Iraq electricity sector makes slow progress
9 May 2024
Latest news from Iraq's power and water sectors:
> Iraq plans new Baiji power plant
> Decision imminent on Iraq waste-to-energy project
> Iraq discusses nuclear projects with global watchdog
> Siemens Energy and SLB sign Iraq flare gas-to-power deal
> PowerChina in talks for Basra desalination plant
> US seeks firms for Baghdad power plant package
> Iraq plans green hydrogen project at refinery
> Iraq approves long-term grid expansion
In late March, Iraq’s Electricity Ministry struck a five-year gas supply deal with National Iranian Gas Company for up to 50 million cubic metres a day (cm/d), contingent on the needs of Iraqi power stations, in exchange for oil and gasoline.
The deal offers a lifeline to Iraq’s deteriorating electricity sector and replaces an existing agreement whereby contractual volumes were theoretically set at 70 million cm/d for summer and 45 million cm/d for winter.
The two countries signed the deal following nearly three months of longer-than-usual power outages in Iraq, and after Baghdad settled part of the multibillion-dollar debt it owes Iran. The power cuts occurred due to a drastic reduction in Irani gas supply, which dipped to 10 million cm/d and wiped out 4GW from Iraq’s grid.
The deal is a compromise for both countries. It allows Iraq some breathing space to implement projects to reduce its dependence on Iran’s gas exports – a long-running and elusive objective among Iraq’s policymakers and its allies in the GCC states and the US.
The crisis should prompt Iraq to push ahead with projects to boost domestic gas production and build solar power plants, according to the Electricity Ministry.
Supply and demand mismatch
There has been a persistent mismatch between supply and demand in Iraq’s electricity sector, with peak demand during the summer months outstripping available capacity by a sizeable margin.
In recent years, the deficit has returned during the winter when heating requirements rise.
With a few exceptions, however, the procurement process or negotiations for additional generation capacity have been proceeding slowly, leaving a gap that is typically addressed by diesel generators.
Iraq aspires to build 12,000MW of solar capacity by the end of the decade, which is nearly half its known available capacity today.
The Electricity Ministry has signed deals with several companies to develop sizeable solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity over the past two to three years in line with this objective. Yet, despite regular pronouncements that the construction phase for these projects is about to start, none have reached final investment decisions (FIDs) or the construction phase so far.
The Electricity Ministry remains the dominant client for these projects, although the National Investment Commission (NIC) has been an active participant, particularly in bilateral or public-private partnership projects.
For example, the UAE’s Masdar signed a deal to develop 2GW of solar capacity in Iraq with the NIC. The commission is also procuring a contract to develop the country’s first waste-to-energy (WTE) project in coordination with the Municipality of Baghdad, the Electricity Ministry and the Environment Ministry.
Located in the Al Nahrawan area of Baghdad Governorate, the planned WTE project will have the capacity to treat 3,000 tonnes of waste a day and generate nearly 80 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity.
Other companies that have committed to develop solar PV projects in Iraq include Power China, which has pledged to develop solar PV projects with a combined total capacity of 2GW, and France’s Total Energies, which has committed to build a 1,000MW solar farm in Artawi.
The solar project in Artawi is a small part of a $27bn package that TotalEnergies is developing in partnership with QatarEnergy. The package involves the development of a common seawater supply project and oil and gas fields in Iraq.
Awarded projects
As earlier cited, there are some exceptions to the endemic start-stop mode for Iraq’s power generation and distribution projects.
For example, Germany’s Siemens Energy and the US-based GE have ongoing projects that include retrofitting or upgrading existing gas turbine power stations or building new substations as part of agreements to help rebuild Iraq and support its goal of reducing carbon emissions.
Earlier this month, the Electricity Ministry signed a preliminary agreement with Germany’s Siemens Energy and US firm SLB, formerly Schlumberger, to explore the development of a power generation plant using flare gas.
According to Siemens Energy Middle East managing director Dietmar Siersdorfer, the planned flare gas-to-power project in southern Iraq will help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and capture value from gas that would otherwise be wasted.
The planned flare gas-to-power plant could have a generation capacity of up to 2,000MW.
In January this year, China-based Oriental International is understood to have signed a contract to convert a single-cycle unit at the Baghdad South power plant complex into a combined-cycle power plant.
In April, the Electricity Ministry awarded another Chinese company, China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC), a second year of operation and maintenance contracts for the Salah Al Din gas-fired power plant.
CMEC was awarded the estimated $1bn contract to build the power plant in northern Iraq in 2011. After a series of delays and challenges, including the Isis uprising, the two 630MW capacity units began operating last year.
In December last year, Siemens Energy also signed a contract to deliver five high-voltage substations on a turnkey basis in Iraq. The 400-kilovolt substations, each with a capacity of 1,500MW, will be installed in Baghdad, Diyala, Najaf, Karbala and Basra.
Similarly, the US’s preoccupation with helping wean Iraq off Iran’s gas and electricity imports has spurred projects to interconnect Iraq’s grid with its neighbour Saudi Arabia through the GCC grid and Jordan.
In October last year, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Prince Saud Bin Naif Bin Abdulaziz, inaugurated the GCC grid's Iraq connection, which had been under development for several years. The 295-kilometre power transmission network will have a total transmission capacity of 1,800MW, with an initial phase expected to supply 500MW of electricity to Iraq.
Future projects
In February this year, Electricity Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa said the government had approved funds for the long-term plans to expand the country’s power transmission and distribution network with Siemens Energy’s help.
Mousa said the ministry “received funds for long-term plans to develop the electricity sector in 2023 … the three-year budget approved in 2023 also includes funds this year and in 2025”.
In early May, it was reported that the Electricity Ministry held discussions with Qatar’s UCC Holding to develop a 2,100MW gas-fired power plant in Baiji. The plant will replace a power station that was damaged during the war.
It is unclear if the project is part of a previous agreement between UCC Holding and NIC to develop two power plants with a capacity of 2,400MW in Iraq.
A new 2,000MW gas-fired power plant is also being proposed in Basra, which is expected to receive gas from the nearby West Qurna 1 and West Qurna 2 oil fields.
As it is, several projects are waiting for final approvals, such as the gas-fired 2,800MW Khairat independent power producer, which has yet to reach FID over two years after the contract was awarded.
Going nuclear
Project delays and indecision in Iraq do not appear to narrow down the options for future power generation expansion.
In March, it was reported that senior Iraq and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials had discussed Iraq’s plans for a possible nuclear energy programme, including small modular reactors.
According to the nuclear watchdog, discussions included maintaining strict adherence to non-proliferation norms.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi said his agency has committed to supporting the foundations of what should be an entirely peaceful programme in Iraq.
Iraq, for its part, is considering nuclear energy to enable greater energy security and for water desalination projects as part of the country’s plans for a more sustainable future.
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The combined market capitalisation of the MEED Top 100 largest listed companies in the Middle East and North Africa rose to $3.73tn in mid-May 2026, against $3.48tn a year earlier – a 7.2% gain that recovers most of the value lost in the prior two years’ editions. The aggregate is not the story.
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In the UAE, by contrast, Adnoc Gas has remained broadly flat at $66.7bn, with its Q1 2026 net income dropping 15% and conflict damage estimates indicating that full capacity will not be restored until 2027. Borouge meanwhile held, while Adnoc Drilling and Adnoc Distribution gained by 14% and 8%, respectively.
There was some slippage in the petrochemicals sub-cluster, with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) posting a net loss of $6.96bn and sliding 3%, alongside a 2% slide for the energy sector-adjacent Industries Qatar.
Banking and industry
The banking sector, which accounts for 33 of the 100 entries and 18% of the list by value, expanded by an aggregate 6.3% in absolute terms. Al-Rajhi Bank, the largest banking entry at $107.9bn, reported FY2025 net profit up 26% to SR24.8bn ($6.6bn); total assets passed SR1tn for the first time and Q1 2026 net profit rose a further 14%.
Emirates NBD, up 23% year-on-year to $47.1bn, reported FY2025 record profit before tax of AED29.8bn ($8.1bn) and likewise crossed AED1tn in total assets.
Kuwait Finance House also rose by 19%, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 19% to $28.7bn and Saudi National Bank 11%. Qatar National Bank stalled and slid 1%, while several smaller banks saw gains. Egypt’s Commercial International Bank rose 74% to $8.4bn off a depressed base, Jordan’s Arab Bank meanwhile rose 55%, Oman’s Bank Muscat by 52% and RakBank by 32%.
Several sectors have gained significantly owing to their direct exposure to the Iran conflict’s supply-chain repricing, including logistics, fertilisers and mining.
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Marsa Maroc, the Casablanca-listed port operator, also entered the list at $6.6bn, up 85% on an African expansion that spans 34 terminals across 20 ports following a Liberia management deal signed in February.
Adnoc Logistics rose 32% to $11.6bn, while Air Arabia, the Sharjah-based low-cost carrier, joined the list at $6.1bn as it absorbed redirected long-haul flows. Nakilat, the Qatari liquefied natural gas shipping operator, was the sector’s sole softener, down 12% on slower throughput.
Mining and fertiliser entries sit alongside the logistics gainers. Jordan Phosphate Mines is the cleanest single expression of the post-Hormuz repricing visible on the list – up 127% year on year to $13.2bn, as the World Bank’s April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook projects fertiliser prices to rise nearly 31% in 2026.
Maaden rose 23% to $65.3bn after FY2025 net profit jumped 156%, backed by record phosphate production; high aluminium output; and rising silver, copper and aluminium prices linked to artificial intelligence, data centre, solar and electric vehicle demand.
Morocco’s Managem also entered the list at $19.7bn, having almost tripled in value in the past two years on cobalt, silver and copper prices and African expansion.
Sabic Agri-Nutrients rose 44% on a 30% 2025 net profit increase, while Fertiglobe rose by 40% – both potentially anticipating a 60% forecasted rise in urea prices.
Property and other trends
The direction of the property and real estate sector has been uniformly downward. The Iran conflict has driven both a slump in UAE property sales and prices and a similar tourism-adjacent correction in Saudi Arabia. Both the Mecca-focused Umm Al-Qura and Jabal Omar development firms have seen their valuations slashed by more than a third, while Makkah Construction & Development slid by 15%.
The UAE’s Emaar Properties and Dar Al-Arkan and Qatar’s Ezdan Holding have also all seen slides of more than 15%. Kuwait’s Mabanee, which rose by 22%, is the one exception in the sector.
In Saudi Arabia’s mid-tier, Acwa Power shed 29% in value even as its revenue rose 18% and its net income 5.4%. Elm Company likewise shed 33%, Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib 19% and the Saudi Tadawul Group 21%.
Mouwasat Medical Services, MBC Group, Nahdi Medical and Saudi Logistics Services fell out of the list entirely on the same trajectory. Each had reported FY2025 earnings rises before the decline. What corrected was the valuation, not the operations.
Acwa Power’s trailing four-quarter average price-to-earnings ratio was 166x, and even after this year’s decline sits at 88x against the Saudi market average of 17.8x. Elm sits at 26x, Al-Habib at 33x, Saudi Tadawul Group at 42x – all rich by any comparable benchmark.
Many of these entries have fallen away from their peak valuations as the cooling of the gigaproject programme since early 2025 has undermined sentiment.
One example that sits on the same axis from the UAE side is Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), which fell by 28% from $95.3bn to $69.0bn despite a 6% net income rise, even as capital expenditure also expanded by 50%.
There are now nine entries from Morocco’s Casablanca bourse against six a year ago, with an aggregate value of $74.7bn, up from $50.8bn. Industrial contractor Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc,entered via a December 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Several Moroccan stocks have also slipped, however, including Taqa Morocco, down 42%; Maroc Telecom, down 18%; Banque Populaire, down 13%; and Bank of Africa, down 10%.
There has been a similarly divergent trend among 2024 IPO entrants. While OQ Exploration & Production rose 68% to $10.1bn and is now the largest stock on the Muscat Securities Market, the UAE’s Talabat – 2024’s second-largest IPO at $9.2bn – has corrected 33% to $6.1bn.
The Multiply Group has been replaced on the list through its November 2025 merger into 2PointZero Group, which now sits in the top 30 entries at $19.6bn.
Regional repricing
Four trends underpin the list’s 7.2% recovery. The conflict has repriced specific cohorts sharply higher – logistics up 44%, mining and fertilisers up 43%, the Yanbu refiners returning, and Aramco recovering to $181bn – with gains contingent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed.
Regional banks have maintained last year’s momentum, with assets crossing trillion-unit thresholds and loan books supported by project activity. Six names have posted double-digit gains that are unlikely to reverse if conditions normalise.
Saudi mid-tier stocks have corrected largely on valuation rather than operations, despite many reporting earnings growth through 2025, as confidence in gigaproject-driven growth has weakened. Property has also softened in the region as conflict has reduced routine and religious tourism.
The 12-month outlook depends on whether Hormuz reopens, whether Saudi mid-tier valuations stabilise, and whether banking expansion holds under broader repricing.
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Developers win deals for $3.5bn of Mecca projects
1 June 2026
The Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites has awarded six real estate development deals. The projects, which cover a total land area exceeding 2.7 million square metres (sq m), will require a total investment of SR13.3bn ($3.5bn).
The sites are located within the neighbourhoods of Jurhum South, Al-Khalidiyah, Al-Hajlah, Al-Hindawiyah East, Al-Hindawiyah South and Al-Hindawiyah West. The projects will be delivered as partnerships with domestic real estate developers, institutional investors and dedicated private investment funds.
A consortium consisting of Makkah Construction & Development Company, Umm Al-Qura for Development & Construction Company and Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company will develop the Hindawiya West and Hindawiya South districts, which have a combined area of nearly 1.15 million sq m, adjacent to the Masar Destination project. The consortium informed the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) that it received letters of award for the project on 31 May.
The initial cost of the project is estimated at SR6bn. Umm Al-Qura will act as the consortium leader and development manager, while Makkah Construction & Development Company will serve as the financial partner. The infrastructure works will be executed by Al-Rajhi United Real Estate Company as the technical partner, with the entire development financed through a private, closed-ended real estate investment fund overseen by a Capital Market Authority-licensed manager.
A consortium comprising First Avenue for Real Estate Development Company, Dar Al-Majed Real Estate Company and Rekaz Real Estate Company has been awarded the concession for the East Hindawiyah site. Located 1.8 kilometres from the Holy Grand Mosque, the 235,000 sq m plot is expected to cost SR2bn to develop, which includes land acquisition and foundational infrastructure. The development will be structured as a real estate investment fund managed by Jadwa Investment, with the ultimate goal of creating an integrated urban destination featuring retail, office, hospitality and residential components. The final contract signing for this deal is expected by 10 June 2026.
Ladun Investment Company, in partnership with Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company, has signed a deal for the Al-Khalidiyah district. With a targeted sales value exceeding SR6bn, the consortium will establish a closed-ended private real estate investment fund to execute extensive infrastructure works, subdivide the land plots, and handle subsequent marketing and sales. The detailed scope of works involves complete engineering designs, public park planning and utility coordination with entities such as National Water Company and Saudi Electricity Company, before a contract is signed by 9 June.
Saudi property dreams: Read the January 2026 MEED Business Review
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