meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Algeria tenders 310km Tamanrasset railway

    16 October 2026

     

    Algeria’s state railway project developer, Agence Nationale d’Etudes et de Suivi de la Realisation des Investissements Ferroviaires (Anesrif), has invited national and international contractors to bid for the construction of a 310-kilometre (km) railway line between Hotel Station and Moulay Lahcen Station. 

    The planned line is a key segment of the proposed railway corridor connecting El-Menea, In-Salah and Tamanrasset across the southern wilayas of In-Salah and Tamanrasset.

    The tender notice was issued on 12 October, with bids due by 10 November.

    The tender is open to single contractors and consortiums. To qualify, single firms must have executed at least 200km of new railway lines or track-doubling works since 2010, with accepted project certificates covering sections of at least 100km, along with a cumulative 800 metres of railway bridges with individual spans exceeding 30 metres.

    Bidders must also provide at least two rail-tamping machines, two ballast regulators, and a project director with an engineering degree and at least five years of railway construction management experience.

    From a commercial and classification perspective, single bidders and consortium leaders must hold a category-nine (IX) professional qualification in public works.

    Bidders must also demonstrate an average annual turnover in construction of at least DZ260bn ($1.96bn) across the 2023-2025 financial period.

    For joint ventures, the cumulative turnover of all members must meet the $1.96bn threshold, with the consortium leader accounting for at least $1.3bn.

    Offers must be accompanied by a bid bond exceeding 1% of the total bid value for submissions exceeding $7.4m, with proposals remaining valid for 90 days beyond the submission date.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20665591/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Joint venture wins $246m RCRC bridges contract

    16 October 2026

     

    A joint venture of local contractor Mofarreh Group and Turkey-based Gulsan Holding has won an estimated SR923m ($246m) contract from the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) to construct a series of grade-separated steel flyovers across the capital.

    The contract, known as Package 2 (Groups 2 and 3), is part of RCRC’s urgent bridges programme under the wider project to build steel bridges at 10 junctions across Riyadh.

    The works have a 12-month execution timeline to fast-track traffic decongestion across major arterial corridors.

    The joint venture’s scope covers the engineering and construction of grade-separated steel bridge interchanges across seven key intersections:

    • IC04: Al-Khair Road and King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Road
    • IC05: Prince Turki Road and Imam Saud Road
    • IC06: Al-Takhassosi Road and Saeed Al-Sulami Road
    • IC07: Khurais Road and Al-Hareth Bin Abdullah Road
    • IC08: Khurais Road and Ash-Sharq Road
    • IC09: Khurais Road and Marmar Road
    • IC10: Al-Kharj Road and Al-Hilla Road

    The total length of the flyovers is 8.86 kilometres, excluding Junction IC10.

    In addition to the structural steel superstructures, concrete bridge foundations, decks and approach ramps, the contract includes retaining walls, utility diversions, temporary phased traffic arrangements, associated roadworks, drainage networks, roadway lighting, intelligent transportation systems and landscaping.

    The client received commercial proposals from several local and international contractors. Other bidders included:

    • Masco
    • Nesma & Partners
    • Al-Omaier Trading & Contracting Company 
    • Yuksel Saudia 
    • Batco 
    • Modern Building Leaders
    • Sapac

    The urgent bridges initiative is part of Riyadh’s rapid transport infrastructure programme to improve traffic throughput, enhance safety and ease vehicular congestion across central and ring-road corridors ahead of major events, including Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

    In July, Mofarreh Group and Turkiye’s Gulsan Holding formed a joint venture to bid for and deliver transport infrastructure projects in Riyadh for RCRC.

    The joint venture said it will target road, bridge, viaduct and interchange projects.

    Mofarreh will provide local market access and operational capacity, while Gulsan will contribute international experience in large-scale transport projects.

    The companies said the new venture will support knowledge transfer and localisation, and promote the use of international engineering and construction standards aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 infrastructure and sustainability goals.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20663255/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Humain tenders 100MW Riyadh AI data centre

    16 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi artificial intelligence infrastructure developer Humain has issued a request for proposals for an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to deliver a 100MW artificial intelligence (AI) data centre facility in Riyadh’s Al-Saad area.

    The tender was issued on 17 September, with bids due by 8 November.

    The contract includes core-and-shell works; civil works; mechanical, electrical and plumbing installation; testing and commissioning; and site infrastructure across a 350,200-square-metre plot.

    The project also includes an optional expansion phase that could raise total site capacity to 200MW.

    The initial 100MW development is split into two equal 50MW phases, structured across two single-storey IT buildings housing four 25MW data halls.

    Phase one targets a ready-for-service date by October 2028, followed by phase two in January 2029.

    Under the optional phase three, an additional 100MW facility would be brought online by July 2029.

    The data centre will be designed to support high-density graphics processing unit clusters and AI-compute workloads, with rack densities of 240kW to 250kW.

    The facility will be built to Uptime Institute Tier III topology and LEED Silver standards as a baseline, targeting LEED Gold.

    The operational design targets an annualised power usage effectiveness below 1.35.

    Power will be delivered through four 33kV connections supplied by Saudi Electricity Company from two separate high-voltage/medium-voltage primary substations. The scope requires 15 transformers, 15 static 2,250kW IT uninterruptible power supply (UPS) units, and 450kW mechanical UPS systems with lithium-ion battery storage for each 25MW block. 

    Backup emergency diesel generators will be provided on an owner-furnished, contractor-installed basis, with the EPC contractor handling their installation, connection and testing. Fuel storage will provide 24 hours of autonomous run-time, split between on-site underground bulk tanks and generator belly tanks.

    Thermal management combines air and liquid cooling. High-density server racks will be equipped with direct-to-chip liquid cooling loops using coolant distribution units and technical water distribution, paired with air-cooled chillers operating in dual high- and low-temperature loops, alongside fan-wall units.

    The total construction timeline is capped at 25 months from site handover or contract signing, with pre-execution early mobilisation scheduled to start in January 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20661045/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Adnoc Onshore seeks bids for Bu Hasa field EOR project

    16 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The onshore oil and gas business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Onshore) has sought bids from contractors for a key project to increase the oil production capacity of the Bu Hasa oil field, primarily through enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques.

    The main objective of the Bu Hasa-Shuaiba EOR Unit 1 (Phase 1) project is to achieve a targeted 70% increase in oil production, extend the Bu Hasa field development’s production plateau and maximise the field’s potential in an economical manner.

    The project aims to confirm and validate the optimum EOR technology for the top-ranked reservoirs/units; assess incremental recovery on top of the improved oil recovery (IOR) wedge; extend the field plateau for as long as is economically feasible; and achieve an ultimate recovery factor of 70% from the Shuaiba reservoir. It will evaluate and execute the recommended EOR option through pattern phasing for any technology proven by Adnoc.

    Adnoc Onshore is understood to have issued the tender for the project on 20 September, with an initial technical bid submission deadline of 8 October, according to sources. The client later extended the technical bid submission deadline to 17 October, sources told MEED.

    The chosen contractor will execute the project under a hybrid contracting strategy comprising:

    • A lump sum (turnkey) EPC scope covering the complete pipeline system from East Hub to the separation plant
    • A call-out-based scope for execution of all WAG injector and WSW tie-in works

    Unless otherwise specified, all activities defined under the contractor’s scope will be deemed included within the lump-sum contract price. This will cover engineering, procurement, construction, testing, pre-commissioning and support to commissioning for a complete and operable system.

    At the Bu Hasa field development, three remote degassing stations (RDS-1/2/3) and two satellite stations, Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila, are currently in operation. Production from oil wells completed in Shuaiba, Thamama B, Thamama F, Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila is routed via individual flowlines to the three remote degassing stations and the Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila stations across different parts of the field.

    Combined production from the wells at each of these stations is routed to the central degassing stations (CDS) via transfer lines ranging from 16 inches to 24 inches in diameter. In addition, some wells in the central part of the field are connected directly to the CDS.

    Previous studies have identified carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding as a promising tertiary recovery mechanism in the Shuaiba reservoir, delivering incremental recovery on top of the IOR wedge (P5 project), extending the field plateau as long as economically feasible, and achieving an ultimate recovery factor of 70% from the Bu Hasa Shuaiba units.

    Located 200 kilometres south of Abu Dhabi city, Bu Hasa is Adnoc Onshore’s westernmost producing field. It is one of Abu Dhabi's biggest onshore assets, with crude oil production capacity of 650,000 b/d. It is also one of the Adnoc Group’s oldest oil fields, having been discovered in 1962 and in production since May 1965.

    As part of the ongoing Bu Hasa Integrated Field Development Project (BUIFDP), 13 new well pads and two pad hubs have been added to the field. Oil, gas and water produced at these sites will be collected at a central gathering facility, then sent through production headers and transfer lines to the CDS for processing.

    Adnoc Onshore is the Adnoc Group’s largest oil-producing subsidiary, accounting for 2 million b/d of oil and about 7 billion cubic feet a day of associated gas production from four main onshore field developments in Abu Dhabi: Bab, Bu Hasa, North East Bab and South East.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20639750/main0548.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • OTTCO issues tender for Oman oil storage park expansion

    16 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Oman Tank Terminal Company (OTTCO) has issued the main tender for a major project related to the expansion of the Ras Markaz crude oil storage complex at Duqm, on the sultanate’s Arabian Sea coast.

    The project, titled Trade Bridge, involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of eight large storage tanks, each with a capacity of 650,000 barrels. This will increase the Ras Markaz terminal’s total storage capacity by 5.2 million barrels.

    The project represents the next expansion phase (phase 1.4) of the Ras Markaz oil storage terminal within the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad).

    State-owned OTTCO issued the prequalification notice for the project on 28 July, with contractors submitting initial responses by 4 August and final responses by 19 August, MEED previously reported.

    According to sources, OTTCO issued the main tender for EPC works on Project Trade Bridge in the weeks following completion of the prequalification exercise.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to have been prequalified by OTTCO to bid for Project Trade Bridge:

    • China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company (China)
    • China Tianchen Engineering Corporation (China)
    • Daqing Oilfield Construction Group Company (China)
    • Enppi Muscat (local branch of Egypt-based Enppi)
    • Gulf Petrochemical Services & Trading (Oman)
    • Hualu Engineering & Technology Company (China)
    • Rotary Engineering (Singapore)
    • Sinopec Ningbo Engineering Company (China)

    OTTCO commissioned the first phase of the Ras Markaz crude oil storage park, covering 10 square kilometres and with a capacity of 26.7 million barrels, in December 2022.

    The storage facility has two parts. The first is a marine services area, which includes a floating station for crude imports and exports. This zone is about 7 kilometres offshore and is connected via two 42-inch pipelines and associated facilities.

    In water depths of up to 42 metres, the floating station can accommodate very large crude carriers. It is linked to four main pumps that transfer crude oil to the storage area, which is located more than 120 metres above sea level. OTTCO could add pumps at a later stage to keep pace with future demand for oil storage.

    The second part of the storage facility features oil pumping systems, water treatment facilities, reservoirs, power station networks and other associated systems.

    Region’s largest oil storage park

    OTTCO will build the Ras Markaz oil storage facility in five phases over several years across an area of about 40 square kilometres, for which it signed a land agreement with Sezad in July 2017.

    It will be able to hold 200 million barrels of crude a year. Total investment in the scheme is understood to be $5.2bn.

    The storage terminal in the first phase of the Ras Markaz facility is connected to the estimated $7bn Duqm refinery and other oil-derivatives production plants at Sezad via a pipeline that will supply crude feedstock to the refinery when required.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20638090/main0749.jpg
    Indrajit Sen