Jordan policymakers walk tightrope

4 June 2024

 

Few countries will envy Jordan right now, as one of the Israel-Palestine-adjacent countries most severely impacted both economically and politically by the inevitable spillover of the war in Gaza.

Economic growth in Jordan has inevitably been hit by the conflict, especially in the country’s trade and tourism sectors. Domestic opposition to the war has meanwhile left Ammann walking a tightrope – opposing Israel while remaining part of a broad regional Western-backed coalition that saw Jordan play its part in stemming missile attacks launched by Iran at Israel in April.

The Gaza war is only one of a number of pitfalls confronting the government, which currently faces an unemployment rate of about 22%, desperate water scarcity, and the presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees topping up the country’s existing population of refugees from Iraq, Palestine and elsewhere.

In these invidious circumstances, the country has performed well, but has also suffered negative consequences.

“Jordan has preserved economic and political stability despite significant external shocks, including social instability in the region (Arab Spring) and wars in neighbouring countries (Iraq and Syria), but these shocks have led to lower growth and significant government debt build-up,” says Erich Arispe, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group.

For now, Jordan appears to be carrying off the delicate diplomatic work in relation to Israel. It is playing a critical role in the aid effort to Gaza, distancing itself from its neighbour by withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv, and mothballing a planned water-for-energy project.

But it has so far resisted pressure from domestic protesters to adopt a more assertive stance towards Israel – not least since the government is wary of putting its relationship with the US under stress and threatening the $1.45bn in annual aid it receives from Washington.

Jordan’s reliance on Israeli water supplies will also play a part in Amman’s calculus. The kingdom typically sources around 80% of its natural gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan field.

Despite deep antipathy to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, the reality is that Jordan is locked into a cooperative relationship with its neighbour, including through the Hashemite dynasty’s custodianship of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem.

Economic effects

While Jordan is unlikely to take radical steps to change its relationship with its neighbour, it remains deeply impacted by Israel’s actions, with the economic implications of the conflict in Gaza being felt nationwide.

The Jordan Hotel Association reported that about half of its hotel reservations were cancelled in October 2023. Fitch Ratings expects that lower tourism inflows, weaker external demand and continued regional political uncertainty will slow growth to 2.3% in 2024, from 2.6% in 2023.

“Nevertheless, we expect that the decline in US and European tourists will be partly compensated by resilience in Jordanian expats and regional tourists. Before the start of the Gaza conflict, Jordanian expats and Arab and GCC tourists accounted for almost three-quarters of total visitors,” says Arispe. 

Although the IMF warned in May that the continuation of the war and the trade route disruptions in the Red Sea are affecting sentiment, trade and tourism, barring a significant escalation, the Jordanian economy should be able to navigate the challenges.

While Jordan is primed to run a large current account deficit, at a projected 6.4% of GDP in 2024, this is still lower than the 6.8% deficit recorded in 2023.

According to Fitch, the general government deficit will ease to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, as expenditure restraint will balance lower-than-budgeted revenue growth and higher interest payments. 

“One of the main economic challenges for policymakers is to lift growth prospects to support a sustainable reduction in government debt,” says Arispe.

In its May rating affirmation, Fitch estimated that general government debt (consolidating central government debt holdings of the Social Security Investment Fund and including the Water Authority of Jordan debt and NEPCO guaranteed debt) rose to 93.3% of GDP at the end of 2023.

Although it forecast debt will decline to 91.3% by 2025, this will remain significantly above the projected 53.6% median for sovereigns rated ‘BB’.

“Jordan’s fiscal strategy aims to lower debt to 80% of GDP by 2028 based on a combination of revenue increases, through measures directed at broadening the tax base, and expenditure restraint,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, Fitch considers that the sustainability of the current fiscal strategy will depend on the success of reforms aimed at lifting growth prospects combined with increased employment.”

External support

For all the Hashemite kingdom’s vulnerability to regional conflicts, its strategic position also carries advantages. Jordan has attracted substantial external support in the past year, drawing on its status as a regional source of stability.

Early in 2024, the IMF began a new four-year, $1.2bn Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“From a broader perspective, one of Jordan’s strengths in terms of creditworthiness is the strong relations with multilateral organisations and allies, including the US and partners in the region, which supports Jordan’s financing flexibility. The sovereign is projected to receive total foreign assistance of $3.5bn (6.5% of projected GDP) in 2024,” says Arispe.

In addition, Jordan is attracting significant Gulf investment. In late May, the country’s Investment Ministry announced that Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) had completed the establishment of an infrastructure investment fund company in Jordan. This deal was first mooted during King Abdullah’s visit to Abu Dhabi in 2023.

This company will invest in infrastructure and development projects worth $5bn.

The government also remains committed to its reform agenda, for example, by gradually increasing water utility tariffs last year.

“We expect, though, that the pace of reform progress will continue to depend on the objective of preserving social stability, the resistance of vested interests and institutional capacity constraints,” says Arispe.

Reducing high unemployment is a government priority, especially among women and younger people.

The government is moving ahead with the first phase of its ambitious Economic Modernisation Vision 2023-33, which aims to increase growth potential (5%) and create 1 million jobs over the next decade through higher private investment in strategic sectors.

“The authorities have made progress in terms of digitisation of government procedures, most notably those related to investment, and public administration reform,” says Arispe.

“Nevertheless, increased geopolitical risks make it harder for the government to achieve the 2025 targets under the Vision’s 2023-25 first phase, including reaching 3% growth and exports reaching $13.7bn.”

Above all, the government will hope that external events will not yet have a negative bearing on an ambitious political reform programme that is invariably contingent on favourable regional relations.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854327/main.gif
James Gavin
Related Articles
  • Turner & Townsend to manage Abu Dhabi plant decommissioning Mark Dowdall

    20 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Turner & Townsend has been appointed by Taqa Transmission to provide programme management consultancy services for the retirement of a power-generating plant in Abu Dhabi.

    The existing plant, located in the east of Abu Dhabi, has a capacity of 1,640MW and 1,200 megavolt-amperes reactive (MVAr), and is scheduled for decommissioning in 2029. An upgraded, energy-efficient plant will be developed in its place, with a focus on integrating solar and nuclear power into the network to support decarbonisation.

    Turner & Townsend said in a statemet that it will establish a programme management office and provide strategic support to expand and facilitate the upgrade of the region’s power transmission and distribution infrastructure.

    This work will enable the construction of new grid and switching stations and substations, cable corridors and cable works, capacitor banks and high-voltage overhead lines.

    Earlier this month, the UK-based firm announced its appointment to provide project and cost management services for a hyperscale data centre project in Dubai.

    The facility is being developed by Dubai-based Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (Du) on a 20,000-square-metre site in the emirate.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14504637/main1637.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Abu Dhabi signs Sphere venue preconstruction agreement Yasir Iqbal

    20 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi’s Department of Culture & Tourism (DCT) and US-based Sphere Entertainment have finalised an agreement related to the construction, development and operation of the upcoming Sphere entertainment venue in Abu Dhabi.

    According to a Securities & Exchange Commission filing dated 25 July, DCT and Sphere Entertainment signed a joint development and partnership agreement, as well as a pre-opening services agreement for the project.

    According to the agreement, Sphere Entertainment has granted DCT the exclusive rights to build and operate the Sphere Abu Dhabi entertainment venue.

    The agreement also allows DCT the right to build and operate additional Sphere venues in the Middle East and North Africa region for at least 10 years after the opening of the Sphere Abu Dhabi venue.

    In October last year, DCT confirmed that it is working with US-based Sphere Entertainment to bring the world’s second Sphere performance venue to the emirate.

    According to Sphere Entertainment, the Abu Dhabi Sphere will be the first in a series of venues with a similar form to the Las Vegas venue.

    DCT will fund the construction, while Sphere Entertainment will provide services related to the venue’s development, construction and pre-opening.

    “DCT will also pay Sphere Entertainment a franchise initiation fee for the right to build the venue, utilising Sphere Entertainment’s proprietary designs, technology and intellectual property,” the statement added.

    The location and construction timelines have yet to be disclosed. According to the official statement, however, the venue is expected to be on a scale similar to the original 20,000-seater Sphere venue in Las Vegas.

    The estimated $2.3bn Sphere venue in Las Vegas was first announced in 2018, and construction was completed in 2023.

    US-based architectural firm Populous designed the venue and Aecom supported the construction works.

    According to renderings posted on Sphere’s official account on social media platform X, the Abu Dhabi Sphere will have a glowing exoskeleton, similar to its Las Vegas predecessor.

    Abu Dhabi Tourism Strategy 2030

    Establishing a Sphere venue in Abu Dhabi supports the city’s Tourism Strategy 2030, which was approved in May last year. The strategy, led by DCT, will expand and strategically develop the city’s travel and tourism sector.

    The strategy seeks to achieve a 7% year-on-year growth by increasing the number of visitors from 24 million in 2023 to 39.3 million by 2030.

    The plan also aims to increase the tourism and travel sector’s contribution to the UAE’s GDP from about AED49bn ($13.3bn) in 2023 to AED90bn ($24.5bn) by 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14503636/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai tenders drainage upgrade on key highways Mark Dowdall

    20 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai Municipality has issued a request for proposals (RFP) to construct a stormwater drainage system on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road and Al-Yalayis Road.

    The project is designed to improve drainage along two major transport routes, reducing the risk of flooding and maintaining traffic flow during heavy rainfall.

    It covers civil; mechanical; electrical; instrumentation, control and automation; and pipeline works, including construction of stormwater drainage lines of various diameters.

    The authority said the project will also include manholes, chambers, catch basins and vortex connections to existing networks. Non-disruptive pipeline installation methods are also specified.

    Bidders must submit technical, commercial and qualification proposals via Dubai Municipality’s electronic supply portal by 25 August.

    Evaluations will consider technical capabilities, company experience and the financial offer, the municipality said.

    The RFP details microtunnelling works for pipes ranging from 200 milimetres to 4,000 milimetres in diameter. This includes excavation, shoring, access and reception pits; traffic management; site protection; and the testing of materials and completed works.

    Contractors must also establish and maintain offices, equipment and vehicles for the supervising engineer’s staff throughout the project.

    Meanwhile, the municipality has opened bidding for the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of a stormwater network at the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant. Bidders are required to submit proposals by 3 September 2025.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14497367/main4142.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Forty-nine companies submit One-Stop Stations interest Yasir Iqbal

    20 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Forty-nine Saudi and international firms have expressed interest in a contract to develop the kingdom’s One-Stop Station project on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis.

    The project is being jointly undertaken by Saudi Arabia’s National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), in collaboration with the Roads General Authority (RGA).

    The project includes the development of facilities at several locations within the RGA’s 73,600-kilometre intercity road network.

    The facilities include refuelling stations, commercial facilities, parking lots, driver rest areas, vehicle maintenance centres and other hospitality amenities.

    The Saudi firms include:

    • Albawani
    • AlDrees Petroleum & Transport Services Company
    • Algihaz Holding Company
    • Alkifah Holding Company
    • Alyamama Company for Trading & Contracting
    • Alayuni Investment & Contracting Company
    • Aljari Oil Station Company
    • Alfahd Company
    • Alfanar Company
    • Almansouryah General Contracting Company
    • Almusbah Telecom Company
    • Almutlaq Real Estate Investment Company
    • Alrawaf Company for Trading & Construction
    • Annasban Group
    • Asyad Holding Company
    • Buhur for Investment
    • Cayan Group
    • Cooperative Society for Transport & Vehicles
    • Darb Stations Company
    • Elm Company
    • Erada Advanced Projects
    • Go Station for Petroleum Services
    • Liter Trading Company
    • Mada International Holding
    • Mohrkey Company
    • Mounes Mohamed Al-Shayeb for Civil Construction
    • Naft Alsayar Company for Fuel
    • Namaya International Investment Company
    • National Transportation Solution Company Petromin
    • Nesma Company
    • Pankingdom Real Estate
    • Petrogen
    • Petroly
    • Ports Projects Management & Development Company
    • Red Sea International Company
    • Roadsbaha
    • Sasco
    • Sevenplus
    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting Company
    • Sierra Asasat
    • SkyBridge
    • Zahrat AlSahra Trading & Contracting

    The international firms are:

    • Contrax International (UAE)
    • EDECS (Egypt)
    • IC Infrastructure (Turkiye)
    • Lamar Holding (Bahrain)
    • Meinhardt (Singapore)
    • Ramky Infrastructure (India)
    • Tamasuk Holding Company (US Minor Outlying Islands)

    The project will be implemented under a 30-year design, build, finance, operate and maintain contract, and will be tendered in three waves, comprising six packages.

    The first wave will include the initial package, while the second wave will encompass the second and third packages and the third wave will cover the remaining three packages.

    NCP issued the expressions of interest notice on 8 July and the firms submitted their expressions of interest on 28 July.

    Saudi PPP market

    The value of PPP contracts in Saudi Arabia has risen sharply in the past two years as the government seeks to develop projects through the private sector and diversify funding sources.

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the value of PPP concession contracts hit an all-time high of $28.2bn in 2023, equivalent to more than 23% of the total value of all project contracts awarded that year. Although this figure fell to 18.3% last year, it was still far higher than the historical average in the kingdom.

    The figures are even starker when taking only government spending into account. The value of signed PPP contracts totalled more than a third of the value of government or government-related projects awarded in 2023 and more than a quarter in 2024. This is compared to an average of 15.6% in 2019 and 2022, and just 3.5% recorded in 2018. 

    Government contracts include awards made by ministries, municipalities and royal commissions, in addition to state-funded project clients such as Saudi Water Authority, the National Housing Company and Jeddah Airports Company. Subsidiaries of sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, such as Neom, the National Water Company and Rua Al-Madinah, are also included.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14503278/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Middle East to be a growth leader for global construction MEED EDITORIAL

    20 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The global construction industry enters the second half of 2025 in a fragile but forward-looking position. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData’s recently published Global Construction Outlook to 2029 report, output for the sector expanded by 3.1% in 2024, supported by strong US activity and stimulus-driven infrastructure spending, but momentum is expected to cool in 2025 with forecast real-terms growth of 2.3%.

    Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and shifting trade policies weigh heavily on project viability in many regions. In contrast to the muted outlook for advanced economies, emerging markets – particularly in Asia and the Middle East – are positioned as the industry’s key engines of growth.

    For the Middle East and North Africa (Mena), the outlook presents both risks from external shocks and opportunities from the region’s unparalleled pipeline of transformational projects.

    Diverging markets

    Global construction markets are diverging. Advanced economies face structural challenges, with high interest rates depressing housing demand, elevated input costs squeezing contractors and fragile investor sentiment limiting new commitments.

    The residential sector, still the largest globally, will remain a drag, marking its fourth consecutive year of contraction in 2025 with a forecast decline of 0.75%. Emerging markets are set to expand by 3.9% in 2025 compared to just 1.8% for advanced economies. Although this is slower than the 6.6% growth recorded in 2024, it reinforces a structural trend: the centre of construction growth is shifting away from Western economies and towards Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

    One of the biggest near-term uncertainties stems from US trade policy. The Trump administration’s tariffs, set to resume in the third quarter of 2025, threaten to disrupt supply chains and inflate costs. The decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50%, alongside 10%-25% duties on cement and other construction inputs, is already pressuring margins. Reciprocal tariffs are expected from over 60 countries. These measures disproportionately affect construction, given its reliance on globally traded materials. 

    For Mena economies, which import large volumes of steel and cement, the tariff escalation risks higher input costs for projects, although the region’s sovereign-backed financing models and vertically integrated supply chains offer some insulation.

    The global sector mix is shifting. While residential construction continues to contract, commercial construction is forecast to rebound, posting 2.5% growth in 2025 after a 1.1% fall in 2024. Energy and utilities remain the fastest-growing segment, albeit at a slower 5.1% pace in 2025 compared to 8.7% in 2024. The energy transition continues to drive demand for renewable power plants, transmission infrastructure and storage capacity.

    Yet, policy shifts in Washington – particularly the rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act’s incentives – have cooled investor momentum in the US. This has created an opening for regions such as the Gulf, where national visions place decarbonisation and energy diversification at the centre of long-term strategies.

    Regional expansion

    Against this backdrop, the Mena region is expected to expand by 4.9% in 2025, outpacing the global average and positioning itself as one of the world’s most attractive construction markets.

    Saudi Arabia continues to deliver gigaprojects such as Neom, Diriyah Gate and the Red Sea Project, alongside infrastructure linked to Fifa World Cup 2034. These schemes are not only boosting construction output, but also building domestic supply chain capacity.

    The UAE is pressing ahead with large-scale urban development, transport and clean energy projects. Dubai and Abu Dhabi have placed diversification at the centre of their agendas, with Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park and the Barakah nuclear power plant symbolising their pivot towards sustainable growth.

    Egypt, despite macroeconomic challenges, is allocating resources to residential, transport and utilities projects in an effort to sustain employment and absorb demographic pressures.

    Elsewhere in the Gulf and North Africa, regional governments from Oman to Morocco are aligning construction activity with diversification and decarbonisation agendas, with Morocco’s preparations for the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations and Fifa World Cup 2030 providing an additional catalyst.

    Contractor strategies

    For Middle Eastern contractors and investors, the global picture has several implications. The region is relatively insulated from the global housing downturn given its emphasis on commercial, industrial and infrastructure-led growth.

    Rising input costs remain a concern, particularly as tariff-driven inflation filters through to project budgets. Long-term procurement contracts and regional steel production capacity will be critical in mitigating these risks. At the same time, the slowdown in Western renewable investment momentum has created an opportunity for Gulf states to capture a larger share of global capital flows seeking stable, policy-backed projects.

    Geopolitical risk remains a permanent variable. The flare-up in June between Israel, the US and Iran underscored how quickly regional tensions can resurface, reminding investors that large-scale project financing and execution remain vulnerable to sudden shocks even as governments push forward with diversification plans.

    Looking further ahead to 2029, forecasts by GlobalData suggest that global construction will average moderate but steady growth, with emerging markets continuing to narrow the gap with advanced economies.

    For the Middle East, the outlook is more robust, anchored by long-term national visions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman and Egypt, and reinforced by large-scale energy transition investments. Global sporting and tourism events are adding additional impetus to infrastructure demand.

    While challenges around financing, cost escalation and geopolitical risk will persist, the region’s sovereign-backed model and extensive project pipeline suggest that the Mena region will be a growth leader through to 2029.

    READ MORE: Region remains top of construction momentum index

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14503148/main.gif