meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Regional diplomacy fails Syrian economy

6 June 2024

 

Syria’s dire economic position continues to worsen. In a report issued in May, the World Bank predicted the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year, following a 1.2% decline in 2023.

The economy had already contracted by 54% between 2010-21, according to the Washington-based body. Its international trade has also entered freefall, with the value of exports falling from $8.8bn in 2010 to just $0.7bn in 2023, while imports dropped from $17.5bn to $3.2bn over the same period. Syria was once an oil exporter with a large agriculture sector, but it has become reliant on fuel and food imports.

What makes matters worse is that the cost of importing goods is now far higher than it once was, thanks to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound. In 2011, you needed £Syr47 to buy one US dollar; by 2023, the cost had risen to more than £Syr12,500 for every greenback. Last year alone, the Syrian pound declined by 141% against the dollar, while inflation was running at 93%.

Agriculture fared slightly better in 2023 due to improved weather conditions compared to 2022, but the north of the country suffered a devastating earthquake in February 2023, which killed several thousand people and destroyed thousands of homes.

The authorities have few spare resources to devote to rebuilding areas devastated by natural disasters or the civil war. 

The government has lost control over oil revenues to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which holds the oil-rich parts of the country. The security challenges of the past 13 years have also led to a downturn in most other parts of the economy and enfeebled the government’s ability to collect taxes.

The World Bank estimates that, after adjusting for inflation, government revenues are now 85% lower than before the war.

The poor living conditions prompted a fresh wave of protests in Daraa and Al-Sweida in August 2023, which then spread to other government and rebel-controlled areas of the country. Locals have much to complain about.

The International Rescue Committee reckons that nearly three-quarters of Syria’s population, or more than 16.5 million people, require some sort of humanitarian assistance and upwards of 90% of Syrians now live in poverty.

Smuggling economy

One area of activity that has prospered has been the production and export of Captagon. This illegal amphetamine-like drug is smuggled in huge quantities into the Gulf, where it finds a ready market despite concerted efforts by the authorities there to clamp down on it.

The World Bank has estimated Syria’s Captagon trade was worth between $1.9bn and $5.6bn a year from 2020-23; that higher figure is not far below the country’s GDP of $6.2bn in 2023.

Those linked to the Syrian trade are thought to earn between $600m and $1.9bn in revenue a year. To put that in context, the revenue generated from all legal exports from Syria last year was $960m.

The Captagon trade might be enriching some figures close to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, but it is also undermining the country’s wider economic prospects.

One potential avenue for rebuilding the shattered economy is to attract inward investment and the rich Gulf countries are an obvious potential source for that.

However, despite the diplomatic normalisation with Gulf governments over the past few years, the hoped-for investment flows have not materialised, with unhappiness over the Captagon trade a key factor – even if there have been some signs of a reduction over the past year or two.

Caroline Rose, who runs the Washington-based New Lines Institute’s research project on the Captagon trade, said: “We keep tabs of recorded Captagon seizures … and noted a slight dip in Captagon seizures region-wide between 2022 and 2023, so the reduction in seizures could be related to a stabilisation in the supply and production of Captagon.” However, she added that Syria continued to export the drug “at industrial levels”.

Investment brakes

The drug trade is not the only barrier to attracting foreign capital, though. Inward investment has also been hampered by US sanctions set out under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, generally known as the Caesar Act, and the myriad problems within the domestic economy are also a major hurdle for any would-be investor.

“When it comes to business and investment, Syria does not really provide any good environment for that. You have high costs, high risks, absence of rule of law, low purchasing power,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at UK thinktank Chatham House, in April. “Businesses in general will not be tempted to go and open businesses there because the gains are low.”

Some regional aid has been flowing in, though. Arab countries raised their contributions from 2% of the total aid in 2022 to 15% in 2023, with the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being the largest donors.

Others have been focusing their efforts on the plight of the millions of Syrian refugees displaced inside the country and beyond its borders in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Since the war started, around half of Syria’s 23 million-strong population has been displaced, with more than 5 million fleeing abroad.

Some €7.5bn ($8.1bn) of grants and loans were pledged by international donors to help Syrian refugees at the Brussels VIII Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on 27 May.

But until a political resolution to the civil war can be found, Syria’s enormous economic and humanitarian crises are unlikely to be solved. Speaking at the Brussels conference, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a “Syrian-owned political solution … is the only credible path for all Syrians to live in peace and stability, and for refugees to return home.”

Gaza conflict renews violence in Syria

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854850/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • SAR tenders design review consultancy for GCC rail link

    18 September 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has issued a request for proposals (RFP) for a design management and review consultant to oversee engineering works on the GCC railway network, the latest step in advancing the long-delayed regional rail link.

    The RFP was issued on 9 September, with a submission deadline of 18 October.

    The tender seeks a consultant to manage, audit and verify deliverables produced by SAR's separately appointed design services consultant, rather than carry out the design itself. The tendering for the design services consultancy is currently in progress.

    Construction will be tendered separately through competitive bidding once designs are approved.

    The GCC railway will run for about 672 kilometres (km) inside Saudi Arabia, linking the kingdom's existing network to Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, with four sections of about 141km, 200km, 151km and 21km, respectively.

    The line is planned as a single-track, non-electrified corridor for mixed freight and passenger traffic, with a maximum axle load of 32.4 tonnes and passing loops for bidirectional working.

    The appointed consultant will develop a design management and review plan covering governance, interdisciplinary coordination and stage-gate approvals, and will issue formal review and audit reports against SAR's requirements and international standards.

    The scope also covers stakeholder engagement, interface management and oversight of land acquisition activity tied to the design consultant's land acquisition plan.

    Key design stages are expected to take about 16 months: four months for concept design, six for preliminary design and six for issued-for-construction design, each with four weeks of contingency.

    SAR has asked bidders to mobilise a core team from day one. These must include a project director, engineering and design manager, stakeholder manager and lead document controller, all based at SAR's offices, with minimum experience thresholds ranging from three years for junior operators up to 25 years, including 15 in rail, for the project director role.

    GCC railway line

    Under the overall plan, the railway will run from Kuwait, pass through Dammam in Saudi Arabia, reach Bahrain via a planned causeway, and continue from Dammam to Qatar, the UAE and, ultimately, Muscat via Sohar in Oman. The railway is reported to cover about 2,186km in total.

    The route length within each member state is as follows:

    • UAE – 684km
    • Saudi Arabia – 672km
    • Oman – 306km
    • Qatar – 283km
    • Kuwait – 145km
    • Bahrain – 36km

    The railway is designed for passenger trains travelling at 220 kilometres an hour (km/h) and freight trains operating at 80km/h–120km/h.

    With high levels of project activity, governments in spending mode and renewed cooperation under the Al-Ula Declaration, the latest efforts to restart the GCC railway project may make more progress than previous attempts. If completed, the railway could prove transformational for a region that is globally connected but still divided by national borders.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19783331/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Tender issued for Libyan gas project

    17 September 2026

    An invitation to bid has been issued for a contract to conduct environmental assessments for the project to expand the Mellitah oil and gas complex in Libya.

    The bid submission deadline is 2pm today (17 September) Libyan time.

    The scope of the project includes provision of:

    • An environmental baseline study (EBS)
    • An environmental impact assessment (EIA)
    • An environmental management plan (EMP)

    The client is Mellitah Oil & Gas (MOG), which is a joint venture of Italy’s Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    MOG is based in Tripoli and operates both onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities.

    The joint venture owns and operates six major oil and gas fields across the North African country.

    According to the tender documents, the company that is awarded the contract will need to prepare environmental management measures in compliance with:

    • Libyan environmental legislation
    • Ministry of Environment requirements
    • NOC environmental guidelines
    • Applicable international environmental standards and best practices

    The expansion of the Mellitah oil and gas complex is part of a project estimated to be worth $8bn.

    The wider project is known as the Mellitah Complex Expansion & CO2 Management Integrated Development Project.

    It has six main packages:

    • Onshore package
    • Offshore Structure A
    • Offshore Structure E
    • Subsea pipeline package
    • Site preparation work
    • Carbon capture and storage facility

    Security issues and political instability have been a major problem for Libya’s oil and gas sector since the country’s civil war started in 2011.

    Earlier this month, the Mellitah oil and gas complex was forced to shut down temporarily due to a protest over deteriorating public services.

    The existing onshore complex includes housing, processing units, storage facilities and export facilities.

    It also serves as the launch point for the Greenstream pipeline, which delivers Libyan gas directly to Italy.

    The planned expansion of the complex will involve:

    • Construction of a new fourth gas processing train
    • Construction of a third condensate train
    • Construction of a third natural gas liquids fractionation train
    • Construction of a fourth sulphur recovery unit train
    • Installation of a hydrogen sulphide enrichment unit
    • Installation of a sulphur recovery unit
    • Construction of other associated facilities

    The Mellitah complex is located about 100 kilometres west of Tripoli and is a key energy facility in the west of the country.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748920/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Nakheel awards $218m Dubai Islands buildings deal

    17 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai-based developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a main construction contract worth more than AED800m ($218m) for phases one and three of Bay Grove Residences at Dubai Islands.

    The contract was awarded to the local firm Metac General Contracting Company.

    It covers the construction of 537 apartments, comprising one- to four-bedroom units, across seven residential buildings.

    Phase one includes 296 units in four buildings, while phase three comprises 241 units across three buildings.

    The works are scheduled for completion in late 2028.

    Bay Grove Residences will ultimately comprise 1,154 homes across 15 buildings. Planning is under way for the remaining 617 homes in phases two and four, with further contract awards expected.

    In August last year, Nakheel awarded a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to Abu Dhabi-based Fibrex Contracting to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands. The contract includes constructing 636 villas.

    In April this year, another AED527m ($143m) contract was awarded to local firm Al-Nasr Contracting Company to construct the primary infrastructure and utilities works on Island B at the development.

    The Dubai Islands development consists of five islands spanning 18.6 square kilometres. It features more than 59 kilometres (km) of waterfront and 20km of beaches, as well as parks, golf courses, promenades and cycling paths.

    The offshore island project gained renewed momentum in 2022, when Nakheel unveiled a new masterplan and rebranded it as Dubai Islands.

    The reclaimed islands were originally part of the Palm Deira project, which was partially completed before being put on hold in 2008.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748850/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square

    17 September 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company and local developer Aldar have completed the acquisition of Masdar City Square at Masdar City, in a transaction valued at AED918m ($250m).

    The deal was executed through their joint venture established in 2024.

    Masdar City Square comprises more than 47,000 square metres (sq m) of net leasable area across seven office buildings.

    Completed in Q1 2026, the development is 99% occupied. Tenants include Taqa, the Department of Energy, Emirates College and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

    The transaction expands the joint venture’s real estate portfolio in Masdar City, which is now valued at AED4.7bn ($1.3bn).

    Masdar City is one of the region’s leading hubs for clean energy, artificial intelligence, advanced research and sustainable urban development.

    The joint venture acquired The Link project at Masdar City for AED654m ($178m) in April.

    Comprising about 32,000 sq m of net leasable area across five buildings, The Link is fully leased to a portfolio of major tenants, including Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

    The asset includes Grade A, Leed Platinum office space, a net-zero-energy headquarters building, a multi-use hall and residential accommodation, supporting its position as a high-performing, integrated component of Masdar City.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19748241/main5814.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Neom tenders Oxagon highway contract

    17 September 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Neom has tendered a design-and-build contract covering permanent upgrade works on Highway 55 in the kingdom’s Oxagon region.

    The first phase of the project includes constructing 14 kilometres of road, with two lanes in each direction. It also covers one bridge and three interchanges.

    The project duration is 22 months.

    Contractors have been given until 21 September to submit their proposals.

    Highway 55 connects the Red Sea coast with the mainland in northwestern Saudi Arabia. It is currently the only road providing north-south connectivity between Duba and the Neom region.

    MEED exclusively reported in August 2025 that contractors had submitted responses to the expressions of interest notice that Neom had issued earlier that month.

    The project is expected to support the movement of cargo vehicles from Duba Port to other parts of the country and the wider region.

    Neom tested a pilot initiative last year by handling a shipment that travelled from Cairo via the Port of Safaga, across the Red Sea to the Port of Neom, and then inland to Erbil, Iraq.

    In a statement, Neom said: “The shipment travelled through an intermodal corridor spanning over 900 kilometres, marking a significant milestone in the kingdom’s transformation into a regional and global logistics hub.”

    The Port of Neom is located on the Red Sea near the Arar border, a key entry point into Iraq.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19746896/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal