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Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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Dominic Dudley

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    1 September 2026

     

    National oil companies (NOCs) in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region are accelerating investment in gas processing and associated downstream infrastructure as demand rises and governments prioritise lower-carbon energy growth.

    Rising regional gas consumption is being driven by rapid population growth, greater household electrification, expanding industrial bases and demand from gas-intensive downstream segments such as petrochemicals, fertilisers and metals. 

    Power generation and water desalination are also key sources of demand, while new industrial zones are adding further baseload requirements.

    The push is not only about producing more gas, but also about treating it. As fields mature, a larger share of supply is sour, tight or associated gas that requires more complex processing, sulphur recovery and liquids handling.

    At the same time, NOCs are targeting higher-value outputs such as ethane, liquefied petroleum gas and condensates, to feed chemicals and export markets. 

    This makes fractionation and the recovery of natural gas liquids (NGL) central to project economics. Emissions constraints further elevate the importance of efficient plants, flare reduction schemes and integrated gas-gathering networks.

    Investment accelerates

    The multibillion-dollar projects planned and under way in the region illustrate the scale of investment flowing into gas processing infrastructure. 

    Saudi Aramco is advancing gas and liquids infrastructure linked to its $100bn Jafurah unconventional gas development, in addition to expansions to strengthen the kingdom’s Master Gas System transmission network.

    In the UAE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) continues to expand sour gas processing and downstream-
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    QatarEnergy, already a global leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG), is expanding upstream gas handling, condensate and NGL infrastructure as part of its North Field expansion programme. The programme will also increase feedstock supplies for local industry. 

    In Oman, majority state-owned Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) and its partners are similarly focused on gas processing, compression and network upgrades to sustain supplies to power generation, industrial users and LNG.


    Saudi Aramco is expanding gas-processing and NGL infrastructure as domestic demand grows

    Leading spender

    The Mena region has seen significant spending on gas processing projects so far in 2026, with year-to-date capital expenditure (capex) exceeding levels recorded in any year since at least 2015.

    Adnoc Gas, the natural gas processing business of Adnoc Group, has been the biggest spender this year, following final investment decisions (FIDs) on the second and third phases of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme, worth a total of $8.2bn. The FIDs are part of the company’s previously committed $28bn capex budget for 2026-30.

    The second phase of the RGD programme relates to the construction of a new gas processing train at the Habshan gas processing complex, while the third phase covers an NGL fractionation train at the Ruwais gas processing facility.

    In its Q2 2026 financial results, Adnoc Gas said China-based Wison Engineering had secured the $3.9bn EPC contract for phase two of the RGD, while Italian contractor Tecnimont was selected for the $4.3bn phase three contract.

    Wison Engineering said the EPC contract for RGD phase two is the largest in its history. The Hong Kong-listed company said the $3.9bn EPC contract, together with an associated 220kV switch station, brings the total contract value to approximately $4.04bn. The scope includes gas pipelines, separation and condensate stabilisation units, acid gas removal units and core deep NGL recovery units, as well as the switch station.

    Tecnimont’s parent company, Maire, said its scope of work on the RGD phase three project includes EPC activities for the fifth NGL fractionation unit, which will separate the various hydrocarbon components, in addition to treatment and sweetening systems to remove impurities and ensure product quality.

    The contract scope also includes a regeneration gas treatment unit, a propane refrigeration system, ancillary systems and storage facilities. Once completed in 2030, the plant will have an output capacity of 23,000 tonnes a day, or about
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    Adnoc Gas also reiterated its $5bn capex for the first phase of the RGD scheme, which is under construction. The company awarded $5bn in engineering, procurement and construction management contracts in three tranches for phase one of the RGD in June 2025, marking its largest-ever capital investment in a single project.

    Across all three phases, Adnoc Gas has made a total investment of $13.2bn in the RGD programme.

    Capacity expansion

    Saudi Aramco spent $7.7bn on EPC contract awards on the Fadhili gas processing plant expansion in 2024. The project is set to increase the Fadhili gas plant’s processing capacity from 2.5 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) to up to 4 billion cf/d through the addition of three processing trains, each with a capacity of 500 million cf/d.

    Following its significant capex on the Fadhili expansion, the Saudi energy giant is moving ahead with contract awards this year for various EPC packages under a wider project to boost gas compression capacity at the Shedgum and Uthmaniyah processing plants in the Eastern Province.

    The two plants currently receive about 870 million cf/d and 1.2 billion cf/d of Khuff raw gas, respectively. Through the multibillion-dollar project, Aramco aims to increase their compression and processing capacity and build new pipelines to improve gas transportation.

    Aramco has divided the scope of work on the Shedgum and Uthmaniyah gas compression project into nine EPC packages. It awarded the Uthmaniyah gas compression plant package to locally based Saipem Nasser Saeed Al-Hajri Contracting Company (SNSH), a joint venture of Italian contractor Saipem and local contractor Nasser Saeed Al-Hajri & Partners Company for Contracting.

    The SNSH contract is estimated at $1.24bn, with EPC works on the package scheduled to start in August. Separately, Milan-headquartered Saipem said its share of the contract is worth €900m ($1.04bn), with the EPC works scheduled to run for 42 months.

    Earlier this year, Aramco also awarded the package related to early works and site preparation to local firm Al-Shalawi International Company Trading & Contracting.

    The Shedgum and Uthmaniyah gas compression project will support Aramco’s target of increasing gas production and processing capacity by 80% by 2030, from a 2021 baseline.

    In Oman, PDO also moved ahead this year with a project to expand the Birba gas station in Dhofar Governorate. Known as the Budour-Northeast Birba integrated project, it will add units to enable the station to process additional volumes of sour gas.

    PDO awarded the EPC works on the project to Egypt’s Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi), with the contract valued at $355m.

    Future pipeline

    Looking ahead, the Mena region has a gas processing pipeline worth at least $10.5bn, with planned projects in Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya and Algeria at various stages of development.

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    Adnoc Gas is expected to re-emerge as a top spender on gas processing when it takes a FID on its estimated $8bn Bab gas cap development project.

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    Adnoc Gas has divided the EPC scope on the Bab gas cap development project into four main packages, which are in different stages of tendering.

    Regional gas processing capex is likely to remain robust through the remainder of the decade as NOCs seek to meet growing domestic demand, support industrial development and improve the efficiency of their gas networks.

    Further awards are expected for gas treatment trains, sulphur units, NGL recovery, gas compression and pipeline infrastructure, particularly where projects support petrochemical integration, reduce flaring and increase domestic gas supplies.

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  • Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

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    Nuclear energy is becoming an increasingly important part of long-term energy planning in the GCC as governments seek to diversify power generation, strengthen energy security and meet decarbonisation targets.

    The signing of a civil nuclear cooperation deal between Saudi Arabia and the US in July marked the most significant development in the kingdom’s nuclear programme for several years, providing a framework for bilateral cooperation as Riyadh advances preparations for its first commercial nuclear power plant.

    The agreement also comes as the regional power market is setting the stage for a broader nuclear revival. Rapid growth in electricity demand from industry, desalination and digital infrastructure is increasing the need for reliable low-carbon electricity.

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    Nuclear ambitions

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    Riyadh views nuclear power not only as a source of low-carbon electricity, but also as a way to reduce domestic consumption of oil and natural gas while supporting industrial growth and expanding desalination capacity.

    Since then, the programme has evolved to focus initially on the development of two large-scale reactors, while also supporting longer-term plans for SMRs, domestic fuel-cycle development and the regulatory institutions required for a civilian nuclear industry.

    Despite progress being slower than initially envisaged, Saudi Arabia has continued to develop the regulatory, institutional and procurement framework for its nuclear programme, and has established the Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Commission and the Saudi Nuclear Energy Holding Company.

    The US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement is the latest milestone in that process. It follows a joint declaration signed last November and lays the legal foundation for a decades-long, multibillion-dollar partnership between the two countries. 

    According to the US Department of Energy, the agreement will also provide access for US companies to Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy programme and “expand American nuclear technology exports”.

    The deal is part of a broader US effort to regain a stronger position in the global civil nuclear market. An executive order signed by President Donald Trump in May 2025 directed the US government to promote American nuclear exports and expand international nuclear cooperation. The Saudi deal explicitly builds on that policy.

    While the agreement does not determine which company will build Saudi Arabia’s first reactors, it creates a clearer route for US firms to participate in the kingdom’s civilian nuclear programme, subject to the necessary regulatory and congressional approvals.

    Nuclear is set to play an increasingly important role in the GCC’s long-term power projects pipeline

    Flagship project

    Saudi Arabia’s first commercial nuclear power plant is central to the kingdom’s nuclear ambitions. Planned at Khor Duwaiheen on the Gulf coast, the project comprises two 1.4GW reactors and is being advanced by King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy under the Saudi National Atomic Energy Project.

    Technical bids were invited in 2022 and Saudi Arabia has since continued technical and commercial discussions with shortlisted reactor vendors, despite bid deadlines being extended several times. 

    The four nuclear technology providers reported to be pursuing the project are China National Nuclear Corporation, Electricite de France (EDF), Korea Electric Power Corporation and Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom. 

    US nuclear technology company Westinghouse was previously involved in the Duwaiheen project procurement, although it had dropped out of the race by March 2025, according to sources.

    The US nuclear industry’s own revival could help to strengthen its ability to compete in overseas markets. Westinghouse confidentially filed for a US initial public offering in July, highlighting renewed investor interest as Washington seeks to broaden investment in the sector.

    Meanwhile, the Nuclear Energy Agency identifies Saudi Arabia’s procurement process as one of the important unresolved reactor competitions in the international market. About 40% of proposed nuclear projects globally have yet to select a technology supplier, leaving markets such as Saudi Arabia open to major international vendors.

    The scale of the opportunity also extends beyond the reactor contract itself. The planned 2.8GW facility represents only about a sixth of Saudi Arabia’s stated aim of developing 17GW of nuclear capacity by 2040, suggesting the kingdom’s first commercial power plant is likely to be the beginning of a broader programme rather than a standalone project.

    Beyond the reactor

    While the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the reactor will be the programme’s highest-profile award, it is only one element of the wider investment needed to establish a civilian nuclear industry. Nuclear programmes require extensive ecosystems of supporting infrastructure, specialist engineering capabilities, fuel supply, workforce development and regulatory oversight that extends well beyond construction.

    This is illustrated by the UAE’s Barakah programme, which entered commercial operations in September 2024. According to Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (Enec), more than 2,000 UAE firms have secured contracts worth over $6.7bn supporting the construction, operations and maintenance of the Barakah plant.

    Enec says the programme has helped develop a local nuclear supply chain, while the plant’s long-term operation continues to create opportunities in maintenance, spare parts and other services. 

    In July 2025, Enec and Westinghouse signed an agreement to explore fuel supply chain cooperation and the expansion of Westinghouse’s support for operations and maintenance at Barakah.

    Saudi Arabia has also made clear that its ambitions extend beyond large commercial reactors. The kingdom’s long-term strategy includes plans for SMRs, the development of domestic uranium resources and elements of the nuclear fuel cycle.

    Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman has said Saudi Arabia intends to use its domestic uranium resources across the nuclear fuel cycle, including in the production of yellowcake and low-enriched uranium. 

    These plans could significantly broaden the future projects market in the kingdom. In addition to power generation assets, opportunities could emerge in uranium exploration, mining, processing, fuel services, research facilities, specialist manufacturing and long-term operations and maintenance.

    The kingdom’s long-term strategy includes plans for SMRs, the development of domestic uranium resources and elements of the nuclear fuel cycle

    Regional outlook

    Saudi Arabia’s programme forms part of a broader shift towards civilian nuclear energy across the Gulf. 

    The UAE has already demonstrated the region’s ability to develop, finance and operate large-scale nuclear infrastructure through the 5.6GW Barakah nuclear power plant, which now supplies approximately a quarter of the country’s electricity through its four installed units.

    The country’s next nuclear expansion is at an early stage. Additional nuclear capacity of 2.8GW is not expected to be installed until 2039, implying procurement discussions could begin next year.

    The UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation said in February that it is prepared for future capacity additions and is ready to adopt new nuclear technologies, although it had yet to receive a formal proposal for an expansion. Tariff comparisons with the UAE’s growing pipeline of round-the-clock renewables projects are also expected to influence the viability and timing of further nuclear schemes.

    Elsewhere in the region, Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption, as well as for the potential export of surplus. State energy conglomerate Bapco Energies is tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant in the country.

    According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024. Under the plan that is being studied, power produced by a nuclear facility would be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the country, such as Aluminium Bahrain and Bapco Refining, for the clean production of aluminium and refined products.

    Meanwhile, Egypt is making progress with its first commercial nuclear power plant. Construction is under way on the four-unit, 4.8GW El-Dabaa project being developed with Russia’s Rosatom. 

    In July, the reactor pressure vessel was installed at Unit 2 of the plant. The project is expected to begin generating electricity from its first units in 2028. 

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  • Dubai extends deadlines for stormwater drainage projects

    1 September 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has extended bid submission deadlines for three tenders linked to stormwater and sewerage infrastructure projects serving Hind City, Dubailand and surrounding areas.

    The projects (DS-316-C1, TF-24-C1 and TF-25-C1) cover drainage networks for Hind 4, connections to the stormwater network in Dubailand and a stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman.

    The new bid submission deadline is 24 September. Bids were originally due on 10 September.

    The municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department issued the tenders in August. Hind 3 and Hind 4 are two of four zones within Hind City. The Dubai government renamed the Al-Minhad area and surrounding areas as Hind City in 2023. The 83.9-square-kilometre area is served by Emirates Road, Dubai-Al-Ain Road and Jebel Ali-Lehbab Road.

    The DS-316-C1 project covers the construction of sewer and stormwater networks in Hind 4. The stormwater network will include gravity drainage pipelines up to 1,600 millimetres (mm) in diameter, while the sewer network will include pipelines up to 800mm.

    The TF-24-C1 project will connect developers’ areas in Dubailand to the stormwater network. It includes 18 kilometres (km) of stormwater drainage pipelines with diameters of up to 1,800mm and 3.5km of gravity sewer pipelines with diameters of up to 1,000mm.

    The TF-25-C1 project involves the construction of a 9.2km stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman. The trunk line will include gravity drainage pipelines with diameters of up to 2,800mm. It will also serve main roads along its alignment, including sections of the Dubai-Al-Ain Road, and is designed to accommodate stormwater flows from part of Emirates Road.

    The latest tenders follow a series of recent Tasreef package awards by Dubai Municipality.

    In July, MEED reported that local contractor DeTech Contracting had won the estimated $100m TF-15-C1 EPC contract. The municipality has also awarded the TF-15-C2 and DS-204-C1 packages to China State Construction Engineering Corporation and Nael Construction & Contracting.

    The wider Tasreef programme is intended to increase Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700% by 2033 and provide capacity for the emirate’s needs for the next 100 years.

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    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia redirects towards AI

    1 September 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    The groundbreaking by Humain and DataVolt at Oxagon this month signals where Saudi Arabia’s project spending is heading.

    Over the past year, the dominant story has been reprioritisation, following Neom’s loss of the Asian Winter Games and the cancellation of contracts at Trojena and The Line. While the negative headlines have attracted international attention, it is important to remember that spending has not stopped. Instead, it has changed course, and artificial intelligence (AI) and the new economy are increasingly where it is going.

    The old economy still has a role to play. Over the next eight years, Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup will keep the construction market busy. Looking further ahead, however, the longer-term opportunity lies elsewhere. AI and the wider new economy could sustain a pipeline of construction work that outlasts the events – from data centres and their power supply to the industrial and digital infrastructure that surrounds them.

    Saudi Arabia also has a comparative advantage. Aiman Al‑Mudaifer, Neom’s chief executive, said at Leap that the ability to secure power, land and connectivity was becoming critical to the economics of AI computing capacity. The kingdom has cheap energy, coastline, sovereign capital and, at Oxagon, subsea cables linking to Europe and Africa.

    The build-out is gathering pace. Humain, the PIF-owned AI company launched in May 2025, has struck deals with US chipmakers AMD and Nvidia, attracted interest from Aramco and tendered a separate 6GW campus in east Riyadh. The Oxagon campus is planned to reach 1.5GW, with the first 100MW due in 2028. For contractors and consultants, this points to demand for power distribution, substations, cooling and connectivity rather than stadiums and mountain resorts.

    Whether it pays off is far from settled. Data centre economics depend on customers, chips and reliable power, and Saudi Arabia is a late entrant to a crowded field.

    For construction, the transition will be uneven, and some parts of the projects market will feel the redeployment before they feel the benefit. But for a market that has spent a year dealing with the impact of cancelled contracts and project slowdowns, a clearer sense of where the money is going next is a positive sign.

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    Colin Foreman
  • Petrojet signs Jordan gas pipeline contract

    1 September 2026

    Egypt’s Petrojet has signed a new contract to deliver a natural gas pipeline project in Jordan, according to a statement from the company.

    The pipeline network will connect the Al-Muwaqqar Industrial Development Zone, south of Amman, to Jordan’s natural gas network.

    The contract was signed by Saleh Al-Kharabsheh, Jordan’s minister of energy and mineral resources, and Walid Lotfy, the chairman of Petrojet.

    The project covers the engineering, procurement, construction and installation of approximately 22 kilometres of natural gas pipelines, including connection to the Arab Gas Pipeline.

    It also includes developing gas pressure reduction and metering stations, as well as a pig launcher and receiver facility.

    The contract has an 18-month execution period.

    In its statement, Petrojet said the project would further strengthen its international portfolio and demonstrate its engineering, construction and project-execution capabilities across regional and global markets.

    The invitation to bid on the project was issued in June this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19219983/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp