meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Egypt’s economy gets its mojo back

14 February 2025

 

Egypt’s economy is in stronger fettle than for at least a couple of years, and there is a sense of optimism about how things will transpire in 2025, even as recent pronouncements from the White House about Gaza weigh on policymakers in Cairo.

In a manifestation of that upbeat economic sentiment, Egypt in January staged a return to the international debt capital market for the first time in two years, with a $2bn issuance that was five-times oversubscribed. That was a straw in the wind that foreign investors’ concerns over the economy are finally abating.

After a battering inflicted on Egypt’s economy last year, when economic growth slipped to 2.4%, reflective of a weak currency, surging inflation and tougher public spending restrictions, analysts see a recovery in play that will drive stronger GDP growth in the coming year.

One key contributor to this improvement is the recovery in Suez Canal receipts, which dropped by about three-quarters last year after the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. That loss of $7bn in revenues shaved off more than a percentage point from Egypt’s overall GDP growth rate, noted Moody’s Investors Service.

Growth dynamics are now improving, even if events in the region remain in flux. According to Capital Economics, there was a rise in real GDP growth to 3.5% in Q3 2024, up from 2.4% in Q2 2024. The manufacturing, transport and storage, and finance sectors were the key drivers of that improvement.

Egyptian banks are feeling the positive impact. Credit growth is reviving, with bank lending to the non-government sector growing by 2.9% in October 2024 – the fastest pace in two years.

Operating conditions for Egyptian lenders will continue improve in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings, underpinned by a sharp fall in inflation, along with an expected broadly stable currency, improved investor confidence and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions. This should also support lower interest rates as inflation declines.

Foreign capital injection

Douglas Winslow, senior director at Fitch Ratings, says the improvement in market sentiment follows a combination of factors and is also seen in the return of non-resident inflows totalling more than $10bn into the domestic debt market since early last year.

Egypt's external finances have benefitted from Gulf state interventions, notably the UAE sovereign wealth fund ADQ’s major foreign investment in the Mediterranean resort of Ras El-Hekma, which was announced in 2024.

That deal injected $24bn of new foreign currency into Egypt, the remaining $11bn converting existing UAE foreign currency deposits held at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE).

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has also committed to invest $5bn in Egypt’s economy. 

Such investments, eased by the weaker Egyptian pound – rendering assets more affordable – will also help to address Egypt’s dollar shortages, and assuage residual investor concerns about default risk. 

“The huge Ras El-Hekma investment was a very important factor in the turnaround, and Fitch projects further foreign direct investment (FDI) of $7bn a year above the pre-ADQ position. The lion’s share of that is GCC investment,” says Winslow.

The $24bn of fresh foreign currency puts Egypt in a better place to move to a more flexible exchange rate. 

The combination of these factors has enabled a rapid rebuilding of Egypt’s external coffers, which was the key risk facing near-term external financing. Fitch forecasts FDI to average $16.5bn across the fiscal year ending June 2025 and fiscal year 2026, with new investment from Saudi Arabia having an impact.

Alongside the Gulf support has come multilateral financing, including from Europe. Since March 2024, an $8bn IMF Extended Fund Facility and a €7.4bn ($7.64bn) three-year EU support package have been unlocked.

Together, these capital injections will also help cover Egypt’s current account deficit, which widened to 5.4% of GDP in 2024. Inflation is also headed in the right direction, after reaching a peak of 36% in February 2024. The expectation is that inflation will have more than halved by the end of financial year 2025-26.

Strong growth upside

Looking ahead, the more optimistic prognosis foresees GDP growth accelerating to 5% in the current fiscal year. Others are more circumspect, noting the recent recovery in Suez Canal receipts is very partial and that the government still needs to implement structural economic reform measures.

Fitch Rating’s forecast for GDP growth is 4% for fiscal year 2025. A pickup in growth is already detectable.

“Growth was 3.5% in Q1 of the current fiscal year and we expect it accelerates to just above 5% in fiscal year 2026, close to our assessment of the potential and rate of the Egyptian economy. That’s partly due to further falling inflation and a positive impact on real income,” says Winslow.

Despite these stronger macro metrics, the wider credit assessment is still constrained, due to relatively weak external finances. While the central bank can call upon larger foreign exchange reserves to support the currency, Capital Economics has warned that a return to a heavily managed exchange rate would worry investors and may also call into question IMF and Gulf willingness to provide further financing.

“The IMF programme does contain some wider structural reform measures to improve private sector competitiveness, but in our view, they're not particularly far-reaching, and we're not seeing really sizeable momentum in terms of delivering in this area,” Winslow says.

There is a need for measures to stimulate private sector growth and also to improve the competitiveness of the economy, support the trade balance and reduce the current deficit over the medium term. 

“A better track record of ongoing political commitment to curbing off-budget spending pressures would also help Egypt’s rating,” says Winslow.

As to the potential for regional events to upset things, Egypt's credit fundamentals are at least better insulated from further geopolitical stress.

This, in turn, should give comfort to commercial banks in Egypt. Fitch upgraded the long-term issuer default ratings of all rated banks in November 2024, following the upgrade of Egypt’s sovereign rating.

There are other things that will need to be seen for the Egyptian economy’s recovery to sustain itself over the long-term.

“From a credit perspective, the composition of growth is equally important,” says Winslow.

“What we’ve seen in the past is that very large government off-budget megaprojects have not just led to weaker public finances, they've also contributed to external financing stress. So, what's particularly important is that the recent steps to try and better monitor and contain these off-budget infrastructure projects continues.”

MEED’s March special report on Egypt also includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Egypt is in the eye of Trump’s Gaza storm
> POWER & WATER: Egypt’s utility projects keep pace
> CONSTRUCTION: Coastal city scheme is a boon to Egypt construction

READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW

Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.

Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:

> WATER & WASTEWATER: Water projects require innovation
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13385133/main.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Algeria tenders upstream oil project contract

    25 June 2026

    Algeria’s state-owned national oil and gas company, Sonatrach, has tendered a contract for the development and rehabilitation of the central processing facility (CPF) at the Bir Berkine oil and gas field.

    The scope of the contract includes the study, supply, construction and commissioning of a project to rehabilitate the CPF facilities at the field, which is located in the Hassi Mesaoud region.

    Sonatrach says in the tender documents that the objective of the project is to ensure the continuity of production activities “under stable and secure operating conditions”.

    It also says the project aims to improve production yields and quality.

    The contract includes both initial and detailed studies as well as the supply of all equipment and materials.

    It also includes the execution of works, the assembly of all equipment and materials, and the commissioning of all relevant facilities.

    The tender has a two-stage submission process, with the first stage requiring technical bids to be submitted by 23 August.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17423013/main3916.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Chinese firm wins $265m Saudi hospital contract

    24 June 2026

    Zhejiang Construction International, the local subsidiary of Chinese contractor Zhejiang Construction Investment Group, has won a $265m contract to build the Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University Speciality Hospital in Al-Khobar.

    Construction is expected to take three years from the start date.

    Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University awarded the contract.

    Located in Al-Raja district, Al-Khobar, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, the hospital project will cover about 60,000 square metres.

    The contract covers the construction of a 10-storey hospital building, two five-storey auxiliary buildings connected by corridors and a basement.

    Work will include civil works, mechanical and electrical installation, curtain walling, landscaping, detailed design and the procurement of medical equipment.

    The award is the latest in a series of contracts secured by Chinese contractors from Saudi entities in recent months.

    Last week, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipalities & Housing awarded contracts worth more than SR1.9bn ($506m) to Chinese contractors for two residential developments in the kingdom.

    China Architectural Construction Corporation won the first contract, valued at SR875m ($233m), to build 2,010 housing units at the Al-Ruba residential project in Riyadh.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation secured the other contract, valued at more than SR1bn ($266m), for the Al-Rasha Al-Faisaliah residential project in Dammam, comprising 2,426 housing units.

    GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia’s construction industry to record average annual growth of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17412846/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait extends deadline for $718m drainage tender

    24 June 2026

     

    Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works (MPW) has extended the deadline for a major drainage tender estimated to be worth about KD222m ($718m).

    The new bid submission deadline is 19 July.

    The tender scope covers the construction of rainwater drainage networks across the residential areas of Sabah Al-Ahmad, South Sabah Al-Ahmad, Al-Khairan and Al-Wafra.

    The MPW floated the tender on 22 March. The most recent deadline was 21 June.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the works include the construction of a major concrete sewer, three collection basins and extensive stormwater drainage basins.

    Rainwater collection tanks will be connected through an independent network, with outlets to the sea via the Nuwaiseeb exit to manage overflow.

    The infrastructure will also filter pollutants such as oils, minerals and sediments to protect water quality and support environmental sustainability.

    The project aims to reduce surface runoff, prevent street and urban flooding, and improve groundwater recharge.

    Kuwait’s MPW currently has several contracts out for tender for infrastructure works across various parts of the country.

    Also, in March, the client released two additional tenders covering the construction of a treated water system in Kuwait’s southern region and another in Kuwait’s northern region.

    Bids for both projects are due by 28 June.

    Meanwhile, the MPW is planning to begin construction of the $3.3bn North Kabd sewage treatment plant, which has a planned capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) won the contract to build the plant earlier this year.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17411675/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractor wins Emaar Dubai Harbour project deal

    24 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Local construction firm Al-Sahel Contracting Company has won a contract to build The Bristol Luxury Hotels & Resorts project in Dubai.

    The contract was awarded by local real estate developer Emaar Properties.

    The Bristol Luxury Hotels & Resorts is located at Emaar Beachfront in Dubai Harbour.

    The project comprises a 54-storey mixed-use building with about 150 hotel keys and 227 one- to four-bedroom apartments.

    Enabling works have been completed by local firm Dutch Foundation.

    Dubai-based Mirage Leisure & Development is the project’s consultant.

    Construction is expected to be completed by 2028.

    The contract award follows Emaar’s appointment of Dubai-based Aroma International Building Contracting to build the Address Grand Downtown tower.

    The award also comes shortly after Emaar reported strong operating momentum in 2025, led by record property sales of AED80.4bn ($21.9bn), up 16% year on year.

    The company’s revenue backlog from property sales rose to AED155bn ($42bn), supporting visibility on future revenue recognition.

    Total revenue for 2025 reached AED49.6bn ($13.5bn), a 40% year-on-year increase. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation grew 33% to AED25.6bn ($7bn), while net profit before tax rose 36% to AED25.7bn ($7bn).

    Emaar’s platform continued to support performance across property development, malls, hospitality, leisure and international operations.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17411104/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia launches new mineral exploration licensing round

    24 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry & Mineral Resources (MIMR) has launched its tenth round of a mineral exploration licensing competition, qualifying 24 local and international companies and consortiums to participate.

    The exploration opportunities offered under Round 10 cover about 13,000 square kilometres across the regions of Medina, Mecca, Riyadh, Qassim and Hail. They encompass several highly prospective mineralised belts that are said to contain significant deposits of gold, copper, silver, zinc and nickel.

    One of the key areas offered in the round is the Nabithah-Ad Duwayhi (Dahlat Shabeb) Belt, which hosts the Ad-Duwayhi Mine, one of Saudi Arabia’s largest gold-producing operations, with annual production of approximately 180,000 ounces of gold.

    Other notable exploration zones include the Sukhaybarat-Al-Safra Belt, recognised for its gold and base metals potential and home to the Sukhaybarat and Bulghah mining operations, as well as the Al-Nuqrah Belt, known for substantial gold resources and volcanogenic massive sulphide mineralisation rich in copper and zinc.

    According to MIMR, 17 companies that previously qualified under Round 9 have retained their eligibility, while seven additional companies and consortiums successfully completed the Round 10 prequalification process.

    The newly qualified bidders in Round 10 are:

    • Anaam Al-Qarat for Trading / Sahara Mining Company consortium
    • Danakali / Masadar Al-Zamarda for Mining consortium
    • Power Metallic Mines 
    • PT ANTAM Tbk
    • Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden)
    • Thurb Al-Hayya for Trading Company
    • Wildsky Resources

    The previously qualified participants from Round 9 are:

    • Al-Ghazal Al-Arabi Mining Company
    • Almasar Minerals Holding
    • Al-Tasnim Enterprises
    • Aurum Global Group
    • Batin Al-Ard for Gold Company
    • China National Geological and Mining Corporation
    • DesertEx 
    • Eqleed-Indotan Mining Company
    • Helderberg 
    • Jacaranda Minerals
    • Midana Exploration
    • Royal Road Arabia
    • Saudi Gold Refinery 
    • Sierra Nevada Gold
    • Sun Peak Metals
    • The Distinguished Consortium Mining Company
    • Vedanta 

    In a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency, MIMR said exploration licence competitions are conducted through a structured three-stage process designed to ensure transparency, competitiveness and equal opportunity for all participants.

    The process begins with prequalification assessments covering technical expertise and financial capability, followed by a site-selection phase through the ministry’s digital mining platform, Taadeen. Where multiple bidders compete for the same exploration site, the process advances to a public, multi-round bidding stage, with licences awarded based on exploration expenditure commitments and predefined evaluation criteria.

    The next phase of Round 10 will allow qualified bidders to select available exploration sites via the Taadeen platform, in accordance with established procedures that promote fair competition and enable companies to pursue opportunities aligned with their technical capabilities and investment strategies.

    ALSO READ: Aramco and Maaden seek to form joint venture

    “The continued participation of major international and regional mining companies reflects growing confidence in Saudi Arabia’s mining sector and the effectiveness of its transparent licensing framework,” MIMR said in its statement.

    Jarrah Aljarrah, a ministry spokesperson, said increasing participation in successive exploration licensing rounds demonstrates growing investor confidence in the kingdom’s mining ecosystem, supported by regulatory reforms, improved availability of geological data, transparent licensing mechanisms and a steadily expanding pipeline of exploration opportunities.

    Saudi Arabia’s metals and mining sector is pivotal to the country’s non-oil growth trajectory. Commercial exploitation of the kingdom’s mineral resource base – most of which remains untapped – is a key component of the Saudi Vision 2030 socio-economic transformation strategy.

    The kingdom took a first step towards realising the commercial potential of its mineral resources when it enacted the Mining Investment Law in 2021. Since the law came into effect, MIMR has awarded about 3,248 mining permits to local and foreign firms under its accelerated exploration initiative, including alone.

    Addressing the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh in January 2024, Bandar Alkhorayef, the kingdom’s minister of industry and mineral resources, said Saudi Arabia’s natural resources are worth $2.5tn – an increase of more than 90% compared to the 2016 estimate.

    This near-doubling of natural resource estimates – which exclude fossil fuels and include phosphate, gold and rare earths – is expected to provide a stimulus to the kingdom’s nascent mining industry.

    ALSO READ: Maaden mineral resources grow by 7.8 million ounces
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17398549/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen