IMF reports decline in Libya’s GDP growth

26 June 2025

The Washington-based IMF has concluded its Article IV consultation with Libya and has reported a decline in real GDP growth.

Growth was about 2% in 2024, down from 10% in 2023. In a statement, the IMF said the drop is mainly due to a contraction in the hydrocarbon sector, although non-hydrocarbon growth has remained robust, bolstered by sustained government spending.

The IMF's assessment indicates that both the current and fiscal accounts have shifted from a surplus in 2023 to a deficit in 2024. Despite these challenges, reported inflation remains low.

Looking ahead, the IMF projects a rebound in real GDP growth in 2025 as oil production increases. Over the medium term, growth is expected to moderate to about 2%. Non-hydrocarbon growth is anticipated to remain between 5% and 6%, supported by ongoing government expenditure.

The current account is expected to post a small surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2025 before transitioning to a small deficit in the medium term, largely due to subdued oil prices.

The IMF outlined several risks to Libya's economic outlook, particularly domestic political instability that could escalate into conflict, disrupting oil production and hindering necessary economic reforms.

The economy’s heavy reliance on oil exports and a significant import bill further expose it to global economic vulnerabilities.

To mitigate these risks, the IMF emphasises the need for Libya to accelerate reforms aimed at reducing fiscal spending and diversifying the economy away from oil dependence.

Key recommendations include establishing a unified budget to enhance fiscal transparency, implementing a well-defined monetary policy framework, and reinforcing the banking sector’s role in economic activity.

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Colin Foreman
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