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Al Sudani struggles to maintain Iraq’s political stability

9 May 2024

 

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Al Sudani is now more than halfway through his term. While there have been some notable economic developments, such as the massive energy deal with TotalEnergies signed in July 2023, his main accomplishment may well be maintaining a fragile political settlement.

When he took office in late October 2022, it ended a year of tense political infighting following the 2021 election. The next national poll is expected in October 2025, but while the government itself may appear secure, Iraqi politics is as turbulent as ever.

The Council of Representatives has not had a permanent speaker since November, when Mohammed Al Halbousi was dismissed by the Federal Supreme Court and forced to step away from parliament. Mohsen Al Mandalawi was named acting speaker, but fierce debate continues over handing the job to anyone else on a more formal basis.

The latest figure to be proposed is Salem Al Issawi, who is backed by three Sunni blocs but opposed by the largest Sunni group, Al-Halbousi’s Taqaddum (Progress) party.

Under Iraq’s ‘muhasasa’ system of dividing the political spoils along religious and ethnic lines, the speaker’s job goes to a Sunni politician, while the federal presidency goes to a Kurd and the prime minister is Shia.

Al Sudani is now also facing a fresh challenge on the domestic front in the shape of a mooted return to the political scene by rival Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, who announced his retirement from frontline politics in August 2022. Earlier that year, he had pulled all his MPs from parliament, effectively handing power to Al Sudani’s Coordination Framework.

Al Sadr now looks set to change course. On 10 April, he renamed his organisation from the Sadrist Movement to the National Shiite Movement and further statements since then point to a possible return to the electoral battlefield. Given his past ability to mobilise large numbers of followers, he could have a significant impact on the next election and events leading up to it.

“Al Sadr maintains strong support from parts of the street, but it may prove difficult for him to reassert himself after ceding control over powerful institutions to the Coordination Framework,” said Winthrop Rodgers, an independent analyst focused on Iraq. “However, his return will certainly complicate dynamics within Shia politics.”

His likely return will also test Iranian influence on Baghdad. Tehran has been able to exert huge influence over Iraqi politics through its allied Shia politicians and militia groups, but Al Sadr has been the most prominent Shia figure to resist such ties in recent years.

Al Sudani has, though, been reaching out to other neighbours, too. In April, he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was making his first trip to the country since 2011. The visit resulted in more than 20 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including one covering the contentious issue of cross-border water resources, as well as security and trade. However, there was no sign of progress on re-opening an oil export pipeline from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey.

Trade route

Under Al Sudani, Baghdad and Ankara have also managed to get Abu Dhabi and Doha on board with the Development Road initiative, a $17bn plan to develop a 1,200km trade route from the Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and, from there, on to Europe. The UAE had previously thrown its weight behind the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor initiative, launched in New Delhi in September – but that plan involves using Israeli ports.

“In light of the Gaza war, a trade route through Israel is unlikely to be something that many Gulf rulers want to be too closely associated with at the moment,” said one regional analyst.

For the Iraqi trade route to build up real momentum, the security situation around the country will need to improve further. While the Islamic State has been largely defeated, other pro-Iran groups continue to be active, including several that have banded together as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI).

Many of that umbrella group’s recent actions have been directed against Israel, including a cruise missile attack on 2 May, which targeted Tel Aviv. Such actions hold the potential for Iraq to be drawn into any expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, perhaps as a proxy battleground between Iran and Israel.

Other apparent IRI attacks have been directed at local targets, such as a drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region in late April, which killed four Yemeni workers and forced UAE-based operator Dana Gas to suspend operations for several days.

Kurdistan election in doubt

Kurdistan, meanwhile, has other all-but-intractable political problems. Most recently, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) insisted it will not participate in the regional parliamentary election planned for 10 June – two years after it should have been held.

That stance was prompted by a Federal Supreme Court ruling in February that ended the practice of reserving 11 seats for minority groups including Turkmen, Christians and Armenians after ruling that the quota was “unconstitutional”. The MPs holding those seats had generally voted in step with the KDP – something that led its rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and others to file a court case arguing that the communities were no longer properly represented.

The KDP has emerged as the largest party from every election in the region over the past two decades and its pledge to sit out this election creates a thorny issue for Baghdad, which is now in charge of the process – after the Supreme Court also ruled in February that oversight of the elections should be handed over from the Kurdish authorities to the federal Independent High Electoral Commission.

“If the KDP does not participate in the election, the Kurdistan Regional Government will effectively cease to function as a cohesive political entity; if Baghdad gives into the KDP’s gamesmanship, it sets a bad precedent that a single party can prevent an election if it feels it will be disadvantaged,” said Rodgers.

No solution has been found as yet. Kurdistan region president Nechirvan Barzani was in Tehran on 6 May, where he held talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, among others. Trade and cross-border security issues were at the top of the agenda, but some reports suggested Barzani had also tried to persuade Tehran to put pressure on the PUK to agree to a delay to the June poll.

On 8 May, a further element of chaos was leant to the proceedings when the High Electoral Commission suspended preparation for the Kurdish election in response to a lawsuit filed by the KDP over the distribution of constituencies.

Together, the prospect of a major rival Shia bloc returning to Baghdad politics ahead of the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election and the risk of the breakdown of the political process in Kurdistan threaten to disrupt the relative political calm that Al Sudani has worked to cultivate. Handling the shifting political landscape will require astuteness.

Image: مكتب اعلامي لرئيس الوزراء, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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Dominic Dudley

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    When the first missiles and drones were fired at the GCC on 28 February, the region’s economic story pivoted abruptly, from long-term vision-building to near-term resilience.

    The conflict is now the Gulf’s most consequential economic stress test in a generation. It is challenging the safe haven premium that underpins capital inflows, while disrupting the physical networks that keep the region’s economies running, from energy exports and shipping lanes to airports and tourism.

    Over the past two decades, GCC governments have worked to pair diversification with an image of stability: open economies, predictable regulation and security that felt, to many investors, close to non-negotiable.

    This crisis has reopened an older question last asked during the 1990 to 1991 Gulf War: not simply how fast the Gulf can grow, but whether it can remain investable and operational under sustained security risk. The early evidence is mixed and still emerging.

    Energy infrastructure has been damaged and supply chains have been paralysed, but other parts of the economy, such as retail and construction, have continued to operate largely as normal.

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    The clearest and most quantifiable example of the economic toll came when Iranian strikes targeted Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar. The damage reported by QatarEnergy is significant. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-producing trains 4 and 6, which account for about 17% of Qatar’s total LNG exports, need repairing. The expected revenue loss is $20bn a year.

    In a statement, QatarEnergy president and CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said the repairs will take three to five years to complete, underlining the long-term impact on the Qatari economy. JP Morgan estimates that Qatar’s GDP could contract by 9% this year.

    Qatar is not the only GCC state to have suffered damage to its energy infrastructure. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have all had energy assets targeted.

    In addition to damage caused by missiles or drones, logistics problems triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are having a material impact. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has implemented a controlled shutdown of reduction lines 1, 2 and 3, one example of how supply chain paralysis is spreading into industry.

    By idling 19% of its production capacity, approximately 308,000 tonnes a year, Alba is attempting to preserve raw material inventory and prioritise the operational stability of its newer, more efficient lines 4, 5 and 6. However, the macro implications for Manama are severe. Alba contributes 12% to Bahrain’s GDP, with the broader aluminium sector, a vital driver of the kingdom’s Economic Vision 2030, accounting for over 15%.

    The conflict is now the Gulf’s most consequential economic stress test in a generation

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    In response, Dubai has begun reviewing support packages for the sector, including fee relief and the removal of penalties for delayed payments. This stance mirrors Dubai’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, a crisis the emirate ultimately navigated well. The plan is that an initial focus on resilient source markets, such as Russia and Africa, will allow the tourism sector to move onto the road to recovery.

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    Early indicators from brokers and market analysts point to falling transaction volumes. The narrative of safety and guaranteed returns that fuelled the post-pandemic boom, and attracted billions in overseas wealth, has been dented. Investors are increasingly seeking reassurance that their capital is not anchored in a conflict zone.

    Rather than cutting headline prices, which would damage long-term community values, some developers are offering registration waivers, 0.5% monthly payment plans and extended grace periods.

    More than 15,000 flights were cancelled at seven major regional airports in the first week of March

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    With airports in Bahrain, Riyadh, Kuwait, Dubai and Abu Dhabi all targeted during the conflict, the Middle East’s aviation sector is grappling with unprecedented operational friction. According to Fitch Ratings, more than 15,000 flights were cancelled at seven major regional airports in the first week of March alone.

    The main international hubs, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, are facing a sharp spike in operating costs. Rerouting around restricted airspace requires longer flight paths, additional technical stops and increased expenses for crew overtime. While carriers have buffers through fuel hedging, ranging from 50% to 80%, the sheer volume of refunds, vouchers, and accommodation for 1.5 million displaced passengers is weighing on balance sheets.

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    If the conflict remains short-lived, the impact on annual profitability may be temporary. But a prolonged period of airspace instability would test the flexibility of the region’s transport infrastructure at a time when aviation is meant to be a central pillar of growth.

    Banking support

    Underpinning all sectors is the banking system, and the response from regional regulators has been swift. The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has approved a Financial Institution Resilience Package that aims to both reassure and protect the economy.

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    The outlook across the GCC is not uniform. S&P Global Ratings has flagged Bahrain and Qatar as more exposed to potential capital outflows. In a severe stress scenario, the region could see domestic deposit outflows of up to $307bn. Bahrain’s retail banks are under scrutiny due to recent growth in external debt and thinner funding buffers.

    The risk of non-performing loans also looms. S&P suggests that, in a high-stress scenario, total losses across the GCC’s 45 largest banks could reach $37bn, with the logistics, tourism and real estate sectors bearing the brunt. The banking sector is the ultimate backstop. While it is well-placed to navigate the conflict, much will depend on how long the economic impact lasts.

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    That possibility will be a hurdle for investment decisions to overcome. The test for the region’s leaders is no longer only about building the world’s tallest buildings or largest smelters. It is about proving they can protect them. 

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    Progress on Iraq’s project to develop the strategically important Akkas gas field has been disrupted by security issues related to the US and Israel’s ongoing war with Iran, according to industry sources.

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