meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Regional diplomacy fails Syrian economy

6 June 2024

 

Syria’s dire economic position continues to worsen. In a report issued in May, the World Bank predicted the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year, following a 1.2% decline in 2023.

The economy had already contracted by 54% between 2010-21, according to the Washington-based body. Its international trade has also entered freefall, with the value of exports falling from $8.8bn in 2010 to just $0.7bn in 2023, while imports dropped from $17.5bn to $3.2bn over the same period. Syria was once an oil exporter with a large agriculture sector, but it has become reliant on fuel and food imports.

What makes matters worse is that the cost of importing goods is now far higher than it once was, thanks to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound. In 2011, you needed £Syr47 to buy one US dollar; by 2023, the cost had risen to more than £Syr12,500 for every greenback. Last year alone, the Syrian pound declined by 141% against the dollar, while inflation was running at 93%.

Agriculture fared slightly better in 2023 due to improved weather conditions compared to 2022, but the north of the country suffered a devastating earthquake in February 2023, which killed several thousand people and destroyed thousands of homes.

The authorities have few spare resources to devote to rebuilding areas devastated by natural disasters or the civil war. 

The government has lost control over oil revenues to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which holds the oil-rich parts of the country. The security challenges of the past 13 years have also led to a downturn in most other parts of the economy and enfeebled the government’s ability to collect taxes.

The World Bank estimates that, after adjusting for inflation, government revenues are now 85% lower than before the war.

The poor living conditions prompted a fresh wave of protests in Daraa and Al-Sweida in August 2023, which then spread to other government and rebel-controlled areas of the country. Locals have much to complain about.

The International Rescue Committee reckons that nearly three-quarters of Syria’s population, or more than 16.5 million people, require some sort of humanitarian assistance and upwards of 90% of Syrians now live in poverty.

Smuggling economy

One area of activity that has prospered has been the production and export of Captagon. This illegal amphetamine-like drug is smuggled in huge quantities into the Gulf, where it finds a ready market despite concerted efforts by the authorities there to clamp down on it.

The World Bank has estimated Syria’s Captagon trade was worth between $1.9bn and $5.6bn a year from 2020-23; that higher figure is not far below the country’s GDP of $6.2bn in 2023.

Those linked to the Syrian trade are thought to earn between $600m and $1.9bn in revenue a year. To put that in context, the revenue generated from all legal exports from Syria last year was $960m.

The Captagon trade might be enriching some figures close to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, but it is also undermining the country’s wider economic prospects.

One potential avenue for rebuilding the shattered economy is to attract inward investment and the rich Gulf countries are an obvious potential source for that.

However, despite the diplomatic normalisation with Gulf governments over the past few years, the hoped-for investment flows have not materialised, with unhappiness over the Captagon trade a key factor – even if there have been some signs of a reduction over the past year or two.

Caroline Rose, who runs the Washington-based New Lines Institute’s research project on the Captagon trade, said: “We keep tabs of recorded Captagon seizures … and noted a slight dip in Captagon seizures region-wide between 2022 and 2023, so the reduction in seizures could be related to a stabilisation in the supply and production of Captagon.” However, she added that Syria continued to export the drug “at industrial levels”.

Investment brakes

The drug trade is not the only barrier to attracting foreign capital, though. Inward investment has also been hampered by US sanctions set out under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, generally known as the Caesar Act, and the myriad problems within the domestic economy are also a major hurdle for any would-be investor.

“When it comes to business and investment, Syria does not really provide any good environment for that. You have high costs, high risks, absence of rule of law, low purchasing power,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at UK thinktank Chatham House, in April. “Businesses in general will not be tempted to go and open businesses there because the gains are low.”

Some regional aid has been flowing in, though. Arab countries raised their contributions from 2% of the total aid in 2022 to 15% in 2023, with the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being the largest donors.

Others have been focusing their efforts on the plight of the millions of Syrian refugees displaced inside the country and beyond its borders in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Since the war started, around half of Syria’s 23 million-strong population has been displaced, with more than 5 million fleeing abroad.

Some €7.5bn ($8.1bn) of grants and loans were pledged by international donors to help Syrian refugees at the Brussels VIII Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on 27 May.

But until a political resolution to the civil war can be found, Syria’s enormous economic and humanitarian crises are unlikely to be solved. Speaking at the Brussels conference, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a “Syrian-owned political solution … is the only credible path for all Syrians to live in peace and stability, and for refugees to return home.”

Gaza conflict renews violence in Syria

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854850/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Egypt signs $420m Gabal El-Zeit wind agreements

    10 June 2026

    Egypt has signed agreements worth $420m for the investment, operation and power purchase of the 580MW Gabal El-Zeit wind power complex in the Red Sea region.

    Gabal El-Zeit 1 has a capacity of 240MW, while Gabal El-Zeit 2 and 3 have capacities of 220MW and 120MW, respectively.

    The agreements were signed between Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) and Dubai-based Alcazar Energy.

    Under the agreements, Alcazar Energy will invest in, operate and manage the farms through a project company established under Egyptian law.

    The company will be responsible for technical operations, maintenance and efficiency upgrades while maintaining a minimum capacity of 580MW throughout the contract period.

    The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company will purchase the electricity generated by the plant.

    The agreements follow earlier efforts to privatise the Gabal El-Zeit wind complex, involving a deal with UK-headquartered private equity firm Actis.

    According to the Egyptian government, the project supports the country’s state ownership policy and national energy strategy, which aim to increase the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix to 45%.

    The Gabal El-Zeit area on Egypt’s Red Sea coast is one of the country’s most established wind power development zones. The latest Gabal El-Zeit wind farm was completed in 2014, according to MEED Projects data. Germany’s Siemens Gamesa was the main contractor. 

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17170360/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Majid Al-Futtaim awards $545m Ghaf Woods contract to ECC

    10 June 2026

    Majid Al-Futtaim Properties has appointed Engineering Contracting Company (ECC) as the main contractor for the Capria East, Capria West and Maravelle Residences developments at its Ghaf Woods community in Dubai, in a deal valued at AED2bn ($545m).

    The contract covers the construction of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and duplex residences across the two Capria clusters.

    The award adds to a series of major construction contracts Majid Al-Futtaim has issued across its Dubai communities in recent years.

    In May, local contractor Al-Sahel Contracting was awarded a AED700m contract for the Distrikt development, also at Ghaf Woods.

    In 2024, Majid Al-Futtaim awarded AED3bn in contracts for its Tilal Al-Ghaf community, appointing Innovo Build to build 94 waterfront villas at Elysian Mansions and United Engineering Construction (Unec) to deliver 130 villas at the Alaya development.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17170744/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi Arabia and Turkiye sign railway agreements

    10 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have signed two memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the railway and logistics sectors, advancing Riyadh’s ambitions to become a global logistics hub.

    Transport and Logistics Services Minister Saleh Al-Jasser and Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu signed the agreements at the ministry’s headquarters in Riyadh on 9 June, following ministerial talks held with a high-level Turkish delegation. Transport General Authority president Fawaz Al-Sahli and officials from the kingdom’s transport and logistics sector were also present.

    Agreement scope

    The first MoU covers logistics services and operations, including the exchange of expertise, policies and regulations. The second focuses on railway technologies, signalling and communication systems, railway digitalisation, human capacity development, the localisation of the railway industry and measures to reduce the sector’s environmental impact.

    More broadly, the agreements cover cooperation on railway standards and related innovations, the exchange of expertise on the design, operation and maintenance of rail projects, and engineering, infrastructure and safety standards.

    The two sides will also cooperate on research and development, with provision for joint workforce training through specialist railway academies.

    Riyadh said the agreements will help support its National Strategy for Transport and Logistics Services and Saudi Vision 2030, which seeks to position the kingdom as a logistics bridge connecting three continents.

    Turkish projects

    Turkish contractors have already established themselves as key players in the region’s rail sector. In 2012, Yapi Merkezi secured a $2.1bn contract for work on the Haramain high-speed rail network in Saudi Arabia, while Turkish firms Mapa and Limak are leading the ongoing civil works on Dubai’s $5.5bn Metro Blue Line project as part of a China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC) consortium. Turkish consultancy Proyapi Muhendislik ve Musavirlik Anonim Sirketi has also won design contracts for the 111km Kuwait National Rail Road project.

    The agreements signed by Saudi Arabia and Turkiye may also give momentum to longstanding discussions around a rail corridor linking the GCC with Turkiye. The route, which has been discussed for years, has gained renewed impetus in recent months as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed regional governments to accelerate the development of overland trade alternatives.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17169958/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Joint venture tenders Algeria field development contract

    10 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Hassi Bir Rekaiz Group (GHBR), which operates Algeria’s Hassi Bir Rekaiz field, has issued a tender for phase 2A of the asset’s field development project.

    GHBR is a joint venture of Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach and Thailand’s national exploration and production company PTTEP.

    The scope of the contract focuses on the “provision of engineering and supervision services”, according to documents published by Sonatrach.

    The tender has been issued with a bid deadline of 16 June 2026.

    In May, GHBR signed a $1.1bn contract for phase two of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz development project.

    The contract was won by a consortium of Egypt’s Petrojet and Italian engineering and contracting company Arkad.

    Petrojet’s portion of the project was estimated to be worth around $600m, and Arkad’s portion was estimated to be worth $500m.

    The contract used the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model.

    The scope of the project contract is focused on the construction of a central processing facility (CPF) capable of processing crude oil and associated gas.

    It also includes developing off-plot pipelines, as well as related utilities and infrastructure.

    The CPF will have the capacity to process 32,000 barrels a day (b/d) and will be designed to support future expansions.

    The related infrastructure will include an extensive pipeline network spanning approximately 217 kilometres, as well as a road network.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17163750/main3325.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Algeria extends deadline for urea-formaldehyde project

    10 June 2026

     

    Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach has extended the bid deadline for a project to develop a new concentrated urea-formaldehyde unit in its Arzew industrial zone.

    The latest bid deadline is 15 June.  

    The contract uses the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model, and the bid deadline for technical tender submissions was originally set for early April.

    The condensed urea-formaldehyde unit will be located at the CP1-Z facility.

    The CP1-Z facility began operations in 1975 and has a capacity of 152,000 tonnes a year. It produces products including methanol, resin and formol.

    It is a two-phase tender. The first phase is a technical bid submission, and the second phase is a commercial bid submission.

    To be eligible to win this contract, companies must specialise in petrochemical industrial installation projects.

    They also need to have a share capital of at least $7m and more than 15 years of relevant experience.

    The new unit, UFC85, will have the capacity to produce 40,000 metric tonnes of concentrated and condensed urea-formaldehyde annually.

    The project’s scope also includes the development of auxiliary equipment and installations.

    Urea-formaldehyde has a wide range of uses, including the production of laminates, textiles and paper.

    In the wood industry, it is used as a thermosetting adhesive to bond wood to create plywood and particleboard. In agriculture, urea-formaldehyde is widely used as a slow-release fertiliser.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17163657/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp