UAE maintains regional economic edge
14 January 2025

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues.
In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.
One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.
At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.
In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.
Strong lead
The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.
Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.
Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.
Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.
Moderate activity
Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.
Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.
Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.
Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.
All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.
Much improved
Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.
Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.
Market stragglers
Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.
Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.
The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.
Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.
Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.
Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.
ABOUT THE INDEX
MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.
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Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift27 March 2026
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editorThe headline story of Saudi Arabia’s project economy in 2026 is what is no longer being built: The Line deferred. The Mukaab suspended. Trojena stripped of its marquee event. Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is in a period of readjustment, pivoting away from prestige-driven capital expenditure towards deliverable priorities.
Operation Epic Fury changes none of this. The pivot was already under way following the Public Investment Fund’s board review in late 2024, which cut budgets across more than 100 investee companies by up to 60%. However, the Iran war has helped accelerate and clarify the shift.
Grasping the full picture of this pivot, it is less austere than it might appear. Project awards declined in 2025, but remained above historical averages, resulting in a net gain for the sector.
Activity generally remains strong. Saudi Arabia’s rail network is expanding on multiple fronts: the Jeddah Metro Blue Line has returned to procurement, while high-speed and national rail projects are advancing. Desalination capacity is forecast to nearly double by 2031, and wind power contract values surged by 175% in 2025. Saudi Aramco is maintaining high capital expenditure in 2026, focused on offshore projects and gas production.
These programmes may not attract the global attention of a 170-kilometre mirrored city, but they share something gigaprojects often lacked: a clear functional return. Water security, energy diversification, transport connectivity and domestic gas supply are the load-bearing infrastructure of a modern economy. The kingdom is now building that infrastructure again in earnest.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made the strategic logic of this reorientation even harder to ignore. Glitzy projects do not secure borders. By contrast, a country that cannot guarantee the security of its export corridors is strongly incentivised to invest in infrastructure that supports its domestic economic base and strengthens resilience. Every desalination plant, rail link and gigawatt of renewable capacity reduces Saudi Arabia’s exposure to external shocks.
The medium-term direction was already clear: capital was being redeployed from speculative projects towards infrastructure with bankable returns. That rationale has now gained additional strategic weight.
As Saudi Arabia’s project economy matures, what is emerging is less photogenic but far more defensible: the infrastructure backbone that Vision 2030 always required, and that the kingdom’s exposure to regional instability now demands. The Iran war did not create this shift, but it has removed any remaining argument for reversing it.

MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:
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> BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
> UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
> DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
> POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
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Remaking construction in Saudi Arabia27 March 2026

As the Public Investment Fund (PIF) took a leading role in developing projects following the launch of Vision 2030, it quickly realised that Saudi Arabia’s construction sector needed support if the kingdom was to achieve its broader economic ambitions.
The PIF’s National Development Division (NDD) is the entity tasked with building capacity and capability in the construction sector to support PIF projects and other strategically important schemes in the kingdom.
“Our job is to facilitate the development of the local value chains, which are essential to support the development and operations of PIF portfolio companies,” says Leyla Abdimomunova, head of real estate and construction, National Development Division, PIF.
The scale of this undertaking requires a multi-front strategy, targeting everything from consultancy services and contracting capacity to raw materials and advanced technologies.
“The focus is on design and construction services, building materials, construction equipment and the value chain for all things in construction technology. This work requires engagements with stakeholders within the PIF portfolio: development and contracting companies where PIF has a share,” says Abdimomunova. “We also work closely with governmental stakeholders – including the Ministry of Municipalities & Housing, the Ministry of Investment and the Ministry of Industry & Mineral Resources – alongside our private sector partners, to ensure alignment across the ecosystem.
“This collaboration approach is essential to addressing market challenges holistically and creating an environment where businesses can invest, grow and participate more effectively in Saudi Arabia’s development,” she notes.
Unified strategy
The integrated approach was born out of necessity.
“When we started this work five years ago, the initial challenge we dealt with was the shortage of the local supply of construction services and materials,” says Abdimomunova.
To bridge the gap, the NDD looked to both support local players and attract international firms.
“The focus was on the localisation of the supply chain, bringing the manufacturing capacity into the kingdom by either expanding the existing capacities of local players or installing new capacity together with local players, but also bringing foreign investments into the country to set up factories,” she says.
On the services side, the challenge was reputational. Riyadh had to convince the world’s best builders that the Saudi market had fundamentally changed. While courting global giants, the NDD also had to address the fragmentation of the domestic market.
“We found that there were two primary obstacles in our portfolio: a high concentration of contractors on one hand, and underutilised capabilities of the local contractors on the other hand.”
The challenge was moving the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the periphery to the core of the PIF’s portfolio of projects.
“In order to overcome these obstacles, a lot of focus was on attracting international contractors – those that were not working in the kingdom at the time – in order to expand and diversify the pool of contractors, while also putting a lot of effort into building up the capabilities within the local market,” Abdimomunova notes.
“The local contracting market is very fragmented. A large proportion of contractors are SMEs, and only the large Saudi contractors are predominantly known inside the kingdom.
“We put in place programmes to support the development of the medium-sized contractors and increase their visibility to our development companies,” she says.
A lot of effort went into making sure contractors have access to financing
Leyla Abdimomunova, National Development Division, PIFThe NDD has also introduced practical upskilling and financial tools. “We put in place a few tools, working together with ecosystem partners. For example, the Prequalification Platform, which was launched and is being operated with the Saudi Contractors Authority, [and] contractor upskilling bootcamps that have been delivered by our development companies to provide contractors with the basic understanding needed to be able to bid for projects.
“A lot of effort went into making sure contractors have access to financing,” Abdimomunova adds.
Indeed, addressing the finances of the construction sector was another critical area for the NDD.
By moving beyond traditional methods and practices, it has introduced more flexible liquidity options for the industry. “We launched the Contractor Financing Programme to expand access to financing and strengthen liquidity for contactors supporting Saudi Arabia’s development pipeline.
“In partnership with the National Infrastructure Fund, we introduced guarantee mechanisms to unlock additional bank lending capacity, alongside a new product for the region: surety bonds – as an insurance alternative to traditional bank guarantees,” says Abdimomunova.
“Since receiving regulatory approval last year, 34 surety bonds have already been issued, helping contractors participate more effectively in large-scale projects.”
Adjusting priorities
With the foundational work established, the NDD is now shifting its focus towards streamlining the experience for international companies and tackling the sector’s long-standing structural hurdles.
Looking ahead, the NDD intends to tackle the perennial problems of the industry – payment delays and productivity – to ensure that the transformation of the sector is permanent.
“Going forwards, our work will go one level deeper, focusing on resolving structural challenges and strengthening the underlying enablers that support private sector participation.
“We are working closely with our partners across Saudi Arabia to ensure these improvements are sustainable, scalable and embedded not only within the PIF’s ecosystem, but across the broader national economy,” Abdimomunova concludes.
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Contractor appointed for Morocco grand stadium rail station27 March 2026
Moroccan construction firm Jet Contractors has won a contract to build a railway station at the Grand Stade Hassan II stadium in Benslimane, as part of the Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed rail project.
The estimated $45m deal was awarded by the Moroccan National Railways Office (ONCF).
The new station will serve the 115,000-seat Grand Stade Hassan II and will allow passengers to travel from Casablanca and Rabat in 20 minutes using the high-speed rail network.
It is expected to handle around 12 million passengers a year. Construction of the station is scheduled for completion in 2028.
Construction work on the main stadium started in June last year, when a joint venture of local contractors Travaux Generaux de Construction de Casablanca and Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc was awarded a $320m contract for the next stage of works on the stadium. The venue will be one of the hosts for the 2030 Fifa World Cup.
The stadium is being built on a 100-hectare site in the El-Mansouria area of Benslimane Province, 38 kilometres north of Casablanca.
Morocco has been investing heavily in upgrading its infrastructure for the football World Cup, which it is co-hosting with Spain and Portugal.
Morocco was effectively confirmed as a host country alongside Spain and Portugal in October 2023, after the group emerged as the sole bidder for the event. The official selection was announced in December last year.
Along with building a stadium in Benslimane, the Moroccan government plans to revamp six existing stadiums in Agadir, Casablanca, Fez, Marrakech, Rabat and Tangier, and upgrade air, road and rail projects.
Last year, Morocco’s transport and logistics minister unveiled a MD96bn ($9.5bn) investment plan to transform the country’s rail infrastructure by 2030.
The announcement followed the award of about MD20bn-worth of contracts in November 2024 – mostly to local and Chinese firms – for civil works packages on the Marrakech-Kenitra high-speed rail line.
The link will extend the Al-Boraq railway, a high-speed rail line between Tangier, Rabat and Casablanca. The line started operating in 2018 and was Africa’s first high-speed railway system.
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March 2026: Data drives regional projects27 March 2026
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Redefining the region’s arbitration landscape27 March 2026

In the midst of increasing international investments and commercial transactions in the Middle East, arbitration remains a key component for the resolution of complex commercial disputes. Its effectiveness, however, depends not only on arbitral tribunals, but also on how national courts define their roles in oversight and enforcement.
Recent trends in the Middle East have shown a more disciplined judicial approach with a clearer delineation of roles between courts and arbitral tribunals.
Enforcement: a narrower approach
Enforcement of foreign awards has been a key area of development.
In the UAE, the Committee for the Unification of Federal and Local Judicial Principles ruled in Petition No. 1 of 2025 that an award shall be valid and enforceable provided the arbitrators sign only the final page. Referring to earlier Dubai Court of Cassation decisions (1), the Committee noted that procedural rules should not be used to defeat substantive rights and that legal procedures are meant to serve justice, not to create technical barriers.
The Dubai Court of Cassation adopted the same approach, confirming that arbitrators are not required to sign every page of the award and that issues already examined during arbitration, including signatory capacity, cannot be reopened at the enforcement stage. (2)
A similar emphasis on clarity can be seen in Saudi Arabia, where the Arbitration Law is currently under review, with the aim of modernising the legislative framework and enhancing predictability. The draft reform includes clearer provisions regarding court–tribunal interaction, permits courts to stay annulment proceedings or enforcement challenges for up to 60 days to enable tribunals to cure defects, and confirms that partial and interim awards have the authority of a final judgment and are directly enforceable.
The ADGM and Dubai Courts have also introduced a system of reciprocal enforcement of ratified arbitral awards without the need to re-examine the underlying award.
These developments therefore suggest a narrower approach and a reduced scope for expansive review at the enforcement stage.
Recent trends have shown a more disciplined judicial approach with a clearer delineation of roles between courts and arbitral tribunals
Judicial intervention: limits of review
Courts have also refined the scope of annulment and supervisory review.
The Abu Dhabi Court of Cassation clarified that annulment is not an appeal on the merits. Courts may not reweigh evidence or revisit a tribunal’s interpretation of the law. The grounds of annulment remain limited to the statutory grounds set out in the Federal Arbitration Law. (3)
Egyptian courts likewise limit grounds for annulment to exhaustively listed statutory grounds, excluding reassessment of the merits.
In the wider regional landscape, Morocco’s arbitration reform demonstrates a similar trajectory. The updated framework modernises the regime and clarifies the supportive role of domestic courts, reinforcing a structured balance between oversight and arbitral autonomy.
Across these jurisdictions, review powers are increasingly exercised within defined legal parameters rather than through re-examination of arbitral reasoning.
Public policy: a limited exception
Public policy continues to be a ground for refusing enforcement, but recent decisions suggest it is applied with greater restraint. For instance, in the UAE, the imposition of compound interest is not considered to be in contravention of public policy. (4) At the DIFC level, the Court specified that the refusal on public policy grounds is subject to a high standard and is only justified where enforcement would “violate the forum state’s most basic notions of morality and justice”. (5)
Saudi Arabia recognises sharia compliance and public policy as potential grounds for refusal. While rooted in the foundations of its legal system, they operate within defined statutory boundaries.
Public policy therefore functions as a defined safeguard rather than a vehicle for broad review.
Implications for cross-border activity
Where enforcement review is confined to the grounds set out in the New York Convention and annulment remains limited to statutory bases, the interaction between tribunals and courts becomes more predictable. In disputes involving assets across multiple states, this delineation contributes to greater certainty at the post-award stage.
The complementary role of the ICC
Institutional practice operates alongside these developments.
The ICC Court and its Secretariat ensure proceedings are conducted with care, independence, impartiality and integrity, in strict compliance with the Court’s obligations and duties under its rules. In doing so, the Court and the Secretariat monitor cases to safeguard due process and procedural fairness.
One of the distinctive features of ICC arbitration and a cornerstone of the Rules is the Court’s scrutiny of all draft awards. Such a process serves to enhance the quality of the award, improve its general accuracy and persuasiveness; and maximise its legal effectiveness by identifying any defects that could be used in an attempt to have it set aside at the place of arbitration or resist its enforcement elsewhere.
In complex, multi-contract and multi-jurisdictional disputes, this scrutiny plays an important role in safeguarding enforceability across different jurisdictions.
As courts continue to define the limits of intervention, institutional discipline and judicial oversight increasingly operate side by side, reinforcing confidence in arbitration across the Middle East.
1. Dubai Court of Cassation – Cases No. 109/2022 and No. 403/2020 2. Dubai Court of Cassation – Appeals Nos. 778 and 887 of 2025 3. Abu Dhabi Court of Cassation – Cases Nos. 1115/2024 and No. 166/2024 4. Dubai Court of Cassation – Appeals Nos. 778 and 887 of 2025 5. DIFC Court of Appeal’s decision dated 9 January 2025
About the author
Laetitia Rabbat is deputy counsel, ICC International Court of Arbitration, Abu Dhabihttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16145450/main.gif