Middle East defence spending accelerates
7 May 2023
Global military spending reached a record high of $2.24tn in 2022, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year, according to newly compiled data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), as the Ukraine war and tensions in East Asia prompted governments to ramp up their investment in equipment.
It marks the eighth consecutive year of growth in global defence expenditure. The sharpest rise was in Europe, where there was a 13 per cent increase in spending, but the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region was not far behind, with an 11.2 per cent rise on the previous year.
“The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,” said Nan Tian, a senior researcher with SIPRI’s military expenditure and arms production programme.
“States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.”
Rising regional outlay
The rise in the Mena region’s total to $168bn was mostly due to an increase in spending by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon and Iran.
As has long been the case, Saudi Arabia dominated the picture, with a defence outlay of $75bn in 2022 – up 16 per cent on the year before and its first increase since 2018.
Military spending data for the Middle East is often opaque. Other large spenders, according to SIPRI’s database, include Israel ($23.4bn), Qatar ($15.4bn), Algeria ($9.1bn), Kuwait ($8.2bn), Iran ($6.8bn) and Oman ($5.8bn).
However, the institute has no estimates for a number of other countries, most notably the UAE. Its most recent figure for the UAE is for 2014, at which point the defence budget was an estimated $22.8bn, the region’s second-biggest after Saudi Arabia that year.
There are also no current estimates for defence spending by the countries suffering the greatest instability, including Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen.
Others have drawn up figures for the UAE, though. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimated the UAE’s defence spend was $20.4bn last year in its recently published Military Balance 2023 report. That marked a 6 per cent rise on the previous year’s estimate.
While the UAE may not have the largest budget in the region, IISS says its armed forces are “arguably the best trained and most capable of all GCC states”.
Unclear Iranian picture
The outlay by Iran is also a matter of some debate, given the questions over the value of the rial and the country’s high inflation rate of around 40 per cent.
SIPRI says that, in local currency terms, Iran’s defence spending grew by 38 per cent to IR1,988tn in 2022. That is equivalent to some $46.9bn at the government’s official exchange rate, but far less at the open market rate used by SIPRI.
Inflationary pressures have become a common concern for countries around the world, even if few are having to cope with price rises as rapid as in Iran. Many Western countries are also dealing with an energy supply crisis due to the war in Ukraine, which has led to prices spiking upwards and sanctions being imposed on Moscow.
The Middle East’s oil exporters have benefitted from elevated oil prices, making it easier to afford the rise in defence spending.
However, the most notable direct consequence of the conflict in Ukraine for the Middle East has been the surge in military cooperation that has followed between Russia and Iran. Moscow’s failure to quickly take control of Ukraine has led to a drawn-out conflict and, as its weapons inventory has become depleted, it has imported drones from Iran to fill in some of the gaps.
That cooperation may yet extend in the other direction, with Iranian media reporting in March a potential deal for Tehran to receive Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets. Iran will also have gained useful information about the performance of its Shahed 131, Shahed 136 and Mohajer-6 drones in the war.
Lingering Gulf concerns
Such developments will likely concern other Gulf governments, even if regional tensions have eased somewhat due to the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, announced via a China-brokered agreement in March.
That fits into a broader regional trend for de-escalation and diplomatic advances. Recent talks between Saudi officials and Yemen’s Houthi rebels in Sanaa could yet pave the way to resolving that conflict – further discussions between the two sides are due to take place in May, possibly in Muscat.
The levels of violence in Libya and Syria have also been on a downward trajectory over the past year, but both remain susceptible to further outbreaks of fighting, as does Iraq.
Elsewhere, though, relations between Algeria and Morocco remain problematic, and the prospects of any peace deal between the Israelis and Palestinians look as distant as ever with the hardline government of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in office.
Any reduction in regional tensions will be a welcome development given the high burden of defence spending on local economies. As IISS points out, many Mena countries’ defence budgets are very large relative to the size of their economies.
As has long been the case, Oman spends more as a proportion of its GDP than any other country in the region, with its 2022 outlay equivalent to 5.9 per cent of GDP, according to IISS calculations.
It is followed by Kuwait at 5 per cent and Saudi Arabia at 4.5 per cent.
The average for the region is 3.8 per cent of GDP, more than double the global average of 1.7 per cent. The overall trend for rising budgets means that the economic burden is unlikely to fall away any time soon.
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The Middle East is positioning itself as a global AI innovation hub, with countries including the UAE and Saudi Arabia investing heavily in areas such as AI governance, autonomous systems and smart city technologies.
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The lithium-ion battery market is poised for substantial growth, with projections indicating an expansion from $130.5bn in 2023 to an impressive $408.3bn by 2035. This trajectory represents a consistent 10% annual growth rate, reflecting the increasing global demand for advanced energy storage solutions.
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Geopolitical complexities and potential mineral supply disruptions – particularly concerning lithium, nickel and cobalt – are anticipated to create temporary global battery shortages. Despite ongoing advances in recycling technologies, these supply-chain challenges will pose significant obstacles for manufacturers and consumers alike.
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Morocco is planning to establish the region’s first battery gigafactory, with a planned capacity of 20 gigawatt-hours annually, focusing on electric vehicle batteries.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is also establishing battery manufacturing capabilities to meet growing demand for lithium-ion batteries due to investments in renewable energy projects and EV adoption.
MINERALS
The global demand for critical minerals is experiencing an unprecedented surge, driven by ambitious net-zero targets and the rapid adoption of transformative energy transition technologies. Lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements have become pivotal resources in the production of electric vehicles, solar panels and wind farms, creating significant pressure on mineral prices and global supply chains.
China’s historical monopoly on rare earth element production has gradually diminished, with its market share dropping from a near-total 97% in 2010 to approximately 70% today.
While other nations are pursuing diversification strategies, China remains a dominant force in both rare earth element production and refinement, maintaining substantial control over this critical market segment.
Latin America is emerging as a crucial player in the critical minerals landscape. Countries like Argentina, Bolivia and Chile boast extensive lithium reserves, while Brasil holds the world’s third-largest rare earth element reserves. This geological wealth positions the region as a potential game-changer in global mineral supply.
The Middle East region’s focus on economic diversification has likewise spurred interest in mining critical minerals. Significant mining projects are under way, including copper and gold projects in Oman and expansions of existing gold mines in Saudi Arabia.
There is a regional race to secure lithium deposits and access to other rare earth elements necessary for the technology and energy sectors.
GLOBALDATA REPORTS
This article was written by GlobalData Thematic Intelligence. Click here to see more thematic research.
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Saudi Arabia retenders Shoaiba 6 water contract
20 December 2024
Saudi Water Authority (SWA), the kingdom’s main producer of desalinated water, has retendered a contract to build a new water desalination plant on Saudi Arabia’s western coast, using reverse osmosis technology.
When the Shoaiba 6 seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plant was previously tendered, Jeddah-based Alfatah Water & Power offered the lowest bid for the contract.
The retendered contract indicates a capacity of between 500,000 cm/d and 545,000 cm/d.
SWA expects to receive bids for the retendered contract by 10 January 2025.
Shoaiba 6 is one of four contracts that SWA has tendered this year using an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contracting model.
The other three SWRO projects are Yanbu 5, Ras Al-Khair and Jubail.
VA Tech Wabag submitted the lowest bid for Yanbu 5 and won the $317m contract to build the plant in September. The plant will have the capacity to treat 300,000 cm/d of seawater.
However, on 16 December, SWA cancelled the contract and informed the bidders that it intended to recalibrate the plant’s capacity and issue a new tender over the coming weeks.
The Jubail and Ras Al-Khair SWRO projects will each have the capacity to treat 600,000 cm/d of seawater.
MEED recently reported that Najran-based Emar Al-Janoub for Contracting (EJC) had won the contract to build the Ras Al-Khair SWRO plant.
EJC offered SR2.346bn ($625.6m) to win the contract, seeing off competition from other bidders including the local Civil Works Company and Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, and the Saudi branch of India’s VA Tech Wabag.
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