Liquidity constraints force corporate banking shift
5 February 2025
Corporate lenders face a liquidity crunch as businesses struggle to maintain cash flow amid rising costs and tighter credit conditions. Credit constraints have worsened, with 5% of middle-market borrowers now heavily leveraged and unable to refinance, according to credit rating firm KBRA. At the same time, rising fraud and outdated payment infrastructures are compounding the liquidity challenge.
Payment fraud losses are expected to reach $26.4bn by 2028, according to GlobalData, making cash flow forecasting even more unpredictable. Increasing cyber threats, unauthorised fund transfers and fraudulent transactions directly impact liquidity buffers, forcing businesses to enhance treasury functions.
Slow settlement cycles and outdated infrastructure continue to choke liquidity, restricting businesses’ ability to manage cash flow. To stay competitive, lenders must rethink their support for corporate clients by ensuring faster access to funds, smarter risk controls and seamless financial integration.
The pressure to deliver faster, more secure and smarter financial solutions is increasing. Innovations such as real-time payments (RTPs), artificial intelligence (AI)-driven risk models and embedded finance address these needs by enhancing liquidity management, improving credit allocation and streamlining cross-border transactions. Lenders that fail to adapt risk losing corporate clients to more agile competitors.
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AI reshapes liquidity strategy
AI is transforming liquidity management, shifting from a compliance and fraud detection tool to a key driver of treasury optimisation. Lenders are using AI-powered forecasting to improve treasury operations, helping businesses anticipate cash flow needs, automate funding decisions and optimise capital allocation.
HSBC’s AI-driven treasury solutions have improved forecasting accuracy by 92%, reducing liquidity risk for businesses operating across multiple markets. JP Morgan has also adopted AI-driven liquidity forecasting, enabling clients to optimise cash reserves and enhance working capital efficiency.
AI optimises liquidity management while strengthening security, helping lenders counter fraud and financial crime in an increasingly digital landscape. Lenders are leveraging AI’s predictive power to detect anomalies and security threats before they escalate.
Fraud detection remains a key priority as financial crime becomes more sophisticated. Many lenders are deploying AI to enhance fraud detection and risk mitigation. For instance, Mastercard and Stripe use AI-driven risk models, analysing over 1,000 transaction data points per second to detect fraud in real time.
Integrating AI into treasury services not only enhances operational efficiency but also positions lenders as strategic partners, offering data-driven insights that strengthen corporate client relationships.
Real-time payments drive liquidity optimisation
RTPs are now central to working capital strategies, not just a speed upgrade. Corporate clients increasingly expect instant settlements and real-time liquidity visibility as standard banking features.
The global RTP market is projected to surpass $700tn by 2028, according to GlobalData, as demand grows for seamless cross-border transactions, reduced credit dependency and faster cash conversion cycles. This shift is critical for treasury and finance teams, which require greater control over cash positions to navigate fluctuating market conditions.
Payment infrastructure providers such as Swift GPI and Visa B2B Connect have already streamlined high-value international transactions, reducing settlement times from days to minutes. These advancements are reshaping corporate banking priorities, with lenders expected to embed real-time payment capabilities within their broader treasury services.
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Embed finance or lose relevance
Corporate banking is shifting away from traditional, bank-led services as embedded finance transforms how businesses access payments, liquidity and credit directly within their operational platforms. By integrating financial products within enterprise platforms and enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, companies reduce dependence on external bank portals.
GlobalData forecasts that corporate embedded finance will exceed $7tn by 2030, driven by demand for frictionless cash flow management, instant access to financing and automated treasury functions. Businesses are embedding banking services within their digital ecosystems, integrating payments, lending and cash management into their core platforms.
Major banks are already adapting. Goldman Sachs and Citi have developed embedded lending and treasury tools that integrate directly into ERP systems, enabling businesses to initiate payments, access credit and manage liquidity without switching platforms.
Banks that fail to embed financial solutions risk losing visibility over corporate transactions. Institutions that successfully integrate embedded finance into their offerings will strengthen corporate relationships and secure long-term revenue streams. Conversely, delaying digital integration may result in businesses managing financial operations independently within their own platforms, reducing banks’ role in liquidity management.
How lenders must adapt to the liquidity shift
The future of corporate banking is being shaped by AI-driven treasury solutions, real-time payments and embedded finance—all of which are rapidly transitioning from competitive advantages to industry standards.
For banking leaders, this shift demands immediate action.
Corporate clients are no longer just looking for lenders – they need strategic partners who can provide seamless liquidity management, intelligent forecasting and embedded financial solutions.
Banks that embrace these innovations will strengthen corporate relationships, drive new revenue models and maintain relevance in a shifting financial landscape. Those that hesitate risk being replaced by more agile, tech-driven competitors offering faster, smarter and more integrated financial services.
Exclusive from Meed
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PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction
13 June 2025
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US Army awards more regional work
12 June 2025
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WEBINAR: Saudi Gigaprojects 2025
12 June 2025
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PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction
13 June 2025
There is cause for optimism in Jordan’s construction and infrastructure sectors after the government took steps to implement its Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV) 2023-25.
The EMV – Amman’s flagship vehicle for its reform proposition – aims to increase average real income per capita by 3% a year, create 1 million jobs and more than double the country’s GDP over 10 years. The programme calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73% of the total $58.8bn of required investment.
For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering areas such as water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction.
Earlier this year, the PPP unit at Jordan’s Ministry of Investment announced that it is targeting seven key PPP projects in 2025.
Construction projects
One of the primary components of the PPP initiative is the scheme to build 17 schools under a PPP model. Being overseen by the Ministry of Education, the scheme will be developed using a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer model and will be undertaken in several phases across the country.
The UAE-backed Marsa Zayed mixed-use project in Aqaba is the other large-scale construction scheme that has made a head start this year and is expected to provide opportunities in the short term. In February this year, Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group selected Dubai-based real estate developer Mag Group to lead the first phase of the project, which is called Riviera Heights.
The scheme will be developed as a beachfront resort and residential community on the Red Sea coast in Aqaba and will cover an area of 3.2 million square metres. The first phase comprises four residential towers, a marina with 1,260 residential and 117 retail units, a hotel and hotel apartments with a beach club, an old souq marketplace with 50 retail shops, a yacht club and a visitors’ centre. It also includes the restoration of Aqaba’s minaret.
The other major project progressing in Jordan is the second phase of the Abdali mixed-use project in Amman. In May, the client announced that it had started the infrastructure work for the second phase, paving the way for the project to move forward.
The second phase is expected to include constructing a multi-use conference centre that can accommodate 25,000 people, as well as two towers housing hotels, residential apartments, commercial centres and advanced medical facilities.
Infrastructure improvements
Jordan is also developing some major infrastructure schemes in the country, most on a PPP basis. The most prominent is the construction of a phosphate railway line, which is being developed by the UAE’s Etihad Rail.
The detailed study on the railway alignment and requirements for handling potash and phosphate is expected to be completed by the end of this year, followed by the main contract tenders early next year.
In September last year, Etihad Rail announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding worth $2.3bn with Jordan’s Transport Ministry and local companies to develop the project on a build, operate and maintain basis.
The other significant project out in the market is the new silica terminal in Aqaba. In May, Jordan’s Aqaba Development Corporation set 25 May as the deadline for firms to express interest in developing the project.
The project will be developed on a build, operate and transfer (BOT) basis with a 20-year concession period.
For airports, a key move came in February, when Jordan extended Airport International Group’s BOT concession of Queen Alia International airport until 2039. The agreement is a crucial step in securing long-term investments in the airport’s infrastructure, expansion and operations.
Some of the key projects that will be undertaken to boost the airport’s passenger capacity to 18 million annually include installing nine security gates, upgrading the water supply, enhancing security checkpoints, developing a solar farm and conducting studies for runway rehabilitation.
Another major project that is currently in the market is the construction of a light rail between Amman and Zarqa, which will extend to Queen Alia International airport.
In July last year, Jordan’s Hejaz Railway Corporation issued a tender to conduct a feasibility study for the project. The rail line will have a length of about 65 kilometres and the capacity to transport 40,000-50,000 passengers daily.
Other infrastructure PPP schemes that Jordan says it is negotiating this year include the development of the 15.82km-long King Abdullah II Road, the 14.7km-long Amman-Ajloun toll road, the rehabilitation and toll operation of the first segment of the 42km Amman Development Corridor, a bus rapid transit project and the King Hussein bridge land border crossing terminal project.
On the back of these schemes, the short-term outlook for Jordan’s construction infrastructure market will be buoyed by a confluence of positive opportunities that promise to invigorate what have been largely dormant construction and infrastructure sectors in the past decade.
With the government’s commitment to large-scale infrastructure and construction projects, there is a renewed sense of optimism among investors and stakeholders. The anticipated influx of foreign direct investment, coupled with strategic partnerships in public-private ventures, is set to create a ripple effect that will stimulate job creation and enhance Jordan’s economy.
MEED’s July 2025 report on Jordan also includes:
> ECONOMY: Jordan economy nears inflection point
> GAS: Jordan pushes ahead with gas plans
> WATER: Record-breaking year for Jordan’s water sectorhttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14065176/main.gif -
UAE banks post strong Q1 profit on lending and deposits
13 June 2025
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The UAE’s 10 largest listed banks began 2025 with a robust profit rebound. Aggregate net income rose 8.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to AED22.2bn ($6bn), driven by corporate and wholesale lending, along with healthy deposit inflows.
This lifted return on equity to 18.6% and return on assets to 2.1%, despite a 2.1% decline in net interest income, according to a recent report by Alvarez & Marsal.
The IMF cut its 2025 GDP forecast to 4.0% in April, down from 5.1% in October 2024. In contrast, the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index held at 54.7 in Q1, showing that non-oil activity stayed on an expansionary footing.
Despite the CBUAE’s rate cuts in Q1, lending appetite remained subdued as the effects of prior tightening continued to weigh on demand.
UAE banks therefore started the year with a cautious stance in terms of mergers and acquisitions. M&A activity was limited to Emirates NBD’s mandatory offer for the remaining 0.11% of Emirates Islamic Bank at AED11.95 a share. Emirates NBD also received approval to begin due diligence on a $1bn acquisition of Egypt’s Banque du Caire, aligned with Cairo’s IMF reform programme.
The report notes the UAE economy will be supported by strong non-oil activity and diversification efforts, but remains constrained by extended Opec+ output cuts and ongoing conflicts in major oil-importing nations.
Aggregate interest income dropped 5.8% QoQ, while fee and commission income surged by 18%, and impairment charges declined sharply by 59.3%, highlighting a shift toward fee-generating services and improved asset quality.
Credit growth was driven by corporate and wholesale lending, with net loans and advances rising 3.6%. Deposit growth outpaced lending, increasing 5.8% driven by a 7.6% jump in current and savings account (CASA) balances, bringing the loan-to-deposit ratio down to 74.7%.
Cost efficiency improvements helped offset margin pressures. Operating expenses fell 7.8% QoQ, reducing the cost-to-income ratio to 28.2%, the lowest in a year despite a 15 basis point compression in net interest margins to 2.52%, following central bank rate cuts.
Asset quality also improved significantly. The cost of risk declined 45 basis points to 0.29%, non-performing loans dropped to 3.2% of gross credit, and coverage rose to 110.5%, supported by recoveries and prudent provisioning.
Stage 1 loans increased by 3.9% QoQ, while Stage 2 and 3 exposures declined, reflecting better credit health.
Banks also cut costs and broadened revenue streams through a wave of digital launches: the UAE’s first domestic card scheme, Jaywan, went live with broad acceptance; ADCB rolled out its Meedaf fintech venture using AI and blockchain; Emirates NBD added crypto trading to its Liv X app in partnership with Aquanow and Zodia Custody; and Tap Payments secured a CBUAE licence to boost its commercial payments business.
Cross-border and corporate partnerships also gained pace: Dubai Islamic Bank raised its stake in Turkiye’s TOM Group to 25%; Commercial Bank of Dubai and Emirates NBD integrated JP Morgan’s Liink for faster cross-border payments; and Abu Dhabi’s ADQ, IHC and First Abu Dhabi Bank plan a dirham-backed stablecoin as the UAE deepens its crypto investments.
Real estate and construction lending grew modestly, rising to 14.4% of gross loans from 14.0% in Q4 2024, in line with Dubai’s buoyant property market. Q1 real estate transactions in Dubai reached $31bn, up 23.1% year-on-year, while Abu Dhabi’s volumes grew to $6.9bn, marking a 34.5% increase.
The global banking sector outlook remains uncertain amid prospects of a trade war, concerns about potential trade tensions, a slowdown in the global economy and volatility in crude prices.
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US Army awards more regional work
12 June 2025
The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Middle East District has awarded an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) task order contract to a US joint venture of Parsons and Versar.
Under the terms of the three-year contract, which is worth up to $75m, the group will provide general architect and engineering construction phase support services across the region.
Typically, such contracts cover services such as onsite quality assurance and oversight of construction supervision, review of construction project submittals, laboratory testing of construction materials and responses to construction requests for information.
The contract is the third major deal awarded by the USACE Middle East District this year. In February, it awarded a $48m contract to Kuwait’s Arabi Company for the maintenance and support of the Kuwaiti Ministry of Defence infrastructure and military platforms.
Earlier the same month, it awarded a $29m contract to the US’ MVL Builders for the first phase rebuild of the Beirut naval base.
P-563 programme
The IDIQ contract is the latest in a series of similar active contracts covering the region. The largest, awarded to a single firm, was the $290m task order to Spain’s Typsa covering the programme management of the Saudi Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) P-563 programme.
Located to the northwest of Riyadh, the P-563 programme includes the development of facilities and infrastructure to support the overall MoD initiatives developed as part of the kingdom's Vision 2030 strategy.
It covers the construction of:
- A new military city with MoD headquarters; consolidation, support and logistics facilities; a residential and commercial community; and other future commands
- A National Defence University with a library, conference centre and academic buildings
- A self-sustaining Joint Forces Command compound located approximately 50 kilometres from the military city
IDIQ contracts
Under the programme, IDIQ contracts totalling up to $700m have been awarded for various design services to US architectural firms HOK, SOM, Gensler, Jacobs, Scott Brownrigg and the US office of Canada’s WSP.
The latter, with support from the US’ Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture, is currently handling the design of the MoD’s headquarters under a contract worth about $72m. The iconic building, which has an estimated value of $9.8bn, will serve as the Mod's primary office, providing working space for about 13,500 staff.
It will be the central component of the new military city, which itself has an estimated development value of $7.1bn, supporting some 25,000 military personnel. The Saudi Arabia National Defence University (Sandu) will be built to the south of the military city and has an estimated construction cost of about $2.4bn.
The development cost of the Joint Forces Command compound is estimated at $1.2bn.
On the construction side, the largest deal, worth up to $900m, covers the development of facilities to support the installation and operations of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) platform in Saudi Arabia, with five local contractors in the IDIQ pool.
Another large IDIQ contract, worth up to $449m, covers the expansion and upgrade of various military facilities across the kingdom. Four Turkish, US, Kuwaiti and Greek contractors are in the pool.
The US has about $3.5bn-worth of foreign military sales construction and maintenance contacts active in the region. Going forward, it is planning 60 projects with a total potential value of about $7.9bn.
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WEBINAR: Saudi Gigaprojects 2025
12 June 2025
Date & Time: Wednesday 25 June 2025 | 11:00 AM GST
Agenda:
1. Latest update on the gigaprojects programme and the Saudi projects market in general, with full data analysis of the first five months of 2025
2. Assessment of recent managerial changes on some gigaprojects plus insight on the ‘pause’ in gigaprojects spending last year and its impact
3. Analysis on the latest contracts and spending up to the end of May 2025
4. Highlights of key contracts to be awarded over the next six months
Autodesk will further explore how technology is transforming the delivery of giga-scale developments – from early concept through design, construction and final handover. This session will highlight how digital workflows, collaboration platforms and data-driven processes are enabling faster decision-making, improving coordination and streamlining execution.
1. Biggest challenges facing the projects market over the next five years
2. The role of digital transformation and artificial intelligence and how they help project delivery
3. Best approach for workflows with digital products with regard to industrialised construction
4. How digital products improve sustainability efforts
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Adnoc suspends project to expand underground storage facility
12 June 2025
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has suspended a project to expand its Al-Mandous underground crude oil storage project in the emirate of Fujairah.
Al-Mandous is the world’s largest underground oil storage facility, with a capacity of 42 million barrels of crude oil. The facility consists of three underground storage caverns, each with a capacity of 14 million barrels, deep below ground level.
Adnoc awarded a $1.2bn contract to South Korea’s SK Engineering & Construction in February 2019 to execute the first phase engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the Al-Mandous underground oil storage complex project.
As part of the planned expansion phase, Adnoc intended to add 25 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity to the facility, according to sources.
The Abu Dhabi energy giant issued an expression of interest (EoI) document for the Al-Mandous second phase project on 18 April last year, MEED previously reported. Invited contractors submitted responses to the EoI document by 10 May 2024.
Adnoc, at the time, said it intended to issue the tender for the main EPC works on the Al-Mandous second phase project in the first quarter of 2025.
However, the state energy enterprise did not issue a tender for the project this year. In a notification sent to contractors that had expressed interest in participating in the project on 10 June, Adnoc said it was suspending the project until further notice, sources told MEED.
The aim of the Al-Mandous second phase project was to build underground storage units in mined rock caverns in Fujairah that could store different crude grades. The planned project also consisted of associated facilities such as utilities units, substations, a seepage water treatment plant, import and export facilities, and tie-ins to the Adnoc main oil terminal and the existing Al-Mandous storage complex.
The front-end engineering and design (feed) works on the project were being jointly carried out by Adnoc Onshore – an Adnoc Group subsidiary – and Geostock, a France-based storage facility consultancy firm, MEED reported.
Geostock was previously also appointed by Adnoc Onshore to perform feed works on the first phase of the Al-Mandous project, as well as on another underground crude storage project at the Jebel Dhanna terminal in Abu Dhabi.
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