UAE is poised to weather the storm
25 April 2025
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor
Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.
Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year.
Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.
The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large.
Economic strength
The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.
The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.
The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.
This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.
Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.
While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.
MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:
> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north
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Exclusive from Meed
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Dubai seeks consultants for drainage projects6 February 2026
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Modon tenders Ras El-Hekma construction contracts6 February 2026
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Egypt contractor secures €58m loan for Hungary power plant6 February 2026
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AD Ports signs Jordan Aqaba port PPP deal6 February 2026
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Chinese firm wins Ceer automotive supplier park deal6 February 2026
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The request for qualifications (RFQs) was issued by the municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department (SRPD).
The bid submission deadline is 26 February.
The first scheme under the package is TF-16-C1, which involves upgrading and rehabilitating the stormwater system east of the Dubai Canal.
The second, TF-15-C2, will deliver stormwater links along Umm Suqeim Road to serve the Al-Barsha and Al-Quoz communities.
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Modon tenders Ras El-Hekma construction contracts
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Abu Dhabi-based developer Modon Holding has tendered several contracts as part of the first phase of development at Ras El-Hekma, a planned new city on Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.
MEED understands that the tenders were issued in January.
These include:
DP3 assets: covering 146 residential villas, 590 three-bedroom townhouses, 356 four-bedroom townhouses, a mall and other associated works.
Bids due on 23 February.
DP4 assets: DP4 includes 54 villas, a clubhouse and other associated infrastructure.
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DP7 assets: 120 five-bedroom villas, 230 seven-bedroom villas, 284 branded residential units and other infrastructural works.
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Modon has accelerated development works at Ras El-Hekma this year. In January, MEED reported that Modon Holding had awarded a E£15bn ($316m) contract for the construction of a project at Ras El-Hekma.
The contract was awarded to the local firm Orascom Construction.
The scope of the contract covers the construction of residential units, commercial facilities and a 70-key hotel.
In September, MEED reported that Modon Holding had tendered contracts for the infrastructure works for the first phase of the Ras El-Hekma project.
As part of the first phase, Modon plans to develop more than 50 million square metres (sq m), including hotels and a marina.
Ras El-Hekma is on a spur of land on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coastline, about 240 kilometres west of Alexandria.
Last year, Abu Dhabi-based holding company ADQ appointed Modon Holding as the master developer for the Ras El-Hekma project.
According to an official statement, Modon will act as the master developer for the entire development, which will cover more than 170 million sq m.
Modon Holding will develop the first phase of the project, which will cover 50 million sq m.
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In September 2024, Modon signed several memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with local and international firms to join the development. It signed a framework agreement with Orascom Construction to serve as the primary contractor for the project’s first phase.
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It was awarded by MVM Matra Energia, a subsidiary of Hungary’s state-owned power holding company Magya Villamos Muvek (MVM).
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AD Ports will manage and operate the port under a 30-year concession agreement.
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AD Ports will hold a 70% stake in the joint venture, with the remaining 30% held by ADC.
AD Ports Group will also invest AED141m ($38.4m) in the joint venture.
The signing ceremony was held at the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority headquarters in Aqaba on 5 February.
The agreement was signed by Hussein Safadi, CEO of ADC, and Ahmed Al-Mutawa, regional CEO of AD Ports Group.
Aqaba port handles about 80% of Jordan’s exports and 65% of its imports.
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The Al-Madouneh customs centre covers about 1.3 million square metres (sq m) and was inaugurated in June last year.
The announcement followed AD Ports Group’s signing of a shareholders’ agreement in January 2024 between its digital arm, Maqta Gateway, and Jordan’s Aqaba Development Corporation regarding their existing joint-venture company, Maqta Ayla.
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Chinese firm wins Ceer automotive supplier park deal
6 February 2026
Beijing-headquartered Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC) has won a contract to undertake the steel structure works on the Ceer automotive supplier park in King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC).
The supplier park is located next to Ceer’s electric vehicle (EV) production facility in KAEC.
The automotive supplier park will include production and ancillary facilities for various suppliers and provide the material supply infrastructure for Ceer’s EV plant.
The facilities include:
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- Seat supplier – Lear Corporation (US)
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Ceer retendered the project in September last year.
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