meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Public Investment Fund backs Neom

    16 April 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has backed Neom by including it as one of six strategic ecosystems in its newly approved 2026-30 strategy.

    The future of the $500bn gigaproject had been thrown into doubt following the postponement of the 2029 Asian Winter Games at the Trojena mountain resort, the cancellation of construction contracts – such as the $5bn deal with Italian contractor Webuild for dam works at Trojena – and the slowdown of development at The Line, where tunnelling contracts were cancelled and staff left the project.

    The backing comes as Neom’s operational focus appears to be evolving in response to shifting regional dynamics and global economic conditions. For example, on 15 April Neom posted on its official X account about a new Europe-Egypt-Neom-GCC corridor, describing it as a faster route for time-sensitive goods. It said the corridor combines trucking and ferry services to move goods quickly into the Gulf, adding that importers from several European markets are already using it to reach the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and beyond.

    Powered by Pan Marine, DFDS and regional RoPax services, the initiative is positioned as a way to add flexibility and resilience to regional supply chains. This emphasis on logistics and immediate trade utility suggests a shift away from the more speculative architectural announcements that characterised Neom’s early years, towards activity more directly tied to current market realities.

    PIF’s broader 2026-30 strategy places heavy emphasis on “delivering competitive domestic ecosystems to connect sectors, unlock the full potential of strategic assets, maximise long-term returns and continue to drive the economic transformation of Saudi Arabia”.

    The inclusion of Neom as a standalone ecosystem within the Vision Portfolio suggests that while the project remains part of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals, it will be subject to the fund's focus on working with the private sector.

    That means the long-term success of Neom will increasingly depend on its ability to attract external investment and function as a viable economic hub rather than just a state-funded construction site.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16417262/main.jpeg
    Colin Foreman
  • Kuwait gas project worth $3.3bn put on hold

    16 April 2026

     

    State-owned Kuwait Gulf Oil Company’s (KGOC’s) planned tender for the development of an onshore gas plant next to the Al-Zour refinery has been put on hold due to uncertainty created by the US and Israel’s war with Iran, according to industry sources.

    The project budget is estimated to be $3.3bn, and the last meeting with contractors to discuss the project took place in Kuwait on 10 February.

    Previously, it was expected to be tendered in late March, but the tendering process was delayed due to the regional conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    One source said: “This tender is now effectively on hold while KGOC waits for increased stability in the region before it invites companies to bid for the contract.”

    Under current plans, the plant will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cubic feet a day of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra offshore field, located in Gulf waters in the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.

    Ownership of the field is disputed by Iran, which refers to the field as Arash.

    Iran claims the field partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development.

    It is believed that the Dorra field’s close proximity to Iran will make development difficult due to the current security environment.

    The offshore elements of the project are expected to be especially difficult to protect from attacks from Iran.

    In July last year, MEED reported that KGOC had initiated the project by launching an early engagement process with contractors for the main engineering, procurement and construction tender.

    France-based Technip Energies completed the contract for the front-end engineering and design.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16413221/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq pushes to revive oil pipeline through Saudi Arabia

    16 April 2026

    Iraq is pushing to revive an oil pipeline that passes through Saudi Arabia, allowing it to diversify export routes.

    Saheb Bazoun, a spokesman for Iraq’s Oil Ministry, said the pipeline would help to insulate Iraq from any future blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since 28 February.

    The original pipeline through Saudi Arabia has not been used for more than 30 years and would need work to be done in order to bring it online.

    It is 1,568km long, extending from the city of Zubair in Iraq to the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

    The pipeline was built in two phases during the 1980s. The first phase stretches between Zubair and Khurais, while the second extends to Yanbu. The pipeline’s operating capacity reached over 1.6 million barrels a day (b/d).

    Following the Gulf War, the pipeline was shut down in August 1990. It has remained out of operation for decades, despite Iraq’s several attempts to restart it.

    The original pipeline project cost over $2.6bn, including storage tanks and loading terminals.

    In the wake of the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February, global markets have lost 11 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil supply due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16413290/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Algeria opens bidding for water treatment plant

    15 April 2026

     

    State-owned Cosider Pipelines, part of Algeria’s public infrastructure group Cosider, has issued a tender for the construction of a demineralisation plant in In Salah in Algeria.

    The contract covers the design, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of a plant with a treatment capacity of 62,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    The tender is open to local and international companies specialising in the design and construction of demineralisation and reverse osmosis desalination plants.

    The bid submission deadline is 26 April.

    The project will be located at In Salah, a key industrial area in southern Algeria, where treated water supply is important for both municipal and industrial use.

    Cosider said that individual bidders must demonstrate that they have completed at least one reverse osmosis demineralisation or desalination plant with a capacity of 20,000 cubic metres a day or more.

    They must also show an average annual turnover of at least AD1bn ($7.7m) for their five best years over the past decade.

    For consortium bids, all partners must share full responsibility for the contract, while the lead company must meet the technical and financial requirements.

    Recent projects

    In 2023, MEED reported that Riyadh-based water utility developer Wetico had won two contracts to develop water desalination plants in Algeria.

    Societe Algerienne de Realisation de Projects Industriels (Sarpi) awarded the contract for the El-Tarf desalination plant, while Entreprise Nationale de Canalisations (Enac) is the client for the Bejaja facility.

    Both plants were commissioned in 2025, each with a production capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Separately, Wetico was the main contractor on a third plant commissioned last year. The Cap Dijinet 2 seawater desalination plant in Boumerdes province covers 18 hectares and also has a capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    Like many countries, Algeria is facing pressure on resources due to longer and more frequent droughts. Seawater desalination is seen as a key driver of the government’s strategy to guarantee drinking water supply.

    According to previous reports, the government is planning to build up to six additional plants by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16404325/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • WEBINAR: UAE Projects Market 2026

    15 April 2026

    Webinar: UAE Projects Market 2026
    Tuesday, 28 April 2026 | 11:00 GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the UAE projects market landscape
    • 2025 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Impact of the Iran conflict on the projects market and real estate, assessing supply chain disruptions, material cost inflation and war risk premiums
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Summary of key current and future projects
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Colin Foreman, editor of MEED 

    Colin Foreman is editor and a specialist construction journalist for news and analysis on MEED.com and the MEED Business Review magazine. He has been reporting on the region since 2003, specialising in the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy. He has reported exclusively on a wide range of projects across the region including Dubai Metro, the Burj Khalifa, Jeddah Airport, Doha Metro, Hamad International airport and Yas Island. Before joining MEED, Colin reported on the construction sector in Hong Kong.

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16401868/main.gif
    Colin Foreman