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Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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Dominic Dudley

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  • GCC projects market holds its nerve

    1 November 2026

     

    The war in the Gulf is now inflicting deep damage on the region’s economies. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts contraction in every GCC state except Oman in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 3.3%, after 4.6% growth in 2025, and the UAE’s by 3.9%, after 6.2% growth.

    The IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s by 15.6% and Bahrain’s by 11.3%, as energy and transport disruption cuts exports. Oman, with routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, is forecast to grow by 4.1%.

    The fund has cut its 2026 forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 2.2 percentage points since April, to a contraction of 0.3%, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had previously assumed. The revision for Saudi Arabia is 6.4 percentage points. The IMF now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions broadly by October 2027.

    There is little sign of an early end to hostilities. On 10 October, a Houthi-attributed strike on a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Airport operations were suspended and several international airlines cancelled flights.

    Yet the region’s projects market is holding up far better than its economies. Data from MEED Projects shows that contract awards in 2026 have proved resilient, with clients across the GCC continuing to commit capital to new schemes.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies

    Resilient awards

    The UAE leads the regional market for a second consecutive year, with the value of contract awards 6.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. Oman and Kuwait are also running ahead of last year’s pace, despite the IMF’s forecast that Kuwait’s economy will contract by about a sixth.

    Saudi Arabia has awarded $68.8bn of contracts so far this year, 13% less than in the same period of 2025. Given that the kingdom has been the main target of the Houthi campaign, and was already revising its spending priorities before the conflict, the decline is modest.

    The comparison is against a high base. The past three years have seen unprecedented GCC capital expenditure, supported by higher oil prices, residential demand and national vision programmes. More than three quarters has been concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    The gap between economic output and project spending reflects the nature of the projects market. Governments and state-linked entities can sustain capital budgets through a downturn using reserves and borrowing. GDP contraction, by contrast, reflects lost oil and gas exports, tourism and trade.

    The UAE’s performance this year has been driven by the gas and transport sectors, which have recorded the strongest growth. Construction, the country’s largest sector, has declined as the real estate market has cooled.

    Abu Dhabi has been the standout performer. Contract awards in the capital are up 35% on the same period of last year, with growth across the construction, gas, oil and transport sectors.

    Public spending is a central reason for that resilience. Fitch Ratings expects Abu Dhabi’s spending to rise by 19% this year, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP, to support the non-oil economy. Data from the Central Bank of the UAE shows consolidated government capital expenditure rose to AED18.6bn ($5.1bn) in Q1 2026 from
    AED2bn in Q1 2025.

    Fitch expects UAE infrastructure and government-related entity capital spending to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, both to strengthen resilience against future conflicts and stimulate the economy. Emirates have already accelerated tendering on several projects.

    Transport remains a priority. Plans include further sections of the national passenger rail network, a high-speed rail link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a light rail system in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai Metro Gold Line. The $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport in Dubai is moving towards delivery with the award of the first major construction packages.

    Economic headwinds

    Both the IMF and Fitch expect a strong rebound once the strait reopens. The IMF forecasts 2027 growth of 7.7% in the UAE, 7.9% in Saudi Arabia, 18.8% in Qatar and 17.1% in Kuwait. Fitch forecasts UAE non-oil growth of 6.1% next year. Paul Gamble, senior director at Fitch, cautioned that prolonged insecurity “will call into question logistical advantages” that underpin the UAE’s growth model.

    Beneath the headline award totals, there are warning signs. Regional contract awards performed well between March and June, but the value of work awarded in recent months has dropped sharply compared with the same months of 2025. According to MEED Projects, the main cause is a fall in the number of tenders being issued, particularly in real estate.

    The timing is significant. The strong period included the April ceasefire, when clients appear to have pressed ahead expecting a short conflict. Tendering slowed as hostilities resumed. In July, Iranian attacks reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, while Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia began.

    The pattern suggests conflict fatigue may be setting in, with clients deferring projects amid a war with no clear end date. As tendering is a leading indicator, the impact on awards is likely to become more visible in coming months.

    In Saudi Arabia, monthly performance has been mixed as the market adjusts to revised spending priorities and the regional conflict. Most sectors are up on last year, with the exception of power and water, which has struggled in 2026, possibly as a result of overbuilding in the past three years. The kingdom’s gigaprojects have continued their retreat. Awards peaked at $31.7bn in 2023 and fell to $14.4bn in 2025. The total so far in 2026 is $9.4bn, most of it for work at Qiddiya, Diriyah and Rua Al-Madinah.

    The GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years

    Dubai slowdown

    The clearest signal of the conflict’s impact on the projects market comes from Dubai. The emirate’s market performed strongly until May. Since then, activity has been subdued, and contract awards for the year to date are 0.6% lower than in the same period of 2025.

    The main cause is a decline in residential contract awards. Data from Bayut and the Dubai Land Department shows a marked fall in the value of off-plan sales since late February, when the war began. Residential construction awards have fallen in step, with no sign of the time lag that would normally be expected.

    Third-quarter figures from Savills confirm the trend. Residential transactions fell 38% year on year to 34,500, and transaction value dropped 46% to AED70.8bn ($19.3bn) from AED132.2bn. The decline was concentrated in the off-plan segment, where value fell to AED45.7bn in Q3 from AED61.3bn in Q2, while ready-market value rose to AED25.1bn from AED21.3bn.

    Developers have sharply reduced new launches. Savills recorded about 5,000 units launched in Q3, taking the total for the year to date to about 50,000, roughly 64% below the same period of 2025. Fewer launches mean fewer construction contracts, which explains why residential awards have fallen so quickly. More than 525,000 units are scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, which Fitch says could add pressure to a sector accounting for 8% of non-oil GDP if population growth weakens.

    Escaping Hormuz

    The conflict is also generating new project demand. Saudi Arabia is prioritising ports and transport infrastructure on the Red Sea coast, along with new pipelines to the Red Sea and to Oman. The UAE is developing ports and transport links to the east coast and Oman, and additional pipelines to Fujairah. Fitch anticipates new and expanded road, rail, pipeline and port infrastructure in Oman and Saudi Arabia as GCC states seek routes that bypass the strait.

    The IMF’s forecasts underline the value of those routes. It describes Saudi Arabia as “somewhat less affected” than its neighbours because of its more diversified export routes, while Oman is the only GCC state forecast to grow this year. Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu in September show that Red Sea infrastructure is not beyond reach, however. Defence spending is rising in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and repair and rehabilitation work will add to the pipeline once hostilities end.

    The long-term fundamentals remain strong: the GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years, about half of it in Saudi Arabia. Many of the kingdom’s priorities are tied to fixed dates, with Riyadh hosting the World Expo in 2030 and Saudi Arabia hosting the Fifa World Cup in 2034.

    The capacity to fund this pipeline depends on oil revenues. MEED’s assessment is that crude prices must remain above $70-$80 a barrel for spending levels to be maintained. With exports through Hormuz disrupted, the volume of oil Gulf producers can move to market matters as much as the price.

    The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies. The question for the final quarter is whether the slowdown in tendering is a temporary pause or the start of a sustained retreat. If the IMF’s assumption of a March 2027 reopening of the strait holds, clients will be setting their 2027 budgets with a rebound in sight. If it slips, the resilience of contract awards will face a sterner test. 

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  • Ashghal tenders Mekeines-Umm Bab link road

    30 October 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract for the design and construction of the Mekeines to Umm Bab Link Road and associated infrastructure.

    The tender was issued on 29 October, with a bid submission deadline of 22 December.

    The scope comprises:

    • Highway works, including main carriageways, access roads, grade-separated ramps, junctions and tie-ins to existing networks
    • Dedicated non-motorised user facilities, footpaths and shared-use cycle paths
    • Structural installations, including camel underpasses, a QatarEnergy culvert and gateway monumentation
    • Extensive dry and wet utilities, encompassing Kahramaa potable water and electrical transmission networks, surface water drainage, street lighting and dedicated communication networks for Ooredoo, the Qatar National Broadband Network and the Qatar Armed Forces

    Under the scope of work, the appointed contractor will execute full design verification and turnkey construction under Ashghal’s standard Building and Engineering Design and Build General Conditions of Contract (2018 Edition) on a lump-sum basis. Engineering subconsultants must hold Grade 1 or International classification with the Ministry of Municipality across civil, architectural, mechanical and electrical engineering disciplines.

    The contract stipulates an execution period of 1,260 calendar days (3.5 years) from the commencement date, followed by a 400-day maintenance liability period. 

      The project is open to local and international contractors classified as Grade A in roads specialisation by Qatar’s Ministry of Finance (MoF).

      Foreign firms may participate independently or within a joint venture, provided the joint venture leader holds the requisite classification, by registering through the MoF e-procurement portal with attested equivalent certification from their home countries.

      The planned corridor is located within Al-Rayyan Municipality across Zones 82 to 84 in the Al-Sheehaniya area.

      At its eastern end, the link road begins about 40 kilometres southwest of central Doha, tying into the Salwa Road Interchange 42. At the western terminus, it connects to the roundabout adjacent to Umm Bab on the Abu Samra to Dukhan road (Route 39). 

      The link road serves as a critical logistics corridor connecting western settlements, residential districts and industrial installations, including concession areas operated by QatarEnergy.

      The western 7.5km of the alignment passes directly through the QatarEnergy District, where the corridor runs parallel to active oil and gas pipelines and includes a designated gateway monument.

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    • Contractors prepare bids for Petro Rabigh bottom-of-the-barrel project

      30 October 2026

       

      Contractors are preparing proposals for Saudi Arabia’s Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Company (Petro Rabigh) for a major project to increase output and improve the efficiency of its integrated refining and petrochemicals complex in Rabigh, on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast.

      Petro Rabigh’s downstream complex, which is majority-owned by Saudi Aramco, includes a topping refinery with a 340,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) crude-distillation unit, a 47,000 b/d hydrotreater, a 12 million-cubic-feet-a-day hydrogen plant, a 75,000 b/d naphtha Merox unit and a 60,000 b/d kerosene Merox unit. The complex also includes supporting utilities, product tankage and a marine terminal.

      The main objective of the bottom-of-the-barrel project is to convert low-value, high-sulphur fuel oil and heavy-residue streams – which account for about 20% to 22% of refinery output – into higher-value, cleaner products, including diesel and lighter distillates.

      Petro Rabigh aims to achieve residue-conversion capacity of about 64,000 to 75,000 b/d by adding integrated fuel-oil upgrading and diesel-treatment units.

      The company issued the main tender for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works earlier this year. Contractors have until 19 November to submit proposals, sources told MEED.

      The following companies are understood to be among those bidding for the project:

      • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
      • JGC Corporation (Japan)
      • Larsen & Toubro (India) / Technip Energies (France)
      • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)

      The overall scope of work on the project covers the construction of the following units:

      • A light-naphtha isomerisation unit
      • A deasphalting and dewaxing unit
      • An ebullated-bed processing unit
      • A sulphur block, comprising sulphur-recovery, acid-gas-removal, sour-water-stripping and sulphur-forming units
      • Sales-gas allocation facilities and associated pipeline works
      • Utilities outside battery limits
      • Auxiliary piping modifications
      • Utility and hydrocarbon tie-ins

      Petro Rabigh appointed Australia-headquartered Worley last year to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed) work for the bottom-of-the-barrel project.

      MEED also reported that Petro Rabigh appointed Worley to provide engineering and project-management consultancy (PMC) services for the project in the first quarter of this year.

      Under the contract, Worley will carry out engineering studies and PMC functions. It will also support the development of cost estimates, project-specific execution procedures and technical procedures in line with Saudi Aramco guidelines. The work covers both the design-basis scoping-paper stage and the subsequent feed stage.

      Petro Rabigh will draw on Worley’s expertise in design, procurement and processing technologies, including light-naphtha isomerisation; vacuum-residue processing through deasphalting and dewaxing; an ebullated-bed configuration integrated with the diesel-hydrotreating section; and unconverted-oil hydrotreatment.

      Worley recently confirmed its contract award from Petro Rabigh, saying it will deliver engineering, project management, procurement support and related consultancy services for projects across its client’s portfolio.

      The scope includes developing design-basis documents, conducting technical evaluations, preparing cost estimates, supporting feed tender packages and providing detailed engineering and execution-phase support as projects advance through development and delivery.

      The services will support the evaluation and development of potential new facilities and infrastructure across the complex, including process units, utilities, sulphur recovery facilities and associated infrastructure.

      “The work will help Petro Rabigh advance future projects aimed at enhancing the long-term value and performance of its refining and petrochemicals operations,” Worley said in a statement on 28 October.

      Separately, Petro Rabigh awarded US-based KBR a 10-year maintenance contract in February to support its polymer plants in Rabigh.

      KBR’s Technology Led Industrial Solutions business line will execute the operations and maintenance contract, sources told MEED. The business operates within the Houston-headquartered company’s Technology Solutions portfolio.

      In March 2024, Petro Rabigh also awarded KBR a similar five-year asset-condition-monitoring contract. Under that programme, KBR is providing predictive-maintenance services at Petro Rabigh’s main plant.

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      Indrajit Sen
    • Contractors submit Riyadh Expo KSA pavilion bids

      30 October 2026

       

      Contractors submitted bids on 25 October for a contract to design and build the Saudi Arabia pavilion at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

      The facility will include exhibition halls, VIP and protocol areas, event and performance spaces, meeting rooms, food and retail outlets, and back-of-house facilities.

      The pavilion will host exhibitions, cultural and commercial showcases and official events throughout the six-month expo.

      External public realm works are also included.

      Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, issued the main tender on 19 May, as MEED exclusively reported.

      Earlier this week, ERC appointed UK-based Mace as procurement advisory consultant for Expo 2030 Riyadh, supporting procurement activities across the programme.

      Under the appointment, Mace will provide procurement services and advise on the management and delivery of procurement activities, with the aim of supporting the expo’s wider programme objectives.

      Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from October 2030 to March 2031 with the theme Foresight for Tomorrow, with host authorities projecting approximately 42 million visits.

      The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event.

      Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site is located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

      The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

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      Yasir Iqbal
    • Oman announces $790m industrial investment deals

      30 October 2026

      Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones has signed 28 investment agreements worth more than RO304m ($790m) for new projects and expansions across the country’s special economic zones, free zones and industrial cities.

      The agreements cover more than 2 million square metres (sq m) of land and span industrial manufacturing, food production, logistics, recycling and commercial activities.

      About $383.6m of the investment has been allocated to industrial cities operated by the Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn). Sohar Free Zone accounted for $152m, followed by the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad) with $143.1m, Salalah Free Zone with $85.6m and Khazaen Economic City with more than $27m.

      The projects are expected to support Oman’s efforts to diversify its economy, expand industrial production and attract private investment in line with Oman Vision 2040.

      Investment deals

      In Sohar Industrial City, Atlas Steel will invest more than $291.1m in a plant producing iron and steel products on a site of about 440,000 sq m.

      Fujian Mancheng Industries & Investment will invest $52m in a ceramics facility covering more than 241,000 sq m. Other investments in Madayn’s industrial cities include an $18.2m phosphate and nitrogen fertiliser plant planned by Gulf Company for Organic and Biological Fertilisers in Raysut, as well as projects involving structural metal products, paper and corrugated cardboard, and oil and gas equipment and services in Raysut, Ibri and Nizwa.

      In Sohar Free Zone, Sohar Automotive & Advanced Industries Company will invest $98.8m in an automobile assembly complex covering 317,000 sq m. The complex aims to attract vehicle manufacturers, automotive supply-chain companies and advanced-manufacturing businesses.

      Voltamp High Voltage Transformers has announced a $39m investment in a plant that will produce power and electrical-distribution transformers for regional and international markets.

      Lalan Middle East will invest a further $3.9m to expand its medical-device manufacturing facility.

      ALSO READ: Oman’s Madayn prepares $637m investment drive

      In Sezad, Al-Jazir Feed Plant will invest $104m in a shrimp-feed facility to support an integrated shrimp-farming project.

      In Salalah Free Zone, Al-Nawras Industries will invest $50m in a steel-structures manufacturing facility, while Integrated Gypsum Company will invest $20m in gypsum-products production. Marai Dhofar will invest $15.6m in the production of Italian cheeses and other dairy products.

      Projects in Khazaen Economic City include a plant by Aleemit International Services to manufacture electric-vehicle chargers and components, with an investment of more than $8.8m, and a $6.5m facility by Joger Modular Building Technologies to produce precast-concrete building components.

      Additional investments in Khazaen include construction materials, ready-mix concrete, industrial units, logistics facilities and warehouses.

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      Indrajit Sen