meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi leads MEED’s latest economic activity index

31 January 2023

 

Saudi Arabia has continued to sit atop the MEED Economic Activity Index with the close of 2022, as its repeat of another bumper year of project contract awards set it well clear of the next most competitive regional projects market.

The index has generally seen the division between energy exporters and importers sharpen, with the former enjoying current account and, for the most part, fiscal surpluses, and the latter invariably facing trade deficits and persisting fiscal deficits.

High inflation, compounded by rising interest rates and high fuel prices, continues to erode economic prospects in the region. It has also pressured the finances of countries with artificially high currency pegs. Egypt has been forced to drop its currency peg three times in the past year, leaving it increasingly at the mercy of inflation.

Saudi Arabia stands largely apart from these pressures as the region’s largest oil producer. Its inflation rate in 2023 is projected by the IMF to be a minimal 2.2 per cent. While its rate of real GDP growth is expected to come down from 7.6 per cent in 2022 to 3.7 per cent in 2023, this remains high amid the glum projections that up to a third of the global economy could enter recession this year.

Together with the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and surprisingly Iraq, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain a double-digit current account surplus in 2023, as well as a fiscal surplus, despite the kingdom’s rising project spending.

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage [in Saudi Arabia], boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector

Project potential

Saudi Arabia’s project market maintained its momentum in 2022, seeing the award of 53bn-worth of project value, 1.3 per cent more than in 2021 and 46 per cent higher than the annual average over the preceding five years. 

The award figure also exceeded the value of projects coming to completion over the course of the year by $21bn – a strong net positive result for the market. 

There is a further $95bn-worth of project value in the bidding stage, boding well for the potential of 2023 to be another bumper – if not record – year for the Saudi contracting sector.

Mixed performances

The UAE, while retaining the second position in the index, has seen its score slip. Despite having strong real GDP growth and fiscal projections for 2023, the country remains well down from historic highs – the $18.7bn-worth of project awards in 2022 was just 53 per cent of the $35.1bn average in 2017-21. The market also shed $20bn in value as completions outstripped awards. 

The $56.4bn of projects in bidding and due for award in 2023 makes the prospect of a turnround a possibility, but there is no guarantee given the global uncertainty.

Qatar has meanwhile risen strongly in the index since the third quarter of 2022, despite a real GDP growth projection by the IMF of just 2.4 per cent in 2023 – as the boost to non-oil GDP from the Fifa World Cup wears off. 

Qatar’s project awards also fell in 2022 following a spike in 2021. The $14bn of awards in 2022 nevertheless remained almost level with the five-year average.

Kuwait also has a slightly lower real GDP projection in 2023, but strong overall fundamentals. Project activity also continues to tick over in the country, albeit at a slower than usual pace. The country has $27.6bn-worth of projects in the bid stage – a figure nearly 10 times the $2.8bn-worth of awards in 2022, which fell well below the $5.6bn average for the preceding five years.

The remaining GCC nations, Oman and Bahrain, and another Gulf energy exporter, Iraq, all also boast healthy current account surpluses. From there however, the countries diverge. 

Oman is in a much better position heading into 2023, having stabilised its fiscal situation and eliminated its deficit. The country also has the lowest forecast consumer price inflation rate in the region heading into 2023, at just 1.9 per cent. Furthermore, the country has a burgeoning $19.7bn-worth of projects in the bid stage that could soon bolster its projects market.

Bahrain continues to struggle with both a persisting fiscal deficit and a debt burden – equivalent to about 120 per cent of its GDP. The country’s projects market slumped in 2022, with the less than $1bn of contract awards compared to $2.6bn in completions.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses. Iraq’s project activity nevertheless fell away in 2022, which saw just $5bn-worth of awards – compared to $17bn the previous year and a $12bn five-year average. The $28bn-worth of projects in the bidding stage could nevertheless make for better things to come.

Egypt’s projects market has recently been in the ascendant, but its broader economic fortunes are now in sharp decline. The full impact of the country’s currency crisis has yet to be revealed, but Cairo already has twin current account and fiscal deficits.

Iraq remarkably sits just below the GCC countries in the index thanks to its oil-fuelled GDP growth and twin double-digit current account and fiscal surpluses

Facing challenges

Algeria, Morocco, Jordan and Tunisia are all struggling to break even in the current economic climate and have double-digit unemployment. This is ironic in the case of Algeria, which is an energy exporter with a current account surplus and yet double-

digit fiscal deficit.

Below this, Iran continues to be hampered by sanctions, creeping economic malaise and an estimated 40 per cent consumer price inflation rate amid a steadily collapsing import subsidies regime.

Libya, despite resurgent oil growth, has nearly 20 per cent unemployment and 50 per cent youth unemployment due to the civil war. Reconstruction efforts in the country also showed signs of stalling in 2022 as the project award value dropped off, with many projects stuck in the bid stage.

Yemen and Lebanon close out the index with dismal economic performances due to their respective ongoing conflict and economic crisis. Remarkably, with almost one-in-three out of work and unchecked inflation, Lebanon is managing to underperform even Yemen.

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the November 2022 index here

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10553253/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Three bids submitted for Riyadh-Qassim IWTP

    18 September 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    State water offtaker Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) has received three bids from the private sector for the development of the Riyadh-Qassim independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project.

    The bids were submitted by two consortiums and one individual company.

    The first consortium comprises Saudi firms Al-Jomaih Energy & Water, Al-Khorayef Water & Power Technologies, AlBawani Capital and Buhur for Investment Company.

    The second consortium comprises Bahrain/Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding, the UAE's Etihad Water & Electricity and China’s Shaanxi Construction Installation Group.

    The third bid was submitted by Saudi Arabia's Vision Invest.

    In August, MEED exclusively reported that SWPC had extended the bid submission deadline again for a contract to develop and operate the project. 

    The deadline for bids was 17 September.

    The project will have a transmission capacity of 685,000 cubic metres a day. It will include a pipeline length of 859 kilometres (km) and a total storage capacity of 1.59 million cubic metres.

    The scheme is the third IWTP contract to be tendered by SWPC since 2022.   

    The first two are the 150km Rayis-Rabigh IWTP, which is under construction, and the 603km Jubail-Buraydah IWTP, the contract for which was awarded to a team of Riyadh-based companies comprising Al-Jomaih Energy & Water, Nesma Group and Buhur for Investment Company.

    Like the first two IWTPs, the Riyadh-Qassim IWTP project will be developed using a 35-year build-own-operate-transfer contracting model.

    Commercial operations are expected to commence in the first quarter of 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14691078/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia seeks firms for six renewable projects

    17 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia's principal buyer, Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC), has invited interested companies to prequalify for the contracts to develop and operate solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind independent power producer (IPP) projects with a total combined capacity of 5,300MW.

    The following schemes comprise round seven of the kingdom's National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP):

    • 1,400MW Tabjal 2 solar PV IPP (Tabrijal, Al-Jouf Province)
    • 600MW Mawqqaq solar PV IPP (Mawqqaq, Hail Province)
    • 600MW Tathleeth solar PV IPP (Tathleeth, Aseer Province)
    • 500MW South Al-Ula solar PV IPP (Al-Ula, Medina Province)
    • 1,300MW Bilgah wind IPP (Bilgah, Medina Province)
    • 900MW Shagran wind IPP (Shagran, Medina Province)

    These projects are part of the NREP, which aims to achieve an optimal energy mix and supply 50% of the kingdom's electricity from renewable energy by 2030.

    Earlier rounds under the NREP have already put in place large capacities.

    Round six solicited around 4,500MW of solar and wind projects:

    • 1,500MW Dawadmi wind IPP  (Riyadh)
    • 1,400MW Najran solar PV IPP (Najran)
    • 600MW Samtah solar PV IPP (Jizan)
    • 600MW Al-Darb solar PV IPP (Jizan)
    • 400MW Al-Sufun solar PV IPP (Hail)

    In April, MEED reported that prequalified developers were forming teams to bid for the contracts to develop solar farms under the sixth round of the NREP.

    A separate set of bidders were prequalified for the 1,500MW Dawadmi wind farm, with contracts due to be awarded before the end of the year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14684103/main3708.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qatar tenders Smaisma infrastructure contract

    17 September 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract inviting construction firms to bid for the remaining works on roads and infrastructure in the small seaside town of Smaisma.

    The contract covers package two in the south area of Smaisma, located 52 kilometres (km) north of Hamad International airport.

    The scope of work includes the completion of the remaining works and remedial works on three zones. Each zone is further divided into three sub-zones.

    The scope also covers the remaining works on road C1017.

    The contract duration is two years from the start of construction works.

    The tender was floated on 15 September with a bid submission date of 28 October.

    The latest notice follows the tendering for the construction of roads and infrastructure in Wadi Al-Banat North (Zone 70).

    Market overview

    After 2019, there was a consistent year-on-year decline in contract awards in Qatar’s construction and transport sectors. The total value of awards in that year was $13.5bn, but by 2023 it had fallen to just over $1.2bn.

    In 2024, the value of project contract awards increased to $1.7bn, bucking the downward trend in the market in the preceding four years.

    Of last year’s figure, the construction sector accounted for contract awards of over $1.2bn, while transport contract awards were about $200m.

    There are strategic projects in the bidding phase in Qatar worth more than $5bn, and these are expected to provide renewed impetus to the construction and transportation market, presenting opportunities for contractors in the near term.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14682452/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dragon Oil to boost exploration and production in Egypt

    17 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai-based Dragon Oil has signed a deal with the state-owned national oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), agreeing to increase exploration and production activities in the Gulf of Suez.

    Under the terms of the agreement, Dragon Oil will make investments worth about $30m.

    This will fund activities including a programme to drill at least two new wells in the East El-Hamd area.

    Abdulkarim Ahmed Al-Mazmi, the acting chief executive of Dragon Oil, said: “The signing of this agreement reaffirms Dragon Oil’s commitment to strengthening its strategic presence in the Arab Republic of Egypt and supporting EGPC’s efforts to develop energy resources in the Gulf of Suez region, in line with the company’s vision for growth and sustainability.”

    Dragon Oil is wholly owned by Emirates National Oil Company, which is fully owned by the Government of Dubai.

    Al-Mamzi said that the new investments are part of Dragon Oil’s broader strategy to expand in regional markets and to strengthen its position in the oil and gas sector, in line with the directions of the government of the UAE, and in particular the Government of Dubai.

    The agreement was signed at the EGPC headquarters in Cairo.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14680456/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Construction launched for final major projects of Iraq’s GGIP

    17 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Officials have announced the start of construction on Iraq’s Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) and the full field development of the Ratawi oil field, which is also known as the Artarwi field.

    The two projects are the two last major contracts of the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP).

    The GGIP is led by France’s TotalEnergies, which is the operator and has a 45% stake in the project.

    Its partners are Iraq’s state-owned Basra Oil Company, which has a 30% stake, and QatarEnergy, which has a 25% stake.

    An event in Baghdad to mark the launch of the two projects was attended by senior officials including Patrick Pouyanne, the chairman and chief executive of TotalEnergies; and Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, as well as the president and chief executive of QatarEnergy.

    In a statement, TotalEnergies said: “All four parts (natural gas, solar, oil, water) of the GGIP are now in the execution phase.”

    The CSSP will be built on Iraq's coast, near the town of Um Qasr. It will process and transport 5 million barrels a day (b/d) of seawater to the main oil fields in southern Iraq.

    Treated seawater will be substituted for the freshwater currently taken from the Tigris, Euphrates and aquifers to maintain pressure in the oil wells.

    The project is expected to help alleviate water stress in the region and free up to 250,000 cubic metres of freshwater a day for irrigation and local agriculture needs, according to TotalEnergies.

    The Ratawi redevelopment was launched in September 2023. Phase one aims to increase production to 120,000 b/d of oil and is expected to come on stream by early 2026.

    The launch of phase two, the full field development, will enable production to be increased to 210,000 b/d starting in 2028, with no routine flaring, according to TotalEnergies.

    In a statement, it said that all 160,000 cubic feet a day (cf/d) of associated gas produced will be fully processed by the 300,000 cf/d Gas Midstream Project (GMP), the construction of which began in early 2025.

    The GMP, which will also treat previously flared gas from two other fields in southern Iraq, will deliver processed gas into the national grid, where it will fuel power plants with a production capacity of approximately 1.5GW, providing electricity to 1.5 million Iraqi households.

    An early production facility to process 50,000 cf/d of associated gas will start in early 2026, together with the Ratawi phase one oil production.

    Pouyanne said: “We are delighted today to award the two final contracts of the GGIP, in particular the seawater treatment plant, which has been long awaited by the oil industry in Iraq.

    “In less than two years since the GGIP effective date in August 2023, TotalEnergies and its partners have fully executed their commitment towards the people of Iraq and launched all projects included in the multi-energy GGIP project, the best showcase of TotalEnergies' transition strategy.

    “All these projects will bring a significant contribution to the Iraq economy and employ during the construction phase 7,000 Iraqi nationals.

    “Furthermore, I am proud to confirm that the first phase of the associated gas, oil and solar projects will start up as soon as early 2026.”

    Turkiye’s Enka has signed a contract to develop a central processing facility at the Ratawi oil field as part of the second phase of the field’s development.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14680455/main.png
    Wil Crisp