Middle East defence spending accelerates

7 May 2023

 

Global military spending reached a record high of $2.24tn in 2022, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year, according to newly compiled data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as the Ukraine war and tensions in East Asia prompted governments to ramp up their investment in equipment.

It marks the eighth consecutive year of growth in global defence expenditure. The sharpest rise was in Europe, where there was a 13 per cent increase in spending, but the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region was not far behind, with an 11.2 per cent rise on the previous year.

“The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,” said Nan Tian, a senior researcher with SIPRI’s military expenditure and arms production programme.

“States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.”

Rising regional outlay

The rise in the Mena region’s total to $168bn was mostly due to an increase in spending by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon and Iran.

As has long been the case, Saudi Arabia dominated the picture, with a defence outlay of $75bn in 2022 – up 16 per cent on the year before and its first increase since 2018.

Military spending data for the Middle East is often opaque. Other large spenders, according to SIPRI’s database, include Israel ($23.4bn), Qatar ($15.4bn), Algeria ($9.1bn), Kuwait ($8.2bn), Iran ($6.8bn) and Oman ($5.8bn).

However, the institute has no estimates for a number of other countries, most notably the UAE. Its most recent figure for the UAE is for 2014, at which point the defence budget was an estimated $22.8bn, the region’s second-biggest after Saudi Arabia that year.

There are also no current estimates for defence spending by the countries suffering the greatest instability, including Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

Others have drawn up figures for the UAE, though. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated the UAE’s defence spend was $20.4bn last year in its recently published Military Balance 2023 report. That marked a 6 per cent rise on the previous year’s estimate.

While the UAE may not have the largest budget in the region, IISS says its armed forces are “arguably the best trained and most capable of all GCC states”.

Unclear Iranian picture

The outlay by Iran is also a matter of some debate, given the questions over the value of the rial and the country’s high inflation rate of around 40 per cent.

SIPRI says that, in local currency terms, Iran’s defence spending grew by 38 per cent to IR1,988tn in 2022. That is equivalent to some $46.9bn at the government’s official exchange rate, but far less at the open market rate used by SIPRI.

Inflationary pressures have become a common concern for countries around the world, even if few are having to cope with price rises as rapid as in Iran. Many Western countries are also dealing with an energy supply crisis due to the war in Ukraine, which has led to prices spiking upwards and sanctions being imposed on Moscow.

The Middle East’s oil exporters have benefitted from elevated oil prices, making it easier to afford the rise in defence spending.

However, the most notable direct consequence of the conflict in Ukraine for the Middle East has been the surge in military cooperation that has followed between Russia and Iran. Moscow’s failure to quickly take control of Ukraine has led to a drawn-out conflict and, as its weapons inventory has become depleted, it has imported drones from Iran to fill in some of the gaps.

That cooperation may yet extend in the other direction, with Iranian media reporting in March a potential deal for Tehran to receive Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Iran will also have gained useful information about the performance of its Shahed 131, Shahed 136 and Mohajer-6 drones in the war.

Lingering Gulf concerns

Such developments will likely concern other Gulf governments, even if regional tensions have eased somewhat due to the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, announced via a China-brokered agreement in March.

That fits into a broader regional trend for de-escalation and diplomatic advances. Recent talks between Saudi officials and Yemen’s Houthi rebels in Sanaa could yet pave the way to resolving that conflict – further discussions between the two sides are due to take place in May, possibly in Muscat.

The levels of violence in Libya and Syria have also been on a downward trajectory over the past year, but both remain susceptible to further outbreaks of fighting, as does Iraq.

Elsewhere, though, relations between Algeria and Morocco remain problematic, and the prospects of any peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians look as distant as ever with the hardline government of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in office.

Any reduction in regional tensions will be a welcome development given the high burden of defence spending on local economies. As IISS points out, many Mena countries’ defence budgets are very large relative to the size of their economies.

As has long been the case, Oman spends more as a proportion of its GDP than any other country in the region, with its 2022 outlay equivalent to 5.9 per cent of GDP, according to IISS calculations.

It is followed by Kuwait at 5 per cent and Saudi Arabia at 4.5 per cent.

The average for the region is 3.8 per cent of GDP, more than double the global average of 1.7 per cent. The overall trend for rising budgets means that the economic burden is unlikely to fall away any time soon.

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Dominic Dudley
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    If 2025 was marked by the advent of reform in the shape of public debt and mortgage laws, 2026 has been a year of resilience in the face of sharp shifts in the operating environment.

    Like their peers across the GCC, Kuwait’s banks have stood out this year for their crisis preparedness. With Kuwait facing sustained attacks from Iran – testing a hydrocarbons-based economy that is uniquely vulnerable to such shocks – banks are focusing on maintaining durability under especially challenging conditions.

    The sector entered 2026 in a relatively strong position. As of March 2026 – one month into the US-Israeli campaign against Iran – the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at a creditable 1.7%. A capital adequacy ratio of 17.5% in Q1 is another sign of resilience, underscoring banks’ capacity to absorb unexpected losses.

    Kuwaiti banks’ reserve coverage stands at 223% of problem loans, one of the highest levels of loan-loss allowance coverage for Stage 3 exposures in the region. This is in large part due to the Central Bank of Kuwait’s (CBK’s) strict regulatory requirements.

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    Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required
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    Bank dominance

    Banks also remain central to Kuwait’s economy. As the Washington-based IMF has noted, financial intermediation is overwhelmingly bank-based, with domestic currency bond and equity markets underdeveloped by emerging-market standards.

    “Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required,” says Abdulla Al-Hammadi, an analyst at Moody’s.

    Bank assets reached 250% of GDP in 2024 – among the highest in the GCC, according to the IMF. This is supported by strong balance sheets, high liquidity and a large Islamic finance segment. Kuwait Finance House, Boubyan Bank, Kuwait International Bank and Warba Bank – the four main Islamic lenders – together account for KD53bn ($172bn), or 51% of total banking sector assets.

    Early 2026 performance metrics show a solid rise in assets at listed Kuwaiti banks, growing by 12.5% year-on-year to KD130.82bn ($366.4bn) in Q1. Net profits increased by a smaller margin, 1.1%, to KD382.96m ($1.07bn) in the same quarter, according to KPMG.

    National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the largest bank by assets, reported net profit of KD324.8m ($1.06bn) for the first half of 2026, a 3% year-on-year increase. Despite the impact of the conflict, the second quarter saw profits rise 4.5% to KD181.2m ($588.4m).

    Ratings support

    Ratings agencies have retained their confidence in Kuwaiti banks. In a rating action announced on 18 June, Moody’s affirmed the long-term deposit ratings of eight Kuwaiti banks, reflecting their resilient credit profiles supported by strong capital, provisioning reserves and liquidity buffers.

    Under Moody’s central scenario – which assumes a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn and persistently high and volatile energy prices – the expected deterioration in operating conditions remains within the absorption capacity of these banks’ baseline credit assessments.

    Kuwait’s strong sovereign ratings and high level of system support provide additional comfort. Government financial assets are estimated at more than 475% of GDP, while the debt burden was around 19% of GDP as of March 2026 – factors that underpin the government’s capacity to support the banking system in the event of stress.

    Nor is Kuwait at particular risk of external funding outflows. According to S&P Global, Kuwait has a comfortable net external asset position that mitigates such risks.

    “Depositor confidence has remained stable. The banks continue to access international interbank markets,” says Al-Hammadi. “Their liquidity buffers will support their ability to continue lending and absorb any potential shock.”

    Regulatory response

    Regulatory supervision is another core strength. The CBK has a reputation for hands-on oversight of the banking sector. In March, it rolled out a stimulus package to encourage banks to lend as the Iran conflict buffeted the region. The measures included a temporary easing of macroprudential requirements, with the minimum liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio reduced from 100% to 80%. The minimum regulatory ratio was cut from 18% to 15%.

    These measures appear to have had the intended effect. According to NBK’s research arm, domestic credit growth picked up in May, rising by half a percentage point over the previous month to 6.7% in year-on-year terms. Signs of stronger business lending, with gains across services, trade and real estate, will have been particularly welcome.

    “Many Kuwaiti banks have concentrated their lending activity around the Kuwait economy,” says Al-Hammadi. “Overall GDP is under pressure given recent developments in the hydrocarbon sector. It’s still an oil-driven economy, but if you look at non-oil activity, it has continued to benefit from government investment.”

    Credit growth will be supported by improving economic sentiment, so long as deposit growth keeps pace. However, lending is unlikely to match previous years’ levels.

    “Our expectation is that lending growth will drop, given what is happening in the macroeconomic environment. Growth could be a bit slower compared to previous years,” says Al-Hammadi.

    The CBK has urged local banks to be flexible towards customers, although anecdotal evidence suggests greater caution, including tighter personal loan limits.

    Reforms, including the mortgage and housing law, provide an additional opportunity for Kuwaiti banks to support broader growth. The Real Estate Financing Law permits banks to offer supported loans under which the state covers interest payments via the Kuwait Credit Bank, while borrowers repay only the principal.

    Although hydrocarbon-sector growth will be negatively impacted by events in the Gulf this year, banks should be able to secure growth by focusing on the non-hydrocarbon economy.

    “We see growth driven by the non-oil economy and some of the project finance opportunities, which will benefit from the banking sector’s capital and liquidity position. It places the banks in the right place to grab this opportunity,” says Al-Hammadi.


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    The Wadi Umayri field development, located within the Qarn Alam cluster, produces crude oil from the Lekhwair, Shuaiba and Sudair reservoirs. A permanent processing facility is planned to come onstream by the first quarter of 2030.

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    The Middle East and North Africa’s construction project pipeline strengthened in June 2026, recovering some of the momentum lost earlier in the year as the effects of the Israel-Iran conflict continued to work through regional project markets.

    GlobalData’s Construction Projects Momentum Index (CPMI) for the Mena region rose to 0.84 in June, up 5% from 0.80 in May, leaving the region third globally behind South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The three-month moving average held at 0.95, unchanged from May.

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    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    The company expects to grow its autonomous vehicle workforce by more than 220% by the end of the year, increasing from about 150 employees to about 500.

    Founded in 2020 and headquartered in the UAE, Moove finances, owns and operates mobility assets for ride-hailing platforms. It employs 3,300 people and operates about 42,000 vehicles across 29 cities in 13 countries, and has grown to $420m in annual recurring revenue. It has expanded through organic growth and acquisitions, including Kovi in Brazil and Tokyo Taxi in Japan.

    Moove is the largest global fleet partner of ride-hailing company Uber. Through a partnership with Waymo, the autonomous driving unit of US technology group Alphabet, it operates autonomous vehicle fleets in Phoenix and Miami in the US, with operations also planned in London.

    Mubadala first invested in Moove three years ago. The Series C round marks its continued backing of the company as it moves into autonomous fleet operations.


    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

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