meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan economy holds a steady course

7 June 2023

MEED's July 2023 report on Jordan also includes:

> OIL & GAS: Jordan's oil and gas sector battles sluggish phase
> POWER & WATER: Jordan sustains utility infrastructure progress
> CONSTRUCTION: Hospital boost for Jordan construction

 

With attention absorbed by the royal wedding of Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah and Saudi architect Rajwa al-Saif in early June, the release of unemployment figures for the first quarter of 2023 showing joblessness at almost 22 per cent suggested it might have been a good day to bury bad news.

Stubbornly high unemployment is only one challenge facing the Hashemite Kingdom. Rising costs have also roused demonstrations. Last December, professional drivers took to the streets to protest against fuel price rises, a side effect of the imposition of IMF-backed fuel subsidy reforms that resulted in a doubling of prices.

And yet, broader inflationary pressures have been mitigated by significant strategic wheat reserves and long-term gas supply arrangements. The country’s dollar peg has also limited foreign exchange volatility.

Inflation still poses a significant risk, say analysts. “Jordan has been largely shielded from the high inflationary pressures affecting the world. However, the country inevitably faced higher prices as both food and fuel supplies have been affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine,” says Farah el-Rafei, Jordan economist at consultancy Oxford Economics.

“If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment.”

Institutional acclaim

The government’s economic management has won plaudits from the IMF and ratings agencies. The IMF’s most recent assessment issued in May found that despite a challenging global and regional environment, Jordan has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability and access to international capital markets through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.

The fund lauded the kingdom’s post-pandemic recovery, projecting real GDP growth rise to 2.7 per cent in 2023, and inflation for the year to moderate to 3.8 per cent.

This has afforded space to tackle the country’s indebtedness, with ambitions to reduce public debt to 80 per cent of GDP by 2028, from around 90 per cent now. This will be achieved by continued efforts to broaden the tax base, and by improving the efficiency of public spending.  

“The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF,” notes El-Rafei.

“Activity has increased via higher tourism and export revenues carried over from 2022, and this momentum is likely to be maintained in 2023.”

If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment
Farah el-Rafei, Oxford Economics

Persisting difficulties

Despite Jordan’s cushioning against inflation, particularly with food stocks, there is an expectation that rises in prices in the region will inevitably catch up on growth efforts this year. 

Another risk stems from the dollar peg, where higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing.

“While the US Federal Reserve announced a potential end to the rate hikes, leaving the rates as high as they are for an extended period might suffocate investment in Jordan,” says El-Rafei.

Jordan’s external deficit remains high, reflecting the country’s high import burden. The current account deficit widened to 7 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2022. This external deficit is expected to persist in the short term as global inflation stabilises and regional exports and investments pick up. 

Though the IMF recommends continuing the prudent policies that have preserved macroeconomic stability, the government may find it increasingly difficult to increase tax revenues and change the composition of tax revenues. 

According to Nesreen Barakat, CEO of the Jordan Strategy Forum, total tax revenues are still hovering around 15 to 17 per cent of GDP, and most of these revenues (about 70 per cent) emanate from the country’s sales tax.  

“Broadening the tax base is proving difficult,” she says. “In addition, I wonder how the government can improve the efficiency of public spending when a few spending items, such as wages, pensions and interest payments on public debt, account for a large proportion of total public spending.”

Restrategising growth

Another challenge for Jordan is that merely sustaining the post-pandemic recovery may not be enough. 

In Barakat’s view, given the unemployment challenge, much stronger real GDP growth rates are needed. “Here, I am not confident that the Jordanian economy can achieve higher growth rates in the next few years,” she says.

“If we succeed in implementing the Economic Modernisation Vision’s initiative and public sector reform, we might have a good chance in the long term. Within this context, one cannot underestimate the importance of enhancing and increasing local investments as well as foreign direct investment.”

The Economic Modernisation Vision calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73 per cent of the total $58.8bn in investment. 

The three-phase vision aims to increase average real income per capita by 3 per cent annually, create 1 million jobs and more than double the nation’s GDP over 10 years. 

For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction, among others. 

Barakat says the government should not just focus on 'large' PPP projects. “The private sector cannot get involved in large and long-term PPP projects,” she says.

“The absence of an active bond market in its primary and secondary aspects makes it impossible for them (entrepreneurs as well as banks) to get involved. I see the private sector getting involved in 'small' PPP projects. This is where the government should be instrumental in determining these projects and seeking private sector partnerships.”

Green opportunities

Another new avenue of thinking is a greater interest in climate spending.

Last year saw the launch of the government’s Green Economy Financing Facility (GEFF), supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, the Green Climate Fund and the EU, to help Jordan transition to a green economy.

Some $22m of funding via three GEFF deals has been disbursed to boost private sector investment in renewable energy and efficient utilisation of water and energy resources. The International Finance Corporation has also announced a $50m investment issued by the Jordan Kuwait Bank. 

“This is particularly significant as Jordan is considered among the most vulnerable to drought due to climate change, which remains a high risk due to capacity shortages,” says El-Rafei. 

Such long-term strategising will be key to developing Jordan’s economic potential. But in the meantime, there are near-term hurdles to navigate amid a challenging international context that is forcing higher borrowing costs. The danger remains that this could choke investment opportunities that are essential to Jordan’s recovery.  

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10921043/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai extends bids for Hassyan SWRO pipeline packages

    7 May 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has extended the bid submission deadlines for two water transmission pipeline packages linked to phase two of the Hassyan seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Dubai.

    The tenders cover the supply, installation, testing and commissioning works for glass reinforced epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipelines. The project will enable potable water to be transmitted from the phase two plant into Dubai’s transmission network.

    The tender bond for the first package is AED9.6m ($2.6mn). The tender bond for the second project is AED17.9m. The deadlines for the two projects have been pushed back to 2 June and 4 June, respectively.

    Local firms Al-Nasr Contracting, Tristar E&C and Wade Adams, along with UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group, are among the companies expected to submit bids for the main contracts for these projects.

    In April, Dewa issued two separate tenders for transmission projects in the emirate.

    The first tender covers the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of GRE water transmission pipelines and associated works at several locations in Dubai. The closing date for submissions is 4 June. Bidders are required to provide a tender bond of AED9m ($2.45m).

    The second tender relates to 132kV cable works and associated modifications at several substations, including the Autosouq, Crystal and Danaro Road substations. The package also includes a new 132kV cable circuit and cable shifting works linked to the DXB INTRL 400/132kV substation.

    The bid submission deadline is 11 June, with a required tender bond of AED17.5m.

    In January, Dewa announced that construction of the 180 million imperial gallons a day phase one of the Hassyan SWRO independent water project was 90% complete.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716599/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Teams form for Qiddiya high-speed rail PPP

    7 May 2026

     

    Firms are forming joint ventures as part of a public-private partnership (PPP) package to bid for the upcoming works on the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    The latest development follows Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP receiving prequalification statements from firms by 30 April for the PPP package of the rail project.

    The consortiums that are planning to bid for the PPP package are:

    • McQuarie / Hitachi / Keolis / Albawani / WeBuild / Hyundai / HyundaiRotem
    • ⁠Plenary / Siemens / MTR / FCC / Nesma & Partners / Freyssinet
    • ⁠Vision Invest / CRRC / Mapa 
    • Mada International / ⁠Renfe / Alstom / Hassan Allam Construction / El-Seif Engineering Contracting / China State Construction Engineering Corporation / Limak Holding
    • Lamar Holding / Talgo / Mermec / China Harbour Engineering Company / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International Airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    Last month, MEED exclusively reported that contractors had submitted their prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package by 16 April.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716585/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractor wins $218m Aramco-backed logistics hub deal

    7 May 2026

     

    Saudi Amana, the local affiliate of UAE-based construction firm Group Amana, has won an estimated SR820m ($218m) contract to build a logistics complex at King Salman Energy Park (Spark) in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

    Asmo, the logistics joint venture of Saudi Aramco and DHL Supply Chain, awarded the contract.

    Asmo received the main contract bids on 18 March, as MEED reported.

    Al-Khobar-based engineering firm House of Consulting Office is the project consultant.

    In February, Asmo signed an agreement with Bahrain‑headquartered Arcapita Group Holdings to deliver the project at Spark.

    The project will feature a 43,000-square-metre (sq m), temperature-controlled Grade A warehouse; more than 3,000 sq m of offices and staff amenities; 5,300 sq m dedicated to chemicals storage; and an open yard covering about 1.2 million sq m.

    Planned for large-scale industrial use, the site is expected to incorporate advanced warehouse and building management systems, end-to-end digital connectivity, automation and robotics.

    It will also be developed in line with internationally recognised sustainability standards, featuring solar photovoltaic readiness, electric-vehicle charging infrastructure and a target of Leed Gold certification.

    The development aims to support the next stage of Saudi Arabia’s logistics and supply chain expansion.

    Under the deal structure, Arcapita will provide funding and retain ownership of the asset, while Asmo will develop the facility and then lease and operate it under a 22-year occupational lease.

    According to a statement, “the scheme will be executed via a forward-funding model, underscoring a long-term commitment to national infrastructure”.

    Asmo added that this will be its first purpose-built logistics centre and one of four strategic locations planned to anchor its nationwide logistics network, aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Saudi Vision 2030.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16715420/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait postpones bid deadlines for four downstream oil tenders

    7 May 2026

     

    Kuwait has extended bid deadlines for four tendered contracts that are all focused on the country’s Mina Al-Ahmadi (MAA) refinery.

    The contracts include a project that has been tendered by state-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) to upgrade water transmission and storage infrastructure at the refinery.

    The contract will use the engineering, procurement and construction model and the tender was originally issued in October 2025 with an initial bid deadline of 4 January 2026.

    The tender has already seen several extensions and the latest rescheduling has set the bid deadline back from 19 April 2026 until 10 May 2026.

    The project is expected to take two years to complete and its scope is focused on expanding water storage capacity at the facility, either through extending existing tanks or building new tanks.

    The winning bidder will also be responsible for developing associated infrastructure and upgrading related systems that transport desalinated water to the refinery, such as pipelines and other infrastructure.

    In its 2024-25 annual report, KNPC said the project will help to meet demand for water at the facility’s refining and gas production units.

    The other three contracts are all maintenance contracts, which were also tendered by KNPC and have had their bid deadlines extended until 30 June 2026.

    The first of these is focused on mechanical maintenance of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) units at the facility, as well as gas liquid production facilities.

    The CFP units were added to the refinery as part of the $16bn CFP, and were brought online in 2021.

    The project aimed to increase Kuwait’s capacity to produce low-sulfur fuels and, as part of the project, the MAA refinery was integrated with Kuwait’s Mina Abdulla (MAB) refinery.

    The project increased the capacity of MAB to 454,000 barrels a day (b/d) and the MAA refinery to 346,000 b/d.

    The second maintenance contract is focused on the mechanical maintenance of refining and production units at the MAA facility. The third contract is focused on workshop maintenance at the facility.

    The MAA refinery has been hit in several attacks during the US and Israel's war with Iran, which started on 28 February 2026.

    The full extent of the damage to the facility is currently unclear.

    Last month, MEED revealed that state-owned oil companies in Kuwait have fast-tracked the award of contracts to repair damage to infrastructure in the oil and gas sector.

    To expedite the award of contracts, deals were directly negotiated with trusted contractors without public tenders.

    The contracts were negotiated by senior officials at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation subsidiaries including Kuwait Oil Company and KNPC, sources said.

    It is not known whether any of these contracts related to repairs at the MAA refinery.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16715383/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Oman signs exploration agreement for methane hydrates

    7 May 2026

    Oman’s Ministry of Energy & Minerals (MEMR) has signed an agreement with Victarens Global Energy for the exploration of methane hydrates in Block 83 in the sultanate.

    Under the agreement, Victarens Global Energy will perform a study of Block 83, which spans approximately 11,000 square kilometers onshore Oman, over an initial period of two years, extendable for an additional two years based on the outcomes of the studies.

    “This step marks the first initiative of its kind in the sultanate to assess the potential of gas production through non-conventional methods, contributing to the diversification and sustainability of energy sources,” the MEMR said in a statement.

    The agreement was signed in Muscat by Salim Bin Nasser Al-Aufi, Oman’s Energy & Minerals Minister, and Kenan Issa, CEO of Victarens Global Energy.

    The project will be implemented in two main phases. The initial investment for the first phase is estimated at approximately $20m, while the second phase is expected to require around $200m, “reflecting the strategic importance of this project in exploring non-conventional energy resources”, the MEMR said in a statement.

    ALSO READ: Oman awards manganese exploration concession deal

    The scope of work on the first phase includes geological studies, analysis and reprocessing of existing geophysical data, and carrying out new seismic surveys to determine the volume and thickness of methane hydrate layers within the study area.

    Based on the results of this phase, the project will proceed to the second phase, which involves installing extraction equipment and testing the feasibility of commercial production.

    Should the project demonstrate economic viability for methane hydrate production, negotiations will be conducted between the MEMR and the company to establish a long-term agreement, including the commercial terms and profit-sharing mechanisms that ensure mutual benefits for both parties.

    “This agreement aims to explore and assess methane hydrate resources, supporting the adoption of advanced technologies in the energy sector and reinforcing the transition toward future energy sources, while promoting innovation and sustainability in the utilisation of natural resources. The agreement aligns with the objectives of Oman Vision 2040, which focuses on economic diversification, the development of the energy sector and strengthening the sultanate’s position as a regional hub for energy and advanced technologies,” the MEMR statement added.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16703851/main1050.jpg
    Indrajit Sen