Riyadh maintains its economic lead
26 May 2023
Saudi Arabia has continued the performance it enjoyed heading into 2023 in the MEED Economic Activity Index, consolidating its lead with a combination of robust growth and sustained activity in its projects market.
Riyadh already enjoyed the fastest rate of real GDP growth in the region in 2022, at 8.7 per cent, and is maintaining 3.1 per cent growth in 2023 despite the current oil economy downsides. Its projects market has now seen two years of consecutive well-above-average activity, with $62bn in contract awards in the past 12 months.
As Brent crude oil prices have slipped and Opec+ production cuts have come into effect, energy exporters have seen their economic fortunes wane to varying degrees. For economies across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), elevated inflation is also straining public finances as countries subsidise key imports.
GCC growth
The UAE is set to maintain 3.5 per cent real GDP growth, to be buoyed by non-oil growth in sectors such as real estate, leisure and tourism. The country is maintaining wide fiscal and current account surpluses and generally strong economic fundamentals across the board.
The only caveat to its performance has been some slippage in project activity, with significant project completions seeing value exit the market above the level of replacement by project awards, which continue to sit well below historic levels.
Qatar is in a similar position. Its strong underlying economic fundamentals are being undermined to a degree by slippage in the country’s projects sector, which has also rapidly shed value as legacy projects have wrapped up.
At the same time, Qatar’s projects market has been bolstered by a surge in energy industry spending, led by gas production maintenance on the North Field.
Kuwait is currently forecast for just 0.9 per cent real GDP growth in 2023, by far the most dismal projection in the GCC.
Despite its sustained fiscal resilience, the country has a weak non-oil economy that is stymied further by the government’s conservative project spending. Kuwait’s projects market shed $70bn in value in the past five years, against less than $20bn in project contract awards.
Oman, though a slightly less solvent GCC member, is set for 1.7 per cent real GDP growth in 2023 and the lowest consumer price inflation rate in the region for the year, at 1.9 per cent. However, the country’s projects market is also tracking downwards at present.
Bahrain, the final GCC entry in the index, has sound growth and low unemployment, but continues to be weighed down fiscally by its debt trap, with the country continuing to borrow even at higher oil prices. Its projects market is also in a dismal state, with contract awards down by three-quarters on the country’s average annual awards in the past five years.
For economies across the Middle East and North Africa, elevated inflation is straining public finances as countries subsidise key imports
Mena performance
Jordan is in the opposite boat from the lower-performing GCC members. Its fiscal ill health is temporarily a secondary concern to the positive growth story in its projects market.
The award of the $3bn Zarqa refinery expansion project, which has been in the works since 2002, is a huge boost to the country’s projects sector. The largest single award in the country ever recorded by regional projects tracker MEED Projects, it alone has made 2023 the best year for Jordan’s projects market since 2014.
Egypt’s 3.7 per cent real GDP growth forecast for 2023 is among the best in the region, but the country is still labouring under high inflation and persistent current account and fiscal deficits. The flip side of this is that the country has maintained its project spending, with an above-average award value in the past 12 months.
Iraq is also forecast for 3.7 per cent growth and has a strong trade surplus at present. While its projects sector has been in freefall this past year, a proposed record budget for 2023 could quickly reverse that trend.
Libya is set for the region’s highest growth rate, in theory, at 17.5 per cent, as the country’s oil industry returns to functionality after a year of contraction. The country remains fragile, with one in two young people unemployed. The country’s projects market is heading in a generally positive direction, however.
Algeria is on track for modest growth, ongoing high inflation and a deepening deficit amid the oil sector downsides. A lack of project activity is also weighing on the market.
Iran is battling fierce consumer price inflation, with a projected rate of more than 40 per cent in 2023, and faces general fiscal weakness amid ongoing sanctions. Project activity, however, has been on the uptick in the country in the past year.
Morocco and Tunisia both continue to struggle with twin current account and fiscal deficits and rising debt. While Morocco has higher growth forecasts for 2023, its projects market has witnessed a steep decline in the past year. Tunisia has weaker growth, but its projects market remains more stable.
The economies of Yemen and Lebanon are meanwhile set to contract this year. Both countries face persisting inflation changes, though Lebanon is dealing with more severe challenges and has 30 per cent unemployment.
About the index MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets. |
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Iraq tenders Baghdad airport PPP project
9 July 2025
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BP signs Libya oil deal
9 July 2025
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World Cup 2030 galvanises Morocco construction
8 July 2025
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Iraq tenders Baghdad airport PPP project
9 July 2025
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Iraq’s Ministry of Transport and the General Company for Airport & Air Navigation Services have released a tender inviting firms to bid for a contract to develop Baghdad International airport on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis.
The notice was issued in July, and the submission deadline is in September.
According to an official statement posted on its website, Iraq’s Ministry of Transport said that 10 out of 14 international consortiums that expressed interest in the project earlier this year have been prequalified to compete for the tender.
The scope of the estimated $400m-$600m project involves rehabilitating, expanding, financing, operating and maintaining the airport. It is the first airport PPP project to be launched in Iraq.
The initial capacity of the airport is expected to be around 9 million passengers, which will be gradually increased to 15 million passengers.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, is the project’s lead transaction adviser.
Iraq is already developing the Baghdad and Najaf-Karbala metro projects using a similar PPP model.
Earlier this month, MEED reported that Iraq intends to retender the contract to develop and operate the Baghdad Metro project, following the award of the estimated $2.5bn contract last year.
According to local media reports, Nasser Al-Assadi, adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani, stated that the previous developers had overestimated the project budget; therefore, the government will relaunch the entire process to implement the project.
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Contractors prepare revised bids for Roshn stadium
9 July 2025
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Saudi gigaproject developer Roshn has invited firms to submit revised commercial proposals by 24 July for a contract to build a new stadium adjacent to the National Guard facilities to the southwest of Riyadh.
Known as the National Guard Stadium, it will be delivered on an early contractor involvement (ECI) basis. It will cover an area of over 450,000 square metres and be able to accommodate 46,000 spectators.
The scope of work also covers the construction of auxiliary facilities, including training academy offices and two hotels, as well as retail and food and beverage outlets.
The firms had initially submitted bids on 8 April for the contract.
The stadium is scheduled to host 32 Fifa World Cup tournament games in 2034.
In August last year, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia plans to build 11 new stadiums as part of its bid to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup.
Eight stadiums will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.
The proposal outlines an additional 10 cities that will host training bases. These are Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, Al-Ula, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah.
The bid proposes 134 training sites across the kingdom, including 61 existing facilities and 73 new training venues.
The kingdom was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup through an online convention of Fifa member associations at the Fifa congress on 11 December 2024.
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Morocco begins Casablanca airport expansion works
9 July 2025
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Morocco’s Office National des Aeroports (ONDA) has broken ground on the new terminal at Morocco’s largest airport, Mohammed V International airport in Casablanca.
According to local media reports, ONDA awarded an estimated MD294m ($29m) deal for enabling works to local firm Societe de Travaux Agricoles Marocaine.
The Mohammed V International airport expansion is expected to be completed in 2029.
The tendering activity for the main works on the new terminal is also ongoing. In April, MEED reported that ONDA had issued a notice inviting firms to express interest in a contract to build the new terminal at Mohammed V International airport.
The estimated MD15bn ($1.6bn) expansion will increase the airport’s capacity to 30 million passengers a year.
In June, 28 local and international firms expressed interest in the contract to build the new terminal.
The new terminal will cover an area of about 450,000 square metres.
It is expected to be ready in time for the 2030 Fifa World Cup, which Morocco is co-hosting alongside Portugal and Spain.
In January, Morocco’s Transport & Logistics Minister, Abdessamad Kayouh, said that the study to expand the airport’s capacity was nearing completion.
The project is part of Morocco’s MD42bn ($4.3bn) plan to expand key airports in anticipation of increased passenger flow for the 2030 football World Cup.
Earlier this year, Morocco announced that it will also build a new airport in Casablanca in preparation for the tournament.
Morocco plans to upgrade several of its airports, including those in Tangier, Marrakech and Agadir, increasing their respective capacities to 7 million, 16 million and 7 million passengers annually.
There are also plans to add a new terminal at Rabat-Sale airport, raising its capacity to handle 4 million passengers, and to increase the capacity of Fez airport to 5 million passengers annually.
The new terminal at Mohammed V International airport will be connected to a high-speed train network that will link Kenitra to Marrakech.
In October last year, Morocco’s national railway operator, L’Office National des Chemins de Fer, awarded several civil works contracts for its Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed railway line.
This project is part of a $37bn strategy to connect more of Morocco’s cities, ports and airports by train. The line will stretch 375 kilometres (km) from Kenitra on the northwest coast to Marrakech in the south.
The project is divided into seven lots, each measuring between 36km and 64km. The rail link will traverse cities including Rabat, Sale, Casablanca and Marrakech.
The link will extend the Al-Boraq railway, a high-speed rail line between Tangier, Rabat and Casablanca. The line started operating in 2018 and was Africa’s first high-speed railway system.
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BP signs Libya oil deal
9 July 2025
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The London-headquartered oil and gas company BP has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), agreeing to consider the redevelopment of two of the country’s largest oil fields and the exploration of neighbouring areas.
Under the MoU, BP and NOC will jointly conduct feasibility studies to assess the technical and commercial viability of restarting production at the Messla and Sarir oil fields, according to a statement published by BP.
The Messla and Sarir oil fields were previously among Libya’s most productive assets.
Under the terms of the MoU agreement, BP and NOC will explore the potential development of both conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources across a broad area of the Sirte Basin.
William Lin, BP’s executive vice-president for gas and low-carbon energy, said: “This agreement reflects our strong interest in deepening our partnership with NOC and supporting the future of Libya’s energy sector.
“We hope to apply BP’s experience from redeveloping and managing giant oil fields around the world to help optimise the performance of these world-class assets.”
BP also confirmed plans to reopen its office in Tripoli before the end of this year.
In its statement, BP said: “The move marks a significant step toward restoring the company’s physical presence in Libya and demonstrates a renewed confidence in the country’s operating environment.”
This announcement comes amid a wider trend of international oil companies returning to Libya. Shell, for instance, signed a separate agreement with NOC to evaluate the Atshan field. Other global players, such as Eni, OMV and Repsol, are also active in Libya once again, reversing the withdrawal that followed the 2011 revolution and subsequent civil unrest.
Libya is Africa’s second-largest oil producer and a key member of Opec.
The country’s output has recently stabilised at around 1.385 million barrels a day (b/d).
With the redevelopment of major fields and new exploration, production levels could rise significantly in the coming years.
The country’s security situation remains difficult, with frequent outbreaks of violence and clashes between militias.
In May, clashes in Tripoli involved heavy artillery and armed confrontations between rival factions.
The clashes highlighted concerns over stability within Libya’s capital and the rest of the western region, which is under the control of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
The Sarir and Messla oil fields, located in the Sirte Basin, rank among Libya’s largest. Sarir was discovered in 1961 and Messla in 1971.
BP re-entered Libya in 2007, when it signed an exploration and production sharing agreement (EPSA) covering exploration areas A and B (onshore), and area C (offshore) with Libya’s NOC.
The EPSA was later put on hold following the declaration of force majeure.
In 2022, Eni acquired a 42.5% interest and assumed exploration operatorship of the EPSA, with BP retaining a 42.5% interest and the Libyan Investment Authority holding the remaining 15%.
In 2023, Eni and BP formally lifted the force majeure, resuming exploration operations in the onshore areas.
Iraq expansion
BP is also pursuing expansion efforts in Iraq. Earlier this year, the company finalised a deal with Iraq’s Ministry of Oil to help redevelop the Kirkuk oil fields.
These projects – encompassing the Bai Hassan, Avana, Baba, Jambur and Khabbaz domes – are expected to yield more than 3 billion barrels of recoverable resources, with the potential for up to 20 billion barrels, according to BP.
The company said: “Together, these developments point to BP’s strategic push to re-enter frontier and post-conflict energy markets, combining legacy assets with fresh exploration.
“For Libya, renewed international investment offers the potential for greater economic stability and a stronger presence in the global oil market.”
READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF
UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA: UAE-Turkiye trade gains momentum> INTERVIEW 1: Building on UAE-Turkiye trade> INTERVIEW 2: Turkiye's Kalyon goes global> INTERVIEW 3: Strengthening UAE-Turkiye financial links> INTERVIEW 4: Turkish Airlines plans further growth> CURRENT AFFAIRS: Middle East tensions could reduce gas investments> GCC REAL ESTATE: Gulf real estate faces a more nuanced reality> PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses> INTERVIEW 5: Hassan Allam eyes role in Saudi Arabia’s transformation> INTERVIEW 6: Aseer region seeks new investments for Saudi Arabia> LEADERSHIP: Nuclear power makes a global comeback> LEVANT MARKET FOCUS: Levant states wrestle regional pressures> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb> CONTRACT AWARDS: Mena contract award activity remains subdued> ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects> OPINION: A farcical tragedy that no one can endTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14227432/main.png -
World Cup 2030 galvanises Morocco construction
8 July 2025
Morocco’s construction sector is gearing up for billions of dollars in projects as the North African nation continues to award contracts for building infrastructure for the 2030 Fifa World Cup, which it is co-hosting with Spain and Portugal.
Experience from past tournaments suggests that governments often leverage such events to advance broader economic goals. The World Cup brings fans from around the globe to enjoy a month-long festival of football.
After the 2022 tournament, Qatar reported that more than 1.4 million fans had visited the country during the event.
Morocco has made a strong head start in ensuring that the necessary infrastructure is ready for the tournament. According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, 2024 was the best year in the past decade for construction and transport contract awards in Morocco, with contracts worth over $3.6bn signed with local construction firms and international companies from South Korea, China, France and Spain.
So far this year, Morocco has already awarded $1.6bn-worth of contracts and appears to be on track to surpass last year’s figures. Projects worth over $3.5bn are currently in the bidding stage and are expected to be awarded by the end of the year.
Infrastructure development
Morocco was effectively confirmed as a host nation for the 2030 Fifa World Cup – alongside Spain and Portugal – in October 2023, after the trio emerged as the sole bidders for the event. The official selection was announced in December of the same year.
To prepare for the tournament, the Moroccan government quickly drafted plans to upgrade nationwide infrastructure, including airports, roads and the railway network.
Following the award of multimillion-dollar civil works contracts for the Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed railway network last year, Morocco’s minister of transport and logistics unveiled a MD96bn ($9.5bn) investment plan earlier this year to transform the country’s rail infrastructure by 2030.
In another major development, the ministry announced in January that Morocco will invest approximately MD42bn ($4.1bn) in airport expansion projects by 2030. The most immediate of these is the construction of a new terminal at the country’s largest airport – Mohammed V International airport in Casablanca – at an estimated cost of MD15bn ($1.6bn).
In June, 28 local and international firms expressed interest in the contract to build the new terminal.
The planned expansion will increase the airport’s capacity to 30 million passengers a year.
Additional investments are planned to modernise other airports – including those in Rabat, Tangier, Marrakesh, Fez, Tetouan and Agadir – in anticipation of increased passenger traffic during the 2030 World Cup.
Significant funding is also being directed towards improving the country’s road network. In March, Morocco announced plans to invest MD12.5bn ($1.2bn) in highway development projects across the country.
This announcement followed the award of approximately MD5bn ($540m) in contracts for nine construction packages related to the Rabat-Casablanca continental expressway.
This project is part of Morocco’s broader plan to upgrade public infrastructure in preparation for co-hosting the World Cup. The programme includes the expansion of over 1,000 kilometres of highways.
Stadium upgrades
Morocco began construction on its Grand Stade Hassan II stadium last year, awarding a $35m early works contract to local firm Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc (SGTM). The stadium, with an estimated capacity of 115,000 seats, will be one of the venues for the 2030 Fifa World Cup.
In June, the client awarded a further $320m contract for the next phase of construction. The contract went to a joint venture of Travaux Generaux de Construction de Casablanca and SGTM.
The stadium is being built on a 100-hectare site in the El-Mansouria area of Benslimane Province, 38 kilometres north of Casablanca.
Several other stadium projects are also in the pipeline for upgrades ahead of the tournament. These include the renovation of six existing stadiums in Agadir, Casablanca, Fez, Marrakech, Rabat and Tangier.
Additionally, Morocco’s construction sector has a pipeline of over $2bn-worth of projects, with major developments in the hospitality sector. Notable schemes include the St Regis Marrakech Resort, Citadines Bab Hotel in Tangier, Hampton by Hilton Fes Golf and the Mogador Resort.
With construction and transport projects worth over $17bn currently in the pipeline, Morocco is expected to invest tens of billions of dollars in the near term to ensure the necessary infrastructure is in place for the 2030 Fifa World Cup.
The scale of the construction programme is set to provide substantial opportunities for contractors in the coming years. The initiative will also require close collaboration between local firms and experienced international contractors willing to participate in the effort.
MEED’s August 2025 report on the Maghreb also includes:
> ECONOMY: Maghreb economies battle trading headwinds
> INDUSTRY: Algeria’s industrial strategy builds momentum
> POWER & WATER: Slow year for Maghreb power and water awardshttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14220755/main.gif