meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC banks navigate Credit Suisse fallout

31 March 2023

 

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar al-Khudairy’s abrupt resignation on 27 March capped a turbulent few weeks for the world’s financial system. This period saw the kingdom’s champion bank dragged into the harsh glare of the global spotlight and serious questions asked about Gulf financial institutions’ readiness to serve as props in an increasingly jumpy financial order.

A short sentence uttered in an interview by a senior Saudi banker precipitated the collapse of a 160-year-old institution. Ruling out extending beyond its 10 per cent stake as it would entail a higher capital cost led to the fellow Swiss bank UBS buying the troubled lender at a steep discount.

Al-Khudairy took the rap for what was deemed an avoidable crisis, in which SNB took a hosing: it bought the Credit Suisse stock at CHF3.82 ($4.2) a share; UBS has paid just CHF0.76 ($0.83) a share.

The pain goes wider than SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the other Gulf institution directly impacted by Credit Suisse’s troubles, given its 6.9 per cent stake in the lender.

The crisis poses serious questions about the role of wealthy Gulf institutions in a global system that is increasingly reliant on them, but has yet to stress test the relationship.

On the one hand, Gulf investors have been spooked about their exposure to venerable banking institutions that were once seen as copper-bottomed plays. Conversely, Western banks may now legitimately ask whether their Gulf counterparts are reliable partners in a crisis.

Volatile landscape

The backdrop is one of wider concern about the health of global financial markets. The Credit Suisse crisis was prefaced by US regulators shutting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March, following mass withdrawals of customer deposits.

For now, analysts caution against panic. First, SNB’s exposure – and that of other prominent Gulf lenders – appears limited.

“The impact of SNB’s investment in Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS on SNB are limited because the initial investment represents less than 2 per cent of SNB’s investment portfolio and 70-80 bps of the bank’s risk-adjusted capital ratio,” says Mohamed Damak, senior director, Financial Institutions Ratings, at ratings agency S&P.

As to problems in the Western markets, again, exposures are manageable. “On average, banks we rate in GCC had exposure to the US of 4.6 per cent of assets and 2.3 per cent of liabilities at year-end 2022,” says Damak.

“Generally, GCC banks would have limited lending activity in the US and most of their assets there would be in high-credit quality instruments or with the Federal Reserve. The exposure to Europe tends to be limited as well, except for banks that have a presence in some European countries like France or the UK. Most of the activity in these jurisdictions tends to be linked to home countries or generally made of high-quality exposures.”

This will not end SNB shareholder anxiety that the bank’s raison d’etre – supporting domestic projects related to Vision 2030 – had been sidelined in the pursuit of equity positions in global blue chips.

Qatari contagion

Similar questions will be asked in Qatar, where the QIA provided ballast for the Swiss bank’s balance sheet in 2021, when it issued $2bn in convertible notes. The Qatari wealth fund will be reviewing its bank holdings and stress-testing its wider portfolio.

Others will do the same. “Gulf sovereign wealth funds will probably review their asset allocations, regardless of this current crisis,” one Gulf-based economist tells MEED. “The reality is that their role is changing. They were, in the past, more opportunistic investors. Today they are becoming strategic vehicles.”

If Gulf funds like QIA will no longer serve as the global financial system’s white knights – as they proved in the 2008 financial crisis – this may prompt a reconfiguration of investment strategies.

There will be a steep learning curve, says one Gulf-based economist – on both sides.

Governance implications

In light of the growing financial strength of the Gulf institutions come new responsibilities and governance requirements, reflecting the dawning reality that Gulf institutions are growing into increasingly globally systemically significant investors or sources of capital.

“They need to act accordingly,” says the economist. “Not just from the global governance perspective, but also from the perspective of protecting their assets.”

Gulf institutions’ transformation into opportunistic investors was well-timed when liquidity was required at short notice.

“The money centres of the world turned to one of the biggest honey pots they could identify. And, of course, some of the old reservations were conveniently parked aside, at least for the time being,” says the economist.

The challenge for the Gulf institutions was the lack of deep experience or institutional frameworks needed to underpin those initial investments.

“Opportunities arose, these countries chose to take them and they got lucky because they helped stabilise the global financial system, and they helped protect the reputation of these institutions. And no major mistakes were made. But that initial opportunistic approach will no longer fly,” says the economist.

Gulf sector outlook

The Credit Suisse saga has also prompted much ruminating in Western media to the extent that Western institutions may cast a more wary eye in future over their Gulf counterparts.

But absent new funding sources, the GCC's appeal may prove irresistible to them. After all, says the economist, beggars can’t be choosers.

“What is the alternative to resorting to institutions such as the Gulf sovereign funds? They’re not going to go to China, that’s for sure. The only real alternative is to get some sort of a backstop from national central banks. And that is pretty much as close as you can get to a moral hazard,” he says.

The broader global picture is evolving. How Gulf institutions related to primarily Western institutions will also be influenced by the change in the GCC states’ foreign policy.

Gulf governments are increasingly cognisant of the need for a balanced, multi-directional foreign policy. And that is something they will also want to reflect in their wealth funds and banks’ investment behaviour.

The next year should provide an insight into how the post-Credit Suisse modus vivendi will play out.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10724320/main2803.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Iraq tenders Baghdad airport PPP project

    9 July 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq’s Ministry of Transport and the General Company for Airport & Air Navigation Services have released a tender inviting firms to bid for a contract to develop Baghdad International airport on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis.

    The notice was issued in July, and the submission deadline is in September.

    According to an official statement posted on its website, Iraq’s Ministry of Transport said that 10 out of 14 international consortiums that expressed interest in the project earlier this year have been prequalified to compete for the tender.

    The scope of the estimated $400m-$600m project involves rehabilitating, expanding, financing, operating and maintaining the airport. It is the first airport PPP project to be launched in Iraq.

    The initial capacity of the airport is expected to be around 9 million passengers, which will be gradually increased to 15 million passengers.

    The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group, is the project’s lead transaction adviser.

    Iraq is already developing the Baghdad and Najaf-Karbala metro projects using a similar PPP model.

    Earlier this month, MEED reported that Iraq intends to retender the contract to develop and operate the Baghdad Metro project, following the award of the estimated $2.5bn contract last year.

    According to local media reports, Nasser Al-Assadi, adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani, stated that the previous developers had overestimated the project budget; therefore, the government will relaunch the entire process to implement the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14229008/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors prepare revised bids for Roshn stadium

    9 July 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi gigaproject developer Roshn has invited firms to submit revised commercial proposals by 24 July for a contract to build a new stadium adjacent to the National Guard facilities to the southwest of Riyadh.

    Known as the National Guard Stadium, it will be delivered on an early contractor involvement (ECI) basis. It will cover an area of over 450,000 square metres and be able to accommodate 46,000 spectators.

    The scope of work also covers the construction of auxiliary facilities, including training academy offices and two hotels, as well as retail and food and beverage outlets.

    The firms had initially submitted bids on 8 April for the contract.

    The stadium is scheduled to host 32 Fifa World Cup tournament games in 2034.

    In August last year, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia plans to build 11 new stadiums as part of its bid to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

    Eight stadiums will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.

    The proposal outlines an additional 10 cities that will host training bases. These are Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, Al-Ula, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah.

    The bid proposes 134 training sites across the kingdom, including 61 existing facilities and 73 new training venues.

    The kingdom was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup through an online convention of Fifa member associations at the Fifa congress on 11 December 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14228507/main.jpg
  • Morocco begins Casablanca airport expansion works

    9 July 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Morocco’s Office National des Aeroports (ONDA) has broken ground on the new terminal at Morocco’s largest airport, Mohammed V International airport in Casablanca.

    According to local media reports, ONDA awarded an estimated MD294m ($29m) deal for enabling works to local firm Societe de Travaux Agricoles Marocaine.

    The Mohammed V International airport expansion is expected to be completed in 2029.

    The tendering activity for the main works on the new terminal is also ongoing. In April, MEED reported that ONDA had issued a notice inviting firms to express interest in a contract to build the new terminal at Mohammed V International airport.

    The estimated MD15bn ($1.6bn) expansion will increase the airport’s capacity to 30 million passengers a year.

    In June, 28 local and international firms expressed interest in the contract to build the new terminal.

    The new terminal will cover an area of about 450,000 square metres.

    It is expected to be ready in time for the 2030 Fifa World Cup, which Morocco is co-hosting alongside Portugal and Spain.

    In January, Morocco’s Transport & Logistics Minister, Abdessamad Kayouh, said that the study to expand the airport’s capacity was nearing completion.

    The project is part of Morocco’s MD42bn ($4.3bn) plan to expand key airports in anticipation of increased passenger flow for the 2030 football World Cup.

    Earlier this year, Morocco announced that it will also build a new airport in Casablanca in preparation for the tournament. 

    Morocco plans to upgrade several of its airports, including those in Tangier, Marrakech and Agadir, increasing their respective capacities to 7 million, 16 million and 7 million passengers annually.

    There are also plans to add a new terminal at Rabat-Sale airport, raising its capacity to handle 4 million passengers, and to increase the capacity of Fez airport to 5 million passengers annually. 

    The new terminal at Mohammed V International airport will be connected to a high-speed train network that will link Kenitra to Marrakech.

    In October last year, Morocco’s national railway operator, L’Office National des Chemins de Fer, awarded several civil works contracts for its Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed railway line.

    This project is part of a $37bn strategy to connect more of Morocco’s cities, ports and airports by train. The line will stretch 375 kilometres (km) from Kenitra on the northwest coast to Marrakech in the south.

    The project is divided into seven lots, each measuring between 36km and 64km. The rail link will traverse cities including Rabat, Sale, Casablanca and Marrakech.

    The link will extend the Al-Boraq railway, a high-speed rail line between Tangier, Rabat and Casablanca. The line started operating in 2018 and was Africa’s first high-speed railway system.

    World Cup 2030 galvanises Morocco construction

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14228502/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • BP signs Libya oil deal

    9 July 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The London-headquartered oil and gas company BP has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), agreeing to consider the redevelopment of two of the country’s largest oil fields and the exploration of neighbouring areas.

    Under the MoU, BP and NOC will jointly conduct feasibility studies to assess the technical and commercial viability of restarting production at the Messla and Sarir oil fields, according to a statement published by BP.

    The Messla and Sarir oil fields were previously among Libya’s most productive assets.

    Under the terms of the MoU agreement, BP and NOC will explore the potential development of both conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources across a broad area of the Sirte Basin.

    William Lin, BP’s executive vice-president for gas and low-carbon energy, said: “This agreement reflects our strong interest in deepening our partnership with NOC and supporting the future of Libya’s energy sector.

    “We hope to apply BP’s experience from redeveloping and managing giant oil fields around the world to help optimise the performance of these world-class assets.”

    BP also confirmed plans to reopen its office in Tripoli before the end of this year.

    In its statement, BP said: “The move marks a significant step toward restoring the company’s physical presence in Libya and demonstrates a renewed confidence in the country’s operating environment.”

    This announcement comes amid a wider trend of international oil companies returning to Libya. Shell, for instance, signed a separate agreement with NOC to evaluate the Atshan field. Other global players, such as Eni, OMV and Repsol, are also active in Libya once again, reversing the withdrawal that followed the 2011 revolution and subsequent civil unrest.

    Libya is Africa’s second-largest oil producer and a key member of Opec.

    The country’s output has recently stabilised at around 1.385 million barrels a day (b/d).

    With the redevelopment of major fields and new exploration, production levels could rise significantly in the coming years.

    The country’s security situation remains difficult, with frequent outbreaks of violence and clashes between militias.

    In May, clashes in Tripoli involved heavy artillery and armed confrontations between rival factions.

    The clashes highlighted concerns over stability within Libya’s capital and the rest of the western region, which is under the control of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

    The Sarir and Messla oil fields, located in the Sirte Basin, rank among Libya’s largest. Sarir was discovered in 1961 and Messla in 1971.

    BP re-entered Libya in 2007, when it signed an exploration and production sharing agreement (EPSA) covering exploration areas A and B (onshore), and area C (offshore) with Libya’s NOC.

    The EPSA was later put on hold following the declaration of force majeure.

    In 2022, Eni acquired a 42.5% interest and assumed exploration operatorship of the EPSA, with BP retaining a 42.5% interest and the Libyan Investment Authority holding the remaining 15%.

    In 2023, Eni and BP formally lifted the force majeure, resuming exploration operations in the onshore areas.

    Iraq expansion

    BP is also pursuing expansion efforts in Iraq. Earlier this year, the company finalised a deal with Iraq’s Ministry of Oil to help redevelop the Kirkuk oil fields.

    These projects – encompassing the Bai Hassan, Avana, Baba, Jambur and Khabbaz domes – are expected to yield more than 3 billion barrels of recoverable resources, with the potential for up to 20 billion barrels, according to BP.

    The company said: “Together, these developments point to BP’s strategic push to re-enter frontier and post-conflict energy markets, combining legacy assets with fresh exploration.

    “For Libya, renewed international investment offers the potential for greater economic stability and a stronger presence in the global oil market.”

    READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14227432/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq retenders two refineries worth $5bn

    9 July 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq has retendered contracts to develop two refineries with a total estimated value of $5bn.

    The Al-Kut investment refinery project in Wasit Governorate involves developing a facility with an oil processing capacity of 100,000 barrels a day (b/d), while the Al-Samawah investment refinery project comprises developing a facility with the capacity to process 70,000 b/d, according to documents released by the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

    Both projects will be implemented using either the build-own-operate (BOO) or build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) contract models, according to the documents.

    The Al-Kut refinery will process crude oil from the fields of Maissan Governorate. The project will include a 250km pipeline to transport the crude from the source to the project site.

    The Al-Samawah investment refinery will process crude oil from the Nasiriya depot.

    For both projects, the relevant information package can be purchased for $30,000 from 8 July 2025 until the end of the working day on 6 August 2025.

    Technical and commercial offers as well as other required documents are due to be submitted to the Oil Ministry’s Studies and Planning Directorate before the end of the working day on 5 October 2025.

    Plans for both refineries were first announced by the Oil Ministry in 2016, with invitations to bid issued for the Al-Kut refinery in 2018.

    After 2018, both projects stalled for several years before invitations to bid were issued for both refineries in April 2023.

    The Oil Ministry has not officially confirmed why the 2003 invitation to bid did not result in contract awards.

    READ THE JULY 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    UAE and Turkiye expand business links; Renewed hope lies on the horizon for trouble-beset Levant region; Gulf real estate momentum continues even as concerns emerge

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > PROJECTS MARKET: GCC projects market collapses
    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index continues climb
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14221742/main.png
    Wil Crisp