Belt and Road woes could benefit the Gulf

31 March 2023

The Gulf region could benefit from the growing signs of strain affecting China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Beijing has substantially increased its lending for bailouts to developing countries following a series of debt write-offs, controversies and corruption allegations. As the financial burden increases, Chinese companies and financial institutions could respond by shifting their focus to less risky markets such as the Gulf. 

A study published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that between 2019 and the end of 2021, China extended $104bn in rescue loans to developing nations, almost equal to its bailout lending over the previous two decades. From 2000 until the end of 2021, China carried out 128 bailout operations in 22 countries with a total value of $240bn.

Interest rates

Compared to loans from agencies such as the IMF with interest rates of about 2 per cent, the Chinese emergency loans come with interest rates in the region of 5 per cent, making them unaffordable for some countries. This has led to criticism of China’s aid strategy – claims that Beijing has publicly rejected.

The BRI is a global infrastructure initiative that aims to build a network of trade and infrastructure projects connecting China with more than 100 countries across Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

The BRI has been a way for China to expand its global economic and political influence by financing and constructing infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, ports and power plants, among others, in participating countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping formally announced the initiative during a speech at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan in September 2013. During the speech, Xi Jinping proposed the creation of a Silk Road Economic Belt and a 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The initiative promoted regional and global economic development, strengthened cooperation and connectivity among participating countries, and enhanced cultural exchange and mutual understanding.

As well as burdening countries with unaffordable debts, another criticism of the BRI is that it needs to be clearly defined and centrally managed in Beijing. After being announced in a speech, Chinese companies have been tacitly encouraged to support development projects overseas. Without oversight, these projects and associated loans have sometimes failed to succeed commercially.

Regional connection

While the BRI has yet to be clearly defined, the Middle East is part of it. The clearest demonstration came in December last year when Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and President Xi Jinping signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Riyadh, and a series of high-level commitments, including one to harmonise the goals of Saudi’s Vision 2030 with China’s BRI.

If China chooses to become more risk-averse with its BRI investments, Saudi Arabia and several other key Middle Eastern markets could be prime areas of focus. The other countries are the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Egypt. The Gulf countries have large hydrocarbon reserves, which are a strategic priority for China. The revenues they generate also give countries the cash flow to service any loans extended by Beijing.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, China was the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the US in 2021. It consumed 14.76 million barrels a day, which equates to 15 per cent of the global total.

Egypt is considered strategically important because of the Suez Canal. The waterway enables China to import raw materials from the Middle East and Africa and export finished goods to Europe and other markets. Any disruption to the flow of goods through the canal, such as the blockage caused by the Ever Given container ship in March 2021, can have significant economic consequences for China.

Busy working

China is already backing significant levels of project activity in these countries. Major contract awards secured by Chinese construction companies in Saudi Arabia during 2022 include contracts to build photovoltaic solar power plants, tunnels, roads, bridges and a cement plant.

This year a Chinese-led consortium is well placed to win work on the $7bn Saudi Landbridge project. It was reported in January that negotiations are ongoing for the final cost and financing of the scheme, which involves building a railway network across the kingdom from the Red Sea coast to the Gulf.

China National Nuclear Corporation is also one of the companies bidding for the contract to build the kingdom’s first nuclear power plant.

Chinese companies are involved in various major projects in the UAE, including Etihad Rail, the Hassyan coal-fired power plant and the Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park. China’s oil and gas infrastructure investments include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which holds a 4 per cent stake in Abu Dhabi’s hydrocarbon blocks. In addition, Chinese companies are investing in other sectors, such as the development and operation of Khalifa Port’s second container terminal and the China-UAE Capacity Demonstration Park.

In Egypt, China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) is working on the New Administrative Capital project east of Cairo. China is also involved in constructing a new industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, which aims to attract foreign investment and boost economic growth. For example, at the end of March, it was reported that Chinese company Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes plans to invest $2bn in iron and steel plants in the economic zone.

In Iraq, Chinese companies are heavily involved in the oil and gas sector. Chinese contractors dramatically ramped up their activities in Iraq’s energy sector, winning 87 per cent of all oil, gas and power project contracts awarded in the country during 2022.

There is plenty of room for Chinese involvement to grow in the future. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there are $1.3tn of projects in the pre-execution stages across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Egypt.

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Colin Foreman
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     Region boosts LNG spending

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    This package also includes: Gulf players secure future of LNG projects 


    There has been a sharp rise in investment in projects aimed at expanding the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Gulf region since the start of this decade.

    A capital expenditure of close to $38bn has been made by Middle East and North Africa hydrocarbons producers in the past 10 years, mainly on projects to increase LNG output capacity, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Almost three quarters of that spending has taken place in the past four years, and predominantly in the GCC.

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    Qatar has been jostling with the US and Australia for the title of world’s largest LNG provider for many years. Each of these three producers have clinched the top spot at different points, only to be unseated by one of the others again.

    However, when its North Field LNG expansion starts to come online later in this decade, Qatar will be able to consolidate its position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of LNG in the long term.

    State enterprise QatarEnergy is understood to have spent almost $30bn on the two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme, North Field East and North Field South, which will increase its LNG production capacity from 77.5 million t/y to 126 million t/y by 2028. Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the two projects are making progress.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts in 2021 for the North Field East project, which is projected to increase LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The main $13bn EPC package, which covers engineering, procurement, construction and installation of four LNG trains with capacities of 8 million t/y, was awarded to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda Corporation and France’s Technip Energies in February 2021.

    QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for the North Field South LNG project, covering two large LNG processing trains, to a consortium of Technip Energies and Lebanon-based Consolidated Contractors Company in May 2023.

    When fully commissioned, the first two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme will contribute a total supply capacity of 48 million t/y to the global LNG market.

    And Doha is not stopping there. QatarEnergy announced a third phase of its North Field LNG expansion programme in February. To be called North Field West, the project will further increase QatarEnergy’s LNG production capacity to 142 million t/y when it is commissioned by 2030.

    The North Field West project will have an LNG production capacity of 16 million t/y, which is expected to be achieved through two 8 million t/y LNG processing trains, based on the two earlier phases of QatarEnergy’s LNG expansion programme. The new project will draw feedstock for LNG production from the western zone of Qatar’s North Field offshore gas reserve.

    Muscat moves up

    Oman has been supplying LNG to customers, mainly in Asia, for many years. Majority state-owned Oman LNG operates three gas liquefaction trains at its site in Qalhat, with a nameplate capacity of 10.4 million t/y. Due to debottlenecking, the company’s complex now has a production capacity of about 11.4 million t/y.

    France’s TotalEnergies has also committed to becoming a major LNG supplier in the sultanate. In partnership with state energy holding conglomerate OQ, TotalEnergies has achieved final investment decision on a major LNG bunkering and export terminal in Oman’s northern city of Sohar.

    TotalEnergies is leading the Marsa LNG joint venture, which is developing the Sohar LNG terminal project. Marsa LNG was formed in December 2021 by TotalEnergies and OQ, with the partners owning 80% and 20% stakes, respectively.

    Marsa LNG plans to develop an integrated facility consisting of upstream units that will draw natural gas feedstock from TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbons concessions in Oman, particularly from the sultanate’s Blocks 10 and 11. 

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    Adnoc’s ambitions

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has historically been one of the GCC’s smaller LNG producers. Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Gas operates three large gas processing trains on Das Island. 

    At its Das Island terminal, Adnoc Gas has an LNG liquefaction and export capacity of about 6 million t/y. The facility’s first and second trains were commissioned in the 1970s and have a total combined output capacity of 2.9 million t/y. The third train came into operation in the mid-1990s and has a capacity of 3.2 million t/y.

    The LNG production and export capability of Adnoc Gas will receive a major boost when a new greenfield terminal that it has committed to developing in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, comes online before the end of this decade.

    The planned LNG export terminal in Ruwais will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million t/y of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y. The facility will ship LNG mainly to key Asian markets, such as Pakistan, India, China, South Korea and Japan.

    In March, Adnoc Group announced that it had issued a limited notice to proceed to a consortium of contractors for early EPC works on the Ruwais LNG terminal project. 

    The limited notice to proceed was given to a consortium led by Technip Energies, consisting of Japan-based JGC Corporation and Abu Dhabi-owned NMDC Energy.

    The overall value of the export terminal project is estimated to be more than $5bn. Adnoc is expected to issue the full EPC contract award for the Ruwais project in June this year.

     Gulf players secure future of LNG projects 

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    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia extends Jubail-Buraydah IWTP deadline

    29 April 2024

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    It is larger than the Rayis-Rabigh IWTP project, which a consortium including the local Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies Company will develop and operate at a cost of SR7.78bn ($2bn).

    SWPC issued the request for proposals for the Jubail-Buraydah IWTP scheme to the prequalified bidders in October last year.

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    MEED understands discussions are ongoing among other prequalified bidders to either join the consortiums or form separate ones. 

    The state water offtaker qualified 22 companies to bid for the contract in April 2022. They were:

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    • AliShar Contracting Company
    • Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies
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    • Bin Omairah Contracting Company
    • China Gezhouba Group Overseas Investment Company 
    • China Harbour Engineering Company 
    • China Railway Construction Corporation (International)
    • China State Construction Engineering Corporation
    • CNIC Corporation
    • Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios
    • Gulf Investment Corporation
    • Lamar Holding
    • Marubeni Corporation
    • Mowah Company
    • Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Company for Contracting
    • Nesma Company
    • Norinco International Cooperation
    • SICIM
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    The transaction advisory team for the client comprises US/India’s Synergy Consulting as financial adviser and the local Amer Al Amr and Germany’s Fichtner Consulting as legal and technical advisers, respectively.

    SWPC’s obligations under the water transfer agreement will be guaranteed by a credit support agreement entered into by the Finance Ministry on behalf of the Saudi government.

    The project is part of the kingdom’s National Water Strategy 2030, which aims to reduce the water demand-supply gap and ensure desalinated water accounts for 90% of national urban supply to reduce reliance on non-renewable ground sources.

    SWPC’s Seven-Year Planning Statement calls for the development of eight IWTP projects by 2028.

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo