meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC banks navigate Credit Suisse fallout

31 March 2023

 

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar al-Khudairy’s abrupt resignation on 27 March capped a turbulent few weeks for the world’s financial system. This period saw the kingdom’s champion bank dragged into the harsh glare of the global spotlight and serious questions asked about Gulf financial institutions’ readiness to serve as props in an increasingly jumpy financial order.

A short sentence uttered in an interview by a senior Saudi banker precipitated the collapse of a 160-year-old institution. Ruling out extending beyond its 10 per cent stake as it would entail a higher capital cost led to the fellow Swiss bank UBS buying the troubled lender at a steep discount.

Al-Khudairy took the rap for what was deemed an avoidable crisis, in which SNB took a hosing: it bought the Credit Suisse stock at CHF3.82 ($4.2) a share; UBS has paid just CHF0.76 ($0.83) a share.

The pain goes wider than SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the other Gulf institution directly impacted by Credit Suisse’s troubles, given its 6.9 per cent stake in the lender.

The crisis poses serious questions about the role of wealthy Gulf institutions in a global system that is increasingly reliant on them, but has yet to stress test the relationship.

On the one hand, Gulf investors have been spooked about their exposure to venerable banking institutions that were once seen as copper-bottomed plays. Conversely, Western banks may now legitimately ask whether their Gulf counterparts are reliable partners in a crisis.

Volatile landscape

The backdrop is one of wider concern about the health of global financial markets. The Credit Suisse crisis was prefaced by US regulators shutting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March, following mass withdrawals of customer deposits.

For now, analysts caution against panic. First, SNB’s exposure – and that of other prominent Gulf lenders – appears limited.

“The impact of SNB’s investment in Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS on SNB are limited because the initial investment represents less than 2 per cent of SNB’s investment portfolio and 70-80 bps of the bank’s risk-adjusted capital ratio,” says Mohamed Damak, senior director, Financial Institutions Ratings, at ratings agency S&P.

As to problems in the Western markets, again, exposures are manageable. “On average, banks we rate in GCC had exposure to the US of 4.6 per cent of assets and 2.3 per cent of liabilities at year-end 2022,” says Damak.

“Generally, GCC banks would have limited lending activity in the US and most of their assets there would be in high-credit quality instruments or with the Federal Reserve. The exposure to Europe tends to be limited as well, except for banks that have a presence in some European countries like France or the UK. Most of the activity in these jurisdictions tends to be linked to home countries or generally made of high-quality exposures.”

This will not end SNB shareholder anxiety that the bank’s raison d’etre – supporting domestic projects related to Vision 2030 – had been sidelined in the pursuit of equity positions in global blue chips.

Qatari contagion

Similar questions will be asked in Qatar, where the QIA provided ballast for the Swiss bank’s balance sheet in 2021, when it issued $2bn in convertible notes. The Qatari wealth fund will be reviewing its bank holdings and stress-testing its wider portfolio.

Others will do the same. “Gulf sovereign wealth funds will probably review their asset allocations, regardless of this current crisis,” one Gulf-based economist tells MEED. “The reality is that their role is changing. They were, in the past, more opportunistic investors. Today they are becoming strategic vehicles.”

If Gulf funds like QIA will no longer serve as the global financial system’s white knights – as they proved in the 2008 financial crisis – this may prompt a reconfiguration of investment strategies.

There will be a steep learning curve, says one Gulf-based economist – on both sides.

Governance implications

In light of the growing financial strength of the Gulf institutions come new responsibilities and governance requirements, reflecting the dawning reality that Gulf institutions are growing into increasingly globally systemically significant investors or sources of capital.

“They need to act accordingly,” says the economist. “Not just from the global governance perspective, but also from the perspective of protecting their assets.”

Gulf institutions’ transformation into opportunistic investors was well-timed when liquidity was required at short notice.

“The money centres of the world turned to one of the biggest honey pots they could identify. And, of course, some of the old reservations were conveniently parked aside, at least for the time being,” says the economist.

The challenge for the Gulf institutions was the lack of deep experience or institutional frameworks needed to underpin those initial investments.

“Opportunities arose, these countries chose to take them and they got lucky because they helped stabilise the global financial system, and they helped protect the reputation of these institutions. And no major mistakes were made. But that initial opportunistic approach will no longer fly,” says the economist.

Gulf sector outlook

The Credit Suisse saga has also prompted much ruminating in Western media to the extent that Western institutions may cast a more wary eye in future over their Gulf counterparts.

But absent new funding sources, the GCC's appeal may prove irresistible to them. After all, says the economist, beggars can’t be choosers.

“What is the alternative to resorting to institutions such as the Gulf sovereign funds? They’re not going to go to China, that’s for sure. The only real alternative is to get some sort of a backstop from national central banks. And that is pretty much as close as you can get to a moral hazard,” he says.

The broader global picture is evolving. How Gulf institutions related to primarily Western institutions will also be influenced by the change in the GCC states’ foreign policy.

Gulf governments are increasingly cognisant of the need for a balanced, multi-directional foreign policy. And that is something they will also want to reflect in their wealth funds and banks’ investment behaviour.

The next year should provide an insight into how the post-Credit Suisse modus vivendi will play out.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10724320/main2803.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Firms prepare bids for NWC sewage treatment package 14

    4 September 2026

     

    At least three contractors are preparing to make offers for package 14 of Saudi Arabia’s long-term operations and maintenance (LTOM) sewage treatment programme, according to sources.

    Known as Eastern A Cluster (LTOM14), the package was tendered by the state-owned National Water Company (NWC) in April, with a bid submission deadline of 30 September.

    The contract covers the upgrade of six existing sewage treatment plants (STPs), with a capacity expansion of 30,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) at the Al-Jarodia STP.

    This will increase total treatment capacity from about 263,000 cm/d to approximately 293,000 cm/d, with an estimated cost of $180m.

    According to sources, the firms preparing to submit bids include:

    • Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (Saudi Arabia)
    • Civil Works Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Miahona (Saudi Arabia)

    The latest phase follows the formal signing of a $347m contract between NWC and a Saudi-Chinese consortium for Northern Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 10 (LTOM10) on 2 September.

    The same consortium led by United Water (China) is not planning to bid for LTOM14 and is expected to formally sign a contract for LTOM11 in the coming months, a source said.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that the group had won the contract for package 11, which will have a combined capacity of about 440,000 cm/d.

    It is also understood that Beijing Enterprises, a bidder for North Western B Cluster (LTOM12), is not preparing to bid for package 14.

    In the meantime, the contract for LTOM12 is moving towards award, with bids currently under evaluation.

    The contract covers the construction and upgrade of seven STPs with a combined capacity of about 162,000 cm/d. As previously reported, NWC opened financial bids for the project in April.

    Future phases

    In total, the LTOM programme comprises 19 packages split into two phases. In May 2024, NWC announced it had awarded $2.5bn-worth of contracts in the first phase. Phase two of the programme includes 10 packages covering 117 treatment plants.

    In April, MEED exclusively reported that NWC had held several discussions regarding changes in scope details and potential expansions to upcoming projects. This involved “grouping some upcoming projects”.

    The request for proposals for LTOM13 was subsequently put on hold and it is now understood that this tender has likely been merged with other packages in the programme.

    According to a source, Eastern B Cluster (LTOM15) has also been cancelled and has likely been merged. LTOM15 had comprised two STPs with a total capacity of 152,000 cm/d.

    The next contract to be tendered will be Central Cluster (LTOM16), potentially in November, a source added.

    Under the original scope, LTOM16 covers the construction of 14 STPs with a total capacity of 153,000 cm/d.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19358188/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Egyptian contractor wins Abu Dhabi Ramhan Island deal

    4 September 2026

    Egypt-headquartered contractor Rowad Modern Engineering has been awarded the main works contract for the Marina Apartments project on Ramhan Island, Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by the local firm Eagle Hills, which is led by Mohamed Alabbar, the founder and chairman of Emaar Properties.

    Rowad’s scope includes structural and architectural works, finishing, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems.

    The company will also deliver infrastructure works, including utility connections to external networks, testing and commissioning.

    The development comprises two residential towers offering 187 residential units.

    The works will be carried out under the consultancy supervision of local engineering firm Mirage Leisure & Development.

    The latest contract award follows Eagle Hills awarding the local firm Arabian Construction Company (ACC) an estimated AED2.5bn ($680m) construction contract to build about 500 villas at the Ramhan Island development, as reported by MEED previously.

    Located off the coast of Abu Dhabi, the Ramhan Island development spans an area of over 4 million square metres.

    The overall development includes the construction of 1,800 villas, 900 residences, a hotel and retail facilities.

    Mohamed Alabbar launched the Ramhan Island development in May 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19355437/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai sets deadline for Jebel Ali waste-to-energy PPP

    4 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai Municipality has set a 27 September deadline for developers to submit expressions of interest (EOIs) for its planned Jebel Ali waste-to-energy (WTE) public-private partnership (PPP), according to a source.

    The greenfield facility is planned to treat up to 6,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste a day.

    The municipality is seeking international and local developers to develop, finance and operate the facility. It is planning to prequalify developers later this year before issuing a request for proposals (RFP) in the first quarter of next year, a source said.

    The Jebel Ali facility is intended to support Dubai’s waste-management strategy and its target of reducing reliance on landfill.

    Dubai Municipality is being advised by a team led by Abu Dhabi’s Tribe Infrastructure Group, with UK-headquartered Ashurst and Germany’s Fichtner also involved.

    It was confirmed to MEED that the project is separate from the planned second phase of the Warsan WTE facility, for which Dubai Municipality issued a consultancy tender in February.

    That facility will be located in Warsan 2, next to the Al-Aweer sewage treatment plant. The expansion is expected to increase waste-conversion capacity at the existing Warsan site with an estimated budget of $500m. The consultancy contract has a duration of six years.

    The original Warsan WTE plant, Dubai’s first major WTE public-private partnership (PPP) project, reached full commercial operations in 2024.

    Located in the Warsan area, the AED4bn ($1.1bn) facility treats 1.9 million tonnes of municipal solid waste annually, generating up to 220MW of thermal energy that is fed into the local grid.

    In February 2023, state utility Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) and Dubai Waste Management Company signed the power-purchase agreement (PPA) for the project.

    Dubai Waste Management Company, the special-purpose vehicle implementing the scheme, reached financial close in June 2021 for the project.

    The Warsan project was developed under a 35-year PPP concession by a consortium comprising Dubai Holding, Dubai Aluminium, Tech Group and Itochu Corporation. 

    The main contractor was a joint venture of Belgium’s Besix Group and Hitachi Zosen Inova of Switzerland.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19354502/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Egypt to invest $4.5bn in refinery upgrades

    4 September 2026

    Egypt is planning to invest $4.5bn in refinery upgrades, according to the country’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Karim Badawi.

    Egyptian refineries are operating at 80% of capacity compared with 66% two years ago, according to Badawi, who wants further increases in utilisation of existing facilities.

    “We aim to invest around $4.5bn to develop existing refineries and build new units to reduce imports and achieve self-sufficiency in refined products,” he said in a statement.

    In May, Egypt said that it had increased its fuel import budget by almost 40% for the 2026-27 fiscal year amid higher global prices driven by the Iran war, which started when the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February.

    Brent crude prices are up about a third since the conflict started, trading at more than $90 a barrel for most of this month so far.

    Badawi said a decline in Egypt’s oil and gas production between 2021 and 2024 occurred because foreign companies were reluctant to invest in the country’s energy sector due to unpaid government debts.

    He said: “We have settled all the debt, which reached $6.1bn in June 2024. As a result, hydrocarbon exploration and production activity grew by nearly 20% this year.

    “We are now moving in the right direction to increase oil and gas output gradually.”

    Despite the ongoing push to develop projects in the country’s oil and gas sector, several key projects have seen significant delays in recent years.

    These include a $2bn hydrocracking complex package that forms part of the wider Assiut oil refinery upgrade project.

    Earlier this month, MEED revealed that mechanical completion of the hydrocracking package is now unlikely to be reached until early next year due to complications in the final stages of construction.

    The hydrocracking complex package has experienced extensive delays over several years.

    In April this year, Badawi called for work to accelerate on the Assiut oil refinery upgrade project, saying it is important for reducing the country’s spending on imported refined products.

    At the time, the oil ministry said the project was 88% complete, with trial operations planned by the end of the year.

    Assiut Oil Refining Company (ASORC), a subsidiary of state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, is the project operator.

    France’s Technip Energies is the main contractor, performing engineering, procurement and construction work on the Assiut hydrocracking complex under a $2bn contract awarded by ASORC in February 2020.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19353521/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • North Field West platform bidders get extra time

    4 September 2026

     

    QatarEnergy has granted contractors additional time to prepare bids for a key tender for the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of large platforms for the giant North Field gas field in Qatari waters.

    The tender, issued earlier this year, forms part of the wider North Field West (NFW) project, the third and last phase of the state enterprise’s North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion programme.

    The core scope comprises the EPCI of four production deck modules (PDMs) and associated structures. The new PDMs will increase gas production from North Field reservoirs and provide additional gas feedstock for the NFW LNG development.

    QatarEnergy has set 15 September as the deadline for technical bid submissions, while commercial bids are due on 10 November, according to sources.

    The previous deadlines for submission of technical and commercial bids were 30 August and 25 October, respectively, MEED previously reported.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem (Italy)

    Before issuing the PDM tender, QatarEnergy awarded McDermott a contract for the EPCI of four offshore jackets that will also support gas feedstock supply for the NFW LNG project. The contract is estimated to be worth about $200m, MEED reported in January.

    North Field LNG expansion

    QatarEnergy is advancing the three phases of its estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project. EPC works on all three giant projects are progressing.

    QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the EPCI of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

    In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

    Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

    QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on NFW this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting (GAC) in February.

    Chiyoda carried out the front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the NFW LNG project.

    The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

    In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and LPG.

    With all three phases now under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers over the long term.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19352006/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen