meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11755403/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia battery storage awards provide fresh lift

    24 August 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    The latest battery storage awards provide a welcome injection of investment into Saudi Arabia’s power market, which has seen a sharp slowdown in contract awards this year.

    Saudi Power Procurement Company’s four Group 1 storage service agreements, announced last week, are worth more than $1.16bn and cover 2,000MW of capacity.

    That is significant against the wider market. According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Saudi Arabia recorded $19.7bn in power sector contract awards in the first seven months of 2025, compared with just $2.5bn in new awards in the same period this year.

    The battery energy storage system (bess) awards therefore account for a sizeable share of the activity recorded so far this year and provide a much-needed source of new contracting activity.

    Importantly, this is not a one-off. SPPC issued the request for proposal (RFP) for its second group of bess projects in July, covering six projects with a combined capacity of 3,000MW and 12,000MWh.

    With the Group 1 tender taking around 18 months from RFP to contract award, it is reasonable to expect Group 2 contracts to be signed in 2027.

    At the same time, the awards for six independent renewable plants under Round 7 of Saudi Arabia’s National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP), with a combined capacity of 5,300MW, are also likely to move into next year, with the latest bid deadlines now extending into September.

    Although a substantial pipeline remains in procurement, it is only once these projects move from tender to award and into construction that this pipeline translates into market activity.

    It is important that these tenders continue to progress at the pace established by the early rounds of Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy programme and now also SPPC’s independent storage provider bess scheme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962923/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qatar receives bids for major power grid expansion

    24 August 2026

     

    Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has received bids for several packages under a major power transmission expansion project tendered in April.

    The project covers new substations at multiple voltage levels, as well as the supply and installation of 400kV extra-high-voltage power cables. The overall scheme is estimated to cost $650m.

    It is being tendered as part of Kahramaa’s 2026 procurement plan, which includes 198 tenders with a total estimated value of QR21.4bn ($5.9bn).

    According to sources, bids were submitted for the following packages on 20 August:

    • Substation packages S1 and S2, covering new 132/11kV substations (estimated cost: $200m)
    • Package S3, covering new 66/11kV substations ($50m)
    • Package S4, including a new 400/220/132kV substation, as well as upgrades and modifications to existing 400kV and 220kV substations ($200m)
    • Package S5, covering new 132/11kV substations and upgrades to existing 132kV and 66kV substations ($100m)
    • Cable packages C1 and C2, covering 400kV cables ($100m)

    Kahramaa previously stated that foreign companies not registered in Qatar would be allowed to participate in the bidding, subject to meeting specified conditions, including registration and certification requirements.

    In June, the electricity and water utility awarded contracts worth more than QR2.2bn ($604m) to expand the electricity transmission network in the country’s western region.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works will support the integration of the 2GW Dukhan solar power project into Qatar’s national electricity grid. The scope includes new and upgraded substations, as well as the installation of underground cables and overhead transmission lines.

    Kahramaa said contracts were awarded to local firm Voltage Engineering, Turkiye’s Best & Betas Consortium, India’s Larsen & Toubro and South Korea’s LS Cable.

    Of Kahramaa’s 2026 procurement plan, electricity transmission projects account for QR8.9bn ($2.4bn) and include the construction of new 400/132kV substations in Al-Wukair and Al-Mashaf, as well as the expansion of 400kV substations at Ras Laffan.

    These also cover the installation of 132kV underground cables between Al-Sailiya and Al-Rayyan over a 24-kilometre route, as well as upgrades to the 400kV and 220kV networks.

    Additionally, there are 64 planned electricity distribution projects managed by the Electricity Distribution Department that cover the medium-voltage and low-voltage networks throughout Doha and the regional municipalities. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962223/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Maaden closes $1bn term loan and credit facility

    24 August 2026

    Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) has announced the closing of its inaugural international syndicated term loan and revolving credit facilities, worth a total of $1bn.

    The $500m international term loan facility will support Maaden’s growth agenda and general corporate purposes, including funding growth projects across its portfolio.

    The $500m international revolving credit facility, which is expected to remain undrawn, provides additional committed funding capacity “as Maaden continues to scale its business and execute its long-term growth strategy”.

    The transaction “was met with strong support from the international banking market, attracting participation from a diverse group of leading international banks across key global financial markets”, including the US, Canada, Europe, China and Japan. The facilities were oversubscribed, Maaden said.

    ALSO READ: Maaden and Aramco sign deal to create joint venture

    “The level of demand reflects the global banking community’s confidence in Maaden’s financial strength, strategic direction and ambitious growth plans,” the Saudi state miner said in its statement.

    “The facilities mark another significant milestone in Maaden’s funding journey – further diversifying its sources of funding and broadening its access to global capital providers as the company continues to advance its long-term growth ambitions.

    “Maaden continues to make significant progress across its growth pipeline, expanding production, advancing major projects and accelerating exploration as it builds a world-class mining company at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation.”

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962086/main4516.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai inflation slows to 5.3% in July

    24 August 2026

    Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.3% in July, down from 5.7% in June, as a decline in transport costs eased pressure on consumer prices, according to Emirates NBD.

    The bank said the slowdown supported its view that price growth peaked at mid-year, and it expects inflation to continue easing through the rest of 2026. Monthly price growth slowed to 0.1% in July, from 0.4% in June, the weakest pace since February.

    Transport was the clearest sign of the moderation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 11.9% in July, from 18.1% in June, as transport costs fell 3.7% over the month. Fuel and lubricant inflation eased to 24.1% year on year, from 48.3%, tracking a decline in local petrol prices.

    Petrol remains the main swing factor in the emirate’s inflation. Transport contributed 1.1 percentage points to headline inflation in July, down from 1.7 percentage points in June. Emirates NBD said the relief may prove temporary, with Super 98 petrol prices climbing 5.9% in August to leave them 33.8% higher than a year earlier. The bank expects headline inflation to edge higher in the August figures before easing again later in the year.

    The UAE deregulated petrol and diesel prices in 2015 and reviews them monthly against global prices, meaning changes in global fuel costs pass through to consumers quickly. Transport, which includes fuel, accounts for 9% of Dubai’s consumer price index basket.

    Housing remained the largest contributor to inflation even as its impulse faded. Housing and utilities, which account for about two-fifths of the basket, added 2.8 percentage points to headline inflation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 7.0%, from 7.4% in January.

    Food inflation edged up to 7.8% year on year, from 7.6% in June, which the bank attributed to lingering supply-chain disruption from the regional conflict. Inflation in restaurants and hotels accelerated to 4.5% year on year, from 1.7% in June.

    Emirates NBD forecasts inflation of 2.9% by year-end but said risks to that projection were tilted to the upside, given lingering pressures in food and housing.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18961735/main1839.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Libya oil project on track for 2027 completion

    24 August 2026

     

    The project to develop a workers’ camp at Libya’s Erawin oil field is on track for completion next year, according to industry sources.

    The project, estimated to be worth about $50m, is being executed by the Libyan oil services company Al-Saraya Al-Hamara, headquartered in the city of Sebha.

    The Libyan company was awarded the contract in February 2025.

    The scope of the project includes:

    • Construction of an accommodation camp
    • Construction of the camp maintenance warehouse
    • Construction of the camp office
    • Construction of a fire brigade shelter
    • Construction of a kitchen and mess hall
    • Construction of a mosque
    • Construction of a laundry room
    • Construction of a clinic
    • Construction of parking facilities
    • Installation of a fire and gas system
    • Installation of a power generator
    • Construction of associated facilities

    The client on the project is Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company.

    Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company was established in Libya in 2013 and is wholly owned by Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation.

    The Erawin field development project is located about 800 kilometres south of Tripoli and 100km southwest of the El-Sharara field.

    Libya shipped its first cargo of crude from the Erawin oil field in November 2023.

    The shipment departed from Libya’s Zawiyah port and consisted of 600,000 barrels of crude.

    Australia-based Worley Parsons was appointed as the front-end engineering and design (feed) contractor for the early production facility project in 2019.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18953632/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp