meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman announces $790m industrial investment deals

    30 October 2026

    Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones has signed 28 investment agreements worth more than RO304m ($790m) for new projects and expansions across the country’s special economic zones, free zones and industrial cities.

    The agreements cover more than 2 million square metres (sq m) of land and span industrial manufacturing, food production, logistics, recycling and commercial activities.

    About $383.6m of the investment has been allocated to industrial cities operated by the Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn). Sohar Free Zone accounted for $152m, followed by the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad) with $143.1m, Salalah Free Zone with $85.6m and Khazaen Economic City with more than $27m.

    The projects are expected to support Oman’s efforts to diversify its economy, expand industrial production and attract private investment in line with Oman Vision 2040.

    Investment deals

    In Sohar Industrial City, Atlas Steel will invest more than $291.1m in a plant producing iron and steel products on a site of about 440,000 sq m.

    Fujian Mancheng Industries & Investment will invest $52m in a ceramics facility covering more than 241,000 sq m. Other investments in Madayn’s industrial cities include an $18.2m phosphate and nitrogen fertiliser plant planned by Gulf Company for Organic and Biological Fertilisers in Raysut, as well as projects involving structural metal products, paper and corrugated cardboard, and oil and gas equipment and services in Raysut, Ibri and Nizwa.

    In Sohar Free Zone, Sohar Automotive & Advanced Industries Company will invest $98.8m in an automobile assembly complex covering 317,000 sq m. The complex aims to attract vehicle manufacturers, automotive supply-chain companies and advanced-manufacturing businesses.

    Voltamp High Voltage Transformers has announced a $39m investment in a plant that will produce power and electrical-distribution transformers for regional and international markets.

    Lalan Middle East will invest a further $3.9m to expand its medical-device manufacturing facility.

    ALSO READ: Oman’s Madayn prepares $637m investment drive

    In Sezad, Al-Jazir Feed Plant will invest $104m in a shrimp-feed facility to support an integrated shrimp-farming project.

    In Salalah Free Zone, Al-Nawras Industries will invest $50m in a steel-structures manufacturing facility, while Integrated Gypsum Company will invest $20m in gypsum-products production. Marai Dhofar will invest $15.6m in the production of Italian cheeses and other dairy products.

    Projects in Khazaen Economic City include a plant by Aleemit International Services to manufacture electric-vehicle chargers and components, with an investment of more than $8.8m, and a $6.5m facility by Joger Modular Building Technologies to produce precast-concrete building components.

    Additional investments in Khazaen include construction materials, ready-mix concrete, industrial units, logistics facilities and warehouses.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21016368/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Sabic swings back to profit in Q3 with $224m net income

    30 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profitability in the third quarter of the year, reporting adjusted net income of SR840m ($224m) as revenue and earnings improved from the previous quarter.

    The Saudi chemicals giant had posted an adjusted net loss of $100m in the second quarter.

    Revenue increased 14% on a quarter-on-quarter basis to $7.51bn, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) climbed 40% to $1.27bn. Adjusted Ebitda surged 434% to $578.67m.

    Sabic’s net debt stood at $808m as of 30 September compared with $728m as of 30 June.

    Adjusted earnings per share rose to SR0.28 ($0.07) from a loss of SR0.13 ($0.03).

    The recovery occurred despite persistent margin pressure across the global petrochemicals sector and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

    Additionally, Sabic said it achieved $949.33m of its broader portfolio optimisation programme target of $3bn by 2030 in positive recurring Ebitda impact from its transformation efforts.

    During the third quarter, Sabic received its Local Content Certificate for 2025 from the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority, recording a score exceeding 61% – an increase of more than nine percentage points over the prior evaluation period. The company attributed the increase to domestic procurement agreements, including a memorandum of understanding with Lenovo.

    Capital projects

    After several years of subdued project spending, Sabic is beginning to step up investment in new production capacity, with major projects reaching key milestones this year.

    In February, affiliate Petrokemya awarded China National Chemical Engineering Group Corporation the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a new ethylene oxide catalyst production facility. The 4,000-tonne-a-year (t/y) unit at Jubail Industrial City includes catalyst carrier washing, drying facilities and associated utilities.

    Major ammonia-urea complex

    In September, Sabic Agri-Nutrients awarded South Korea’s Samsung E&A a $3.465bn EPC contract for its seventh production complex in Jubail Industrial City (San VII).

    The project will have an annual capacity of approximately 1.2 million metric tonnes of conventional ammonia and 2.6 million tonnes of urea, integrated with a post-combustion carbon-capture unit.

    The Ministry of Energy approved feedstock allocation for the project in March. San VII will expand the company’s total urea capacity by 54%, from approximately 4.8 million t/y to 7.4 million t/y.

    The development reflects a shift in project scope. Originally conceived as San VI – a low-carbon facility designed to yield 1.2 million t/y of blue ammonia alongside specialised nutrients – the scheme was re-engineered as a conventional ammonia and urea plant using carbon-capture systems to manage emissions intensity.

    Construction is scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Commissioning is slated for the third quarter of 2030, with full commercial operation targeted before year-end 2030.

    Sabic Agri-Nutrients positions the project as central to its 2040 strategy to expand export market share and support international supply chains.

    Greenfield methanol plant

    San VII is not the only major project moving forward.

    Also in September, Sabic subsidiary Saudi Methanol Company (Ar-Razi) secured feedstock approval from the Ministry of Energy to build a 1.8 million t/y greenfield methanol plant in Jubail.

    The project aligns with Sabic’s focus on scale in core petrochemical chains and provides intermediate feedstock for expanding domestic downstream manufacturing.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21015944/main2510.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • H&H continues to deliver Dubai projects

    29 October 2026

     

    Dubai-based developer H&H has launched Water Gardens, a mixed-use development in Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), and expects to award most of the construction contracts for its wider pipeline before summer 2027.

    Water Gardens comprises four buildings designed by UK architect David Chipperfield, arranged around a central garden and pedestrian-friendly public realm. The scheme combines offices, residences, hospitality and retail offerings, including the Four Seasons Private Residences Dubai at DIFC and residences under H&H’s Eden House brand.

    Construction is under way, and the developer says the project is scheduled for completion in 2028. DIFC Investments describes it as one of the final components of the original Gate District masterplan.

    Speaking to MEED at the launch, H&H chairman Shahab Lutfi said the office building and Eden House are due for completion in about 18 months. The Four Seasons residences are scheduled for delivery at the end of 2028, with a five-star hotel following later.

    Water Gardens is one of several projects H&H has under way. The company undertakes a selective portfolio of high-end real estate developments in prime locations in Dubai. These include the Carlyle Residences in DIFC; an Eden Hills villa community in Mohammed Bin Rashid City; and Dubai Peninsula, a waterfront scheme in the Jumeirah area that will include hotels operated by Aman and Rosewood.

    “We are awarding day in, day out,” says Lutfi. “I think we are awarding most of our contracts from now until summer next year.”

    Most of the company’s construction volume is in DIFC and Dubai Peninsula, with the Eden Hills villas accounting for a smaller share. Lutfi says H&H is talking to several of the emirate’s biggest contractors about upcoming packages.

    We are awarding [contracts] day in, day out

    Staged procurement

    H&H is managing cost pressures by splitting up its procurement. It awards main contracts covering concrete works with a large number of provisional sums, then tenders further packages as designs are completed. “We are taking on some of the risk, but we know how to manage the risk instead of just offloading it on the contract,” says Lutfi.

    He does not expect construction costs to fall in the next 12 months. Global inflation, driven by fuel prices and logistics costs, is already factored into the company’s plans. 

    “Waiting and trying to award at a cheaper price is not an option for us,” he says.

    Lutfi says rising costs need not erode margins for developers that keep unsold stock to sell at higher prices later in a project. Developers that sell out early are more exposed. “If you have already sold out two years ago, you are hurting your profitability,” he says.

    H&H is comfortable leaving 15%-20% of a project to sell on completion. The market usually expects developers to sell out before handover. 

    The company has not revised its masterplans or product mix in response to market conditions and continues to focus on large units.

    Supply chains have been a challenge this year, but Lutfi says the company is over that hurdle. H&H has sourced more materials locally and planned logistics further in advance. 

    Materials are reaching Dubai through bonded routes from Oman, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE, and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. 

    “It takes a little bit longer, but at least things are coming in,” he says.

    H&H relies on a relatively small group of contractors that work on most of its projects, and treats them as long-term partners. 

    Lutfi says contractors are attracted by the company’s financial stability and volume of work. “That can keep some people busy for the next five or six years,” he says.

    Lutfi notes that sales in the Dubai market have dropped, although enquiries have picked up since the summer as buyers weigh whether it is the right time to purchase. The distressed sales that some had expected have not materialised.

    “A 5% discount in some units is not really a distress sale,” he says. “It is just someone trying to get a discount because of the region’s situation, which actually builds confidence.”

    For Water Gardens, H&H has sold 85% of Four Seasons Private Residences Dubai at DIFC since sales began in 2024. The company launched sales at the Carlyle Residences before the regional disruption and has since sold units one-to-one to selected clients. More Four Seasons units have been sold in the past two weeks. 

    “Branding makes a big difference,” says Lutfi.

    The company markets its branded residences through a global network of brokers rather than via public campaigns or launch events. Eden Hills, which is aimed mainly at Dubai residents, is marketed more widely.

    Lutfi expects buyers to be more cautious about buying off-plan. H&H is building new sales centres at Dubai Peninsula and in DIFC so that clients can see the product before they commit. 

    “People have to come in, know exactly what they are buying, and they will feel comfortable paying the price – instead of just having a pretty brochure,” he says.

    He expects demand for villas to become more local and regional, while branded residences will continue to attract international buyers. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21012636/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Riyadh Expo sets November bid deadline for Souq construction

    29 October 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), responsible for delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has allowed contractors until 11 November to submit bids for a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the Expo site.

    The tender was floated on 30 July, with an initial submission deadline of 9 October.

    The Souq areas are divided into five distinct precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 square metres (sq m).

    The scope includes the five precincts and their associated vertical elements, infrastructure and public realm works. 

    The precincts comprise:

    • Precinct 1 – The Icon: 41,417 sq m
    • Precinct 2 – Place & Planet: 62,306 sq m 
    • Precinct 3 – Culture of Wisdom: 67,112 sq m  
    • Precinct 4 – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: 45,967 sq m  
    • Precinct 5 – Adaptation & Innovation: 82,358 sq m

    The package will interface with three public parks. It will also tie into the Natural Corridor, including bridges.

    The Souq areas will form a mixed-use destination at the centre of Expo 2030 Riyadh, connecting the site’s iconic and thematic assets.

    The development will include rented and partnership pavilions, alongside a range of food and beverage, retail and visitor-experience offerings.

    Site progress

    Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

    Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City awarded a design-and-build contract to build a new metro station serving the Expo 2030 site.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts to local firm Al-Yamama Company for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

    That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20998514/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq oilfield water scheme to hit milestone next year

    29 October 2026

     

    China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPP) expects to start laying pipeline for Iraq’s Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) in Basra in mid- or late next year, according to industry sources.

    The project is behind schedule, partly because importing sections of pipeline is proving challenging due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The project is being managed by state-owned Basra Oil Company (BOC), with Australia’s ILF acting as a project management consultant after completing the front-end engineering design (feed).

    Under current plans, the pipelines will be buried, which is expected to make them more secure than if they were installed on the surface.

    Phased development

    The client for the first phase of the CSSP is France’s TotalEnergies in partnership with QatarEnergy and BOC.

    The first phase is split into two packages currently under execution and will ultimately have the capacity to transport 5 million barrels a day (b/d) of water.

    The first package focuses on developing pipelines, and the second on developing a water treatment facility.

    CPP is executing the pipeline package contract.

    It signed a $2.5bn contract with BOC for the package in September last year.

    Also in September 2025, South Korea’s Hyundai announced that it had signed a contract worth 4.39tn won ($3.16bn) for the processing plant package.

    In September this year, MEED reported that early groundworks had started for both packages of the first phase of the CSSP.

    Phase one of the project is scheduled to start up in late 2028 or early 2029.

    Earlier this month, US-headquartered Exxon Mobil signed a memorandum of understanding related to the project’s second phase, which is expected to add 2.5 million b/d of water capacity.

    The CSSP will inject processed water into several of Iraq’s biggest oil fields. These include Rumaila, Zubair, West Qurna 1, West Qurna 2 and Majnoon. Water from the project will also be used in the Maysan and Dhi Qar fields.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20981033/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp