meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11755403/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractor wins Dammam airport water infrastructure deal

    1 October 2026

    Saudi Arabia-based Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies has won an SR80m ($21.3m) contract to rehabilitate water and wastewater infrastructure at King Fahd International airport in Dammam in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The contract was awarded by Dammam Airports Company (DACO), and work is scheduled to be completed within 18 months, the firm said in a disclosure to the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) on 29 September.

    The scope covers the design, construction, supply, installation, replacement, rehabilitation and integration of water and wastewater infrastructure.

    It includes pumps, storage tanks and reservoirs, reverse osmosis facilities, piping and tie-ins, as well as electrical and instrumentation works.

    The award comes as DACO advances a wider programme of investment at King Fahd International airport.

    DACO signed more than SR1.2bn ($320m) in agreements in June covering airport infrastructure, including a new power station, a medium-voltage distribution network and upgrades to the existing electrical grid. 

    In September, it also appointed WSP Middle East, the regional arm of Canadian engineering firm WSP, to develop the airport’s expansion under its masterplan.

    The expansion is intended to increase annual passenger capacity to more than 19.3 million by 2030, with a longer-term target of 32 million passengers. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20169118/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait tenders LNG project

    1 October 2026

     

    State-owned Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (Kipic) has tendered a project to develop a reliquefaction unit at the Al-Zour liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal.

    The project focuses on developing a boil-off gas (BOG) unit at the terminal, with bids due on 22 December.

    A meeting for contractors to discuss the project is scheduled for 18 October.

    The project scope includes engineering, procurement and construction works, along with pre-commissioning, commissioning and performance testing services.

    The list of prequalified companies is:

    • Fluor (US)
    • GS Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
    • Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
    • Sinopec Engineering (China)
    • JGC Holdings (Japan)
    • KBR (US)
    • China National Petroleum Corporation (China)
    • Technip (France)

    A BOG unit at an LNG facility captures, compresses and processes natural gas vapours that evaporate from cryogenic storage tanks, enabling the gas to be recycled back into the system rather than flared.

    In April, MEED revealed that contractors expected the project to be worth about $200m.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20168625/main2005.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Riyadh approaches contractors for 2km tower

    1 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has reached out to contractors as part of a market-sounding exercise for the construction of the proposed 2-kilometre megatall tower project.

    MEED understands that a PIF subsidiary, the Tower District Real Estate Development Company, is undertaking the process.

    It is understood that several experienced international contractors, as well as some prominent local contractors, have been approached.

    The latest development follows PIF receiving offers in June last year from firms seeking a contract to provide project management consultancy (PMC) services for a new central business district (CBD) on the outskirts of Riyadh, which includes the proposed 2km tower.

    The PMC role covers both the tower and the surrounding district.

    Firms understood to have been invited to bid include US-based Aecom, Jacobs, Parsons and Turner, as well as the UK’s Mace.

    UK-based Foster & Partners is working as the architect for the tower after winning a design competition launched in late 2022.

    Record breaker

    The proposed tower would be more than double the height of the world’s tallest building, Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, which stands 828 metres tall. It is expected to be at least several hundred metres taller than the 1,000-metre-plus tower under construction in Jeddah.

    Contractors that have priced megatall towers in the region say a 2km-tall structure could cost about $5bn to construct, depending on the final design.

    The 2km tower and the surrounding CBD – known as Project Rise – sit within a larger masterplanned development to the north of Riyadh called the North Pole.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20156496/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Singapore’s Temasek plans Middle East expansion

    1 October 2026

    Singapore’s Temasek plans to open offices in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi early next year as it targets investment and partnership opportunities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and the wider region.

    The state-owned investor had a net portfolio value of S$518bn ($401bn) as of 31 March 2026.

    It said the new offices will serve as regional hubs for Temasek and its portfolio companies, with some businesses expected to co-locate to work more closely with partners and pursue deals alongside the group. The openings are subject to regulatory approvals.

    Temasek said it will also step up engagement with institutions in Qatar, although it has not announced plans to establish an office there.

    The company said the expansion reflects its confidence in the region’s long-term fundamentals and the economic transformation being driven by national diversification programmes.

    It added that a presence in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will also support investment activity beyond the region by improving access to opportunities across the wider Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

    Several Temasek-owned or Temasek-backed companies are already active in the GCC, providing a platform for the group’s planned expansion.

    These include Singapore-headquartered engineering and consultancy firm Surbana Jurong, which has been involved in masterplanning and advisory work on major regional developments, alongside other portfolio companies with interests spanning infrastructure, logistics, financial services and technology.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in Saudi Arabia, including King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah, Jeddah Islamic Port, Red Sea Global’s Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway’s North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also worked on projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Urban Loop, Musaffah Innovation District masterplan, Etihad Rail’s high-speed rail programme and Abu Dhabi airport’s Midfield Terminal.

    Surbana Jurong has also secured masterplanning contracts from Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20157511/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar and Arada to pursue Abu Dhabi projects

    1 October 2026

    UAE-based developers Aldar Properties and Arada have signed a partnership agreement targeting about AED15bn ($4bn) in development opportunities on Yas Island and in Abu Dhabi’s Seih Sdeirah.

    The deal includes a masterplan joint venture to develop a mixed-use community at Seih Sdeirah, on the Abu Dhabi-Dubai border, and Arada’s purchase of three residential plots on Yas Island from Aldar.

    The Seih Sdeirah project will cover up to 1.5 million square metres (sq m) and will include villas, townhouses, and retail and leisure facilities.

    Arada will lead development and construction management, while both firms will jointly brand and market the community.

    On Yas Island, Arada has bought two canal-facing plots totalling more than 27,500 sq m, with nearly 130,000 sq m of gross floor area, as well as a third residential plot.

    Aldar said the companies will explore further collaboration across sectors and locations in the UAE.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20156829/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal