meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC banks navigate Credit Suisse fallout

31 March 2023

 

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar al-Khudairy’s abrupt resignation on 27 March capped a turbulent few weeks for the world’s financial system. This period saw the kingdom’s champion bank dragged into the harsh glare of the global spotlight and serious questions asked about Gulf financial institutions’ readiness to serve as props in an increasingly jumpy financial order.

A short sentence uttered in an interview by a senior Saudi banker precipitated the collapse of a 160-year-old institution. Ruling out extending beyond its 10 per cent stake as it would entail a higher capital cost led to the fellow Swiss bank UBS buying the troubled lender at a steep discount.

Al-Khudairy took the rap for what was deemed an avoidable crisis, in which SNB took a hosing: it bought the Credit Suisse stock at CHF3.82 ($4.2) a share; UBS has paid just CHF0.76 ($0.83) a share.

The pain goes wider than SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the other Gulf institution directly impacted by Credit Suisse’s troubles, given its 6.9 per cent stake in the lender.

The crisis poses serious questions about the role of wealthy Gulf institutions in a global system that is increasingly reliant on them, but has yet to stress test the relationship.

On the one hand, Gulf investors have been spooked about their exposure to venerable banking institutions that were once seen as copper-bottomed plays. Conversely, Western banks may now legitimately ask whether their Gulf counterparts are reliable partners in a crisis.

Volatile landscape

The backdrop is one of wider concern about the health of global financial markets. The Credit Suisse crisis was prefaced by US regulators shutting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March, following mass withdrawals of customer deposits.

For now, analysts caution against panic. First, SNB’s exposure – and that of other prominent Gulf lenders – appears limited.

“The impact of SNB’s investment in Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS on SNB are limited because the initial investment represents less than 2 per cent of SNB’s investment portfolio and 70-80 bps of the bank’s risk-adjusted capital ratio,” says Mohamed Damak, senior director, Financial Institutions Ratings, at ratings agency S&P.

As to problems in the Western markets, again, exposures are manageable. “On average, banks we rate in GCC had exposure to the US of 4.6 per cent of assets and 2.3 per cent of liabilities at year-end 2022,” says Damak.

“Generally, GCC banks would have limited lending activity in the US and most of their assets there would be in high-credit quality instruments or with the Federal Reserve. The exposure to Europe tends to be limited as well, except for banks that have a presence in some European countries like France or the UK. Most of the activity in these jurisdictions tends to be linked to home countries or generally made of high-quality exposures.”

This will not end SNB shareholder anxiety that the bank’s raison d’etre – supporting domestic projects related to Vision 2030 – had been sidelined in the pursuit of equity positions in global blue chips.

Qatari contagion

Similar questions will be asked in Qatar, where the QIA provided ballast for the Swiss bank’s balance sheet in 2021, when it issued $2bn in convertible notes. The Qatari wealth fund will be reviewing its bank holdings and stress-testing its wider portfolio.

Others will do the same. “Gulf sovereign wealth funds will probably review their asset allocations, regardless of this current crisis,” one Gulf-based economist tells MEED. “The reality is that their role is changing. They were, in the past, more opportunistic investors. Today they are becoming strategic vehicles.”

If Gulf funds like QIA will no longer serve as the global financial system’s white knights – as they proved in the 2008 financial crisis – this may prompt a reconfiguration of investment strategies.

There will be a steep learning curve, says one Gulf-based economist – on both sides.

Governance implications

In light of the growing financial strength of the Gulf institutions come new responsibilities and governance requirements, reflecting the dawning reality that Gulf institutions are growing into increasingly globally systemically significant investors or sources of capital.

“They need to act accordingly,” says the economist. “Not just from the global governance perspective, but also from the perspective of protecting their assets.”

Gulf institutions’ transformation into opportunistic investors was well-timed when liquidity was required at short notice.

“The money centres of the world turned to one of the biggest honey pots they could identify. And, of course, some of the old reservations were conveniently parked aside, at least for the time being,” says the economist.

The challenge for the Gulf institutions was the lack of deep experience or institutional frameworks needed to underpin those initial investments.

“Opportunities arose, these countries chose to take them and they got lucky because they helped stabilise the global financial system, and they helped protect the reputation of these institutions. And no major mistakes were made. But that initial opportunistic approach will no longer fly,” says the economist.

Gulf sector outlook

The Credit Suisse saga has also prompted much ruminating in Western media to the extent that Western institutions may cast a more wary eye in future over their Gulf counterparts.

But absent new funding sources, the GCC's appeal may prove irresistible to them. After all, says the economist, beggars can’t be choosers.

“What is the alternative to resorting to institutions such as the Gulf sovereign funds? They’re not going to go to China, that’s for sure. The only real alternative is to get some sort of a backstop from national central banks. And that is pretty much as close as you can get to a moral hazard,” he says.

The broader global picture is evolving. How Gulf institutions related to primarily Western institutions will also be influenced by the change in the GCC states’ foreign policy.

Gulf governments are increasingly cognisant of the need for a balanced, multi-directional foreign policy. And that is something they will also want to reflect in their wealth funds and banks’ investment behaviour.

The next year should provide an insight into how the post-Credit Suisse modus vivendi will play out.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10724320/main2803.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • WEBINAR: Iraq Projects Market 2026

    20 May 2026

    Webinar: Iraq Projects Market 2026 
    Thursday 4 June | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the Iraq projects market landscape
    • 2025-26 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Assessment of key current and future projects
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Summary of the key clients, contractors and consultants
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16925011/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Surbana Jurong to lead Jeddah airport expansion

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Singapore-based engineering firm Surbana Jurong is expected to lead the future expansion and development plans of Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco).

    Surbana Jurong's group CEO, Sean Chiao, met with Jedco's CEO, Mazen Bin Mohammed Johar, earlier this week to explore expanded cooperation.

    The meeting focused on leveraging Surbana Jurong’s international expertise in delivering and managing major projects to help King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) scale towards more than 90 million passengers annually by 2030.

    Both sides also discussed talent development for Saudi engineers through Surbana Jurong Academy programmes, mentorship and participation in international airport projects, alongside establishing a joint governance framework and progressing towards a memorandum of understanding.

    Surbana Jurong is delivering project management consultancy services for over 100 capital projects at KAIA, valued at SR3bn ($800m).

    These upgrades will boost KAIA’s annual capacity from 29 million to 114 million passengers by 2030, supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, and enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in the kingdom, including Red Sea Global's Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway's North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also been part of projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Etihad high-speed rail and Abu Dhabi airport's Midfield Terminal.

    The firm has also secured masterplan project contracts from Abu Dhabi's Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16922013/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for Metro Gold Line

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has invited contractors to express interest in a contract to build the new Gold Line, as part of its expansion of the Dubai Metro network.

    The notice was issued in mid-May with a submission deadline of 13 June.

    Dubai officially announced the launch of the new Gold Line in April.

    In a post on social media site X, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, said the project will cost about AED34bn ($9.2bn).

    The Gold Line will increase the total length of the Dubai Metro network by 35%.

    The project is scheduled for completion in September 2032.

    The Gold Line will be a fully underground network covering more than 42 kilometres, with 18 stations.

    It will pass through 15 areas in Dubai, benefiting 1.5 million residents.

    The project is expected to provide connectivity to over 55 under-construction real estate development projects.

    The Gold Line will start at Al-Ghubaiba in Bur Dubai and end at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

    It will be connected to Dubai Metro’s existing Red and Green lines and will integrate with the Etihad Rail passenger line.

    The contractor will be responsible for the design and build of all civil works, electromechanical equipment, rolling stock and rail systems.

    The selected contractor will also be required to assist in the systems maintenance and operations during an initial three-year period.

    In October last year, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had selected US-based engineering firm Aecom to provide consultancy services for the Dubai Metro Gold Line project.

    Stage one covers concept design, stage two covers preliminary design, stage three covers the preparation of tender documents, stage four encompasses construction supervision and stage five covers the defects and liability period.

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16919605/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq oil exports drop by 89% in April

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq exported 10 million barrels of crude in April, an 89% drop compared to the 93 million barrels that were exported the month before the Iran conflict, according to the country’s new Oil Minister, Basim Mohammed Khudair.

    Oil exports generated just over $1bn in April, down from $6bn in February, according to a separate statement from the ministry.

    The decline in export volumes and revenues is due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, which started on 28 February.

    The country is exporting crude by sea through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as from Kirkuk through the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP).

    Iraq has plans to increase flows through the ITP to 500,000 barrels a day (b/d), according to Khudair.

    The minister said an increase in crude output from the north of the country depends on the return of global oil companies to the Kurdistan region.

    “The government is treating the energy file in the Kurdistan region as a priority,” he said.

    Many international companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region suspended their operations in the wake of the US and Isreal attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Khudair said Iraq is currently producing a total of 1.4 million b/d of crude.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913742/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq risks defaulting on payments for $10bn oil project

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq’s state-owned upstream operator Basra Oil Company (BOC) risks defaulting on payments for the $27bn Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) due to fallout from the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    Phase one of the GGIP is expected to be worth about $10bn and BOC holds a 30% stake in the project, while its partners France’s TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy hold 45% and 25%, respectively.

    The consortium formalised the investment agreement with the Iraqi government in September 2021.

    As part of the investment agreement, BOC was expected to make payments to fund the development of the project and the money from these payments was expected to come from oil revenues.

    Due to disruption to the shipping of oil via the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, which started on 28 February, BOC’s revenues from oil have declined significantly, impacting the company’s ability to provide funds for the project.

    BOC could default on payments for the project within four to six months if disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, according to industry sources.

    BOC has already informed TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy that it is going though liquidity problems because it is unable to export normal volumes of oil, sources said.

    When contacted about the project’s financial issues, TotalEnergies referred MEED to comments made by the company’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne on 29 April.

    He said: “We have maintained a team in Iraq, in Basra, of 20 TotalEnergies’ staff, who are supervising the progress of the GGIP projects on the ground, with around 5,000 workers there.”

    He added: “This conflict immediately has some impact on TotalEnergies' operations. And we have been, by the way, very transparent, since day one, to disclose all the impacts on our activities.”

    TotalEnergies declined to answer questions about potential changes to the schedule for the GGIP and whether there are alternative plans in place that provide for a situation where BOC could not deliver agreed funds.

    GGIP masterplan

    The GGIP programme is focused on developing four major projects in Iraq.

    These are:

    • The Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP)
    • The Ratawi gas processing complex
    • A 1GW solar power project for Iraq’s electricity ministry
    • A field development project at Ratawi, known as the Associated Gas Upstream Project (AGUP)

    The CSSP is designed to support oil production in Iraq’s southern oil and gas fields – mainly Zubair, Rumaila, Majnoon, West Qurna and Ratawi – by delivering treated seawater for injection, a method used to boost crude recovery rates and improve long-term reservoir performance.

    China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) won a $1.61bn contract in May to execute engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for the gas processing complex at the Ratawi field development.

    CPECC’s project team based in its Dubai office is performing detailed engineering work on the project.

    In August last year, TotalEnergies awarded China Energy Engineering International Group the EPC contract for the 1GW solar project at the Ratawi field. A month later, QatarEnergy signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire a 50% interest in the project.

    The 1GW Ratawi solar scheme will be developed in phases, with each phase coming online between 2025 and 2027. It will have the capacity to provide electricity to about 350,000 homes in Iraq’s Basra region.

    The project, consisting of 2 million bifacial solar panels mounted on single-axis trackers, will include the design, procurement, construction and commissioning of the photovoltaic power station site and 132kV booster station.

    Separately, in June, TotalEnergies awarded China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering an EPC contract worth $294m to build a pipeline as part of a package known as the Ratawi Gas Midstream Pipeline.

    Also, TotalEnergies awarded UK-based consultant Wood Group a pair of engineering framework agreements in April 2025, worth a combined $11m, under the GGIP scheme.

    The agreements have a three-year term under which Wood will support TotalEnergies in advancing the AGUP.

    One of the aims of the AGUP is to debottleneck and upgrade existing facilities to increase production capacity to 120,000 barrels a day of oil on completion of the first phase, according to a statement by Wood.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913732/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp