meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Local contractor to build nine Bahrain substations

    30 July 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has awarded the local Al-Kooheji Electrical a contract to build nine 66kV substations across the kingdom, according to a source.

    The project is estimated to be worth $110m and is intended to support rising electricity demand from Bahrain’s domestic, commercial and industrial sectors.

    Four local contractors submitted commercial bids for the contract in January. The bidders were:

    • Nass Contracting ($28.4m)
    • Poullaides Construction Company ($31.7m)
    • Mohammed Jalal Contracting ($32.4m)
    • Al-Kooheji Electrical ($34m)

    The substations will be located at South Hidd Industrial, Mondelez, Alba Downstream Park, Muharraq North, Hamala West, Bani Jamra, Hoora, Maqabah East and West Riffa Club.

    The scope includes the construction of the nine substations and control rooms, as well as the installation of transformers, switchgear and feeders connecting the facilities to the grid.

    It also covers communication cabling, monitoring systems, safety and security systems, and associated civil and structural works.

    As MEED understands, the substations are scheduled to be commissioned in stages. Two are planned for 2026, followed by four in 2027 and the remaining three in 2028.

    Serbia’s Energoprojekt Entel was appointed as consultant for the project in April 2025. The consultant’s contract was valued at about $460,000.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834380/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • CB&I’s newly acquired unit wins Abu Dhabi wells contract

    30 July 2026

    US-based Chicago Bridge & Iron (CB&I) has announced that its Asset Solutions business – acquired earlier this year from UK-headquartered contractor Petrofac – has won a hydrocarbon well services contract in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by Cosmo E&P Albahriya, a wholly owned UAE-based subsidiary of Japan’s Cosmo Energy Holdings Company (Cosmo).

    Under the well engineering services contract, CB&I Asset Solutions will support drilling, engineering, planning and operational activities for offshore Block 4 in Abu Dhabi.

    Cosmo secured 100% exploration rights for offshore Block 4 – covering 4,865 square kilometres of Gulf waters northwest of Abu Dhabi city – in February 2021.

    The block was offered in Abu Dhabi’s second hydrocarbons block competitive bidding round, launched by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in May 2019.

    “The award strengthens Asset Solutions’ position in the Middle East and solidifies new relationships with key regional operators. With shared goals of prioritising safe, stable and environmentally conscious production, CB&I’s UAE-based team will draw on its local and global experience of delivering innovative well engineering solutions,” the Texas-based CB&I said in a statement.

    ALSO READ: Abu Dhabi awards production licences for hydrocarbon blocks

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834142/main4710.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman tenders advisory for 3GW solar programme

    30 July 2026

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) has invited bids for financial and commercial consultancy services for the development of three 1GW solar independent power projects (IPPs).

    The projects will connect to Oman’s main interconnected system (MIS) and are targeted to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The successful bidder will provide financial and commercial consultancy services for the development of the projects and advise Nama PWP on the competitive tendering process.

    The tender was issued on 28 July, and the bid submissions deadline is 10 September.

    The three projects covered by the financial and commercial consultancy tender are understood to also be part of the 4GW programme, for which a technical advisory tender was issued on 15 July.

    As MEED reported, this covers four 1GW solar projects connected to the MIS, also targeting commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The deadline for bids is 26 August.

    Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) had earlier outlined the planned grid connection for four 1GW solar IPPs as part of the sultanate’s renewable energy expansion through 2030.

    The projects are included in OETC’s Five-Year Annual Transmission Capability Statement for 2026-30.

    The first, the 1GW Adam solar IPP, is scheduled for grid integration in 2028 and is further ahead in the procurement process, with Nama PWP issuing a request for qualification for the project in June.

    OETC said it expects the 1GW Al-Kamil 2 solar project to be integrated in 2030 through the planned Sadaf 400kV grid station. The 1GW Dhofar solar IPP and 1GW Mahadha solar IPP are also scheduled for integration in 2030.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17817321/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Azerbaijan seeks interest for wastewater PPP

    29 July 2026

    Azerbaijan has invited developers to submit expressions of interest (EoIs) for a public-private partnership (PPP) project to rehabilitate the Hovsan wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and develop new wastewater recycling facilities.

    The scheme will be Azerbaijan’s first wastewater PPP. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is advising the government on the project.

    The Hovsan WWTP is Azerbaijan’s largest wastewater treatment plant with a design capacity of 640,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    The project comprises two components. The first covers the rehabilitation, financing, operation and maintenance of the existing Hovsan plant to improve discharge quality and sludge management.

    The second component covers the design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of a new wastewater recycling facility with a capacity of 100,000 cm/d. The facility will supply recycled water for irrigation.

    The overall project is expected to serve up to 2.5 million people in Baku.

    ADB’s Office of Markets Development and PPP (OMDP) is acting as transaction adviser. Its role includes supporting project concept development and structuring, preparing and executing the competitive tender process, and assisting the government in achieving financial close.

    The deadline for interested firms to submit EoIs is 21 August.

    Azerbaijan has previously used the PPP model to attract private investment into large infrastructure projects, including in the water and renewable energy sectors.

    The country’s first PPP tender in the water sector was for a seawater reverse osmosis desalination plant at Sumgayit Industrial Park, northwest of Baku.

    As previously reported, a consortium of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa and Turkiye’s IC Ictas Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret won the contract to develop the $400m plant, which will have a capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    In September 2025, Acwa signed agreements with the government of Azerbaijan covering a public‑private partnership agreement, a land lease, a sovereign undertaking, and a product water sale and purchase agreement.

    The plant has a 27.5-year project term, with early commercial operations scheduled for the second half of 2028.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17805572/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife

    29 July 2026

     

    Kuwait’s construction and transport sectors are emerging from one of their strongest periods on record, with contract awards totalling $5.5bn last year, close to the record $5.6bn set in 2024.

    Against that backdrop, momentum has held up better than expected in 2026. Awards in the construction and infrastructure sectors reached about $1.2bn in the period to 27 July, only marginally down from the $1.6bn recorded over the same period last year. Given the disruption to investor confidence and tender timelines across the Gulf caused by regional conflict, the near-flat comparison points to a market that has held its footing rather than stalled.

    That steadiness reflects a broader push to keep major projects moving even as the region navigates a more uncertain operating environment. Underpinning the momentum is the $4bn engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract awarded to China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) in late December for the remaining phases of Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port on Boubyan Island, covering dredging, marine works and terminal infrastructure.

    Although the deal predates the current period of regional disruption, it helped establish momentum that has carried into 2026, with Kuwait continuing to advance large-scale schemes across ports, roads and utilities.

    This marks a notable shift for a market that, prior to its recent run, had a reputation for slow decision-making and a thin pipeline relative to regional peers. Contractors and consultants point to a steadier flow of tenders reaching the award stage this year, even with overall values marginally below last year’s pace – a gap narrow enough to suggest Kuwait’s pipeline has proven more insulated from regional volatility than many expected.

    Infrastructure pipeline

    Kuwait’s infrastructure pipeline is now approaching $16bn, spanning ports, roads and utilities projects at various stages of tendering and execution. The most recent addition came at Shuaiba Port, Kuwait’s oldest and principal industrial gateway, where the Kuwait Ports Authority (KPA) received bids in July for infrastructure and electrical modernisation works.

    The package sits alongside longer-term plans for Shuaiba. Since December, KPA has been in talks with Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group over a possible concession to develop a new container terminal, adding to a pipeline that already includes upgrade works at Shuwaikh and Doha ports under KPA’s wider tender programme.

    Elsewhere, Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has opened commercial bids for two major infrastructure and public buildings packages at South Al-Mutlaa Residential City. Local firm United Buildings Company has emerged as the lowest bidder on both, with combined offers worth KD44m covering the construction, completion and maintenance of services, infrastructure and public buildings across different district centres.

    Tendering is also under way for the estimated KD222m ($718m) rainwater drainage networks serving Sabah Al-Ahmad, South Sabah Al-Ahmad, Al-Khairan and Al-Wafra. The works comprise a major concrete sewer, three collection basins and an extensive stormwater drainage network, with collection tanks linked through an independent system that discharges to sea via the Nuwaiseeb outlet.

    Construction gains pace

    This infrastructure momentum has been mirrored in the construction sector, where Kuwait awarded an estimated $232m contract to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) in mid-July to construct the new headquarters of the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority (KDIPA). The contract covers a 275-metre, 55-storey office tower in Kuwait City’s Sharq district, targeted for completion in the second quarter of 2028.

    Beyond the KDIPA award, several schemes forming part of Kuwait’s estimated $36bn construction pipeline are expected to progress in the coming months.

    The largest is the first phase of the planned $22bn Sabriya City project, for which Beijing- and Shanghai-listed Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) is expected to sign one of the main contracts. MCC presented a fully funded proposal to Kuwaiti ministers for the city last year. The project is expected to include 52,000 housing units, alongside a power plant, hospital and marina.

    Consultants are meanwhile bidding for the design and supervision of the estimated $580m service hub buildings at Al-Mutlaa Health City, a project spanning more than 351,000 square metres.

    The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) has also awarded two landmark public-private partnership (PPP) deals this year.

    In January, it awarded an estimated $252m contract to develop the Al-Muthanna Complex real estate project to a local consortium comprising Real Estate House, National Investments Company, Arkan Kuwait Real Estate Company, Beyout Holding Company and Osoul Investment Company. The contract covers the rehabilitation, development, operation and management of the complex under a 15-year usufruct arrangement.

    In February, United Real Estate Company was awarded the third phase of a waterfront real estate project in Sharq, Kuwait City, under a similar 15-year arrangement covering rehabilitation, development, operation and management.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17805093/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal