meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11755403/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Caution governs Jordanian bank lending

    12 June 2026

     

    In a region where geopolitical turbulence has amplified by an order of magnitude, Jordan is managing to stand out as a beacon of relative stability, with the Hashemite kingdom’s banking sector acting as a case in point.

    Lending has grown in recent years, with credit up by an average 4.9% between 2020 and 2025, according to the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) – a faster rate than average nominal GDP growth of 2.3% over the same period.

    The IMF took care to note an increase in credit to the private sector in its latest Article IV assessment of Jordan, standing at 80.1% of GDP at end-2024, compared to just 66.6% 10 years earlier.

    Banks in the kingdom ended 2025 in a liquid state, but caution remains the watchword for local lenders. The loan-to-deposit relationship bears that out. For that year, deposits ended up 7.1% to JD50bn ($70.5bn), while credit facilities were up just 3.7% to JD36.1bn ($50.9bn).

    Analysts see this as a case of Jordanian banks being prudent, given the tricky operating environment and limited lending opportunities, rather than banks being excessively defensive. 

    According to Christos Theofilou, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, it is cautious lending in fraught macroeconomic conditions.

    “On the one hand, we’ve seen a structurally strong and stable deposit base that has been growing more compared to lending. That indicates a certain degree of limited risk appetite, but also the fact that, given the challenging operating conditions, there were limited business opportunities in the market,” says Theofilou.

    Liquidity banked

    Jordan’s banks look able to withstand further shocks, given solid capital positions and relatively strong earnings performances. Arab Bank, the largest lender, saw net profits grow 12% last year to $1.13bn, despite a highly charged geopolitical situation across Jordan and the neighbouring Palestinian territories.

    As Moody’s notes, Jordanian banks’ funding base remains stable, with banks mainly deposit-funded – with deposits at 67% of total assets as of December 2025 – mostly comprising well-diversified retail deposits. The ratings agency noted that banks retain the capacity to increase lending without relying on more volatile and costly external funding, as indicated by the 72% loan-to-deposit ratio.

    The earnings outlook in Jordan may be better than other banking sectors in the immediate region, but this does not translate into a picture of booming profits going forward.

    “Profits should remain resilient, but we’re not expecting any significant improvement,” says Theofilou. “We have the challenging operating conditions, and the lower interest rates that have come down over the past few years. On the other hand, banks have had lower provisioning in the past 12 to 18 months compared to the period prior to that.”

    Asset quality remains a strong point, despite some weakening over recent years. Moody’s sees non-performing loans (NPLs) falling below 5.5% this year from 5.8% in June 2025.

    However, the continuing Iran conflict and its deleterious regional impacts – including on the West Bank, where about 9% of Jordanian banks’ loans are located – suggest that bank exposures to troubled sectors will require focus.

    Concentration bites

    Another challenge is the banks’ high credit concentration among large corporates, with a noted high exposure to real estate.

    Commercial and residential real estate loans accounted for 17.4% of total credit facilities as of year-end 2024, while residential mortgages accounted for 40.9% of household credit. Regulatory oversight may limit the impacts – the CBJ caps loans for real estate at 20% of local currency customer deposits.

    The real estate exposures are meaningful, but Moody’s views overall concentration risk as more material rather than real estate risk per se.

    “So, on the one hand, Jordanian banks have real estate loans, both commercial and residential, slightly below a fifth of the total credit facilities,” says Theofilou. “Banks also face challenges in quickly disposing of properties, but within the context of a relatively lengthy foreclosure process. On the flipside, we see Jordanian banks having fairly high collateralisation, so they do hold a lot of collateral against the real estate exposures.”

    The CBJ has earned plaudits for its regulatory oversight, with the IMF lauding its strengthening of the Financial Stability Committee, while refocusing its role on macroprudential policies and systemic risks. 

    Jordanian banks’ brisk uptake of digital technologies has also been a positive.

    Last year, digital payment systems in Jordan recorded over 184 million digital transactions, exceeding $38bn in value. The CBJ has introduced an AI regulatory framework for the sector and the authorities are now working to burnish the country’s credentials as a fintech hub, based on a 90% plus internet penetration. 

    In the year ahead, Jordanian banks will be looking to find exposures to new lending opportunities, given the past risk aversion that has prevented them from building stronger growth avenues.

    Projects beckon

    Big new infrastructure projects could yet come to the fore as bankable opportunities for local players. For example, the National Water Carrier Project, costed at $5.8bn and aiming to increase water supply by 40%, is looking to achieve financial close this summer. It is the type of project that could prove significant in helping diversify local lenders’ exposure away from real estate towards infrastructure.

    “If we see a lot of these infrastructure projects requiring financing coming to the market, then we could see a bit of a pickup in lending growth as well,” says Theofilou.

    New lending opportunities will come from large corporates and infrastructure-related lending. Those will play the key role in any significant pickup in credit growth, says the Moody’s analyst, in contrast to the small- and medium-enterprise (SME) sector, which poses a different challenge for banks.

    “The SME segment does represent a potential growth opportunity and it’s supported by policy focus, however its expansion is constrained by the operating environment. The sector is exposed to high overall credit risks, and when conditions are challenging, banks tend to be more cautious in lending to the SME markets,” says Theofilou.

    So long as the regional conflict persists, banks will be inclined more towards caution than exuberance in their lending approaches. And yet that strong and stable inclination may be what serves them best in a notably turbulent year in the Middle East’s recent history.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17204176/main.gif
    James Gavin
  • Oman tenders environmental survey consultancy contract

    12 June 2026

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) has issued a tender seeking consultancy firms to provide environmental and seawater quality surveys under an ad hoc services contract.

    The selected consultants will be appointed for a four-year period and engaged on an as-needed basis to undertake environmental survey work.

    According to the tender notice, the scope of work includes environmental surveys, vertical profiling of seawater quality, seawater sampling and testing, environmental and social baseline studies, and bird and bat surveys.

    Bids are due by 1 July.

    Environmental and seawater studies are typically undertaken during the early development stages of power generation, desalination and other water infrastructure projects.

    Oman’s project pipeline includes a series of large-scale independent power projects (IPPs) scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2031, according to the seven-year plan released by Nama PWP in March.

    Earlier in June, Nama PWP issued a supervisory consultancy tender for the 280MW Marsa solar IPP project in North Al-Batinah Governorate.

    The project is scheduled to enter commercial operation in the first quarter of 2028.

    The company is seeking project management and supervisory consultancy services during the construction, commissioning and testing phases of the project.

    The bid submission deadline is 26 July.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17209109/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Emirates to offer passengers insurance amid travel warnings

    12 June 2026

    Dubai-based airline Emirates is to offer its own insurance product to passengers flying to or through Dubai, as it seeks to reassure travellers deterred by government advisories against travel to the region.

    The airline’s president, Tim Clark, confirmed the move in an interview with the London-based Financial Times. He said Emirates was working with insurance companies to introduce a “reasonably priced” product that would guarantee passengers could get home regardless of whether they returned on Emirates or another carrier.

    The move is designed to address concerns that travellers could become stranded if the conflict were to restart. More than three months after fighting began, several countries continue to maintain no-fly recommendations covering Gulf routes, leaving passengers unable to obtain conventional insurance for trips to or through the region.

    “I think one of the big concerns is that if they get caught overseas and they can’t get back,” Clark said. The group was working with insurance companies “to do the right thing”, he added.

    Emirates has played a leading role in supporting Dubai’s tourism sector since Iran began targeting the UAE with missiles and drones on 28 February.

    In early June, the Department of Economy and Tourism told stakeholders attending its bi-annual City Briefing that the emirate worked closely with airports and aviation partners, including Emirates and FlyDubai, to ensure continued connectivity for travellers.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17206867/main.jpg
  • Conflict to push global growth to post-pandemic low

    12 June 2026

    The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to drag global economic growth to its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic, with Gulf states bearing the heaviest burden of any region, the World Bank Group has warned in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.

    Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, with forecasts downgraded for two-thirds of economies. Economies in the Gulf directly affected by the conflict are expected to see growth collapse from 3.9% in 2025 to nearly zero this year, marking the steepest regional decline.

    The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy markets, with Brent crude prices projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, 36% above 2025 levels, assuming the worst disruptions ease by July. Fertiliser price increases are compounding the pressure, feeding through to food prices and pushing global inflation to an expected 4.0% this year, up from 3.3% in 2025.

    The World Bank says downside risks remain substantial. Should energy supply disruptions prove more severe than currently assumed and be accompanied by significant financial stress, global growth could fall as low as 1.3% in 2026, with inflation climbing to 4.4%.

    The World Bank is making up to $50bn-$60bn immediately available through existing instruments, including $25bn in pre-arranged financing, to support affected countries through social safety nets, fiscal capacity and working capital for businesses. More than 30 countries are actively working with the bank to enhance readiness under the response plan. If the conflict and its economic fallout persist, support could be scaled to $80bn-$100bn over 15 months.

    Despite the severity of the near-term shock, the bank projects a significant Gulf rebound, with growth recovering to around 5% in 2027-28 as trade normalises and reconstruction spending begins.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17204153/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Emaar announces $55bn Dubai project

    12 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Mohammed Alabbar, the founder of Emaar Properties, has released a statement saying that the Dubai-based real estate developer is about to announce a $55bn project in Dubai.

    On his social media channels including Instagram and X, he said: “Emaar is preparing to unveil its most ambitious project yet: a development worth AED200bn (around $55bn), commanding an extraordinary vista that brings together, in a single frame, three of the city’s timeless icons – Burj Khalifa, Burj Al-Arab and Palm Jumeirah – complete with the finest essentials of modern living, in the city of Dubai.”

    Emaar has delivered some of the world’s most ambitious real estate projects, including the world’s tallest tower, the 828-metre-tall Burj Khalifa, and the surrounding Downtown Dubai development.

    Commenting on the new project, Alabbar added: “This is no ordinary new development. It is a landmark that takes its place in the legacy of the United Arab Emirates, writing a new chapter in the story of a nation that knows no limits to its ambition.”

    In a statement on the Dubai Financial Market on 11 June, Emaar Properties said it “stands on the threshold of a historic announcement” and revealed more details about the project. It said it will have a total development value of AED200bn, with a gross floor area exceeding 4.5 million square metres.

    It added that it will include a mix of landmark residential towers, signature villas and mansions, Grade-A commercial offices, world-class retail destinations, luxury hospitality, and civic and cultural amenities. Altogether, the development will accommodate a projected population of nearly 150,000 residents. The statement also said the development will be connected to proposed metro lines.

    The exact location of the development was not revealed. Emaar has announced major projects in the past without giving precise locations. In June 2023, it announced the $20bn Oasis project. At the time, the details on the site’s location indicated it was situated in a prime location in Dubai, surrounded by high-end developments and within proximity to four international golf courses. It was later confirmed that the site sits between Damac Properties’ Lagoons development and Dubai Investment Park.   

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17203921/main5547.gif
    Colin Foreman