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Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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Dominic Dudley

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    The ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait has sparked a regional pipeline project boom, as countries seek to diversify export routes for oil and gas.

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    Iraq is one of the region’s oil exporters that has been hit the hardest by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

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    At the same time, about 200,000 b/d was being exported via the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP) in the north of the country.

    In the wake of the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has increased the volumes being exported via the ITP and has boosted its crude exports by truck through Syria.

    Earlier this month, domestic news outlets reported that Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation was exporting 500,000 b/d through the ITP.

    The daily exports consist of 125,000 barrels of Kirkuk crude, 175,000-200,000 barrels of Kurdistan Region crude and about 200,000 barrels of Basra crude, according to the reports.

    The Basra oil reaches collection stations at Sarallu and Khurmala by truck and from there is pumped north to Ceyhan in Turkiye.

    The volume of crude exported from Iraq by truck to the Syrian port of Baniyas has risen significantly in recent months.

    In October, Youssef Qablawi, the chief executive of the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company, said that about 1,000 trucks were transporting fuel oil to Syria each day, with each truck carrying about 220 barrels.

    This represents exports of 220,000 b/d, which is a significant volume for Iraq, but transporting crude by truck is much more expensive than using a pipeline.

    Because of this, Iraq sees pipeline projects as a long-term solution to its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz and is rapidly pushing ahead with projects that are designed to replace exports currently transported by road, as well as increasing the volumes that can be exported via both Syria and Turkiye.

    Earlier this month, MEED reported that the governments of Iraq and Syria, state-owned oil companies and a consortium led by Qatar’s UrbaCon Contracting & Trading (UCC) were discussing the terms of a deal for four interconnected pipeline packages that are expected to have a total value of about $5bn.

    Stakeholders expect a contract to be signed before the end of the year that will make the UCC-led coalition the selected developer responsible for tendering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.

    The consortium includes US-based Chevron, investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

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    The proposed plan will use a fast-track framework to bring the pipelines online as quickly as possible.

    Red Sea route

    Iraq and Saudi Arabia are also considering reviving an old pipeline route between the Zubair oil field in Basra and the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

    Operations of this 1,568-kilometre (km) pipeline were halted in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the onset of the Gulf War.

    At the end of October, Saudi Arabia granted preliminary approval to revive the joint oil export pipeline project, according to a report published by Saudi Arabia’s Shafaq News, which cited anonymous sources.

    If the pipeline is reinstated, it could allow Iraq to export oil via the Red Sea, reducing its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

    The pipeline was originally built at a cost of more than $2.6bn and featured a large network of storage tanks and offshore loading terminals.

    Syrian strategy

    In addition to its involvement in Iraq’s strategic export pipeline project, Qatar’s UCC is developing a pipeline project in Syria that will increase the country’s ability to deal with future supply disruptions.

    On 30 September, UCC announced that it had , which will extend 186km between Homs and Aleppo.

    The 36-inch pipeline will have a transmission capacity of up to 11 million cubic metres a day of gas and will connect gas networks in Jordan to those in Turkiye via Syria.

    In its announcement, UCC said that the project is scheduled for completion within 22 months and will contribute to strengthening Syria’s gas infrastructure; enhancing the capacity of its gas transmission network; and supporting regional connectivity with Jordan, Turkiye and Lebanon.

    Hisham Al-Saleh, Syrian Petroleum Company’s deputy chief executive for the gas sector, has said that the project includes the installation of three compressors in Furqlus, which will allow gas to be transported in both directions between Turkiye and Jordan.

    Speaking to the state-owned Syrian Arab News Agency, he said that the project will add an estimated 8 million cubic metres of storage capacity to the Syrian gas network, providing greater flexibility in managing gas production and use.

    Egyptian ambitions

    Egypt is also ramping up pipeline project activity in order to increase the number of oil and gas links that it has with neighbouring countries.

    The North African nation has long had ambitions to try and become a major regional energy hub.

    These plans have been given a boost by the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which has reduced exports from nations like Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    Concerns about the reliability of exports from Iraq and the GCC have led to increased investment in oil and gas infrastructure in countries that are not reliant on these waterways to transport hydrocarbons.

    In recent months, significant progress has been made on an integrated project that was launched to export offshore gas reserves in Cyprus via Egyptian energy infrastructure.

    In October, Italian oil and gas company Eni signed the main EPC and drilling contracts for the project, which will develop the Cronos field.

    The project includes contracts with several companies that will develop infrastructure in both Egypt and Cyprus.

    The awards include a $170m contract that has been won by Egypt’s Petrojet for a new onshore gas pipeline in Egypt that will help to transport gas to Egypt’s Damietta liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.

    Separately, US-based Baker Hughes signed a contract for the design, procurement and construction of subsea production systems, including associated equipment and control systems.

    In September, it was announced that US-headquartered McDermott will carry out offshore work for the project, including the transportation, installation and connection of subsea pipelines and equipment.

    The Cronos development project will significantly increase the volume of gas being imported into Egypt, where it can be exported as LNG as well as helping to meet domestic demand.

    On top of the major pipeline project allowing the importation of gas from Cyprus, Cairo is also looking at other regional pipeline projects, including gas links to Libya.

    In a statement released earlier this month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said that a Libyan team will ​visit ⁠Cairo soon to continue technical talks about the gas pipelines, as well as other energy projects, with Egypt’s petroleum and electricity ministers.

    Pipeline problems

    While the planned oil pipeline projects in Iraq are seen as a possible solution to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, they are also likely to face problems relating to the importation of necessary equipment that would normally be shipped through the waterway.

    The Common Seawater Supply Project, designed to bring water from the sea to inject into oil fields, is behind schedule, largely because of problems importing the pipeline segments through the strait.

    This issue could plague other planned pipeline projects in Iraq if the disruption to shipping continues, forcing contractors to use other, more costly, import routes.

    Challenging conditions

    Even when Iraq’s major export pipeline projects are completed, they may fail to resolve the country’s oil export problems to the extent many are expecting.

    While the export pipelines will go some way towards diversifying away from reliance on exports through waterways where oil and gas tankers are vulnerable to militant attacks, many industry insiders say Iraq could just be replacing one vulnerable export route with another.

    Oil pipelines in the Middle East and North Africa region have a long history of suffering attacks and often stretch long distances through remote regions where they are difficult to defend.

    Ultimately, it is likely that finding a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict will be the only way that Iraq can reliably increase its oil exports in the long term.

     

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    Wil Crisp