meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Regional diplomacy fails Syrian economy

6 June 2024

 

Syria’s dire economic position continues to worsen. In a report issued in May, the World Bank predicted the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year, following a 1.2% decline in 2023.

The economy had already contracted by 54% between 2010-21, according to the Washington-based body. Its international trade has also entered freefall, with the value of exports falling from $8.8bn in 2010 to just $0.7bn in 2023, while imports dropped from $17.5bn to $3.2bn over the same period. Syria was once an oil exporter with a large agriculture sector, but it has become reliant on fuel and food imports.

What makes matters worse is that the cost of importing goods is now far higher than it once was, thanks to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound. In 2011, you needed £Syr47 to buy one US dollar; by 2023, the cost had risen to more than £Syr12,500 for every greenback. Last year alone, the Syrian pound declined by 141% against the dollar, while inflation was running at 93%.

Agriculture fared slightly better in 2023 due to improved weather conditions compared to 2022, but the north of the country suffered a devastating earthquake in February 2023, which killed several thousand people and destroyed thousands of homes.

The authorities have few spare resources to devote to rebuilding areas devastated by natural disasters or the civil war. 

The government has lost control over oil revenues to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which holds the oil-rich parts of the country. The security challenges of the past 13 years have also led to a downturn in most other parts of the economy and enfeebled the government’s ability to collect taxes.

The World Bank estimates that, after adjusting for inflation, government revenues are now 85% lower than before the war.

The poor living conditions prompted a fresh wave of protests in Daraa and Al-Sweida in August 2023, which then spread to other government and rebel-controlled areas of the country. Locals have much to complain about.

The International Rescue Committee reckons that nearly three-quarters of Syria’s population, or more than 16.5 million people, require some sort of humanitarian assistance and upwards of 90% of Syrians now live in poverty.

Smuggling economy

One area of activity that has prospered has been the production and export of Captagon. This illegal amphetamine-like drug is smuggled in huge quantities into the Gulf, where it finds a ready market despite concerted efforts by the authorities there to clamp down on it.

The World Bank has estimated Syria’s Captagon trade was worth between $1.9bn and $5.6bn a year from 2020-23; that higher figure is not far below the country’s GDP of $6.2bn in 2023.

Those linked to the Syrian trade are thought to earn between $600m and $1.9bn in revenue a year. To put that in context, the revenue generated from all legal exports from Syria last year was $960m.

The Captagon trade might be enriching some figures close to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, but it is also undermining the country’s wider economic prospects.

One potential avenue for rebuilding the shattered economy is to attract inward investment and the rich Gulf countries are an obvious potential source for that.

However, despite the diplomatic normalisation with Gulf governments over the past few years, the hoped-for investment flows have not materialised, with unhappiness over the Captagon trade a key factor – even if there have been some signs of a reduction over the past year or two.

Caroline Rose, who runs the Washington-based New Lines Institute’s research project on the Captagon trade, said: “We keep tabs of recorded Captagon seizures … and noted a slight dip in Captagon seizures region-wide between 2022 and 2023, so the reduction in seizures could be related to a stabilisation in the supply and production of Captagon.” However, she added that Syria continued to export the drug “at industrial levels”.

Investment brakes

The drug trade is not the only barrier to attracting foreign capital, though. Inward investment has also been hampered by US sanctions set out under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, generally known as the Caesar Act, and the myriad problems within the domestic economy are also a major hurdle for any would-be investor.

“When it comes to business and investment, Syria does not really provide any good environment for that. You have high costs, high risks, absence of rule of law, low purchasing power,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at UK thinktank Chatham House, in April. “Businesses in general will not be tempted to go and open businesses there because the gains are low.”

Some regional aid has been flowing in, though. Arab countries raised their contributions from 2% of the total aid in 2022 to 15% in 2023, with the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being the largest donors.

Others have been focusing their efforts on the plight of the millions of Syrian refugees displaced inside the country and beyond its borders in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Since the war started, around half of Syria’s 23 million-strong population has been displaced, with more than 5 million fleeing abroad.

Some €7.5bn ($8.1bn) of grants and loans were pledged by international donors to help Syrian refugees at the Brussels VIII Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on 27 May.

But until a political resolution to the civil war can be found, Syria’s enormous economic and humanitarian crises are unlikely to be solved. Speaking at the Brussels conference, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a “Syrian-owned political solution … is the only credible path for all Syrians to live in peace and stability, and for refugees to return home.”

Gaza conflict renews violence in Syria

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854850/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Libya and Tunisia reschedule joint oil and gas licensing round

    19 August 2026

    The Libyan-Tunisian Joint Oil Exploration, Exploitation and Petroleum Services Company (Joint Oil) has rescheduled its planned licensing round for offshore exploration and development projects in a zone spanning the waters of both countries.

    The bidding process is now due to open on 7 September 2026, with bid submissions due by 8 January 2027.

    Previously, in May, Joint Oil said it planned to open the bid round on 1 August 2026.

    The upcoming round will offer two oil and gas packages. The first is an exploration package across the 3,000-square-kilometre Joint Oil Block, in water depths of 80-120 metres.

    Significant data are available on the geology of this area, including 6,500km of 2D and 1,900 square kilometres of 3D seismic data. Data also exists from a run of legacy wells dating to 1976.

    The second package covers development of the Zarat discovery specifically. This is a gas-condensate reservoir straddling the boundary between Tunisia’s national acreage and the jointly-held Joint Oil Block.

    Joint Oil is equally owned by Tunisia’s national oil company, ETAP, and OLA Energy Holdings, a subsidiary of the Libya Africa Investment Portfolio (LAIP).

    LAIP is a subsidiary of Libya’s sovereign wealth institution, the Libya Investment Authority.

    Joint Oil was established under a bilateral agreement between Libya and Tunisia in 1988 to explore and develop hydrocarbons in offshore areas shared by the two countries.

    The key dates from the new schedule for the licensing round are:

    • 7 September 2026: Bid round opens; qualified offshore operators can apply for access to the Virtual Data Room
    • 9 September 2026: Joint Oil presents the opportunity at the MMEA Scout Group meeting in London
    • 29-30 September 2026: Joint Oil presents at the World Energy Summit in London
    • 31 December 2026: Bid round closes
    • 8 January 2027: Bid submissions due
    • 26 February 2027: Winning bidders notified
    • 30 April 2027: Formal awards expected

    Texas-based Moyes & Co is acting as a strategic adviser on the licensing round.

    Houston-headquartered Marathon discovered the Zarat field in 1992. It is estimated to hold around 0.4 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas and 50 million barrels of liquids.

    A previous development project concept centred on a mobile production unit, worth around $1bn, tied back to the nearby Miskar platform.

    Despite this, the field has remained undeveloped for over three decades.

    One of the key challenges to developing the reserve is its high carbon dioxide content.

    Joint Oil has run bid rounds for the acreage before without success, including as recently as late 2023.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18861047/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • UAE cuts trade and financial links with Iran

    19 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UAE has halted all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on 19 August.

    The suspension has been imposed in light of escalations that undermine regional and international peace and security, the ministry said. It did not specify a timeframe for any resumption.

    The ministry rejected allegations regarding the status of the economic relationship between the UAE and Iran, and restated the UAE's commitment to dialogue, cooperation and regional integration as means of advancing peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

    It said the UAE remains committed to safeguarding the integrity of the financial system, in line with international law and global standards.

    The suspension covers the full range of commercial and financial links between the two countries. The UAE has historically been one of Iran's most significant trading partners, with much of the relationship built on re-export trade routed through Dubai to Iranian ports across the Gulf.

    The ministry statement did not detail the mechanism for enforcing the halt, the sectors affected, or arrangements for existing contracts and in-transit cargo.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18857953/main0856.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Abu Dhabi begins Dar Al-Funoon Saadiyat construction

    19 August 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi-based piling contractor APCC Piling & Marine Contracting has started the enabling works on Dar Al-Funoon, a cultural development near the Saadiyat Cultural District.

    The project, commissioned by the Department of Culture & Tourism – Abu Dhabi, was designed by the late Canadian-American architect Frank Gehry.

    The venue is scheduled to open in 2030.

    MEED understands that the main contract bids are under evaluation and the project is slated for award soon.

    The complex will feature a multipurpose hall with more than 2,000 seats, a 3,500-seat open-air amphitheatre, a 400-seat studio theatre and a 250-seat jazz venue, bringing total capacity to more than 6,000 across its performance spaces.

    The venue will host leading international productions, delivering high-quality cultural experiences for audiences locally, regionally and globally.

    Upon completion, it will become one of the region’s largest performing arts venues.

    The project was announced by Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council in June, as MEED reported.

    During a review of the plans, he was briefed on the architectural concept and the development and construction phases, as well as the venue’s advanced technical capabilities, which are being designed to meet the highest international standards for staging major global productions.

    The announcement is part of the ongoing development of Saadiyat Island, which already includes Louvre Abu Dhabi, Zayed National Museum, Natural History Museum Abu Dhabi, teamLab Phenomena Abu Dhabi and the upcoming Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18852155/main4145.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractor wins Dubai Canal drainage deal

    19 August 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Local firm Detech Contracting has won an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to upgrade and rehabilitate the East Dubai Canal stormwater system.

    The project, known as TF-16-C1, is part of Dubai’s Tasreef strategic plan to improve the emirate’s stormwater network, increase flood protection and enhance the resilience of Dubai’s infrastructure.
     
    According to a source, Lebanon's Khatib & Alami has also been appointed as a consultant on the project.

    The works will focus on upgrading existing stormwater infrastructure to increase capacity and improve reliability during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes upgrading the stormwater drainage system, laying pipelines and constructing manholes and gullies. It also includes the construction of pumping stations and diversion works, site clearance and other associated facilities.

    In February, MEED reported that the municipality had invited consultants to qualify for a contract to supervise three stormwater drainage projects (TF-16-C1, TF-15-C2 and TF-13-C1)

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation announced in July that it had won the EPC contract for the TF-15-C2 stormwater drainage network project located on Umm Suqeim Road in the Al-Barsha and Al-Quoz areas of Dubai.

    MEED understands contractor bids are still being evaluated for the TF-13-C1 project, which focuses on developing a drainage system for the Al-Marmum area.

    Detech has been awarded several packages under the Tasreef programme in the past 18 months.

    These include:

    • TF-16-C1: upgrading and rehabilitation of East Dubai Canal stormwater system
    • TF-15-C1: stormwater drainage system at Al-Wasl Road for communities west of Dubai Canal
    • TF-05-C1: stormwater drainage system in Jebel Ali 
    • TF-04: stormwater drainage system on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Al-Yalayis Road
    • DS-419: Tasreef rainwater drainage network: West Deira stormwater system upgrade and rehabilitation 

    As MEED exclusively reported, the municipality recently issued a letter of award for the TF-15-C1 project, covering the construction of a stormwater drainage system on Al-Wasl Road and communities west of Dubai Canal.

    The project includes the construction of a gravity-based stormwater pipeline network with diameters of up to 3.5 metres. It is estimated to cost $100m.

    This week, Dubai Municipality also issued three tenders for stormwater and sewerage infrastructure projects serving Hind City, Dubailand and surrounding areas.

    The projects cover drainage networks for Hind 4, connections to the stormwater network in Dubailand and a stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman.

    All three have bid submission deadlines of 10 September.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18850438/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Maaden and Aramco sign deal to create joint venture

    18 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) and Saudi Aramco have signed a shareholders’ agreement to form a joint venture (JV). Maaden will hold a 51% stake in the JV, while Aramco will own the remaining 49%.

    Before signing the shareholders’ agreement, the two Saudi state-owned companies signed a non-binding heads of agreement in January 2025 aimed at establishing the JV.

    “Combining the strengths of two leaders in their respective fields, the JV will focus on copper and other minerals critical to the energy transition,” the two parties said in a joint statement.

    The JV will focus on exploration across Zone 4, also known as the Transition Zone, within the Arabian Platform in Saudi Arabia. Spanning approximately 182,000 square kilometres – nearly 10% of the kingdom’s total land area – the expected exploration area stretches along a 100-kilometre-wide corridor running parallel to the Arabian Shield.

    “It represents a major new opportunity for mineral discovery in the kingdom,” Maaden and Aramco said.

    Copper, which is increasingly significant for electric vehicles, power networks, energy storage and renewable energy systems, will be a main focus of the JV.

    Copper accounts for more than 20% of the $1.2tn mined-metals market. The copper market is currently valued at about $250bn and is projected to grow to more than $400bn by 2035.

    The JV will also explore for other energy transition minerals, including zinc, lead and rare earth elements, “that are expected to be crucial to industries of the future”.

    “Leveraging advanced computational algorithms, [artificial intelligence] AI, and high-performance computing, the JV intends to target areas most likely to contain copper and valuable minerals, accelerating the path from regional screening to target definition and discovery. This is expected to support long-term sector development, reinforce the kingdom’s role in the global minerals value chain, and help meet rising demand for transition minerals,” the partners said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18833329/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen