meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan economy holds a steady course

7 June 2023

MEED's July 2023 report on Jordan also includes:

> OIL & GAS: Jordan's oil and gas sector battles sluggish phase
> POWER & WATER: Jordan sustains utility infrastructure progress
> CONSTRUCTION: Hospital boost for Jordan construction

 

With attention absorbed by the royal wedding of Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah and Saudi architect Rajwa al-Saif in early June, the release of unemployment figures for the first quarter of 2023 showing joblessness at almost 22 per cent suggested it might have been a good day to bury bad news.

Stubbornly high unemployment is only one challenge facing the Hashemite Kingdom. Rising costs have also roused demonstrations. Last December, professional drivers took to the streets to protest against fuel price rises, a side effect of the imposition of IMF-backed fuel subsidy reforms that resulted in a doubling of prices.

And yet, broader inflationary pressures have been mitigated by significant strategic wheat reserves and long-term gas supply arrangements. The country’s dollar peg has also limited foreign exchange volatility.

Inflation still poses a significant risk, say analysts. “Jordan has been largely shielded from the high inflationary pressures affecting the world. However, the country inevitably faced higher prices as both food and fuel supplies have been affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine,” says Farah el-Rafei, Jordan economist at consultancy Oxford Economics.

“If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment.”

Institutional acclaim

The government’s economic management has won plaudits from the IMF and ratings agencies. The IMF’s most recent assessment issued in May found that despite a challenging global and regional environment, Jordan has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability and access to international capital markets through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.

The fund lauded the kingdom’s post-pandemic recovery, projecting real GDP growth rise to 2.7 per cent in 2023, and inflation for the year to moderate to 3.8 per cent.

This has afforded space to tackle the country’s indebtedness, with ambitions to reduce public debt to 80 per cent of GDP by 2028, from around 90 per cent now. This will be achieved by continued efforts to broaden the tax base, and by improving the efficiency of public spending.  

“The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF,” notes El-Rafei.

“Activity has increased via higher tourism and export revenues carried over from 2022, and this momentum is likely to be maintained in 2023.”

If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment
Farah el-Rafei, Oxford Economics

Persisting difficulties

Despite Jordan’s cushioning against inflation, particularly with food stocks, there is an expectation that rises in prices in the region will inevitably catch up on growth efforts this year. 

Another risk stems from the dollar peg, where higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing.

“While the US Federal Reserve announced a potential end to the rate hikes, leaving the rates as high as they are for an extended period might suffocate investment in Jordan,” says El-Rafei.

Jordan’s external deficit remains high, reflecting the country’s high import burden. The current account deficit widened to 7 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2022. This external deficit is expected to persist in the short term as global inflation stabilises and regional exports and investments pick up. 

Though the IMF recommends continuing the prudent policies that have preserved macroeconomic stability, the government may find it increasingly difficult to increase tax revenues and change the composition of tax revenues. 

According to Nesreen Barakat, CEO of the Jordan Strategy Forum, total tax revenues are still hovering around 15 to 17 per cent of GDP, and most of these revenues (about 70 per cent) emanate from the country’s sales tax.  

“Broadening the tax base is proving difficult,” she says. “In addition, I wonder how the government can improve the efficiency of public spending when a few spending items, such as wages, pensions and interest payments on public debt, account for a large proportion of total public spending.”

Restrategising growth

Another challenge for Jordan is that merely sustaining the post-pandemic recovery may not be enough. 

In Barakat’s view, given the unemployment challenge, much stronger real GDP growth rates are needed. “Here, I am not confident that the Jordanian economy can achieve higher growth rates in the next few years,” she says.

“If we succeed in implementing the Economic Modernisation Vision’s initiative and public sector reform, we might have a good chance in the long term. Within this context, one cannot underestimate the importance of enhancing and increasing local investments as well as foreign direct investment.”

The Economic Modernisation Vision calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73 per cent of the total $58.8bn in investment. 

The three-phase vision aims to increase average real income per capita by 3 per cent annually, create 1 million jobs and more than double the nation’s GDP over 10 years. 

For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction, among others. 

Barakat says the government should not just focus on 'large' PPP projects. “The private sector cannot get involved in large and long-term PPP projects,” she says.

“The absence of an active bond market in its primary and secondary aspects makes it impossible for them (entrepreneurs as well as banks) to get involved. I see the private sector getting involved in 'small' PPP projects. This is where the government should be instrumental in determining these projects and seeking private sector partnerships.”

Green opportunities

Another new avenue of thinking is a greater interest in climate spending.

Last year saw the launch of the government’s Green Economy Financing Facility (GEFF), supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, the Green Climate Fund and the EU, to help Jordan transition to a green economy.

Some $22m of funding via three GEFF deals has been disbursed to boost private sector investment in renewable energy and efficient utilisation of water and energy resources. The International Finance Corporation has also announced a $50m investment issued by the Jordan Kuwait Bank. 

“This is particularly significant as Jordan is considered among the most vulnerable to drought due to climate change, which remains a high risk due to capacity shortages,” says El-Rafei. 

Such long-term strategising will be key to developing Jordan’s economic potential. But in the meantime, there are near-term hurdles to navigate amid a challenging international context that is forcing higher borrowing costs. The danger remains that this could choke investment opportunities that are essential to Jordan’s recovery.  

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10921043/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman awards exploration blocks to state upstream firm

    28 September 2026

    Oman’s Ministry of Energy & Minerals (MEMR) has awarded state-owned upstream firm OQ Exploration & Production (OQEP) exploration rights for three hydrocarbon blocks in the sultanate.

    OQEP, which is 75% owned by Omani state energy group OQ, has secured rights for Blocks 36, 43A and 66.

    Under the agreements, OQEP will conduct geological and geophysical surveys, analysis and modelling, and drill exploratory wells at the three blocks, with the aim of developing recoverable reserves.

    Neither MEMR nor OQEP disclosed the blocks’ locations, areas or prospective reserves in their statement.

    OQEP’s portfolio comprises 14 upstream oil and gas exploration and production assets in Oman, covering onshore and offshore operations and assets held under service contracts.

    Formerly known as Oman Oil Company Exploration & Production, OQEP’s flagship assets include Block 60, which contains the Abu Tubul and Bisat oil fields, and Block 48. The company also holds strategic interests in gas-producing Blocks 9, 10 and 61.

    Offshore expansion

    OQEP has been expanding its offshore exploration portfolio. In February, the company acquired a 30% participating interest in offshore Block 18, following MEMR’s award of exploration rights to a joint venture between OQEP subsidiary OQ Exploration & Production Al-Batinah Offshore and PC Oman Ventures, a wholly owned subsidiary of Malaysia’s Petronas.

    Located off Oman’s northeastern coast, Block 18 covers more than 21,000 square kilometres in the Sea of Oman, with water depths ranging from 50 metres to 3,000 metres. No confirmed discoveries have previously been reported in the block.

    ALSO READ: Concession deals boost momentum in Oman mining

    Under the concession agreement, Petronas holds a 70% participating interest and operatorship, while OQEP holds the remaining 30%.

    OQEP has also expanded its producing portfolio through the acquisition of a 35% interest in onshore Block 27 from Japan's Mitsui E&P Middle East in April. The transaction was valued at RO28.8m ($75m).

    Block 27 is operated by US-based Occidental Petroleum, which holds a 65% participating interest under an exploration and production-sharing agreement valid until 2035. 

    OQEP expects its interest in the block to contribute approximately 3,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d) in additional net production this year.

    In June, MEMR signed an  with OQEP and state-owned Turkiye Petroller AO (TPAO), granting the companies exclusive exploration, appraisal, development and production rights for offshore Block 80.

    The block covers approximately 5,737 sq km in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz and off Musandam governorate. It includes the producing Bukha and West Bukha oil and gas fields.

    The agreement stipulates a minimum exploration investment commitment of $90m over an initial eight-year exploration period. The work programme is divided into two phases to evaluate the block’s hydrocarbon potential.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20063097/main2825.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia qualifies firms for gas-fired IPPs

    28 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has qualified 13 companies to bid for the third round of Saudi Arabia’s combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) independent power producer (IPP) programme.

    The projects will comprise new CCGT plants developed on a build-own-operate basis. Each project will be implemented through a special-purpose project company wholly owned by the successful bidder.

    The qualified firms are:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company [Taqa] (UAE)
    • Acwa (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Bawani Capital (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Jomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • EDF (France)
    • Etihad Development Company (UAE)
    • Kepco (South Korea)
    • Marafiq (Saudi Arabia)
    • Mitsubishi Power (Japan)
    • Nesma Renewable Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • PowerChina (China)
    • Saudi Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    Developers submitted statements of qualification for the round on 23 August, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    Some have already begun “the process of forming consortiums to bid” for the project, with up to three or four groups likely to make offers.

    Also in September, MEED exclusively reported that US-based GE Vernova was close to finalising a turbine reservation agreement with SPPC for the plants.

    The new plants will use advanced H-class or J-class gas turbine technology. Each IPP is expected to comprise two or three gas turbine generators, corresponding heat recovery steam generators with duct firing, and one or two steam turbine generators.

    The request for qualifications released by SPPC in July did not specify the number, locations or capacities of the projects, which mark the next stage of its CCGT IPP programme.

    The first round comprises Taiba 1, Taiba 2, Qassim 1 and Qassim 2, with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    The second round comprises Rumah 1, Rumah 2, Nairyah 1 and Nairyah 2, also with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    Saudi Arabia’s Acwa recently said it had begun initial commercial operations at the Taiba 1 and Qassim 1 CCGT power plants.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser for the procurement; Germany’s Fichtner is the technical adviser; and UK-headquartered Eversheds Sutherland is the legal adviser.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055392/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa completes $2.7bn refinancing of Noor Energy 1

    28 September 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has completed a $2.7bn refinancing of the 950MW Noor Energy 1 project, the fourth phase of Dubai’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park.

    Noor Energy 1 reached commercial operation in 2024. The project company was established to design, build and operate the plant. It is owned by Dewa (51%), Acwa (25%) and China’s Silk Road Fund (24%).

    The project combines 700MW of concentrated solar power (CSP) with 250MW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The CSP component comprises a 600MW parabolic trough facility and a 100MW solar tower.

    It has up to 15 hours of thermal energy storage, allowing it to supply dispatchable electricity beyond daylight hours. Dewa describes Noor Energy 1 as the world’s largest single-site CSP project.

    According to Dewa, the transaction strengthens the project’s financial structure and is expected to generate savings over the operational life of the plant. Saeed Mohammed Al-Tayer, managing director and CEO of Dewa, added that the refinancing demonstrates confidence from international, regional and local financial institutions.

    Abu Dhabi National Future Company (Masdar) is expected to commission the 1,800MW sixth phase of the MBR Solar Park by the end of this year.

    The $1.5bn facility is being implemented by Shuaa Energy 4, a special purpose vehicle jointly owned by Masdar (40%) and Dewa (60%).

    In August, MEED exclusively reported that Masdar is also likely to be awarded the contract to develop the seventh phase of the MBR Solar Park after submitting the lowest bid for the project.

    Phase seven will add 2,000MW from PV solar panels and include a 1,400MW battery energy storage system with a six-hour capacity, providing a total storage capacity of 8,400 megawatt-hours. 

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055739/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • BP to drill new well in Egypt as part of $700m campaign

    28 September 2026

    London-headquartered BP has moved the Valaris DS-12 drilling rig to a new position ahead of drilling the planned Ghorab-1 exploration well, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The Ghorab-1 exploration well will be drilled in the offshore West Nile Delta (WND) concession and is part of a $700m drilling campaign that started in April this year.

    The rig was moved to the new position after drilling the Fayoum-4 well.

    The Ministry of Petroleum said the well had commenced production and was connected to the national natural gas grid, delivering approximately 80 million cubic feet a day of gas.

    Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi held a meeting with officials from BP last week to discuss progress on the drilling campaign.

    They discussed BP’s strategic direction and priorities, as well as its future business plans, according to the statement from the Ministry of Petroleum.

    Increased interest

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to international oil companies.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    London-headquartered Shell has also been pushing ahead with strategic projects in Egypt over recent months.

    In August, BG Delta, a Shell subsidiary, reached the final investment decision for phase 12a of the West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) development project.

    The project will be implemented in partnership with Malaysia’s Petronas and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

    Shell, Petronas and EGPC formed a joint venture called Burullus Gas Company to operate the WDDM concession.

    Phase 12a includes drilling and completing three deepwater gas wells, with production expected to begin in 2028.

    The wells will be tied into existing subsea infrastructure, helping accelerate development, improve capital efficiency and limit the need for additional facilities.

    In April, Egypt’s Petroleum Marine Services (PMS) was awarded a contract for offshore works for phase 12 of the WDDM field development project.

    The contract awarded to PMS uses the engineering, procurement, installation and construction contract model.

    Under the scope of the contract, PMS will install the required electrical, hydraulic and mechanical connections in deep waters to tie three new gas wells into production as part of phase 12.

    The scope also includes the installation of three final triple tie-in spool bases to complete the connection between the wells.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050585/main4559.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Oil company talks shape Libya licensing round

    28 September 2026

     

    Conversations with London-headquartered international oil companies (IOCs) are playing a key role in shaping plans for Libya’s next licensing round.

    Representatives from Shell and BP travelled to Libya earlier this month as part of a Libyan British Business Council (LBBC) delegation.

    During the trip, the oil companies’ representatives met with officials from Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    Peter Millett, chair of the LBBC and a former British ambassador to Libya, told MEED: “NOC is considering its next licensing round and an important part of that process is talking to IOCs like BP and Shell about what kind of terms would make blocks appealing to them.

    “They are asking these oil companies what they can do differently in order to get more investment.”

    Libya’s NOC chairman is Masoud Suleman, who was formally appointed in October last year after serving as acting chairman since January 2025.

    Shortly after he became acting chairman, the NOC announced the results of its most recent licensing round, which was launched in March 2025 and was the country’s first in 17 years.

    A total of five blocks out of 22 available were ultimately awarded in the 2025 licensing round.

    One of the blocks, known as Block S4, was awarded to US-based Chevron, and the production-sharing agreement (PSA) for the block was signed in August.

    Investment drive

    Millett said Libya is seeking large investments from oil companies in order to boost national production.

    “The way that Masoud Suleman is running NOC is impressive and technocratic,” he said. “One of his focuses is making his organisation into a partner that IOCs want to work with.”

    “NOC has the ambition to produce more oil and export more oil, but they need investment in order to do this.

    “They received some money from the central bank for a budget, but it is just a fraction of what they need.

    “There’s a huge requirement to invest in infrastructure, such as processing facilities and pipelines, so they’re looking to outside companies to bring them investment and technology.”

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to IOCs.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely affected a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    Millett believes Libya’s proximity to consumer markets could help it secure investment to develop its oil and gas sector.

    “Oil companies appear to be becoming increasingly willing to provide this investment in the current climate, because it is relatively easy to transport Libyan crude to customers,” he said.

    “The only strait that you might need to go through is the Strait of Gibraltar, and this is easy compared to the problems that countries like Iraq and Kuwait are having shipping their crude through the Strait of Hormuz at the moment.”

    Security challenges

    While Libya’s location offers significant benefits in terms of ease of exports, operating in the country comes with security challenges.

    Over recent weeks, both the Mellitah oil and gas complex and the Zawiya refinery in the west of the country have been disrupted by the actions of armed groups.

    On top of this, a key pipeline was shut down by militants, temporarily cutting national production by 130,000 barrels a day.

    While Libya has significant potential to expand its oil and gas sector, IOCs will likely watch for signs of deteriorating security before committing to large investment projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050217/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp