UAE growth expansion beats expectations
7 October 2025
Bolstered by sustained economic diversification and a steady rise in exports, the UAE remains poised for robust growth well above the global average of 3% in 2025 and beyond its own growth projections.
Following an estimated 4% real GDP expansion in 2024, the UAE economy is expected to accelerate its expansion to 4.8% in 2025, according to the Washington-based IMF. This is being driven by both strong non‑hydrocarbon activity and a rebound in oil output as Opec+ production cuts recede.
Both GDP figures represent a further step up from the IMF’s April 2025 estimates of 3.8% and 4% for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with the UAE economy consistently outperforming the IMF’s growth expectations.
Despite global economic uncertainty and rising instability, the UAE economy is expected to remain resilient in the near term, with the fund projecting growth will quicken to 5% in 2026.
“The UAE has shown strong resilience to global uncertainty, regional conflicts and oil market volatility … supported by sustained diversification and expanding exports,” said the IMF in its latest statement on the country.
Inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2025, averaging 1.6% – down from an April 2025 IMF estimate of 2.1% – and to hover around 2% in the medium term.
Housing costs remain the primary source of price pressure and a growing concern for affordability, while prices for tradable goods are expected to remain stable.
Property market risk
Concerns over the state of the real estate market are one area where potentially negative assessments hang over the UAE economy.
These concerns are currently concentrated in Dubai, where soaring prices have outpaced average wage rises and prompted warnings of a possible bubble.
UBS, in its Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025 report, has significantly worsened its assessment of risk in the Dubai property market, moving it from 14th to 5th place in its ranking of exposure to a potential market crash.
The rise in Dubai’s risk assessment was the largest increase of any market since the prior edition of the report, and the overall classification for Dubai was raised from ‘moderate’ to ‘elevated’.
Property prices in the Dubai housing market have surged about 70% above pre‑pandemic levels in recent years, according to Knight Frank and JLL data, contrasting with more gradual recoveries in other sectors.
Sales have also shifted towards larger volumes of off‑plan transactions, where prices continue to rise even as growth in ready property prices has levelled off.
In May 2025, ratings agency Fitch issued an assessment pointing to up to a 15% moderation in prices in H2 2025 through 2026, suggesting the market had reached its peak.
Future oversupply was the key concern in the report, which expected new construction projects launched between 2023 and 2024 to add about 250,000 units to the market, with a peak of 120,000 handovers in 2026.
Countering these assessments are arguments that the city’s underlying economic fundamentals and steady population growth will continue to support consistent demand capable of absorbing the expected supply.
The UAE government is also encouraging net immigration through more flexible residency visa arrangements, which, together with property sale incentive schemes, are expected to continue to drive property demand in the near term.
Broader momentum
Other key growth sectors for the UAE include tourism, construction and financial services — all of which continue to support the country’s economic momentum.
The resilience of the country’s financial markets and capital flows despite recent global and regional shocks remains a positive signal for investors.
The UAE is also supporting an investor‑friendly environment through agile regulation of fast‑growing areas, including the emerging market for virtual assets.
This has been complemented by the country’s recent removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, reflecting the government’s enhanced efforts to regulate and combat irregular financial activity.
In the background, the UAE government continues to expand its Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (Cepa) with other countries — supporting diversification of the country’s global trade relations and networks.
Support for the UAE’s resilience is also reflected in a positive trend in the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in September, which saw the non‑oil private sector deliver its best performance in seven months.
After dipping to a recent low in July, the UAE PMI climbed for two straight months to reach its highest level since February in September — buoyed by a resurgence in new order growth as the economy emerged from the softer summer period.
Despite a weaker year overall, with new order growth in particular falling to its lowest point in four years in August, UAE business sentiment nevertheless hit a 10‑month high that same month, even as new orders dipped.
Now, the continuation of overall positive momentum in the index for the second month running suggests that recent concerns, including over geopolitical developments in the region in the form of the Israeli attacks in the Gulf, have been largely shrugged off.
The government appears to be keeping the country’s fortunes on an even keel despite the choppy global economic backdrop.
Taken together, the government’s firm stewardship, momentum in financial markets and robust public and private activity across key growth sectors help explain why the country’s growth continues to exceed expectations.
ALSO READ: Public spending ties the UAE closer together
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Oman’s Barka 5 IWP solar plant begins full operations1 May 2026
Spain’s GS Inima has begun permanent operations at the solar photovoltaic (PV) plant serving the Barka 5 independent water project (IWP) in Oman.
The solar facility is the third of its kind in Oman to power a large-scale desalination facility through a self-supply model.
In a statement, GS Inima said it will provide up to 50% of the desalination plant’s electricity needs during daytime operations, improving efficiency and reducing reliance on external power sources.
The PV plant has an installed capacity of 6.5MWp. It is designed to optimise energy consumption at the adjacent reverse osmosis desalination facility.
The project was developed by GS Inima in collaboration with local firm Nafath Renewable Energy as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor. China-based OCA Global provided owner’s engineering services.
The Barka 5 IWP has a desalination capacity of approximately 100,000 cubic metres a day.
GS Inima won the contract to develop the Barka 5 IWP project in November 2020. As previously reported, financial close was reached in 2022, and construction of the facility was completed in 2024.
The self-supply solar PV plant is equipped with 10,504 bifacial modules supplied by China’s Jinko Solar. These are mounted on fixed structures provided by Mibet Energy.
Power is managed through 18 Sungrow inverters with a total capacity of 320kWac each, while electricity is fed into the desalination plant through an 11kV connection.
The integration of solar power supports the efficiency of the Barka 5 facility, which has an energy consumption rate of 2.7kWh per cubic metre.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16645971/main.jpg -
Qiddiya receives high-speed rail PPP prequalifications1 May 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.
This follows the submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing (EPCF) package on 16 April, as reported by MEED.
The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.
The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of the city.
In November last year, MEED reported that more than 145 local and international companies had expressed interest in developing the project, including 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.
In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.
Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16641057/main.gif -
Bid deadline extensions hint at tighter project market1 May 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThere has been a steady run of bid deadline extensions across major power and water projects in recent weeks.
The latest is the Al-Dibdibah and Al-Shagaya solar independent power producer (IPP) plant in Kuwait, where the submission date has been moved again to 31 May, following an earlier shift from February to the end of April. Similarly, bidding for the first phase of the Al-Khairan IWPP has also been extended.
In Bahrain, bidding for the 1.2GW Sitra IWPP has been pushed back by another month to 17 May, having already been under main contract tender since last August.
Meanwhile, in Dubai, contractors have been given additional time to submit bids for both the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant expansion and a dams rehabilitation project in Hatta.
Individually, these shifts are not unusual, and extensions are a routine part of the procurement cycle, especially with large, capital-intensive schemes.
However, amid regional tensions and increasingly complex risk profiles, stakeholders are having to weigh up how much they can absorb, whether that is performance guarantees, financing exposure or delivery risk.
For contractors and developers, this could mean looking more closely at supply chains, insurance costs and the potential for disruption. Lenders, too, are likely taking a more measured view on long-term exposure.
This caution can show up in the bid process. More internal approvals, more conservative pricing, and in some cases, perhaps a hesitation to commit altogether.
At the same time, strong pipelines across the GCC mean contractors are not short of work. Firms can afford to be selective, focusing on projects where risk and return are better aligned.
Clients, in turn, face a choice. Push ahead with more limited competition or extend and try to draw in stronger participation. Most appear to be opting for the latter.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640998/main.jpg -
Saudi Arabia launches $2bn Jawharat Al-Arous project1 May 2026
Saudi Arabia has launched Jawharat Al-Arous, an SR8bn ($2bn) private-sector-led residential development in north Jeddah.
The scheme covers 107 million square metres and comprises 18 residential neighbourhoods planned to accommodate more than 700,000 residents. It will provide more than 80,000 residential and commercial plots.
The masterplan also includes 41 government-backed infrastructure and service zones to support large-scale urban expansion.
The project was unveiled by Mecca Region Governor Khalid Al-Faisal and will be overseen by Saud Bin Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz.
According to a recent report by real estate firm Cavendish Maxwell, Jeddah’s residential stock stood at about 1.09 million units at the end of 2025, following the completion of around 4,000 units that year.
An expanding pipeline of about 18,000 units in 2026 and 22,000 units in 2027 is expected to bring total stock to around 1.14 million units by 2027, gradually adding supply without destabilising market equilibrium.
GlobalData expects the Saudi construction industry to grow by 3.6% in real terms in 2026, supported by increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and investment in the housing and manufacturing sectors.
The residential construction sector is forecast to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2026 and to record an average annual growth rate of 4.7% between 2027 and 2030, supported by Saudi Vision 2030’s goal of increasing homeownership from 65.4% in 2024 to 70% by 2030, including through the delivery of 600,000 homes by 2030.
MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:
> COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
> GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
> BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
> UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
> POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
> WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
> CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
> TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure pushTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16640863/main.png -
Damage to US bases in region expected to cost more than $15bn1 May 2026
The $25bn estimate a Pentagon official gave US lawmakers on 29 April did not include the cost of repairing damage to US bases in the Middle East, and the real cost of the war is likely to be between $40bn and $50bn, according to CNN.
That would put the cost of repairing bases and replacing destroyed assets at between $15bn and $25bn.
Jules Hurst III, the Pentagon official serving as the agency’s comptroller, told the House Armed Services Committee that “most” of the $25bn he cited had been spent on munitions. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth declined to say whether the figure included repairs to damaged US bases.
Iranian strikes across the Gulf in the early days of the war significantly damaged at least nine US military sites in 48 hours, hitting facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.
Six US servicemembers were killed in an attack on a command post in Kuwait, and 20 more were injured.
Three sources told CNN that the figure provided to the House Armed Services Committee did not include the cost of rebuilding US military installations and replacing destroyed assets.
One source said the true cost would likely be between $40bn and $50bn.
US contractors such as KBR and Fluor, as well as local firms, are likely to be among the leading contenders for contracts to repair and rebuild US bases in the region.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16638663/main.gif