Middle East tensions could reduce regional gas investments

24 June 2025

Commentary
Wil Crisp
Oil & gas reporter

 

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The recent escalation in violence in the Middle East, which has included missile strikes in Iran, Qatar and Israel, is likely to have a long-term impact on investment by international oil companies (IOCs) in gas infrastructure in the region.

State-owned national oil companies in the region have set out plans for aggressive expansion, driven partly by strategies focused on diversifying their energy sectors.

International oil and gas companies are likely to show reduced enthusiasm for partnering on future projects in the region after the latest spike in violence in the Middle East.

Amid the heightened tensions, senior executives from major oil and gas companies, such as France’s TotalEnergies and US-based Woodside Energy, have highlighted how important it is for them to not be reliant on gas supplies from the Middle East region.

Speaking at the Japan Energy Summit in Tokyo on 18 June, prior to the strikes by the US in Iran and Iran’s attack on Qatar, Patrick Pouyanne, the chairman and chief executive of TotalEnergies, said that geographical diversification is key to his strategy for maintaining reliable supplies of gas to the company’s customers.

He said: “The only answer is … to diversify your source of energy … produce LNG (liquefied natural gas) in different countries. Not only in the Middle East.”

Other executives have commented on their concerns over increased risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern oil and gas exports.

The coast of Iran makes up the northern border of the narrow passage, while the coasts of Oman and the UAE make up the southern border.

Most oil and gas exports from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and the UAE pass through the strait.

Speaking on 19 June, Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell, said that any blockage in the Strait of Hormuz that impacted shipping through the route would have a “huge impact on global trade”.

He also said that Shell “has plans” if the security situation deteriorates in the Middle East, but did not give details of what those plans were.

Speaking on 18 June, Meg O'Neill, the chief executive of Woodside, said: “We’re all watching very closely to understand what does this mean for customers around the world, particularly the 20% or so of global oil and LNG that transits through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Even if there is a de-escalation in tensions in the Middle East in the coming days, it is likely that the latest flare-up will have a long-term impact on sentiment among IOCs when it comes to the Middle East.

The shock of the latest escalation in violence has highlighted how fragile the security situation is in the region, and how easily this can disrupt operations in the energy sector.

While Iraq has so far not been directly impacted by missiles during this latest conflict, its oil and gas sector has been affected, with staff from several oil and gas fields being evacuated.

Italian oil and gas company Eni has reduced staffing levels at the Zubair oil and gas field in Iraq as a precautionary move, according to a spokesperson for the company.

UK-based BP and TotalEnergies have also begun evacuating foreign personnel from Iraqi oil fields where they operate, state-run Basra Oil Company said on 24 June.

While the cheaply extracted hydrocarbons reserves of the Middle East are likely to remain appealing to IOCs, the latest experience of heightened security risks and disruptions will not be forgotten quickly.

IOCs are likely to demand a higher premium to invest in new projects in the region, and projects that can produce LNG in other regions that do not have the same security problems could seem more appealing as a way to secure reliable gas supplies.


READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects index leaps 4.3%
To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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Wil Crisp
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    “It’s both a short-term and long-term strategy. We were a local company just a few years ago, but now we’re positioning ourselves as a global player.”

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    In the UAE, the company has prequalified for the high-speed rail project between Dubai and Abu Dhabi in partnership with a local and a Chinese firm.

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    We were a local company just a few years ago, but now we’re positioning ourselves as a global player

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    The UAE and Turkiye signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa) on 3 March 2023, ending a period of complex relations and ushering in a new era of greater trade and development between the two countries. 

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    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

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    READ THE JUNE 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Gulf accelerates AI and data centre strategy; Baghdad keeps up project spending, but fiscal clouds gather; Banking stocks rise despite lower global oil prices

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

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    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14144718/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
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    Four underground stations will be built as part of the first phase. The overall plan includes 14 stations across the airport.

    The airport’s construction is planned to be undertaken in three phases. The airport will cover an area of 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and have five parallel runways, five terminal buildings and 400 aircraft gates.

    It will be five times the size of the existing Dubai International airport and have the world’s largest passenger handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year. For cargo, it will have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.

    Construction on the first phase has already begun. In May, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to the local firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.

    The enabling works on the terminal are also ongoing and are being undertaken by Abu Dhabi-based firm Tristar E&C.

    While speaking to the press on the sidelines of the Airport Show in May, Khalifa Al-Zaffin, executive chairman of Dubai Aviation City Corporation, said that Dubai will award more packages this year, including the automated people mover and baggage handling system.

    “Several other packages are expected to be tendered this year, including the terminal substructure, 132kV substations and district cooling plants,” Al-Zaffin added.

    The construction works on the project’s first phase are expected to be completed by 2032.

    Dubai tenders Al-Maktoum airport substructure

    Dubai approved the updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April last year.

    The government of Dubai said that the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International airport within 10 years.

    The government statement added that the project will create housing demand for 1 million people around the airport.

    In September last year, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as the lead master planning and design consultants on the expansion of Dubai’s Al-Maktoum International airport.

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    Progress on the project slipped as the region grappled with the impact of lower oil prices and Dubai focused on developing the Expo 2020 site. Tendering for work on the project then stalled with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14132884/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal