Gulf aviation’s toughest test since the pandemic

30 June 2026

Commentary
Colin Foreman
Editor

The conflict that erupted on 28 February has tested Gulf aviation more severely than any event since the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet the sector’s response has revealed both its vulnerability and its underlying resilience in equal measure.

The scale of the disruption has been severe. Between 28 February and 5 March alone, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled across seven major regional airports. Jet fuel prices are expected to average $152 a barrel this year, almost 70% above 2025 levels, while the International Air Transport Association now forecasts global airline net profit of $23bn in 2026, roughly half its earlier projection. 

For Gulf hub carriers, whose business models depend on stable long-haul routings and transfer traffic, the financial hit has been unavoidable.

The sector’s response has revealed both its vulnerability and its underlying resilience

What is striking, however, is the speed and confidence of the recovery. Etihad is already operating at 90% of pre-war capacity, with fares back at pre-war levels and no plans to discount. Emirates, despite flying at just 58% of its capacity in March, posted a record annual profit and announced a 20-week salary bonus for staff. Riyadh Air pressed ahead with five new destinations in June. Dubai and Riyadh are together preparing to award tens of billions of dollars in airport construction contracts before the year is out.

The pattern is consistent across tourism, too. Hotel and resort construction contracts in the GCC have already surpassed last year’s full-year total, and sovereign entertainment projects such as the Sphere Abu Dhabi are being formalised mid-conflict. Governments are making clear that their long-term infrastructure ambitions are not contingent on short-term demand.

The coming months will determine how quickly international airline confidence, and the passengers that follow it, returns to the Gulf. The signals from within the region point firmly in one direction.


READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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Colin Foreman
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