meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Middle East’s evolving alliances continue to shift

26 December 2024

 

Within and without, alliances in the Middle East are in a state of flux.

The brittle tensions that pitted three Gulf states against Qatar, before the January 2021 Al-Ula Agreement found an amicable resolution, have given way to burgeoning rapprochement between the UAE and Qatar.

On the other hand, the UAE-Saudi rivalry has intensified in recent years, culminating in late March 2024 in Riyadh’s lodging of an official complaint at the UN General Assembly, rejecting the UAE’s designation of territory adjacent to the kingdom as a protected maritime area.

Differences over the two countries’ Opec strategies, and their approaches to regional conflicts – notably Yemen and Sudan – have also come to the fore.

Latterly, a de-escalation has helped to defuse those tensions. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan have strived to improve relations, with a meeting between the two leaders in late May doing much to stem the fraying of a once-close relationship.

Thawing enmities

The bigger shift in regional relations involves Iran. The Gaza conflict, fanning out to Lebanon, has helped reframe Gulf states’ ties with Tehran.

This was evident in the landmark visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Bahrain in October for a meeting with King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa – the first such visit in 14 years.

With a reputation as the Gulf state most hostile to Iran, Bahrain’s recent diplomatic outreach to Tehran reflects its sense that talking to the enemy is better than isolation, in the context of the current heightened regional tensions.

The Chinese-orchestrated Saudi-Iran agreement of 2023 at least provides a template for Manama to follow.

Bahrain’s overtures to Iran also reflect a new security dynamic in the region.

With Iran-backed militias in Iraq showing themselves capable of dispatching missiles as far as Israel, some regional analysts say the Gulf states’ leaders are increasingly anxious that these Shia militias could just as easily target them.

In this sense, building relationships with the Islamic Republic is one way of ensuring that domestic territory is not targeted by Iranian proxy militias.

China is playing to the crowd. It … is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia
Bill Hayton, Chatham House

Beijing’s broadening reach

The region has also found itself increasingly engaged east of the Suez. 

China’s regional role remains a work in progress, with the Saudi-Iran agreement arising out of Beijing’s willingness to offer a non-Western alternative to conflict mediation.

From Riyadh’s point of view, China’s leverage with Iran, primarily through extensive trade and investment links, made it the ideal broker for an agreement that Saudi Arabia views as key to helping dial down the threat posed by Iran.

The backdrop to such Gulf engagements with the likes of Iran and China is the evident reluctance of the US to provide the blanket security guarantees to its regional allies that it once did.

This has incentivised the Gulf states to attempt diplomatic entreaties with regional adversaries, compelled by an understandable need for self-preservation.

This has wider significance, placing China in a more prominent role in influencing regional politics – a sharp contrast with its previous low-key strategy and one that China watchers such as Bill Hayton, Asia-Pacific associate fellow at the thinktank Chatham House, see as being driven by interests rather than by tactical power politics.

For Beijing at least, its involvement in 2023’s Saudi-Iran deal affords an opportunity to reinforce its regional influence, while demonstrating its support for the Palestinian cause – an issue that resonates with many across the region. 

“China is playing to the crowd,” says Hayton. “It has decided that large parts of [the world] don’t like Israel and it is looking to put a wedge between the US and the wider world, including Southeast Asia.”

China is meanwhile looking to deepen relations beyond Iran.

Despite the evident importance it places on maintaining close relations with the Islamic Republic – most notably as the main buyer of the latter’s crude oil exports – China also sees value in building ties with Saudi Arabia.

The recent accession of Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, Egypt and Iran, to the Brics geopolitical bloc affords further means for China to expand its influence in the region.

From Saudi Arabia’s point of view, Brics membership could provide opportunities to broaden its engagement beyond the Western powers with which it has been allied for generations.

The Trump factor

Given that when Donald Trump resumes his occupancy of the Oval Office in late January the US is likely to take a maximum-pressure approach towards Iran once again, a more multipolar disposition could offer the Gulf states something of a hedge.

Saudi Arabia could equally find itself in a position to be a conduit between the wider region and the Trump White House.

With inbound Trump appointees including the fiercely pro-Israel Mike Huckabee as the proposed US ambassador to Israel, there is a concern that the White House could give a green light to Israel to annex the West Bank and embed its occupation of Gaza.

The region may then find itself counting on Riyadh’s clout in Washington to restrain Trump from pursuing positions that would only escalate regional tensions.

Between the likes of the EU, the UK and China looking to revive relations with Saudi Arabia, and Russia still being a partner in the Opec+ group, the Saudi leadership may find itself the centre of regional attention in 2025.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13025007/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Chinese firm wins Emaar Address Zabeel contract

    17 October 2025

    Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation has been awarded a contract by UAE-based developer Emaar Properties to build a multi-tower complex in Dubai’s Zabeel area called Address Residences Zabeel.

    The development will comprise four towers offering more than 1,700 one- to four-bedroom residential units, 2,600 square metres of retail space and parking for 2,000 cars. The towers will be 50, 58, 52 and 54 storeys high.

    The project is expected to be completed in 2027.

    The latest contract award from Emaar follows the start of construction activity at the Dubai Square mall, which will be connected to the upcoming Dubai Creek Harbour tower within Emaar's Dubai Creek Harbour development.

    MEED recently reported that Dubai-based contractor Dutco Construction had started mobilising for the main works on the project.

    Dubai’s heightened real estate activity has led to record-breaking announcements from several UAE-based real estate firms. 

    In February this year, Emaar reported a total revenue of AED19.1bn ($5.2bn) in 2024, a 61% increase from 2023. It said it recorded a net profit before tax of about AED10.2bn ($2.8bn), a 20% rise compared to 2023.

    According to data published earlier this year by the Emirates News Agency (Wam), the total value of real estate transactions in the UAE reached AED893bn, with more than 331,300 transactions recorded last year.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData forecasts that the UAE construction industry will register an annual growth of 3.9% in 2025-27, supported by investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, oil and gas, housing, industrial and tourism projects.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Private sector takes on expanded role; Riyadh shifts towards strategic expenditure; MEED’s 2025 power developer ranking

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > AGENDA 1: A new dawn for PPPs
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14892821/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Chinese company to build tyre plant in Morocco

    17 October 2025

    Chinese tyre manufacturer Shandong Yongsheng Rubber has launched a $675m project to build a tyre factory in Morocco.

    The plant will initially produce 6 million semi-steel radial tyres annually, with plans to gradually increase capacity to 12 million units per year, according to a company statement.

    The tyres manufactured will be primarily destined for export to European, African and American markets.

    Shandong Yongsheng Rubber also plans to capitalise on preferential tariffs offered through Morocco’s free trade agreements with numerous jurisdictions, including the European Union, the US and several West African countries, the company said.

    The factory, to be developed in Morocco’s Diouch province, will produce tyres that meet technical standards for developed markets.

    Preliminary administrative procedures, including regulatory registration, have already been completed for the project.

    Increased investment

    Chinese companies in the automotive sector have increased investments in Morocco and neighbouring Algeria in recent years.

    In August, Chinese automotive interior materials manufacturer Kuntai announced plans to establish a production facility in Morocco through its subsidiary Kuntai Hongjing.

    The project represents a total investment of RMB100m ($13.7m) and will focus on manufacturing car floor mats and carpets for vehicles.

    In March, Great Wall Motor, one of China’s top 10 car manufacturers, announced plans to build its first factory in Algeria, joining other companies in the country, including Fiat, Peugeot and Kia.

    Last November, the Algerian Ministry of Industry & Pharmaceutical Production announced that it had granted permits for six new vehicle manufacturing factories in the country.

    In March 2023, Dutch carmaker Stellantis announced plans to spend more than €200m ($213m) to manufacture several Fiat models in Algeria.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14889877/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Two cement plants to be built in Egypt

    17 October 2025

    Egypt is planning to issue two new cement plant licences before the end of the year, with the aim of cubing rising prices in the country.

    The two new licences were approved during a recent meeting between local cement producers and Kamel El-Wazir, Egypt’s minister of trade and industry, according to a news report by Asharq Business, which cited an anonymous official.

    “The two permits are expected to be released before the end of the year, with each licence including its own production line,” the official said.

    The two new plants are expected to add 1.5-2 million tonnes a year of production to Egypt’s cement output.

    The cement project approvals from Egypt’s government come amid heightened concerns about the cost of construction projects in the country.

    Importing materials and equipment for projects has become increasingly expensive over recent years due to Egypt’s currency weakening. Over the past 12 months, the price of cement has increased by almost 50%.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14889881/main2139.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwaiti contractor submits lowest bid for oil project

    17 October 2025

    Ahmadi-based Spetco International has submitted a low bid of KD88.2m ($288.7m) for the contract to develop the planned Mutriba remote boosting facility in Kuwait.

    The project was originally tendered by Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) earlier this year, with a bid submission deadline of 29 June.

    The deadline was extended several times before three Kuwait-based companies submitted bids.

    The details of the bids submitted for the project are as follows:

    • Spetco International – KD88,209,236 ($288.7m)
    • Combined Group Contracting – KD123,000,000 ($402.5m)
    • Alghanim International General Trading & Contracting – KD129,450,000 ($423.7m)

    The project’s scope includes:

    • Development of the Mutriba oil field
    • Installation of the degassing station
    • Installation of manifolds
    • Installation of condensate facilities
    • Installation of wellhead separation units
    • Installation of the pumping system
    • Installation of wellhead facilities
    • Installation of oil and gas treatment plants
    • Installation of a natural gas liquids plant
    • Installation of a water and gas injection plant
    • Construction of associated utilities and facilities

    The onshore Mutriba oil field is located in northwest Kuwait and is being developed as part of Kuwait’s wider strategy to boost the country’s upstream capacity.

    Commercial output from Mutriba officially began on 15 June this year, after several wells were connected to KOC’s production facilities.

    The field, in a previously undeveloped part of Kuwait, covers more than 230 square kilometres and lies outside the area of fields already operated by KOC.

    In September, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Tareq Al‑Roumi said that the country’s oil production capacity had reached 3.2 million barrels a day (b/d), its highest level in more than 10 years.

    Despite the higher capacity, Kuwait says it will continue to abide by Opec+ agreements and will produce 2.559 million b/d.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14892763/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Power market reshapes contractor landscape

    16 October 2025

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The number of UAE-based power projects awarded under the traditional engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) model has fallen to its lowest level in the past decade.

    Admittedly, this does not include the Covid year of 2020, but the point stands. Across the GCC, capital is still flowing into the sector at record levels. What has changed is how that capital is being deployed.

    In a recent analysis, I revealed 2025 to be a record-breaking year, with the UAE’s power market recording its highest annual total for contract awards on record. Yet instead of a broad spread of smaller contracts, governments and utilities are concentrating investment in fewer larger and more complex schemes that are reshaping how the region’s energy systems are built and financed.

    In 2025, a single solar and battery storage independent power project (IPP) in Abu Dhabi accounts for 67% of the country’s total power contract value. EPC contracts, once the mainstay of the market, have been eclipsed by developer-led models as the preferred route for large-scale power generation.

    Saudi Arabia is moving in the same direction, albeit at a different pace. While EPC work remains central to grid expansion, the kingdom’s largest investments are now in utility-scale IPPs backed by the Public Investment Fund.

    In my recent annual ranking of private power developers across the GCC, the surge in power generation capacity owned by Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power was telling. Not only did the firm’s net equity grow by 70% in a single year, but it now eclipses the combined equity of the other leading developers in the region, a direct result of its dominant role in PIF-backed schemes. These projects, including multi-gigawatt solar and wind developments, are redefining the scale and structure of procurement.

    Behind this shift is a combination of market maturity, financing strategy and energy transition goals. Developer-led projects concentrate capital and risk in fewer hands, streamline procurement timelines and align closely with long-term policy objectives.

    For governments, they deliver capacity without requiring large upfront capital commitments. For developers, they offer stable, long-term returns through secure offtake agreements.

    But this concentration also narrows the field of opportunity. Where dozens of smaller EPC packages once supported a broad ecosystem of contractors and suppliers, today’s market is increasingly revolving around a handful of mega deals.

    Competition is intensifying for fewer projects, and entry barriers, ranging from balance sheet strength to technical capabilities, are rising.

    Smaller EPC contractors, once central to power delivery across the GCC, risk being pushed to the margins. Some will adapt by partnering with larger developers, but others may find fewer opportunities to participate.

    Which takes me back to the UAE. In the water sector, 2026 is already shaping up to be a landmark year, with nearly $31bn-worth of projects in tender. A single project, Dubai’s $22bn Strategic Sewerage Tunnel scheme, accounts for over 70% of this total.

    It will follow a public-private partnership (PPP) delivery model that consolidates the entire scope under one consortium, streamlining delivery. However, this approach significantly reduces the number of prime contracting opportunities, with smaller EPC firms more likely to find themselves competing for limited subcontracting roles rather than leading bids.

    It is important to note that while large-scale projects tend to dominate during major build-out phases, attention inevitably turns to smaller, more distributed schemes.

    However, this alone does not necessarily mean a return to the EPC-heavy landscape of the past. For now, as these large projects set the pace, the region’s energy transition may accelerate, but it will also decide who gets to reshape and build it.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14884161/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall