meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Firms prepare Hudayriat East PPP tunnels advisory bids

    25 June 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi’s Modon Infrastructure, formerly Gridora, has tendered a contract for technical advisory services for the construction of two underwater tunnels connecting the eastern side of Hudayriat Island with mainland Abu Dhabi.

    Consultants have until 26 June to submit their proposals.

    The project includes the construction of a 4.8-kilometre (km) highway, with four lanes in each direction, connecting Hudayriat Island to Mussafah 8th Street.

    The project will be delivered on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis in coordination with the Abu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport and the Abu Dhabi Investment Office.

    The contract term is expected to be 25 years.

    The latest infrastructure development in Abu Dhabi follows Modon Infrastructure’s invitation in May for firms to register for the next phase of Abu Dhabi’s Mid Island Parkway Project (MIPP), which will also be developed on a PPP basis.

    Modon Infrastructure will act as the lead developer, holding the majority equity stake in the project company. It will award the engineering, procurement and construction contract, as well as the operations and maintenance services and advisory appointments.

    The second phase of the MIPP involves the construction of about 11km of highways, including a mix of three-, four- and five-lane sections. The highways will connect the Um-Yifeenah, Al-Jubail, Al-Sammaliyyah and Sas Al-Nakhl islands to Khalifa City and the E10 road.

    The scope also covers the construction of three interchanges: the E20, E10 and Dumbbell interchanges on Al-Sammaliyyah Island.

    The project includes several major structures, such as the E20 interchange, which will feature cast-in-place box-girder and void-slab bridges, and the E10 interchange with cast-in-place box-girder bridges. It also includes I-girder bridges between Raha Beach West and Sas Al-Nakhl Island, as well as a causeway at Sas Al-Nakhl Island.

    Further key elements include a cast-in-place balanced cantilever bridge between Sas Al-Nakhl Island and Al-Sammaliyyah Island; a tunnel between Al-Sammaliyyah Island and Bilrimaid Island; and a cut-and-cover (open) tunnel on Bilrimaid Island. The project will be completed with another tunnel connecting Bilrimaid Island to Um-Yifeenah Island.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17410214/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Algeria tenders upstream oil project contract

    25 June 2026

    Algeria’s state-owned national oil and gas company, Sonatrach, has tendered a contract for the development and rehabilitation of the central processing facility (CPF) at the Bir Berkine oil and gas field.

    The scope of the contract includes the study, supply, construction and commissioning of a project to rehabilitate the CPF facilities at the field, which is located in the Hassi Mesaoud region.

    Sonatrach says in the tender documents that the objective of the project is to ensure the continuity of production activities “under stable and secure operating conditions”.

    It also says the project aims to improve production yields and quality.

    The contract includes both initial and detailed studies as well as the supply of all equipment and materials.

    It also includes the execution of works, the assembly of all equipment and materials, and the commissioning of all relevant facilities.

    The tender has a two-stage submission process, with the first stage requiring technical bids to be submitted by 23 August.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17423013/main3916.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Red Sea Global tenders King Salman Bay construction work

    25 June 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Red Sea Global (RSG) has tendered a contract inviting firms to undertake marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay on the Red Sea coast, north of Jeddah.

    The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres.

    The bid submission deadline is 31 July.

    King Salman Bay is expected to be a waterfront development aimed at reshaping the city’s northern Red Sea frontage into a mixed-use destination, anchored by public-realm improvements and leisure-led development.

    The update follows RSG’s award of an estimated SR100m ($27m) contract to construct a solid waste management centre at its Red Sea Project. The scope includes four buildings: a material recycling facility, a transfer station, an administration building and a vehicle maintenance building.

    In October last year, MEED reported that RSG had secured a SR6.5bn ($1.7bn) credit facility to further develop Amaala, its luxury tourism destination on Saudi Arabia’s northwestern Red Sea coast.

    According to an official statement, “The funding is led by Riyad Bank as the sole underwriter, along with Saudi Investment Bank and Bank Al-Bilad as mandated lead arrangers.

    “The loan arrangement comprises a mix of conventional and Islamic financing and adheres to RSG’s Green Loan Framework, which was first established when it secured private funding from a consortium of four banks for the Red Sea destination in 2021,” the statement added.

    The announcement followed RSG’s opening of its first properties for sale at Amaala, including branded residential communities and a five-bedroom villa on a private island.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17430045/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • MECC submits lowest bid on three Kuwaiti oil and gas contracts

    25 June 2026

     

    Kuwait-based Mechanical Engineering & Contracting Company (MECC) has submitted the lowest bid across three separate contracts tendered by the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    The total value of the low bids is $427m, and all of the contracts are focused on developing substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds

    Five companies submitted bids for a contract to develop several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 6, 10 and 12 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD65,760,000 ($212m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD70,630,000 ($228m)
    • Amco Engineering & Construction: KD73,446,100 ($237m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD76,186,000 ($246m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD79,332,417 ($256m)

    Six companies submitted bids for a contract to develop several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 8 and 13 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD30,760,000 ($99m)
    • Badr Al-Mulla & Brothers: KD32,662,040 ($106m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD34,139,000 ($110m)
    • Industrial Company for Electrical Projects: KD36,375,520 ($118m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD37,278,526 ($120m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD37,790,000 ($122m)

    Eight companies submitted bids for a contract focused on developing several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 7, 9, and 11 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD35,760,000 ($116m)
    • Badr Al-Mulla & Brothers: KD39,447,165 ($127m)
    • Amco Engineering & Construction: KD39,736,800 ($128m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD40,105,000 ($130m)
    • Industrial Company for Electrical Projects: KD43,238,265 ($140m)
    • Engineering Company for Petroleum & Chemical Industries (Enppi): KD43,514,805 ($141m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD43,650,000 ($141m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD43,706,826 ($141m)

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been in crisis in recent months due to disruption from the regional conflict that started after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026.

    A preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, which was announced on 14 June, has increased optimism that disruption to the sector will decrease in the coming weeks.

    Under the terms of the agreement, both sides have stated that the free flow of vessels will be permitted through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly all of Kuwait’s crude oil is normally exported.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17423009/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Chinese firm wins $265m Saudi hospital contract

    24 June 2026

    Zhejiang Construction International, the local subsidiary of Chinese contractor Zhejiang Construction Investment Group, has won a $265m contract to build the Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University Speciality Hospital in Al-Khobar.

    Construction is expected to take three years from the start date.

    Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University awarded the contract.

    Located in Al-Raja district, Al-Khobar, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, the hospital project will cover about 60,000 square metres.

    The contract covers the construction of a 10-storey hospital building, two five-storey auxiliary buildings connected by corridors and a basement.

    Work will include civil works, mechanical and electrical installation, curtain walling, landscaping, detailed design and the procurement of medical equipment.

    The award is the latest in a series of contracts secured by Chinese contractors from Saudi entities in recent months.

    Last week, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipalities & Housing awarded contracts worth more than SR1.9bn ($506m) to Chinese contractors for two residential developments in the kingdom.

    China Architectural Construction Corporation won the first contract, valued at SR875m ($233m), to build 2,010 housing units at the Al-Ruba residential project in Riyadh.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation secured the other contract, valued at more than SR1bn ($266m), for the Al-Rasha Al-Faisaliah residential project in Dammam, comprising 2,426 housing units.

    GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia’s construction industry to record average annual growth of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17412846/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal