

The Global North countries will have to weigh the best options to reach their net-zero carbon emission targets by 2050 without risking their economic growth. However, countries such as the UK are in the process of pushing back some of their energy transition targets.

Meanwhile, most Global South countries will continue to bear the brunt of the worsening climate crisis, albeit with some support from top carbon-emitting and wealthy nations.

Rightly or wrongly, this could highlight the merit of Al-Jaber’s preferred pragmatic and inclusive approach to Cop28 in terms of technologies, fuels and the representation of sectors.

“A convergence of interests and the dramatic changes to the status of the global energy transition over the past few years … could help countries find new momentum and solutions that might not have seemed feasible in the past,” says Matthes.

Image: Cop28 president-designate Sultan al-Jaber engages with Pope Francis on driving positive outcomes for climate action. Credit: Cop28

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11210573/main.gif
Jennifer Aguinaldo

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai real estate buys time

    17 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The outbreak of the Iran-US-Israel war has injected a powerful dose of uncertainty into Dubai’s residential real estate market, a sector already bracing for a cyclical cooldown.

    A new report from S&P Global Ratings, published on 16 March, outlines the parameters of the risk.

    The core argument is that while Dubai is not facing an immediate 2008-style collapse, the market’s resilience is now a function of time. If the conflict intensifies beyond a one-month horizon, the strains on prices, investor confidence and developer balance sheets could become severe.

    Momentum stalls as caution takes hold

    The most immediate impact of the conflict has been psychological. According to S&P, official sources are already reporting lower transaction volumes since the war began. The prolonged war could mark the end of the post-pandemic boom, shifting the market into a phase of guarded caution.

    The luxury segment, which has driven much of the recent growth, is seen as the most vulnerable. High-net-worth individuals who relocated to Dubai for its perceived safety and tax advantages may now reconsider their positions, given that the city’s ‘safe haven’ status is being tested.

    S&P’s baseline forecast assumes the most intense phase of fighting will last up to four weeks. Under this scenario, the market will likely experience a slowdown in both volumes and prices, with the declines being more pronounced the longer the uncertainty drags on.

    The report notes a flight to liquidity, predicting that secondary market transactions will become more prevalent as investors seek to offload properties, further suppressing values.

    Apartments are expected to suffer steeper price drops than villas due to a robust supply pipeline.

    Regulatory shields and the threat of a prolonged conflict

    One of the central tenets of the report is that Dubai’s post-2008 regulatory framework provides a crucial buffer. Escrow accounts and stringent payment plans mean that for projects already under way, developers should be able to complete construction, barring a wave of mass investor defaults.

    The rules offer significant protection: developers can retain up to 40% of the property value if construction is on schedule, refund the remainder, and repossess the unit for resale.

    However, this protection has limits. S&P warns that a prolonged war scenario would test these regulations. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supply chains for construction materials could bottleneck, driving up input costs. More critically, the rules that protect developers would only be effective up to a point.

    In a deep and lasting downturn, project cancellations would become likely, particularly for newly launched developments that have not secured substantial presales.

    The analysis suggests that while top-tier developers weathered past downturns with delinquency rates of just 3-10%, the figure for newer, less experienced players could be much higher.

    Rated developers have headroom, but it is not infinite

    The four major developers rated by S&P with exposure to Dubai are Emaar Properties, Damac Properties, PNC Investments and Omniyat Holdings. All of these players enter the period of uncertainty from a position of relative strength.

    The report highlights that years of strong sales have created significant revenue backlogs covering several years.

    Emaar leads with the revenue backlog of about $37bn, equivalent to 2.7 years, while Damac holds about $22bn of backlog, representing 2.3 years.

    Their leverage is low, and cash positions are meaningful. As of 31 December 2025, Emaar held $7.5bn in cash and liquid investments, with $11.7bn as escrow cash balance.

    Damac holds $1.7bn in total cash, including $6bn in escrow, while PNCI and Omniyat hold more modest balances of $600m and $600m, respectively.

    S&P has built “substantial headroom” into their credit ratings to absorb sudden shocks.

    The liquidity assessments for all four companies are adequate, with manageable debt maturities in 2026.

    The critical question is duration. If the conflict grinds on, the buffers will narrow.

    S&P states that in a prolonged scenario, its reassessment will focus on construction progress, cash collection and working capital.

    The financial policies of management teams, specifically their willingness to maintain low leverage and cut dividends, will be key to preserving creditworthiness.

    Capex and dividends under review

    The war will also force a recalibration of corporate strategy. The report notes that investment decisions are likely to be postponed or cancelled. While commitments for projects nearing completion will proceed, companies will prioritise liquidity over new land purchases.

    This is most pronounced for Emaar, which has sizeable capital expenditure plans of AED10bn-AED11bn ($2.7bn-$3bn) annually in 2026-27 for projects such as Dubai Creek Tower, Dubai Creek Mall and the expansion of Dubai Mall. S&P believes a significant portion of this spending is flexible and can be delayed if needed.

    Dividend policies will also be tested. The report expects dividend distributions to remain substantial but potentially adjustable. 

    S&P’s analysis paints a picture of a market that is braced for impact but not yet broken. The fundamentals are stronger than they were in 2008, thanks to tighter regulations and well-capitalised developers with $10bn in combined cash reserves.

    However, the market’s fate is now externally determined. If the conflict remains contained and short-lived, Dubai’s real estate sector should absorb the shock with manageable declines.

    But if the war becomes a protracted regional crisis, the meaningful correction that S&P flags as a possibility will move from the realm of the theoretical to the probable, testing the resilience of both the developers and the regulatory framework designed to protect them.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16012971/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Energy pushes back deadlines for power projects

    17 March 2026

    Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company (SEC), has extended bid submission deadlines for three substation projects in Riyadh Province.

    The utility has pushed back the deadline for the estimated $50m King Khalid International airport 132/13.8kV substation project to 9 April.

    The contract was originally tendered in December, and the deadline had previously been extended to 9 March.

    Local firms Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider are understood to have prequalified to bid for the scheme. 

    The company has also extended the deadline for a $40m engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a 132kV underground cable project in Al-Kharj, Riyadh Province.

    The new bid submission date is 26 March.

    The project covers the installation of underground cable circuits linking a proposed substation (S/S #8721) north of Al-Kharj to BSP #9028. The scope also includes associated civil works and infrastructure.

    Prequalified bidders include Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

    In addition, the utility has extended the deadline for a $50m contract to replace the existing 132/13.8kV substation (S/S #8044) with the new Al-Sharafiyah-2 substation (S/S #8407) in Riyadh.

    The revised submission date is 9 April.

    The scope includes construction of the new substation, installation of switchgear and conductors, and associated infrastructure works.

    Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, Al-Babtain Contracting and Al-Haider are expected to submit bids for the project.

    Riyadh Expo substations

    Separately, Saudi Energy is understood to be moving forward with procurement for a project to develop three 132/13.8kV substations in Riyadh to support Expo 2030.

    The utility is said to have invited bids for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to deliver the three substations along with associated works to connect the facilities to the national grid.

    The project forms part of wider infrastructure preparations for Expo 2030 Riyadh, scheduled to take place from October 2030 to March 2031

    No bid submission deadline has been publicly disclosed.

    Last September, Saudi Energy outlined plans to invest $58.7bn in power projects between 2025 and 2030.

    This includes $36bn and $22.7bn for transmission and distribution, respectively, and is part of long-term plans to meet growing electricity demand while improving grid efficiency and reliability.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16012147/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Fujairah oil hub targeted in fresh drone strike

    17 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) was hit by another drone attack early on 17 March, causing a fire, authorities in Fujairah said.

    No injuries have been reported in the attack, and the emirate’s civil defence teams are dealing with the situation and trying to control the fire, the official Emirates News Agency (Wam) reported, citing the media office of the Government of Fujairah.

    This is understood to be the fifth attack since the start of March that FOIZ has suffered from drone or debris resulting from interceptions by the UAE’s air defence systems, as Iran continues to hit energy and industrial facilities in the UAE.

    Fujairah benefits from its strategic geopolitical location outside the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blockaded in its ongoing conflict with Israel and the US, choking about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

    Consequently, oil prices have soared since the start of the conflict on 28 February. Global benchmark Brent broke the $100 mark on 9 March, for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, rising to a high of $119 a barrel on that day. Prices have dropped since, but it is still trading well above the $100 mark, with Brent recorded at $103.87 a barrel as of 12pm GST on 17 March.

    Major midstream oil and gas companies operate key storage and export hubs for oil and refined products in Fujairah, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), Saudi Aramco – through its subsidiary Aramco Trading – Vopak Horizon, VTTI, Shell, Fujairah Oil Terminal, Brooge Petroleum & Gas Investment Company (BPGIC), Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc), Ecomar, Mount Row and GPS Chemoil.

    ALSO READ: Iran sees economic pressure as key to ending war

    Fujairah is crucial to the operations of Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Onshore, which operates a main oil terminal (MOT) there. Located approximately 300 kilometres north of Abu Dhabi, the terminal facilitates the import and export of various crude oil grades, particularly Murban, from the company’s onshore and offshore fields.

    Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) connects milestone pole (MP) 21 at the Habshan oil facility in Abu Dhabi, where stabilised crude produced from Adnoc Onshore fields is gathered for dispatch, to the Fujairah MOT.

    BPGIC is an oil storage and services firm that was established in 2013 in Fujairah and started operations with a capacity of 400,000 cubic metres spanning 14 tanks. In March 2022, it announced its intention to increase the storage capacity of four of those storage tanks in the first phase complex.

    Separately, in September 2021, BPGIC began operations at the second phase of its Fujairah oil storage complex, adding 600,000 cubic metres of storage capacity across eight tanks. As a result of that expansion, BPGIC’s storage capacity more than doubled to 1 million cubic metres, or 6.3 million barrels, from 400,000 cubic metres.

    BPGIC then undertook a third expansion phase of its oil storage facility, which is understood to have been commissioned in 2023.

    The third phase increased BPGIC’s oil storage capacity by 3.5 times, raising it to 3.5 million cubic metres, or 22 million barrels, and making the firm the largest oil storage services provider in the UAE emirate of Fujairah.

    The third-phase expansion project consists of an oil storage facility with a capacity of 2.5 million cubic metres, a modular 25,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) refinery, and a larger 180,000-b/d conventional refinery.

    BPGIC also co-owns a topping refinery in Fujairah with Nigeria-based Sahara Energy Resources, which produces low-sulphur bunker fuel for ships and vessels. It is understood that the new naphtha upgradation unit could be integrated with the existing topping refinery unit.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16011988/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman signs $2bn real estate deals at Mipim 2026

    17 March 2026

    Oman has signed 17 international investment and development agreements worth over RO762m ($1.98bn) at the Mipim 2026 event held in Cannes, France.

    The deals were concluded through the Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning (MHUP) and partners at the Oman pavilion, and span mixed-use real estate, healthcare, agri-investment and digital planning tools.

    A key agreement was a memorandum of understanding with Turkiye’s Artas Holding for the Al-Khuwair Downtown project, with planned investments exceeding RO150m ($390m).

    In Sultan Haitham City, an agreement was signed with Saudi Arabia’s Retal Development to develop neighbourhoods 3, 15 and 17, covering more than 1.39 million square metres, with a combined investment of over RO320m ($832m).

    Other agreements include Vogue Homes Portugal investing more than RO25m ($65m) in the Al-Thuraya City project, and another residential scheme led by international firms including Avant Garde Properties, F&M International, Metrogramma and The One Atelier, with an investment of about RO50m ($130m).

    MoHUP also signed agreements covering smart planning and project delivery, including advanced 3D digital modelling, with investment exceeding RO408,000 ($1m).

    Healthcare-related agreements include a partnership between local Al-Daham Real Estate and Kubba to develop hospital and stem-cell treatment facilities, valued at RO11.5m ($30m), and a deal between local firm Al-Abrar Real Estate Group and Vienna Hospital & University to operate Ibn Al-Haitham Hospital in Sultan Haitham City, with an investment of more than RO40m ($104m).

    In Dhofar, investments will be made in planting one million olive trees under a usufruct arrangement, valued at RO15m ($39m), as part of agriculture sustainability plans.

    The programme also includes architectural and branding collaborations involving international firms such as Chapman Taylor Architects, 3DTouch Studio, Hawk & Impact Communication and Atelier Entropic, alongside luxury brands including Pagani, Armani and Elie Saab for branded residential concepts.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16011061/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Ashghal tenders northern Smaisma infrastructure

    17 March 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has issued a tender covering infrastructure development in the northern Smaisma area.

    The tender was floated on 14 March, with a bid submission closing date of 12 May.

    The scope includes the airstrip road, coastal road and connections to the existing Al-Khor Expressway, spanning an area of about 18.5 kilometres.

    The contract duration is four years from the start of construction works.

    The latest tender follows Ashghal’s announcement of contract awards for 12 new projects, with a total value exceeding QR4.5bn ($1.2bn).

    According to a notice published on its website, these include six building projects, most notably the redevelopment of Hamad General Hospital, with a contract value of about QR1.1bn ($301m).

    The other projects awarded include the construction of a post office building in Al-Thumama, the renovation of the Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club and the Qatar Equestrian Federation, as well as the implementation of phase four of the Al-Uqda Equestrian Complex development.

    In the roads and infrastructure sector, four projects have been awarded, led by packages one and two of the road and infrastructure development works in Izghawa and Al-Thumaid.

    The awards also include a project covering landscaping and an air-conditioned walkway at Qatar University, as part of broader public facilities improvement initiatives.

    According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, Qatar’s construction industry is expected to expand by 4.3% in 2026, supported by investments in renewable energy and transportation infrastructure.

    According to the Planning & Statistics Authority, Qatar’s construction value-add grew by 6.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. 

    GlobalData expects the industry to grow at an annual average growth rate of 4.6% in 2027-29, supported by investments in construction, energy and infrastructure projects.

    READ THE MARCH 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Riyadh urges private sector to take greater role; Chemical players look to spend rationally; Economic uptick lends confidence to Cairo’s reforms.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the March 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16010960/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal