UAE banks enjoy the good times

13 October 2023

MEED's November 2023 special report on the UAE also includes: 

UAE construction sector returns to form
Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28

UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> UAE aviation returns to growth


 

Talk to any Gulf banking analyst and the message is unanimous: UAE banks are doing very well, and there are few clouds dampening the outlook heading into 2024.

Nearly all UAE banks have reported strong growth in operating profit on the back of higher interest rates, wider margins, good loan growth and higher fees and commissions.

“Good GDP growth and improved business confidence have also contributed to an overall sense of wellbeing,” says Karti Inamdar, senior credit analyst at CI Ratings.

Fat profits reflect the robust environment for UAE banks. The big four UAE lenders – First Abu Dhabi Bank (Fab), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank, which account for more than three-quarters of system assets – reported a combined net profit of $7.4bn in the first six months of 2023, up from $4.4bn for the same period of 2022.

“Bottom line profit is growing significantly for the four largest UAE banks, and that is a reflection of operating income growth, driven both by interest and non-interest income,” says Francesca Paolino, lead analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.

“That, in turn, has resulted from greater consumer confidence as macroeconomic conditions in the UAE remain strong.”

Region-beating returns

UAE banks topped the GCC region in the second quarter of this year in terms of return on equity, at 15.9 per cent – against a GCC-wide trend of 13 per cent. Net interest margins (NIMs) in the quarter were 3.44 per cent, compared with 2.44 per cent in the year-earlier period.

“Higher interest rates have helped banks in NIM expansion, as more than 60 per cent of banking sector deposits are still low or non-interest bearing,” says Puneet Tuli, financial institutions rating analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

Meanwhile, the cost of risk is reducing thanks to the more benign economic environment and stronger non-oil activity, which has also led to higher lending growth compared with S&P’s original expectations.

According to Fitch Ratings, UAE banks have been well-positioned for higher interest rates and, since 2021, their earning assets yields have risen more than their funding costs due to a still-high share of cheap current and savings accounts (Casa), and a large percentage of floating lending on their loan books. 

Higher interest rates and increased business volumes drove net interest income up 37 per cent in the first half of 2023, Moody’s Investors Service notes in relation to the four largest lenders. Again, interest income growth outweighed funding cost growth, as low-cost Casa accounts remained a big contributor to the banks’ funding.

The higher operating income reflects a combination of interest and non-interest income, supported by greater consumer confidence. Strong activity in non-oil sectors in the UAE, such as trade, tourism and real estate, is a pointer to this effect.

“A driver for UAE banks’ increased non-interest income is their foreign exchange and derivative income. They are also reporting higher fee-generating activity from both retail and investment banking,” says Paolino.

As of June 2023, non-interest income constitutes around one-third of the total operating income at the larger UAE banks. This reflects the large banks seeking to diversify their revenue streams while growing locally and internationally.

Robust fundamentals

Liquidity and capital positions are unsurprisingly robust, providing a layer of insulation should conditions for UAE lenders deteriorate.

The big four UAE banks maintained strong capital buffers with a tangible common equity ratio of 15.1 per cent in aggregate as of June 2023. Strong earnings contributed to higher core capital buffers, more than offsetting risk-weighted assets growth.

UAE lenders’ liquidity has been strong for several years now, given that deposit growth in the country is dependent on energy prices, which have been favourable.

“In the UAE, deposits are not difficult to find, especially if you are willing to pay a price, so it’s the cost of deposits that needs to be managed,” says Inamdar.

“There’s usually plenty of funding available in the financial system when oil prices are high.”

The main issue on the funding side is high customer concentration levels – a side-effect of the UAE’s large number of high-net-worth individuals and wealthy institutions.  

Asset quality has nonetheless improved in the UAE. New non-performing loan (NPL) classifications have declined and loan recoveries have been good, partly due to the improvement in the real estate sector, says Inamdar.

According to Moody’s, the overall NPL ratio declined to about 5 per cent as of the first half of 2023, from 5.4 per cent a year earlier, reflecting the recovering operating environment in the country. Yet this ratio is still one of the highest in the GCC.

“On the one side, you can expect some solid operating conditions to provide some improvements to NPL ratios,” says Paolino.

“But on the other side, UAE banks remain exposed to the real estate sector and also to single borrower concentrations, as well as to large loan restructurings.”

While continued high interest could stoke future asset quality problems, local banks have built up provisions with a coverage ratio in excess of 100 per cent.

Technological dividends

Looking ahead, UAE banks will focus on their digital proposition, meaning investment in innovation and technology will likely continue and operating costs remain high. 

Banks in the UAE are already benefitting from years of significant investment in technology.

“We have seen a reduction of banks' physical footprint, with one of the banks reducing its network from 50 branches to just five without any significant impact on activity,” says Tuli.

“Banks did not experience any major cyber risk issues as well. All this is helping their overall profitability.”

In terms of future growth, some cross-border forays can be expected.

For example, Fab and Emirates NBD have strong regional ambitions that could help grow their individual balance sheets. Their diversified business base – in terms of geography, products and customer segments – renders them less vulnerable to a downturn in any of the markets they operate in.

There are few downside risks facing UAE banks, barring an unexpected drop in oil prices or – notes S&P’s Tuli – a significantly higher-than-expected migration of deposits from non-interest-bearing instruments to remunerated instruments that will reduce the benefits of higher interest rates.

That should leave analysts continuing to tell a positive story about the country’s banking prospects.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11207028/main.gif
James Gavin
Related Articles
  • Turkish Airlines plans further growth

    1 July 2025

    This package on UAE-Turkiye relations also includes:

    > UAE-Turkiye trade gains momentum
    > Turkiye’s Kalyon goes global
    > UAE-Turkiye financial links strengthen


     

    With a network covering 30 more countries than its closest competitor, Turkish Airlines has been recognised by Guinness World Records for the most countries flown to by an airline since 2012. “Over the past two decades, Turkish Airlines has experienced rapid expansion, becoming one of the world’s most recognised airlines and the largest carrier in terms of destinations served,” says Erol Senol, vice-president of sales at Turkish Airlines.

    The airline’s growth has meant it has become a competitor for the major Gulf carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. Senol says the growing aviation market offers opportunities for all carriers. 

    “The global centre of aviation is moving from the west to the east,” he says. 

    “This change is advantageous for all regions and carriers, provided there is the commitment to serve more effectively.”

    Extending reach

    Like the airlines in the Gulf, Turkish Airlines is based in a strategically important geographic location. “Istanbul is within a three-hour flight distance to 78 cities in 41 countries, making it a central hub for connections between Europe, Asia and Africa,” says Senol. 

    Since 2019, the airline has also been based at one of the world’s largest airports, Istanbul Grand airport (IGA), which has enabled it to continue growing. 

    “The transition to Istanbul Grand airport has marked a new era for Turkish Airlines, enabling the company to sustain its ambitious growth trajectory,” says Senol. 

    “Approximately 80% of its capacity is dedicated to Turkish Airlines, offering the airline the operational flexibility and technological support required to manage large-scale passenger and cargo flows.” 

    The congestion and capacity limitations that previously constrained operations at Ataturk airport were effectively resolved through this relocation. 

    “Aircraft movement capacity increased from 70 per hour at Ataturk to 80 at the initial stage of Istanbul airport, eventually reaching 120 movements an hour with the commissioning of the third runway. This has significantly reduced aircraft waiting times from 5% to below 1%, improving both punctuality and fuel efficiency,” he adds.

    IGA’s larger footprint, which Senol says is “seven times larger than Ataturk airport” has also enhanced passenger services and facilities, helping to improve customer satisfaction and streamline operations.

    Turkish Airlines has also increased its annual cargo handling capacity from 1.2 million tons at Ataturk to 2.5 million tonnes at IGA, with projections of reaching 5-6 million tonnes as the airport develops further. “Turkish Airlines has advanced from ninth place in 2018 to third place in 2025 in global air cargo traffic rankings,” says Senol.

    Supporting the cargo business is Turkish Cargo’s airport facility, SmartIST, which began operations in February 2022. In 2024, cargo volumes at SmartIST increased by 20% compared to 2023, reaching 1.99 million tonnes. Based on freight tonne kilometres, Turkish Cargo says its market share has reached 5.7%, ranking it third globally. Market share rose to 5.8% in the first quarter of 2025. 

    A second phase of expansion will further enhance Turkish Cargo’s operations capacity, allowing it to handle up to 4.5 million tonnes annually. The long-term target is to reach 3.9 million tonnes of cargo by 2033.

    The relocation of Turkish Airlines’ operations to IGA presented many challenges. 

    “The relocation project involved extensive pre-planning and meticulous attention to detail,” says Senol. 

    One of the key challenges was maintaining uninterrupted flight operations during the transition. With real-time monitoring and contingency planning, Turkish Airlines completed the transfer within 33 hours.

    The transition to Istanbul Grand airport has marked a new era for Turkish Airlines, enabling the company to sustain its ambitious growth trajectory
    Erol Senol, Turkish Airlines

    Future growth

    With major airport projects planned at other hubs, Senol offers some advice on how to ensure a seamless transition of operations. “Airlines should invest in full-scale simulations and contingency rehearsals well before the actual move, including load testing IT systems, coordinating logistics and stress-testing operational workflows,” he says.

    “Success hinges on strong coordination across departments – operations, IT, cargo, ground services, human resources, safety and more. Turkish Airlines created interdisciplinary task forces and embedded decisionmakers in each operational unit to allow for real-time problem solving during the transition. 

    “A relocation isn’t just physical – it’s digital,” he notes. “Turkish Airlines used the move to accelerate digital transformation: implementing contactless systems, integrating cargo automation and upgrading passenger services. Airlines should use relocation as a catalyst to modernise infrastructure and adopt scalable technologies.”

    Another factor is having room to grow. “Airlines should ensure their new base is not just sufficient, but expandable,” Senol adds.

    By 2033, Turkish Airlines aims to serve 171 million passengers across 400 destinations with a fleet of 813 aircraft. “Our strategic plan is built on an annual average growth rate of 7.6%,” he says.

    Turkish Airlines currently operates 481 aircraft, comprising 134 wide-body and 347 narrow-body planes. The airline has also placed orders for 355 new Airbus aircraft – 250 A321 Neos and 105 A350s – to support its growth strategy. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14178357/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Qatar records largest local-currency bank bond issuance

    1 July 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Qatar-based Commercial Bank has completed a QR500m ($137m) senior unsecured bond sale, marking the largest local-currency issuance by a Qatari bank to date.

    The three-year bonds, priced with a 4.9% coupon, were issued under the bank’s Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme. The notes are listed on Euronext Dublin. DBS Bank and Standard Chartered acted as joint lead managers.

    The deal attracted strong demand from both regional and international investors, as lenders across the Gulf continue to diversify their funding bases amid high interest rates, Commercial Bank said in a statement.

    The issuance comes as Qatar’s domestic debt market gains momentum, with banks seeking to tap liquidity in both riyal and hard currency formats.

    Commercial Bank is rated A2 by Moody’s, A– by S&P, and A by Fitch, all with stable outlooks. The lender reported a net profit before tax of QR704.3m for Q1 2025, down from QR801.6m in the same period last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14177167/main3557.jpg
    Sarah Rizvi
  • New Murabba signs MoU for project delivery solutions

    1 July 2025

    Saudi Arabia’s New Murabba Development Company (NMDC) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with South Korea’s Naver Cloud Corporation to explore technological solutions for delivering its 14 square-kilometre (sq km) New Murabba downtown project.

    New Murabba CEO Michael Dyke signed the agreement earlier this week during the company’s Investment and Partnership Forum in Seoul.

    According to an official statement: “The three-year agreement covers exploring innovative technology and automation to support the delivery of New Murabba, including robotics, autonomous vehicles, a smart city platform and digital solutions for monitoring construction progress.”

    NMDC is in Seoul to examine technological offerings, assess financing options and showcase the investment opportunities available for the New Murabba downtown development.

    The statement added that the excavation works for The Mukaab, the centrepiece of the overall development, have now been completed.

    The Mukaab is a Najdi-inspired landmark that will be one of the largest buildings in the world. It will be 400 metres high, 400 metres wide and 400 metres long. Internally, it will have a tower on top of a spiral base and a structure featuring 2 million square metres (sq m) of floor space designated for hospitality. It will feature commercial spaces, cultural and tourist attractions, residential and hotel units, as well as recreational facilities.

    Downtown destination

    The New Murabba destination will have a total floor area of more than 25 million sq m and feature more than 104,000 residential units, 9,000 hotel rooms and over 980,000 sq m of retail space.

    The scheme will include 1.4 million sq m of office space, 620,000 sq m of leisure facilities and 1.8 million sq m of space dedicated to community facilities.

    The project will be developed around the concept of sustainability and will include green spaces and walking and cycling paths to promote active lifestyles and community activities.

    The living, working and entertainment facilities will be developed within a 15-minute walking radius. The area will use an internal transport system and will be about a 20-minute drive from the airport.

    The downtown area will feature a museum, a technology and design university, an immersive, multipurpose theatre, and more than 80 entertainment and cultural venues.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14177612/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Levant states wrestle regional pressures

    1 July 2025

    Commentary
    John Bambridge
    Analysis editor

    The Levant countries of Jordan, Lebanon and Syria are all in various degrees of distress, and collectively represent the Israel-Palestine-adjacent geography most severely impacted by that conflict, including in the latest phase initiated by Israel’s attack on Iran. In all three cases, however, recent developments have provided tentative hope for the improvement of their political and economic situations in 2025.

    In the case of Lebanon, still reeling from Israel’s invasion and occupation of the country’s southern territories in retaliation for Hezbollah’s missile attacks on northern Israeli cities, the hope has come in the form of the country’s first elected president since 2022, and a new prime minister. 

    The task before both leaders is to stabilise a deeply fragile political and economic situation while avoiding further degradation to Lebanon’s weakened state capacity. If the country can ride through present circumstances to the upcoming parliamentary elections in May 2026, the possibility could also emerge for a more comprehensive shake-up of its stagnant politics.

    In civil war-wracked Syria, the toppling of the Bashar Al-Assad government in December and the swift takeover by forces loyal to Ahmed Al-Sharaa have heralded a political transition – even if it is not the secular one that Syria’s population might have once hoped for. 

    The new president has already made progress in reaching agreements for the rollback of EU and US sanctions and an influx of foreign investment that his predecessor could only have dreamt of securing. This opens the door to a future of economic recovery for the country.

    The reopening and reconstruction of the Syrian economy also has the potential to benefit the entire region, by rebooting trade and providing growth opportunities.

    For Jordan, the recent conflict in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories has hit tourism hard, while also pitching the country’s anti-Israel street against its US-allied government. Washington’s threats to cut aid and to raise tariffs on Jordan have added to the political strain on the country, and this has only been staved off by in-person overtures by King Abdullah II to the US government. 

    The outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran has only worsened the economic climate for Jordan, with both Israeli jets and Iranian munitions frequenting Jordanian airspace and providing a constant reminder of how close the country is to being dragged into regional unrest. Yet Jordan has avoided conflict to date, and the country’s GDP growth is expected to rise modestly in 2025 as an increase in exports and projects activity stimulates the economy, despite the wider regional headwinds.

    The overall picture for this region is therefore one of tentative recovery from recent shocks, ripe with potential for a better path forward as the Levant rebuilds and works together to overcome the challenges that have so long afflicted the region.

     


    MEED’s July 2025 report on the Levant includes:

    > COMMENT: Levant states wrestle regional pressures

    JORDAN
    > ECONOMY: Jordan economy nears inflection point
    > GAS: Jordan pushes ahead with gas plans 

    > POWER & WATER: Record-breaking year for Jordan’s water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction
    > DATABANK: Jordan’s economy holds pace, for now

    LEBANON
    > ECONOMY: Lebanon’s outlook remains fraught

    SYRIA
    > RECONSTRUCTION: Who will fund Syria’s $1tn rebuild?

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14122966/main.gif
    John Bambridge
  • Jordan’s economy holds pace, for now

    1 July 2025

    Download the PDF


    MEED’s July 2025 report on the Levant includes:

    > COMMENT: Levant states wrestle regional pressures

    JORDAN
    > ECONOMY: Jordan economy nears inflection point
    > GAS: Jordan pushes ahead with gas plans 

    > POWER & WATER: Record-breaking year for Jordan’s water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction
    > DATABANK: Jordan’s economy holds pace, for now

    LEBANON
    > ECONOMY: Lebanon’s outlook remains fraught

    SYRIA
    > RECONSTRUCTION: Who will fund Syria’s $1tn rebuild?

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14177596/main.gif
    MEED Editorial