Middle East equities weather the storm
30 May 2024
The combined value of the MEED Top 100 largest listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region dipped slightly to $3.7tn over the past year – from $3.8tn in 2023 – as rising regional geopolitical risk lent greater caution to international investment in emerging markets.
The past year has also seen several sector-by-sector trends, including downward pressure on the valuation of many companies in the oil and gas sector – Saudi Aramco included – amid weakening oil prices and mandatory production cuts. In the banking sector, on the other hand, many valuations have improved amid higher interest rate spreads and rising project activity.
Overall sentiment in Mena capital markets remains generally positive, with a strong showing of initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past 12 months, many of which were oversubscribed, and with several more major listings to come. In Saudi Arabia, Fakeeh Care Group is in the process of concluding what is expected to be the largest Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) IPO of 2024 after a booking period that was 119 times oversubscribed.
New listings
This year’s MEED Top 100 ranking includes five newly listed entries worth a combined $36bn, including two listings on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange – Adnoc Logistic & Services and Pure Health – and three listings on the Tadawul: Ades Holding Company, MBC Group and Saudi Logistics Services.
Ades Holding raised the highest listing proceeds for the year, at $1.2bn, followed by Pure Health at $987m and Saudi Logistics Services at $678m. Pure Health also experienced the highest first-day gain, with its share price rising by 76% from the time of listing to close of business.
Overall, the Mena region hosted 48 IPOs in 2023, raising a total of $10.7bn, according to consultancy EY, with the activity concentrated in the GCC and Egypt. This was a 6% decrease in the number of IPOs and a 51% drop in proceeds compared to 2022.
In Q1 2024, there were 10 IPOs valued at $1.2bn, with nine listings from Saudi Arabia, according to EY. As of 9 May, there were a further 25 companies and 10 funds with plans to list by the end of the year, led by prospects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. This forward-looking pipeline is again dominated by Saudi Arabia, where 21 companies have announced IPOs.
Top sectors
The ranking remains heavily weighted towards the oil and gas sector due to the size of Saudi Aramco, but the overall share of the sector on the list has declined slightly – from making up 61.3% of the total value in 2023 to representing 58.4% in this year’s list.
Saudi Aramco itself has dipped in value from $2.1tn to about $1.95tn – making it a key contributor to the fall in the overall value of the list.
The next largest sector is banking, which accounts for 15.5% of the value on the list, up from 15% in 2023. Below this is the value represented by cross-sector holding companies, led by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, with its market capitalisation of $236bn.
The utilities sector has increased its value share to 6.6%, up from 5.2%, driven by the rise of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, the market capitalisation of which has tripled from about $30bn to more than $90bn, putting the firm in third place in the MEED Top 100.
It is unclear what the drivers of this activity are, since Acwa Power’s price-to-sales ratio remains modest. One possibility is that investors expect its revenue performance to improve significantly amid the firm’s onboarding of new assets and projects in the kingdom. The company has long since risen to be the biggest power developer in the region in terms of power generation asset equity.
The property sector has also met with modest success amid rising real estate prices, with developers on the list adding $18bn in value and raising the share of the property sector on the list from 1% to 1.5%.
The telecommunications sector meanwhile appears to have fallen out of favour, with the same set of listed companies on the list shedding $33bn in combined market capitalisation value and causing the share of the sector within the ranking to fall from 4.5% to 3.8%.
Overall, the stability of the MEED Top 100 list around the $3.7tn-$3.8tn mark over the past three years is a sign of the increasing maturity of the Mena capital markets amid a spree of IPOs and growing diversity among the listed companies and funds. It bodes well that even in this time of considerable geopolitical insecurity, the region’s top stocks have not given significant ground.
Exclusive from Meed
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Bahrain receives solar IPP consultancy bids
4 April 2025
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First Siemens Energy turbine reaches Qassim 2
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Saudi Arabia launches Landbridge design tender
4 April 2025
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Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons
4 April 2025
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The construction of solar power plants supports Bahrain’s 2060 net-zero carbon emissions target.
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First Siemens Energy turbine reaches Qassim 2
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The first combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) has arrived at the Qasssim 2 independent power producer (IPP) project site in Saudi Arabia.
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The first and the next two turbines to power the Qassim 2 CCGT plant are understood to be made in Saudi Arabia, EDF Renewables Middle East said in a social media post.
Germany's Siemens Energy confirmed winning the contract, worth a total of $1.5bn, to supply gas turbines and other equipment to the Qassim 2, as well as another CCGT plant, Taiba 2, in June 2024.
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Photo credit: EDF Renewables Middle East
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Tadweer and Tribe seek nod for $1.5bn Australia project
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Cepa objectives
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Saudi Arabia launches Landbridge design tender
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Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons
4 April 2025
This package also includes: Beaches and luxury drive regional tourism
Despite a somewhat lackluster 2024 performance in the region for hospitality-linked project award activity, Middle East and North Africa (Mena) contractors are eyeing more than $60bn in projects in design and bid that are set to proceed to market in the near future.
Last year, project awards in the Mena region’s hospitality-linked construction segment declined slightly to $6.2bn, falling below the contract award values in both 2022 and 2023, while remaining above that of the three preceding years and the average for the past five years.
Also positively, the awards value for 2024 was commensurate with the value of projects in the bidding phase this time last year, when $1.3bn-worth of projects had been awarded and $5.2bn-worth of projects were in the bidding phase. This indicates that projects in the segment are delivering and not stalling.
Top projects
Saudi Arabia dominated the overall project activity in the segment with a total contract award value of $4.4bn. This was followed by the UAE at $1bn and a handful of other countries with a combined $700m in value – making for a significantly skewed project activity landscape.
The largest single project to be awarded was the $762m Keturah Creekside Resort, a Ritz-Carlton Residences scheme in Dubai that is being developed by the local Mag Property Development. The main contract was awarded to Cecep Techand Middle East, a Dubai-based contracting subsidiary of a Chinese state-owned enterprise that is generally better known for its involvement in utility projects.
The next largest award was for the $508m Six Senses Falcon’s Nest Hotel in the Wadi Safar area of Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah gigaproject. This contract was awarded by Diriyah Company to a joint venture (JV) of Qatar’s UCC Holding and local construction group Al-Bawani.
Diriyah Company also let the contracts for four other hotels at Wadi Safar – Aman, Chedi, Faena and Oberoi-branded properties worth a combined $826m – to the same JV.
Three further Diriyah projects worth a combined $519m were awarded for the building of a Capella hotel, a Raffles hotel and a Ritz-Carlton Residences to a variety of other contractors.
Significant gigaproject-linked contract awards were also made on the Amaala development within Red Sea Global’s project portfolio, and for a hotel complex at Qiddiya, the Riyadh-adjacent entertainment city.
The largest contract awarded in a third country was a $125m Avani-Tivoli hotel and residences project in Bahrain let to local contractor Cebarco by Bahrain Real Estate Investment Company (Edamah) as part of the Bilaj Al-Jazayer development.
Project pipeline
Looking ahead in 2025, there are $8.6bn-worth of projects in the bidding phase, with $3.9bn at the prequalification stage, $2.2bn in bid submission and $2.5bn in bid evaluation. If all of this value is awarded as expected, alongside the $410m in awards so far this year, then 2025 could turn out to be the best year for hotel project activity since 2015.
There is also a much larger groundswell of projects in the design phase. This time last year, the value of projects in design was $15bn, but that value has swollen by 270% to $56bn in the past 12 months, led by Egypt’s launch of South Med, a 2,300-hectare tourism masterplan valued at $21bn.
Launched by Talaat Moustafa Group, the South Med project is situated 165 kilometres (km) to the west of Alexandria on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coastline and 60km east of Ras El-Hekma, an area earmarked for development by Abu Dhabi following a $24bn deal for the land rights.
Between the two masterplans, Egypt’s northern coast promises to generate a significant amount of construction work in the years to come, and developments in the area are also accelerating as the stretch of coastline grows in significance as a source of interest for investors. Local developer Sodic, which in 2021 become a subsidiary of UAE developer Aldar, launched its own plans in September to deliver a $500m Nobu hotel and residences complex just east of the Ras El-Hekma area.
In Saudi Arabia, which accounts for $41.6bn or 50% of the hospitality project pipeline in the Mena region – including $24.4bn-worth of projects in design – the pending work is led in value terms by the $7bn in-design second phase of the Red Sea Project. There are also four packages of work worth a combined $3bn in design for the towers and podiums of the Mukaab project – the cubic centrepiece of the New Murabba development in Riyadh. Meanwhile, a further $3.8bn of projects are in design or bid – split $1.8bn and $2bn, respectively – at the Rua Al-Madinah development.
The next-largest areas of pending hospitality projects in the region are in the UAE and Oman. The UAE’s pipeline is led by Emaar’s $1.5bn Dubai Creek Harbour Tower and a $1.3bn JW Marriott Resort & Residences planned by private developer Wow Resorts for Al-Marjan Island in Ras Al-Khaimah. In Oman, the projects are led by the $500m third phase of the tourism ministry’s Yenkit Hills development and a $500m Trump resort being developed by Omran, the UAE’s Dar Al-Arkan and the US’ Trump Organisation.
If even a small fraction of the $56bn of hospitality-linked projects in the design phase in the region proceeds to execution in 2025, it could swell the awards total to record levels. After a somewhat sluggish performance in Q1, awards activity could pick up markedly from Q2 onwards, given the $2.5bn in projects that are already in bid evaluation and are set for imminent award.
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