Stakeholders hope Kuwait can execute spending plans

11 August 2023

This month’s special report on Kuwait also includes: 

> ENERGYKuwait's $300bn energy target is a big test
> BANKINGKuwaiti banks enter bounce-back mode
> INTERVIEWKuwait’s Gulf Centre United sets course for expansion


 

Contractors in Kuwait hope that the country’s recently appointed cabinet will be able to execute spending plans without descending into political infighting.

Earlier this month, Kuwait’s National Assembly passed the 2023/24 budget, projecting the largest year of spending in the country’s history.

The budget projects spending at KD26.2bn ($85.2bn) and revenues at KD19.4bn, with a projected deficit of KD6.8bn. After the vote, the Assembly closed for its summer break to return in late October.

Speaking to lawmakers after the budget was approved, Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Nawaf al-Sabah thanked them for their cooperation and called for more collaboration in the next term when they return.

Key projects 

Joint action by the country’s politicians will be vital in executing spending plans and pushing through strategic infrastructure projects.

In July, Kuwait’s government submitted a four-year programme for major infrastructure projects to the National Assembly. The programme included 107 projects to be completed through to 2027.

Among the projects are Kuwait’s section of the GCC Railway project and Kuwait International airport’s Terminal 2, which is expected to increase the capacity for flights in and out of the country from 240,000 to 650,000 by building three new runways.

Other key projects included in the programme are a scheme to repair thousands of kilometres of roads and the long-delayed Mubarak al-Kabeer port expansion.

The container harbour on Boubiyan Island faces Iraq and is anticipated to have a capacity of 8.1 million containers when completed.

If all the oil and gas projects in the programme are executed as planned, the country’s oil production capacity will increase from 2.7 million barrels a day (b/d) to 3.15 million b/d.

At the same time, natural gas production will be increased from 521 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) to 930 million cf/d.

Inadequate spending

The programme could have significant economic benefits for Kuwait. However, many contractors within the country remain pessimistic about the chances of the plans being fulfilled.

In May this year, official figures issued by government agencies revealed a worryingly low level of government spending on development projects despite large budgets being allocated.

During the 2022/23 fiscal year, only KD470m was spent despite KD1.3bn being allocated for projects.

The expenditure rate of only 36 per cent for the 2022/23 fiscal year has sparked concerns that the recently announced spending plans for the next four years are also likely to fail to hit targets.

Unpredictable policies

Kuwait’s low expenditure rate was mainly driven by political gridlock that has stopped the government from making key decisions and giving the essential approvals needed to execute projects.

Kuwait has had three elections in three years, creating policy uncertainty that has significantly impacted businesses and progress on policy issues.

Due to the political gridlock, major contract awards have been scarce in Kuwait over recent years and dozens of businesses have been forced to take drastic action.

With so few major new contract awards, some international contractors have reduced staff levels in Kuwait, and many domestic businesses have started seeking work overseas in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar.

The government is very worried about potential electricity blackouts if one of the country’s power stations cannot operate for any reason

Power prioritised

While contract awards remain far below historic highs, a number of significant awards in the power and water sector in the first quarter of this year have increased optimism for some stakeholders.

The value of awarded projects in Kuwait for the first three months was KD527m ($1.7bn), more than four times as much as the same quarter the previous year.

This was mainly driven by activity in the power sector, which rose to its highest level in almost six years, according to the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK).

The jump in spending on the power sector came as the government tried to fend off possible electricity shortages.

One source said: “This was a form of emergency spending as the government is very worried about potential electricity blackouts if one of the country’s power stations cannot operate for any reason.”

A sector where major contract awards have remained very low is oil and gas, something that has worried analysts as Kuwait relies on this sector for more than 90 per cent of its revenues.

True test

In June, the prime minister named the country’s fifth cabinet in less than a year. The latest 15-person cabinet retained the prime minister and nine ministers from the previous cabinet in their old posts.

The new cabinet’s similarities with the last cabinet have fuelled concerns that it will be plagued by similar problems when it comes to pushing through spending plans.

However, the slight changes made have shifted the balance of the cabinet in a way that favours cooperation with the parliament, according to some contractors.

If cooperation can be fostered and we see a period where the government approves major projects, it could be transformational for the country.

Ultimately, the true test of whether Kuwait’s policymakers can work together to push through approvals for projects will come when they return to work after their summer break.

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Wil Crisp
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    In the past 24 months, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in particular have set up funds, sometimes in partnership with global firms, to invest in AI and data centre infrastructure, both domestically and abroad.

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    “As the US weaponises its technological advancements, decisions to invest in US-based data centres hedge against the risks of US export controls, positioning developers in proximity to suppliers, ensuring reliable access to components.

    “Yet, this access could become costlier, driven by trade tariff wars, heightened regulations and limited access to grid infrastructure,” Obeid says.

    She adds that the GCC is quickly positioning itself as a global digital hub, driven by cost-competitive energy, advanced infrastructure and strong government backing.

    “Proximity to reliable power supply at an affordable cost, and speed in licensing processes and grid connections, are increasingly becoming strategic factors in data centre deployment – and the GCC offers that.”

    Powering AI strategies

    Almost all of the GCC states have formulated AI strategies that aim to improve operational efficiencies, create jobs and support their energy transition and net-zero initiatives.

    As a result, analysts expect the region to register double-digit annual growth in data centre construction activities in the next few years.

    In a recent update, global consultancy PwC projected that the Middle East data centre capacity could triple from 1GW in 2025 to 3.3GW in five years’ time.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, as of April, an estimated $12bn-worth of data centre construction projects are in the planning stage, in addition to over $820m under bid and $7bn under construction.

    Li-Chen Sim, assistant professor of civil security at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University, says that AI investments are, on the one hand, “all part of a carefully conceived strategy to … diversify out of a hydrocarbons-driven economy, to create new revenue streams from overseas data centres, build new growth sectors, support business requirements and offer more knowledge-based jobs as opposed to traditional manufacturing from domestic investments”.

    On the other hand, AI investments also aim to future-proof the hydrocarbons sector, which Sim expects will continue to be a significant driver of growth, revenue and exports, even as the use of renewable power grows.

    However, the ability of Gulf states to execute their plans for leveraging AI to diversify economies and create jobs –and specifically to address youth unemployment – depends on two factors, according to Obeid.

    The first factor is the ability of countries to advance their AI goals from infrastructure to capital and partnerships. The second involves the speed with which they can build up adequate human capital and a skilled workforce.

    “We will have to see how governments align their educational curricula with the AI policies and electricity infrastructure development,” she says.

    Ecosystem investment

    AI and data centre investments go beyond the facilities that house thousands of advanced graphics processing units, miles of cables and many cooling systems. To run and execute applications – particularly AI inferencing tasks – data centre facilities require a substantial amount of energy. 

    Moreover, data centres in the Middle East and North Africa region face elevated environmental risks due to the high ambient temperatures, which increase energy demand for cooling, as well as water requirements.

    This presents both a challenge and an opportunity, according to Obeid. "The GCC has an opportunity to advance innovation in energy and cooling technologies. Liquid cooling is necessary for AI workloads, and small modular reactors will become central in these data centres.” 

    In January, Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) appeared to show the way with a plan to build a round-the-clock solar photovoltaic (PV) plant combined with a battery energy storage system (bess) facility.

    The 5.2GW solar PV and 19 gigawatt-hour bess plant is expected to deliver renewable power as baseload, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan has said that the project will help power advancements in AI and emerging technologies, and support the delivery of the UAE National AI Strategy 2031 and 2050 Net Zero initiative.

    Sim agrees that renewables combined with battery storage is part of the answer when it comes to building sustainable data centres. “Globally, data centres consume about 1% of electricity, and this figure – together with carbon emissions by data centres – is expected to grow significantly.”

    He notes that Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that global power demand from data centres will increase 50% by 2027, and 165% by the end of the decade, compared to 2023.

    “The other part of the puzzle with regard to sustainability is water consumption by data centres, particularly those in the Gulf, where high temperatures necessitate even more cooling measures.

    “Singapore, for instance, has pioneered integrated water systems that recycle treated wastewater for reuse – and this circular water model could be an option for data centres in the Gulf, instead of using expensive desalinated water,” says Sim.

    As things stand, the GCC can play a key role in the advancement of these and other technologies, along with efficiency measures and the optimisation of server utilisation through AI applications such as digital twins, says Obeid.

    This is just as well, since the region appears to be on the cusp of a boom in inbound and outbound investments that will build data centre capacity abroad and closer to home.

    “We are at a pivotal moment for innovation, where the intersection of digital advancements and energy innovation could position the GCC as a global leader, shaping the future of sustainable digital infrastructure,” concludes Obeid.

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo