meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Iraq economic revival faces headwinds

10 May 2024

 

The ambitious new $17bn Iraq Development Road project, linking Basra to Turkiye’s Mersin port, puts the country’s economic trajectory on a long-term geopolitical setting that will aim to take full advantage of Iraq’s position as a key link in trade routes between Asia and the Mediterranean.

But before this vaunted plan takes root, Prime Minister Shia Al Sudani’s government faces a host of knotty economic challenges, not least a challenging fiscal position aggravated by the expansionary budget announced in 2023.

Lack of parliamentary consent has largely insulated the country from the negative impacts of that $153bn budget. That has meant large amounts of planned state spending have not been disbursed, leaving the state finances in better shape than they would have been otherwise.

Fitch Ratings expects that low execution of capital spending and limited transfers to the Kurdistan region will help limit the size of the deficit.

“We expect growth to rebound in 2024 (1.2%), driven by public spending under the expansionary three-year budget and continued recovery in non-oil GDP. We expect non-oil growth to benefit from stronger private consumption, as inflation edges down,” says Mohamed Afifi, Fitch Ratings’ primary analyst for Iraq.

Budget deficit

Even so, reduced oil revenues have impacted Iraq’s economy, turning a budget surplus of 10.8% of GDP in 2022 into a deficit of 1.9% of GDP in 2023. Fitch sees the fiscal deficit widening, reaching 3.7% in 2024 as declining oil prices and Opec-imposed production cuts drive oil revenue down, while a heavier wage bill pushes expenditure.

The government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is also likely to rise in 2024-25, from 43.4% in 2023 to 48.7%, with Fitch attributing this to larger budget deficits that will be funded from borrowing and deposit drawdowns. However, these figures include some $40bn of legacy debt that Iraq faces no pressure to service.

The big concern is that the 2023-25 budget programme will add hundreds of thousands of workers to an already bloated public sector payroll, crowding out the private sector.

“We estimate that the expansionary three-year budget will hinder the private sector’s development by providing a sharp increase in the public workforce,” says Afifi.

“We estimate that the budget will add 600,000 employees, most of which are currently working under temporary contracts, to the public sector payroll. This would bring the public sector wage bill (salaries and pensions) to 25.8% of GDP by 2025, from 15% in 2022.”

As the IMF warned in a March 2024 commentary, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labour force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base.

In this context, urged the Fund, the Iraqi authorities should seek to enable private sector development, including through labour market reforms, modernisation of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.    

That is a hefty checklist for a country that is still facing myriad security, political and developmental challenges.

Al Sudani can at least counter the gloomier prognoses with the revival in non-oil sector growth, and lower inflation. Real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6% in 2023. Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation, according to the IMF.

International reserves increased to $112bn in 2023. Fitch sees FX reserves providing payment coverage above 12 months and a substantial financial buffer until the end of 2025.

Other positives will come through increased foreign direct investment, notably from the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund allocated $3bn for Iraqi investments last year, while Qatar’s Estithmar signed a series of memorandums of understanding worth $7bn in June 2023, covering hotel, real estate and healthcare projects.

Banking reform

One area of focus for the government is its banking sector, which remains underdeveloped and largely unfit for purpose, dominated by state-owned banks with opaque finances.

As Aysegul Ozgur, head of research at Iraq-focused Rabee Securities, says, 93.7% of currency issued was outside banks in Iraq at the end of 2022.

But, says Ozgur, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is looking to strengthen financial inclusion and increase the cash inside the financial system through a series of projects.

“The salary domiciliation project of 2017 is the most prominent one among them, aiming for public sector employees to transfer their salaries to bank accounts by enabling them to receive and withdraw salaries easily through available payment channels (bank branches, ATMs and POS) and providing the ability to obtain credit facilities and bank loans by showing their salaries as collateral,” she says.

A number of other developments underscore the CBI’s concerted efforts to modernise Iraq’s financial landscape and promote economic stability.

“As a measure to control the FX flow into the banking system, the CBI now allows a limited number of banks to participate in the CBI foreign currency window and engage in US dollar transactions,” says Ozgur. “Due to the restricted number of banks permitted to engage in such activities, they benefit from an expanded market share in US dollar transactions.”

The Central Bank has also moved towards tougher oversight of the country’s 61 commercial banking institutions, made up of 54 private banks and seven state banks.

Since the CBI revised the guidelines for foreign currency transactions across borders to curb illicit financial flows in February 2023, says Ozgur, the banks that have direct correspondent banking relationships have played an active role in international money transfers and increased their commission and FX income significantly.

“The outstanding growth in current account deposits with these transfers resulted in significant growth in assets. Bank of Baghdad, National Bank of Iraq and Al-Mansour Bank are among the banks benefiting the most from these developments due to having direct correspondent banking relationships,” says Ozgur.

In February 2024, eight local commercial banks were banned from engaging in US dollar transactions, in a move to reduce fraud, money laundering and other illegal uses of the greenback. This followed a visit to Baghdad by a senior US Treasury official to Baghdad.

Such moves should, over time, help restore confidence in the financial system and – crucially – help build local insinuations that are credible players in the local economy, able to facilitate Iraq’s private sector growth ambitions, whether domestically or as part of the Iraq Development Road projects.

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11760747/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Firms prepare Hudayriat East PPP tunnels advisory bids

    25 June 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi’s Modon Infrastructure, formerly Gridora, has tendered a contract for technical advisory services for the construction of two underwater tunnels connecting the eastern side of Hudayriat Island with mainland Abu Dhabi.

    Consultants have until 26 June to submit their proposals.

    The project includes the construction of a 4.8-kilometre (km) highway, with four lanes in each direction, connecting Hudayriat Island to Mussafah 8th Street.

    The project will be delivered on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis in coordination with the Abu Dhabi Department of Municipalities and Transport and the Abu Dhabi Investment Office.

    The contract term is expected to be 25 years.

    The latest infrastructure development in Abu Dhabi follows Modon Infrastructure’s invitation in May for firms to register for the next phase of Abu Dhabi’s Mid Island Parkway Project (MIPP), which will also be developed on a PPP basis.

    Modon Infrastructure will act as the lead developer, holding the majority equity stake in the project company. It will award the engineering, procurement and construction contract, as well as the operations and maintenance services and advisory appointments.

    The second phase of the MIPP involves the construction of about 11km of highways, including a mix of three-, four- and five-lane sections. The highways will connect the Um-Yifeenah, Al-Jubail, Al-Sammaliyyah and Sas Al-Nakhl islands to Khalifa City and the E10 road.

    The scope also covers the construction of three interchanges: the E20, E10 and Dumbbell interchanges on Al-Sammaliyyah Island.

    The project includes several major structures, such as the E20 interchange, which will feature cast-in-place box-girder and void-slab bridges, and the E10 interchange with cast-in-place box-girder bridges. It also includes I-girder bridges between Raha Beach West and Sas Al-Nakhl Island, as well as a causeway at Sas Al-Nakhl Island.

    Further key elements include a cast-in-place balanced cantilever bridge between Sas Al-Nakhl Island and Al-Sammaliyyah Island; a tunnel between Al-Sammaliyyah Island and Bilrimaid Island; and a cut-and-cover (open) tunnel on Bilrimaid Island. The project will be completed with another tunnel connecting Bilrimaid Island to Um-Yifeenah Island.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17410214/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Algeria tenders upstream oil project contract

    25 June 2026

    Algeria’s state-owned national oil and gas company, Sonatrach, has tendered a contract for the development and rehabilitation of the central processing facility (CPF) at the Bir Berkine oil and gas field.

    The scope of the contract includes the study, supply, construction and commissioning of a project to rehabilitate the CPF facilities at the field, which is located in the Hassi Mesaoud region.

    Sonatrach says in the tender documents that the objective of the project is to ensure the continuity of production activities “under stable and secure operating conditions”.

    It also says the project aims to improve production yields and quality.

    The contract includes both initial and detailed studies as well as the supply of all equipment and materials.

    It also includes the execution of works, the assembly of all equipment and materials, and the commissioning of all relevant facilities.

    The tender has a two-stage submission process, with the first stage requiring technical bids to be submitted by 23 August.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17423013/main3916.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Red Sea Global tenders King Salman Bay construction work

    25 June 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Red Sea Global (RSG) has tendered a contract inviting firms to undertake marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay on the Red Sea coast, north of Jeddah.

    The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres.

    The bid submission deadline is 31 July.

    King Salman Bay is expected to be a waterfront development aimed at reshaping the city’s northern Red Sea frontage into a mixed-use destination, anchored by public-realm improvements and leisure-led development.

    The update follows RSG’s award of an estimated SR100m ($27m) contract to construct a solid waste management centre at its Red Sea Project. The scope includes four buildings: a material recycling facility, a transfer station, an administration building and a vehicle maintenance building.

    In October last year, MEED reported that RSG had secured a SR6.5bn ($1.7bn) credit facility to further develop Amaala, its luxury tourism destination on Saudi Arabia’s northwestern Red Sea coast.

    According to an official statement, “The funding is led by Riyad Bank as the sole underwriter, along with Saudi Investment Bank and Bank Al-Bilad as mandated lead arrangers.

    “The loan arrangement comprises a mix of conventional and Islamic financing and adheres to RSG’s Green Loan Framework, which was first established when it secured private funding from a consortium of four banks for the Red Sea destination in 2021,” the statement added.

    The announcement followed RSG’s opening of its first properties for sale at Amaala, including branded residential communities and a five-bedroom villa on a private island.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17430045/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • MECC submits lowest bid on three Kuwaiti oil and gas contracts

    25 June 2026

     

    Kuwait-based Mechanical Engineering & Contracting Company (MECC) has submitted the lowest bid across three separate contracts tendered by the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    The total value of the low bids is $427m, and all of the contracts are focused on developing substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds

    Five companies submitted bids for a contract to develop several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 6, 10 and 12 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD65,760,000 ($212m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD70,630,000 ($228m)
    • Amco Engineering & Construction: KD73,446,100 ($237m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD76,186,000 ($246m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD79,332,417 ($256m)

    Six companies submitted bids for a contract to develop several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 8 and 13 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD30,760,000 ($99m)
    • Badr Al-Mulla & Brothers: KD32,662,040 ($106m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD34,139,000 ($110m)
    • Industrial Company for Electrical Projects: KD36,375,520 ($118m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD37,278,526 ($120m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD37,790,000 ($122m)

    Eight companies submitted bids for a contract focused on developing several substations to power industrial lift pumps and remote header manifolds in areas 7, 9, and 11 in southern and eastern Kuwait.

    The bidders were:

    • MECC: KD35,760,000 ($116m)
    • Badr Al-Mulla & Brothers: KD39,447,165 ($127m)
    • Amco Engineering & Construction: KD39,736,800 ($128m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company: KD40,105,000 ($130m)
    • Industrial Company for Electrical Projects: KD43,238,265 ($140m)
    • Engineering Company for Petroleum & Chemical Industries (Enppi): KD43,514,805 ($141m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company: KD43,650,000 ($141m)
    • Nasser Mohammed Al-Badah & Partner General Trading & Contracting: KD43,706,826 ($141m)

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been in crisis in recent months due to disruption from the regional conflict that started after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026.

    A preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran, which was announced on 14 June, has increased optimism that disruption to the sector will decrease in the coming weeks.

    Under the terms of the agreement, both sides have stated that the free flow of vessels will be permitted through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly all of Kuwait’s crude oil is normally exported.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17423009/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Chinese firm wins $265m Saudi hospital contract

    24 June 2026

    Zhejiang Construction International, the local subsidiary of Chinese contractor Zhejiang Construction Investment Group, has won a $265m contract to build the Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University Speciality Hospital in Al-Khobar.

    Construction is expected to take three years from the start date.

    Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University awarded the contract.

    Located in Al-Raja district, Al-Khobar, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, the hospital project will cover about 60,000 square metres.

    The contract covers the construction of a 10-storey hospital building, two five-storey auxiliary buildings connected by corridors and a basement.

    Work will include civil works, mechanical and electrical installation, curtain walling, landscaping, detailed design and the procurement of medical equipment.

    The award is the latest in a series of contracts secured by Chinese contractors from Saudi entities in recent months.

    Last week, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipalities & Housing awarded contracts worth more than SR1.9bn ($506m) to Chinese contractors for two residential developments in the kingdom.

    China Architectural Construction Corporation won the first contract, valued at SR875m ($233m), to build 2,010 housing units at the Al-Ruba residential project in Riyadh.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation secured the other contract, valued at more than SR1bn ($266m), for the Al-Rasha Al-Faisaliah residential project in Dammam, comprising 2,426 housing units.

    GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia’s construction industry to record average annual growth of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17412846/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal