meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE banks enjoy the good times

13 October 2023

MEED's November 2023 special report on the UAE also includes: 

> UAE construction sector returns to form
> Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> UAE aviation returns to growth

 

Talk to any Gulf banking analyst and the message is unanimous: UAE banks are doing very well, and there are few clouds dampening the outlook heading into 2024.

Nearly all UAE banks have reported strong growth in operating profit on the back of higher interest rates, wider margins, good loan growth and higher fees and commissions.

“Good GDP growth and improved business confidence have also contributed to an overall sense of wellbeing,” says Karti Inamdar, senior credit analyst at CI Ratings.

Fat profits reflect the robust environment for UAE banks. The big four UAE lenders – First Abu Dhabi Bank (Fab), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank, which account for more than three-quarters of system assets – reported a combined net profit of $7.4bn in the first six months of 2023, up from $4.4bn for the same period of 2022.

“Bottom line profit is growing significantly for the four largest UAE banks, and that is a reflection of operating income growth, driven both by interest and non-interest income,” says Francesca Paolino, lead analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.

“That, in turn, has resulted from greater consumer confidence as macroeconomic conditions in the UAE remain strong.”

Region-beating returns

UAE banks topped the GCC region in the second quarter of this year in terms of return on equity, at 15.9 per cent – against a GCC-wide trend of 13 per cent. Net interest margins (NIMs) in the quarter were 3.44 per cent, compared with 2.44 per cent in the year-earlier period.

“Higher interest rates have helped banks in NIM expansion, as more than 60 per cent of banking sector deposits are still low or non-interest bearing,” says Puneet Tuli, financial institutions rating analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

Meanwhile, the cost of risk is reducing thanks to the more benign economic environment and stronger non-oil activity, which has also led to higher lending growth compared with S&P’s original expectations.

According to Fitch Ratings, UAE banks have been well-positioned for higher interest rates and, since 2021, their earning assets yields have risen more than their funding costs due to a still-high share of cheap current and savings accounts (Casa), and a large percentage of floating lending on their loan books. 

Higher interest rates and increased business volumes drove net interest income up 37 per cent in the first half of 2023, Moody’s Investors Service notes in relation to the four largest lenders. Again, interest income growth outweighed funding cost growth, as low-cost Casa accounts remained a big contributor to the banks’ funding.

The higher operating income reflects a combination of interest and non-interest income, supported by greater consumer confidence. Strong activity in non-oil sectors in the UAE, such as trade, tourism and real estate, is a pointer to this effect.

“A driver for UAE banks’ increased non-interest income is their foreign exchange and derivative income. They are also reporting higher fee-generating activity from both retail and investment banking,” says Paolino.

As of June 2023, non-interest income constitutes around one-third of the total operating income at the larger UAE banks. This reflects the large banks seeking to diversify their revenue streams while growing locally and internationally.

Robust fundamentals

Liquidity and capital positions are unsurprisingly robust, providing a layer of insulation should conditions for UAE lenders deteriorate.

The big four UAE banks maintained strong capital buffers with a tangible common equity ratio of 15.1 per cent in aggregate as of June 2023. Strong earnings contributed to higher core capital buffers, more than offsetting risk-weighted assets growth.

UAE lenders’ liquidity has been strong for several years now, given that deposit growth in the country is dependent on energy prices, which have been favourable.

“In the UAE, deposits are not difficult to find, especially if you are willing to pay a price, so it’s the cost of deposits that needs to be managed,” says Inamdar.

“There’s usually plenty of funding available in the financial system when oil prices are high.”

The main issue on the funding side is high customer concentration levels – a side-effect of the UAE’s large number of high-net-worth individuals and wealthy institutions.  

Asset quality has nonetheless improved in the UAE. New non-performing loan (NPL) classifications have declined and loan recoveries have been good, partly due to the improvement in the real estate sector, says Inamdar.

According to Moody’s, the overall NPL ratio declined to about 5 per cent as of the first half of 2023, from 5.4 per cent a year earlier, reflecting the recovering operating environment in the country. Yet this ratio is still one of the highest in the GCC.

“On the one side, you can expect some solid operating conditions to provide some improvements to NPL ratios,” says Paolino.

“But on the other side, UAE banks remain exposed to the real estate sector and also to single borrower concentrations, as well as to large loan restructurings.”

While continued high interest could stoke future asset quality problems, local banks have built up provisions with a coverage ratio in excess of 100 per cent.

Technological dividends

Looking ahead, UAE banks will focus on their digital proposition, meaning investment in innovation and technology will likely continue and operating costs remain high. 

Banks in the UAE are already benefitting from years of significant investment in technology.

“We have seen a reduction of banks' physical footprint, with one of the banks reducing its network from 50 branches to just five without any significant impact on activity,” says Tuli.

“Banks did not experience any major cyber risk issues as well. All this is helping their overall profitability.”

In terms of future growth, some cross-border forays can be expected.

For example, Fab and Emirates NBD have strong regional ambitions that could help grow their individual balance sheets. Their diversified business base – in terms of geography, products and customer segments – renders them less vulnerable to a downturn in any of the markets they operate in.

There are few downside risks facing UAE banks, barring an unexpected drop in oil prices or – notes S&P’s Tuli – a significantly higher-than-expected migration of deposits from non-interest-bearing instruments to remunerated instruments that will reduce the benefits of higher interest rates.

That should leave analysts continuing to tell a positive story about the country’s banking prospects.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11207028/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Executive briefing: US-Israel-Iran conflict

    6 March 2026

    Download the briefing

    In this executive briefing, Ed James and Colin Foreman from MEED outline the key developments in the US-Israel-Iran conflict and examine the potential economic, infrastructure and market impacts across the Middle East.

    Drawing on regional data and analysis, the briefing explores the drivers behind the escalation, the scale of attacks across GCC states, and the possible short- and long-term implications for energy markets, shipping, aviation and regional investment.

    For ongoing updates and verified reporting as events unfold, follow MEED’s mega thread here.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15890483/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Kuwait extends bid deadline for Al-Khairan phase one IWPP

    6 March 2026

     

    Kuwait has extended bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan independent water and power producer (IWPP) project.

    The project is being procured by the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) and the Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).

    The facility will have a capacity of 1,800MW and 33 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) of desalinated water.

    It will be located at Al-Khairan, adjacent to the Al-Zour South thermal plant.

    The new deadline is 30 April.

    The main contract was tendered last September, and the deadline had already been extended once, most recently until 4 March.

    Three consortiums and two individual companies were previously prequalified to participate.

    These include:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) / A H Al-Sagar & Brothers (Saudi Arabia) / Jera (Japan)
    • Acwa (Saudi Arabia) / Gulf Investment Corporation (Kuwait)
    • China Power / Malakoff International (Malaysia) / Abdul Aziz Al-Ajlan Sons (Saudi Arabia)
    • Nebras Power (Qatar)                                                                                                                                        
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    The Al-Khairan IWPP project is part of Kuwait’s long-term plan to expand power and water production capacity through public-private partnerships (PPPs).

    The winning bidder will sign a set of PPP agreements covering financing, design, construction, operation and transfer of the project.

    The energy conversion and water purchase agreement is expected to cover a 25-year supply period.

    Kapp extended another deadline recently for a contract to develop zone two of the third phase of the Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy project.

    The PPP authority is procuring the 500MW solar photovoltaic independent power project (IPP) in partnership with the ministry.

    The bid submission deadline was moved to the end of April, a source close to the project told MEED.

    According to the MEWRE, the total generation capacity currently offered under partnership projects has reached 6,100MW, equivalent to about 30% of Kuwait’s existing power capacity.

    The ministry and Kapp are also preparing to tender the main contract for the 3,600MW Nuwaiseeb power and water desalination plant after plans were approved by Kuwait’s Council of Ministers last November.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15889101/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE utilities say services stable amid tensions

    6 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) have confirmed that water and electricity services in the UAE are operating normally amid ongoing regional tensions.

    In a statement, Taqa said it had activated its risk management frameworks and “power generation, water desalination, transmission, distribution and wastewater services are operating safely and without interruption”.

    According to Etihad WE, services are being delivered with “approved response plans” and “precautionary operational procedures” amid the current regional circumstances.

    Taqa is one of the UAE’s largest integrated utilities, with assets including the Taweelah B independent power and water (IWPP) plant and the 2,400MW Fujairah F3 combined-cycle power plant.

    EtihadWE operates electricity and water distribution networks across the Northern Emirates, supplying more than two million residents.

    Iran’s recent missile attacks on energy infrastructure across the GCC in retaliation for US-Israel attacks have drawn renewed attention to the importance of the region’s utilities sector.

    While power and water assets have largely avoided damage, there have been some incidents affecting broader energy infrastructure.

    Saudi Aramco had shut down its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike, while US cloud provider Amazon Web Services reported service outages after incidents at two data centres in the UAE.

    In January, Taqa and Etihad won a contract alongside France’s Saur to develop and operate a major wastewater treatment plant in the UAE’s northern emirate of Ras Al-Khaimah.

    The Rakwa wastewater infrastructure project is RAK’s first public-private partnership for a sewage treatment plant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15888121/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Drawn-out conflict may shift planning priorities

    6 March 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Across the GCC, power and water networks have largely been planned around steadily rising consumption, driven by population growth and cooling demand.

    A drawn-out conflict in the region may begin to change how planners think about these systems – particularly how they can keep operating if parts of the network are disrupted.

    On Thursday, Iran’s Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said that US-Israeli attacks had damaged water and electricity supply facilities in several parts of the country, while urging the public to be careful with water and electricity consumption.

    So far, major power and water infrastructure in the GCC has largely avoided damage. In the case of desalination, plants of this scale supply drinking water to millions of people, so striking them would immediately affect civilian populations and represent a significant escalation.

    There is also an element of mutual vulnerability. Iran relies on its own electricity and water infrastructure, and Aliabadi’s comments this week suggest those systems are already under pressure. Targeting desalination plants in the GCC could invite similar disruptions at home.

    However, if infrastructure disruption becomes a recurring risk in the region, the question may gradually shift from how to produce more water and electricity to how to reduce immediate reliance on continuous supply.

    Some elements of that thinking are already visible in the project pipeline. In Saudi Arabia, for example, total reservoir storage capacity has reached about 25.1 million cubic metres, with roughly 44% located in the Mecca region and 31% in Riyadh. This provides a buffer that can sustain supply temporarily if desalination production is disrupted.

    Additionally, the kingdom has about $8bn-worth of water storage projects in early study or feed stages. As regional tensions persist, schemes like this may move higher up the priority list.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15887101/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • US oil companies to profit while Middle East exports are curtailed

    6 March 2026

    While the oil and gas operations of the Middle East’s biggest producers are being dramatically curtailed by the conflict sparked by the US and Israel’s attack on Iran, US producers are likely to see windfall profits.

    So far, the list of oil and gas assets in the Mena region disrupted by the conflict is long and includes facilities in all GCC nations, as well as Iraq and Iran itself.

    In addition to oil fields and refineries that have been shut – either due to direct Iranian attacks or concerns over further strikes – about 20 million barrels a day (b/d) of production has been removed from the global market by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Oil price

    The disruption to global oil and gas supplies caused by the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices up by around 15%, with Brent briefly rising above $85 a barrel on 3 March – its highest level since July 2024.

    This has boosted investor optimism about the outlook for US oil companies.

    Texas-headquartered ExxonMobil made $56bn in profit in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine created a sustained period of higher oil prices. It was a record year for the company, and it could see a similar bump this year if oil prices remain high.

    Shale response

    US shale producers are ramping up production to capitalise on higher oil prices, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).

    Recently drilled shale wells could add around 240,000 b/d of supply in May, and an additional 400,000 b/d could be added in the second half of the year, according to an IEA document cited by the Financial Times.

    Gas impact

    The impact of the Iran conflict on liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices has been even more pronounced than on oil, with several gas benchmarks hitting multi-year highs.

    The Dutch Title Transfer Facility rose by 55%, reaching its highest level since fuel markets spiked after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

    One of the key factors driving prices higher was Qatar – the world’s second-biggest LNG producer – halting exports on 2 March after Iranian attacks on several facilities.

    Qatar is expected to take at least several weeks to restart exports from its liquefaction terminals.

    Not only will time be required to ensure the export route through the Strait of Hormuz  is secure, but restarting LNG export terminals is also a gradual process. They require a slow restart to avoid damaging cryogenic equipment, which cools natural gas to around -160°C.

    In addition, LNG trains must be brought back online sequentially; Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub has 14 trains.

    US advantage

    While the world’s second-biggest LNG producer is likely to be offline for some time, the US – the world’s biggest LNG producer – is already operating near full capacity and is benefiting from the higher-price environment.

    Cheniere and Venture Global, the two biggest US LNG producers, have both seen their share prices rise amid the conflict.

    Cheniere shares are up 18% since the start of February, while Venture Global’s share price has risen 12% over the same period.

    The scale of additional revenues earned by US companies – and the revenue losses suffered in the Middle East’s oil and gas sector – will largely depend on how long the disruption linked to the Iran conflict continues.

    If the disruption persists and significant long-term damage is done to Middle East oil and gas infrastructure, US-based oil and gas companies could record another year of record profits.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15886759/main.png
    Wil Crisp