Algeria’s industrial strategy builds momentum

8 July 2025

 

Project activity across Algeria’s energy, industrial and manufacturing sectors is steadily building as the country focuses on a vertically integrated strategy that leverages the exploitation of its natural resources.

The country is making steady progress on projects to extract deposits of gas, lithium, iron and phosphates.

At the same time, it is progressing projects that use these natural resources to produce high-value products within the country, rather than simply exporting the raw materials.

The projects utilising raw materials within Algeria include a wide range of iron and steel processing facilities, fertiliser plants and factories to produce cars.

Upstream gas

Last month, Algeria awarded five out of the six oil and gas exploration licences it offered during its 2024 bidding round, a move viewed as a success by stakeholders in the country’s energy sector.

The companies that were awarded blocks included France’s TotalEnergies, state-owned QatarEnergy, Italy’s Eni and PTTEP of Thailand.

Commenting on the licensing round, one industry source said: “Successfully engaging with large international oil companies that have significant technical and financial resources is a big step forward for Algeria’s oil and gas sector.”

The latest bid round was the first to be held under Law 13-19, Algeria’s current oil and gas investment law, which was issued on 11 December 2019.

The 2019 law replaced a previous law created in 2005, which governed the last bid round in 2014.

During the previous bid round, only four blocks were awarded out of the 31 offered.

If the 2024 bidding round had been unsuccessful like the 2014 bidding round, this would have been a major setback to the country’s oil and gas strategy and raised significant concerns about the suitability of the 2019 law that governs licensing deals.

The latest licensing round was followed by meetings between Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and delegations from US-based oil and gas companies ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Awarding the licences and holding talks with Exxon and Chevron sets the scene for further upstream development projects in Algeria and will potentially boost domestic gas production in the country.

Successfully engaging with large international oil companies that have significant technical and financial resources is a big step forward for Algeria’s oil and gas sector
Industry source

Phosphates push

Extractive projects in Algeria’s mining sector are also making steady progress.

One of the biggest mining projects in the country is the Bled El-Hadba phosphate project, which is estimated to be worth $7bn.

The Bled El-Hadba phosphate mine has over 1.2 billion tonnes of estimated total reserves, including 800 million tonnes of estimated exploitable reserves, making it one of the biggest mines of its kind in the world.

A joint venture deal to develop the project was signed in March 2022 between four Algerian and Chinese companies.

The resulting joint-stock company is called Algerian Chinese Fertilisers Company (ACFC) and the project is expected to ultimately produce 5.4 million tonnes of fertilisers a year from the Bled El-Hadba phosphate mine in the eastern Algerian region of Tebessa.

ACFC was established by the Algerian companies Asmidal and Manadjim El-Djazair (Manal), which own a 56% stake in the company, and the Chinese groups Wuhuan and Tianan, which hold the remaining 44% stake.

Since the deal was signed, the project has seen good progress.

Last month, Saipem was awarded the front-end engineering and design (feed) contract related to the project.

Additionally, the Oued Keberit phosphate production and processing complex, which forms part of the $7bn project and will process phosphates extracted from the mine, is on track to come online in 2027, according to industry sources.

Iron mining

Another key mining project in the country is the Gara Djebilet iron ore mine in Algeria’s western Tindouf province.

The Gara Djebilet mine was commissioned in July 2022, with plans to produce 2 million tonnes a year (t/y) by 2026.

Officials have said they want to boost this to 50 million tonnes of iron ore annually by 2040.

It is expected that boosting production at the facility could require between $7bn and $10bn in investment.

Gara Djebilet is understood to hold the world’s largest iron ore reserves, with an estimated 3.5 billion tonnes at the location, of which around 1.7 billion tonnes are available for exploitation.

The mine is expected to bolster Algeria’s steel industry by reducing the need for iron imports.

Car manufacturing

Low-cost steel is expected to support the country’s expanding automotive sector, which uses steel to produce parts.

In March 2025, Great Wall Motor, one of China’s top 10 car manufacturers, announced plans to build its first factory in Algeria, joining other companies in the country, including Fiat, Peugeot and Kia.

Last November, the Algerian Ministry of Industry & Pharmaceutical Production announced that it had granted permits for six new vehicle manufacturing factories in the country.

In March 2023, the carmaker Stellantis announced plans to spend more than €200m ($213m) to manufacture several Fiat models in Algeria.

The plans involved the construction of a plant, which is yet to come online.

Stellantis stated that it anticipates the plant will generate nearly 2,000 local jobs and have an annual production capacity of 90,000 vehicles upon completion.

Petrochemicals production

Algeria’s growing automotive industry is also expected to use plastics derived from petrochemicals that are produced in the country using Algerian natural gas as a feedstock.

UK-based engineering contractor Petrofac and its partner China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Corporation (HQCEC) are currently executing a petrochemicals project in Algeria, which is valued at approximately $1.5bn.

Petrofac and HQCEC signed the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the Algerian petrochemicals project in June 2023.

The project is being developed in the Arzew Industrial Zone to the west of Algiers and the contract was signed with STEP Polymers, a wholly owned subsidiary of Algeria’s state-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach.

When the contract was signed, Petrofac said that its portion of the project was valued at about $1bn.

The project’s scope includes designing and building two major integrated processing units.

It includes the delivery of a new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit and polypropylene production unit, as well as associated utilities and infrastructure for the site.

It is expected to produce 550,000 tonnes of polypropylene a year.

Additionally, plans are being developed for zinc production projects in the country.

In November last year, Western Mediterranean Zinc (WMZ), an Algerian-Australian joint venture, signed a $336m contract with Sinosteel Equipment & Engineering Company (Sinosteel MECC) to develop the Tala Hamza zinc project in Algeria’s Bejaia Province.

WMZ is a joint venture of Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)-listed Terramin, which has a 49% stake, and Algerian state-owned companies Enterprise Nationale des Produits Miniers Non-Ferreux et des Substances Utiles, which owns 48.5%, and Office National de Recherche Geologique et Miniere, which owns 2.5%.

The project scope included the development of a mine with the capacity to produce two million tonnes a year of zinc and a processing plant with the capacity to process the same volume of material.

It is expected that the production of zinc will support the country’s battery manufacturing industry, which in turn will support the production of electric cars.

Fertiliser focus

The country’s fertiliser sector is expected to expand as phosphate production is ramped up.

Earlier this month, MEED revealed that Sonatrach was developing a project that will expand the country’s fertiliser plant located in Arzew.

Sonatrach has not publicly said when it expects to issue the invitation to bid for the main contract for the project.

The original $2.4bn contract to develop the Arzew fertiliser complex was executed by a joint venture of South Korea’s Daewoo E&C and Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation.

The joint venture won the contract in April 2008 and completed the facility in April 2013.

Steady development

By making steady progress with an integrated strategy that leverages the exploitation of raw materials to support the production of higher-value exports, Algeria is creating an industrial environment that presents significant opportunities for companies across multiple sectors.

If the country’s relative political stability continues, more foreign investors will likely become involved in projects within the country, and the country’s project market will continue to expand.


MEED’s August 2025 report on the Maghreb also includes:

> ECONOMYMaghreb economies battle trading headwinds
> POWER & WATERSlow year for Maghreb power and water awards

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Wil Crisp
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    GCC banks’ fundamentals have proved remarkably resilient to the Iran-related turmoil, assuming the intensity of the February-April stage of the military conflict does not resume.

    There have not been any significant outflows of external funding. While anecdotal evidence suggests some depositors briefly moved funds out of the region at the start of the war, ratings agency S&P Global notes that their return reflects confidence that the war will prove short-lived.

    Funding strength

    Metrics for the early part of the year revealed a robust picture. Domestic deposits held up strongly in the first quarter of 2026, total GCC domestic deposits rising by 16.9% in year-on-year terms, compensating for the decline in interbank funding. 

    State-linked deposits grew at a particularly rapid pace, led by the UAE and Kuwait, which offset decelerating private-sector deposit growth in those countries. 

    Domestic deposits accelerated in April, a pointer to GCC governments’ proactive stances in shielding their banking systems from undue stress. The inflow of public deposits accelerated quite significantly in this period, although that pace will likely subside as conditions gradually normalise. 

    Such deposits continue to underpin GCC banks’ wider performances. “Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region. Government deposits typically make up 20%-30% of the banking sector deposits. That is really important as these are sticky deposits,” says Redmond Ramsdale, head of Middle East ratings at Fitch Ratings.

    Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region

    Gulf states’ heavy reliance on public sector and government-related deposits has proved valuable in the current environment, anchoring banks’ funding profiles and helping reduce potential risks.

    Fund outflows have not materialised to any significant degree. “We had some anecdotal evidence of funds being withdrawn, but they returned in the following weeks,” says Ramsdale.

    Solid fundamentals

    GCC banks entered the conflict period in strong shape. According to S&P, domestic private sector credit growth in the region remained robust in the first quarter – the annualised growth rate was 8% at the end of March. 

    Core capital buffers are about 15%-16% – higher still for the top lenders – ensuring total loss-absorbing capacity stays below 9% of equity. Regulatory ratios exceed relevant thresholds, providing a significant buffer, according to ratings agency Moody’s.

    “If you look at the whole region, the proportion of the lending book that is non-performing, on a weighted average basis, sits around 2%,” says Badis Shubailat, a senior analyst at Moody’s. 

    “Against this solid level of asset quality, you have a cushion of provisions for expected losses that more than covers the existing stock of problem loans, which provides a strong first line of defence.”

    Then, as a second line of defence, are core capital buffers that remain high by global standards, with levels around 15%-16%. Put together, this explains why the banks are sitting on comfortable positions in terms of loss-absorption capacity.

    At the end of Q1 2025, the top 45 GCC banks reported an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 17%, with coverage ratios of 155.8%, according to S&P. 

    “Credit losses are at historical lows of 50 basis points (bps) for the region, and there are very good provisioning buffers – all of which helps to mitigate the negative consequences of the expected asset quality deterioration,” says Tatjana Lescova, director and lead analyst at S&P.

    According to Shubailat, the fact that the conflict impact on GCC banks has not been as pronounced as on other sectors reflects that over the past three years – and until right before the conflict started – the region as a whole, and its banking systems, had demonstrated remarkable resilience. In contrast, major advanced economies were struggling with inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth. 

    “This was visible in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two largest economic diversification engines in the region, which happen to also represent more than two-thirds of total banking system assets,” says Shubailat.

    Limited exposure

    Gulf banks have also been helped by the fact that those economic sectors most impacted by conflict – tourism, hospitality, energy – do not generally form a large part of their collective loans books. 

    “There will be weaker performance of borrowers in the most obvious affected sectors like infrastructure, tourism, logistics, transport and real estate, but tourism is actually a pretty small exposure for the banks – less than 3% of loan books,” says Ramsdale. “There might be a bit of pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are less able to cope with the pressures than the larger corporates, but again, for banks, SME lending is not very big.” 

    Banks’ exposure to the real estate and construction sectors is highest in Qatar – 31% of total credit at the end of March – while the exposure in Kuwait stands at 25%, with Saudi Arabia at 16% and Bahrain at 12%, notes S&P. UAE banks have been consistently reducing their exposure to these sectors, down to 13% at the end of March, compared to 21% at year-end 2020. 

    Moody’s Shubailat says that developers in the UAE sit on solid balance sheets and strong revenue backlogs, while banks’ exposure to the construction sector has declined. “So the quantum is lower, the credit quality of the exposure is better, and the banks are sitting on higher capital and provisioning buffers,” he notes.

    Gulf bankers are not resting on their laurels. They know that even if bad loans have been limited, they cannot forestall the possibility of problem exposures further down the road. 

    “Asset quality deterioration is a risk that we expect to materialise later in the year. This is because of weaker macro expectations, and negative impact on some of the corporate sectors, albeit varying across different GCC countries,” says Lescova.

    On average, for the region, S&P expects 20 bps of increases in credit losses for this year. When it comes to asset quality, the regulatory forbearance measures announced by three central banks will help alleviate the impact.

    Policy support

    Central bank moves have added another layer of support. Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom.

    For example, in mid-March, the Central Bank of the UAE launched a five-pillar resilience package that relaxed capital buffer stipulations, representing more than $272bn in support. 

    Kuwait eased liquidity requirements, raised maximum lending limits and released a portion of the capital conservation buffer to expand refinancing and credit quality absorption capacity. Qatar, meanwhile, has cut the reserve requirement from 4.5% to 3.5% for deposits.

    Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom

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    “They were designed to boost confidence and limit that pass through from temporary deposit volatility. It was not to do with acute banking stress.”

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    Larger banks are better positioned to cope with straitened economic times. They are generally more geographically diversified beyond their domestic markets, and international operations have historically been a growth driver for them. 

    “When there is increased market uncertainty, larger banks may benefit from a flight-to-quality movement, with deposits moved away from smaller banks. Based on Q1 results, only a few smaller banks have reported a contraction in the customer deposits,” says Lescova.

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    “We already expected some softening in profitability before the conflict, because of the normalisation of the cost of risk upwards from incredibly low levels over the last three years, [which] were driven by a very strong recovery performance from the banks,” says Shubailat. 

    “In turn, this current situation adds a layer of pressure to the normalising profitability story by increasing provisioning needs in light of the recent economic shocks,” he adds.  

    Confidence in GCC banks was evident from the outset of the conflict. In early April, Emirates NBD priced a $750m AT1 capital issuance, the first international debt capital markets transaction by a GCC issuer since late February.

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    Such moves should provide reassurance that, despite recent challenges, GCC banks are well placed to ride out the remainder of 2026 and resume the positive trajectory  that was evident before the Iran war shook the region. 

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    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Mark Dowdall