meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • French contractor begins work on Morocco’s Noor Atlas project

    24 March 2026

     

    France-headquartered Eiffage is carrying out construction works on phase one of Morocco’s 305MW Noor Atlas solar photovoltaic (PV) programme, according to sources close to the project.

    Morocco’s National Office of Electricity & Drinking Water (Onee) and the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (Masen) recently signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) for the programme covering the development, financing, construction, and operation of six solar PV power plants.

    The plants were tendered in two lots in 2022, covering the eastern and southern parts of the country.

    The first lot comprises the following four projects:

    • Ain Beni Mathar: 121MW
    • Enjil: 42MW
    • Boudnib: 33MW
    • Buonane: 29MW

    The second lot comprises two solar PV projects in Tan-Tan and Tata, with each having a planned capacity of 40MW.

    Eiffage, through its subsidiary Clemessy Maroc, previously carried out electrical works on Morocco’s Noor Tafilalt solar programme.

    However, it is understood that the contract for lot one is the company’s first role as full engineering, procurement and construction contractor for a solar project in the region.

    Local media reports previously said plants under the programme will be developed by consortiums comprising Moroccan and European companies.

    Contractor details for phase two of the project have not been disclosed. However, it is understood that construction work has begun, with the project scheduled to begin delivering electricity by July 2027.

    In 2025, Masen established a dedicated subsidiary (Noor Atlas Energy Company) to oversee the project’s implementation.

    Germany’s development bank KfW and the European Investment Bank (EIB) are providing concessional financing, while Bank of Africa is providing commercial financing (local) for the project.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is acting as consultant on the project.

    In May 2025, Onee obtained EIB financing of €170m and KfW financing of €130m to expand the national grid by 731  kilometres and increase its evacuation capacity by 1,850 MVA.

    EIB previously announced in 2018 that it is providing concessional financing of €129m under the ELM guarantee for Noor Atlas, against a total project cost of €272m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16100781/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman issues more Sultan Haitham City construction tenders

    24 March 2026

    Oman’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning (MHUP) has released new construction packages covering road and public realm infrastructure for the first phase of the Sultan Haitham City project, located to the west of Muscat.

    The latest package to be tendered is the construction of transport network connectivity and utilities from Sultan Qaboos Road.

    The tender was floated on 13 March. The deadline for bid submission is 28 April.

    The scope covers the road connections linking Sultan Haitham City to Sultan Qaboos Road, as well as the associated civil and utilities scope.

    This includes bridges and grade-separated structures, utility buildings, stormwater and drainage assets, and medium- and low-voltage electrical installations. 

    Separately, MHUP has also tendered the delivery of a major green space within the development. The tender for the construction of a park and associated utilities was floated on 21 January, with a bid submission deadline of 3 May.

    The scope covers construction of the primary park spanning around 45 hectares, including related structures, landscaping and wet and dry utilities, as well as tie-ins to the project’s main services networks.

    The other package, also issued in January, covers landscaping works to the public realm of primary roads surrounding Neighbourhood 10. The bid submission deadline is 6 April.

    Earlier this month, Oman signed 17 international investment and development agreements worth over RO762m ($1.98bn) at the Mipim 2026 event held in Cannes, France.

    The deals were concluded through MHUP and partners at the Oman pavilion, and span mixed-use real estate, healthcare, agri-investment and digital planning tools.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16099787/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Sultan Al-Jaber calls Strait of Hormuz blockade “economic terrorism”

    24 March 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is an act of “economic terrorism”, with its global impact far beyond energy markets, Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber, the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, and managing director and group CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has said at an energy industry conference in the US.

    Speaking at CERAWeek, taking place in Houston, Texas, Al-Jaber said that when the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, the human cost is exponential, and the consequences reach factories, farms and families around the world.

    Al-Jaber, who is also chairman of Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar), said “energy security is not just a slogan, it’s the difference between lights on and lights off”. He stressed that the world’s critical arteries must remain open and the Strait of Hormuz is one of those arteries.

    “Twenty-one miles wide. Twenty million barrels a day. Nearly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Over a third of the world’s fertiliser. Almost a quarter of the world’s petrochemicals and significant amounts of industrial metals. In short, much of the oxygen of the global economy runs through a single throat. Yet, Iran believes that choking it is an acceptable strategy.

    “When Hormuz is squeezed, the pressure is immediately felt around the world. In just three weeks, the price of oil has risen by 50%. This is raising the cost of living for those who can least afford it and slowing economic growth everywhere. From factories, to farms, to families around the world, the human cost is mounting by the day,” Al-Jaber, who also serves as the executive chairman of Adnoc’s overseas investment vehicle XRG, remarked.

    “So let me be absolutely clear. Weaponising the Strait of Hormuz is not an act of aggression against one nation. It is economic terrorism against every nation. And no country should be allowed to hold Hormuz hostage, not now, not ever. And while we appreciate all efforts to stabilise markets and reduce prices, this is not a supply issue. It is a security issue, and it has only one durable answer: keeping the Strait open. We cannot trade our way out of this crisis,” he stressed.

    Al-Jaber stressed the UAE did not ask for conflict and had taken every possible step to prevent it. “But when the moment came, we were ready. Our defences have been tested. Our resilience has been tested. Our character has been tested. And we withstood.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc Gas says operations continuing despite security incidents

    “At Adnoc, we took hits no civilian enterprise, let alone one focused on delivering energy to the world, should ever have to take. We are deploying extraordinary measures to keep our people safe and to make sure, as much as possible, every customer and every stakeholder gets what they need,” he said.

    “We will continue to defend our nation and our way of life. In fact, this experience has only reinforced our model of pragmatic progress, rooted in realism not ideology, steady in its course, practical in its approach and relentlessly focused on results.”

    Al-Jaber said the UAE and Adnoc’s resilience was not a reaction, but the result of years of investment in infrastructure, preparation and long-term planning and strategic partnerships. “For the UAE, partnership is not just something we do. It is who we are. Our commitments are concrete. Our word is our currency. And when it really matters, we step up and show up.

    “That is why our relationship with all our partners, including the United States, endure. Through Adnoc, XRG and Masdar we have already invested more than $85bn in US energy assets, supporting power generation, advanced chemicals and jobs across 19 states,” Al-Jaber said, adding the US offers a unique combination of resource depth and investment stability.

    “We are actively exploring opportunities across the whole value chain. And we are keen to expand our investments in hard infrastructure from storage to liquefaction to regasification plants.”

    Turning to the future, Al-Jaber said the crisis has revealed two very different visions. One seeks to spread instability. One seeks to promote prosperity. The UAE, he added, made its choice long ago.

    “We built Adnoc into one of the most reliable energy companies on Earth not because disruption never reaches our borders, but because when it does, we stay the course. That’s why we have diversified how we produce energy. We have expanded the routes that connect supply to markets.

    “We have integrated all sources of energy at scale. We have embedded technology and AI across our operations as the force multiplier that will define the next era of energy. And we have built a global network of partners who believe that energy security is a shared responsibility.”

    Photo: File image

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16098176/main5554.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait contractor wins Shagaya power grid deal

    24 March 2026

    Kuwait-based contractor Power Grid Company has won a KD48.6m ($158.7m) contract to build a 400kV overhead transmission line linking the Shagaya solar energy generation station with Wafra in southern Kuwait.

    The contract was awarded by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).

    Power Grid was one of three firms that submitted bids last year, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    The other bidders included India’s Larsen & Toubro, with an offer of $135m, and Kuwait’s National Contracting Company, with a bid of $140m.

    The transmission line will connect Shagaya to the Wafra (Z) transformer station. The project forms part of the wider Shagaya masterplan, which is being developed as a key component of Kuwait’s renewable energy strategy, including the Shagaya renewable energy complex.

    The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) is currently procuring a 500MW solar photovoltaic (PV) independent power project (IPP) in partnership with MEWRE.

    As MEED exclusively reported, the deadline to bid for a contract to develop the plant was recently pushed back to the end of April.

    The plant is being developed under zone two of the third phase of the Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy project.

    In January, three consortiums submitted bids for a contract to develop Kuwait’s first utility-scale solar PV plant.

    The Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy phase three, zone one IPP will have a total power generating capacity of 1,100MW.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16097432/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Prequalification begins for Cairo Metro Line 2 upgrade

    24 March 2026

     

    Egypt’s National Authority for Tunnels (NAT) has issued a request for prequalification (RFQ) notice inviting firms to prequalify for a contract to rehabilitate and upgrade the Cairo Metro’s Line 2 network.

    The notice was issued in mid-March. The prequalification submission deadline is 30 April.

    According to the official notice, the scope of the works includes the design, execution, supply, installation, testing and commissioning of major system upgrades across the Cairo Metro Line 2 infrastructure and stations, along with integration into existing operational systems.

    The project aims to refurbish and modernise the metro line systems and enhance onboard communications across the current rolling stock fleet, to extend the metro system’s operational lifespan by at least 25 years.

    The contract duration is five years.

    The project is receiving a financing grant of €250m ($263m) from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), €240m ($252m) from the European Investment Bank (EIB) and €60m ($63m) from the Egyptian government.

    Cairo Metro Line 2 has been operational since 1996. The line runs from Shubra El-Kheima to El-Mounib, spanning about 21.5 kilometres (km) with 20 stations.

    The route includes 12 underground stations, six at-grade stations and two elevated stations.

    The track infrastructure is built around two primary track configurations.

    The line carries about 1.8 million passengers a day.

    The project is part of NAT’s key planned railway projects in the country. According to NAT’s official website, eight key projects, including metro lines, high-speed rail and light rail transit, are currently in the pipeline.

    According to GlobalData, the Egyptian construction industry is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2026, supported by rising foreign direct investment in the country, coupled with the government’s investment in energy and industrial construction projects.

    The industry’s expansion in the forecasted period will be supported by investments outlined in Egypt’s financial year 2025-26 budget, approved in June 2025. The budget includes a total government spending of E£4.6tn ($91.3bn).

    The infrastructure construction sector is expected to expand by 6.9% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in road, rail and port infrastructure projects.

    According to MEED Projects, Egypt has been the most active market for the rail sector in the Mena region, with contracts worth over $34bn awarded in the past decade.

    MEED’s March 2026 report on Egypt includes:

    > COMMENT: Egypt’s crisis mode gives way to cautious revival
    > GOVERNMENT: Egypt adapts its foreign policy approach
    > ECONOMY & BANKING: Egypt nears return to economic stability
    > OIL & GAS: Egypt’s oil and gas sector shows bright spots
    > POWER & WATER: Egypt utility contracts hit $5bn decade peak
    > CONSTRUCTION: Coastal destinations are a boon to Egyptian construction

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16097414/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal